Excited Delirium Over Fields

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Otis Day
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:10 pm
wab wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:19 pm
I'm also interested in why he wants him to fail.

And I'm with you, unless it's the Packers or the prospect is just an outright dirtbag, I generally don't want anyone to fail. I want Lawrence to succeed because it's better for football if he does, and watching better football is good for fans.
I want everyone who isn't a Chicago Bear to fail. Yeah sure some of them are entertaining, but whatever.

It's been 35 years or something. Can we win one now? Pretty please. With sugar on top.
Damn!! That last comment makes me feel old. That was 2 life times ago.
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The Marshall Plan
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Otis Day wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:44 am
The Marshall Plan wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:10 pm

I want everyone who isn't a Chicago Bear to fail. Yeah sure some of them are entertaining, but whatever.

It's been 35 years or something. Can we win one now? Pretty please. With sugar on top.
Damn!! That last comment makes me feel old. That was 2 life times ago.
I'm sure you're the same way but dude I've got stories.

I got into the Bears in the mid-80s right in time for the Super Bowl. I'm in early grade school.

Stuff like my parents getting the roof done and I'm sitting on a stack of shingles watching (I believe) Walter Payton throwing for a TD against the Bucs(?) in those gorgeous Creamsicle uniforms.

The Mike Ditka Show with Johnny Morris.

Going to the Auto Show downtown to see Walter Payton. Meeting Mike Ditka (THE nicest guy and I was terrified of him.). I met Dave Duerson at (I think) a Blockbuster Video.

As soon as the TV commercials for Chevy hit the airwaves. As a child I would call the local Chevy guy and ask if they had the poster. They'd save one for me.

Remember those scratch off large sized cards at McDonalds? I don't even know how many of those I had.

All kinds of shit like that. I got hooked on Da Bears very early in life and it stuck.
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TMP we could have been twins man, this is almost identical to my Bears fandom origin story. I got hooked on the Bears a year or so before we won the Super Bowl, Walter Payton was my idol as a kid.

Anyhow you guys get where I'm coming from, I'm fucking tired of losing. And so when I say I want Lawrence to fail, it's not personal it's business.

I'm tired of seeing us get Cade McNown while the Vikings get Dante Culpepper.
I'm tired of seeing us get Cedric Benson while the Packers get Aaron Rodgers
I'm tired of seeing us get Curtis Enis while the Vikings get Randy Moss
I'm tired of seeing us get Mitch Trubisky while the Chiefs get Mahomes and the Texans get Watson
I'm tired of the Packers stomping on our nut sacks twice a year EVERY FUCKING YEAR

ENOUGH ALREADY

I want the OTHER GUYS to fail and US to get the great one, and honestly I don't understand how any Bears fan could feel differently. And yes, that means rooting for those other guys to fail - not everyone can succeed, that's just not how life works. It is NOT PERSONAL. It's our turn to win. In each of those scenarios above it was OUR GUY that failed. So yea, I'm rooting for the other QB's in this draft to fail. There were 5 QB's taken and when we look back on it, I want the story to be "how did the scouts/Jacksonville get it so wrong by passing on Fields for Lawrence". I want Lynch to get mercilessly ripped for taking Trey Lance over Fields. I want Jets nation to feel like we felt when we took Mitch over Watson/Mahomes - they took their whitey and were WRONG. Cause all that would mean WE WON for once.

And last bit...I am REALLY tired of this racial bias bullshit when it comes to QB's and the narrative that gets created by the media then parroted by morons in the internet. That video AZ posted was really smart about how the narrative drives so much, and no one bothered to adjust the narrative on Lawrence when they could have made all the exact same observations about him as they dinged Watson on. It just infuriates me to see it.
Last edited by dplank on Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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I still have the the McDonalds cards, a whole set. I had the poster as well and a subsequent one that came out.

Hell, I was 22 in January 1986. There was approximately 20 of us crammed in my buddie's dad's basement (he called it the "GHETTO"). the room we were in was no more than 10x8. Felt like you were at the game, no room to move in your seat and the bathrooms were a walk away (2 floors up). I was wearing my McMadman headband.

The game actually got boring since it was such an ass whooping. I still think the NFC Championship was the best playoff game and way more exciting.

Got together with quite a few of the same peeps for the next SB, 2006. Hester's KO return was magic. Then the game w ent to shit.
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@dplank
@Otis Day

I don't have to tell you guys this, but being a Bears fan is really an exercise in frustration.

It's 2021 and we FINALLY have a legitimate franchise QB prospect. Much more so than Cutler. The two don't even compare.

How many QBs have we been through. Like Mr. Plank said, how many times have we watched the draft and have seen the OBVIOUS pick go right by us and we draft some chump?

Wouldn't you have thought by now that somebody at sometime would've fixed QB at some point over the past 35 years?

RE: Racial Bias

I struggle with this one. OK so yeah Lawrence is your stereotypical Golden Boy Whitey with the blonde flowing hair. It does seem like he does nothing but shit gold bricks for the media. That kind of thing makes him look like a pretty boy and hopefully we see Mack drill his ass into the ground one of these days.

What drives the alleged racial bias? Jersey and ticket sales? But if they don't take the best player and the team suffers won't that hurt them more than that? Less prime time games, playoffs that kind of thing.

Is it the media that is racist? There are a bunch of black dudes on the NFL shows.

The owners?

I mean, I don't know. I'm not saying it doesn't exist. I'm not a denier that some people are dumb.

Fields dropping was just mind boggling and one of the dumber things I've seen and I'm ecstatic that we capitalized on it. Like seriously, Atlanta took a tight end before him. WTF.

Do we have any black guys or minorities that post here? I'd love to read what you've got to say on this.
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:11 am @dplank
@Otis Day

I don't have to tell you guys this, but being a Bears fan is really an exercise in frustration.

It's 2021 and we FINALLY have a legitimate franchise QB prospect. Much more so than Cutler. The two don't even compare.

How many QBs have we been through. Like Mr. Plank said, how many times have we watched the draft and have seen the OBVIOUS pick go right by us and we draft some chump?

Wouldn't you have thought by now that somebody at sometime would've fixed QB at some point over the past 35 years?

RE: Racial Bias

I struggle with this one. OK so yeah Lawrence is your stereotypical Golden Boy Whitey with the blonde flowing hair. It does seem like he does nothing but shit gold bricks for the media. That kind of thing makes him look like a pretty boy and hopefully we see Mack drill his ass into the ground one of these days.

What drives the alleged racial bias? Jersey and ticket sales? But if they don't take the best player and the team suffers won't that hurt them more than that? Less prime time games, playoffs that kind of thing.

Is it the media that is racist? There are a bunch of black dudes on the NFL shows.

The owners?

I mean, I don't know. I'm not saying it doesn't exist. I'm not a denier that some people are dumb.

Fields dropping was just mind boggling and one of the dumber things I've seen and I'm ecstatic that we capitalized on it. Like seriously, Atlanta took a tight end before him. WTF.

Do we have any black guys or minorities that post here? I'd love to read what you've got to say on this.
I think you’re engaging in a little bit of revisionist history with Cutler. He was coming off being a legitimate pro bowler not a 4th alternate injury replacement. Everyone was just as ecstatic when Cutler was traded for.

Unfortunately, while Cutler had had issues this organization was so poorly run they not only didn’t develop him they hindered his development and probably caused him to regress. Jerry Angelo’s tenure is a case study in what not to do when you trade for a QB.

Throw out a broken Orlando Pace at LT, retain Ron Turner and his HS offense, convert Devin Hester from DB to #1 WR, hire Mike Martz and trade Greg Olsen because Martz is too incompetent to figure out a way to use an elite talent like Olsen, etc etc. If Angelo had operated from the premise that since he gave up a lot for Cutler his focus needed to be on investing in his success instead of operating under the premise that Cutler would just magically make everyone better it might have been a different story.

The Bears have made terrible decisions with draft picks and passing on QBS but another reason they’ve struggled at the position is because this has been an incompetently run franchise that doesn’t know how to develop talented QB’s.

The jury is still out on this regime. I think despite his play calling issues Nagy is a good coach. But putting all of your eggs in a rookie with short arms (that played RT in college) as they appear to be doing, gives me some pause.

And Fields dropping because of race doesn’t make sense when Lance was the third pick. He fell because Shannahan was enamored with Lance, the Falcons have years of huge money committed to Ryan, the Bengals and Dolphins just drafted 1st round picks, Carolina traded for and apparently believes in Darnold, the surprise is the Broncos and that might have been affected by the Rodgers bombshell.

Also, the Vikings tried to trade with Carolina to get Fields but didn’t want to give up a 1st next year. So it’s not like he wasn’t coveted.
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TheWorldBreaker wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:34 am I think you’re engaging in a little bit of revisionist history with Cutler. He was coming off being a legitimate pro bowler not a 4th alternate injury replacement.
This is another example of why "Pro Bowler" is a dubious metric. Even voted vs substitute.

Cutler's team was a ho-hum 8-8, and his passer rating was a mediocre 86, good for 16th in the league, right in the middle of the pack, with regard to starters.
Cutler finished the season with career-highs in passing completions (384), passing attempts (616), passing yards (4,526), passing touchdowns (25), interceptions (18), rushing attempts (57) and rushing touchdowns (2).[82] At the time, his passing yards, completions and attempts were all single-season franchise records for the Broncos. He also had the most 300-yard passing games (8) in team history. For the season, Cutler ranked third in the NFL in completions (first in the AFC), second in passing attempts (first in the AFC), third in passing yards (first in the AFC) and seventh in passing touchdowns (third in the AFC).
He got overrated, simply because he threw a ton, and racked up a lot of mostly meaningless "volume stats".
TheWorldBreaker wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:34 am Everyone was just as ecstatic when Cutler was traded for.
Mostly.
But for the record, I'd like it noted that I was FURIOUS over the Cutler deal.
The Fields trade, I like (even though, as any high QB pick, he has a bust potential much higher than most people here are willing to admit).
Take that for what it's worth.
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For what it's worth, in my view:

* Trevor Laurence isn't a "generational talent" as much as he is a prototypical QB prospect - the size, accuracy, perceived ability to read the whole field, more than mobile enough - he's right out of central casting. Patrick Mahomes - I'm (obviously) saying this in hindsight - is a generational talent. He's got as good an arm as any I've ever seen, throws on target downfield darts with 3 guys hanging on his back, has elite pocket awareness and is supremely clutch. Can't really call him a prototype because you can't expect to find another player like him for many years to come. Laurence has a chance to be a front line franchise QB - much like the last prototype to enter the NFL (Andrew Luck) - but I don't see in him what we now see in Mahomes. I obviously could be dead wrong - which will lead to another "in hindsight" mea culpa - but that's how I see it at this point.

* Watson was a terrific college QB. The ultimate winner - as clutch if not more so than any major college QB in YEARS. He's also a good athlete with terrific running skills. While his arm isn't elite (had poor velocity at the combine), he has a knack of making downfield plays. All that said, he wasn't a "prototype" coming out - he didn't seem to have a particularly sturdy build, I already mentioned the lack of velocity on his throws, and he had a tendency to throw interceptions. He was an outstanding prospect - better than Trubisky (not a huge leap on my part), but didn't fit that "prototype" mold that still seems to enamor scouts and GMs.

* Justin Fields has as much raw ability as any QB that's come out in recent years (save for Mahomes). He has a rocket arm, is as well built as any QB taken since Cam Newton, has true breakaway speed and throws one of the best deep balls we'll see. Unless we think what we saw from Mac Jones a year ago with by far the best surrounding cast a QB has had in years will translate to the NFL regardless of who he plays with, it's more than safe to say that Fields' ceiling is higher than Jones. It doesn't mean he'll reach it, but, if he does, he'll put a LOT more stress on a defense - with his arm AND his legs - than Jones. I think Fields fell in part b/c he wasn't quite as sharp in 2020 as he was in 2019. I think the pandemic impacted him/the Ohio State passing game. I think he was either ill-prepared or struggled to dissect coverages presented to him by Northwestern and Indiana. I think some of the unsubstantiated noise around him (nonsense about his work ethic as an example) coupled with his seizure disorder also contributed to him dropping. All that said, in my opinion, the Bears have never had a QB in the building with Fields all around talent - and that includes Jay Cutler. The open question is whether he will "put it all together."
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:11 am
RE: Racial Bias

What drives the alleged racial bias?
Supremacy drives it, and institutionalized and cultural biases run deep. They frequently drive decisions that sustain themselves in spite of being sub-optimal. It's true. For the exact same reason very rich non-white people have not been able to get into certain clubs or neighborhoods even if they really have more to offer/contribute. They don't "belong". We claim to be a capitalist, "freedom rules" country - but heaven forbid if I want to hire a bunch of people from Bangalore because they blow the doors off of most people I can hire here. Really only a white person would question the existence of bias on the basis of economic or performance optimization.

Back to football:

We're so used to hearing people question the "processing" of the black guys - but you know if it is a white guy (hate to pick on 10 but it fits), it is "the Oline is crappy" and "that cocky uppity 17 WR is never where he should be". The elevation and apologetics around Mitch Trubisky is one of the better examples of institutionalized privilege.

Name the last time a white QB or player had their "cognitive ability" questioned in the draft. Or even in the pros, once their lack of in-game processing or composure is clearly obvious? It's a short list, if you can name any. This is no secret - it's right there in the open where white guys are praised for their try-hard work ethic or "savvy" and the black guys succeed because of their natural athletic advantage, as if it is separate from them. Some people get endless excuses and "nothing to see here" on truly awful performance, while others get the microscope - like Plank pointed out in the hypocrisy around the criticism of Fields vs other guys. It's baked into the culture. People even joke about it because it is so obvious. And so real.

Tell me exactly what it is about Sam Darnold that makes him so enticingly salvageable yet Dwayne Haskins is a dud/bust? Their stats are essentially identical, with Haskins having had less opportunity.

We have to understand that because we can cite examples of where something isn't the case, it doesn't mean that overwhelmingly and institutionally it is usually the case and rooted deeply in our culture and institutions to the point where indeed we do sub-optimize.
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Artbest wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:19 am I think some of the unsubstantiated noise around him (nonsense about his work ethic as an example) coupled with his seizure disorder also contributed to him dropping.
Good post, by the way.

I don't like the terms "noise" and "nonsense" because even though that's what they are they seem like kind of an "oh-well" shrug at what is super lazy proliferation of totally unjustified bias and uneven analysis. It really hurt Fields - not just his feelings, but his pocketbook to the tune of over $10MM. It should piss more people off than just Justin Fields.

The silver lining of a legit talent falling is landing on a better team and in a better situation. I'll bet on Fields' record over Lawrence and Wilsons. And even though the Niners are a good team they reached so hard for Lance that he's at big risk of being a disappointment. Given Shanahan and the approach of that team, I'll guess he'll succeed even if he struggles a bit. But again - over Fields? It makes no objective sense, given their situation.
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Moriarty wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:17 am
TheWorldBreaker wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:34 am Everyone was just as ecstatic when Cutler was traded for.
Mostly.
But for the record, I'd like it noted that I was FURIOUS over the Cutler deal.
The Fields trade, I like (even though, as any high QB pick, he has a bust potential much higher than most people here are willing to admit).
Take that for what it's worth.
I can confirm that Mori was full of dissent, not the least of which was due to the cost.

I don't think anyone is ignoring the prospect that Fields could bust. Certainly there's plenty of precedent for it. That doesn't mean people can't be excited about his potential, though.
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
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Hope for the Future:

That there's been an institutional bias against black QBs can't be argued, and in a way, it's been a self-perpetuating fact. In truth, there have been very few successful black franchise QBs. And much of that has occurred because major college programs have refused to install blacks as their QBs. It hasn't been until the last twenty years that that has truly begun to change.

Although Doug Wlliams won a Super Bowl back in 1988 as Super Bowl MVP throwing four TD passes, he lost his job to Mark Rypien the following year and nobody would pick him up. Moon was probably the first franchise black QB and he signed with Edmonton in the CFL because he thought he'd never be given a chance in the NFL. After six years, he came to the NFL and succeeded. Randall Cunningham was next, followed by Steve McNair, and then Donovan McNabb.

Unfortunately, none of those guys won a Super Bowl and there were many failures like Charlie Batch and Andre Ware. It should be noted that most of those early black QBs drafted went to smaller colleges like Eastern Michigan, UNLV, Houston, and Central Florida. Also unfortunately, there were many historic failures because of a perceived lack of intelligence, some most certainly justified. Prospects like Akili Smith, Vince Young, and Jamarcus Russell should be noted here, and Michael Vick couldn't be considered extremely brilliant either. But it should be noted that the black prospects had started to come from larger schools like Oregon, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Texas, LSU, and Auburn. Also unfortunately, the activism of somebody like Colin Kapernick probably put a lot of black QBs behind the eight ball.

Finally, with Russell Wilson, the NFL had a black franchise QB who actually won a Super Bowl. It should be noted that he also came from a large school in Wisconsin. Now, with the success of Mahomes and Watson over Trubisky, you'd think that everything would be on an even scale, but I don't think it's quite there yet, as Field's dropping suggests. Still there has been considerable progress. Ten years ago, Mac Jones would have been selected before either Fields or Lance. And last year, 10 teams had black QBs start opening day.

With Fields outshining everybody in this year's draft going forward as I expect, the bias should be entirely obliterated. :wave2: I mean when not one but TWO generational QBs are both black, how can it be otherwise. ;) Mahomes has opened the door. Now Fields will blow it off its hinges. :banana:

And much like the integration of the military has done so much for black equality throughout our society, I hope that this experience in the NFL will also make inroads into any institutional racial bias. When your heroes and role models are black, it can't help but permeate throughout society. Growing up, I had three heroes: my dad, Rahsaan Roland Kirk, and Walter Payton. Two of those three were black. It's kind of hard to look at any kind of white superiority when that's the case.

Just my two cents.
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Good post, Yogi. Agreed it's a process. Just because we're not there yet doesn't mean there hasn't been improvement (there has). But it isn't fast enough. It is weird to feel bad for Fields for falling to my team (and still being elated about it). LOL

I hope Fields helps tremendously in tearing down the forces that impacted him. It would be fitting. And good for us! :)

My other current beef (lol) is the assumptions surrounding the likelihood of a QB busting - of Fields busting. We hear over & over again that "X percent of first round QBs bust" as a generic, cautionary tale against getting too excited or "delirious" about Justin Fields.

But I reject that high-level proclamation on the grounds that it is context-free. It is comparison of apples and oranges. It isn't "good" QBs fault that "lesser" QBs are over-drafted for whatever reason. Teams are always in need of franchise QBs, so it isn't a surprise that QBs are "reached for" more than other players. So more guys busting DOES make sense. But it is still apples/oranges. You can't lump in the slam-dunk QBs with the guys who are drafted with real red flags. When guys bust you can almost always look back and say "well, we should have seen that because of X Y or Z in college (or their personal makeup)". It is always one or more things on the list below that stick out later as clear reasons they didn't work out.

So... let's play a game. List a first round QB who busted (or seriously disappointed) with the following traits in college:

- Athletically gifted with NFL-level size, strength, speed and big arm
- Good student academically
- No character issues
- Elite college passing stats
- Good judgement/decision-making and ball protection
- Pro level college passing performance (deep accuracy and success, timing, pro throws, zip, touch)
- Multiple years of playoff-level college experience (or regular play against other elite talent)
- Individual elite play on the highest stage, under the highest pressure

I can't think of one disappointing QB who checks all those boxes - Fields' boxes. Matt Leinart is close - but in terms of athleticism and arm he didn't make the transition to the NFL.

Once we make a list and calculate the number of players with attributes and experience similar to Fields who busted, THEN we can look at the total number of QBs drafted and calculate the likelihood of Fields busting.

The point is it isn't 50%. Or 40%. I maintain it is far closer to 2% likelihood that Justin Fields does not turn out to be a pretty good NFL QB.
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Moriarty wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:17 am
TheWorldBreaker wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:34 am I think you’re engaging in a little bit of revisionist history with Cutler. He was coming off being a legitimate pro bowler not a 4th alternate injury replacement.
This is another example of why "Pro Bowler" is a dubious metric. Even voted vs substitute.

Cutler's team was a ho-hum 8-8, and his passer rating was a mediocre 86, good for 16th in the league, right in the middle of the pack, with regard to starters.
Cutler finished the season with career-highs in passing completions (384), passing attempts (616), passing yards (4,526), passing touchdowns (25), interceptions (18), rushing attempts (57) and rushing touchdowns (2).[82] At the time, his passing yards, completions and attempts were all single-season franchise records for the Broncos. He also had the most 300-yard passing games (8) in team history. For the season, Cutler ranked third in the NFL in completions (first in the AFC), second in passing attempts (first in the AFC), third in passing yards (first in the AFC) and seventh in passing touchdowns (third in the AFC).
He got overrated, simply because he threw a ton, and racked up a lot of mostly meaningless "volume stats".
TheWorldBreaker wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:34 am Everyone was just as ecstatic when Cutler was traded for.
Mostly.
But for the record, I'd like it noted that I was FURIOUS over the Cutler deal.
The Fields trade, I like (even though, as any high QB pick, he has a bust potential much higher than most people here are willing to admit).
Take that for what it's worth.
Cutler’s stats weren’t meaningless volume stats, he had to throw a lot because Denver could only win in shootouts because the defense wasn’t good. Shanahan got fired in part because he couldn’t figure out how to fix the defense.

Also, while its record was pedestrian they were in the playoff hunt to the end of the season.

And there are always exceptions (some guy here was comparing Fields to Haskins as cause for concern) but the reaction was overwhelmingly positive and the prevailing belief is that they’d fixed the QB position, as it is now.
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I think that lists some things for sure on Fields - that we either don't know or have open questions on (True on Most QBs)

Pro Passing is a good chunk of reading Defenses, quick decisions, quick progressions, anticipation throws (you don't see that much at a school like tOSU - because if you wait on it the guy is 5 yards open because he was a 5 star and the Rutgers kid is actually there to go to school against his hopes and dreams - that is NOT Fields fault - but its just an unknown how it will go in the Pros)


It's the biggest variable

I'd also note - You don't know the Character question until you know it as a fan

It wasn't like Deshawn Watson's Draft Write Up said " Serial Sexual Abuser - maybe"


If its just Super Athletic/ Pretty Big Arm (Fields has a very good arm. but its not the howitzer some have had)
Good Grades/National Titles (I'll even up the ante for you there - since Fields didn't actually win the National Title), Elite Stats

Then the list is longer than you'd think (or Hope for)

The list of 1st Round QB bust or disappointments is more than you'd hope for generally - Most of the time there was a pretty good case for why they were in the 1st Round
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Lots of good posts here.

I've got a few different directions here so I'm going to try my best to organize all of it. These are more random thoughts than anything else.

1) The NFL can only have so many black QBs as there exists a pipeline in which to draft them from. From those QBs only a certain % are going to be elite by definition. If we want more black QBs drafted higher, we need more black QBs playing in high school and college.

2) Ryan Pace drafting Mitch was not an act of racism. Mitch was taken for a couple of reasons. I think he reminded Pace of Drew Brees. Pace also did not have a trusted cabinet of people around him to help make a qualified selection. Fox was on the way out. Therefore Loggains was too. Now compare that to Nagy and Flip. While I have my issues with Nagy, he and Flip are night and day v Fox and Loggains as advisors that Pace could trust with drafting a QB for the modern NFL.

The McCaskeys do not strike me as racist. With all the legendary black players they'd had over the years how could they be? The one caution I'd say, and correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there's a black guy in a prominent role in that front office.

3) It's very easy to blame race for whenever a black player is short changed. Elsewhere on this board, I think in the why Fields dropped thread, I laid out the logical reasons why those other teams passed on Fields. I'm not defending it, I'm just seeing things from their perspective. I do think Atlanta royally screwed up.

4) When was the last time that Bear fans as a collective were this united about being excited for a first round draft choice? Urlacher? When we drafted Fields it felt like something really good just happened. You can feel the positive energy coming from this. It never existed with Mitch. That wasn't Mitch's fault, it's just that drafted Watson was so damn obvious. With Fields we had a double whammy of positive energy. First, we got a QB. Second, he was supposed to go in the top 4 or 5.

5) Of all the QBs drafted ahead of Fields, I feel that Fields is going into the best situation. Even better than Mac Jones. Yes, Fields dropped to #11 cost him $10M or something like that, but if he does what he's capable of, he's going to come out $100M or more ahead and be King Of Chicago for the rest of his life.

Which of the QBs drafted from 1 - 10 is in a better situation than Fields? Not Lawrence. Wilson hell no. Maybe Trey Lance, but San Fran gutted their draft. They're going to have a hell of a time building around him. Mac Jones is now The Hoodie's apprentice, but Tom Brady showed last year that it wasn't all Hoodie for why he's great.

Fields is going to a huge market with a rabid and loyal fan base that is totally unified in being excited that he's here. He's got two QB whisperers with Nagy and Flip. He potentially has a top line defensive unit, a rebuilt OL, a legit RB, an elite WR (ARob) and an up and coming potential star in Mooney.

To me, he's in the best situation of all of those other QBs by an enormous margin. Fan support and team support combined, nobody is in a better situation than him.
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IE wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 1:19 pm Good post, Yogi. Agreed it's a process. Just because we're not there yet doesn't mean there hasn't been improvement (there has). But it isn't fast enough. It is weird to feel bad for Fields for falling to my team (and still being elated about it). LOL

I hope Fields helps tremendously in tearing down the forces that impacted him. It would be fitting. And good for us! :)

My other current beef (lol) is the assumptions surrounding the likelihood of a QB busting - of Fields busting. We hear over & over again that "X percent of first round QBs bust" as a generic, cautionary tale against getting too excited or "delirious" about Justin Fields.

But I reject that high-level proclamation on the grounds that it is context-free. It is comparison of apples and oranges. It isn't "good" QBs fault that "lesser" QBs are over-drafted for whatever reason. Teams are always in need of franchise QBs, so it isn't a surprise that QBs are "reached for" more than other players. So more guys busting DOES make sense. But it is still apples/oranges. You can't lump in the slam-dunk QBs with the guys who are drafted with real red flags. When guys bust you can almost always look back and say "well, we should have seen that because of X Y or Z in college (or their personal makeup)". It is always one or more things on the list below that stick out later as clear reasons they didn't work out.

So... let's play a game. List a first round QB who busted (or seriously disappointed) with the following traits in college:

- Athletically gifted with NFL-level size, strength, speed and big arm
- Good student academically
- No character issues
- Elite college passing stats
- Good judgement/decision-making and ball protection
- Pro level college passing performance (deep accuracy and success, timing, pro throws, zip, touch)
- Multiple years of playoff-level college experience (or regular play against other elite talent)
- Individual elite play on the highest stage, under the highest pressure

I can't think of one disappointing QB who checks all those boxes - Fields' boxes. Matt Leinart is close - but in terms of athleticism and arm he didn't make the transition to the NFL.

Once we make a list and calculate the number of players with attributes and experience similar to Fields who busted, THEN we can look at the total number of QBs drafted and calculate the likelihood of Fields busting.

The point is it isn't 50%. Or 40%. I maintain it is far closer to 2% likelihood that Justin Fields does not turn out to be a pretty good NFL QB.
I would say Marcus Mariota and Josh Rosen are the two recent examples who come close to that criteria.

Maybe Goff if you consider him a disappointment. Bradford maybe too, but injuries are really what did him in.
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Jameson is probably in that camp too?

Though he is not a good athlete so maybe that doesn't count? Or Crab Legs/Sexual Assault before the draft rather than after like Watson?

RGIII is on the list (didn't win enough?)

Tee Martin? Wasn't a high enough pick for this

Tua will be an interesting test case

Dewayne Haskins not a good enough athlete? Fair enough

Logan Thomas? Not a high enough pick
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"He's got two QB whisperers with Nagy and Flip."

I wish they would have whispered to either of Mitch or Foles not to suck.
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And I think people are discounting the situation Lawrence went to:

There is more talent on that team then people think (*)
(*) They were kind of actively tanking last year and also shutting people down if any injury
(**) They also had a lot of high draft picks this year and Cap Space (used in part) and more Cap Space next year

They also didn't need to mortgage the future in any way to get him - They just had to say - With a straight face "We think Mike Glennon gives us the best chance to win" last year.

We will see though!
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TheWorldBreaker wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:11 pm
Moriarty wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:17 am

This is another example of why "Pro Bowler" is a dubious metric. Even voted vs substitute.

Cutler's team was a ho-hum 8-8, and his passer rating was a mediocre 86, good for 16th in the league, right in the middle of the pack, with regard to starters.



He got overrated, simply because he threw a ton, and racked up a lot of mostly meaningless "volume stats".



Mostly.
But for the record, I'd like it noted that I was FURIOUS over the Cutler deal.
The Fields trade, I like (even though, as any high QB pick, he has a bust potential much higher than most people here are willing to admit).
Take that for what it's worth.
Cutler’s stats weren’t meaningless volume stats, he had to throw a lot because Denver could only win in shootouts because the defense wasn’t good. Shanahan got fired in part because he couldn’t figure out how to fix the defense.
I think you may be misunderstanding what I'm trying to say.

It's not that Cutler's stats came in meaningless game situations (like garbage time stat padding).
It's that they are aggregate (volume) based stats, that sound super at first, but when you consider them more carefully, they aren't impressive at all.

It's like getting all excited that your kicker had the most total points of any kicker in the league last year. Then you look closer and see that his FG% and XP% were barely average - he just got that many points because he had the most attempts of anyone in the league.

Cutler getting 3rd most completions or breaking franchise yardage records sounds great...until you also consider that he had 2nd most attempts and also broke franchise attempt records.
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RichH55 wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:56 pm Jameson is probably in that camp too?

Though he is not a good athlete so maybe that doesn't count? Or Crab Legs/Sexual Assault before the draft rather than after like Watson?

RGIII is on the list (didn't win enough?)

Tee Martin? Wasn't a high enough pick for this

Tua will be an interesting test case

Dewayne Haskins not a good enough athlete? Fair enough

Logan Thomas? Not a high enough pick
I think the academic performance may knock Winston off the list (for some reason I seem to remember that was a weakness of his - I know that knocks JaMarcus Russell off the list - that dude was dumb as a box of rocks from everything I remember - but that related to scaling back the playbook not sure about school, but I think it would hold true there as well).
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damn ... you guys took me on a nostalgic road trip of memories I didn't want to go on ... Cade The Clown McNown, Cedric Bongman Benson , and so many more ... brings back to memories of games in which these guys sucked at their worst and yes, much of the pain inflicted on us by them happened long ago, but the wounds are still easily re-opened by the mere mention of them

so c'mon - for the sake of all that is good in the world, look at the thread subject title and move on to what we are all hoping is a brighter future than we had reason to expect before the draft ... have some faith ... grasp at the hope we now have that is not an empty promise ... embrace what is ahead and prepare to smile as we watch our greatest hope develop before our eyes, one step at a time, before he fully spreads his wings

embrace the joy ahead, not the sad despicable failures of the past

say it with me - in Fields we trust

and smile when you're saying it

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Arkansasbear wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:18 pm
RichH55 wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:56 pm Jameson is probably in that camp too?

Though he is not a good athlete so maybe that doesn't count? Or Crab Legs/Sexual Assault before the draft rather than after like Watson?

RGIII is on the list (didn't win enough?)

Tee Martin? Wasn't a high enough pick for this

Tua will be an interesting test case

Dewayne Haskins not a good enough athlete? Fair enough

Logan Thomas? Not a high enough pick
I think the academic performance may knock Winston off the list (for some reason I seem to remember that was a weakness of his - I know that knocks JaMarcus Russell off the list - that dude was dumb as a box of rocks from everything I remember - but that related to scaling back the playbook not sure about school, but I think it would hold true there as well).

That's a bad call on Winston

One of the schools that recruited him hardest: Stanford

http://www.uatrav.com/opinion/article_7 ... 4aa95.html

"According to multiple reports, Winston graduated high school with a 4.0 GPA, juggling multiple honor’s courses, and being one of the most highly recruited athletes in his class- in 2 sports."


https://seminoles.com/winston-and-andre ... ic-honors/

" Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston and all-conference freshman safety Nate Andrews were named to the 2013 All-Atlantic Coast Conference Academic Football Team, announced Monday by ACC Commissioner John Swofford."
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RichH55 wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:33 pm
Arkansasbear wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:18 pm
I think the academic performance may knock Winston off the list (for some reason I seem to remember that was a weakness of his - I know that knocks JaMarcus Russell off the list - that dude was dumb as a box of rocks from everything I remember - but that related to scaling back the playbook not sure about school, but I think it would hold true there as well).

That's a bad call on Winston

One of the schools that recruited him hardest: Stanford

http://www.uatrav.com/opinion/article_7 ... 4aa95.html

"According to multiple reports, Winston graduated high school with a 4.0 GPA, juggling multiple honor’s courses, and being one of the most highly recruited athletes in his class- in 2 sports."


https://seminoles.com/winston-and-andre ... ic-honors/

" Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston and all-conference freshman safety Nate Andrews were named to the 2013 All-Atlantic Coast Conference Academic Football Team, announced Monday by ACC Commissioner John Swofford."
Fair enough like I said I wasn’t sure but for some reason that was coming to mind. So we can check that box off for him, but no way you check off the character box. He had plenty going on the keeps him from getting credit for that.
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:22 pm 2) Ryan Pace drafting Mitch was not an act of racism. Mitch was taken for a couple of reasons. I think he reminded Pace of Drew Brees. Pace also did not have a trusted cabinet of people around him to help make a qualified selection. Fox was on the way out. Therefore Loggains was too. Now compare that to Nagy and Flip. While I have my issues with Nagy, he and Flip are night and day v Fox and Loggains as advisors that Pace could trust with drafting a QB for the modern NFL.

The McCaskeys do not strike me as racist. With all the legendary black players they'd had over the years how could they be? The one caution I'd say, and correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there's a black guy in a prominent role in that front office
There's a difference between racism and racial bias. Racism is intentional--"I'm not taking that player because he's back." Racial bias involves more subconscious determinations, ones where the person doesn't even realize that he's carrying such a bias. I think that might have something to do with Pace's Trubisky decision. There's was no reason whatsoever that Mitchell should have been considered a better prospect than either Mahomes or Watson, particularly Mahomes, but Pace actually traded up to insure he got him. Hard to explain that one.

As to the McCaskeys, we shouldn't forget that the Bears drafted and started Vince Evans back in the seventies. Although Papa Bear was still alive and active back then as was George Jr., so hard to say what kind of voice the McCaskeys would have had. Probably not much.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 7:24 pm
RichH55 wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:33 pm


That's a bad call on Winston

One of the schools that recruited him hardest: Stanford

http://www.uatrav.com/opinion/article_7 ... 4aa95.html

"According to multiple reports, Winston graduated high school with a 4.0 GPA, juggling multiple honor’s courses, and being one of the most highly recruited athletes in his class- in 2 sports."


https://seminoles.com/winston-and-andre ... ic-honors/

" Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston and all-conference freshman safety Nate Andrews were named to the 2013 All-Atlantic Coast Conference Academic Football Team, announced Monday by ACC Commissioner John Swofford."
Fair enough like I said I wasn’t sure but for some reason that was coming to mind. So we can check that box off for him, but no way you check off the character box. He had plenty going on the keeps him from getting credit for that.

True - though there is Football Character and then off the field character

Some people might commit crimes - but really, really love Football (Michael Irvin comes to mind) -They can be both a menace to society and to the opposing teams coaching staff

Atrain saved a guy (or at least helped?) from a burning car


I'd note that we have zero idea on that with Fields
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Winston was no idiot, to be sure, at least academically. My issues with him have always been more off the field than on (50 INTs notwithstanding).
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
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Raping and groping women and stealing sodas and crab legs isn't exactly indicative of brilliance.
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AZ_Bearfan wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:39 pm I hope the Fields vs Lawrence battle goes on for the next 15 years. Maybe they'll even get a shot at settling the debate like gentlemen in a Superbowl some day.

But I definitely thank Lawrence for just being alive and in the same town as Fields growing up. He's a large part of the chip on Fields shoulder.
Same here, that will be so much God damned fun to watch. Love that Lawrence is in the AFC and Fields is in the NFC... maybe a handful of Super Bowl matchups :D
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