2021 Salary Cap

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Moriarty
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https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agen ... %20million.


Previously it was estimated to go up from 198M to 210M.
Now, it may be 175M instead. (And, listening to the radio today, they seemed to think 175 was pretty likely)


There's a really big impact to that - both for teams and players.
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The is probably a huge hinge in the Allen Robinson negotiations. The Bears see the market as dropping 10% while A-Rob's camp still want top dollar. They might have to meet somewhere in the middle with a low guarantee next year then a bigger bonus in 2022 or 2023 to get the overall average up.
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Z Bear wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:48 pm The is probably a huge hinge in the Allen Robinson negotiations. The Bears see the market as dropping 10% while A-Rob's camp still want top dollar. They might have to meet somewhere in the middle with a low guarantee next year then a bigger bonus in 2022 or 2023 to get the overall average up.
Well, my understanding (and I made this thread, in part, so that others who may know better can chime in) is that the 2021 drop would have been much worse, except that they agreed to spread the hit to the cap out over the next few years - which is to say that I think 2022 & 3 are still going to be part of the 2021 dip.
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One interesting thing you might see happen is guys with small dead cap numbers get cut, but in a crowded market resign for much less. Which if some guys see that writing on the wall, may agree to restructures this offseason. So there could be a scenario where guys cut and resign the same guys (think Massie, Leno).
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The Cooler King wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:29 pm One interesting thing you might see happen is guys with small dead cap numbers get cut, but in a crowded market resign for much less. Which if some guys see that writing on the wall, may agree to restructures this offseason. So there could be a scenario where guys cut and resign the same guys (think Massie, Leno).
Very possibly. Athough, ego/bitterness often play a role in these things.
That is, a lot of times, a player who was making 10M may sign for 7M elsewhere if they have to, but they won't go back to their current team for that same price.


Even more broadly, it looks to me like 2021 is going to be a good year to
a) Shed as many "old" "overpriced" (according to the new market) contracts as possible
b) Sign lots of new FAs at cheaper prices


Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to me like the Bears are in a good place for that strategy.
In trying to win now, they made a lot of their bigger contracts virtually uncuttable, due to structure

Mack is uncuttable
Quinn is uncuttable
Trevathan is uncuttable
Goldman is uncuttable
Whitehair is uncuttable
Eddie is uncuttable

Sure, you wouldn't want to axe them all, but I think some you would, and none is how many you can.
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Moriarty wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:42 pm
The Cooler King wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:29 pm One interesting thing you might see happen is guys with small dead cap numbers get cut, but in a crowded market resign for much less. Which if some guys see that writing on the wall, may agree to restructures this offseason. So there could be a scenario where guys cut and resign the same guys (think Massie, Leno).
Very possibly. Athough, ego/bitterness often play a role in these things.
That is, a lot of times, a player who was making 10M may sign for 7M elsewhere if they have to, but they won't go back to their current team for that same price.


Even more broadly, it looks to me like 2021 is going to be a good year to
a) Shed as many "old" "overpriced" (according to the new market) contracts as possible
b) Sign lots of new FAs at cheaper prices


Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to me like the Bears are in a good place for that strategy.
In trying to win now, they made a lot of their bigger contracts virtually uncuttable, due to structure

Mack is uncuttable
Quinn is uncuttable
Trevathan is uncuttable
Goldman is uncuttable
Whitehair is uncuttable
Eddie is uncuttable

Sure, you wouldn't want to axe them all, but I think some you would, and none is how many you can.
Yea, its basically Massie, Leno, Hicks, Graham, Skrine (small savings), and Fuller who are cuttable from a cap savings perspective. All together those guys are about 42M you could free up. But they also have a very low number of contracted guys into 2021 (31 per Over the Cap). Sooo, no matter what things will get interesting.
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The Cooler King wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:20 pm
Moriarty wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:42 pm

Very possibly. Athough, ego/bitterness often play a role in these things.
That is, a lot of times, a player who was making 10M may sign for 7M elsewhere if they have to, but they won't go back to their current team for that same price.


Even more broadly, it looks to me like 2021 is going to be a good year to
a) Shed as many "old" "overpriced" (according to the new market) contracts as possible
b) Sign lots of new FAs at cheaper prices


Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to me like the Bears are in a good place for that strategy.
In trying to win now, they made a lot of their bigger contracts virtually uncuttable, due to structure

Mack is uncuttable
Quinn is uncuttable
Trevathan is uncuttable
Goldman is uncuttable
Whitehair is uncuttable
Eddie is uncuttable

Sure, you wouldn't want to axe them all, but I think some you would, and none is how many you can.
Yea, its basically Massie, Leno, Hicks, Graham, Skrine (small savings), and Fuller who are cuttable from a cap savings perspective. All together those guys are about 42M you could free up. But they also have a very low number of contracted guys into 2021 (31 per Over the Cap). Sooo, no matter what things will get interesting.
Massie, Hicks, and Skrine look like the most likely out of that group. Fuller is still only 28 and on a reasonable deal for one of the better corners in the league. I can't imagine both OT's would be let go, finding one at a time is tough enough.
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wab wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:24 pm
The Cooler King wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:20 pm

Yea, its basically Massie, Leno, Hicks, Graham, Skrine (small savings), and Fuller who are cuttable from a cap savings perspective. All together those guys are about 42M you could free up. But they also have a very low number of contracted guys into 2021 (31 per Over the Cap). Sooo, no matter what things will get interesting.
Massie, Hicks, and Skrine look like the most likely out of that group. Fuller is still only 28 and on a reasonable deal for one of the better corners in the league. I can't imagine both OT's would be let go, finding one at a time is tough enough.
Fuller has a 20 Million cap hit next year (it's a balloon year)

Him playing out the deal as is - to me - is quite unlikely
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I’m still not sure the Bears shouldn’t tank next year, but that convo belongs in a QB thread.

I could see the Bears replacing a vet CB with Vildore, and waive or trade Hicks in favor of Goldman&Nichols as starters. There’s nobody behind Massie but I guess you can find an adequate RT for less. Losing Robinson would hurt a lot any way you look at it. I guess they could find a cheap WR3 but it wouldn’t be an inspiring corps led by Miller and Mooney
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crueltyabc wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:23 pm I’m still not sure the Bears shouldn’t tank next year, but that convo belongs in a QB thread.

I could see the Bears replacing a vet CB with Vildore, and waive or trade Hicks in favor of Goldman&Nichols as starters. There’s nobody behind Massie but I guess you can find an adequate RT for less. Losing Robinson would hurt a lot any way you look at it. I guess they could find a cheap WR3 but it wouldn’t be an inspiring corps led by Miller and Mooney
Passing on Van Jefferson is gonna hurt
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RichH55 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:00 am
wab wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:24 pm
Massie, Hicks, and Skrine look like the most likely out of that group. Fuller is still only 28 and on a reasonable deal for one of the better corners in the league. I can't imagine both OT's would be let go, finding one at a time is tough enough.
Fuller has a 20 Million cap hit next year (it's a balloon year)

Him playing out the deal as is - to me - is quite unlikely
https://sportsmockery.com/2020/09/does- ... the-rumor/

Pace may be looking at this guy already with that fact on his mind. The idea scares me. Wade was the 3rd CB for Ohio State behind Amette (taken by the Rayders with our pick) and Okudah who went 3rd to the Kittens. His dad was talking the other day and he might still sit out even if Ohio State plays. Just need to see more of him before I'd pull that trigger.
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I’m amazed the nfl will go with a big drop off and then a possible huge rise in future years when life adjusts and new tv deals come in fans return etc

Surley a smaller decrease next year almost borrowing it from future years to lessen the hit would make more sense to owners and players?

175 next year could be 200 the year after *( a guess )

In my world it’s 185 next year 190 the year after etc
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So, as an exercise in imagining the impact of a 175M cap, I went into the 2021 Bears and started trying to work out what could be done. Now, we don’t know that 175 is a certainty or anything, but getting an idea of a Cap Worst Case Scenario.

It was a complete bloodbath.
I had to cut or let walk:

Akiem Hicks
Buster Skrine
Roy Robertson-Harris

Allen Robinson
Bobby Massie
Germain Ifedi
Mitchell Trubisky
Jimmy Graham
Tarik Cohen
Cordarrelle Patterson
Ted Ginn Jr.

Pat O'Donnell

That’s 5 starters plus 2 fairly unique role players on offense. 2 more starters and 2 near-starters when including defense and ST.
The only meaningful cuttable players I let stay were Fuller and Leno.
I only spent 8M FA dollars on anyone above near-minimum (1M) level – a DL & WR.
And that still only got me down to 186M. So when you roll our extra 2020 space of about 10M over into 2021, it puts the numbers at very borderline making it, with absolutely nothing left over – which teams really never do.


Blanks under EXPIRES mean they are FAs and I’ve estimated a cost.

PLAYER POS. AGE EXPIRES 2021 CAP FIGURE
Kyle Fuller CB 29 2022 $20,000,000
Jaylon Johnson CB 22 2024 $1,470,175
Kindle Vildor CB 23 2024 $857,668
Duke Shelley CB 24 2023 $881,960
Tre Roberson CB 28 2022 $842,500
Eddie Goldman DL 27 2024 $7,700,000
vet FA DL $5,000,000
Brent Urban DL 30 $1,000,000
Mario Edwards DL 27 $1,000,000
John Jenkins DL 32 $1,000,000
Bilal Nichols DL 24 2022 $994,872
Roquan Smith ILB 24 2023 $6,049,099
Danny Trevathan ILB 31 2023 $5,025,000
Joel Iyiegbuniwe ILB 25 2022 $1,089,645
Josh Woods ILB 25 $1,000,000
Eddy Pineiro K 25 $1,000,000
Patrick Scales LS 33 $1,000,000
Charles Leno OL 29 2022 $11,294,000
Cody Whitehair OL 29 2025 $9,600,000
R1 OL $4,000,000
James Daniels OL 23 2022 $2,211,416
R3 OL $1,000,000
Rashaad Coward OL 26 $1,000,000
Jason Spriggs OL 27 $1,000,000
Alex Bars OL 25 $1,000,000
Khalil Mack OLB 30 2025 $26,646,000
Robert Quinn OLB 31 2025 $14,700,000
James Vaughters OLB 28 $1,000,000
Barkevious Mingo OLB 30 $1,000,000
Trevis Gipson OLB 24 2024 $861,418
R7 P 30 $500,000
Nick Foles QB 32 2023 $6,666,666
whatever vet QB $3,000,000
David Montgomery RB 24 2023 $1,111,577
R5 RB $700,000
Pierce RB 2? $700,000
Ryan Nall RB 25 $700,000
Eddie Jackson S 28 2025 $11,450,000
Tashaun Gipson S 31 $1,000,000
Deon Bush S 28 $1,000,000
DeAndre Houston-Carson S 28 $1,000,000
Marqui Christian S 26 $1,000,000
vet FA TE $3,000,000
Cole Kmet TE 22 2024 $1,722,222
Demetrius Harris TE 30 $1,500,000
Horstead TE 2? $600,000
J.P. Holtz TE 28 $700,000
Anthony Miller WR 26 2022 $1,703,450
R2 WR $1,100,000
Riley Ridley WR 25 2023 $1,020,649
some vet WR $1,000,000
Javon Wims WR 26 2022 $943,978
Darnell Mooney WR 23 2024 $850,513
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With that kind of constraint (175M), I don't see how Robinson is any kind of consideration, unless it's a very, very heavily backloaded deal, with the expectation of big TV money in 2022. Even then, do you want him taking up 25M+ (well over 10%) of your salary cap in 2-3 yrs? I don't.

And the above also is letting Mitch go. If he plays like a franchise QB you can't let go this year and you have to pay him 30M a year...you're destroyed. Mack, Quinn, Mitch, and Robinson - 4 guys - would be pushing 40% of your cap.
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I believe 175 million is the floor, and it may go higher depending on revenue. Also the bears have right around 10 million in cap space that will roll over unless it’s used yet this year.

The sky isn’t falling, but definitely ther will be some starters cut to save money, like a fuller.
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Moriarty -

1). I simply cannot imagine Fuller being the guy that plays out his deal - If you are in bloodbath mode - 20 Million cap hit for a CB should be higher on the list

But a simple extension for him makes sense and could easily halve his 2021 Cap Number

2). And No Accounting Tricks? Turning some base salaries into bonuses is easy to do and saves Cap Room

3) No Extensions?

4) No restructures? I imagine there are some likely candidates for this - the league as a whole will be in Cost Cutting mode -
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RichH55 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:58 am
2). And No Accounting Tricks? Turning some base salaries into bonuses is easy to do and saves Cap Room
I think you're simplyfying this a bit. I believe converting base to bonus would occur with a extension or restructure which requires negotiation with the player. That restructure can be a straight bass for bonus swap, and theres some incentive for the player to do that type of move, but it's not a guarantee. What can typically be done without the players consent is restructuring a roster bonus to signing bonus. Eddie Goldman looks like he has a 3m roster bonus that could be converted.

Quinn could be a restructure/conversion candidate though. He has a 11.5 guaranteed base salary for 2021, so you could save 8+ there. Mack has 16.7 base guarantee so that could be up to 12.5 saved. Eddie has a 8.9 base guarantee which could be 6.5+m saved. You're robbing Peter to pay Paul to do those moves, but you'd do it if you needed to ensure you weren't over the cap and subject yourself to penalties. But it just tightens 22-24, so it doesn't really "save" anything.
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I can’t see a way that this team isn’t decreasing in talent next year, when plans vary from losing 3-7 starters, and it’s an average-talent roster right now. You’d be lucky to replace two of those guys with our draft picks likely coming in the middle of each round... it points to full rebuild in my opinion.
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It is not just the Bears that will have to purge. The article in the first post shows the Eagles and Saints to have committed $260M for next year! The Cowboys are over the cap and will have to figure out how to pay Prescott. Teams that have been pushing salaries down the line are in serious trouble next year.
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The only silver lining is that there will be a lot of other teams in similar positions.

There could be a lot of players signing below (normal) market-value one year contracts hoping for a better pay day the following year.

However, in addition to the impact of COVID the players may well be trading their right to protest for future earnings too, but that is a choice freely made. Regardless of any perceived rights and wrongs, and I have no intention of initiating any political debate as I respect UOK's determination to keep such things out of this forum, the players cannot be oblivious to the fact that their actions are divisive. They draw support from some and alienate others. If the latter outnumber the former then league revenue will be negatively affected and consequently so will the salary cap. Salary restraint may become the new normal, at least in the short term.
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Z Bear wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:30 pm It is not just the Bears that will have to purge. The article in the first post shows the Eagles and Saints to have committed $260M for next year! The Cowboys are over the cap and will have to figure out how to pay Prescott. Teams that have been pushing salaries down the line are in serious trouble next year.
The Eagles and Saints have much better rosters and more recent super bowl wins. The Saints are rebuilding for sure anyway, and have a good young defense and a couple of great offensive skill position players to start with.

I look at the cap strapped teams and the Bears are the worst of them in terms of talent so this point of view does nothing to make me feel better.
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The Cooler King wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:04 pm
RichH55 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:58 am
2). And No Accounting Tricks? Turning some base salaries into bonuses is easy to do and saves Cap Room
I think you're simplyfying this a bit. I believe converting base to bonus would occur with a extension or restructure which requires negotiation with the player. That restructure can be a straight bass for bonus swap, and theres some incentive for the player to do that type of move, but it's not a guarantee. What can typically be done without the players consent is restructuring a roster bonus to signing bonus. Eddie Goldman looks like he has a 3m roster bonus that could be converted.

Quinn could be a restructure/conversion candidate though. He has a 11.5 guaranteed base salary for 2021, so you could save 8+ there. Mack has 16.7 base guarantee so that could be up to 12.5 saved. Eddie has a 8.9 base guarantee which could be 6.5+m saved. You're robbing Peter to pay Paul to do those moves, but you'd do it if you needed to ensure you weren't over the cap and subject yourself to penalties. But it just tightens 22-24, so it doesn't really "save" anything.

Only slightly - its pretty standard
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:28 pm The only silver lining is that there will be a lot of other teams in similar positions.

There could be a lot of players signing below (normal) market-value one year contracts hoping for a better pay day the following year.

However, in addition to the impact of COVID the players may well be trading their right to protest for future earnings too, but that is a choice freely made. Regardless of any perceived rights and wrongs, and I have no intention of initiating any political debate as I respect UOK's determination to keep such things out of this forum, the players cannot be oblivious to the fact that their actions are divisive. They draw support from some and alienate others. If the latter outnumber the former then league revenue will be negatively affected and consequently so will the salary cap. Salary restraint may become the new normal, at least in the short term.
Unlikely - its Covid -

Look at the chiefs game - they fucking booed the moment of unity - but they paid for their ticket

Cap went up this year (pre covid).

Dont buy the dumb hype
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I mean yeah, this is why for the last couple of years everyone's been saying the bears are in win now mode and window is closing before a rebuild.

But also, the caps kind of a myth. Just sucks that some players we drafted and developed will have to go on and be impact players elsewhere.

World keeps spinnin'.
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The Cooler King wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:04 pm
RichH55 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:58 am
2). And No Accounting Tricks? Turning some base salaries into bonuses is easy to do and saves Cap Room
I think you're simplyfying this a bit. I believe converting base to bonus would occur with a extension or restructure which requires negotiation with the player. That restructure can be a straight bass for bonus swap, and theres some incentive for the player to do that type of move, but it's not a guarantee. What can typically be done without the players consent is restructuring a roster bonus to signing bonus. Eddie Goldman looks like he has a 3m roster bonus that could be converted.

Quinn could be a restructure/conversion candidate though. He has a 11.5 guaranteed base salary for 2021, so you could save 8+ there. Mack has 16.7 base guarantee so that could be up to 12.5 saved. Eddie has a 8.9 base guarantee which could be 6.5+m saved. You're robbing Peter to pay Paul to do those moves, but you'd do it if you needed to ensure you weren't over the cap and subject yourself to penalties. But it just tightens 22-24, so it doesn't really "save" anything.


Also curious - if ANY of the Base is not guaranteed - and Bears want to convert it to SB (which is guaranteed and paid)

What is the incentive of the Player to say No?
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RichH55 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:31 am
The Cooler King wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:04 pm
I think you're simplyfying this a bit. I believe converting base to bonus would occur with a extension or restructure which requires negotiation with the player. That restructure can be a straight bass for bonus swap, and theres some incentive for the player to do that type of move, but it's not a guarantee. What can typically be done without the players consent is restructuring a roster bonus to signing bonus. Eddie Goldman looks like he has a 3m roster bonus that could be converted.

Quinn could be a restructure/conversion candidate though. He has a 11.5 guaranteed base salary for 2021, so you could save 8+ there. Mack has 16.7 base guarantee so that could be up to 12.5 saved. Eddie has a 8.9 base guarantee which could be 6.5+m saved. You're robbing Peter to pay Paul to do those moves, but you'd do it if you needed to ensure you weren't over the cap and subject yourself to penalties. But it just tightens 22-24, so it doesn't really "save" anything.


Also curious - if ANY of the Base is not guaranteed - and Bears want to convert it to SB (which is guaranteed and paid)

What is the incentive of the Player to say No?
Not any direct incentive I can think of, but converting non-guarantee to guarantee changes the salary cap math for the team as well
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The Cooler King wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:54 am
RichH55 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:31 am



Also curious - if ANY of the Base is not guaranteed - and Bears want to convert it to SB (which is guaranteed and paid)

What is the incentive of the Player to say No?
Not any direct incentive I can think of, but converting non-guarantee to guarantee changes the salary cap math for the team as well
Well there are two things here - though I'm suggesting the easiest one (and super, super common)

The harder one is where you want to lower a guys overall Salary too *might be more common this offseason though* I.E. You have a guy making 8 million but you think he's really worth 4 - To get him to bite that necessary bullet you might guarantee the 4 million or turn it into a SB to further lower the 2021 Cap Hit

BUT the easy one - Shouldn't change a teams calculus really

I.E. You have a player scheduled to make 10 Million (none guaranteed) - but you think he's actually worth more than 10 Million and you have Zero plans to cut him.

So "Guaranteeing" the 10 Million (or more like 9 Million since he still has to have SOME base salary) by converting that Base into a Signing Bonus - shouldn't change your calculus at all

It should just spread the 10 Million out to future seasons in part
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