Possible Trade Scenarios for #1

[Grizzled]

We all want to see tons of high draft picks for that #1. The simulator sites are not realistic. The trades in the link show what the Bears might reasonably expect based on differing draft trade charts. The lower the Bears are willing to go, the greater the initial haul. The article doesn't address the Bears making multiple trades down, i.e. to #2, then to #4. After that, who knows, the Raiders and Panthers might still come calling for their QB.

https://beargoggleson.com/2023/01/21/ch ... ors-first/

[Arkansasbear]

We all tons of high draft picks for that #1. The simulator sites are not realistic. The trades in the link show what the Bears might reasonably expect based on differing draft trade charts. The lower the Bears are willing to go, the greater the initial haul. The article doesn't address the Bears making multiple trades down, i.e. to #2, then to #4. After that, who knows, the Raiders and Panthers might still come calling for their QB.

https://beargoggleson.com/2023/01/21/ch ... ors-first/

I still think most of those trades are a bit lite in what we would get. I only say that because I think there will be a huge bidding by teams wanting to move up to number 1 which will drive up the price.

I also think it is possible in Houston is "all in" one QB, the Bears could give up the 1st pick and get number 2 and Houston's number 1 next year and nothing else. It's good for Houston as they still have number 12 and 33 to build around the guy. From the Bears standpoint, they get the top player they want and a decent shot at a top 5 pick next year. Maybe even the number 1 pick. I think Houston is that bad and they will have a completely new staff / system the team needs to learn.

[wab]

We all tons of high draft picks for that #1. The simulator sites are not realistic. The trades in the link show what the Bears might reasonably expect based on differing draft trade charts. The lower the Bears are willing to go, the greater the initial haul. The article doesn't address the Bears making multiple trades down, i.e. to #2, then to #4. After that, who knows, the Raiders and Panthers might still come calling for their QB.

https://beargoggleson.com/2023/01/21/ch ... ors-first/

I still think most of those trades are a bit lite in what we would get. I only say that because I think there will be a huge bidding by teams wanting to move up to number 1 which will drive up the price.

I also think it is possible in Houston is "all in" one QB, the Bears could give up the 1st pick and get number 2 and Houston's number 1 next year and nothing else. It's good for Houston as they still have number 12 and 33 to build around the guy. From the Bears standpoint, they get the top player they want and a decent shot at a top 5 pick next year. Maybe even the number 1 pick. I think Houston is that bad and they will have a completely new staff / system the team needs to learn.

Houston has two first round picks next year as well. So giving up one to move up a spot isn't that crazy of a notion. I'd want their 2nd this year too though. Give me #2, #35 and one of next years #1 picks and #1 is all yours.

Another benefit of Houston trading up one spot that doesn't really get talked about, is that they can start negotiating with whoever they want to draft essentially whenever they want.

[Grizzled]

I still think most of those trades are a bit lite in what we would get. I only say that because I think there will be a huge bidding by teams wanting to move up to number 1 which will drive up the price.

I also think it is possible in Houston is "all in" one QB, the Bears could give up the 1st pick and get number 2 and Houston's number 1 next year and nothing else. It's good for Houston as they still have number 12 and 33 to build around the guy. From the Bears standpoint, they get the top player they want and a decent shot at a top 5 pick next year. Maybe even the number 1 pick. I think Houston is that bad and they will have a completely new staff / system the team needs to learn.

Houston has two first round picks next year as well. So giving up one to move up a spot isn't that crazy of a notion. I'd want their 2nd this year too though. Give me #2, #35 and one of next years #1 picks and #1 is all yours.

Another benefit of Houston trading up one spot that doesn't really get talked about, is that they can start negotiating with whoever they want to draft essentially whenever they want.

I would be surprised if they made a trade like that but would jump all over it. The big question is are they feening for one particular QB and would do almost anything to get him. This seems to afflict a lot of teams leading up to the draft.

[Arkansasbear]

Houston has two first round picks next year as well. So giving up one to move up a spot isn't that crazy of a notion. I'd want their 2nd this year too though. Give me #2, #35 and one of next years #1 picks and #1 is all yours.

Another benefit of Houston trading up one spot that doesn't really get talked about, is that they can start negotiating with whoever they want to draft essentially whenever they want.

I would be surprised if they made a trade like that but would jump all over it. The big question is are they feening for one particular QB and would do almost anything to get him. This seems to afflict a lot of teams leading up to the draft.

The guys being listed as the top 3 QBs to me are all very different players with different skill sets that will fit into different schemes differently. (wow that used different a lot). So although a team may say they are okay with their 2nd or 3rd rated QB, they are going to strongly favor one over the other 2 and will want to target a specific guy.

[Grizzled]

I would be surprised if they made a trade like that but would jump all over it. The big question is are they feening for one particular QB and would do almost anything to get him. This seems to afflict a lot of teams leading up to the draft.

The guys being listed as the top 3 QBs to me are all very different players with different skill sets that will fit into different schemes differently. (wow that used different a lot). So although a team may say they are okay with their 2nd or 3rd rated QB, they are going to strongly favor one over the other 2 and will want to target a specific guy.

I agree teams are looking at specific guys. Indy and Carolina seem to be leaning towards Levis then Stroud. Houston towards Young. I would imagine, though, that any of the teams could pivot from their first choice. Any of them drafting a rookie QB highly will implement an offensive system to maximize his chance of success (kind of the anti-Nagy approach) and could use any of the 3.

[artbest01]

IMO, the most likely scenario remains a trade with the Colts. I think their 1st, 2nd and third and a 1st rounder next year - without any veteran players involved - will be enticing to Poles.

[wab]

IMO, the most likely scenario remains a trade with the Colts. I think their 1st, 2nd and third and a 1st rounder next year - without any veteran players involved - will be enticing to Poles.

It really does seem to be the most likely.

[IE]

IMO, the most likely scenario remains a trade with the Colts. I think their 1st, 2nd and third and a 1st rounder next year - without any veteran players involved - will be enticing to Poles.

It really does seem to be the most likely.

Agreed most likely.

But if we look at trading down to #2 as just a step in a bigger trade-down, it allows Poles to take a lesser deal maybe that we'd frown upon as a #1 -> #2 trade on it's own... and then as part of the second half of that trade-down landing somewhere in the 6-9 range and still getting what is best for the Bears.... to me that's the winning formula.

Taking maybe a '23 2nd and 3rd for the one-pick move (along with a 2 or 3 next year) and then parlaying THAT Texans pick into a lower first rounder, a first next year in addition to some 2nd and 3rd rounders, and STILL getting the guy who could fit best on your new DL (e.g. Murphy) ... to me that is something that could easily happen and would be best for the Bears.

I"m dreaming:

- Murphy (DomRob backing)
- Payne (Jones backing, plus draft pick)
- other strong FA DT (Watt backing, plus draft pick)
- Gipson or FA DE (Draft pick backing)

I really don't see that being better with Anderson in there. Trading down to Murphy gets one of those extra draft picks - maybe more than one (and certainly more high pick bodies than if the capital is focused on Anderson)!

[The Marshall Plan]

I was ecstatic with this one via PFF:

@Moriarty for reference.

Bears #1 Overall

To

Arizona
R1:3
R2:34
2024: 2 and 3
2025: 3
WR: DeAndre Hopkins

Bears #3 Overall

To

Las Vegas
R1:7
2024: 2
DE: M. Crosby

Draft:

R1:7: Myles Murphy
R2: 34: Andre Carter II (I know, Crosby, Murphy and Carter gives us 3 DEs, but I'm going where the talent is and Carter would be a nice rotational player.)
R2: 54: John Michael Schmitz

Then from here it's your assorted BPA, depth OL, special teamer type guys.

We gain an incremental 2 second rounders in 2024 and an extra 3rd in 2024 out of this.

[otis]

those trade senerios suck. i think i'd rather have the jets package than any of the others. if i'm trading with seattle its both firsts or they can suck eggs

[Grizzled]

I was ecstatic with this one via PFF:

@Moriarty for reference.

Bears #1 Overall

To

Arizona
R1:3
R2:34
2024: 2 and 3
2025: 3
WR: DeAndre Hopkins

Bears #3 Overall

To

Las Vegas
R1:7
2024: 2
DE: M. Crosby

Draft:

R1:7: Myles Murphy
R2: 34: Andre Carter II (I know, Crosby, Murphy and Carter gives us 3 DEs, but I'm going where the talent is and Carter would be a nice rotational player.)
R2: 54: John Michael Schmitz

Then from here it's your assorted BPA, depth OL, special teamer type guys.

We gain an incremental 2 second rounders in 2024 and an extra 3rd in 2024 out of this.

Except for the essential question: why would the Cards want to move into #1 when they'll snag a top defender staying at #3. Same with Vegas, if they sign a free agent vet QB, no need for them to move up. If they don't, then they're a definite potential trade partner.

[Arkansasbear]

I was ecstatic with this one via PFF:

@Moriarty for reference.

Bears #1 Overall

To

Arizona
R1:3
R2:34
2024: 2 and 3
2025: 3
WR: DeAndre Hopkins

Bears #3 Overall

To

Las Vegas
R1:7
2024: 2
DE: M. Crosby

Draft:

R1:7: Myles Murphy
R2: 34: Andre Carter II (I know, Crosby, Murphy and Carter gives us 3 DEs, but I'm going where the talent is and Carter would be a nice rotational player.)
R2: 54: John Michael Schmitz

Then from here it's your assorted BPA, depth OL, special teamer type guys.

We gain an incremental 2 second rounders in 2024 and an extra 3rd in 2024 out of this.

Except for the essential question: why would the Cards want to move into #1 when they'll snag a top defender staying at #3. Same with Vegas, if they sign a free agent vet QB, no need for them to move up. If they don't, then they're a definite potential trade partner.

I agree with you on AZ. No way they give up that much to insure they get the player they want. Teams will do that for a QB but not another spot.

Vegas??? If they miss out on fixing their QB situation in the off season, yes they might make a move. Otherwise I agree, they aren't paying that to move up to get a non-QB.

[Grizzled]

Carolina gives its 2023 1st (#9), 2 2nds (#39 and 61), 2024 1st and 3rd, 2025 2nd, and WR Laviska Shenault. It's possible that Bryan Breese, Myles Murphy/Tyree Wilson, or one of the top OTs or WRs would be available at 1:9. Would need to balance this against other possible trades such as Colts 1:4, 2:35, and 2024 1st and possibly a 2nd or 3rd.

[wab]

Why do people want Shenault? He's Aldi brand Cordarrelle Patterson.

[dplank]

Why do people want Shenault? He's Aldi brand Cordarrelle Patterson.

[thunderspirit]

Why do people want Shenault? He's Aldi brand Cordarrelle Patterson.

That...is a remarkably accurate assessment.

[Grizzled]

Agree. The Bears need proven guys. He wouldn't be the enticement in any trade, just reporting what's being proposed by others.

[Moriarty]

Why do people want Shenault? He's Aldi brand Cordarrelle Patterson.

What does that make Velus Jones?


Crack House Cordarrelle Patterson?

[thunderspirit]

Why do people want Shenault? He's Aldi brand Cordarrelle Patterson.

What does that make Velus Jones?


Crack House Cordarrelle Patterson?

Right now, Velus has work to do to make it to homeless person's CP.

Not that I'm hoping the guy flops, because his success would be good for the Bears. But nothing has changed my distaste for that draft pick in the ensuing nine months.

[Grizzled]

What does that make Velus Jones?


Crack House Cordarrelle Patterson?

Right now, Velus has work to do to make it to homeless person's CP.

Not that I'm hoping the guy flops, because his success would be good for the Bears. But nothing has changed my distaste for that draft pick in the ensuing nine months.

Can't argue with yur assessment of the pick, he didn't grow on me with his performance.

[wab]

Velus was drafted to be Deebo Lite. CP comparisons are off base.

Although he's nowhere near either of those guys at the moment.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I think Velus will turn it around

[dplank]

I think Velus will turn it around

He might and as a 3rd round pick he will certainly get his chance. But I really worry when I see a player come in with ball security issues like that - between the drops, fumbles, and muffed punts he just doesn't look natural at all and that's really hard to grow out of. His legs are an asset tho so he'll get a shot to see if he can be better. I tend to not trust players who show early that they don't appear to be naturally adept at basic things like catching and holding on to the football.

I see Josh Bellamy hands but with far better legs.

[wab]

I think Velus will turn it around

He might and as a 3rd round pick he will certainly get his chance. But I really worry when I see a player come in with ball security issues like that - between the drops, fumbles, and muffed punts he just doesn't look natural at all and that's really hard to grow out of. His legs are an asset tho so he'll get a shot to see if he can be better. I tend to not trust players who show early that they don't appear to be naturally adept at basic things like catching and holding on to the football.

I see Josh Bellamy hands but with far better legs.

The issue with Bellamy was that he didn't have a "feel" for how to catch the ball. He always seemed to fight the catch. It just wasn't natural. It's as if he should have been a safety instead of a WR.

I think the problem with Velus is more of a hand/eye coordination issue, which can be fixed. IMO it is also a function of his inexperience with an NFL route tree and NFL play calling. Tennessee historically doesn't require their receivers to learn a lot on offense. It's run fast catch ball, repeat.

There's also a ton of productive WRs in the NFL that came into the league with similar issues.

Will he fix them? Hard to say, but he rebounded nicely towards the end of the season. I'm hoping to see him improve next year.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

He did indeed improve towards the end of the season wab. I think his confidence was impaired by his difficult start. He seemed to be getting it back to me

[RichH55]

I think Velus will turn it around

He might and as a 3rd round pick he will certainly get his chance. But I really worry when I see a player come in with ball security issues like that - between the drops, fumbles, and muffed punts he just doesn't look natural at all and that's really hard to grow out of. His legs are an asset tho so he'll get a shot to see if he can be better. I tend to not trust players who show early that they don't appear to be naturally adept at basic things like catching and holding on to the football.

I see Josh Bellamy hands but with far better legs.

I very much doubt ball security will be a big problem for Velus - struck me as more a fluky thing than anything

He still has a lot to prove generally though as to the WR position

[IE]

I was really down on Velus by mid-season after having been really excited by the pick. I think Velus was a major disappointment for Poles, who I believe thought he would be plug & play for an offense that needed weapons.

I think Velus sells himself as having a lot of confidence but he really doesn't. I don't think he has hand/eye issues or anything like that, as much as he is just plain is in his own head. Accordingly I think they found they had to limit him to assignments without a lot of thinking or he couldn't be trusted to not blow it. NOT because he's not bright - but because he thinks too much. Him dropping the dime JF1 dropped on him was not bad hands any more than Christian Watson's was at the beginning. Both players psyched themselves out. Watson clearly got beyond it. I think Velus did get beyond it as well.

I think he showed he's good for at least one explosive play a game - and that is a good thing to have in a complementary player.

[wulfy]

I think the problem with Velus is more of a hand/eye coordination issue, which can be fixed. IMO it is also a function of his inexperience with an NFL route tree and NFL play calling. Tennessee historically doesn't require their receivers to learn a lot on offense. It's run fast catch ball, repeat.

There's also a ton of productive WRs in the NFL that came into the league with similar issues.

Velus Jones is interesting as he started off at Southern Cal for his first 3 years which produced some really NFL-ready WRs under Clay Helton:
Drake London
Amon-Ra St Brown
Michael Pittman
JuJu Smith-Shuster

That said, he really made his name as kick returner and I think ultimately that's where he make his mark with the Bears. Jones has been really slowing in learning the system and adapting his receiving game to the NFL. The talent and natural gifts are there - but something just doesn't connect.

[BigDaddy]

I think the problem with Velus is more of a hand/eye coordination issue, which can be fixed. IMO it is also a function of his inexperience with an NFL route tree and NFL play calling. Tennessee historically doesn't require their receivers to learn a lot on offense. It's run fast catch ball, repeat.

There's also a ton of productive WRs in the NFL that came into the league with similar issues.

Velus Jones is interesting as he started off at Southern Cal for his first 3 years which produced some really NFL-ready WRs under Clay Helton:
Drake London
Amon-Ra St Brown
Michael Pittman
JuJu Smith-Shuster

That said, he really made his name as kick returner and I think ultimately that's where he make his mark with the Bears. Jones has been really slowing in learning the system and adapting his receiving game to the NFL. The talent and natural gifts are there - but something just doesn't connect.

Yep, remember when Hester demanded he get some reps as WR. Great return man but dumb as a stump. Not a WR, may be the same with Velus..