2023 Draft Sims

[thunderspirit]

I like Ivan Pace Jr quite a bit, @karhu.

And both you and @Moriarty taking Tippmann warms my heart. Though to be fair I like nearly all of Mori's latest Day 3 draft.

[Middleguard]

Looking over the various trade scenarios, I wondered if trades are likely to have an appreciable impact on the Bears' cap space for post draft spending. I took a look at Overthecap's projections for signing draftees by pick number and they seemed to take rather random walks as one goes down the list, and I thought draft slots, particularly after the 1st were pretty much a formula.. Anybody know how they arrive at their estimates?

Anybody know a better way of checking the relationship between draft-value charts and rookie-pools.

[Moriarty]

Looking over the various trade scenarios, I wondered if trades are likely to have an appreciable impact on the Bears' cap space for post draft spending. I took a look at Overthecap's projections for signing draftees by pick number and they seemed to take rather random walks as one goes down the list, and I thought draft slots, particularly after the 1st were pretty much a formula.. Anybody know how they arrive at their estimates?

Anybody know a better way of checking the relationship between draft-value charts and rookie-pools.

I think if I were curious enough, I'd copy/paste the 256 draft slot numbers and trade value chart numbers (maybe rescale one relative to the other to make comparisons easier), fit a curve to each of them, plot and look at general curve steepness.

If the rookie numbers are flatter than the trade chart, then trading down will burn up more of your cap.
If the rookie numbers are steeper than the trade chart, then trading down would burn less of your cap.

(assuming the actual trade followed the chart used relatively well)

https://overthecap.com/draft
Reading this, I can't tell if the rookie numbers come from the NFL directly or from the FS chart or ....?

Looking at the chart, I think I see what you mean about the FS values by team jumping all over the place.
I think maybe the rookie numbers don't really follow what pick the teams actually have (that is to say, it doesn't reflect trades and movement with the rounds).

For example, in R2, the Bears have the highest number ($1826), but that's not actually their pick. They have the 53 pick from Baltimore. That's really unclear as you look at the righthand side, but when you look at the 3 columns, the FS value should correspond well to the Cap and/or the Pool columns. From a quick eyeball test, it looks like it does. The Cap and Pool columns reflect teams having lost or added picks, via trades.

[Middleguard]

I think if I were curious enough, I'd copy/paste the 256 draft slot numbers and trade value chart numbers (maybe rescale one relative to the other to make comparisons easier), fit a curve to each of them, plot and look at general curve steepness.

If the rookie numbers are flatter than the trade chart, then trading down will burn up more of your cap.
If the rookie numbers are steeper than the trade chart, then trading down would burn less of your cap.

(assuming the actual trade followed the chart used relatively well)

That's what I was attempting do do.

Looking at the chart, I think I see what you mean about the FS values by team jumping all over the place.
I think maybe the rookie numbers don't really follow what pick the teams actually have (that is to say, it doesn't reflect trades and movement with the rounds).

For example, in R2, the Bears have the highest number ($1826), but that's not actually their pick. They have the 53 pick from Baltimore. That's really unclear as you look at the righthand side, but when you look at the 3 columns, the FS value should correspond well to the Cap and/or the Pool columns. From a quick eyeball test, it looks like it does. The Cap and Pool columns reflect teams having lost or added picks, via trades.

I do not think the left and right charts are related. You have to hover over the right hand chart to see whose it is, not look to the left. What I'm complaining about is the difficulty in fitting a curve to the chart on the right. It's bumpier than I thought it would be and I don't understand why.

[karhu]

It's a genuinely bumpy curve, yep. Let us know if you write to OTC and hear back--my guess is that it owes something to their analysis of previous contracts, but there's nothing to explain the drop, fer example, in the value of #5's contract to #6's.

[Middleguard]

It's a genuinely bumpy curve, yep. Let us know if you write to OTC and hear back--my guess is that it owes something to their analysis of previous contracts, but there's nothing to explain the drop, fer example, in the value of #5's contract to #6's.

Reverse engineered it myself. Faster than correspondence. They based it entirely off of last year. Not a very useful method for my purposes. They probably have a hard time smoothing the bumps themselves.

They calculated the signing bonus as ~ 1.088 * last year's signing bonus.

[Z Bear]

PFN....could not pass up four 1sts and a 2nd to move up 1 spot from HOU! More realistic would be 2, 33, and one of the 1sts next year.

2. Jalen Carter DT Georgia trade icon
12. Tyree Wilson EDGE Texas Tech trade icon
33. Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma trade icon
53. Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee
64. John Michael Schmitz OC Minnesota
101. Devon Achane RB Texas A&M
132. Trey Dean III S Florida
133. SirVocea Dennis LB Pittsburgh
155. Jonathan Mingo WR Ole Miss
197. Ja'von Hicks S Cincinnati

2024 CLE 1st
2024 HOU 1st

[karhu]

It's a genuinely bumpy curve, yep. Let us know if you write to OTC and hear back--my guess is that it owes something to their analysis of previous contracts, but there's nothing to explain the drop, fer example, in the value of #5's contract to #6's.

Reverse engineered it myself. Faster than correspondence. They based it entirely off of last year. Not a very useful method for my purposes. They probably have a hard time smoothing the bumps themselves.

They calculated the signing bonus as ~ 1.088 * last year's signing bonus.

Yeah, that sounds like they had a good idea and left it half-executed. Someone with actual Python skills could probably go back and find an actual smooth curve reflecting the last five years or so. 'Tain't me, I'm afraid.

[wab]

PFN....could not pass up four 1sts and a 2nd to move up 1 spot from HOU! More realistic would be 2, 33, and one of the 1sts next year.

2. Jalen Carter DT Georgia trade icon
12. Tyree Wilson EDGE Texas Tech trade icon
33. Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma trade icon
53. Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee
64. John Michael Schmitz OC Minnesota
101. Devon Achane RB Texas A&M
132. Trey Dean III S Florida
133. SirVocea Dennis LB Pittsburgh
155. Jonathan Mingo WR Ole Miss
197. Ja'von Hicks S Cincinnati

2024 CLE 1st
2024 HOU 1st

This is why I stopped doing sims. It's just too unrealistic.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Still Poles was a bit “sim- like” on day 3 last year

[Grizzled]

PFN....could not pass up four 1sts and a 2nd to move up 1 spot from HOU! More realistic would be 2, 33, and one of the 1sts next year.

2. Jalen Carter DT Georgia trade icon
12. Tyree Wilson EDGE Texas Tech trade icon
33. Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma trade icon
53. Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee
64. John Michael Schmitz OC Minnesota
101. Devon Achane RB Texas A&M
132. Trey Dean III S Florida
133. SirVocea Dennis LB Pittsburgh
155. Jonathan Mingo WR Ole Miss
197. Ja'von Hicks S Cincinnati

2024 CLE 1st
2024 HOU 1st

LOL. Got that offer a few weeks ago. Poles would have to certifiably insane to reject that offer and Huston'sGM insane to make it.

[karhu]

What the heck; I threw a few bucks at Fanspeak. Fambase, did my best to ignore weird rankings

TRADES
1.1 to Indy for 1.4, 2.35, 2024 first
2.4, 5.23, 2024 6th to KC for 1.30
3.1 to Atlanta for 3.8, 4.8, 2024 6th
4.1 to Carolina for 4.9 and 4.29

DRAFT
R1 P4 DT Jalen Carter - Georgia
As my opinion of the DEs in this draft takes shape, Carter's started to stand proud of the herd.

R1 P30 DE Lukas Van Ness - Iowa
I think this is realistically as low as he'll go. Nicely enough, I don't think he gets past the pick we sent to Pittsburgh. So I had to trade up a little.

R2 P23 OT Darnell Wright - Tennessee
He's not supposed to be our kind of tackle...but his kind of tackle isn't supposed to play the way he does.

R3 P8 TE Luke Musgrave - Oregon State
Don't think he'll last nearly this long, but you've got to take the injury and the layoff into consideration.

R4 P8 WR Parker Washington - Penn State
Looks to be a solid complement to what passes as our core. Some Deebo vibes, too.

R4 P9 OT Wanya Morris - Oklahoma
Could be a very good swing tackle, or an even better LG. Let's try him at LG first.

R4 P29 DL Keeanu Benton - Wisconsin
It was Mazi Smith or Wright, and I went with the RT. Benton's a very nice consolation prize, though.

R4 P32 DE Ochaun Mathis - Nebraska
I'm not sure that he looks miles better than Robinson or Gipson at similar stages, but at least now we should have a compelling guy on the other side. May the best man win.

R5 P1 OL Joe Tippmann - Wisconsin
He's to the line as Chase Brown is to the RB corps: the guy who makes a ton of sense and who should go around the top of the fifth. Let's finish the line first.

R7 P1 CB Sevyn Banks - LSU
Could've taken a shot in the dark at LB, but better to add a CB and help settle things down in a secondary that will now have a real pass rush in front of it.

[wab]

I'd be perfectly happy with that draft. I do think Van Ness is going to move into the early teens after the combine though. The JJ Watt comparisons will be never ending.

[Moriarty]

What the heck; I threw a few bucks at Fanspeak. Fambase, did my best to ignore weird rankings

Did you remember to select the Buffalo Fambase board?
Only worthwhile one so far

R7 P1 CB Sevyn Banks - LSU
Could've taken a shot in the dark at LB, but better to add a CB and help settle things down in a secondary that will now have a real pass rush in front of it.

Pretty sure he went back for his 17th year or whatever it is

[wab]

Banks only had one year of eligibility left when he transferred to LSU, so he's draft eligible. But I do think he might be 30 already.

[karhu]

What the heck; I threw a few bucks at Fanspeak. Fambase, did my best to ignore weird rankings

Did you remember to select the Buffalo Fambase board?
Only worthwhile one so far

Yep; thanks for the tip, though.

R7 P1 CB Sevyn Banks - LSU
Could've taken a shot in the dark at LB, but better to add a CB and help settle things down in a secondary that will now have a real pass rush in front of it.

Pretty sure he went back for his 17th year or whatever it is

Really? Does he have tenure by now?

[karhu]

Huh. He'll be 23 when the season starts. Who'd'a thunk it?