Possible Trade Scenarios for #1

[artbest01]

IMO, the most likely scenario remains a trade with the Colts. I think their 1st, 2nd and third and a 1st rounder next year - without any veteran players involved - will be enticing to Poles.

[wab]

IMO, the most likely scenario remains a trade with the Colts. I think their 1st, 2nd and third and a 1st rounder next year - without any veteran players involved - will be enticing to Poles.

It really does seem to be the most likely.

[IE]

IMO, the most likely scenario remains a trade with the Colts. I think their 1st, 2nd and third and a 1st rounder next year - without any veteran players involved - will be enticing to Poles.

It really does seem to be the most likely.

Agreed most likely.

But if we look at trading down to #2 as just a step in a bigger trade-down, it allows Poles to take a lesser deal maybe that we'd frown upon as a #1 -> #2 trade on it's own... and then as part of the second half of that trade-down landing somewhere in the 6-9 range and still getting what is best for the Bears.... to me that's the winning formula.

Taking maybe a '23 2nd and 3rd for the one-pick move (along with a 2 or 3 next year) and then parlaying THAT Texans pick into a lower first rounder, a first next year in addition to some 2nd and 3rd rounders, and STILL getting the guy who could fit best on your new DL (e.g. Murphy) ... to me that is something that could easily happen and would be best for the Bears.

I"m dreaming:

- Murphy (DomRob backing)
- Payne (Jones backing, plus draft pick)
- other strong FA DT (Watt backing, plus draft pick)
- Gipson or FA DE (Draft pick backing)

I really don't see that being better with Anderson in there. Trading down to Murphy gets one of those extra draft picks - maybe more than one (and certainly more high pick bodies than if the capital is focused on Anderson)!

[bbaker]

I guess I'm an animal.

Here is my dream scenario:
The entire thing is dependent on Poles owning FA and getting Justin Fields a LEGIT O-Line and ideally another legit WR.

If Poles can use Free Agency to put together a seriously good O-Line (I would even front-load these contracts) and use the massive cap space for a short-term turn-around on offense, combined with one serious WR addition, We will be ready to truly let JF1 grow into the QB he should be, a primarily pocket-passing QB who can also kill you with his legs if necessary, or if defenses over-commit to stopping the pass. I'm going all-in on building Fields and the offense into a monster THIS year. I would probably only sign 2nd and 3rd tier defensive players, and rely on the draft to begin building that side up.

That's not going to make us a contender in 2023 (no approach will truly do that), but it WILL either give us an elite offense or show that Justin is NOT the guy (which I doubt).

Next, I trade down multiple times, picking up numerous day 2 picks in 2023 and MULTIPLE firsts in 2024 *and beyond*. With shrewd trading to bad teams (like the Texans), you may even luck into more top-3 picks next year.

With the boatload of day 2 picks in 2023, you build lots of quality depth/solid talent and hopefully luck into a few studs on various parts of your roster.

I think with an elite offense, and an improved defense (due to some nice 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks) the 2023 Bears are a mediocre team in terms of wins & losses, and maybe squeak into the playoffs, but they have a SOLID base and good depth for the future, and either an established franchise QB... OR... JF1 doesn't cut it, which means the record is really bad again, netting us another VERY high pick in 2024 to go along with the stockpile of HIGH picks, and we draft his replacement at #1 overall next year.

Either way, we've built an elite offense, or an offense that is a QB away from being elite.

in 2024, we can take the HIGH draft capital we have to pick some serious studs on defense, along with some trade-downs which continue to add extra 1st round picks in the future. As the team moves forward over the next few years, you can keep adding future draft capital or jumping on the chance to grab elite prospects regardless of "needs". As your ascending baby-Bears turn into studs and all require contract extensions simultaneously, you trade the guys you can't afford for draft capital, keep on reloading.

In my plan, we could be serious contenders in 2024 and beyond, and have a young roster that is built through the draft, but using short-term FA splurging to fill the void in talent for 2023-24, along with giving your young QB the protection and weapons necessary to develop.

[Arkansasbear]

I guess I'm an animal.

Here is my dream scenario:
The entire thing is dependent on Poles owning FA and getting Justin Fields a LEGIT O-Line and ideally another legit WR.

If Poles can use Free Agency to put together a seriously good O-Line (I would even front-load these contracts) and use the massive cap space for a short-term turn-around on offense, combined with one serious WR addition, We will be ready to truly let JF1 grow into the QB he should be, a primarily pocket-passing QB who can also kill you with his legs if necessary, or if defenses over-commit to stopping the pass. I'm going all-in on building Fields and the offense into a monster THIS year. I would probably only sign 2nd and 3rd tier defensive players, and rely on the draft to begin building that side up.

That's not going to make us a contender in 2023 (no approach will truly do that), but it WILL either give us an elite offense or show that Justin is NOT the guy (which I doubt).

Next, I trade down multiple times, picking up numerous day 2 picks in 2023 and MULTIPLE firsts in 2024 *and beyond*. With shrewd trading to bad teams (like the Texans), you may even luck into more top-3 picks next year.

With the boatload of day 2 picks in 2023, you build lots of quality depth/solid talent and hopefully luck into a few studs on various parts of your roster.

I think with an elite offense, and an improved defense (due to some nice 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks) the 2023 Bears are a mediocre team in terms of wins & losses, and maybe squeak into the playoffs, but they have a SOLID base and good depth for the future, and either an established franchise QB... OR... JF1 doesn't cut it, which means the record is really bad again, netting us another VERY high pick in 2024 to go along with the stockpile of HIGH picks, and we draft his replacement at #1 overall next year.

Either way, we've built an elite offense, or an offense that is a QB away from being elite.

in 2024, we can take the HIGH draft capital we have to pick some serious studs on defense, along with some trade-downs which continue to add extra 1st round picks in the future. As the team moves forward over the next few years, you can keep adding future draft capital or jumping on the chance to grab elite prospects regardless of "needs". As your ascending baby-Bears turn into studs and all require contract extensions simultaneously, you trade the guys you can't afford for draft capital, keep on reloading.

In my plan, we could be serious contenders in 2024 and beyond, and have a young roster that is built through the draft, but using short-term FA splurging to fill the void in talent for 2023-24, along with giving your young QB the protection and weapons necessary to develop.

Love the idea of getting picks in '24 and '25. Someone a while back brought up the idea of trading a second round pick for a first the following year. If you could get to do that on a consistent basis, THAT would be amazing.

[Heinz D.]

The wildcard is AZ. Assuming the Bears trade back to 4...

Imagine if Levis and Stroud go 1/2 and Bryce Young is there at 3...you'd have to imagine teams like Carolina (who started a 5'10 QB for a good part of the season) would be interested in moving up.

Then you have to make a real choice. Do you take Anderson or move back with a team like Atlanta who would want Anderson. Or do you try and entice the Eagles to move up for Anderson and get their two 1st rounders?

Yeah...I've been assuming Arizona's gonna stay at three and take Anderson or Carter. I mean, they're only one year removed from being a playoff team, they'll probably be happier making a "splash" pick.

But you definitely still have a point. You never know...

[RichH55]

Assuming every trade back is for value - I am an animal

[The Marshall Plan]

I was ecstatic with this one via PFF:

@Moriarty for reference.

Bears #1 Overall

To

Arizona
R1:3
R2:34
2024: 2 and 3
2025: 3
WR: DeAndre Hopkins

Bears #3 Overall

To

Las Vegas
R1:7
2024: 2
DE: M. Crosby

Draft:

R1:7: Myles Murphy
R2: 34: Andre Carter II (I know, Crosby, Murphy and Carter gives us 3 DEs, but I'm going where the talent is and Carter would be a nice rotational player.)
R2: 54: John Michael Schmitz

Then from here it's your assorted BPA, depth OL, special teamer type guys.

We gain an incremental 2 second rounders in 2024 and an extra 3rd in 2024 out of this.

[otis]

i say ten is the farthest back i'd go. there are a lot of good guys that can help us and at ten we would get oline or dline. alot of my mocks i traded right out of the first and ended up with 5-6 first picks next year so i guess it depends on whats being offered. but i feel good at ten, with a couple extra firsts and seconds under my belt of course.

[otis]

those trade senerios suck. i think i'd rather have the jets package than any of the others. if i'm trading with seattle its both firsts or they can suck eggs

[Sugashane]

I picked 4 with IND because I am guessing that will be the best overall value. I am pretty much all in on Anderson and Carter, and actually think AZ might try to draft Carter over Anderson to replace the hole left by JJ's retirement. I could be moved down with while one of them is on the board, but I am skeptical I would get the compensation to make it worth my while.

Bears have Fields as the offensive cog, Jenkins is the closest they have to Long or Kreutz to build an identity on the OL, and defense has really nothing to hang their hat on. EJax played well but he isn't Ed Reed, or Brian Dawkins, or Sean Taylor. Sanborn looks solid but he isn't someone (at least yet, I won't project him up or down yet) the OC is scheming about. Johnson is a good cover corner who doesn't cause turnovers. And OCs are more scared of their OL getting cramps than they are of the Bears' DL right now.

The Bears lack an identity, and they lack impact players to build around on defense. I'm a firm believer you need one stud at each level of the defense. EJax and Johnson can count together for the DBs, Sanborn MAY become that guy but that is a big projection, and there is nothing on the DL that is above rotational ATM. Anderson and Carter are the two that I feel like CHI can plug and play and they will be the foundation of the defense for 10 years. That is a hell of a lot harder to move on from for me than getting two swings at lesser prospects. I'm a fan of Wilson, Murphy, and Bresee but they are just a clear tier below the other two for me.

Just over the last 10 years the Bears have found themselves one pick behind Josh Allen, Myles Garrett, Conklin, Leonard Williams, Aaron Donald, and Melvin Ingram (by far the weakest of the group but WAY better than McClellin). Bears need to stop being one pick away and being 1.1 in the draft puts them in the perfect spot. Poles just has to make sure he doesn't screw it up.

[wab]

I picked 4 with IND because I am guessing that will be the best overall value. I am pretty much all in on Anderson and Carter, and actually think AZ might try to draft Carter over Anderson to replace the hole left by JJ's retirement. I could be moved down with while one of them is on the board, but I am skeptical I would get the compensation to make it worth my while.

Bears have Fields as the offensive cog, Jenkins is the closest they have to Long or Kreutz to build an identity on the OL, and defense has really nothing to hang their hat on. EJax played well but he isn't Ed Reed, or Brian Dawkins, or Sean Taylor. Sanborn looks solid but he isn't someone (at least yet, I won't project him up or down yet) the OC is scheming about. Johnson is a good cover corner who doesn't cause turnovers. And OCs are more scared of their OL getting cramps than they are of the Bears' DL right now.

The Bears lack an identity, and they lack impact players to build around on defense. I'm a firm believer you need one stud at each level of the defense. EJax and Johnson can count together for the DBs, Sanborn MAY become that guy but that is a big projection, and there is nothing on the DL that is above rotational ATM. Anderson and Carter are the two that I feel like CHI can plug and play and they will be the foundation of the defense for 10 years. That is a hell of a lot harder to move on from for me than getting two swings at lesser prospects. I'm a fan of Wilson, Murphy, and Bresee but they are just a clear tier below the other two for me.

Just over the last 10 years the Bears have found themselves one pick behind Josh Allen, Myles Garrett, Conklin, Leonard Williams, Aaron Donald, and Melvin Ingram (by far the weakest of the group but WAY better than McClellin). Bears need to stop being one pick away and being 1.1 in the draft puts them in the perfect spot. Poles just has to make sure he doesn't screw it up.

The way the AZ defensive roster is constructed is really weird. They have pass rushers...Zaven Collins, Markus Golden, Victor Dimukeje, Cam Thomas, and Myjai Sanders have all been drafted to get after the QB.

The only defensive tackle types they have going into 2023 are Rashard Lawrence and Leki Fatu. Zach Allen is a pending FA (who would be a great candidate for 3T).

So Carter is definitely in play for them unless it's addressed in FA. It also depends on what type of defense they end up running.

[Grizzled]

I was ecstatic with this one via PFF:

@Moriarty for reference.

Bears #1 Overall

To

Arizona
R1:3
R2:34
2024: 2 and 3
2025: 3
WR: DeAndre Hopkins

Bears #3 Overall

To

Las Vegas
R1:7
2024: 2
DE: M. Crosby

Draft:

R1:7: Myles Murphy
R2: 34: Andre Carter II (I know, Crosby, Murphy and Carter gives us 3 DEs, but I'm going where the talent is and Carter would be a nice rotational player.)
R2: 54: John Michael Schmitz

Then from here it's your assorted BPA, depth OL, special teamer type guys.

We gain an incremental 2 second rounders in 2024 and an extra 3rd in 2024 out of this.

Except for the essential question: why would the Cards want to move into #1 when they'll snag a top defender staying at #3. Same with Vegas, if they sign a free agent vet QB, no need for them to move up. If they don't, then they're a definite potential trade partner.

[Arkansasbear]

I was ecstatic with this one via PFF:

@Moriarty for reference.

Bears #1 Overall

To

Arizona
R1:3
R2:34
2024: 2 and 3
2025: 3
WR: DeAndre Hopkins

Bears #3 Overall

To

Las Vegas
R1:7
2024: 2
DE: M. Crosby

Draft:

R1:7: Myles Murphy
R2: 34: Andre Carter II (I know, Crosby, Murphy and Carter gives us 3 DEs, but I'm going where the talent is and Carter would be a nice rotational player.)
R2: 54: John Michael Schmitz

Then from here it's your assorted BPA, depth OL, special teamer type guys.

We gain an incremental 2 second rounders in 2024 and an extra 3rd in 2024 out of this.

Except for the essential question: why would the Cards want to move into #1 when they'll snag a top defender staying at #3. Same with Vegas, if they sign a free agent vet QB, no need for them to move up. If they don't, then they're a definite potential trade partner.

I agree with you on AZ. No way they give up that much to insure they get the player they want. Teams will do that for a QB but not another spot.

Vegas??? If they miss out on fixing their QB situation in the off season, yes they might make a move. Otherwise I agree, they aren't paying that to move up to get a non-QB.

[Sugashane]

I picked 4 with IND because I am guessing that will be the best overall value. I am pretty much all in on Anderson and Carter, and actually think AZ might try to draft Carter over Anderson to replace the hole left by JJ's retirement. I could be moved down with while one of them is on the board, but I am skeptical I would get the compensation to make it worth my while.

Bears have Fields as the offensive cog, Jenkins is the closest they have to Long or Kreutz to build an identity on the OL, and defense has really nothing to hang their hat on. EJax played well but he isn't Ed Reed, or Brian Dawkins, or Sean Taylor. Sanborn looks solid but he isn't someone (at least yet, I won't project him up or down yet) the OC is scheming about. Johnson is a good cover corner who doesn't cause turnovers. And OCs are more scared of their OL getting cramps than they are of the Bears' DL right now.

The Bears lack an identity, and they lack impact players to build around on defense. I'm a firm believer you need one stud at each level of the defense. EJax and Johnson can count together for the DBs, Sanborn MAY become that guy but that is a big projection, and there is nothing on the DL that is above rotational ATM. Anderson and Carter are the two that I feel like CHI can plug and play and they will be the foundation of the defense for 10 years. That is a hell of a lot harder to move on from for me than getting two swings at lesser prospects. I'm a fan of Wilson, Murphy, and Bresee but they are just a clear tier below the other two for me.

Just over the last 10 years the Bears have found themselves one pick behind Josh Allen, Myles Garrett, Conklin, Leonard Williams, Aaron Donald, and Melvin Ingram (by far the weakest of the group but WAY better than McClellin). Bears need to stop being one pick away and being 1.1 in the draft puts them in the perfect spot. Poles just has to make sure he doesn't screw it up.

The way the AZ defensive roster is constructed is really weird. They have pass rushers...Zaven Collins, Markus Golden, Victor Dimukeje, Cam Thomas, and Myjai Sanders have all been drafted to get after the QB.

The only defensive tackle types they have going into 2023 are Rashard Lawrence and Leki Fatu. Zach Allen is a pending FA (who would be a great candidate for 3T).

So Carter is definitely in play for them unless it's addressed in FA. It also depends on what type of defense they end up running.

Absolutely. I'm a big fan of signing Allen. I think he could be the big base end or 3T, even could do the Izzy role. I think if you get him, a regular DE, and a NT you can draft the best guy and Allen can fill in the blank really well.

[RichH55]

They are also going to want multiple DL generally - the ideal is I think 9-10? In a rotation for what the Coaching Staff wants to do

[karhu]

The way the AZ defensive roster is constructed is really weird. They have pass rushers...Zaven Collins, Markus Golden, Victor Dimukeje, Cam Thomas, and Myjai Sanders have all been drafted to get after the QB.

The only defensive tackle types they have going into 2023 are Rashard Lawrence and Leki Fatu. Zach Allen is a pending FA (who would be a great candidate for 3T).

So Carter is definitely in play for them unless it's addressed in FA. It also depends on what type of defense they end up running.

Wow--I hadn't looked closely at what Keim did there, but that's bizarre. Add the fact that their new GM comes from a team that's absolutely loaded at DT, and Carter makes even more sense.

[karhu]

Absolutely. I'm a big fan of signing Allen. I think he could be the big base end or 3T, even could do the Izzy role. I think if you get him, a regular DE, and a NT you can draft the best guy and Allen can fill in the blank really well.

You mentioned Allen in another thread, right? I hadn't realized that he was a FA this year; thanks for that. Anderson + Allen seems like an awfully good way to kick off the rebuild, especially if we get Anderson at #4.

[Grizzled]

Carolina gives its 2023 1st (#9), 2 2nds (#39 and 61), 2024 1st and 3rd, 2025 2nd, and WR Laviska Shenault. It's possible that Bryan Breese, Myles Murphy/Tyree Wilson, or one of the top OTs or WRs would be available at 1:9. Would need to balance this against other possible trades such as Colts 1:4, 2:35, and 2024 1st and possibly a 2nd or 3rd.

[wab]

Why do people want Shenault? He's Aldi brand Cordarrelle Patterson.

[dplank]

Why do people want Shenault? He's Aldi brand Cordarrelle Patterson.

[thunderspirit]

Why do people want Shenault? He's Aldi brand Cordarrelle Patterson.

That...is a remarkably accurate assessment.

[Grizzled]

Agree. The Bears need proven guys. He wouldn't be the enticement in any trade, just reporting what's being proposed by others.

[Moriarty]

Why do people want Shenault? He's Aldi brand Cordarrelle Patterson.

What does that make Velus Jones?


Crack House Cordarrelle Patterson?

[thunderspirit]

Why do people want Shenault? He's Aldi brand Cordarrelle Patterson.

What does that make Velus Jones?


Crack House Cordarrelle Patterson?

Right now, Velus has work to do to make it to homeless person's CP.

Not that I'm hoping the guy flops, because his success would be good for the Bears. But nothing has changed my distaste for that draft pick in the ensuing nine months.

[Grizzled]

What does that make Velus Jones?


Crack House Cordarrelle Patterson?

Right now, Velus has work to do to make it to homeless person's CP.

Not that I'm hoping the guy flops, because his success would be good for the Bears. But nothing has changed my distaste for that draft pick in the ensuing nine months.

Can't argue with yur assessment of the pick, he didn't grow on me with his performance.

[wab]

Velus was drafted to be Deebo Lite. CP comparisons are off base.

Although he's nowhere near either of those guys at the moment.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I think Velus will turn it around

[dplank]

I think Velus will turn it around

He might and as a 3rd round pick he will certainly get his chance. But I really worry when I see a player come in with ball security issues like that - between the drops, fumbles, and muffed punts he just doesn't look natural at all and that's really hard to grow out of. His legs are an asset tho so he'll get a shot to see if he can be better. I tend to not trust players who show early that they don't appear to be naturally adept at basic things like catching and holding on to the football.

I see Josh Bellamy hands but with far better legs.

[wab]

I think Velus will turn it around

He might and as a 3rd round pick he will certainly get his chance. But I really worry when I see a player come in with ball security issues like that - between the drops, fumbles, and muffed punts he just doesn't look natural at all and that's really hard to grow out of. His legs are an asset tho so he'll get a shot to see if he can be better. I tend to not trust players who show early that they don't appear to be naturally adept at basic things like catching and holding on to the football.

I see Josh Bellamy hands but with far better legs.

The issue with Bellamy was that he didn't have a "feel" for how to catch the ball. He always seemed to fight the catch. It just wasn't natural. It's as if he should have been a safety instead of a WR.

I think the problem with Velus is more of a hand/eye coordination issue, which can be fixed. IMO it is also a function of his inexperience with an NFL route tree and NFL play calling. Tennessee historically doesn't require their receivers to learn a lot on offense. It's run fast catch ball, repeat.

There's also a ton of productive WRs in the NFL that came into the league with similar issues.

Will he fix them? Hard to say, but he rebounded nicely towards the end of the season. I'm hoping to see him improve next year.