QB Prospect Discussion: Mac Jones
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- UOK
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It amazes me that the QB market in the draft is so drunk. Mac Jones is a round 2-3 QB in a baseline year where QB is no more important than any other position. Teams are so desperate for their franchise guy they'll vomit assets to make a pick 48 guy into a top 5 player. Paranoia and desperation are a horrible recipe for draft evaluation. Makes it meaningless.
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I hear what you're saying, UOK, but two minutes for rebuttal: the mental aspect of QB play is just enormous -- a guy for whom the game slows down enough to routinely make the smart play is just invaluable. We've seen that here with Trubisky; his physical gifts are way past those of Jones, but the game still moves too fast for him. I mean, seriously, put what we've seen of Jones' processing in Trubisky's head and you've got a poor man's John Elway.
As it is, if Jones can do in the NFL what he's shown in college (and yes, that's a BIG "if") he's at least Chad Pennington, and maybe develops into Bernie Kosar or Phillip Rivers. It's a gamble, yes. Drafting QBs is almost always a complete roll of the dice, especially in this era where they need to produce on their rookie contract. But I can see the appeal, and I don't have to squint to do so.
As it is, if Jones can do in the NFL what he's shown in college (and yes, that's a BIG "if") he's at least Chad Pennington, and maybe develops into Bernie Kosar or Phillip Rivers. It's a gamble, yes. Drafting QBs is almost always a complete roll of the dice, especially in this era where they need to produce on their rookie contract. But I can see the appeal, and I don't have to squint to do so.
KFFL refugee.
dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
- wab
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I actually think Mac Jones, in any other year, is probably the first QB off the board.
- G08
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I don't see the arm strength at all... tick above average. Look at his velocity compared to Kellen Mond. (note: I am not saying arm strength is the end-all-be-all of great QB play, but it makes a significant difference).
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Does it?
K.
PM me - I very much wish to sell you some Mint Condition JaMarcus Russell and Kyle Boller rookie cards
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Joe Burrow wasn't exactly a 4 year starter either
It's also much better accuracy, anticipation, footwork, and knowledge of the game that your Jake Fromm's
Basically better in every respect
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Better arm than Barkley?!?!?!?
Here is what you said about Barkley over the years:
"He has the arm to make defenses pay if they stack 8 or 9 in the box to stop our run game."
"The dude can launch it 58-60 yards with touch, that arm is more than fine."
Did this send me down a rabbit hole of G08 touting Matt Barkley?!?!??!? Yes, yes it did.
"Don't get me wrong, I'm a big Barkley backer"
"Some context for what Barkley is doing at age 26:
Drew Brees"
"For the arm strength concerns, this is 55 yards in the air, the following throw is 58:"
"Here's some throws with zip and on the move:"
"I just continue to be amazed by Matt Barkley the more I learn about him. "
"He made a 100 yard receiver out of Deonte Thompson."
"I'm realizing with him that he can get mustard on the ball when he wants to,"
"I just don't want to draft Deshone Kizer/Deshaun Watson with our high first round pick, only to have him sit on the fucking bench while Barkley develops and doesn't let go of the job"
"I focused on all of Kirk Cousin's throws last night and Barkley's arm is just as strong if not stronger on a lot of the same throws."
" I'd say he is a tick below Matt Ryan if I really want to pick nits"
"You cannot lock Matt Barkley down... you can only wish to contain him."
LOVE YOU G08!!!!
- G08
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My man!!RichH55 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:46 pmBetter arm than Barkley?!?!?!?
Here is what you said about Barkley over the years:
"He has the arm to make defenses pay if they stack 8 or 9 in the box to stop our run game."
"The dude can launch it 58-60 yards with touch, that arm is more than fine."
Did this send me down a rabbit hole of G08 touting Matt Barkley?!?!??!? Yes, yes it did.
"Don't get me wrong, I'm a big Barkley backer"
"Some context for what Barkley is doing at age 26:
Drew Brees"
"For the arm strength concerns, this is 55 yards in the air, the following throw is 58:"
"Here's some throws with zip and on the move:"
"I just continue to be amazed by Matt Barkley the more I learn about him. "
"He made a 100 yard receiver out of Deonte Thompson."
"I'm realizing with him that he can get mustard on the ball when he wants to,"
"I just don't want to draft Deshone Kizer/Deshaun Watson with our high first round pick, only to have him sit on the fucking bench while Barkley develops and doesn't let go of the job"
"I focused on all of Kirk Cousin's throws last night and Barkley's arm is just as strong if not stronger on a lot of the same throws."
" I'd say he is a tick below Matt Ryan if I really want to pick nits"
"You cannot lock Matt Barkley down... you can only wish to contain him."
LOVE YOU G08!!!!
I did everything I could to will that guy into being our franchise QB, alas yet another swing and a miss.
Back on topic, look his arm is not what one would consider to be strong in the NFL. It's a tick above average, which you can absolutely live with in the NFL. My concern stems from what I see as a trend toward big armed, athletic/mobile QBs (save for the GOAT). Look at the elite QBs in the NFL right meow:
Aaron Rodgers (big arm, mobile)
Deshaun Watson (big arm, mobile)
Patrick Mahomes (huge arm, mobile)
Josh Allen (huge arm, mobile)
Ryan Tannehill (good arm, mobile)
Drew Brees (good arm, not mobile)
Russell Wilson (big arm, mobile)
Kirk Cousins (good arm, fairly mobile)
Tom Brady (big arm, not mobile)
Derek Carr (big arm, mobile)
Dak Prescott (big arm, mobile)
Lamar Jackson (big arm, mobile)
Justin Herbert (big arm, mobile)
So on and so forth. That's what you want in today's NFL. Mac Jones has neither a big arm nor is mobile.
HOWEVER
His arm is good enough and he has better athleticism than some give him credit.
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This is funny... from WalterFootball.com:
WalterFootball.com wrote: "[Jones is] a stronger-armed Jake Fromm," said one area scout. "He distributes the ball well to all those great weapons. Jones has some ability. His arm is good enough, a little stronger than Jake's. Mac can anticipate, and sees the field well. I think he could have a career in the NFL similar to Matt Barkley."
Another team source who graded Jones (6-3, 214) down in the fourth round said they felt he was a shorter A.J. McCarron. Similar to McCarron, Jones was surrounded with a phenomenal set of wide receivers, a tough offensive line with future early-round picks, and a dynamic running game. Team sources say Jones did a good job of managing the game and getting the ball to his playmakers.
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The arm looked stronger than I anticipated at the Senior Bowl
I also wouldn't say Carr and Brady have big arms
Again - I fully, fully expected to be typing "another AJ McCarron" when I started Senior Bowl week (and I HATED AJ)
But I was blown away
I think the arm is probably a tick above average - sure. But the anticipation and placement are way, way above
And he moves well in the pocket - he's not a threat to run very much - but he maneuvers very well within the pocket - Will climb etc
I also wouldn't say Carr and Brady have big arms
Again - I fully, fully expected to be typing "another AJ McCarron" when I started Senior Bowl week (and I HATED AJ)
But I was blown away
I think the arm is probably a tick above average - sure. But the anticipation and placement are way, way above
And he moves well in the pocket - he's not a threat to run very much - but he maneuvers very well within the pocket - Will climb etc
- wab
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While I absolutely agree with this, I think you have to add “reads defenses/sees the field well”.G08 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:24 pm Back on topic, look his arm is not what one would consider to be strong in the NFL. It's a tick above average, which you can absolutely live with in the NFL. My concern stems from what I see as a trend toward big armed, athletic/mobile QBs (save for the GOAT). Look at the elite QBs in the NFL right meow:
Aaron Rodgers (big arm, mobile)
Deshaun Watson (big arm, mobile)
Patrick Mahomes (huge arm, mobile)
Josh Allen (huge arm, mobile)
Ryan Tannehill (good arm, mobile)
Drew Brees (good arm, not mobile)
Russell Wilson (big arm, mobile)
Kirk Cousins (good arm, fairly mobile)
Tom Brady (big arm, not mobile)
Derek Carr (big arm, mobile)
Dak Prescott (big arm, mobile)
Lamar Jackson (big arm, mobile)
Justin Herbert (big arm, mobile)
So on and so forth. That's what you want in today's NFL. Mac Jones has neither a big arm nor is mobile.
HOWEVER
His arm is good enough and he has better athleticism than some give him credit.
Because I can point to just as many mobile dudes with big arms that have flamed out in spectacular fashion.
I’m not the biggest Jones fan, but where he wins me over is with his pocket presence, awareness, and anticipation.
He’s got kind of a Matty Ice way of playing the game.
I wouldn’t hate the Bears drafting him. I would hate the Bears trading up to like 11 or 12 to do it though.
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Eh WAB - if he's good then the trade up doesnt matter - and sadly where we are at it might be necessary (not like we are picking #3)
I will say this - love the Alabama WR and HB - I think the OL is more "good" rather than great though
But yeah- Senior Bowl he looked great and that wasn't playing on a Super Team
I will say this - love the Alabama WR and HB - I think the OL is more "good" rather than great though
But yeah- Senior Bowl he looked great and that wasn't playing on a Super Team
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For sure, I posted that from a "all things considered equal" with regards to reading defenses, etc.wab wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:03 pm While I absolutely agree with this, I think you have to add “reads defenses/sees the field well”.
Because I can point to just as many mobile dudes with big arms that have flamed out in spectacular fashion.
I’m not the biggest Jones fan, but where he wins me over is with his pocket presence, awareness, and anticipation.
He’s got kind of a Matty Ice way of playing the game.
I wouldn’t hate the Bears drafting him. I would hate the Bears trading up to like 11 or 12 to do it though.
To me, if you want a shot an elite QB, you want someone with movement skills/athleticism and a big arm. That's your best shot if you are playing the odds.
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Big Arms and athletics are the most overrated QB skills - That is Kyle Boller.G08 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 20, 2021 1:38 pmFor sure, I posted that from a "all things considered equal" with regards to reading defenses, etc.wab wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:03 pm While I absolutely agree with this, I think you have to add “reads defenses/sees the field well”.
Because I can point to just as many mobile dudes with big arms that have flamed out in spectacular fashion.
I’m not the biggest Jones fan, but where he wins me over is with his pocket presence, awareness, and anticipation.
He’s got kind of a Matty Ice way of playing the game.
I wouldn’t hate the Bears drafting him. I would hate the Bears trading up to like 11 or 12 to do it though.
To me, if you want a shot an elite QB, you want someone with movement skills/athleticism and a big arm. That's your best shot if you are playing the odds.
Joe Montana, Tom Brady etc. Neither great athletes nor big arms (though arguably Steve Young looked better than Montana in a similar system and his other skills helped)
Now you can't have Kellen Moore's arm either mind you
And what do you mean by movement skills?
I think Mac actually manipulates the pocket fantastically - climbing up when needed - a step or two left or right -all while keeping his eyes down field
Whereas a guy like RGIII - tremendous athlete - I actually thought he was quite bad in terms of pocket presence
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Movement skills means being able to break the pocket, buy time, thrown on the run with accuracy etc. Marino was exceptional at moving in the pocket, but I wouldn't say he have movement skills to extend plays, throw on the run etc.
Again I'm not saying a big arm + athleticism = franchise QB. If that wsd the case, Jay Cutler would have been a God.
Look at today's game, you don't see Joe Montana anymore. Tom Brady is the GOAT and an exception.
The top I'd argue the top 5 QBs in the NFL have big arms and are athletic.
Again I'm not saying a big arm + athleticism = franchise QB. If that wsd the case, Jay Cutler would have been a God.
Look at today's game, you don't see Joe Montana anymore. Tom Brady is the GOAT and an exception.
The top I'd argue the top 5 QBs in the NFL have big arms and are athletic.
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G08 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:23 pm Movement skills means being able to break the pocket, buy time, thrown on the run with accuracy etc. Marino was exceptional at moving in the pocket, but I wouldn't say he have movement skills to extend plays, throw on the run etc.
Again I'm not saying a big arm + athleticism = franchise QB. If that wsd the case, Jay Cutler would have been a God.
Look at today's game, you don't see Joe Montana anymore. Tom Brady is the GOAT and an exception.
The top I'd argue the top 5 QBs in the NFL have big arms and are athletic.
Peyton had a big arm for most of it (and Luck was a better athlete than people remember)
But they weren't breaking the pocket very much.
I also note that the Athletic guys who hold onto the ball forever (Wilson and Watson) wind up taking more sacks - having more fumbles etc - so that should be kept in mind
No one in the history of the league at the position is faster than the QB who reads the Defense and gets the ball out immidiately
I don't need them to run for 15 yards - I need them to manuever within the pocket to gave an extra 1-2 seconds and thus open up plays downfield
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Which QB do you think is easier to find and develop?RichH55 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:29 pmG08 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:23 pm Movement skills means being able to break the pocket, buy time, thrown on the run with accuracy etc. Marino was exceptional at moving in the pocket, but I wouldn't say he have movement skills to extend plays, throw on the run etc.
Again I'm not saying a big arm + athleticism = franchise QB. If that wsd the case, Jay Cutler would have been a God.
Look at today's game, you don't see Joe Montana anymore. Tom Brady is the GOAT and an exception.
The top I'd argue the top 5 QBs in the NFL have big arms and are athletic.
Peyton had a big arm for most of it (and Luck was a better athlete than people remember)
But they weren't breaking the pocket very much.
I also note that the Athletic guys who hold onto the ball forever (Wilson and Watson) wind up taking more sacks - having more fumbles etc - so that should be kept in mind
No one in the history of the league at the position is faster than the QB who reads the Defense and gets the ball out immidiately
I don't need them to run for 15 yards - I need them to manuever within the pocket to gave an extra 1-2 seconds and thus open up plays downfield
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G08 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:39 pmWhich QB do you think is easier to find and develop?RichH55 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:29 pm
Peyton had a big arm for most of it (and Luck was a better athlete than people remember)
But they weren't breaking the pocket very much.
I also note that the Athletic guys who hold onto the ball forever (Wilson and Watson) wind up taking more sacks - having more fumbles etc - so that should be kept in mind
No one in the history of the league at the position is faster than the QB who reads the Defense and gets the ball out immidiately
I don't need them to run for 15 yards - I need them to manuever within the pocket to gave an extra 1-2 seconds and thus open up plays downfield
Find? Thats tougher to answer
Develop? Easy. The guy who is accurate and reads defenses/makes faster decisions - Those are the hardest things to get better at IMHO
Or just get Trever Lawrence who is good at everything - built in a lab
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Exactly, and those guys don't grow on trees. This is where having the ability to make plays off-script is paramount; it was a huge, huge part of Patrick Mahomes' success in his MVP season.
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If you can read defenses and make smart throws, it makes it easier to make those off script plays when you have athleticism.
I think the arm strength thing is a little overrated. If a QB is being talked about as a top 50 pick, he's got an NFL arm.
I'm as big of a H/W/S dude as there is, but give me a smart QB who knows where to go with the ball and can navigate the pocket, while having the legs to get a 1st down on 3rd and 8 occasionally. I don't need a dude that can sling it from endzone to endzone and run for 125 yards a game.
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Kyle Boller is an interesting reference though. I think he was drafted about 17 years too early. Offenses have evolved so much since then... I think he would have been a much more successful QB in today's NFL.
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Kind of an interesting tweet that puts some things in perspective..