Who Needs a QB?

[Moriarty]

(and would be interested in trading up?)

Talk here about the QB needy, who we could exploit


I did a quick list, using current draft order

Code: Select all

texans	yes	Mills, Davis 21/3
bears	no	Fields, Justin 21/1
sea	no?	SMITH, GENO U/LAC
lions	yes?	Goff, Jared T/LAR
eagles	no	Hurts, Jalen 20/2
caro	yes	Darnold, Sam T/NYJ
jags	no	Lawrence, Trevor 21/1
ariz	yes?	Murray, Kyler 19/1
colts	yes	RYAN, MATT T/Atl
raiders	yes?	CARR, DEREK 14/2
atl	yes?	Ridder, Desmond 22/3 mariota
gb	no	RODGERS, AARON 05/1  / love
texans	yes	Mills, Davis 21/3
pitt	no	Pickett, Kenny 22/1
lions	yes?	Goff, Jared T/LAR
lac	no?	Herbert, Justin 20/1
ne	no	Jones, Mac 21/1
wash	yes	Heinicke, Taylor SF20 / wentz
tb	no?	BRADY, TOM U/NE  / trask
sea	no?	SMITH, GENO U/LAC
titans	no?	TANNEHILL, RYAN T/Mia   / malik willis
jets	??	White, Mike SF19 / zach wilson
giants	yes?	Jones, Daniel 19/1
broncos	no?	WILSON, RUSSELL T/Sea
ravens	no	Jackson, Lamar 18/1
bengals	no	Burrow, Joe 20/1
cowboys	no	Prescott, Dak 16/4
chiefs	no	Mahomes, Patrick 17/1
vikes	no?	COUSINS, KIRK U/Was
bills	no	Allen, Josh 18/1
eagles	no	Hurts, Jalen 20/2

didn't research contract status, though

[Moriarty]

Some people think Seattle. I just don't see how you can dump a guy who's healthy, not old for a QB, not overpriced, and ranked in the top 10 (with plenty of attempts).

[karhu]

Some people think Seattle. I just don't see how you can dump a guy who's healthy, not old for a QB, not overpriced, and ranked in the top 10 (with plenty of attempts).

I'm hanging my hat near Seattle these days, and while the conversation around professional sports always seems a little undercooked--like every team here is in its expansion year--no one seems to be leaning QB. Just Anderson or Murphy.

[Moriarty]

Yeah. Now that becomes a big problem.

Because they will probably pick ahead of us. And if they are willing to trade to a QB team, then there's 2 off the board already.
Will there be a strong market for 3 straight QBs and 2 trade ups?

[Hema2.0]

The total irony of this post is that it isn't the Chicago Bears! Man, that feels so good to say.

[Z Bear]

A lot of the ones you have as a Yes will not be taking a QB in round 1, maybe a day 2 pick but definitely not round 1.

If DET makes the playoffs no way they take one early. Goff has two years left with $30M cap hits each year however only a $10M dead cap hit to move on from so it is a possibility.
AZ just paid Kyler Murray, no way the burn a 1st round pick on a QB
Derrick Carr is playing pretty good, LV will not take a round 1 QB.
Daniel Jones has turned a corner, no way the Gints take a round 1 QB.
ATL took Ridder last year and just gave him the reins, they are out in round 1 as they have no idea what they have in him yet.

Really only Houston and Carolina are locks to take a QB in round 1. Houston already has the #1 pick and will have their choice so that really only leaves Carolina, Indy, and maybe Detroit as potential teams to move up. Anyone else moving up is after Will Anderson or Jalen Carter (who the Bears to select if a trade does not materialize).

[Grizzled]

I'm not so sure about Oakland, they still might be in the market if they have a poor record this year. I think Seattle is going to re-sign Geno Smith. Definitely Carolina and Houston. Dark horse: New Orleans although they don't have a 1st this year. Goff is signed through '24 although his dead cap hit for the next 2 years isn't excessive. Detroit, though, is picking up steam and might roll with adding weapons on both sides of the ball with 2 first round picks. I can't say Jones is overwhelming this season but maybe has done enough to earn another year with the Giants. And who knows with the Jets with the Wilson draft pick looking like Josh Rosen 2.0.

[wab]

I think the Seahawks stay with Geno, for obvious reasons.

Darnold has played well, and if they win out, they win the NFC South...so they might not be in a position to move up (assuming they indeed win out). BUT...if they stay in the top 10, they'd be in play for a QB because Darnold isn't the answer and he's a FA anyway.

Carolina is the Bears best hope for a QB trade partner and to still stay in the top 10.

[Moriarty]

Carolina is the Bears best hope for a QB trade partner and to still stay in the top 10.

Carolina is definitely a top hope.
But IMO Indy also can't possibly not go QB - and they're moved ahead of Carolina this week.

[wab]

Carolina is the Bears best hope for a QB trade partner and to still stay in the top 10.

Carolina is definitely a top hope.
But IMO Indy also can't possibly not go QB - and they're moved ahead of Carolina this week.

True about the Colts but IMO the pressure to take one is higher for the Panthers and as you said, they are now behind the Colts. Colts are still stuck with Ryan for another year (unless he retires, then that changes things). Panthers need a starter right away.

But you are right, the Colts do need to take one.

[Moriarty]

Updated

Code: Select all

texans	yes	Mills, Davis 21/3
sea	no?	SMITH, GENO U/LAC
bears	---	Fields, Justin 21/1
lions	no?	Goff, Jared T/LAR
eagles	no	Hurts, Jalen 20/2
ariz	no	Murray, Kyler 19/1
colts	yes	RYAN, MATT T/Atl
raiders	??	CARR, DEREK 14/2
caro	yes?	Darnold, Sam T/NYJ
atl	yes?	Ridder, Desmond 22/3 mariota
jags	no	Lawrence, Trevor 21/1
texans	at 1	Mills, Davis 21/3
pitt	no	Pickett, Kenny 22/1
gb	no	RODGERS, AARON 05/1  / love
lions	no?	Goff, Jared T/LAR
ne	no	Jones, Mac 21/1
sea	no?	SMITH, GENO U/LAC
jets	??	White, Mike SF19 / zach wilson
tb	no?	BRADY, TOM U/NE  / trask
lac	no?	Herbert, Justin 20/1
titans	no?	TANNEHILL, RYAN T/Mia   / malik willis
wash	yes	Heinicke, Taylor SF20 / wentz
giants	??	Jones, Daniel 19/1
broncos	no?	WILSON, RUSSELL T/Sea
ravens	no	Jackson, Lamar 18/1
bengals	no	Burrow, Joe 20/1
cowboys	no	Prescott, Dak 16/4
chiefs	no	Mahomes, Patrick 17/1
vikes	no?	COUSINS, KIRK U/Was
bills	no	Allen, Josh 18/1
eagles	no	Hurts, Jalen 20/2

[Moriarty]

https://www.aol.com/nfl-team-most-aggre ... 16305.html

[IE]

I'll guess Seattle will stick with Geno, and hedge with an experienced vet (like Washington States' Garndner Minshew).

I think Russ has been exposed and it is clearing up that Carroll is the mastermind. I think they'll go with a defensive stud.

Fortunately for us, Denver is now favored against the Cardinals with Murray out.

[Grizzled]

I'm throwing the Colts and Commandos into the mix. Washington especially if they miss the playoffs. Heineke is not their long term answer. Ryan has maybe one year left, he can mentor a draft pick.

[wab]

Washington did take Sam Howell last year. He was thought of as a potential #1 overall pick at one point.

He was on IR for a while, but I think he's active now.

Them taking Howell in no way prevents them from taking a QB, but it might prevent them for giving up a ton of draft resources to move up for one. Wentz will almost certainly be cut. They'd save like 30 million with no dead money.

I could see them going into next season with Heinicke, Howell, and a rookie.

[Grizzled]

Washington did take Sam Howell last year. He was thought of as a potential #1 overall pick at one point.

He was on IR for a while, but I think he's active now.

Them taking Howell in no way prevents them from taking a QB, but it might prevent them for giving up a ton of draft resources to move up for one. Wentz will almost certainly be cut. They'd save like 30 million with no dead money.

I could see them going into next season with Heinicke, Howell, and a rookie.

With the Commandos still in the wild card chase, Howell's not going to get much experience this year. Heineke is average, WA may want to try for a franchise guy while they gave a good defense.

[Z Bear]

Only teams that desperately need a QB will be in play to move up, HOU and CAR. HOU already has the #1 pick so they do not need to move up, which leaves only CAR. You also have only 2 QBs worth moving up for, Young and Stroud, so you have to hope HOU does not take the one CAR covets. The other teams that kind of need a QB (except INDY) are really too far back for a trade down to make sense without them having to give up multiuple 1s and 2s, which won't happen unless they fall in love with one of the two and he is still there when the Bears are on the clock. The only team the really might take a QB in front of CAR is INDY, so as long as they trade in front of them they can still get their QB. That leaves CHI, SEA, DET, PHI, and AZ as the potential trade partners for the Colts to get in front of CAR.

I mention all of this because it looks to me like there is no scenario where the Bears will get multiple 1s in a trade down. SEA, DET, and PHI all have multi[ple 1sts this year and would be more likely to give a better deal to CAR in a trade down. I just think people are way off base thinking the Bears will get two 1sts and a 3rd or 4th for the #2 pick.

[Moriarty]

Only teams that desperately need a QB will be in play to move up, HOU and CAR. HOU already has the #1 pick so they do not need to move up, which leaves only CAR. You also have only 2 QBs worth moving up for, Young and Stroud, so you have to hope HOU does not take the one CAR covets. The other teams that kind of need a QB (except INDY) are really too far back for a trade down to make sense without them having to give up multiuple 1s and 2s, which won't happen unless they fall in love with one of the two and he is still there when the Bears are on the clock. The only team the really might take a QB in front of CAR is INDY, so as long as they trade in front of them they can still get their QB. That leaves CHI, SEA, DET, PHI, and AZ as the potential trade partners for the Colts to get in front of CAR.

I mention all of this because it looks to me like there is no scenario where the Bears will get multiple 1s in a trade down. SEA, DET, and PHI all have multi[ple 1sts this year and would be more likely to give a better deal to CAR in a trade down. I just think people are way off base thinking the Bears will get two 1sts and a 3rd or 4th for the #2 pick.

On teams - I think Car, Indy definitely want to go up for QB, Atl & Wash probably

On QBs - If the Bears stay at 2, you only need 2 QBs worthy of 2, which there are. If they wind up 3-7, then you can trade with anyone for Levis, who is definitely able to entice someone to jump and grab the last top tier one (just so long as a team before you doesn't pull off the trade instead).

Additional firsts - maybe not. I only see one person in the whole thread talking about multiple R1s, though. For my part, there's tons of hypothetical trades that would make me happy without including an extra R1.

[IE]

I see Indy as being the most conspicuous need. Also... let's not dismiss Atlanta. I like Desmond Ridder but they may not want to put all their chips in on him.

I think Carolina was trying to tank for a QB but the players had other ideas. Who knows what they're thinking but the players have put them in a position to have to trade up if they want a top QB. Do they want to rebuild? Their moves this season sort of implied that.

[wab]

The Panthers are a wild situation. Win out and they make the playoffs. Lose out and they pick at like 6.

[cblaz11]

Certain GMs are under a lot of pressure to fix the QB position. There really is nothing out there on the free agent market outside of Jimmy G. I’m not realistically considering Brady….Maybe someone makes a crazy move for Rogers or Love…but more this offseason then in the past, the only real option to fix the QB position this offseason is via the draft. Which bodes well for the Bears looking to trade down!

Colts- Chris Ballard is on his way out unless he finds a franchise QB. I think he does everything on his power this offseason to move up and take a top QB. I think ultimately, this will be the team the Bears trade down with.

Falcons- They have some nice pieces, but Riddler isn’t the guy

Skins- Great roster, no true franchise QB.

Lions- I think they are committed to Goff

Seattle- I think they keep Gino but also look right draft a QB to develop

Jets- I don’t see them going QB

Titans- they have to realize they are in purgatory until they get an elite talent at QB

Saints- they have to find a franchise QB

Tampa Bay- If Brady retires, they have to find a guy

Giants- I absolutely think they try to move up and grab one

In other words, there are a lot of teams that are stuck in good but not good enough. As long as the prospects continue to climb, this has the makings of a historical bidding war for the number 2 pick

[Grizzled]

Certain GMs are under a lot of pressure to fix the QB position. There really is nothing out there on the free agent market outside of Jimmy G. I’m not realistically considering Brady….Maybe someone makes a crazy move for Rogers or Love…but more this offseason then in the past, the only real option to fix the QB position this offseason is via the draft. Which bodes well for the Bears looking to trade down!

Colts- Chris Ballard is on his way out unless he finds a franchise QB. I think he does everything on his power this offseason to move up and take a top QB. I think ultimately, this will be the team the Bears trade down with.

Falcons- They have some nice pieces, but Riddler isn’t the guy

Skins- Great roster, no true franchise QB.

Lions- I think they are committed to Goff

Seattle- I think they keep Gino but also look right draft a QB to develop

Jets- I don’t see them going QB

Titans- they have to realize they are in purgatory until they get an elite talent at QB

Saints- they have to find a franchise QB

Tampa Bay- If Brady retires, they have to find a guy

Giants- I absolutely think they try to move up and grab one

In other words, there are a lot of teams that are stuck in good but not good enough. As long as the prospects continue to climb, this has the makings of a historical bidding war for the number 2 pick

Very nice analysis, C. My comments:

Colts - dead on

Falcons - they're nominally in the hunt for a playoff but wasted a season of seeing if Ridder can do the job; I don't think they're looking this year

Commandos - Heineke is okay but not top notch; they definitely need a franchise QB

Loins - they're rolling with Goff while laughing and using the Rams high draft pick to improve their D

Seattle - they're fading fast, Geno's performance has dipped. Jimmy G. seems like the type of guy Pete Carroll would desire rather than a high draft pick rookie QB

Jets - they benched Zach Wilson in the 3rd quarter last night, I think you can put a fork in him. They have really good pieces on offense and need a QB. Perhaps also a market for Jimmy G. but may look at taking another swing at a franchise QB

Titans - they took that really raw guy at QB in '22, I think they have to see if he'll pan out

Saints - no 1st round pick this year. They'd have to sell the farm (1st rounders in '24 and '25 plus numerous other picks to get the Bears to bite

Tampa Bay - I think Tom's toast. They took a 2nd round QB last year, will they try to develop him or roll the dice on another guy?

Giants - they're winning with Jones but he's more of a game manager; Daboll may want a more dynamic playmaker at QB

[cblaz11]

Lots of interesting options…I’d love for Seattle to fall in love with Stroud and pay to prevent someone else from jumping them. (Mitch trade)

We move back, get the 3rd pick along with a couple 3rd and 4th rd picks and still get Will Anderson

[Grizzled]

Lots of interesting options…I’d love for Seattle to fall in love with Stroud and pay to prevent someone else from jumping them. (Mitch trade)

We move back, get the 3rd pick along with a couple 3rd and 4th rd picks and still get Will Anderson

Jon Schneider isn't s gullible as Pace but he might go for a deal like that.

[cblaz11]

I mean, if Trubisky was Mahomes it’s a small price to pay. Trubisky being a bust makes it bad.

[Grizzled]

Vegas has announced that Derek Carr will not be playing in its final 2 games this year. It is thought that he might have played his final game for them. They are currently sitting 9th for the '23 draft. The Jets are moving on from Zach Wilson; they are sitting 17th.

[Moriarty]

Updated

Code: Select all

bears	---	Fields, Justin 21/1
texans	yes	Mills, Davis 21/3
ariz	no	Murray, Kyler 19/1
colts	yes	RYAN, MATT T/Atl
sea	no?	SMITH, GENO U/LAC
lions	no?	Goff, Jared T/LAR
raiders	yes	CARR, DEREK 14/2
atl	yes?	Ridder, Desmond 22/3 mariota
caro	yes	Darnold, Sam T/NYJ
eagles	no	Hurts, Jalen 20/2
titans	no?	TANNEHILL, RYAN T/Mia   / malik willis
texans	at 2	Mills, Davis 21/3
jets	yes	White, Mike SF19 / zach wilson
ne	no	Jones, Mac 21/1
gb	no	RODGERS, AARON 05/1  / love
wash	yes	Heinicke, Taylor SF20 / wentz
pitt	no	Pickett, Kenny 22/1
lions	no?	Goff, Jared T/LAR
tb	no?	BRADY, TOM U/NE  / trask
sea	no?	SMITH, GENO U/LAC
jags	no	Lawrence, Trevor 21/1
giants	no?	Jones, Daniel 19/1
ravens	no?	Jackson, Lamar 18/1
lac	no?	Herbert, Justin 20/1
cowboys	no	Prescott, Dak 16/4
bengals	no	Burrow, Joe 20/1
vikes	no?	COUSINS, KIRK U/Was
broncos	no?	WILSON, RUSSELL T/Sea
bills	no	Allen, Josh 18/1
chiefs	no	Mahomes, Patrick 17/1
eagles	no	Hurts, Jalen 20/2

[EricTighe]

Right now I only see two in the Texans and the Colts.

Others who might but not sure what they think are.
Raiders ( This guy took Tebow in Denver so who really knows what this genius thinks.)
Panthers (Depends on there coach)
Jets (WIlson and white anyone really sold on them)
Redskins who have been looking for a QB since Doug Williams and Mark Rypien.
Saints (who actually may end up with a first round pick for Payton)
Falcons (Depends on wether or not they liked what they saw out of Ridder)
Patriots (Rumors are Bill is pissed at Mack)
GB (Is Jordon Love the long term answer)


With these QB's available going to be interesting.

Brady ( SF seems most likely)
Carr (Saints seem like a natural fit.)
Garrapollo ( The Jets tried before the draft, supposedly)
Darnold (???) Remember he started then got benched then started again. I believe he is gone.
Jones (Depends on what the Giants really think of him) I could see the Redskins going for him if the Giants let him walk.
Baker Mayfield he maybe the only one who believes he is a starting QB.

Smith I believe will be signed to a new deal for less money. Pete Carrol has said he doesn't need a great QB to win, just a game manager. Some say SMith will be franchised. I don't think so. Not with available QB's that are going to be available. Remember he wasn't happy when they signed Russ to all that money. Darnold and Jimmy G seem like natural fits if they let Smith go.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Right now I only see two in the Texans and the Colts.

Others who might but not sure what they think are.
Raiders ( This guy took Tebow in Denver so who really knows what this genius thinks.)
Panthers (Depends on there coach)
Jets (WIlson and white anyone really sold on them)
Redskins who have been looking for a QB since Doug Williams and Mark Rypien.
Saints (who actually may end up with a first round pick for Payton)
Falcons (Depends on wether or not they liked what they saw out of Ridder)
Patriots (Rumors are Bill is pissed at Mack)
GB (Is Jordon Love the long term answer)


With these QB's available going to be interesting.

Brady ( SF seems most likely)
Carr (Saints seem like a natural fit.)
Garrapollo ( The Jets tried before the draft, supposedly)
Darnold (???) Remember he started then got benched then started again. I believe he is gone.
Jones (Depends on what the Giants really think of him) I could see the Redskins going for him if the Giants let him walk.
Baker Mayfield he maybe the only one who believes he is a starting QB.

Smith I believe will be signed to a new deal for less money. Pete Carrol has said he doesn't need a great QB to win, just a game manager. Some say SMith will be franchised. I don't think so. Not with available QB's that are going to be available. Remember he wasn't happy when they signed Russ to all that money. Darnold and Jimmy G seem like natural fits if they let Smith go.

And the Spector of Gardiner Minshew looms large

[wab]

Derek Carr is going to end up somewhere too.