Discuss // Allen Robinson contract negotiation drama

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Normally I don't read too much into this stuff... but sometimes where there's some there's fire:

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2020/09/ ... f-chicago/

Does Bears WR Allen Robinson want out of Chicago?

Brendan Sugrue
3 hours ago

The start of the NFL season means many fans are putting out their football decorations, changing their social media pictures to support their team, and repping them in any way possible. For Chicago Bears receiver Allen Robinson, he did the complete opposite by removing all ties to the team on his social media pages.

Robinson, who has been the talk of the town all offseason as fans have pined Bears general manager Ryan Pace to extend their bona fide receiver, has subtly (and not so subtly at times) dropped hints on his desire for a contract extension. The latest came on Monday night as fans noticed some differences on his Twitter and Instagram pages.

Robinson’s Instagram feed only shows personal photos and his Bears-related bio and cover photo on Twitter was changed.

Normally, this activity goes over many people’s heads. After all, Robinson did change his Bears cover photo to a Black Lives Matter graphic, which he did to show support for the movement and would usually be seen as just that.

But Robinson’s social media activity has been questionable as it relates to his feelings on a potential extension. In the last couple of weeks, he’s sent out messages that could be taken as him being unhappy with his current situation. Robinson also “liked” a few Tweets recently that suggests he may be wanting out of Chicago.

Robinson knew what he was doing when he joined the Bears in 2018. The former Pro-Bowl receiver signed a three-year, $42 million deal at age 24 from Jacksonville, ensuring he would be able to sign another lucrative deal while very much still in his prime. Now in the final year of that deal, many hope he can still sign a long-term contract in Chicago, including one teammate.

Receiver/running back Cordarrelle Patterson continues his efforts to land his fellow receiver a contract extension, this time tweeting Robinson and tagging the Bears to pay the man his money.

Patterson, who is also in the final year of his contract after signing with the Bears in 2019, is more concerned with his teammate’s situation. Who can blame him?

In two full seasons, Robinson has totaled 153 catches for 1,901 yards and 11 touchdowns. He was the Bears’ offensive MVP last season, accounting for nearly one third of the team’s receiving yards, and was the only consistent threat in the passing game. He started off the 2020 season in good shape as well, catching five passes for 74 yards in Sunday’s win.

What’s more, Robinson was the Bears’ 2019 nominee for the NFL’s Walter Payton Man of the Year award, an honor given to one player for his leadership and contributions to the community. Using his Within Reach Foundation, Robinson is contributing on and off the field in many ways.

Bears fans, teammates and Robinson himself are pushing for a deal to get done. However, now that the season has begun, it’s difficult to see the Bears working out an extension with their WR1 until the offseason comes around. Robinson appears willing to wait at this point. He knows he’ll get paid, but will it be by the Bears?
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I need the picture of the dog with the fire.

Seriously though - I think the Bears would love for Anthony Miller to make that big step this year and turn himself into a WR1 so that they don't have to pay Robinson. I don't think its going to happen - but I think the Bears might be planning for it.
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I think this is a go-to move agents often tell their players to perform as a form of silent negotiation. I'm not terribly worried about it.
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UOK wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:00 am I think this is a go-to move agents often tell their players to perform as a form of silent negotiation. I'm not terribly worried about it.
I agree with this. Although I've read rumors about him asking the Bears to trade him over the summer, which is why there was no extension. I've also read that the McCaskey's are having some current cash flow issues and don't have the 50 or so million that they would have to come up with up front.

I also do agree that they want Miller to take that step so that they don't have to shell out a ton for Arob. The Bears are going to need a significant amount of money here shortly, and there might not be enough to go around.

I also wonder if this being the last year of the CBA is impacting anything?
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WHEN Trubisky plays like I have been saying he will all year and puts the Bears in a spot that they have to bring him back, things will get difficult. They will have the 2 players on offense that are going to require the most amount of money keep need contracts at the same time.

The only good thing we have going is that for 3 years Trubisky hasn't put it all together such that he is warranted to get top money like Mahomes and Watson. But if he can play like he is capable of and do it for extended periods of time, he is going to be "worth" $28 million + / year simply because that is what starting NFL QBs get now days.
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UOK wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:00 am I think this is a go-to move agents often tell their players to perform as a form of silent negotiation. I'm not terribly worried about it.
This is my first inclination.

Having to choose between Arob and Miller is a bit unnerving. With how little they've spent on SE, you'd like to think they could have both.

For CBA - they just signed a gigantic extension through 2030.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:24 am WHEN Trubisky plays like I have been saying he will all year and puts the Bears in a spot that they have to bring him back, things will get difficult.

I suppose that's possible.

It's been a loooonnng time since I put any thought into a new contract for Mitch.
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I think there's a chance Mitch plays well enough that they are forced to tag him. That makes things super complicated.

I love Robinson, so don't take this the wrong way, but how much is he worth? I get that he's the unquestioned #1 WR on the Bears at the moment, but is he a true #1 and if not, is paying him like one a problem.

I just go back to the Marty Booker days when he was the Bears #1 WR, and we all sort of framed him as one, but he really wasn't.

I do think Robinson is a #1, but I wonder if the Bears front office thinks the same thing.
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I guess it comes down to how the Bears define an #1 WR. Robinson can certainly get open and catch against top CB talent in the league. However he’s never going to be that Flashy homerun threat.

I do think comparing him to Marty Booker is a bit unfair. Booker ran underneath routes as a 3rd option possession guy and was seldom the number 1 read unless he was running a slant on 3rd and short or something.
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wab wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:17 am
UOK wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:00 am I think this is a go-to move agents often tell their players to perform as a form of silent negotiation. I'm not terribly worried about it.
I agree with this. Although I've read rumors about him asking the Bears to trade him over the summer, which is why there was no extension. I've also read that the McCaskey's are having some current cash flow issues and don't have the 50 or so million that they would have to come up with up front.

I also do agree that they want Miller to take that step so that they don't have to shell out a ton for Arob. The Bears are going to need a significant amount of money here shortly, and there might not be enough to go around.

I also wonder if this being the last year of the CBA is impacting anything?
1. The NFL is not floundering. This shouldn't have anything to do with the Bears not having the money to pay the guy. Between revenue sharing and the league being one of the biggest financial sports institutions on Earth, the Bears can afford to pay their players and signaling poverty is cowardly.

2. If A-Rob doesn't get this deal, it's not for a lack of talent, being too old/injured, or asking too much, it'll be because his agent/representation fails him. The Bears aren't stingy with their money, believe it or not, and they have one of the best reputations in the league when it comes to contract negotiations and reaching agreements.

3. A-Rob is a hell of a receiver and deserves to be paid top-10 WR money. That said, things are a bit tight. Patterson, RRH, Trubisky, Robinson, O'Donnell, and Cohen all come off the books at the end of this season, and you're not going to retain all of them. Trevathan, Foles, and Massie all average $7-8M/season through 2023. Lot of decisions to be made, and you have to really think how the organization is going to play chess with some of these deals, presuming they're all still employed going into next season. Robinson's just one of many issues the team has to navigate, and if he wants to use social media to play politics, that's his right.
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I just read an article today that the next TV deal could be a 75% increase and will be done by early 2021. Extend the guy now!
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wab wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:17 am
UOK wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:00 am I think this is a go-to move agents often tell their players to perform as a form of silent negotiation. I'm not terribly worried about it.
I agree with this. Although I've read rumors about him asking the Bears to trade him over the summer, which is why there was no extension. I've also read that the McCaskey's are having some current cash flow issues and don't have the 50 or so million that they would have to come up with up front.
Time to sell some more stakes in the team :)
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Atkins&Rebel wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:50 am I guess it comes down to how the Bears define an #1 WR. Robinson can certainly get open and catch against top CB talent in the league. However he’s never going to be that Flashy homerun threat.

I do think comparing him to Marty Booker is a bit unfair. Booker ran underneath routes as a 3rd option possession guy and was seldom the number 1 read unless he was running a slant on 3rd and short or something.
I wasn't making a player for player comparison. It was more of a commentary on how Bears fans tend to overvalue any player on the team that shows talent.
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And for the record, I am unequivocally in the "Bears need to figure out a way to extend Allen Robinson" camp.

I'm just worried there's not going to be enough money to go around. As UOK said, the Bears are in a pickle with key pending free agents. Not to mention that they are going to have to replace at least one, maybe two, offensive tackles in the next 1-2 years.
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wab wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:36 am And for the record, I am unequivocally in the "Bears need to figure out a way to extend Allen Robinson" camp.

I'm just worried there's not going to be enough money to go around. As UOK said, the Bears are in a pickle with key pending free agents. Not to mention that they are going to have to replace at least one, maybe two, offensive tackles in the next 1-2 years.
They're cap situation is tight, and I was one of the biggest drum-beaters of that all offseason...

That said, you take care of the big pieces first. Arob is the big piece of all the other 2021 pieces.

Or they're prepared to just mini-reset in 2021. 2018-2020 was always the natural window from pretty much the moment they made the Mack trade. The window extending beyond that was contingent on Trubisky becoming something he clearly has not...
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I saw this in the morning and shook my head. He's been "snarky" on twitter lately so this doesn't surprise me.

For his sake, I hope he balls out this year and stays healthy. Last thing we need is for him to become a malcontent.
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wab wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:17 am Although I've read rumors about him asking the Bears to trade him over the summer, which is why there was no extension. I've also read that the McCaskey's are having some current cash flow issues and don't have the 50 or so million that they would have to come up with up front.
Heard rumors? Who said A-Rob requested a trade? If he did, then his agent sucks for not leaking it to the media.

Who said the Bears are having cash flow issues? Why would they have this? Missing ticket sales? That's a drop in the bucket that is their income and I bet they have a credit line available to do anything they want in pursuit of getting Ginny one more SB.

Neither of those things make sense. Post links or they never happened.
I also wonder if this being the last year of the CBA is impacting anything?
The CBA status means nothing. Waiting for the new TV contracts to get signed might.
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LT2_3 wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:06 pm
wab wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:17 am Although I've read rumors about him asking the Bears to trade him over the summer, which is why there was no extension. I've also read that the McCaskey's are having some current cash flow issues and don't have the 50 or so million that they would have to come up with up front.
Heard rumors? Who said A-Rob requested a trade? If he did, then his agent sucks for not leaking it to the media.

Who said the Bears are having cash flow issues? Why would they have this? Missing ticket sales? That's a drop in the bucket that is their income and I bet they have a credit line available to do anything they want in pursuit of getting Ginny one more SB.

Neither of those things make sense. Post links or they never happened.
I also wonder if this being the last year of the CBA is impacting anything?
The CBA status means nothing. Waiting for the new TV contracts to get signed might.
What part of "read rumors" was confusing?

Also, I meant TV deal and mistakenly said CBA.
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Teams have been used to the salary cap rising each year, but isn't it expected to be lower next season and for future increases to rise more slowly as the impact of COVID is evened out? That's got to make it difficult when there is so much uncertainty around Trubisky. The structure of any new contract may be the big sticking point with Robinson rather than the annual amount.
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Then again there is always the "tag and trade" plan in the offseason if they can't work something out.

I think that's how the Vikings go their new DE and how the 49ers got Dee Ford from the Chiefs.
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:33 pm Teams have been used to the salary cap rising each year, but isn't it expected to be lower next season and for future increases to rise more slowly as the impact of COVID is evened out? That's got to make it difficult when there is so much uncertainty around Trubisky. The structure of any new contract may be the big sticking point with Robinson rather than the annual amount.
Big TV money should be agreed to by early 21 per reports. 75% increase. That's going to solve quite a bit of the covid recovery/smoothing concerns.

I'd target 4/80 in new money with about half guaranteed. Thats the AAV Cooper got (5/100). I'd expect Cooper's market value to be a little higher in the same market, but with more certainty over the TV money apparent, his agent will be able to push up some of that. But to minimize the impact on 2021, you probably gotta structure something like 16m signing bonus, with a really large 2022 roster bonus that is guaranteed the first date that wouldn't cause it to be treated as a signing bonus. I think first day of the league year 2021 might do the trick there. That with a small 2021 base salary could keep that 2021 cap hit at like 5-6m only, then bigger numbers in 2022-24 when the Bears will have some more flexibility in the cap. So his 2020 hit stays the same (15m) and then like 6, 24, 25, 25 on the extension. Maybe throw in some of the "false year" trick like they did with Trevathan/Fuller and punt a few million out to 2025. Ends up being like a 2 year guaranteed extension, with the last two fairly easy to get out of with the bulk of the unguaranteed money left.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:36 pm Then again there is always the "tag and trade" plan in the offseason if they can't work something out.

I think that's how the Vikings go their new DE and how the 49ers got Dee Ford from the Chiefs.
I can't be certain, but I think the one hickup with the tags for the Bears this offseason is going to be that I think you need to actually have the cap space by a certain date to accommodate the tag. They're going to have to decide where to cut loose to free up that cap. And they will have a few options in that regards, but all are starting spots, so you do open up a new hole.
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The Bears really do have some thinking to do about the entire WR depth chart and the marginal value of Robinson over other weapons. Especially if they're going to be also heavily deploying the TEs or RBs to take a good chunk of the looks, and if they consider Miller the real deal (as I do).

Allen seems like a great kid, and is very productive. But his career comps are more like Nate Burleson or Mike Wallace than a top-dollar #1 WR. Like some have mentioned, I think we need to take off our Bear goggles and recognize this. Isn't it obvious that the reason they couldn't work a trade is because of the upcoming contract expectations? It wasn't because he isn't valuable - it is because he isn't THAT valuable.

I can see 12 getting frustrated, but he didn't come in an play like a top dollar #1 WR for the past 2 years so why pay him like he is? Why not just make him earn his future income and see how things shake out? If Miller can prove he can stay healthy he could put up big numbers. Plus there is the minor log jam of other big young possession receivers that probably deserves some consideration. If either of them could deliver on 80% of ARob (seems likely to me)... why pay $20MM for that marginal value?

I can actually easily envision a scenario where 12 wouldn't be missed, and the team might even be more balanced without him. 10 seems to see him as a quick default safety blanket like Calvin Johnson was for Stafford. Stafford actually improved as a QB when CJ retired. So what looks productive for 10 and 12... might not necessarily the best for the team.
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IE wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:47 pm The Bears really do have some thinking to do about the entire WR depth chart and the marginal value of Robinson over other weapons. Especially if they're going to be also heavily deploying the TEs or RBs to take a good chunk of the looks, and if they consider Miller the real deal (as I do).

Allen seems like a great kid, and is very productive. But his career comps are more like Nate Burleson or Mike Wallace than a top-dollar #1 WR. Like some have mentioned, I think we need to take off our Bear goggles and recognize this. Isn't it obvious that the reason they couldn't work a trade is because of the upcoming contract expectations? It wasn't because he isn't valuable - it is because he isn't THAT valuable.

I can see 12 getting frustrated, but he didn't come in an play like a top dollar #1 WR for the past 2 years so why pay him like he is? Why not just make him earn his future income and see how things shake out? If Miller can prove he can stay healthy he could put up big numbers. Plus there is the minor log jam of other big young possession receivers that probably deserves some consideration. If either of them could deliver on 80% of ARob (seems likely to me)... why pay $20MM for that marginal value?

I can actually easily envision a scenario where 12 wouldn't be missed, and the team might even be more balanced without him. 10 seems to see him as a quick default safety blanket like Calvin Johnson was for Stafford. Stafford actually improved as a QB when CJ retired. So what looks productive for 10 and 12... might not necessarily the best for the team.
I think this take is fine if you look at 2021 as something of a rebuilding year. Let Mitch, ARob, and some others sign elsewhere, and pocket some 2022 comp picks. Draft a new QB in 2021 to sit behind Foles for a year. Look at some early extensions for the 2018 draft class (Daniels, Miller, Nichols, Wims).

If you're trying to compete for 2021, I think you push the chips in with ARob and squeeze in another shot. It likely ends up designed around a plan for everything to just blow up one year... but that's actually the route I'd prefer to take given where the Bears are at. Leverage, leverage, leverage. Just a matter of when to pull the pin.
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The Cooler King wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:43 pm
Arkansasbear wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:36 pm Then again there is always the "tag and trade" plan in the offseason if they can't work something out.

I think that's how the Vikings go their new DE and how the 49ers got Dee Ford from the Chiefs.
I can't be certain, but I think the one hickup with the tags for the Bears this offseason is going to be that I think you need to actually have the cap space by a certain date to accommodate the tag. They're going to have to decide where to cut loose to free up that cap. And they will have a few options in that regards, but all are starting spots, so you do open up a new hole.
Should the Bears decide that they want to bring back Robinson, there's money to be found. But man it's going to create some holes at really key positions.

Looking at 2021 numbers at OTC:
Player / Savings / Dead Money

Hicks / 10.5 mil / 1.5 mil
Fuller / 14 mil / 6 mil
Leno / 9 mil / 3.5 mil
Massie / 8 mil / 1.3 mil
Skrine / 5 mil / 1 mil
Whitehair / 6.5 mil / 3 mil

Then you factor nearly 20 mil coming off the books this year in Mitch, Patterson, RRH, and Cohen...

Obviously they aren't getting rid of everyone on this list, but man...that;s a lot of potential holes.
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wab wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:58 pm
The Cooler King wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:43 pm

I can't be certain, but I think the one hickup with the tags for the Bears this offseason is going to be that I think you need to actually have the cap space by a certain date to accommodate the tag. They're going to have to decide where to cut loose to free up that cap. And they will have a few options in that regards, but all are starting spots, so you do open up a new hole.
Should the Bears decide that they want to bring back Robinson, there's money to be found. But man it's going to create some holes at really key positions.

Looking at 2021 numbers at OTC:
Player / Savings / Dead Money

Hicks / 10.5 mil / 1.5 mil
Fuller / 14 mil / 6 mil
Leno / 9 mil / 3.5 mil
Massie / 8 mil / 1.3 mil
Skrine / 5 mil / 1 mil
Whitehair / 6.5 mil / 3 mil

Then you factor nearly 20 mil coming off the books this year in Mitch, Patterson, RRH, and Cohen...

Obviously they aren't getting rid of everyone on this list, but man...that;s a lot of potential holes.
Yea. Its tricky. Things can be done, but its always a tough call. I'll say, if Hicks plays the year out like Sunday, he becomes a very easy target. Maybe he agrees to a restructure in that scenario if he likes Chicago and they still value his leadership. And depending on where you're slotted in the draft maybe one of Leno/Massie is easy if you feel confident you can get a OT with one of your top picks (as much as I hate forcing yourself into picks/slots).
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The Cooler King wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:07 pm
wab wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:58 pm
Should the Bears decide that they want to bring back Robinson, there's money to be found. But man it's going to create some holes at really key positions.

Looking at 2021 numbers at OTC:
Player / Savings / Dead Money

Hicks / 10.5 mil / 1.5 mil
Fuller / 14 mil / 6 mil
Leno / 9 mil / 3.5 mil
Massie / 8 mil / 1.3 mil
Skrine / 5 mil / 1 mil
Whitehair / 6.5 mil / 3 mil

Then you factor nearly 20 mil coming off the books this year in Mitch, Patterson, RRH, and Cohen...

Obviously they aren't getting rid of everyone on this list, but man...that;s a lot of potential holes.
Yea. Its tricky. Things can be done, but its always a tough call. I'll say, if Hicks plays the year out like Sunday, he becomes a very easy target. Maybe he agrees to a restructure in that scenario if he likes Chicago and they still value his leadership. And depending on where you're slotted in the draft maybe one of Leno/Massie is easy if you feel confident you can get a OT with one of your top picks (as much as I hate forcing yourself into picks/slots).
Yeah, out of the 2021 group - Hicks, Skrine, and one (if not both) of the OTs seem like low hanging fruit. Just depends on how much they think Hicks has left and if 2021 is yet another roster reboot.
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Yea Skrine is low hanging, but also a smaller impact.
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IE wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:47 pm The Bears really do have some thinking to do about the entire WR depth chart and the marginal value of Robinson over other weapons. Especially if they're going to be also heavily deploying the TEs or RBs to take a good chunk of the looks, and if they consider Miller the real deal (as I do).

Allen seems like a great kid, and is very productive. But his career comps are more like Nate Burleson or Mike Wallace than a top-dollar #1 WR. Like some have mentioned, I think we need to take off our Bear goggles and recognize this. Isn't it obvious that the reason they couldn't work a trade is because of the upcoming contract expectations? It wasn't because he isn't valuable - it is because he isn't THAT valuable.

I can see 12 getting frustrated, but he didn't come in an play like a top dollar #1 WR for the past 2 years so why pay him like he is? Why not just make him earn his future income and see how things shake out? If Miller can prove he can stay healthy he could put up big numbers. Plus there is the minor log jam of other big young possession receivers that probably deserves some consideration. If either of them could deliver on 80% of ARob (seems likely to me)... why pay $20MM for that marginal value?

I can actually easily envision a scenario where 12 wouldn't be missed, and the team might even be more balanced without him. 10 seems to see him as a quick default safety blanket like Calvin Johnson was for Stafford. Stafford actually improved as a QB when CJ retired. So what looks productive for 10 and 12... might not necessarily the best for the team.
I find myself thinking of this, and that's kind of where my Marty Booker comparison came from. Fans have overvalued WR talent for decades. We did it with Bernard Berrian. And Marcus Robinson. And Bobby Engram. And Alshon Jeffery. And Curtis Conway. And Cameron Meredith. And Justin Gage. Etc etc etc.

This is not to say that Robinson isn't talented, or isn't worth keeping. I just flip flop a little when it's put into context.

I think the Bears REAAAAAAALLLY want Miller to make this decision easy on them. The issue is his blocking...I don't think they trust him to do it at all. He was barely on the field for any of the running plays.

They have young talent. Miller, Mooney, Ridley....even Wims. It's a tough call for anyone who isn't a fan.
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