Possible Trade Scenarios for #1

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

He did indeed improve towards the end of the season wab. I think his confidence was impaired by his difficult start. He seemed to be getting it back to me

[RichH55]

I think Velus will turn it around

He might and as a 3rd round pick he will certainly get his chance. But I really worry when I see a player come in with ball security issues like that - between the drops, fumbles, and muffed punts he just doesn't look natural at all and that's really hard to grow out of. His legs are an asset tho so he'll get a shot to see if he can be better. I tend to not trust players who show early that they don't appear to be naturally adept at basic things like catching and holding on to the football.

I see Josh Bellamy hands but with far better legs.

I very much doubt ball security will be a big problem for Velus - struck me as more a fluky thing than anything

He still has a lot to prove generally though as to the WR position

[IE]

I was really down on Velus by mid-season after having been really excited by the pick. I think Velus was a major disappointment for Poles, who I believe thought he would be plug & play for an offense that needed weapons.

I think Velus sells himself as having a lot of confidence but he really doesn't. I don't think he has hand/eye issues or anything like that, as much as he is just plain is in his own head. Accordingly I think they found they had to limit him to assignments without a lot of thinking or he couldn't be trusted to not blow it. NOT because he's not bright - but because he thinks too much. Him dropping the dime JF1 dropped on him was not bad hands any more than Christian Watson's was at the beginning. Both players psyched themselves out. Watson clearly got beyond it. I think Velus did get beyond it as well.

I think he showed he's good for at least one explosive play a game - and that is a good thing to have in a complementary player.

[wulfy]

I think the problem with Velus is more of a hand/eye coordination issue, which can be fixed. IMO it is also a function of his inexperience with an NFL route tree and NFL play calling. Tennessee historically doesn't require their receivers to learn a lot on offense. It's run fast catch ball, repeat.

There's also a ton of productive WRs in the NFL that came into the league with similar issues.

Velus Jones is interesting as he started off at Southern Cal for his first 3 years which produced some really NFL-ready WRs under Clay Helton:
Drake London
Amon-Ra St Brown
Michael Pittman
JuJu Smith-Shuster

That said, he really made his name as kick returner and I think ultimately that's where he make his mark with the Bears. Jones has been really slowing in learning the system and adapting his receiving game to the NFL. The talent and natural gifts are there - but something just doesn't connect.

[BigDaddy]

I think the problem with Velus is more of a hand/eye coordination issue, which can be fixed. IMO it is also a function of his inexperience with an NFL route tree and NFL play calling. Tennessee historically doesn't require their receivers to learn a lot on offense. It's run fast catch ball, repeat.

There's also a ton of productive WRs in the NFL that came into the league with similar issues.

Velus Jones is interesting as he started off at Southern Cal for his first 3 years which produced some really NFL-ready WRs under Clay Helton:
Drake London
Amon-Ra St Brown
Michael Pittman
JuJu Smith-Shuster

That said, he really made his name as kick returner and I think ultimately that's where he make his mark with the Bears. Jones has been really slowing in learning the system and adapting his receiving game to the NFL. The talent and natural gifts are there - but something just doesn't connect.

Yep, remember when Hester demanded he get some reps as WR. Great return man but dumb as a stump. Not a WR, may be the same with Velus..

[wab]

Velus Jones is interesting as he started off at Southern Cal for his first 3 years which produced some really NFL-ready WRs under Clay Helton:
Drake London
Amon-Ra St Brown
Michael Pittman
JuJu Smith-Shuster

That said, he really made his name as kick returner and I think ultimately that's where he make his mark with the Bears. Jones has been really slowing in learning the system and adapting his receiving game to the NFL. The talent and natural gifts are there - but something just doesn't connect.

Yep, remember when Hester demanded he get some reps as WR. Great return man but dumb as a stump. Not a WR, may be the same with Velus..

No but I remember him wanting them to play him at CB.

[dplank]

Hester was WR1 for one of our teams IIRC, it wasn’t a great year. He came out as a CB but we moved him to WR, I don’t think he ever got time on defense.

[Rusty Trombagent]

Yep, remember when Hester demanded he get some reps as WR. Great return man but dumb as a stump. Not a WR, may be the same with Velus..

No but I remember him wanting them to play him at CB.

Yeah what the heck. He wanted to play CB like his mentor/hero Deion. Our brain trust convinced him to move over to WR.

I fucking hate the "Devin was dumb" discourse as well. If intelligence had any direct correlation to playing football the Ivies would be QB factories and Ben Roethlisberger would have never been drafted.

[Arkansasbear]

Chris Trapasso at CBS sports has us trading with the Raiders.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... er-d-line/

For the first pick in the draft we get the Raiders:

2023 -first, second, third and fourth round picks,
2024 - first and third round picks, and
2025 - first and fourth round picks.

I think that's a good return (not great)

His problem is then has us drafting Trenton Simpson LB Clemson. No way is he going to be the pick.Skorinski, Addison, Paris Johnson, Bresee among others would be taken way before him. Right or wrong Flus and Poles don't value LBs that much. I think they'd take Porter CB Penn St. before they took a LB.

[wab]

No but I remember him wanting them to play him at CB.

Yeah what the heck. He wanted to play CB like his mentor/hero Deion. Our brain trust convinced him to move over to WR.

I fucking hate the "Devin was dumb" discourse as well. If intelligence had any direct correlation to playing football the Ivies would be QB factories and Ben Roethlisberger would have never been drafted.

Agreed. And not to derail the thread, but Hester NEVER wanted to play WR. He even said it. He always said that he was a CB in his heart, but he would do whatever he needed to do for the team.

It was Lovie that forced that issue because he had to justify the massive (at the time) contract that they were going to have to give a KR. Hester was scoring points so they forced him into a role that he was never really comfortable with.

[wab]

Chris Trapasso at CBS sports has us trading with the Raiders.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... er-d-line/

For the first pick in the draft we get the Raiders:

2023 -first, second, third and fourth round picks,
2024 - first and third round picks, and
2025 - first and fourth round picks.

I think that's a good return (not great)

His problem is then has us drafting Trenton Simpson LB Clemson. No way is he going to be the pick.Skorinski, Addison, Paris Johnson, Bresee among others would be taken way before him. Right or wrong Flus and Poles don't value LBs that much. I think they'd take Porter CB Penn St. before they took a LB.

1 - I think that's better than a great return.
2 - Simpson wouldn't be a bad pick at all depending on how FA goes.

[Arkansasbear]

Chris Trapasso at CBS sports has us trading with the Raiders.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... er-d-line/

For the first pick in the draft we get the Raiders:

2023 -first, second, third and fourth round picks,
2024 - first and third round picks, and
2025 - first and fourth round picks.

I think that's a good return (not great)

His problem is then has us drafting Trenton Simpson LB Clemson. No way is he going to be the pick.Skorinski, Addison, Paris Johnson, Bresee among others would be taken way before him. Right or wrong Flus and Poles don't value LBs that much. I think they'd take Porter CB Penn St. before they took a LB.

1 - I think that's better than a great return.
2 - Simpson wouldn't be a bad pick at all depending on how FA goes.

The only thing I worry about on the return is I think the Raiders are a much better team than their record shows. So I think the first round picks we get would have a good chance of being in the 20s. I think teams like Houston, Colts, Carolina and just BAD. There is, IMO, a decent chance that first round picks from them would be top 5/10. Heck, if we could convince Houston to make a trade and that they should send up next years 1st and keep all this years picks to build around their new QB, that could be the first pick next year.

[wab]

As long as Josh McDaniels is the Raiders coach, I'll take all the first round picks they want to trade.

[Arkansasbear]

As long as Josh McDaniels is the Raiders coach, I'll take all the first round picks they want to trade.

That is an EXCELLENT counter point.

But I also think there is a chance (30%??) McDaniels gets Brady to come to Vegas.

[wab]

As long as Josh McDaniels is the Raiders coach, I'll take all the first round picks they want to trade.

That is an EXCELLENT counter point.

But I also think there is a chance (30%??) McDaniels gets Brady to come to Vegas.

Maybe, but I think he's staying in Tampa for another year (or Miami). The Bucs fired a bunch of assistants that Arians wanted them to keep in order to placate Brady. Jimmy G feels like the move for the Raiders, but McDaniels is a squirrelly dude...he thought he could do something with Tebow, so imagine what he thinks he could do with Stroud or Young.

[o-pus #40 in B major]

As long as Josh McDaniels is the Raiders coach, I'll take all the first round picks they want to trade.

You took the words right out of my mouth.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

I fucking hate the "Devin was dumb" discourse as well. If intelligence had any direct correlation to playing football the Ivies would be QB factories and Ben Roethlisberger would have never been drafted.

He wasn't the brightest bulb in the drawer, and your logic is flawed. Your counter-argument assumes that the only characteristic for a successful career in the NFL is intelligence. It's a combination of talent, athleticism, determination, and intelligence. Devin was exceptional in three of them, and practically devoid in the fourth. Being a KR he didn't have to read pre-snap cues, he didn't have to read defenses and change his route, he just had to catch the ball and let the first three take over.

[crueltyabc]

I think Carolina has the most promise of any of the teams with potential to trade with the Bears, so I give their future picks the least value. If CAR had a QB and/or coach who wasn't dogshit they would have been decent. They have young stars all over the roster and the defense is legit.

[Arkansasbear]

I think Carolina has the most promise of any of the teams with potential to trade with the Bears, so I give their future picks the least value. If CAR had a QB and/or coach who wasn't dogshit they would have been decent. They have young stars all over the roster and the defense is legit.

They hired Riech.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I’d like the Bears to trade for players and picks.

I’d like to see 2 first round trade downs:

Bears get #4 #35 and Deforest Buckner, Indy
gets #1
Bears get #16 #47 and Daron Payne, Commanders get #4.

This seems reasonable and not wildly over valuing our picks.

It would mean the Bears get 2 premier defensive tackles with one only 25/6 yrs old.
They would retain a mid first round pick = #16 where they could get an offensive tackle or a defensive edge.

Then they would have 3 second round picks = 35, 47 and 53

Followed by the first pick in round 3

I think that’s a realistic scenario. I fully expect Payne to be tagged by Washington

[thunderspirit]

Chris Trapasso at CBS sports has us trading with the Raiders.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... er-d-line/

For the first pick in the draft we get the Raiders:

2023 -first, second, third and fourth round picks,
2024 - first and third round picks, and
2025 - first and fourth round picks.

I think that's a good return (not great)

1 - I think that's better than a great return.

It's a terrific return. I'm not all that keen on the Bears moving out of the top 4, but for that? Yeah, I'll forget all that caution.

[wab]

Watch. The Bears are gonna stay at #1 and draft Carter and this board is going to be chaos.

[crueltyabc]

If the Bears draft Carter and the first QB drafted goes to Carolina at 9 or something like that, I'll defend Poles. If they draft Carter and 3 QBs go in the next 3 picks... I'll freak the fuck out

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Watch. The Bears are gonna stay at #1 and draft Carter and this board is going to be chaos.

Depends on FA moves

[Hema2.0]

Watch. The Bears are gonna stay at #1 and draft Carter and this board is going to be chaos.

If they stay at 1, it better be because there were no viable offers made.

[crueltyabc]

Poles will say Carter at 1.1 was the plan all along, and we will never know what he was offered. Still, I am willing to hate him if a bunch of QBs go early and he didn't find a way to take advantage of that.

[crueltyabc]

I've done a little research and feel like there are about 12 players I'd feel comfortable with, then the potential for a major dropoff, so I choose 11-15 as the top end where I'm getting a major haul relative to other offers.

[Moriarty]

Watch. The Bears are gonna stay at #1 and draft Carter and this board is going to be chaos.

I can see them going no lower than 4, in order to guarantee a premium lineman.

But, yeah, if they stay at 1? "Attica! Attica!"

[The Cooler King]

If the Bears draft Carter and the first QB drafted goes to Carolina at 9 or something like that, I'll defend Poles. If they draft Carter and 3 QBs go in the next 3 picks... I'll freak the fuck out

My personal rule with trade downs is to try and not create any hypotheticals.

Find the closest trade down after your pick. Would you take that same deal? If it's no, then you're probably just creating a fictional reality where there was a deal that didn't exist.

[Heinz D.]

...I also think there is a chance (30%??) McDaniels gets Brady to come to Vegas.

It wouldn't really matter much, as McDaniels would still be the coach.

Watch. The Bears are gonna stay at #1 and draft Carter and this board is going to be chaos.

Kevin Warren let the plan slip during his introductory press conference. He stated that "all these draft picks" were one of the big reasons that it's an exciting time for the franchise. I don't think he was referring to 1 and 53...