Rookie minicamp

[Grizzled]

Burrow was presumed to be the starter from the second he was drafted. Herbert took over 2 games into the season when the Chargers QB was injured during a medical procedure. Both had offenses tailored to their skill sets plus Burrow has a fast release. The Bears did no favors to Fields in almost anything his rookie year, from the poor pass blocking (most sacks in the league) to plays not designed to use his strengths to WRs (except Mooney) who didn't either give a damn or didn't get enough separation.

[wab]

I'm honestly getting very tired of every thread becoming an argument about Fields. How you can turn a rookie minicamp thread into yet another circlejerk...it frankly astounds me.

[cblaz11]

Apparently Zach Thomas impressed a lot of people at rookie camp…could be a name to watch.

[Yogi da Bear]

It's really not even a hot take. Very few QB's are so transcendent that you can roll out there with one of the worst two WR/TE groups in the league and still post high end numbers - it's just extremely rare. The examples that keep getting pointed out where someone succeeds in spite of having garbage weapons around them are, in fact, HOF caliber players. I went ahead and put the list out there and I'm waiting for someone to disagree with where I have our weapons ranked in the league - if someone wants to make a case that we're higher than I think, let's hear it.

I thought I did. Maybe I don't see this group as being as bad as you do.

Mooney is a proven 1000 yard guy even playing as a #2 like he did in 2021. Pringle had half his yardage and catches in 2021 alternating with two others at KC and should do better this year. Are either of them good enough to virtually take over a game? No, but then one was a 5th round pick and the other an UDFA and together they're costing us less than $3 mil this year.

That's two starters who put up over 1600 yards receiving in 2021 for less than $3 mil. That just a shade more than Davante Adams had in 2021 but we couldn't buy Davante Adams cleats for $3 mil if he was in them. Assuming both stay healthy and play all 17 games this year what do you feel they can produce; number of catches, yardage, tds? Individual or combined.

It's gonna be tough to come up with estimates for Jones because we don't know how much he'll be used as a WR vs his other duties but let's estimate 600 yards or so like Mooney did as a rookie. We don't know what St. Brown can do but like Pringle at least here he won't be pushed as far down on the depth chart and hopefully he has better rapport with Fields than Rodgers.

That's our top four. What can we expect from just those four WR? 2500 yards? 2800 yards? 3000 yards?

We don't know who the other 2 or 3 will be but Newsome will likely be one who may share snaps at Slot WR provided he makes the team and then we have another half dozen or so competing for a spot. Is it a stellar cast of proven players? No. It's a cast of mostly unknowns like many other teams have. They have little or no previous history to go by so we'll have to wait to see how well they produce but at least one or two should produce something this year.

At TE Kmet caught 60 passes for just over 600 yards in 2021. Horsted only caught two passes but both were TDs. He should get a better shot this year. Both could do a little better especially Horsted. Historically O'Shaughnessy is good for another 250 yards and then we have some other prospects. So being conservative lets say 1000 yards from our TE. I agree it should be more but then we don't know how much TE will figure into Getsy's passing game vs say his RB.

So very conservatively and without considering the RB this bunch should be able to ring up at least somewhere between 3500 and 4000 yards in 2022. When was the last time we had a QB throw for 4000 yards? Never? If you want me to rank them I'd say bottom third but they sure as hell are not as bad as some of the WR we trucked out over the years or even last year. With ARob we may have looked better on paper but what happened? ARob mailed it in and only had 38 catches for just over 400 yards.

I'll just say I don't believe it's as bad as it looks now or will look once they start playing and I'll stand by that ready to eat crow if I'm wrong.

I'm with Bearfact on all this, but I'd like to add some.

First, on Mooney, I don't think he's being given near enough credit. His stats his first two years are eerily similar to Tyreek Hill's:

Darnell Mooney:
Year #1: 61 recs, 631 yds, 4 TDs
Year #2: 81 recs, 1055 yds, 4 TDs

Tyreek Hill:
Year #1: 61 recs, 593 yds, 6 TDs
Year #2: 75 recs, 1183 yds, 7 TDs

That's not saying that Mooney is necessarily going to blossom into Hill this year, but Mooney's working out this offseason so extensively with Fields, as has been reported, is only going to help him. I expect him to be much better than he was last year, particularly if he can eliminate the drops that resulted in picks.

As to the rookies, the one thing that you can say is that Poles drafted for potential, for ALL the rookies. Their athleticism is through the roof. We've already talked enough about our first three picks, but look at the rest. Braxton Jones' RAS is damn near what Ikem Ekwonu's is and better than Charles Cross (the third OT taken). Zach Thomas runs a 4.96 with "great" agility traits. Dominique Robinson is another with outstanding agility traits. Through the roof actually. Doug Kramer's RAS (8.47) compares very favorably with Tyler Linderbaum's 8.80 (first center chosen) and is far better than Luke Fortner's 6.86 (the second center chosen). Trestan Ebner has great straight line speed and is damn good receiver who runs good routes. And these aren't even considering Elijah Hicks, Ja'Tyre Carter, and Trenton Gill.

I would like to take a moment here to point out another UDFA. I've already brought up Cyrus Holder who I think has a shot. Another one is Chase Allen at TE. He only ran a 4.79, but he sure seems much faster on the field:



Finally, I'd like to talk about Equanimeous St. Brown. Many are discounting him, but I noticed that many of those discounting him are also those who clamored for George Pickens. Thing is, ESB is much bigger (6'5", 214 to 6'3”,195), presumably stronger (20 reps to no attempts), and nearly as fast (4.48 to 4.47). His RAS score was rated as “ELITE.” Plus he doesn’t have the baggage and has four years of NFL experience in OUR offense with OUR offensive coordinator.

So what’s my point in all of this? It’s this. All these guys have potential. Serious athletic potential. Does this mean they’ll be successful? Of course not. But when was the last time you could say either our offensive line or our wide receiver corps had potential?

With that, I think that Poles has done his job through the draft. Now, it’s on the coaches. I don’t know how good the coaches are. Nobody does. They haven’t had a chance to prove themselves yet. The one thing I suspect though is that they will focus on our players’ strengths and adapt to them. I think that Getsy will play to JF1’s strengths and run an offense accordingly and not try to cage into a particular system that had already proven woefully inadequate.

As I consider all this, I can’t help but think that Poles isn’t necessarily going to sign anymore FA linemen. I think he might be satisfied with what he has. The more I look at Braxton Jones, the more I think he may well be our starting LT on opening day. Crazy? Perhaps. But he does have the athleticism for it. He’ll fight it out with Larry Borom. But why bring in an old, slow, veteran LT who can’t run the zone system Getsy wants to run, when you have somebody perfectly capable of running it despite his inexperience. One thing I know, he couldn’t be worse off than all the OTs Nagy left on an island last year despite being hopelessly outclassed.
Remember too, that between Scantling and ESB, Poles chose ESB, quite early in fact. Presumably, he did so at the behest of Getsy, who was in a position to know them the best. Unlike many here, I have a much higher expectation of ESB. He’s an elite athlete according to his RAS, and he has the experience in the precise system that we’re running. Getsy certainly didn’t have him brought here to sit him on the sideline.

Finally, the change in offensive philosophy can’t be emphasized enough. We have a very varied and strong RB room. Expect it to be used. I don’t think we’ll ever hear Getsy say, “I wasn’t brought here to run the I.” If that’s what it takes, I think Getsy will do precisely that. And incidentally Matt, yes, you were brought here to run the I, if that’s what it took to win. It wasn’t so that you could jack off to your own offensive playbook.

In the end, I think our offense is going to be considerably better than others believe. I think we’ll plays to Fields’ strengths, while our WRs are much better than the consensus. JF1 will make them even better, as will our play action game coming off a strong running game that even includes a fullback. We’re going to be so much more diverse than a mere gimmick. We’re actually going to have some meat and potatoes. And as to our failure to address the OL in free agency, let me console DP a bit: would you rather race in the Daytona 500 with a rookie in a top flight Nascar or a veteran in a decrepit old jalopy? Lol Stop making excuses for Justin before excuses even need to be made.

[The Marshall Plan]

I'm honestly getting very tired of every thread becoming an argument about Fields. How you can turn a rookie minicamp thread into yet another circlejerk...it frankly astounds me.

We're good like that. What can I say? The dogs are hungry.

This is actually pretty mild compared to Cutler and certainly Mitch. Remember the halcyon days of the Mitch arguments especially the first game against Green Bay in Nagy's second year? Those were the good times.

I can't wait for Week 4 of the season when the yelling and screaming is in full bloom like spring daisies. Even though we'll be 3-1.

Or when we're screaming that Coach runs too much or too little. Passes too much or too little.

Right now my Sundays involve watching golf and it's not even like Tiger Woods is playing except for The Masters. Do you have any idea how fucking boring that is?

What's the over / under on the date in which the first Fire Coach Eberflus thread gets made? August? Maybe October?

[dave99]

It's really not even a hot take. Very few QB's are so transcendent that you can roll out there with one of the worst two WR/TE groups in the league and still post high end numbers - it's just extremely rare. The examples that keep getting pointed out where someone succeeds in spite of having garbage weapons around them are, in fact, HOF caliber players. I went ahead and put the list out there and I'm waiting for someone to disagree with where I have our weapons ranked in the league - if someone wants to make a case that we're higher than I think, let's hear it.

I thought I did. Maybe I don't see this group as being as bad as you do.

Mooney is a proven 1000 yard guy even playing as a #2 like he did in 2021. Pringle had half his yardage and catches in 2021 alternating with two others at KC and should do better this year. Are either of them good enough to virtually take over a game? No, but then one was a 5th round pick and the other an UDFA and together they're costing us less than $3 mil this year.

That's two starters who put up over 1600 yards receiving in 2021 for less than $3 mil. That just a shade more than Davante Adams had in 2021 but we couldn't buy Davante Adams cleats for $3 mil if he was in them. Assuming both stay healthy and play all 17 games this year what do you feel they can produce; number of catches, yardage, tds? Individual or combined.

It's gonna be tough to come up with estimates for Jones because we don't know how much he'll be used as a WR vs his other duties but let's estimate 600 yards or so like Mooney did as a rookie. We don't know what St. Brown can do but like Pringle at least here he won't be pushed as far down on the depth chart and hopefully he has better rapport with Fields than Rodgers.

That's our top four. What can we expect from just those four WR? 2500 yards? 2800 yards? 3000 yards?

We don't know who the other 2 or 3 will be but Newsome will likely be one who may share snaps at Slot WR provided he makes the team and then we have another half dozen or so competing for a spot. Is it a stellar cast of proven players? No. It's a cast of mostly unknowns like many other teams have. They have little or no previous history to go by so we'll have to wait to see how well they produce but at least one or two should produce something this year.

At TE Kmet caught 60 passes for just over 600 yards in 2021. Horsted only caught two passes but both were TDs. He should get a better shot this year. Both could do a little better especially Horsted. Historically O'Shaughnessy is good for another 250 yards and then we have some other prospects. So being conservative lets say 1000 yards from our TE. I agree it should be more but then we don't know how much TE will figure into Getsy's passing game vs say his RB.

So very conservatively and without considering the RB this bunch should be able to ring up at least somewhere between 3500 and 4000 yards in 2022. When was the last time we had a QB throw for 4000 yards? Never? If you want me to rank them I'd say bottom third but they sure as hell are not as bad as some of the WR we trucked out over the years or even last year. With ARob we may have looked better on paper but what happened? ARob mailed it in and only had 38 catches for just over 400 yards.

I'll just say I don't believe it's as bad as it looks now or will look once they start playing and I'll stand by that ready to eat crow if I'm wrong.

You have a point. This is a team in transition and we can expect some tough losses. But this should also be a team that finally establishes an identity and will be much faster and tougher than anything we have seen for a while.
It appears that Poles and company are expecting a substantial boost from change in scheme. They may be overrating this, I know some folks thing they are, but at this point at least they seem pretty confident about their plan. Almost everyone they signed or drafted fit a profile of being athletic, fast and competitive with a high motor.
If Fields and the team buy in and things begin to click we may all be surprised or at the very least entertained.
Which would be nice for a change.

[artbest01]

IMO, two things are simultaneously true. 1, QBs like Joe Burrow and (especially) Justin Herbert were better than Justin Fields as rookies - independent of their supporting cast. That said 2. Fields had, on balance, less talent around him than either of those two. It can also be argued - and has been by people who know the game (including Dan Orlovsky) that Fields' likely had far "worse coaching" than either Herbert or Burrow - or Mac Jones.

The talent around Fields now is not the envy of teams across the league. There are no Jamar Chases or Tyreek Hills or Stefon Diggs or Travis Kelce's on this team. There are no Deebo Samuels or George Kittles. The oline is in transition - their best pass protector a year ago was a 40 year old they signed off of a fishing boat.

All of this being understood, Fields needs to show dramatic improvement regardless of what's around him. He can cut WAY down on turnovers, get rid of the ball faster and on time, throw for more TDs than INTs and be far more efficient. I do suspect the scheme will benefit him. I think the pieces around him, while far from elite, have the kind of traits that fit what he does best. The Bears will stink, they'll lose more than they win - but Fields can still show that he's the QB of the future. If he's terrible, we won't be able to simply "blame Poles and Getsy."

[The Cooler King]

Interesting that they don’t have Zach Thomas playing RT because it feels like confirmation that Jenkins is staying there and the competition is at LT

One thing I like about Poles and Getsy is that they seem to want to play guys at their natural position, most effective, position. No pounding square pegs into round holes like we saw under Pace/Nagy.

This honestly not a complaint I get in regards to the OL. Injuries caused a vast majority of line shifting which is the case with every NFL OLine. Packers have been praised for having guys like Turner and Patrick plug holes where holes showed up.

Consistency can be important but guys are more than capable of moving with a dedicated shift too. And as a rule your top two backups basically have to shift.

[dplank]

Doing it by necessity, with vets, yes. Doing it by design, with rookies, no. Rookies have a lot to learn when they transition to the NFL, adding a new position to that learning curve is bad coaching.

[RichH55]

IMO, two things are simultaneously true. 1, QBs like Joe Burrow and (especially) Justin Herbert were better than Justin Fields as rookies - independent of their supporting cast. That said 2. Fields had, on balance, less talent around him than either of those two. It can also be argued - and has been by people who know the game (including Dan Orlovsky) that Fields' likely had far "worse coaching" than either Herbert or Burrow - or Mac Jones.

The talent around Fields now is not the envy of teams across the league. There are no Jamar Chases or Tyreek Hills or Stefon Diggs or Travis Kelce's on this team. There are no Deebo Samuels or George Kittles. The oline is in transition - their best pass protector a year ago was a 40 year old they signed off of a fishing boat.

All of this being understood, Fields needs to show dramatic improvement regardless of what's around him. He can cut WAY down on turnovers, get rid of the ball faster and on time, throw for more TDs than INTs and be far more efficient. I do suspect the scheme will benefit him. I think the pieces around him, while far from elite, have the kind of traits that fit what he does best. The Bears will stink, they'll lose more than they win - but Fields can still show that he's the QB of the future. If he's terrible, we won't be able to simply "blame Poles and Getsy."

Art - Burrow didn't have Chase as a Rookie. He had a worse OL than Fields

We are talking a Washed AJ Green. (500 yards, 2 TD) and Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd

The kind of WR corps that would be an automatic Fields stats dont count!!!! WR crew here

[RichH55]

One thing I like about Poles and Getsy is that they seem to want to play guys at their natural position, most effective, position. No pounding square pegs into round holes like we saw under Pace/Nagy.

This honestly not a complaint I get in regards to the OL. Injuries caused a vast majority of line shifting which is the case with every NFL OLine. Packers have been praised for having guys like Turner and Patrick plug holes where holes showed up.

Consistency can be important but guys are more than capable of moving with a dedicated shift too. And as a rule your top two backups basically have to shift.

When your QB gets the ball our super fast - reads the defenses perfectly, etc. You can get away with having Billy Turner as a key piece at Tackle.

If you have Fields - you say With Turner as a Tackle he needs to play like a HOFer!!!

Watch the Packers Rams tape - there are multiple plays where Donald beats his guy clean and instantly and Rodgers makes into a positive play (usually not even taking a Hit)

It's Night and Day

[RichH55]

Rich as I said, it’s a combination of lack of weapons AND bad OL. Weapons are worst or second worst in the NFL (show me where you’d rank them and specifically who you think we are better than), and OL sucks particularly in pass protection.

Burrow has elite weapons, too 3 in the NFL. Cousins isn’t far behind with Jefferson and Thielen. Some guys like Mahomes has had both weapons and strong OL.

Take the whole point, not part of it.

Specific to weapons, that’s where the HOF comment comes from. Brady and Rodgers and maybe Brees pulled off big numbers with shit weapons around them - they are all HOF players. Are there others? If so, please share. The two examples you brought up support my point completely.

Yeah - Burrow as a Rookie- No Chase.

Your mileage on Tyler Boyd goes further than mine good sir

[dplank]

Rich as I said, it’s a combination of lack of weapons AND bad OL. Weapons are worst or second worst in the NFL (show me where you’d rank them and specifically who you think we are better than), and OL sucks particularly in pass protection.

Burrow has elite weapons, too 3 in the NFL. Cousins isn’t far behind with Jefferson and Thielen. Some guys like Mahomes has had both weapons and strong OL.

Take the whole point, not part of it.

Specific to weapons, that’s where the HOF comment comes from. Brady and Rodgers and maybe Brees pulled off big numbers with shit weapons around them - they are all HOF players. Are there others? If so, please share. The two examples you brought up support my point completely.

Yeah - Burrow as a Rookie- No Chase.

Your mileage on Tyler Boyd goes further than mine good sir

You’re clearly avoiding my question

You’re so missing the point. Burrow without Chase threw 13 TDs and had a sub 90 QBR. Burrow with Chase was one if the best QBs in football. Game set match.

Where is Fields Chase so we can hope for a similar big leap?

The questions you’re ignoring: which teams do you rank below Chicago for WR/TE weapons, and which non HOF QBs can you point to that had monster years while having bottom tier weapons? I’ll wait. These are direct questions, can you give direct answers?

[Bearfacts]

I thought I did. Maybe I don't see this group as being as bad as you do.

Mooney is a proven 1000 yard guy even playing as a #2 like he did in 2021. Pringle had half his yardage and catches in 2021 alternating with two others at KC and should do better this year. Are either of them good enough to virtually take over a game? No, but then one was a 5th round pick and the other an UDFA and together they're costing us less than $3 mil this year.

That's two starters who put up over 1600 yards receiving in 2021 for less than $3 mil. That just a shade more than Davante Adams had in 2021 but we couldn't buy Davante Adams cleats for $3 mil if he was in them. Assuming both stay healthy and play all 17 games this year what do you feel they can produce; number of catches, yardage, tds? Individual or combined.

It's gonna be tough to come up with estimates for Jones because we don't know how much he'll be used as a WR vs his other duties but let's estimate 600 yards or so like Mooney did as a rookie. We don't know what St. Brown can do but like Pringle at least here he won't be pushed as far down on the depth chart and hopefully he has better rapport with Fields than Rodgers.

That's our top four. What can we expect from just those four WR? 2500 yards? 2800 yards? 3000 yards?

We don't know who the other 2 or 3 will be but Newsome will likely be one who may share snaps at Slot WR provided he makes the team and then we have another half dozen or so competing for a spot. Is it a stellar cast of proven players? No. It's a cast of mostly unknowns like many other teams have. They have little or no previous history to go by so we'll have to wait to see how well they produce but at least one or two should produce something this year.

At TE Kmet caught 60 passes for just over 600 yards in 2021. Horsted only caught two passes but both were TDs. He should get a better shot this year. Both could do a little better especially Horsted. Historically O'Shaughnessy is good for another 250 yards and then we have some other prospects. So being conservative lets say 1000 yards from our TE. I agree it should be more but then we don't know how much TE will figure into Getsy's passing game vs say his RB.

So very conservatively and without considering the RB this bunch should be able to ring up at least somewhere between 3500 and 4000 yards in 2022. When was the last time we had a QB throw for 4000 yards? Never? If you want me to rank them I'd say bottom third but they sure as hell are not as bad as some of the WR we trucked out over the years or even last year. With ARob we may have looked better on paper but what happened? ARob mailed it in and only had 38 catches for just over 400 yards.

I'll just say I don't believe it's as bad as it looks now or will look once they start playing and I'll stand by that ready to eat crow if I'm wrong.

You have a point. This is a team in transition and we can expect some tough losses. But this should also be a team that finally establishes an identity and will be much faster and tougher than anything we have seen for a while.
It appears that Poles and company are expecting a substantial boost from change in scheme. They may be overrating this, I know some folks thing they are, but at this point at least they seem pretty confident about their plan. Almost everyone they signed or drafted fit a profile of being athletic, fast and competitive with a high motor.
If Fields and the team buy in and things begin to click we may all be surprised or at the very least entertained.
Which would be nice for a change.

While this defense is not as stacked with talent as the 2018 version was we may be able to depend upon a return to a Cover 2 and Cover 3 scheme that features speed, relentless pursuit, and a healthy dose of the "Peanut Punch" to create more turnovers than we've seen since 2018. Our 2021 secondary was not good and that issue has now been addressed.

Nagy benefited from a tailwind in 2018 based to a degree on some of our opponents unfamiliarity with his offensive schemes but later in the year and in the playoffs as they caught on that tailwind died off. We may get a similar benefit this year with some teams not knowing exactly what Getsy plans to throw at them and from a rapidly ascending Justin Fields.

I don't see the Bears winning 12 games again and there will be some tough losses but what I don't believe we'll see is a team getting blown out either offensively or defensively. I believe there's more talent than others do but most are younger and less experienced than the 2018 roster was. They'll make mistakes and we'll lose some games because of it.

But if this works many of the current players will form the foundation and depth for what comes next when Poles has a full compliment of draft picks (and knowing him he'll still be looking to add more) and a ton of cap to shop for higher impact players on both offense and defense. By then Fields should also be ready for bigger things.

To those who still worry about our WR I hearken back to something Jim McMahon said back in 1983 after the Bears drafted Jimbo Covert when our WR core consisted of Willie Gault, Ken Margerum, Dennis Gentry, and Brian Baschnagel with Emery Moorehead at TE. And some believe we're worse than that now huh?

Fans griped when we didn't draft a WR to help Mac and his comment was "what good would another WR do if I'm flat on my back"? Poles was able to draft a WR early enough he just wasn't among the ones most fans wanted. Poles also added 4 OL draftees and a couple of UDFA so it's not as if he ignored both needs. They just aren't who fans wanted.

I suspect that whatever hasn't gotten "fixed" this year will be at the top of Poles list next year but for that we have to wait.

[artbest01]

An aging Green, Higgins and Boyd were better than Robinson, Mooney and a bunch of 1 year contract stiffs. Robinson wasn’t, for whatever reason, playing particularly well when either QB - fields or Dalton - were under center. Burrow was still better on his own than fields - but his weapons were clearly better than what Fields/Dalton had to work with a year ago.

IMO, two things are simultaneously true. 1, QBs like Joe Burrow and (especially) Justin Herbert were better than Justin Fields as rookies - independent of their supporting cast. That said 2. Fields had, on balance, less talent around him than either of those two. It can also be argued - and has been by people who know the game (including Dan Orlovsky) that Fields' likely had far "worse coaching" than either Herbert or Burrow - or Mac Jones.

The talent around Fields now is not the envy of teams across the league. There are no Jamar Chases or Tyreek Hills or Stefon Diggs or Travis Kelce's on this team. There are no Deebo Samuels or George Kittles. The oline is in transition - their best pass protector a year ago was a 40 year old they signed off of a fishing boat.

All of this being understood, Fields needs to show dramatic improvement regardless of what's around him. He can cut WAY down on turnovers, get rid of the ball faster and on time, throw for more TDs than INTs and be far more efficient. I do suspect the scheme will benefit him. I think the pieces around him, while far from elite, have the kind of traits that fit what he does best. The Bears will stink, they'll lose more than they win - but Fields can still show that he's the QB of the future. If he's terrible, we won't be able to simply "blame Poles and Getsy."

Art - Burrow didn't have Chase as a Rookie. He had a worse OL than Fields

We are talking a Washed AJ Green. (500 yards, 2 TD) and Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd

The kind of WR corps that would be an automatic Fields stats dont count!!!! WR crew here

[dplank]

He also didn’t post great numbers as a rookie. Better than Fields, but Fields numbers were dreadful. 13 TDs, sub 90 QBR - with better talent.

I just want to see Rich answer a few direct questions - directly.

[thunderspirit]

I just want to see Rich answer a few direct questions - directly.

Yeah — you and I both know what the answer is going to be. And it won't answer anything, but will bash Fields some more.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

[UOK]

You guys sure have a hard-on sometimes for drilling people's arguments (or lack thereof). Maybe I'm just tired and over the Bears or something, but I could give a shit if some message board person isn't meeting my standards of debate.

[RichH55]

Yeah - Burrow as a Rookie- No Chase.

Your mileage on Tyler Boyd goes further than mine good sir

You’re clearly avoiding my question

You’re so missing the point. Burrow without Chase threw 13 TDs and had a sub 90 QBR. Burrow with Chase was one if the best QBs in football. Game set match.

Where is Fields Chase so we can hope for a similar big leap?

The questions you’re ignoring: which teams do you rank below Chicago for WR/TE weapons, and which non HOF QBs can you point to that had monster years while having bottom tier weapons? I’ll wait. These are direct questions, can you give direct answers?

Is Chess another sport you don't seem to grasp too? Any time you bring up QBR it's a lost cause - it's just a failure to understand how numbers work. If you are going to use a flawed all-encompassing number - Use the ESPN QBR - Maybe we play a game where Sacks, Fumbles, and 3rd Down conversions matter?!?!?


Joe Burrow - was GOOD as a Rookie - Full Stop. Worse OL (clearly). Worse WR Group (your mileage may vary - I think Mooney is the best on that list). Good. The biggest thing you can hang your hat on is that that poor OL pretty much directly led to him getting hurt. (That's an actual fair counter point not QBR nitpicking)

13 TD in 10 Games (he got injured in Game 10, but basically played the full game) - but only 5 INT Over the Course of a full year that is 22-23 TD 8-9 INT - and that's as a Rookie. Is factoring in some growth in Year 2 crazy?

But it's super odd (lets say intellectually dishonest or nearing that to say "he only had 13 TD and not mention how many games he played)

Note for the game set match crowd. 13-5 is better than 7-10. You want to have MORE TD than INT

And Burrow's INT % was actually very good (Set?)
(Got worse in Year 2 oddly - Or maybe not so oddly - trying to make bigger plays, less rookie year check downs, needing to carry the team more, etc - BUT I digress)


Burrow Sack Rate - again Rookie and Worse OL - 7.3%. (This would be a monsterous improvement for Fields) (Set?)

Burrows Yards for a full season - as rookie - 4,569. Tyler Boyd.

If you told me Fields put up 23 TD, 9 INT, 7.3% Sack Rate, 4500 Yards in Year 2. I would be over the moon. (Note: Fix the fumbling too. But even if the TTT isn't perfect there - he's making it work nonetheless)

Does any of these mean that having a guy like Chase doesn't help? Of course not. Which is why no one said something foolish like that.

Does it mean you need to be a HOF player with 10 Years in the league to look good with a better supporting cast? No. And someone did say something foolish like that.

But the notion that someone said game, set, match when a guy was putting up a season of 23Td, 9 INT, 4500+ Yards as a Rookie with Bad OL and not much in the skill position department is a super, super Bad take

(Should be noted that Joe Mixon is a good player/bad human being but you have talent at HB akin to Montgomery - Though Mixon only played 6 Games in 2020 though ALL were games Burrow played so he had Mixon roughly 60% of the time)

[RichH55]

I just want to see Rich answer a few direct questions - directly.

Yeah — you and I both know what the answer is going to be. And it won't answer anything, but will bash Fields some more.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

What haven't I answered directly? Over all these threads? I sketched out what I thought Fields progress looks like, I put a percentage on how much I thought was on Fields games part

I have said consistently I do not think the OL group (Pig Simmons fatwa notwithstanding) is a dumpster fire. I expect them to be similar to last year/better(*)

(*) In terms of "ranking" the OL other teams added guys too - so could see some flux in terms of ranking but somewhere between bottom 50% and bottom 33% seems about right. Not bottom 5 though. Not a dumpster fire. Not the built in excuse that people are already crafting in Fields still holds the ball too long.

And biggest issues (Nagy playcalling (people put alot on that - me less so than the board though I still put a chunk on it) and Sam Mustipher being your Center are gone.(**)

(**) All this does assume Health. Which is a big assumption. And health played a role on last years line at RT - a position that on paper should have been better than the reality you got. And when depth is mostly Rookies? Scary. I concede that.

I also think there is a decent chance the OL is kind of good. Last year PFF had us 22nd Overall. Espn had us top half in both Pass Blocking and Run Blocking win percentage. So the baseline isn't as bad as most make it out to be.

Now Jason Peters gave us a year way better than we had any right to expect - so I don't think you are upgrading LT this year. If you can get similar play you call it a win. I do not expect much dropoff if any from Whitehair - and I think with new scheme and kind of playing for a contract - there is a decent -good chance he's better.

Center - I expect significant improvement across the board - Better player and a guy who knows both the scheme and league better than Mustipher - I think this will be a force multiplier

Other Guard - I don't think Daniels was some world dominator - but I do expect drop off here - at least for 2022 - Do I expect it to be as bad as C or RT were last year? No.

RT- Again, we are assuming health - I think you should expect massive improvement here. I expect Jenkins to be a Top 10 RT easily in Year 1 (***) - I think top 5 is actually quite doable

(***) There are some really crappy RT out there in this league. Ideally teams would love two prototype LTs just one playing on the Right side. But the reality is a lot of teams don't even have one to play LT, let alone two.

I also don't see a black hole yet alone 2 like last year. I absolutely DO subscribe to the theory that your weakest link on the OL has an oversized impact on OL play. (****)

(****) Lots of shades of gray here. Worthy of a post itself - but yeah the overall line matters - and where the weak link is. I think basically if you HAD to have a weak link - you'd want it to be Guard. It goes LT, RT, C and then either Guard. And if you have a weak link but say 3 All Pros elsewhere - alot easier to cover for that weak link - especially if he All Pros are next to weak link

But if you gave me an OL option of: (Solid being at least league average maybe decently above average range)
1). All Pro LT, solid LG, Blackhole center (think Mustipher type), All Pro RG, solid RT
2). Solid LT, Solid LG, Solid C, Solid RG, Solid to All Pro RT

I take Line 2 for that season

Ill do the WR next post

[dplank]

I’ve asked you 4 times to show me where you rank the Bears weapons. I have them 31st or 32nd.

[RichH55]

I mean the Dplank Burrow as a Rookie take is terrible by the way. But ok

[RichH55]

I’ve asked you 4 times to show me where you rank the Bears weapons. I have them 31st or 32nd.

I just did OL. Working on Weapons.

I also think Tiers is what matters on weapons. There is a lot of nitpicking on individual rankings (doing that now - Is this guy the 65th best WR or 57th?!?!?! How much of a difference is that - tough to say)

Do you think our weapons and OL are better than Cincy 2020?

[RichH55]

He also didn’t post great numbers as a rookie. Better than Fields, but Fields numbers were dreadful. 13 TDs, sub 90 QBR - with better talent.

I just want to see Rich answer a few direct questions - directly.

Better talent? Tyler Boyd?

What are you talking about?

[RichH55]

Weapons. Ok. Super loaded - have to define what you are looking at (Will be Long) - but I'll show my work

Just trying to get in the right tier - IMHO the difference between 1 and 20 is monstrous but like 1 v 3? or 25 v 30. Honestly its quibbling

Think of it like Appliances - You got a SubZero and Viking range? Ok then - that blows the LG we have out of the water. Is the LG markedly better or worse than the Kichenaid? Probably not - at the least its close enough.

Do I need to be Grant Achatz to cook on an LG instead of a Viking? No.

Bears breakdown

I think Kmet is going to be slightly above average (NOT Elite). If you can definitely rank him above or below like Evan Engram or Tyler Higbee or Njoku - you are a very confident person. There are guys like Kelsey, Kittle, etc - Waves better. No doubters.

I give two way TE more value than they might otherwise have for this simple fact: Having them on the Field does less to clue in the Defense to what you are doing. When Mike Gesicki is out there? Less so.

Montgomery - I think he's a top 10 HB. And if you are just looking at pass catching - he's really really good. Not quite the HR hitter but this is absolutely a weapon in every facet.

Mooney - I might be the high man here - I think he's really good. When I was breaking down my internal (so so subjective) rankings I really had him in the Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, Kirk, Cooks grouping

Here's my list of WR - Clearly, no doubt, no real argument that are better than Mooney (In no order): Diggs, Hill, Chase, Adams, Allen, M Williams (when healthy - I'd even add Fuller to that list - I think Fuller healthy might be the most underrated WR in the NFL), Lamb, AJ Brown,Devonta Smith, McLaurin, Jefferson, Theilan, Olave (*), Evans, Godwin, Deebo, Kupp, Metcalf

(*) Rookies are super tough to judge obviously but Olave was my favorite WR in the draft class - I'm decently down on London Drake and Watson

I think the next Tier after those guys is where Mooney belongs

Pringle I think is a solid NFL WR - An asset in your top 3. He isn't stopping the offense from running anything - the routes will be correct- he can take advantage of 1 on 1 if they try and double Mooney. Sure you'd like him to more be your #3 than #2 - But this isn't the same thing as like the QB can't be expecting to play under these conditions! Anthony Miller or Javon Wims this is not

I also like the Tennessee kid we got. I think he's a perfect Fields WR. When hes open you dont need to anticipate it - he'll just be open. And has Home Run ability - I do think teams HAVE to at least account for him - especially deep

I have little to no faith in E. St Brown and do think our depth falls off very quickly at the position. Like off a cliff

Teams loaded out there: A couple have MULTIPLE guys on that Top 20 (especially when they are closer to 1 than 20)- Which is just insane - Clearly clearly better than the Bears- just having 1 guy on that list should get you ahead

Like the difference between the Vikes, Dolphins, Buffalo, Raiders, Bucs than others is really vast.

Seattle, Cowboys, Chargers, Eagles, Redskins, Saints, Cards (though they do take a hit with no Hopkins for 6 games - but they still get him for 11)

Here are teams that I think are weak - or at the least uninspiring at WR position:

Pats (I think we are better than their skill position players - just because Nelson Aguilar is overpaid does not make him good - basically have him at similar level as Pringle) I would have Pats as one of the lower teams in the league - More depth than Bears

Chiefs - WR/HB only? I take Bears. But there is such a thing as TE - and Kelsey is great. So they are better than Bears - is it like slaughter rule? No. No it is not and that does matter

Colts - I think there is actually more to Pittman - But if you are just doing WR/TE - I would say Bears or pick em. Taylor is a monster at HB - the old adage that a great running game is a QBs best friend. But if you are looking at weapons in the passing game its relatively close.

Jacksonville- Etienne will be the wild card here. WR/TE/HB all relatively even - your mileage may vary - I would have them in same Tier as Bears - I will note they DO have more depth than Bears

Lions - I like DJ Chark (Have Mooney over him), I think there could be a step forward for Hockenson (and hes better than Kmet though not a stud) - I think same tier as Bears - or a bit lower for 2022. Is J. Williams likely to be very good and really help a rookie QB in 2023? Yes. Is he likely to be a factor in 2022, especially the 1st half of the season. I don't think so

Giants- How much are we playing with health here? Barkley (if still on the team) is major wild card - Galladay I expect to be healthy but hes hasn't really been.
I do not believe in Toney at all - that was pre draft last year and the season and this offseason have done nothing to change my opinion. TE Crew is average
I'd have Galladay in a similar tier to Mooney and I'd have Pringle in similar tier to Shepard. I think if you made me choose - I'd take Bears (Mooney, plus speed, plus I think Kmet could have another gear - Not Kittle/Kelsey - but could he get to Ertz type level?). But I think basically same tier/ pick em is fair too

Tenn- This is a similar analysis to Colts - though with the wild card 1st Round WR thrown into mix, Woods I think is a solid WR (way overpaid) but clearly not bad. I'd take Mooney over him but its close - He could also be a lot closer to Pringle that we are thinking - Derrick Henry though


Ravens- They are below the Bears - maybe bottom 2, maybe dead last

Packers - It won't matter because of Rodgers - and I was on record on Watson before the overdraft of him. I think we have them beat especially for 2022. Even the biggest Watson backers tend to think he needs more seasoning than most rookie WR - He has more in common with E. St Brown than I think Packers fans are going to want to think about

Atlanta - Pitts is going to show he's a stud this year. Drafted Drake London Top 10 (Drake was not my favorite prospect - and seems to kind of duplicate what Pitts can do? He's going to be a Rookie WR coming off an injury that cost him a good chunk of his last college season (2022 could very well be a developmental year)

There is also no way that Auden Tate is the name of a WR not a poet. I think its basically same tier as Bears - Montgomery might push Bears over the top for me. The allure of Pitts might take it for you - I can't imagine with the ATL Running game and lack of other threats that Pitts isn't doubled like 60%+ of the time

Browns - I think they are probably the closest to Bears of all. I think in my internal rankings I have matchups like Chubb v. Montgomery, Cooper v. Mooney, Njoku v. Kmet. I think I would take Pringle over Donovan Peoples-Jones (but if you wanted to argue it - I can see it either way?)

Panthers - all a bet on McCaffrey - So I'm going to hedge. If he's 100% they are in that Colts/Tenn/KC tier. If he's hurt or 80% they are in the Pats, Packers, Ravens tier - So I will split the difference

They also lack depth - Javon Wims is on this depth chart

I don't just think Browns are in same tier as Bears - I think its a clear tie.


So. (Sorry for Long Post)

I would clearly have Bears in lower 1/3 of league.

I would have Pats, Ravens, Packers as the bottom Tier - clear last 3 for 2022.

I would have Bears in the same tier as: Browns, Giants, Lions, Jacksonville, Panthers

I would have Bears only slightly down from (running game edition/ TE edition): Colts (and if its JUST passing game weapons then I'd move Colts down a tier) and Tenn and Chiefs

Only team I couldn't rank - 49ers- With and without Deebo its just different animals

So bottom 1/3 - Tied for 24th overall - but if you wanted to say as low as 29th? Thats well within bounds

[dplank]

I have 31st, but I’m not considering the run game at all. Because this ultimately ties back to Fields prospects as a passer. Appreciate the work, how far do you drop them in a passing only view?

[RichH55]

I have 31st, but I’m not considering the run game at all. Because this ultimately ties back to Fields prospects as a passer. Appreciate the work, how far do you drop them in a passing only view?

Well I'm mostly in that context using Montgomery's bonafides as a pass catcher out of the backfield (*)(**)
(*) Im sure I am also taking into account that Montgomery is a really, really good back in terms of Pass Pro too - but maybe that is more an OL "extra" piece???
(**) And Yes I do think you need to account for this aspect of it - Frankly running games SHOULD be part of this discussion - If you give QBA and QBB the same WR/TE - but one gets Derrick Henry too and the other gets Khalil Herbert - Might that make a big difference?

But I digress - To answer your question - and taking into account pass catcher (not running game) coming out of the backfield

That would move down Indy and Tenn for sure. Maybe not Indy I guess since Since Taylor is a threat still in passing game - less natural skills that Montgomery in that respect but can do more damage when he does have a catch (Henry really doesn't do a ton in the passing game - but he probably does enough without that - ha)


So it really wouldn't change the rankings that much - I would still have them in the Same Tier - drop Tenn down into that Tier too

I think the biggest potential thing - Against most of these teams (not Browns or ATL - when you look at their depth charts you'll see old Bears you dont really need/want to see again) - Bears Depth is BAD at WR.

If a lot of these teams - including most of the teams in our Tier lose their #2 WR - He usually was Solid but the replacement probably gives them most of what they just lost

If we lose Pringle - who is by no means earth shattering, just a good solid WR - it really opens up a big hole

[dplank]

A lot depends on what your measuring. The QB with Henry probably has less attempts than the QB with Herbert, so his stats may look better

I agree with most of this but think you’re off on the Lions in particular. Did you forget about St Brown? He had more catches than Mooney. Add in Chark, Hock, and that draft pick and they are way ahead of us. Tennessee and Giants and Falcons have high 1st rounders that I feel you have under valued here, while over valuing Jones (who I also like).

I can’t get with having us any higher than 29th, so we are close.

[dplank]

Regarding OL - I’ve had us at “bottom 10” and still see it there. Last year PFF had us 22 (that’s bottom 11). And you’ve correctly noted we will see a decline in play at both LT (critical, critical spot to decline) and RG. You expect improvement at C (agree), and are hoping for in house improvement at RT (agree). LG stays same. We also lack depth, a bunch of late round rookies.

That doesn’t improve the OL standing overall. If we see better play, Getsy and Fields should be credited mightily. The unit itself looks bottom 10 from a talent standpoint.

So after all this, we are pretty much looking at a bottom 5 weapons and bottom 10 OL group. Which is what I’ve been saying.

[Bearfacts]

Bears add rookie 3 tech DT to the roster.

Michael Greene NFL Draft Scouting Report | Defensive Tackle

Positives: Explosive, undersized defensive tackle who projects to the three-technique position. Bends his knees, plays with leverage, and fluidly moves about the field. Keeps his feet moving and his hands active. Quick when asked to twist or stunt, consistently gets leverage on opponents, and is rarely off his feet. Fires off the snap with a quick first step, shoots through gaps and plays with balance.

Negatives: First-step lineman who struggles getting off blocks and gets handled at the point. Easily out-positioned from the action.

Analysis: Greene is a hard-working lineman with excellent movement skills, but he must add bulk to his frame as well as strength to his game. He’s a practice-squad player for a team that lines up four defensive linemen.