Reading this made my blood boil

For all things Chicago Bears

Moderator: wab

User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12016
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1199 times
Been thanked: 2128 times

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2020/06/ ... -safeties/

Can someone who is a Chuck Pagano fan explain to me how you still back a guy that takes the games best free safety and moves him to strong safety? And let's career disappointment HHCD take the free safety spot over him? It's just DUMB, and ARROGANT.
User avatar
Moriarty
Hall of Famer
Posts: 6805
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:22 pm
Has thanked: 384 times
Been thanked: 688 times

That's such an inexplicable move.

Maybe Haha is better at FS than SS, but so is Eddie, and there's no way Haha's dropoff from FS to SS is anywhere near as big.
1999-2002: Mouth Off Sports Forum (RIP)
2002-2014: KFFL (RIP)
2014-2016: USAToday Fantasy Sports Forum (RIP)

Hello, my name is Moriarty. I have come to kill your website, prepare to die.
User avatar
Wounded Bear
MVP
Posts: 1032
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 4:13 pm
Has thanked: 12 times
Been thanked: 13 times

I’m not a Pagano fan. Last year was a big disappointment for me as far as the defense was concerned. Moving Eddie Jackson to SS is like moving K Mack to inside linebacker.

Wade Phillips is a much better defensive coordinator who is still available.
Image
The universe is under no obligation to make any sense to you...
Neil deGrasse Tyson
User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12016
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1199 times
Been thanked: 2128 times

OMG preaching to the choir bud! Wade Phillips with this roster would be awesome!
User avatar
Wounded Bear
MVP
Posts: 1032
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 4:13 pm
Has thanked: 12 times
Been thanked: 13 times

Wade Phillips consistently gives the Patriots troubles. Pagano plays checkers, Wade Phillips chess.
Image
The universe is under no obligation to make any sense to you...
Neil deGrasse Tyson
Johnny Bollocks
Journeyman
Posts: 105
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:21 pm
Has thanked: 112 times
Been thanked: 27 times

Seems like not so very long ago we were complaining that all we had on the roster were strong safeties.
User avatar
Kylo Bearen
Player of the Month
Posts: 324
Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:50 pm
Has thanked: 115 times
Been thanked: 54 times

Wounded Bear wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:14 pm Wade Phillips consistently gives the Patriots troubles. Pagano plays checkers, Wade Phillips chess.
Image
Richie
MVP
Posts: 1912
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:37 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 17 times

HHCD is not a star but he is far from a bust. He's a solid player.

I didn't care for the move but it didn't hurt us either. The secondary was far from an issue. The dominance dipped off because the inevitable turnover regression took place, Hicks got hurt, and our pass rush suffered because of it. Not because Eddie Jackson played SS instead of FS.
RichH55
Hall of Famer
Posts: 7942
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:23 pm
Has thanked: 511 times
Been thanked: 598 times

Richie wrote: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:12 pm HHCD is not a star but he is far from a bust. He's a solid player.

I didn't care for the move but it didn't hurt us either. The secondary was far from an issue. The dominance dipped off because the inevitable turnover regression took place, Hicks got hurt, and our pass rush suffered because of it. Not because Eddie Jackson played SS instead of FS.
The Turnover numbers were absolutely bound to fall.

But let me make this point: Moving perhaps the best Ballhawking FS in the game away from what he does best can only serve to exacerbate that
User avatar
Wounded Bear
MVP
Posts: 1032
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 4:13 pm
Has thanked: 12 times
Been thanked: 13 times

Richie wrote: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:12 pm
I didn't care for the move but it didn't hurt us either.
Really? Taking a playmaker like Eddie Jackson out of the position of making plays didn't hurt us?

So making interceptions or breaking up passes aren't valuable in determining the outcome of a game and having less of them doesn't hurt the team's performance?

That's news to me.
Image
The universe is under no obligation to make any sense to you...
Neil deGrasse Tyson
User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12016
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1199 times
Been thanked: 2128 times

Yea, it did hurt us Richie. And while you are right that turnovers were bound to drop after the historic 2018 season that Vic oversaw, that doesn't mean they should have dropped off a cliff like they and our sack numbers did. That point always gets missed in this conversation, when it's absolutely the centerpiece of it. Dismissing it all with a "2018 wasn't sustainable" waive off completely misses the point. SOME regression would have been ok and expected, falling off a cliff however is a different story.

There were a handful of things that happened:

1) We had a coaching/scheme change
2) Hicks got hurt and missed 3/4 of the season
3) We moved two key players out of their best position (Roquan and EJax) (see #1 above) both of whom had down years

What's really interesting is if you look at the advanced stats, you see we had a lot of "hurries" on the QB (we ranked 4th), but were middling (14th) in knockdowns and near bottom in sacks (24th). I really focus on sacks more than turnovers because they tend to drive turnovers and kill drives. And while turnovers have an element of luck to them, sacks don't, so I think sacks are a much better measure to look at from a year to year comparison. In 2018, we were 3rd in sacks with 50. In 2019, we dropped to 24th in sacks with just 32. You can't say that the sack numbers weren't sustainable like you can with the turnover numbers. I view the drop in turnovers as derivative from the drop in sacks. We dropped from 3rd to 24th in sacks, and we dropped from 1st to 22nd in turnovers, damn near perfect match.

Richie I'm curious how you explain the drop off in sacks w/o leaning on Hicks as your only answer?
User avatar
southdakbearfan
Head Coach
Posts: 4600
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:23 pm
Location: South Dakota
Has thanked: 763 times
Been thanked: 328 times

I blame Floyd not being able to do jack and improve at all. Everything was on Mack after hicks went down because of Floyd’s lack of ability in the pass rush.

Moving Jackson wasn’t smart but the d line not getting home near as often really hurt.
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Posts: 20554
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm
Location: Football Hell
Has thanked: 209 times
Been thanked: 753 times

4th in the league in points allowed
6th in rushing yards allowed per attempt
11th in net yards allowed per attempt
8th in DVOA

Come on man...
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS

User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12016
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1199 times
Been thanked: 2128 times

G08 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm 4th in the league in points allowed
6th in rushing yards allowed per attempt
11th in net yards allowed per attempt
8th in DVOA
24th in sacks
22nd in turnovers

Come on man...
I added two key stats for you in the quote, this all sounds decent (but not great). We appear to be teetering on the edge of being a Top 10 defense, not terrible, but not 2018. After 2018, and with this personnel, we should be expecting great defense, not "decent".

Compare it to 2018 with the same personnel and it pops right out at you...

1st in the league in points allowed
5th in rushing yards allowed per attempt
1st in net yards allowed per attempt
1st in DVOA
3rd in sacks
1st in turnovers

Four 1sts, a 3rd and a 5th. Dominant. Nothing in the lower third of the league in 2018 unlike like last year, where the two high impact areas were simply awful. And dropping from 1st to 11th in net yards allowed per attempts is UGLY, not something I'd be posting if I were trying to defend Pagano - that's a BIG drop.

Sorry, I know you don't want to hear it, but that is a precipitous drop in performance. Across the board, and in some cases (impact plays in particular), we dropped off a cliff from best in the league to bottom feeders. Blaming Floyd makes no sense, he sucked on the 2018 team too and yet we dominated. We lost Mack for a month as well, still dominated.

You guys all seem so want to white wash over the scale/proportion issue here. I get that we were a pretty decent defense last year. Pagano was handed the keys to a Ferrari there was no way we were going to be awful. But the delta between 2018 and 2019 is massive, PPG be damned. Here's one way to see the scale issue, PFF has something called Expected Points contributed by all Defense (EXP). It's a really interesting stat because you don't just see teams in linear order with small delta's in their numbers, you see MASSIVE gaps. Last year the Patriots had a GREAT defense, and their EXP was 165, the next ranked ones were 85, then 77, then 39, 16, and 12. Then every other team in the league, including our Bears, had a NEGATIVE number. This shows how wide the gap was between the Pats last year and everyone else. Guess what? In 2018 that was us! We were first, and the next closest team to us was less than half our number - a HUGE gap.

Sometimes just looking at rankings doesn't tell the whole story. We went from dominant to pretty toothless in one season, and Pagano was the main change.
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Posts: 20554
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm
Location: Football Hell
Has thanked: 209 times
Been thanked: 753 times

Health in 2018 vs 2019. We also had a magical year when it came to takeaways in 2018. Statistical anomaly.
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS

User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12016
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1199 times
Been thanked: 2128 times

G08 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:54 pm Health in 2018 vs 2019. We also had a magical year when it came to takeaways in 2018. Statistical anomaly.
Thoroughly debunked bud and only accounts for a part of the drop, but I'm not going to keep on with it. Think what you want man.

Can anyone answer the question I posed? How do you account for the falling off a cliff in sacks w/o Hicks being the only answer? You don't drop from 1st to one of the worst in the league in one season due to one guy getting hurt. Which of Pagano's 6 straight shitty years of defense in Indy gives you guys so much confidence that he's not part of the problem?
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Posts: 20554
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm
Location: Football Hell
Has thanked: 209 times
Been thanked: 753 times

dplank wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:18 am
G08 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:54 pm Health in 2018 vs 2019. We also had a magical year when it came to takeaways in 2018. Statistical anomaly.
Thoroughly debunked bud and only accounts for a part of the drop, but I'm not going to keep on with it. Think what you want man.

Can anyone answer the question I posed? How do you account for the falling off a cliff in sacks w/o Hicks being the only answer? You don't drop from 1st to one of the worst in the league in one season due to one guy getting hurt. Which of Pagano's 6 straight shitty years of defense in Indy gives you guys so much confidence that he's not part of the problem?
Plank this is making my ears bleed.

How are you shitting on a defense that was top 4 in points allowed?

I'll gladly trade away sacks to give up less points if this is the road we are taking.
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS

User avatar
crueltyabc
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5119
Joined: Mon May 04, 2009 7:36 pm
Location: Dallas TX
Has thanked: 79 times
Been thanked: 226 times

1. I don't think it was crazy to think that Eddie would still have 3-4 INTs at SS and with HHCD getting 3-4 that's great safety production. HHCD was a disappointment and got shipped out so whoever decided on this plan - maybe Pagano or maybe Pace - realized it was the wrong idea. Good.

I'm not gonna get too excited about this mistake because the Bears defense was still good and

2. The team was bad because the offense was bad. I seriously doubt there was much more the defense could do to carry this team. Maybe 1 win more? Does that really matter?

Until they figure out QB there is a ceiling for this team
xyt in the discord chats
User avatar
Otis Day
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8059
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2008 2:43 pm
Location: Armpit of IL.
Has thanked: 120 times
Been thanked: 306 times

As the "famous" philosopher, DC, Greg Blache stated, "Sacks don't matter." To finish his quote,

""There's more to playing defense than getting sacks," he said. "We've developed the concept here even further. We talk about disruptions, where you try to get batted balls, altered passes. You try to get hands in the quarterback's throwing lanes to make him adjust the ball. Breakups and disruptions are just as important; it's a big statistic for us. A sack is just one portion of it.
"Sacks are a cosmetic statistic. Guys go to the Pro Bowl with 10-12 sacks, and they're not necessarily complete players."

There you have it.
User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12016
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1199 times
Been thanked: 2128 times

G08 wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:12 am
dplank wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:18 am

Thoroughly debunked bud and only accounts for a part of the drop, but I'm not going to keep on with it. Think what you want man.

Can anyone answer the question I posed? How do you account for the falling off a cliff in sacks w/o Hicks being the only answer? You don't drop from 1st to one of the worst in the league in one season due to one guy getting hurt. Which of Pagano's 6 straight shitty years of defense in Indy gives you guys so much confidence that he's not part of the problem?
Plank this is making my ears bleed.

How are you shitting on a defense that was top 4 in points allowed?

I'll gladly trade away sacks to give up less points if this is the road we are taking.
Just looking at points is really poor dude, so much goes into that number and too much of it is independent of defensive performance. You must know better. All sorts of things go into that, it's over simplified.

DVOA is far better. While imperfect it at least tries to tie in a number of important elements into one perspective. We dropped from 1st to 8th, which seems about right from a gut check perspective. We went from "elite" in 2018 under Fangio to "pretty good" in 2019 under Pagano. I don't think anyone is arguing this, some of you are just content with the fall - I'm not. We put all our chips/salary cap into our defense, "pretty good" is not good enough for this team, we have to be elite on that side of the ball. And what kept us from being elite was the lack of sacks, which drive turnovers. Those went away under Pagano, and it's simply not ok. We can't win unless this defense returns to the elite status we enjoyed while Fangio was here. Nothing in Pagano's past results make me believe he's capable of it, he had one good year running someone else's defense in Baltimore almost a decade ago, then he floundered horribly when he struck out on his own. The results are what they are. And sure enough, he started taking our elite defense in the wrong direction the moment he got here. It's not a complicated take.

Otis I'll take that Greg Blache quote as one point in my favor lol....that guy sucked and was universally roasted for those comments.
User avatar
G08
Hall of Famer
Posts: 20554
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:34 pm
Location: Football Hell
Has thanked: 209 times
Been thanked: 753 times

Then go with DVOA, top 8.

Hicks was hurt.

Trevathan was hurt.

Mack apparently was battling neck and back injuries.

Amukamara was hurt.


Etc etc etc. I mean shit dude, if your expectation is #1 defense overall year after year after year, I don't think you're going to be happy often. 2018 was a magical season, but just like 17 years earlier, it ended with a thud against the fucking Eagles.
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS

User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12016
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1199 times
Been thanked: 2128 times

This team isn’t built to win with only a pretty good defense G08, 8th out of 32 isn’t all that great. We were behind the Jets man. We are built to have a great defense but didn’t play great. We don’t have to be #1 every year, that’s a straw man argument, but dropping 8 spots in one year after a coaching change is cause for alarm IMO. We should have stayed in the top 10th percentile IMO. We had injuries in 2018 as well, that’s too easy an excuse for me.

On paper the 2020 defense is better than 2018. Anything less than Top 3 or 4 in DVOA (that’s top 10th percentile) is a failure. Agree?

8th out of 100 would be great! Would be safely within the top 10th percentile. It seems like that's the perspective you are hanging on to. But there's only 32 teams. 8th out of 32 is BARELY 25th percentile - meh. Pretty good, not great by any means. Nothing to parade around like Pagano did anything but a mediocre job considering the talent he had and the performance that immediately preceded him. We should stop acting like we didn't have any injuries in 2018 either, we lost Mack for a month and Callahan for a huge chunk also, and EJax went out late in the season. The injuries in 2019 were more, absolutely, and Hicks hurt. But Kwit filled in great for Danny, and other than that there weren't many injuries on that side of the ball. So i just don't buy it.
EricTighe
MVP
Posts: 1219
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:13 pm
Has thanked: 15 times
Been thanked: 62 times

If we average more then 27.82 yards per drive, on offense, I believe our defense will be in the top 5 of all rankings.

Hate Pagano or love him. As long as we have the talent we have, I could keep this defense in the top ten.

Our offense needs to better sustain drives on better consistency to help this defense out.

Pat O'Donnell does not have the greatest leg but is accurate as all hell. We can't keep asking him to drive a punt 75 yards.

If this offense can sustain drives we should be just fine. We really don't need a top 10 offense. Damn it would be nice though.
User avatar
crueltyabc
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5119
Joined: Mon May 04, 2009 7:36 pm
Location: Dallas TX
Has thanked: 79 times
Been thanked: 226 times

dplank wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:06 amOn paper the 2020 defense is better than 2018. Anything less than Top 3 or 4 in DVOA (that’s top 10th percentile) is a failure. Agree?
I’d like to raise my hand and say no. We have a sketchy CB battle and no real SS. Quinn as OLB drama. Depth is questionable all over, especially ILB where we have an older player and a guy who can’t help himself but party with porn stars during a pandemic. It’s not hard to imagine some tough games mixed in with the ones where these guys play at their potential. More talent at the top but less reliable
xyt in the discord chats
RichH55
Hall of Famer
Posts: 7942
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:23 pm
Has thanked: 511 times
Been thanked: 598 times

G08 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm 4th in the league in points allowed
6th in rushing yards allowed per attempt
11th in net yards allowed per attempt
8th in DVOA

Come on man...
He isn't saying we were bad - but that there was a clear falloff with Pagano - not really explained by anything other than that.

And is anyone going to address the Pagano Indy years at all? (for those defending him)

I don't think he's Mel Tucker here - but I have my questions about him
User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12016
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1199 times
Been thanked: 2128 times

I can answer that lol....they'll claim that Indy didn't value defense during his tenure there, even though they hired a defensive coordinator to be head coach lmao. If you look at their actual draft history while Pagano was there, their drafts weren't overtly focused on offense or defense. So it's simply not true, but it's the simple "surfacy" knee jerk answer you're sure to receive.

The picks they took on defense didn't work out, but I wonder how much of that is the player and how much is the team/coaching? As a comparative example used only to illustrate what I mean by that: is Tom Brady the same Tom Brady if he were drafted here in Chicago? Likely not. It's hard to say with regards to Indy's defensive draft picks, but after one year with Chuck we saw what happened to EJax, Mack, and Roquan...studs under Vic, pedestrian under Pagano. Nichols and Goldman went backwards as well. So that's not a positive trend.

Again, in Pagano's last two years in Indy, after having 4 prior years to get "his people" and "his system" in place, his defenses ranked 30th and 30th. Then he was fired. He got labeled a "defensive genius" because he had one great defense in Baltimore, where for 1 season he ran someone else's defense and managed not to fuck it up. That's it. He took over Vic's GREAT 2018 defense, almost 100% the same roster, and started his eventual downward march towards mediocrity. Sure, he didn't tank us overnight, we have too much talent to fall that far; but his trendline combined with his history looks bad from where I sit. I'm not sure even the immortal Mel Tucker could have run this defense into the lower third of the league...well....maybe.

I remain hopeful that our talent is so good that it won't matter a whole lot. We'll see...
RichH55
Hall of Famer
Posts: 7942
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:23 pm
Has thanked: 511 times
Been thanked: 598 times

Yeah - I mean - I could cut slack for a Lack of Talent (Don't get me wrong)

But that slack isn't 30th best overall either

And just like certain coaching things - Talent being equal - the Coach that is better at two things: 1) Adjustments and 2) Simply getting his guys to play Hard and Fast - That Coach will get more out of that Talent

Motivation - especially on the Defensive Side (ESPECIALLY) matters - and some of that doesn't even have to be the Coach - Leaders on D (Ray Lewis types) matter more than their firey counterpart on O (IMHO)



Though I will push back on Tucker - He would have had us in the lower 50% for sure. Guys didn't even jump on loose fumbles under him
User avatar
Yogi da Bear
Head Coach
Posts: 2499
Joined: Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:43 pm
Has thanked: 208 times
Been thanked: 359 times

First, as to Ha Ha, perhaps Pagano made the move not because of what Eddie does best, but because of what Ha Ha can't do--tackle. Not a good trait for an in the box safety. Of course, although much better than Ha Ha, Eddie isn't exactly a top flight tackler either. Probably would have been better to just let Eddie play his position and let Ha Ha and Deon fight it out for the SS spot. But in this regard, the whole situation is as much on Pace as Pagano. Ha Ha was simply not a good fit for the rest of our defense.

dplank wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:18 am Can anyone answer the question I posed? How do you account for the falling off a cliff in sacks w/o Hicks being the only answer? You don't drop from 1st to one of the worst in the league in one season due to one guy getting hurt. Which of Pagano's 6 straight shitty years of defense in Indy gives you guys so much confidence that he's not part of the problem?
You do have me getting itchy with Pagano DP. The whole thing with Quinn is really starting to concern. Standing him up and putting him in a blitzing situation I think is a mistake. You're far better off letting him do what he does best--getting to the QB as a down RDE.

I've said this in another thread, but it bears repeating here. Hicks is a pretty big damn reason our sacks and turnovers declined last year:
In all fairness, the loss of Hicks can't be UNDERESTIMATED enough. Through five games last year (with Hicks only playing 8 snaps against Oakland), the Bears had 10 turnovers and 17 sacks (none in the Hicks deprived Raider game). Four and a half of Mack's 8.5 sacks came in those first four Hicks Games. That is close to being on par with 2019's 36 (32 estimated for 2019) turnovers and is actually above board on 2019's 51 sacks (54.4 estimated in 2019 even considering the Hicks shortened Raider game).
RichH55
Hall of Famer
Posts: 7942
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:23 pm
Has thanked: 511 times
Been thanked: 598 times

You do know the turnovers were always coming down Yogi, right?
User avatar
dplank
Hall of Famer
Posts: 12016
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
Has thanked: 1199 times
Been thanked: 2128 times

I recall on the old board that 4 games in to the season that I had posted something to the effect of "Our defense is playing really well and maybe Pagano is going to prove me wrong". Then Hicks went down. So if Hicks is the whole reason for our decline, then I'll be THRILLED about that and will happily eat crow on Pagano. Happily. I'd rather the Bears defense play great than be proved right on Pagano.

I remember that game Hicks went down really well, that Raiders game was when I realized that this team wasn't going to be any good. And it had absolutely NOTHING to do with Mitch being out. We got absolutely owned at the LOS on both sides of the ball, all day long. The Raiders ran the ball down our throat and stuffed our runs for losses/no gains all damn day, we got bitched out there. It was a physical whooping that I don't recall seeing since years ago when Pittsburgh/Jerome Bettis manhandled one of our better Urlacher led defenses one year late in the season. I focus a lot on line play, it's my thing, and IMO it is a very good barometer for the success of your team - simply seeing who is able to push the other guy around. The Raiders made us their bitches, plain and simple. Hicks went out early, but I don't get the sense that he alone would have changed much - it was a team collapse defensively.

And another thing happened that game that really hurt Pagano in my view...that was the game where the headsets went out AND PAGANO WASN'T PREPARED WITH HAND SIGNALS! A PROFESSIONAL COACH FOR FUCKS SAKE! I couldn't believe it, little league teams were more prepared that day. I already didn't like the hire, then that happened and I was back on the hate train. Which remained throughout the rest of the disappointing 2019 season.

Lastly, that game also teaches us about why PPG is a poor measure of overall defenses. We gave up 24, a little high for us but around league average. If you just looked at that in a bubble, one might conclude that we played average defense that day - we did not, we were putrid. The Raiders offense bitched us out all day. The Raiders dominated in time of possession, first downs, and nearly doubled us in yardage. They outrushed us 169 yards to 42. The only reason we were in that game late was because they fumbled twice and we scored 2 TD's from them. Our passing and red zone offense was really good, 73% comp rate and 3-3 in redzone chances, but the game was shortened and our offensive chances were limited because we simply couldn't get the Raiders off the field, they ran at will. The view that our offense sucked and that's why TOP was so tilted is simply wrong. Could our offense have done better? Of course! But we would have to have won in a shootout that day, we're not built for that and not the point re: Pagano and our defense. They converted more than 50% of 3rd/4th down plays and had 13 first downs via run (that is ABYSMAL). They took their foot off the gas after having a 17-0 lead and the fumbles gave us a late shot, but even after we retook the lead in the 4th after two ARob TD's it didn't matter. The very next drive they just crammed the ball right down our throats again for a game winning TD drive. Oh, not just ANY game winning TD drive. A time killing 13 play, 97 yard march down the field to take the lead late in the 4th quarter, punctuated by a 2yd rushing TD where we showed absolutely no fight on the goalline. So we lost 24-21, but the play was worse than the 24 PPG stat which would be 'average' if just viewed w/o context.

And anyone blaming Chase Daniel for that loss because of his game ending pick just doesn't understand football. Not trying to drum that old shit up per se, but it's another example where context means everything. Yea, he blew it at the end with an awful pick, but he played well otherwise and was one of the reasons (along with the fumbles) that we were in it at all. Honestly Rich, not a dig at you at all and have ZERO interest in restarting that mess, the point just dovetails right into the "lacking context" point about the defense above and the fact that I believe most fans superficially blamed Chase for that game because of the late pick, when that loss belongs squarely on the defense. I'm over my crush on Chase Daniel and not riding that losing argument any longer - this is a single game comment nothing more.
Locked