Have I? I'm an investment analyst and have been for nearly 40 years. So yes. I've used MPT Theory incorporating statistical analysis for quite awhile now and I also use and understand means, medians, correlation coefficients, and standard deviations in my work.IE wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 8:17 amLet me explain ... the median I've been using is the farthest you can get from subjective or cherry-picking. When you use the median you automatically eliminate all the outliers - good and bad. The median tells the most accurate story of what a player really IS. It IS the full package of data. Have you had a statistics class? No offense, but it isn't clear. If not there are resources on line (e.g. youtube) where you can freshen up. I could use that myself because I'd like to look at some other useful things to compare players, such as consistency. Standard deviations should give good insight, and I need to brush up.Bearfacts wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 11:42 pm
But then shouldn't we also subtract every goal line carry where even if he scored the yardage was only 1 or 2 yards? How about dozens of shorter yardage runs to pick up a first down where the endeavor was only to gain a yard or two against a stacked front?
Nope. Once you get to use subjective outliers results can and often are skewed to favor those trying to make their point. You may not be doing that intentionally but the result is the same as if you are. They're all part of the same package. Good and bad.
I want to look at consistency more because looking at his full stats Monty seems consistent but not in a great way. He's not a boom or bust guy who will have a bad game here and there but who also has a lot of games over 5 or 6 ypc. That's where he differs from players like Forte, who had a lot more games with exceptional ypc. Monty has very few boom games and very few total bust games. The problem for Monty is even the most explosive players have some bust games. They just make up for it with more booms than busts. Monty does not.
Really the ONLY hope that he is extended is the "Nagy factor" theory (which i personally ascribe to - I just don't know how big it is). The hope that we have for Monty is Aaron Jones, who is in rare air on the all time ypc list ... although he's come back down to earth more recently so we'll see in the long run. Keep in mind these are averages and not median, so they are skewed a bit by outliers and oversell what you should expect in a given game.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... career.htm
That said I also have a pair of eyes and my opinion concurs with that of HC "Flus" which I posted in my response to Moriarty above.
Flus gets it in much the same manner that I do and I also recall how many times Bears fans wanted to replace Matt Forte with a RB who was more like David Montgomery. I don't wish to compare Monty with Forte, Jones or any other RB. Monty is a complete package in and of himself and has shown that he can help an offense in several ways.
He can run with power and break arm tackles, he has phone booth elusiveness to make first tacklers miss, enough speed to break longer runs, he can be used as a pass receiver. I've watched enough of him to see times when it takes three guys to bring him down and rarely before he gets to the sticks or over the goal line. In his first three seasons he's averaged nearly 1250 yard per year in total offense, scored 24 times, and fumbled only 4 times in 835 touches. That's nice work for a former 3rd round pick.
If the Bears can't use him I'll bet you a buck he wouldn't remain unsigned for long once we released him.