Hmmm. Tough call...
Offensive Line and Winning
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- dplank
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I dunno, I think folks could get behind a full on tank if that was the strategy. I supported Paces tank and full gut job when he took over from Emery.
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Conceptually yes I would support a tank. That’s not what’s going on here though.
A tank is deliberate and occurs when you have nothing to build with.
Rebuilding and tanking can get confused with each other.
We are rebuilding. We have the structural pieces for a good team and a future setup for a legitimate contender.
Potential franchise QB on rookie deal.
2 or 3 starting OL on rookie deals.
Franchise LB who is the leader and anchor of our defense.
Several younger pieces on defense.
Probably league leading cap space next year that could exceed $100M.
Trading Mack and losing Hicks is not tanking. Their playing time kept decreasing via injury. It made business sense to get rid of them.
I still contend that we are not going to be as bad as the screaming heads on YouTube or online journalists say we will be.
I also believe there is a massive probability we make a quantum leap for 2023 based on available draft picks, cap money and player development.
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Flus has a very distinct style/approach and expectation for the makeup of his team. This team is going to come out and punch the other guy in the nose, so to speak. They are going to initially surprise people, but then even after that they're going to pose a problem for teams who cannot keep up with them either physically or mentally (or both). They are going to be very serious about doing their jobs (at risk of not being able to play if they don't), and they will be as or more conditioned and as or more relentless (if not as talented) as the opposition.
Flus certainly doesn't believe all or even most of his players are as talented as some other guys out there. But he certainly does believe that they will outwork and play harder and be more consistent than the guys on the other side of the ball - and because of that he believes they'll be winning right away. Not always - but maybe as much as they lose, and maybe a bit more. I've been convinced he's right.
I really didn't know much or have much opinion about him coming in. But to me it is clear that this guy might be the most disciplined and intensely deliberate coach I've ever seen wear the Bear logo. I don't have proof but I do believe that will be reflected in how the team plays FAR more than individual player discussions that are going on. And I really really like to be believing that about my favorite team. In the past for as long as I can remember, it has always been excitement about this player or that player, with only an occasional strong belief that the team was going to be a force as an overall unit (e.g. the '18 D). But the sense I am getting now is this is going to be a coherent and formidable team because they will, in fact, prepare and operate as a team.
Flus certainly doesn't believe all or even most of his players are as talented as some other guys out there. But he certainly does believe that they will outwork and play harder and be more consistent than the guys on the other side of the ball - and because of that he believes they'll be winning right away. Not always - but maybe as much as they lose, and maybe a bit more. I've been convinced he's right.
I really didn't know much or have much opinion about him coming in. But to me it is clear that this guy might be the most disciplined and intensely deliberate coach I've ever seen wear the Bear logo. I don't have proof but I do believe that will be reflected in how the team plays FAR more than individual player discussions that are going on. And I really really like to be believing that about my favorite team. In the past for as long as I can remember, it has always been excitement about this player or that player, with only an occasional strong belief that the team was going to be a force as an overall unit (e.g. the '18 D). But the sense I am getting now is this is going to be a coherent and formidable team because they will, in fact, prepare and operate as a team.
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I agree with every word of this.IE wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:44 am Flus has a very distinct style/approach and expectation for the makeup of his team. This team is going to come out and punch the other guy in the nose, so to speak. They are going to initially surprise people, but then even after that they're going to pose a problem for teams who cannot keep up with them either physically or mentally (or both). They are going to be very serious about doing their jobs (at risk of not being able to play if they don't), and they will be as or more conditioned and as or more relentless (if not as talented) as the opposition.
The only thing I’ll add is the simplicity of learning and playing the Cover-2 is going to give the defense an additional step or second and that is going to add to this.
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Agree with all this - but we're going to lose a lot this year IMO. I think the problem will be right up the middle and center of the field, where we will struggle to stop the run and struggle to stop the center of the field dump off play as the LB's are dropping/chasing in coverage elsewhere. I recall that being problematic throughout Lovie's tenure here. Patient teams can move the ball relatively risk free - but they have to stay patient.The Marshall Plan wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:05 amI agree with every word of this.IE wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:44 am Flus has a very distinct style/approach and expectation for the makeup of his team. This team is going to come out and punch the other guy in the nose, so to speak. They are going to initially surprise people, but then even after that they're going to pose a problem for teams who cannot keep up with them either physically or mentally (or both). They are going to be very serious about doing their jobs (at risk of not being able to play if they don't), and they will be as or more conditioned and as or more relentless (if not as talented) as the opposition.
The only thing I’ll add is the simplicity of learning and playing the Cover-2 is going to give the defense an additional step or second and that is going to add to this.
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I've been thinking a lot about how much this upcoming season parallels 2015. We're coming off a rather disasterous hail mary of a coaching hire, the roster is in shambles, and the direction leadership is taking is bringing in someone to restore the culture first and foremost.
And so I've been thinking about where that 2015 rebuild went wrong.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Chicago_Bears_season
Boy, to start, that was an ugly roster. I think I liked Josh Bellamy better than most, but... yeesh:
Wide receivers
11 Joshua Bellamy
80 Marc Mariani PR
81 Cameron Meredith
19 Eddie Royal
14 Deonte Thompson KR
i think Pace tried to be patient at first, but he got off on such a bad foot. I loved Pernell Mcphee (our big free agent splash for that season) and it still hurts that his body wouldnt hold up. And that damn 2015 draft was pretty atrocious. Goldman and Amos and that was literally it.
And so I've been thinking about where that 2015 rebuild went wrong.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Chicago_Bears_season
Boy, to start, that was an ugly roster. I think I liked Josh Bellamy better than most, but... yeesh:
Wide receivers
11 Joshua Bellamy
80 Marc Mariani PR
81 Cameron Meredith
19 Eddie Royal
14 Deonte Thompson KR
i think Pace tried to be patient at first, but he got off on such a bad foot. I loved Pernell Mcphee (our big free agent splash for that season) and it still hurts that his body wouldnt hold up. And that damn 2015 draft was pretty atrocious. Goldman and Amos and that was literally it.
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Your memory is accurate. Our weakness seemed to be when attacked up the middle with the intermediate pass and I would attribute that to the times Urlacher would drop into coverage and leave that 5 to 10 yard pass open.dplank wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:29 pmAgree with all this - but we're going to lose a lot this year IMO. I think the problem will be right up the middle and center of the field, where we will struggle to stop the run and struggle to stop the center of the field dump off play as the LB's are dropping/chasing in coverage elsewhere. I recall that being problematic throughout Lovie's tenure here. Patient teams can move the ball relatively risk free - but they have to stay patient.The Marshall Plan wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:05 am
I agree with every word of this.
The only thing I’ll add is the simplicity of learning and playing the Cover-2 is going to give the defense an additional step or second and that is going to add to this.
There was a game against the Patriots and I thought it was in the snow too. Can’t remember the year. The Hoodie and The GOAT butchered us with that.
The key thing with the Cover-2 is generating pressure with the front four. That’s the biggest concern I have. We had some nasty bastards on that DL when Lovie was here. Harris, Peppers, Brown, and Ogunleye off the top of my head.
We won’t know until we play the games but we have nobody like that except Quinn and while obviously I do not want this happen there has to be mean reversion after last season.
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I completely follow what you are saying here, IE, and I'm also a lot more excited about the Bears than I've been in a long time.IE wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:44 am Flus has a very distinct style/approach and expectation for the makeup of his team. This team is going to come out and punch the other guy in the nose, so to speak. They are going to initially surprise people, but then even after that they're going to pose a problem for teams who cannot keep up with them either physically or mentally (or both). They are going to be very serious about doing their jobs (at risk of not being able to play if they don't), and they will be as or more conditioned and as or more relentless (if not as talented) as the opposition.
Flus certainly doesn't believe all or even most of his players are as talented as some other guys out there. But he certainly does believe that they will outwork and play harder and be more consistent than the guys on the other side of the ball - and because of that he believes they'll be winning right away. Not always - but maybe as much as they lose, and maybe a bit more. I've been convinced he's right.
I really didn't know much or have much opinion about him coming in. But to me it is clear that this guy might be the most disciplined and intensely deliberate coach I've ever seen wear the Bear logo. I don't have proof but I do believe that will be reflected in how the team plays FAR more than individual player discussions that are going on. And I really really like to be believing that about my favorite team. In the past for as long as I can remember, it has always been excitement about this player or that player, with only an occasional strong belief that the team was going to be a force as an overall unit (e.g. the '18 D). But the sense I am getting now is this is going to be a coherent and formidable team because they will, in fact, prepare and operate as a team.
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I was big time excited heading in to 2019, not sure how anyone wouldn’t be.
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I follow your high expectations after 2018 but - playoffs aside - I don't think I ever got the same general (positive) impression from Nagy that I've already gotten from Flus.
Nagy seemed over his head and full of BS from the beginning. Flus appears to be the antithesis.
Nagy seemed over his head and full of BS from the beginning. Flus appears to be the antithesis.
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I was fully on the Nagy (and Mitch) train after 2018, rookie COY and a missed kick away from a deep playoff run. Amazing how quickly he fell from grace really. It was all a house of cards that fell down the moment Fangio left.
I’m growing more excited by the day for this season. I don’t expect us to win a lot but this year sets the stage for the next 10. Let’s see who can play!
I’m growing more excited by the day for this season. I don’t expect us to win a lot but this year sets the stage for the next 10. Let’s see who can play!
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They really sold us hard going into '19. "Nagy 2.0" was supposed to take them to a new level but then Nagy was quickly exposed as an offensive fraud not genius. And Although Vic was replaced the D was mostly intact it seemed. Who knew that Amos and Callahan were the good ones and the star CB and FS were a mirage? The GM should have. He didn't. He paid the wrong guys too frequently.dplank wrote: ↑Sat Jul 02, 2022 7:37 am I was fully on the Nagy (and Mitch) train after 2018, rookie COY and a missed kick away from a deep playoff run. Amazing how quickly he fell from grace really. It was all a house of cards that fell down the moment Fangio left.
I’m growing more excited by the day for this season. I don’t expect us to win a lot but this year sets the stage for the next 10. Let’s see who can play!
I'll add that the difference between being sold then and trusting the new regime now is one of substance. With Nagy it was all style but he was a paper tiger. With Poles and Flus I see no-nonsense and fundamentals-driven principles that I believe will be reflected on the field with success. Athleticism. Conditioning. Thoroughness. Cohesiveness. It is far less about the coach in Flus than I really like the idea of a more disciplined, conspicuously smarter and physically gifted Bears.
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We'll see a much more disciplined team this year. The D will be weak up the middle but hopefully the LBs and secondary will be able to shut guys down so I expect improvement. The offense will be more deliberate - lots of running, rollouts and pass routes to slow down defensive pressure on Fields, guys used all over the place and not just in one role (i.e. who knows how many guys will play from the slot) along with using Fields ability to sling the long ball. More disciplined, less drives killed by penalties on offense and extending other teams drives' by the same. I'm still predicting low man in the North and I'd be surprised by more than 6 wins but I don't see a tank.
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i think Eberflus has a little Iron Mike in him. When Ditka took over in 82, he had a new first round QB, a few promising but mostly unproven players on the OL and the defense and of course Walter Payton and Buddy Ryan running the defense.
The story is told that he called the team together and told them if they stood with him for 3 years he would bring them to the Super Bowl.
I think the biggest thing that Ditka brought was a fiery competitive spirit and toughness that the team desperately needed after several years of mostly somnolent coaching.
Eberflus isn't Ditka but he does seem to have that willingness and ability to change the culture from "here we go again" to "win or lose they're going to know they were in a fight"
The next step will be "we don't lose"
Really looking forward to that.
The story is told that he called the team together and told them if they stood with him for 3 years he would bring them to the Super Bowl.
I think the biggest thing that Ditka brought was a fiery competitive spirit and toughness that the team desperately needed after several years of mostly somnolent coaching.
Eberflus isn't Ditka but he does seem to have that willingness and ability to change the culture from "here we go again" to "win or lose they're going to know they were in a fight"
The next step will be "we don't lose"
Really looking forward to that.
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I will take this opportunity to point out (to everyone in general) -IE wrote: ↑Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:44 am
They really sold us hard going into '19. "Nagy 2.0" was supposed to take them to a new level but then Nagy was quickly exposed as an offensive fraud not genius. And Although Vic was replaced the D was mostly intact it seemed. Who knew that Amos and Callahan were the good ones and the star CB and FS were a mirage? The GM should have. He didn't. He paid the wrong guys too frequently.
Bears fans bought in hook, line, and sinker on this.
The national sport media was cautious and not sold.
Bear fans savaged the "know-nothing" "anti-Bear" national sport media, including here quite a bit.
The national sport media was completely right.
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....as they usually are! I fell for it, but my only saving grace was when we hired Pagano I thought our defense would take an immediate step back, which it did. I did not see the trainwreck on offense coming as I thought Mitch and Nagy 2.0 was a real thing - it was not. I realized my mistake roughly 2/3 into the season and was ready to move on right there and then.
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I was hopeful, as I always am in the offseason for the most part. But it lasted less than one game for me. Nagy 2.0 was exposed in my view by the end of the first quarter (or first half at the latest) of the first game. There was a clear problem - and it was either Nagy or Mitch. There was no way even in a Packer game (especially in a Packer game?) that there wouldn't be immediate evidence of new offensive capabilities and some plays, even if the team lost. But it was absolutely nothing - like a complete absence of offense. Nagy 2.0 went over like a lead zeppelin. I blamed Nagy for a few games but then it was clear Mitch was horrible as well. The D was still clearly pretty decent even with Vic gone, and if the offense had even average ability that wouldn't have been an issue. I think the national media did see that Nagy was exposed by later in '18 and that Mitch wasn't very talented. They realized a mean regression on turnovers would show what the team really was. The doubt was about the coach and the QB.Moriarty wrote: ↑Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:44 amI will take this opportunity to point out (to everyone in general) -IE wrote: ↑Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:44 am
They really sold us hard going into '19. "Nagy 2.0" was supposed to take them to a new level but then Nagy was quickly exposed as an offensive fraud not genius. And Although Vic was replaced the D was mostly intact it seemed. Who knew that Amos and Callahan were the good ones and the star CB and FS were a mirage? The GM should have. He didn't. He paid the wrong guys too frequently.
Bears fans bought in hook, line, and sinker on this.
The national sport media was cautious and not sold.
Bear fans savaged the "know-nothing" "anti-Bear" national sport media, including here quite a bit.
The national sport media was completely right.
I think maybe where you're going here is trying to draw an analogy with then & now. Does that mean I was delusional in August of '18 because it was plausible that after a complete year and offseason a creative young coach and a young high draft pick 2nd year QB with potential could take a big step up? Even after knowing what I know, I still see that as being a reasonable thing to believe...until the reality is established one way or the other. I do see a parallel with the rationale I'm using now to be positive. One could argue "fool me once/twice" - but I feel the ground is a lot more firm under JF1 for multiple reasons (elite accuracy deep, ability to throw off platform, expected offensive philosophy that knows coming in it has to emphasize he strengths, depth and athleticism of weapons). If Byron Pringle turns out to be a dud for him and Vay Jones has stone hands and Kmet isn't good and the Oline has him being sacked or pressured 15 times a game then yes it could get ugly. That is what the national media is saying this time - that JF1 is being under-served. The doubt is not about the new regime or the QB. It is about the supporting cast - and in that case I believe Poles as adequately addressed the risk and added depth to keep the floor higher than the national media is having so much fun predicting.
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Good post IE but I disagree at the very end of it. You make a smart point about the national media pointing out coaching and QB issues in 2019 vs supporting cast issues this year. But I strongly disagree that Poles adequately addressed this, as I think nearly everyone here does. The debate around here seems more about the reasons for it moreso than the actual talent - the talent is absolutely unproven and by definition massively risky. Every team has the same amount of players, they all have depth per se, it’s about the quality of those players not just that they exist and we can name them. In our case, the OL had 4 late draft picks + Mustipher as depth (one will likely start no less). The WR group isnt in much better shape.
Had we signed a starting caliber OL, then Mustipher shifts to depth instead of starter and the cascade effect raises the entire unit. We had 4 guys who we know can’t play (Davenport, Simmons, Mustipher, Dozier) + 4 late round picks we hope can play. That’s not good depth IMO and not a “raised floor”.
Had we signed a starting caliber OL, then Mustipher shifts to depth instead of starter and the cascade effect raises the entire unit. We had 4 guys who we know can’t play (Davenport, Simmons, Mustipher, Dozier) + 4 late round picks we hope can play. That’s not good depth IMO and not a “raised floor”.
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I was in the same boat as most of the rest here. Back after Nagy's first year I was totally excited. I was convinced that Trubisky would be good, thinking his bouts of scattershot play were something he'd outgrow. Boy was I wrong about that.IE wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:39 am I think maybe where you're going here is trying to draw an analogy with then & now. Does that mean I was delusional in August of '18 because it was plausible that after a complete year and offseason a creative young coach and a young high draft pick 2nd year QB with potential could take a big step up? Even after knowing what I know, I still see that as being a reasonable thing to believe...until the reality is established one way or the other. I do see a parallel with the rationale I'm using now to be positive. One could argue "fool me once/twice" - but I feel the ground is a lot more firm under JF1 for multiple reasons (elite accuracy deep, ability to throw off platform, expected offensive philosophy that knows coming in it has to emphasize he strengths, depth and athleticism of weapons). If Byron Pringle turns out to be a dud for him and Vay Jones has stone hands and Kmet isn't good and the Oline has him being sacked or pressured 15 times a game then yes it could get ugly. That is what the national media is saying this time - that JF1 is being under-served. The doubt is not about the new regime or the QB. It is about the supporting cast - and in that case I believe Poles as adequately addressed the risk and added depth to keep the floor higher than the national media is having so much fun predicting.
I do agree with the rest of what you say there, IE. Having Fields as QB just feels...different than having Mitch under center, doesn't it? Fields could certainly still bust, but he's so much more talented than Mitch. It seems unlikely that he'll disappoint on a Trubisky-like level.
Also with you on the football media not really paying attention. I know I've already mentioned the article I read the other day, but it said the Bears defense is going to hurt because it lost Goldman, Hicks and Mack. And I'm like--really?
Last edited by Heinz D. on Sun Jul 03, 2022 1:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Yeah...if Mustipher is a starter, I will NOT be a happy camper. I'm praying to the football gods on that one. I don't even want him as depth, really. I'd just as soon he was out looking for another team...dplank wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:56 am Had we signed a starting caliber OL, then Mustipher shifts to depth instead of starter and the cascade effect raises the entire unit. We had 4 guys who we know can’t play (Davenport, Simmons, Mustipher, Dozier) + 4 late round picks we hope can play. That’s not good depth IMO and not a “raised floor”.
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I'm open minded that Mustipher can improve as a player, and that RG is an easier position than C to play which should help him. But it's definitely risky, just as starting Thomas/Carter/Kramer/Eislen would be risky. The floor couldn't be any lower there IMO. That said, the vets I've been hoping for since the big FA wave hit are, by and large, still available and waiting to sign once camps start. So we have a chance to get these guys in pads, see what they can/can't do, and then sign someone if it looks like a shit show.
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If someone were lost in the desert for 40 years, say since 1985, and they finally thought they saw an oasis, would you fault them for sprinting to something that wound up being a giant mound of sand?Moriarty wrote: ↑Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:44 amI will take this opportunity to point out (to everyone in general) -IE wrote: ↑Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:44 am
They really sold us hard going into '19. "Nagy 2.0" was supposed to take them to a new level but then Nagy was quickly exposed as an offensive fraud not genius. And Although Vic was replaced the D was mostly intact it seemed. Who knew that Amos and Callahan were the good ones and the star CB and FS were a mirage? The GM should have. He didn't. He paid the wrong guys too frequently.
Bears fans bought in hook, line, and sinker on this.
The national sport media was cautious and not sold.
Bear fans savaged the "know-nothing" "anti-Bear" national sport media, including here quite a bit.
The national sport media was completely right.
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I guess you're a little more optimistic about Mustipher than I am. It does seem like Flus is giving the kid a decent chance too, so maybe there is SOME hope there. At least he won't be the starting center, so we've got that going for us...which is nice. I agree the floors of the rookies would be comparable, and it wouldn't surprise me at all that if no moves are made, Thomas beats out Mustipher for RG. Or maybe Kramer flashes enough he's the C and Patrick moves to RG. There are lots of possibilities, which does give me hope, as to the overall line situation.dplank wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:37 am I'm open minded that Mustipher can improve as a player, and that RG is an easier position than C to play which should help him. But it's definitely risky, just as starting Thomas/Carter/Kramer/Eislen would be risky. The floor couldn't be any lower there IMO. That said, the vets I've been hoping for since the big FA wave hit are, by and large, still available and waiting to sign once camps start. So we have a chance to get these guys in pads, see what they can/can't do, and then sign someone if it looks like a shit show.
Another hope of mine? Poles has targeted guys on other teams that will probably be cut, and we can then add another OL and DL.
Can't say that analogy isn't apt...but boy, is it depressing...The Marshall Plan wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:49 am If someone were lost in the desert for 40 years, say since 1985, and they finally thought they saw an oasis, would you fault them for sprinting to something that wound up being a giant mound of sand?
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Mustipher with McNagy calling the plays? No thanks
Mustipher with Getsy/Flus calling the plays - I’m open minded on that.
Mustipher with Getsy/Flus calling the plays - I’m open minded on that.
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Well, can't say I'm going to vigorously argue that. But...a lot of Mustipher's problems last year stemmed from him getting absolutely obliterated at the point of attack. And that's just flat-out terrible, and completely unacceptable. As I said, Flus is giving him a chance, so maybe there's something there, but I'll be very surprised if that's the case. It would be phenomenal for the team if Mustipher turned out to be a decent RG, but I'm not seein' it.Ditka’s dictaphone wrote: ↑Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:56 pm Mustipher with McNagy calling the plays? No thanks
Mustipher with Getsy/Flus calling the plays - I’m open minded on that.
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Okay, I confess, the last time I was this excited was actually 2006.
I'm not very sorry to say that I missed most of the Bears excitement of 2018 because of a lady - she was more exciting than football for most of that year and into the next. Such is life.
I'm not very sorry to say that I missed most of the Bears excitement of 2018 because of a lady - she was more exciting than football for most of that year and into the next. Such is life.
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I don't know how anyone can say where the floor is on this revamped Oline. There are two many open questions. Open questions does imply more risk but doesn't automatically mean the worst case will happen. I know it is tempting to look at the lesser experience and conclude that more often than not an inexperienced (especially with some 5th rounders) Oline should struggle (low floor). But the surrounding context and confidence in their approach to me implies that they feel they know things that right now nobody else does, in terms of the competence of the group. Because the lack of action, the increased discipline and standards, statements about organic improvement from simply removing the old regime and clear moves to make the team more athletic to address the needs of the new system.... sort of blow away the previous tape, grades and assumptions about these players. Don't they?
Things we know:
- They feel they are good enough right now (have what they want) that they didn't sign any even medium-name FA
- They've established expectations about fitness & commitment
- They definitely like smart guys, and I'm guessing it is because of what they're going to be asked to understand & do (which explains what maybe they DO like about Mustipher)
- The LG used to be highly thought-of, and the two 2nd year OTs flashed some ability as rookies in less than ideal circumstances
- They have a big enough bankroll if they want/need to make a move later
Things we don't know:
- What they really think about Jenkins. Almost all speculation is plausible - he could be in doghouse or they could be just doing due diligence.
- If they really think Jones is ready on the left, or they are just using time they have to try to manifest it because he does have the measurables (and is a smart/cool guy which is great)
- How pro-ready is Zach Thomas. He's one of those "hyper competitive football families" guys, and seems born to play. Is he maybe in play for the RG spot?
- Do they really like Kramer as an NFL player and maybe a real player at C sooner than later, or was it a later round flyer
- Did they really start out not liking Borom? Or were people on the internet projecting their own bias onto the situation and they really had no special opinion about him? I'm guessing the latter not former. Poles did come in saying guys were out of position, and I assumed he meant Borom and Jenk. Their instant embrace of Borom seems like a huge positive.
Things we know:
- They feel they are good enough right now (have what they want) that they didn't sign any even medium-name FA
- They've established expectations about fitness & commitment
- They definitely like smart guys, and I'm guessing it is because of what they're going to be asked to understand & do (which explains what maybe they DO like about Mustipher)
- The LG used to be highly thought-of, and the two 2nd year OTs flashed some ability as rookies in less than ideal circumstances
- They have a big enough bankroll if they want/need to make a move later
Things we don't know:
- What they really think about Jenkins. Almost all speculation is plausible - he could be in doghouse or they could be just doing due diligence.
- If they really think Jones is ready on the left, or they are just using time they have to try to manifest it because he does have the measurables (and is a smart/cool guy which is great)
- How pro-ready is Zach Thomas. He's one of those "hyper competitive football families" guys, and seems born to play. Is he maybe in play for the RG spot?
- Do they really like Kramer as an NFL player and maybe a real player at C sooner than later, or was it a later round flyer
- Did they really start out not liking Borom? Or were people on the internet projecting their own bias onto the situation and they really had no special opinion about him? I'm guessing the latter not former. Poles did come in saying guys were out of position, and I assumed he meant Borom and Jenk. Their instant embrace of Borom seems like a huge positive.
2023 Chicago Bears... emerging from a long hibernation, and hungry!
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That was more important than football? Huh?
First off, I liked your breakdown (which I didn't quote)--I think it summarizes just about everything pretty well.IE wrote: ↑Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:31 am I don't know how anyone can say where the floor is on this revamped Oline. There are two many open questions. Open questions does imply more risk but doesn't automatically mean the worst case will happen. I know it is tempting to look at the lesser experience and conclude that more often than not an inexperienced (especially with some 5th rounders) Oline should struggle (low floor). But the surrounding context and confidence in their approach to me implies that they feel they know things that right now nobody else does, in terms of the competence of the group. Because the lack of action, the increased discipline and standards, statements about organic improvement from simply removing the old regime and clear moves to make the team more athletic to address the needs of the new system.... sort of blow away the previous tape, grades and assumptions about these players. Don't they?
As to what I bolded...I'm not so sure on that. I mean, obviously, we can't say for certain, but to predict they will be bad (as many have) is kind of out there. Why? Well, Borom ended up playing around half a season, and was pretty good, IMO. Not spectacular, but solid enough. Next, we're fairly confident that Whitehair and Patrick can get the job done, aren't we? Davenport is great depth, and an acceptable emergency starter. Daniels was pretty '"meh" last year--people in the football media can claim otherwise (I've seen him called "their best offensive lineman" more than once), but we're Bears fans who actually follow the team, and we know better. The Steelers paid him $8 mil in hopes that he'd regain his mojo. Poles wasn't risking spending $8 mil for "meh" and lack of effort. It happens.
Peters probably wasn't coming back, Jenkins might be good, and Mustipher won't be the center anymore. My point? They weren't bad last year, and should be better this year. Will that be good enough? Hard to say. But when Louis Riddick calls them the worst line in the league, he's not really paying attention. Sure, they COULD be, but I'd say the odds are against it.
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I don't think we have a mutual understanding of how a "floor" assessment works. A "floor" is a reasonable worst case performance view. When assessing a floor for a rookie, you basically look at how players have historically fared based on their draft status, and take the lower end of that performance spectrum as the assumption - hence a "floor" view. When assessing a floor for a guy with a lot of playing experience, you basically take their average season. When assessing a floor for a guy with just a year or maybe 2 in the league, you basically take their current play and don't project any improvement (note, you don't project a decline either). Since the floor represents a reasonable worst case, you expect that the unit will, in reality, perform much better than their floor unless everything goes wrong all at once (which seems to be the point you keep making). So if you use this method, you can establish a floor. You seem to be mixing a floor assessment with a performance projection, those are two different things.IE wrote: ↑Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:31 am I don't know how anyone can say where the floor is on this revamped Oline. There are two many open questions. Open questions does imply more risk but doesn't automatically mean the worst case will happen. I know it is tempting to look at the lesser experience and conclude that more often than not an inexperienced (especially with some 5th rounders) Oline should struggle (low floor). But the surrounding context and confidence in their approach to me implies that they feel they know things that right now nobody else does, in terms of the competence of the group. Because the lack of action, the increased discipline and standards, statements about organic improvement from simply removing the old regime and clear moves to make the team more athletic to address the needs of the new system.... sort of blow away the previous tape, grades and assumptions about these players. Don't they?
Things we know:
- They feel they are good enough right now (have what they want) that they didn't sign any even medium-name FA
- They've established expectations about fitness & commitment
- They definitely like smart guys, and I'm guessing it is because of what they're going to be asked to understand & do (which explains what maybe they DO like about Mustipher)
- The LG used to be highly thought-of, and the two 2nd year OTs flashed some ability as rookies in less than ideal circumstances
- They have a big enough bankroll if they want/need to make a move later
Things we don't know:
- What they really think about Jenkins. Almost all speculation is plausible - he could be in doghouse or they could be just doing due diligence.
- If they really think Jones is ready on the left, or they are just using time they have to try to manifest it because he does have the measurables (and is a smart/cool guy which is great)
- How pro-ready is Zach Thomas. He's one of those "hyper competitive football families" guys, and seems born to play. Is he maybe in play for the RG spot?
- Do they really like Kramer as an NFL player and maybe a real player at C sooner than later, or was it a later round flyer
- Did they really start out not liking Borom? Or were people on the internet projecting their own bias onto the situation and they really had no special opinion about him? I'm guessing the latter not former. Poles did come in saying guys were out of position, and I assumed he meant Borom and Jenk. Their instant embrace of Borom seems like a huge positive.
So with this unit, we have two guys (Whitehair, Lucas) where their floor is fairly high and basically who expect them to be - solid players. The floor for Mustipher, Jenkins, and Borom are basically who they were last year - Mustipher was absolutely terrible, Jenkins is a big unknown, and Borom has the highest floor of the 3 (Jenkins has the highest ceiling IMO). We can hope and project improvement from these guys, but that's not a "floor" view. The floor for Davenport, Simmons, Eislen, and Dozier is/was laughably low. And then the floor for a 5th, two 6ths, and a 7th round draft pick is also very, very low - we simply have no idea until they play what will happen and history isn't kind to guys drafted here, particularly in their rookie campaigns. So as a unit, we have 3/5 of the line with a very low floor - that's not good IMO.
So that's a floor view, it does not include projections or any assumptions of improvement or decline based on coaching, scheme, personal development, etc. because that's not what a floor is. A ceiling is a reasonable best case performance view. The longer a guy plays, the more the floor and ceiling converges to a pretty reasonable projection of player performance.