Yogi da Bear wrote: ↑Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:20 pm
RichH55 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:36 am
"How's that for basic math."
Terrible?
Do you think Kyle Boller factors in here? At least its not as bad as saying we should "EASILY" be able to get 7 Day 2 Picks. 7. From 3. Easily. Wow.
But to educate the tired masses.
Choices you have to make:
"This is my whole point--we simply have too many holes to fill with bona fide players to worry about the Compensatory Pick formula, way too many."
Ummmm. Ok.
1). You should factor in Hicks, Dalton, Graham, and Ifedi (*) - NOT ALL 4 mind you - but reasonably/relatively conservatively - 2 of the 4 signing before the Draft for more than 3 million a year.
That adds to your FA out list for the formula. Again, 2022 is a particularly large year for Bears losing FA - with Arob being potentially the 3rd Rounder
So math 1.
2). Math 2. You can add players (putting aside the draft that should add 4-6 players) that DONT count against the formula.
You probably can expect EVERY year multiple signings for guys closer to Vet Min - or at least closer to 2 million - (OJ Howard would have counted as a less than guy)
You can also sign cut guys (other guys can count like Grant with contract stuff) - BUT the easiest is cut guys.
Would you rather sign JC Tretter or the rotational DE? Tretter gets you a 3rd.....
3) You can also sign guys after the draft - they don't count against this "Esoteric" formula (Which you went from not understanding to grandstanding on - Nice 180)
Every year there are guys cut after the draft AND guys who wait til after the draft - starters. Guys to fill your roster.
Guys who take the 1 year prove it deal. Every year. So I have to add a Safety? Ok.
So putting away We have to add 10-12 guys! It's not actually that hard to do - while doing it smart
4) Look at the trade offs. You can take the first 3 FA we signed - whichever ones you like the best. They shouldn't cost you a 3rd. You just have to get more careful at that stage. (*) Or even play a bit of hard ball - Looks like if you beat Morrow up for like 500 K on the deal that he wouldn't count against the formula.
(*) There are other guys like Gipson, Ogletree, etc. But just because they are FA doesn't mean they have a ton of market value (BEARS MENTIONING WHEN ONE LOOKS AT 2023 - Dont try and act like Attachou and Blackson are both getting nice contracts)
Also - what on earth are you talking about for 2023? "In 2023, we have seven players currently earning or projecting to earn a qualifying amount for the Compensatory Formula. "
Where on earth are you getting those numbers? Do you think Blackson or Attaochu are going to both be prime FA ? Next years FA crop from the Bears - is pretty weak. And that's before you factor in resignings (other than R. Smith)
The bloodletting roster wise is THIS offseason.
And R. Smith (I always careful noted I expected him resigned) - large percentage to be resigned - Do you disagree there?
That list for '23 came straight from Sportstrac. That's why I said players either currently making or scheduled to make. Apparently the cutoff for qualifying is somewhere between 2.8 and 2.5 mill. So for '23 right now you have Foles, Pringle, Smith, Morrow, Atchu, Blackson, and Montgomery. And that doesn't include St. Brown.
As to your Muhammad question, you were giving a completely false narrative. I'm dealing with reality here and the reality is NOT Muhammad or a third rounder. Right NOW, the reality is a third rounder for three of Poles' five signings. So which three of Patrick, Muhammad, Jones, Pringle, or Morrow are you willing to give up for a third? Myself, I'd rather have the players. And going forward, I only see more qualified signings by Poles which should increase that difference even more.
A) 2023 stuff
Yeah. Do you see that list for 2023? Most at the bottom end if at all - none in huge positions of playing time DL wise.
Just do a bit of critical analysis there - that isn't a group that is likely to garner many - - in the way of comp picks - Which is especially true
A) Montgomery is the best of the bunch - HOWEVER HB is not typically, even in FA, paid a premium dollar amount
B) Resignings (especially IF guys like Pringle and Morrow (*)pan out
C). We have 100+ cap room next year - and Poles will have seen every one - day in, day out in the building for a year - Plus Rookie QB contract
(*) Morrow is a 1 year signing. And next offseason is either : No Comp picks or if you squeek one out by losing a guy like Morrow - Maybe a 6th or 7th? That's a bad process
Please just think on it a little bit - 2023 is not a year I am worrying about the compensatory pick charts for the Bears.
B) 2022 Compensatory. "As to your Muhammad question, you were giving a completely false narrative"
Are you just going to ignore the 4 players we have that are FA -and the (FEEL FREE TO DISAGREE) fair notion that I think at least 2 of them sign for 3 million or more?
That is like a baseline question. I am dealing with the facts on the ground. No, they haven't signed yet. But what odds do you put that they WONT (prior to draft)
You don't think someone is going to give Dalton like a 1 year, 4-5 Million dollar deal to be the Vet Backup QB? Hicks is going to have to take the Vet min?
Really?
So unless you think the notion that (**) 2 of the 4 sign is outlandish - then how is it a false narrative?
(**) Maybe Poles just has big Brass ones and thinks ALL of Ifedi, Graham, Dalton, and Hicks get 3 + - And he already played the Comp game perfectly. It's possible (though not probable IMHO)
And Morrow for starters - It's a 1 year deal (you are projecting him as a comp guy next year) - Maybe I take the 3rd in 2023 rather than a year of Morrow and maybe a 7th in 2024? And Muhammed - Rotational DE
Under any reading - you get to keep the Top 3 FA we signed (however you view those top 3) - and its after those that you need to be careful (IMHO - again maybe you think none of our 4 FA sign and its not even that - we disagree if so)
Yogi - you can also sign ANY guy who got cut - and they dont qualify for the formula . You don't think a JC Tretter, or Myles Jack, or Landry, etc, etc could be a guy for 2022?
Poles is looking for good value FA guys - OK. A 3rd Rounder on a rookie contract won't be a good value guy?