Rd 3, P71: Velus Jones, WR - Tennessee

[IE]

From 2018 to 2021, there have been 13 receivers taken in Round 3. Only five had more than 30 catches as a rookie, and only three — Michael Gallup, Terry McLaurin and Diontae Johnson — had more than 500 yards during their rookie season. There have been 45 wide receivers drafted in the third round since 2011. Those wideouts average 39 targets, 23 receptions, and 319 yards, resulting in two touchdowns. The top 12 have become successful WRs. Of the other 33, only 3 have had some success. There is a correlation between rookie season success and career success so let's hope the Bears get production out of Jones.

I'm going to suggest the "3rd round" criteria is arbitrary and on it's own can't produce anything that could be considered significant or prescriptive.

[Bearfacts]

I was just watching some video highlights of Aaron Jones that included some pass plays with Jones lined up in the slot and a few others of him slipping out of the backfield to make a grab with a whole lot of open grass in front of him. If Getsy has plans to use Jones in a similar role we may be even more than pleasantly surprised.

Jones had some huge gains on those plays and he doesn't have the same kind of speed or elusiveness Jones has. Some Bears fans are thinking way too much about how we need the offense to look like and line up like we have in the past and failed to produce enough to win. It's time to start thinking differently. The entire plan is different.

[Bearfacts]

I was just watching some video highlights of Aaron Jones that included some pass plays with Jones lined up in the slot and a few others of him slipping out of the backfield to make a grab with a whole lot of open grass in front of him. If Getsy has plans to use Velus Jones in a similar role we may be even more than pleasantly surprised.

A. Jones had some huge gains on those plays and he doesn't have the same kind of speed or elusiveness V. Jones has. Some Bears fans are thinking way too much about how we need the offense to look like and line up like we have in the past and failed to produce enough to win. It's time to start thinking differently. The entire plan is different.

[Bearfacts]

Why am I getting a new post when all I want is to edit the initial one? Maybe I have gone insane.

[wab]

Why am I getting a new post when all I want is to edit the initial one? Maybe I have gone insane.

Because you are clicking the quote icon instead of the edit icon

[Grizzled]

From 2018 to 2021, there have been 13 receivers taken in Round 3. Only five had more than 30 catches as a rookie, and only three — Michael Gallup, Terry McLaurin and Diontae Johnson — had more than 500 yards during their rookie season. There have been 45 wide receivers drafted in the third round since 2011. Those wideouts average 39 targets, 23 receptions, and 319 yards, resulting in two touchdowns. The top 12 have become successful WRs. Of the other 33, only 3 have had some success. There is a correlation between rookie season success and career success so let's hope the Bears get production out of Jones.

I'm going to suggest the "3rd round" criteria is arbitrary and on it's own can't produce anything that could be considered significant or prescriptive.

It is arbitrary in that some “draft experts” say that a guy has value in a certain round. It’s not arbitrary to compare performances of guys already drafted in a specific round.

[IE]

I'm going to suggest the "3rd round" criteria is arbitrary and on it's own can't produce anything that could be considered significant or prescriptive.

It is arbitrary in that some “draft experts” say that a guy has value in a certain round. It’s not arbitrary to compare performances of guys already drafted in a specific round.

It is arbitrary though, because draft order is influenced by a lot of other things that the qualifications/skills of the player. Especially for skill positions the depth of great candidates can very dramatically - there are players both above and below the 3rd round who easily could have been IN the 3rd round in different seasons. By definition, the round is arbitrary.

Including all-time 3rd rounders does help increase the size of the pool. But there are too many unique aspects of each player and draft to draw conclusions. Also, how do the same percentages and success rates compare to other levels of the draft? Is it really informative at all?

Regardless, I believe *some* analysis around this is useful for showing the average success rates of players by round and in tiers (e.g. probowler, starter, backup, etc)...that helps establish pick value for trades. But averaging stats for a position in a round, breaking into good/bad and projecting that should be expected of a given player is just not credible.

This is an example of off-season desperate made-up content that fills the void but isn't really useful. I saw the original article on twitter and it reads like it was written by an 8th grader trying to sound like a writer.

[Grizzled]

It is arbitrary in that some “draft experts” say that a guy has value in a certain round. It’s not arbitrary to compare performances of guys already drafted in a specific round.

It is arbitrary though, because draft order is influenced by a lot of other things that the qualifications/skills of the player. Especially for skill positions the depth of great candidates can very dramatically - there are players both above and below the 3rd round who easily could have been IN the 3rd round in different seasons. By definition, the round is arbitrary.

Including all-time 3rd rounders does help increase the size of the pool. But there are too many unique aspects of each player and draft to draw conclusions. Also, how do the same percentages and success rates compare to other levels of the draft? Is it really informative at all?

Regardless, I believe *some* analysis around this is useful for showing the average success rates of players by round and in tiers (e.g. probowler, starter, backup, etc)...that helps establish pick value for trades. But averaging stats for a position in a round, breaking into good/bad and projecting that should be expected of a given player is just not credible.

This is an example of off-season desperate made-up content that fills the void but isn't really useful. I saw the original article on twitter and it reads like it was written by an 8th grader trying to sound like a writer.

You hit the nail with the statement about success rate by round. It will vary by position; for example a lot of guards are drafted in lower rounds so there will be more success from those rounds.

[Bearfacts]

Why am I getting a new post when all I want is to edit the initial one? Maybe I have gone insane.

Because you are clicking the quote icon instead of the edit icon

Yup.....and I'm 100% sober as well. Must be insanity then eh?

[IE]

I like this guy, brought to our (or at least my) attention by Kylo Bearen (thanks man).

It is long and detailed. Some is rehash but much isn't. Good stuff (except for having to look at this guy's bedroom... sheesh).

Things I found interesting:
- the PFF stats and where Jones slots in to (I think) all-time stats. What I found interesting is the things that can't be taught (separation) he's literally up with the best of all time. And then some of the other areas (technique when covered) is stuff where I'm thankful the Bears have brought in one of if not the top WR coaches in the league.
- from 21:00 or so on... I love how this guy gets away from "highlights" that we've all seen & shares film where Jones DOESN'T catch the ball... emphasizing how bad Tennessee's QB was and how much was left on the table.
- I also like when he gets into speculation about how Jones will be used and especially the Robert Woods usage comparison (not saying he's Woods but should be used in the same way).
- at 30:40 he shows why we're going to love him as a Bear
- 37:37 LOL

[Bearfacts]

Really nice work up. I like this guy. He does a great job of laying stuff out.

If it hasn't already become clear as far as how Getsy can use V. Jones this should do it. I can see a lot of potential for both YAC and big gains if they can execute these plays well. It's also something the Bears haven't done much of or even well when they have and it should also help Fields get the ball out faster taking some heat off the OL in pass protection.

Get this stuff installed and working well and next spring Poles can add what fans seem to want in a true X type WR either via FA or we draft one possibly getting Fields his own Jamar Chase type guy. But for now using Jones in a similar fashion to how GB has run these concepts and with a better prospect for them should be pretty exciting to watch.

[AZ_Bearfan]

[IE]

I think Vay Jones (soon to be referred to as "Smoke Jones" at least by me) is my favorite out of all the rookies, and the one I'm rooting for the most. That's hard because I really like almost ALL of the picks for the first time I can remember - especially BJones and the DBs (and Hicks as an underdog that I think might shock people by being better than EJax).

Speed to burn is fantastic. You can already see him on tape running fast with a DB like Gordon on him, and then suddenly he shift gears and separates. That football speed is not the same thing as track speed - it is a rare thing that few have, like Reek Hill.

Even more I love the kid's earnestness, humility, intelligence and willingness to put in the work. Having a degree from USC and a Masters from Tennessee is pretty impressive given the demands of the programs. He put in the work. He's going to be great with the coaches and a great teammate.

I used to be an Anthony Miller supporter - just hoping he'd grow up and turn from a turd into a pro who could take advantage of his physical talent. But Velus is the "anti-Miller". He has everything Miller has/had, and a lot more. And that will translate to success on the field.