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HisRoyalSweetness
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Not exactly analytics, but some interesting stats:
New Bears head coach focused on flags

Bears head coach Matt Eberflus stood in front of his team on the morning of June 14, the first day of the team’s three-day mandatory minicamp, and introduced the guests that he was embedding with his players: referee Craig Wrolstad and his officiating crew.

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Inviting officials to camp was a technique Eberflus picked up at his last stop, with promising results. In two of the last three seasons, Eberfus’ Colts boasted the least-penalized defense in the NFL.

In 2018, Eberflus’ first season as coordinator, the Colts committed 50 defensive penalties, tied for fifth-most in the league. In the next three years, they averaged only 31.

The Colts were tied for the fewest defensive penalties last year, with 23. The Bears had more than twice as many, 47. Overall, the Colts were flagged 76 times last year, the third-fewest in the league. The Bears had 106 penalties.

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Kyler Gordon, the Bears’ top draft pick this year, figures to start at cornerback opposite Jaylon Johnson. He wasn’t flagged at all in either of his last two seasons at Washington. Jaquan Brisker, a fellow second-round rookie, will start at safety next to Eddie Jackson. He didn’t have a penalty in his last two seasons at Penn State, either.

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As the Bears’ defense deteriorated the past few years, penalties skyrocketed. When Vic Fangio coordinated the league’s most dominant defense in 2018, they had the sixth-fewest defensive penalties in the NFL.

The next year, they had the seventh-fewest. In 2020, their second season under coordinator Chuck Pagano, they had the eighth-most defensive penalties.

Last year, under Sean Desai, they had the sixth-most.

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When the Bears return from summer break, Eberflus will have officials come out at training camp twice — one group from the NFL, which will present the rules changes for the year, and another from the Big Ten. Eberflus wants his players to (use) their brains.

Full article: https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2022 ... -colts-nfl
RichH55
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Flags - except for Playoffs - only come for certain teams !

Everyone knows this - there is data and everything!
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RichH55 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 9:03 pm Flags - except for Playoffs - only come for certain teams !

Everyone knows this - there is data and everything!
You’re right about that Rich :clap:
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 7:24 pm Not exactly analytics, but some interesting stats:
New Bears head coach focused on flags

Bears head coach Matt Eberflus stood in front of his team on the morning of June 14, the first day of the team’s three-day mandatory minicamp, and introduced the guests that he was embedding with his players: referee Craig Wrolstad and his officiating crew.

---

Inviting officials to camp was a technique Eberflus picked up at his last stop, with promising results. In two of the last three seasons, Eberfus’ Colts boasted the least-penalized defense in the NFL.

In 2018, Eberflus’ first season as coordinator, the Colts committed 50 defensive penalties, tied for fifth-most in the league. In the next three years, they averaged only 31.

The Colts were tied for the fewest defensive penalties last year, with 23. The Bears had more than twice as many, 47. Overall, the Colts were flagged 76 times last year, the third-fewest in the league. The Bears had 106 penalties.

---

Kyler Gordon, the Bears’ top draft pick this year, figures to start at cornerback opposite Jaylon Johnson. He wasn’t flagged at all in either of his last two seasons at Washington. Jaquan Brisker, a fellow second-round rookie, will start at safety next to Eddie Jackson. He didn’t have a penalty in his last two seasons at Penn State, either.

---

As the Bears’ defense deteriorated the past few years, penalties skyrocketed. When Vic Fangio coordinated the league’s most dominant defense in 2018, they had the sixth-fewest defensive penalties in the NFL.

The next year, they had the seventh-fewest. In 2020, their second season under coordinator Chuck Pagano, they had the eighth-most defensive penalties.

Last year, under Sean Desai, they had the sixth-most.

---

When the Bears return from summer break, Eberflus will have officials come out at training camp twice — one group from the NFL, which will present the rules changes for the year, and another from the Big Ten. Eberflus wants his players to (use) their brains.

Full article: https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2022 ... -colts-nfl
Thanks HRS, excellent read :thumbsup:
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Great post, HRS.
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Thanks, but the credit should go to Patrick Finley of the Sun Times. I just summarised the key sections and provided a link to his full article.
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It was thx good stuff
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RichH55 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:09 pm
RustinFields wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:05 pm Nagy pendulum hasnt gone far enough, imo.
People want to make it out like he was Urban Meyer level bad.

He was not.
Urban's going down as one of the worst NFL coaches ever. So that's a high bar to clear for Nagy to be in that realm.

What Nagy was:
-a terrible teacher (as evidenced by every year, his constant churning of assistants on the offensive side of the ball, coupled with the constant stream of players not being on the same page come game time)
- running a supremely undisciplined team (as evidenced by countless flags, idiotic penalties like delay of game coming out of time outs, etc)
-incapable of adapting "his" system to his players (and i say "his" because it was never his, as pointed out by many respected analysts and ex-players. He thought he could take Reid's system and make it his own, when he should be building his own philosophy from the ground up).

Nagy did have some early success, clouding the final judgement on his tenure, but that was due to inheriting vic fangio, and having a demeanor that made players want to play hard for him. Unfortunately losing Vic and running a general shit show eventually took it's toll on players, and in some extreme cases (ARob), they wanted nothing to do with him by his last season.

The NFL LOVES recycling coaches, and if there was ANYTHING there, ANYTHING AT ALL, he would have gotten a better job offer than slinking back to KC to be a lowly QB Coach. Everybody speaks in absolutes on forums like this, and I get wanting to pump the brakes, but Nagy outright refusing to adapt his system to the players he had does feel like you can draw a straight line to "Nagy doesnt put a lot of stock in Analytics".
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interesting take on how the Raven are using analytics
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While I appreciate Kyler Gordon never having a penalty called on him in two years, he's never had to cover a Packers receiver on 3rd and long when the Packers are down by 3 late in the game.
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Nagy was a complete shitshow and the only reason there are any fond memories of him is the players liked him when they were winning and he was all rah-rah (club dub). He was over his head in every single way. He literally couldn't plan, coach or make good decisions. Ugh.

Nagy's version of analytics is asking his Arena League roomie what he thinks the WRs should do.

I can see analytics being relevant for Flags. The league isn't consistent with them, and a team who knows better what they can & can't get away with in each game has an advantage.

I'm interested in whether they're using AI and ML in their analytics to help in scouting and player development.
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RichH55 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:09 pm
RustinFields wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:05 pm Nagy pendulum hasnt gone far enough, imo.
People want to make it out like he was Urban Meyer level bad.

He was not.

He was much closer to average than dumpster fire than people want to admit.

In fairness - as fans we had to deal with the losses. AND if you say Nagy was the worst, dumpster fire, etc etc then it lets you both have more hope for the upcoming season AND for Fields - Which is a nice incentive structure for the fan.

But things usually go on the Arob pendulum route.

"Perennial 1500 Yard WR" Is he Top 5 WR or merely Top 10? to. he's a bum who can't play - and don't forget that time he put on a joker mask and set Fields car on fire!!! The WORST EVER!!!!!

Neither is true.
Nagy led a fairly inspired offense in year one and kind of rallied the team around him. After he won COTY I think he began smelling his own farts and lost the touch of what made him a locker room coach to begin with. Players stopped buying in, the fun stuff became tedious, and losing basically ruins everything.

As far as Braxton Jones goes, if the guy can play, start him. This doesn't need to be complicated. If anything, the Bears need to stop being so frustrating with how they handle the offensive line. If Jones can play LT and play it well, you start him and leave him there. They have GOT to leave guys together to gel on the front 5 or they are screwed.
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UOK wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:55 am Nagy led a fairly inspired offense in year one and kind of rallied the team around him. After he won COTY I think he began smelling his own farts and lost the touch of what made him a locker room coach to begin with. Players stopped buying in, the fun stuff became tedious, and losing basically ruins everything.

As far as Braxton Jones goes, if the guy can play, start him. This doesn't need to be complicated. If anything, the Bears need to stop being so frustrating with how they handle the offensive line. If Jones can play LT and play it well, you start him and leave him there. They have GOT to leave guys together to gel on the front 5 or they are screwed.
I'd rather not bring up the other elephant in the room, but Nagus was brought in to groom Trubisky. Their first year together was a somewhat honeymoon, and then in 2019 Nagus tried to fit round Mitch in a square hole, the Nagus offense featuring the traditional pocket QB. Mitch had too much trouble reading defenses to the point that Nagus would talk to him while Mitch was coming up to the line. Nagus was trying to be some kind of Tecmo QB by calling pre-snap commands.
The wheels came off, the D stopped giving them good field position (as well as scoring points) and Nagus tried to hide behind his COTY. Bah, enough of that crap.

With this many new guys on the OL I would not be surprised if the OL gets juggled after the GB game. I'd love to see the Bears have a set 5 and play them all year long. It has been a long time since that has come close to happening.
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Nagy's offense in '18 was average, when the scoring from the historically great D was removed. Add in some gimmicks that he got away with due to uncertainty more than cleverness, and it really isn't true that his offense was good that first year. He was COY because the HC gets credit for the whole team.

Other teams started figuring him out quickly, like Gary Crowton. By later in the year, the offense was basically similar to '19 - '21. Almost completely missing. It was easy for the depleted Philly team to stop them. Until desperation set in toward the end and Mitch had some of his all time best moments at the end. Unfortunately that was only about 1/20th of the game because in the rest of the game he was horrible.
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IE wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:28 pm Nagy's offense in '18 was average, when the scoring from the historically great D was removed.
Are you talking about just removing Points Scored By Defense?

Because an UberIncredible turnover margin like 2018 does a lot more for the offense than just the points scored. They're always getting great field position. You play with a lead more often, which is much easier. When you are behind a little, you don't have to press as much. You get to wear down the other team with time of possession.

That is to say - I think crediting them for even being "average" is too generous, if you could truly remove all the impact of what the defense was doing.
I think it would be more accurate to say that "there was an illusion of adequacy".
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spudbear wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:50 am I'd rather not bring up the other elephant in the room, but Nagus was brought in to groom Trubisky. Their first year together was a somewhat honeymoon, and then in 2019 Nagus tried to fit round Mitch in a square hole, the Nagus offense featuring the traditional pocket QB. Mitch had too much trouble reading defenses to the point that Nagus would talk to him while Mitch was coming up to the line. Nagus was trying to be some kind of Tecmo QB by calling pre-snap commands.
The wheels came off, the D stopped giving them good field position (as well as scoring points) and Nagus tried to hide behind his COTY. Bah, enough of that crap.
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spudbear wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:50 am I'd rather not bring up the other elephant in the room, but Nagus was brought in to groom Trubisky. Their first year together was a somewhat honeymoon, and then in 2019 Nagus tried to fit round Mitch in a square hole, the Nagus offense featuring the traditional pocket QB. Mitch had too much trouble reading defenses to the point that Nagus would talk to him while Mitch was coming up to the line. Nagus was trying to be some kind of Tecmo QB by calling pre-snap commands.
I'm convinced having Nagy constantly in his ear screwed Mitch up big time. It felt like Nagy, the former not-good-enough-for-the-NFL QB, was a backseat driver or a father trying to live out his dreams through his son. I just saw this nugget in an article on the Steelers over at nfl.com:
...for however long he starts, Trubisky could continue to help mask the offensive line the way Roethlisberger did: by getting rid of the ball quickly. Trubisky's career numbers with less than 2.5 seconds to throw (72.9 percent completion rate, 31:11 TD-to-INT ratio, 95.5 passer rating) are comparable to Roethlisberger's over the last two seasons (70.3 percent completion rate, 37:7 TD-to-INT ratio, 97.5 passer rating), per Next Gen Stats.

Full article: https://www.nfl.com/news/state-of-the-2 ... ng-season-
When he didn't have time to think and just played Trubisky did pretty well.

You've got to believe that Eberflus and Getsy aren't going to micromanage Fields. Even before a single game's been played I feel much more confident in their ability to develop him and let his strengths shine through than I ever did with Nagy after seeing what happened with Trubisky. Sure enough his handling of Fields last year was farcical.
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Moriarty wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:49 pm
IE wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:28 pm Nagy's offense in '18 was average, when the scoring from the historically great D was removed.
Are you talking about just removing Points Scored By Defense?

Because an UberIncredible turnover margin like 2018 does a lot more for the offense than just the points scored. They're always getting great field position. You play with a lead more often, which is much easier. When you are behind a little, you don't have to press as much. You get to wear down the other team with time of possession.

That is to say - I think crediting them for even being "average" is too generous, if you could truly remove all the impact of what the defense was doing.
I think it would be more accurate to say that "there was an illusion of adequacy".
You're correct. The only thing I can absolutely quantify is the actual points scored by whom (and subtract them). But field position is also huge deal, and all those turnovers definitely created a LOT of short fields and skewed the average starting position. But then the offense's lack of ability can also skew that the other way as well. We can look at "average drive length" stats but that can also be misleading - because after a turnover the offense could do basically nothing, kick a FG, and get credit for a 40 yard drive.

I agree the '18 Bear offense was a BEST average. Realistically less so but hard to measure.
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