2023 Draft Sims

College football and the NFL Draft

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karhu
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Moriarty wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:08 pm Really hard to determine what they need when Fields is trainwrecking the entire passing game
Mostly I'm still going with the same positions and same guys

Fanspeak/Buffalo FAMBASE

Traded early 2 + 5 for late 2 + 3

1-10 3T Brian Breese
2-23 C Jarrett Patterson
3-10 TE Sam LaPorta
3-33 LB Owen Pappoe
4-10 QB Hendon Hooker
7-10 LB Troy Brown
So begins the Quest to Figure Out Where QB Fits.

Any thoughts about Will Leavis? I don't remember anything about him, which is weird since I'm pretty sure I've had his team on the TV once or twice. Early reports aren't encouraging, and I can't see why he's rated so highly.
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karhu wrote: Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:28 am
Moriarty wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:08 pm Really hard to determine what they need when Fields is trainwrecking the entire passing game
Mostly I'm still going with the same positions and same guys

Fanspeak/Buffalo FAMBASE

Traded early 2 + 5 for late 2 + 3

1-10 3T Brian Breese
2-23 C Jarrett Patterson
3-10 TE Sam LaPorta
3-33 LB Owen Pappoe
4-10 QB Hendon Hooker
7-10 LB Troy Brown
So begins the Quest to Figure Out Where QB Fits.

Any thoughts about Will Leavis? I don't remember anything about him, which is weird since I'm pretty sure I've had his team on the TV once or twice. Early reports aren't encouraging, and I can't see why he's rated so highly.

Funny you mention that.

I have taken some Day 3 fliers (McCall, Hooker, Cunningham, Slough) when I thought value was there and not at other spots.
I haven't been and am still not at a place where I'm considering QB early in 2023.
But I just stumbled across a review of Levis and it intrigued me enough to look at some more. In the abstract, I liked what I read.
https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Wil ... -PennState
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Moriarty wrote: Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:33 am
Funny you mention that.

I have taken some Day 3 fliers (McCall, Hooker, Cunningham, Slough) when I thought value was there and not at other spots.
I haven't been and am still not at a place where I'm considering QB early in 2023.
But I just stumbled across a review of Levis and it intrigued me enough to look at some more. In the abstract, I liked what I read.
https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Wil ... -PennState
Thanks much. The interceptions and sacks worried me, but plenty of good QBs get stuck with bad receivers, bad schemes, or both in college.
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https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/
Doesn't record trades, but obviously traded down a lot
(I also set it up to have us initially pick 9th in all rounds, which is much more realistic than what they have. Have to do this a lot right now.)

1-21 Joey Porter Jr CB Penn State
6'2 190 4.5, 3yr starter
Adds much needed size and talent

2-52 DeMarvion Overshown LB Texas
6'3 225 4.55, 3yr starter
Still planning on being done with Roquan right now

2-53 Jarrett Patterson C Notre Dame
6'5 305 5.15, 4yr starter, AllAmer 3rd
I think everyone gets now why this is my 4th straight draft year screaming for C

3-89 Dontayvion Wicks WR Virginia
6'2 210 4.5, 1200yds in 21, 2yr starter
Production oddly down from last year, but worth a try

4-108 Luke Musgrave TE Oregon State
6'5 250 4.55, 2yr starter, uncle was NFL QB
Fast pass catcher

4-109 Mazi Smith 1T Michigan
6'2 335 4.95, 2yr starter
Lifting this from Karhu. Should be stouter than Blackson.

4-121 Chase Brown HB Illinois
5'10 205 4.5, 2yr starter, 6ypc and on pace to crush last year's 1000yds
Still also planning on Montgomery wanting too much.

4-123 Al Walcott FS/CB Baylor
6'1 200 ?, 2yr starter
Had 3 picks as a corner last year, replaces Jalen Pitre at the STAR this year

5-140 Brenton Cox Jr DE Florida
6'3 255 4.65, 3yr starter

6-168 Dontay Demus Jr WR Maryland
6'3 215 4.45*, ~3yr starter
Hasn't rebounded from ACL well at all so far, but worth a flier

6-173 Mohamoud Diabate LB Utah/Florida
6'3 220 4.55, 3yr starter

7-197 Walter Rouse OT Stanford
6'5 320 5.2, 4yr starter at LT


Got a lot of fresh faces in this batch, with only 5 priors and 7 new
Couldn't squeeze 3T in, only got late depth at T, no developmental QB. But still pleased with how many needs got hit.
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I like the number of picks. But the Bears needs offensive firepower. At least 2 WRs although 1st rounders are pretty iffy making it. I'd like to see the Bears take a flyer on Sam LaPorta, TE, University of Iowa. That school has turned into a TE-producing machine. Definitely at least one OL. A developmental QB, the old Bellichick approach to take one every year.
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Grizzled wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:00 am I like the number of picks. But the Bears needs offensive firepower. At least 2 WRs although 1st rounders are pretty iffy making it.
The problem with WR right now is what you were saying earlier
Grizzled wrote: Mon Sep 19, 2022 7:34 am I've been mostly underwhelmed by the WR play in college from what I've seen so far. The preseason top guys (from LSU and Ohio State) have barely contributed so far. Brock Bowers from GA has been lights out but isn't eligible until 2024. If the Bears end up with a high pick, there may not be a guy they feel is the answer.
Almost all the ones I went into the season watching closely are doing some serious faceplanting right now.
New good early options either haven't emerged or I just haven't caught on to them yet.
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Moriarty wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 10:54 am
Grizzled wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:00 am I like the number of picks. But the Bears needs offensive firepower. At least 2 WRs although 1st rounders are pretty iffy making it.
The problem with WR right now is what you were saying earlier
Grizzled wrote: Mon Sep 19, 2022 7:34 am I've been mostly underwhelmed by the WR play in college from what I've seen so far. The preseason top guys (from LSU and Ohio State) have barely contributed so far. Brock Bowers from GA has been lights out but isn't eligible until 2024. If the Bears end up with a high pick, there may not be a guy they feel is the answer.
Almost all the ones I went into the season watching closely are doing some serious faceplanting right now.
New good early options either haven't emerged or I just haven't caught on to them yet.
Yep, there were 4 projected in the 1st round and only one (Addison from USC) is in the top 25 for receiving yards. No ne else is setting the college world on fire.
Drafts are like snowflakes, no two are alike.
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A little mock-draft therapy via PFN.

Trades
1.2 (CJ Stroud) to Seattle for 1.4, 1.14, 2.35, 3.67
1.4 (Jalen Carter) to Atlanta for 1.7, 2.38, and a 2024 1st

1.7 - Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU. I know, no one's really stepped up. But I like his game and upside as much as I did when the season started.

EDIT: I'm not all that worried about Boutte's performance so far on a surprisingly bad LSU team. But I just read up on him, and he seems like an asshole. So. Call this a reach, but I like Quentin Johnston here. Or, more likely, Levis/Skoronski/Jones and then Johnston at 14.

1.14 - Will Levis, QB, Kentucky. I've seen enough. I don't think Fields is an NFL QB. If Fields suddenly gives us reason to expect anything from him, switch Levis for that Skoronski guy from Northwestern or that Broderick Jones guy from Georgia.

2.33 - Nolan Smith, DE, Georgia. Just good value here, and gives us three young, promising DEs plus whatever former Colts Eberflus feels like starting.

2.35 - Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse. I don't have a good sense of the OT class just now, but Bergeron's looked really, really good from what I've seen.

2.38 - Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia. He's somehow much bigger, a much better blocker, far more agile, much faster, and a far better route-runner than Cole Kmet. With better hands. I'll even bet he can line up wide at times.

3.65 - Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama. Call me Edmund Hillary. I didn't want to take a RB, but I took Gibbs because he was there. Let the coaches figure it out.

3.67 - Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan. Alan Williams is the only coach I trust and respect at this point, so I'm sure he'll see the wisdom in drafting a real nose tackle.

4.101 - Olusegun Oluwatimi, C, Michigan. He's looked good to me, but honestly, a competent center here. Tippmann, anyone.

5.133 - Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon St. Why two TEs? Why not? They're both mismatches, and this is the working-class man's version of adding both Washington and Brock Bowers. Musgrave's another guy we could line up wide. Hell, play 'em both, along with Kmet, and give our QB 20 feet of receiver to throw to.

197. Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan St. Just need more talent in the pipeline. Could be a nice complement to Mooney, Jones, and whoever reveals himself to be an actual NFL player over the next ten weeks.
Last edited by karhu on Sat Oct 15, 2022 1:23 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Same here

Fanspeak - Buffalo FAMBase

Traded down 12 from 7, then 45 more

Trade Partner: Jacksonville Jaguars

Sent:
Round 1 Pick 7

Received:
Round 1 Pick 19
Round 2 Pick 20
Round 3 Pick 20
Round 4 Pick 20
Round 4 Pick 25

Trade Partner: Buffalo Bills

Sent:
Round 1 Pick 19

Received:
Round 2 Pick 32
Round 3 Pick 32
Round 4 Pick 32
Round 5 Pick 17



38: R2 P7 DE Andre Carter II - Army
51: R2 P20 WR Quentin Johnston - TCU
63: R2 P32 CB Eli Ricks - Alabama
70: R3 P7 C Jarrett Patterson - Notre Dame
83: R3 P20 1T Mazi Smith - Michigan
95: R3 P32 HB Chase Brown - Illinois
109: R4 P7 WR Dontayvion Wicks - Virginia
122: R4 P20 TE Luke Musgrave - Oregon State
127: R4 P25 LB DeMarvion Overshown - Texas
134: R4 P32 QB Grayson McCall - Coastal Carolina
142: R5 P7 CB Jaylon Jones - Texas A&M
152: R5 P17 OT Connor Galvin - Baylor
222: R7 P7 LB Mohamoud Diabate - Utah
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NFLMockDraftDatabase

traded 41
for 68, 86, 107, 138



1-11
Quentin Johnston WR | TCU

3-68
Jarrett Patterson C | Notre Dame

3-72
Mazi Smith 1T | Michigan

3-86
Jaxson Kirkland OT | Washington

4-103
Chase Brown HB | Illinois

4-107
Owen Pappoe LB | Auburn

5-134
Luke Musgrave TE | Oregon State

5-138
Mohamoud Diabate LB | Utah

6-196
Grayson McCall QB | Coastal Carolina
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It’s been a long time between games so I jumped on pro football network’s draft Sim and low and behold the bears have the number 2 pick. That’s mildly irritating but onwards:

Trade 1 : (haul)

Seattle receive Pick 2, Bears receive picks 5, 14, 36 & 45

Trade 2: (haul)

Falcons receive pick 5, Bears receive picks 8, 39, 71

Pick 8 = Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio state

Trade 3:
Detroit receive picks 197 and 14, Bears receive picks 20 and 70

Pick 20 = Quentin Johnston WR TCU
Pick 33 = O’Cyrus Torrence Guard Florida
Pick 36 = Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT Penn State
Pick 39 = John Michael Schmitz Center Minnesota
Pick 45 = Justin Flowe LB Oregon
Pick 65 = Tyler Davis DT Clemson
Pick 70 = Zion Tupuola-Fetui EDGE Washington
Pick 71 = Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson CB TCU
Pick 101 = Rashad Torrence II Safety Florida
Pick 133 = Jaelyn Duncan OT Maryland


Happy with this :clap:
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Ditka’s dictaphone wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 12:38 pm It’s been a long time between games so I jumped on pro football network’s draft Sim and low and behold the bears have the number 2 pick. That’s
When that happens, I make a trade at the very start, moving all our draft picks (later or earlier) to be in line with what I think is more realistic (8-9ish). Future picks are good for adjustments. And/or 'burn' an extra pick you got during adjustment on a low ranking nobody and don't count it.
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IDK how well a 360lb guard fits in this offense. And if Duncan is available at 133 it’ll be a f’n miracle.
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I"ve developed a man crush on Hendon Hooker, QB, from Tennessee. Unfortunately, he's moving up the boards, should be a 2nd round pick now. If he's available in the 3rd, definitely. Maybe if he's around in the 2nd. He'd fit this offense well and the Bears need to follow the Bellechick philosophy and take a QB more often in the draft.
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Josh Downs is a good option as a 2nd round WR.

Small but good hands, great speed and runs routes.





I like Overshown at LB

My W receivers in order:
Jaxon S-N
Addison
Boutte
Johnston
Downs
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Ditka’s dictaphone wrote: Sun Oct 23, 2022 9:41 am Josh Downs is a good option as a 2nd round WR.

Small but good hands, great speed and runs routes.





I like Overshown at LB

My W receivers in order:
Jaxon S-N
Addison
Boutte
Johnston
Downs
Jaxon, Addison, and Boutte haven't lived up to their pre-season hype. Jaxson and Addison were absolute beasts last year. No one emerging like a Ja'mar Chase this year.
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PFN's got the Bears down to #14, which might be about right.

For some reason, Washington wanted to give me a 2024 second-rounder to move down one spot, so I took it.

1.15: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU. I don't like the late breakout, but everything else screams Our Guy. A much bigger Allen Robinson, maybe, who's a slightly lesser athlete but a much better football player. He's open even when he's covered, and he's got some detail to his game that should get him open quite a bit.

2.44: John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota. South 'burbs represent! Even though he's one of those rich kids from H-F. I'd pegged him as another mid-round center, but the Travis Frederick comparisons are piling up and holding water, and mid-second is about the right spot for a 10-year anchor.

3.75: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma. I don't want to underestimate the difficulty of moving from LT to RT, but Harrison's a huge value here IMSO. We set now? We set now.

4.110: Mazi Smith, NT, Michigan. Last year, I couldn't stop mocking Jequez Ezzard to the Bears. Then he lit up the Senior Bowl and...ran his 40 backwards or something at his pro day, went undrafted, got hurt in TC, and might be out of football altogether. Smith is my guy this year, and I hope I haven't jinxed him. Anyway, someone needs to lock Eberflus in the bathroom for this pick if he doesn't see the need for a real NT. Checks every box for teammatery and professiprojection, too.

5. 147: Tony Grimes, CB, UNC. Wha? Really shouldn't be down here from what I've seen, and I wasn't planning to take a CB, but you can never be deep enough in the secondary. Probably exclusively an outside guy, but a fifth-rounder on depth who can push your starters isn't bad.

7.209: Gabe Hall, DL, Baylor. Did he rob a bank or something? No idea why he's all the way down here, and I like Justin Jones a lot, but Hall's just a different cat. Could sub in for Jones on running downs, and I'll bet he could play some DE, too. Not going to mention Dan Hampton or JJ Watt here, nosiree.
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screenshot-www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com-2022.10.31-18_44_35.png
Just did a draft sim after the Roquan trade today, really liked how this one turned out at this point in the season.
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DaSuperfan wrote: Mon Oct 31, 2022 8:47 pm screenshot-www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com-2022.10.31-18_44_35.png

Just did a draft sim after the Roquan trade today, really liked how this one turned out at this point in the season.
Solid job.

Also, kudos for doubling down on the Jaylon Joneses at CB, and tripling down on the Jaylons.
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Post-Roquan fun.

Traded 2.42 (Henry To'oTo'o) and 6.202 (Connor Pay) for 2.60 and 3.92

1.12: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia. But PFN said it would happen!

2.56: Ricky Stromberg, OC, Arkansas. Schmitz was gone. This continues our growing tradition of ass-kicking interior linemen who look like nerds.

2.60. Ivan Pace Jr., LB, Cincinnati. The hammer Roquan never was. Also dropped into coverage 50 times in one game this year and allowed negative yardage. Also a pass rusher. Also not Roquan Smith.

3.73: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee. Is he more than a fast guy? I dunno...what's the worst that could happen with a super-fast guy from Tennessee?

3.92: AT Perry, WR, Wake Forest. As big as ESB, but plays like a WR. Can he block? I don't care.

4.108: Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State. TE isn't a huge need, and it's not really a part of the offense right now. But Musgrave is a serious weapon. Add talent, find a way to use it, right?

4.131: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan. Because of course I'm drafting Mazi Smith. Put him next to Carter and watch them both eat.

5.139: Chase Brown, RB, Illinois. I dunno. I like Monty better than most, but Brown reminds me of a quicker Kareem Hunt, and Hunt has some of the best balance I've ever seen in a RB (and balance is my favorite thing at that position).

5.156: Grayson McCall, QB, Coastal Carolina. It's time. Not to replace Justin Fields, but to start adding a compelling developmental prospect every year that the cupboard isn't absolutely full.

I don't know what we have at G or OT, really. Neither, it seems, do our coaches. But we've got enough pieces at those positions that a center really could bring it all together. Could've used a DE, but as it happens, I'm gladder to have solidified the middle. Three new weapons for Fields, including two giants, and we could finally add a little methodical grind to the passing game.
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karhu wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:04 am
DaSuperfan wrote: Mon Oct 31, 2022 8:47 pm screenshot-www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com-2022.10.31-18_44_35.png

Just did a draft sim after the Roquan trade today, really liked how this one turned out at this point in the season.
Solid job.

Also, kudos for doubling down on the Jaylon Joneses at CB, and tripling down on the Jaylons.
Hah! I did think of that when I took him. However, this Jaylon Jones has more upside than our current Jaylon Jones. It would also allow Kyler to focus primarily at nickel if that's the route the coaching staff wants to take.
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https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

Now that we have so many picks, I can do a no trade version without twitching violently



1-12 Jordan Addison WR USC
5'11 175 4.45

2-42 Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE Kansas State
6'3 255 4.75, 2yr starter
Should top 20 sacks and 25 TFL in 2 yrs starting

22-56 Jarrett Patterson C Notre Dame
6'5 305 5.15, 4yr starter, AllAmer 3rd

3-73 DeMarvion Overshown LB Texas
6'3 225 4.55, 3yr starter

4-108 Luke Musgrave TE Oregon State
6'5 250 4.55, 2yr starter, uncle was NFL QB

4-131 Mazi Smith 1T Michigan
6'2 335 4.95, 2yr starter

5-139 Roschon Johnson RB Texas
6'1 220 4.35, 0yr starter
Light on carries & experience, but this big, fast, athletic ex-QB just oozes potential and opportunity for creativity
(Brown went at 130)

5-156 Mohamoud Diabate LB Utah/Florida
6'3 220 4.55, 3yr starter

7-207 Michael Penix Jr. QB Washington/Indiana
6'2 215 4.65
Resurrected his career after transferring

7-260c Avery Young FS/CB Rutgers
6'0 205 4.5, 5 yr starter (2 S/3 CB)
Experienced with decent triangle numbers


5 first-timers

It's a good thing we added Brisker last year. I'm really struggling to find any Day 3 safety depth with future upside.
Last edited by Moriarty on Thu Nov 03, 2022 10:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Mazi Smith seems like a weird fit for the defense, yet I see a lot of people mocking him to the Bears.
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wab wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:35 pm Mazi Smith seems like a weird fit for the defense, yet I see a lot of people mocking him to the Bears.
I don't really understand what they want at that position.
(I don't know if they do, either.)
In fact, my list of needs says "4) 1T.…………………Not sure what they want, but it can’t be what they have"


They cut Tonga
Kept Blackson
Kept Pennel
Played Watts a fair amount last week(?)
What is the pattern here???


Why do you think Mazi is odd?
Do you think he's a 0 only?

He has good heft and good speed/burst, supposedly, so I'm figuring he'd be fine as a 1.
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wab wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:35 pm Mazi Smith seems like a weird fit for the defense, yet I see a lot of people mocking him to the Bears.
From where I'm sitting, he's immensely disruptive vs the run and at least a pocket-dirtier against the pass. I get why Eberflus and Williams wouldn't want two of him, but I see a lot of room for one of him if he's playing next to a 3T who commands double-teams himself.
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wab
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If you look at the history of this defense, there’s not a lot of squatty and powerful 6’2 335lb interior linemen. Smith is disruptive in that he can push the pocket and be stout against the run. I just don’t see the fit.

Power isn’t what this defense uses at DT.
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wab does have a point re: Smith, his profile doesn't really fit the Flus/Lovie Cover 2 scheme. But one thing I do see that Smith excels at is explosiveness even though he's listed at 336, which is a trait that I believe Poles and Flus covet at all positions they're scouting. I think he'd pair well with someone like Jalen Carter, if we were able to get our hands on him in R1.
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wab wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:16 pm If you look at the history of this defense, there’s not a lot of squatty and powerful 6’2 335lb interior linemen. Smith is disruptive in that he can push the pocket and be stout against the run. I just don’t see the fit.

Power isn’t what this defense uses at DT.
I get that. I remember too many donut defenses all too well. And if I was trying to guess what we'll do in the next draft, I might take that into greater consideration. But I'm trying to guess what we should do, and in that light it makes a lot of sense to me.

Heck, the 46 was supposed to be all about gap penetration, too, and Dan Hampton himself thought William Perry added something great to it (if I'm remembering correctly--someone pretty central to that defense said something along the lines of "You just can't run against him. At all. That's what made the defense go.")
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wab wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:16 pm If you look at the history of this defense, there’s not a lot of squatty and powerful 6’2 335lb interior linemen. Smith is disruptive in that he can push the pocket and be stout against the run. I just don’t see the fit.

Power isn’t what this defense uses at DT.

I get what you're saying about his body type - he is an unusual physique and I have no doubt they'd ask him to slim down (320?) if he were a Bear.

But...what is the ideal T2 (or Cover 3) profile for the other DT?
Thinking back to the Lovie years, I barely remember any of them. And after researching a little - they're a pretty nondescript bunch.
And the NTs they've used or discarded this season doesn't really show much of a pattern, either.
Any iconic NTs from other T2 teams?

Looking at a T2 primer it says:
The defensive line in a Tampa 2 defense will employ a nose tackle, defensive tackle, and two defensive ends.

The defensive tackle will almost always line up in a 3 Technique, which means on the outside shoulder of the offensive guard.
The nose tackle on the other side of the line will line up usually in a 0-2 Technique, from heads up on the center to the inside shoulder of the other offensive guard.

Typically speaking, the nose tackle will be considered more of the run stuff and the gap filler.
He will be responsible for plugging the A gap on his side of the field and attempting to clog up the center and offensive guard on every play
.

The other defensive tackle is more of a pass rusher type who can get into the backfield quickly and effectively through the B gap.
This goes for passing plays and running plays.
This defensive tackle’s responsibility is to wreak havoc in the backfield.
That sounds to me like something Smith would be suitable for.
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Interesting points there, Mori. I couldn't even remember the name of the Colts NT, even though I've liked him when I've seen him. Grover Stewart, as it happens. Here's what his teammates say about him:

“I think at some point Grover just realized he was bigger and stronger than everybody,” linebacker Bobby Okereke said.

Said defensive end Kwity Paye: “Watch the film and all you see is him destroying centers and guards.”

And Odeyingbo, summing it up nicely: “Basically, he blows shit up.”

https://theathletic.com/3707138/2022/10 ... r-stewart/


And that's what I see Mazi Smith doing regularly.
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