2023 Draft Sims

College football and the NFL Draft

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thunderspirit
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I like Ivan Pace Jr quite a bit, @karhu.

And both you and @Moriarty taking Tippmann warms my heart. Though to be fair I like nearly all of Mori's latest Day 3 draft.
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
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Looking over the various trade scenarios, I wondered if trades are likely to have an appreciable impact on the Bears' cap space for post draft spending. I took a look at Overthecap's projections for signing draftees by pick number and they seemed to take rather random walks as one goes down the list, and I thought draft slots, particularly after the 1st were pretty much a formula.. Anybody know how they arrive at their estimates?

Anybody know a better way of checking the relationship between draft-value charts and rookie-pools.
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Middleguard wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:56 pm Looking over the various trade scenarios, I wondered if trades are likely to have an appreciable impact on the Bears' cap space for post draft spending. I took a look at Overthecap's projections for signing draftees by pick number and they seemed to take rather random walks as one goes down the list, and I thought draft slots, particularly after the 1st were pretty much a formula.. Anybody know how they arrive at their estimates?

Anybody know a better way of checking the relationship between draft-value charts and rookie-pools.
I think if I were curious enough, I'd copy/paste the 256 draft slot numbers and trade value chart numbers (maybe rescale one relative to the other to make comparisons easier), fit a curve to each of them, plot and look at general curve steepness.

If the rookie numbers are flatter than the trade chart, then trading down will burn up more of your cap.
If the rookie numbers are steeper than the trade chart, then trading down would burn less of your cap.

(assuming the actual trade followed the chart used relatively well)

https://overthecap.com/draft
Reading this, I can't tell if the rookie numbers come from the NFL directly or from the FS chart or ....?

Looking at the chart, I think I see what you mean about the FS values by team jumping all over the place.
I think maybe the rookie numbers don't really follow what pick the teams actually have (that is to say, it doesn't reflect trades and movement with the rounds).

For example, in R2, the Bears have the highest number ($1826), but that's not actually their pick. They have the 53 pick from Baltimore. That's really unclear as you look at the righthand side, but when you look at the 3 columns, the FS value should correspond well to the Cap and/or the Pool columns. From a quick eyeball test, it looks like it does. The Cap and Pool columns reflect teams having lost or added picks, via trades.
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Moriarty wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:29 pm I think if I were curious enough, I'd copy/paste the 256 draft slot numbers and trade value chart numbers (maybe rescale one relative to the other to make comparisons easier), fit a curve to each of them, plot and look at general curve steepness.

If the rookie numbers are flatter than the trade chart, then trading down will burn up more of your cap.
If the rookie numbers are steeper than the trade chart, then trading down would burn less of your cap.

(assuming the actual trade followed the chart used relatively well)
That's what I was attempting do do.
Moriarty wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:29 pm Looking at the chart, I think I see what you mean about the FS values by team jumping all over the place.
I think maybe the rookie numbers don't really follow what pick the teams actually have (that is to say, it doesn't reflect trades and movement with the rounds).

For example, in R2, the Bears have the highest number ($1826), but that's not actually their pick. They have the 53 pick from Baltimore. That's really unclear as you look at the righthand side, but when you look at the 3 columns, the FS value should correspond well to the Cap and/or the Pool columns. From a quick eyeball test, it looks like it does. The Cap and Pool columns reflect teams having lost or added picks, via trades.
I do not think the left and right charts are related. You have to hover over the right hand chart to see whose it is, not look to the left. What I'm complaining about is the difficulty in fitting a curve to the chart on the right. It's bumpier than I thought it would be and I don't understand why.
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It's a genuinely bumpy curve, yep. Let us know if you write to OTC and hear back--my guess is that it owes something to their analysis of previous contracts, but there's nothing to explain the drop, fer example, in the value of #5's contract to #6's.
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karhu wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 4:04 am It's a genuinely bumpy curve, yep. Let us know if you write to OTC and hear back--my guess is that it owes something to their analysis of previous contracts, but there's nothing to explain the drop, fer example, in the value of #5's contract to #6's.
Reverse engineered it myself. Faster than correspondence. They based it entirely off of last year. Not a very useful method for my purposes. They probably have a hard time smoothing the bumps themselves.

They calculated the signing bonus as ~ 1.088 * last year's signing bonus.
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PFN....could not pass up four 1sts and a 2nd to move up 1 spot from HOU! More realistic would be 2, 33, and one of the 1sts next year.

2. Jalen Carter DT Georgia trade icon
12. Tyree Wilson EDGE Texas Tech trade icon
33. Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma trade icon
53. Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee
64. John Michael Schmitz OC Minnesota
101. Devon Achane RB Texas A&M
132. Trey Dean III S Florida
133. SirVocea Dennis LB Pittsburgh
155. Jonathan Mingo WR Ole Miss
197. Ja'von Hicks S Cincinnati

2024 CLE 1st
2024 HOU 1st
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Middleguard wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:58 am
karhu wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 4:04 am It's a genuinely bumpy curve, yep. Let us know if you write to OTC and hear back--my guess is that it owes something to their analysis of previous contracts, but there's nothing to explain the drop, fer example, in the value of #5's contract to #6's.
Reverse engineered it myself. Faster than correspondence. They based it entirely off of last year. Not a very useful method for my purposes. They probably have a hard time smoothing the bumps themselves.

They calculated the signing bonus as ~ 1.088 * last year's signing bonus.
Yeah, that sounds like they had a good idea and left it half-executed. Someone with actual Python skills could probably go back and find an actual smooth curve reflecting the last five years or so. 'Tain't me, I'm afraid.
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Z Bear wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 1:21 pm PFN....could not pass up four 1sts and a 2nd to move up 1 spot from HOU! More realistic would be 2, 33, and one of the 1sts next year.

2. Jalen Carter DT Georgia trade icon
12. Tyree Wilson EDGE Texas Tech trade icon
33. Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma trade icon
53. Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee
64. John Michael Schmitz OC Minnesota
101. Devon Achane RB Texas A&M
132. Trey Dean III S Florida
133. SirVocea Dennis LB Pittsburgh
155. Jonathan Mingo WR Ole Miss
197. Ja'von Hicks S Cincinnati

2024 CLE 1st
2024 HOU 1st
This is why I stopped doing sims. It's just too unrealistic.
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Still Poles was a bit “sim- like” on day 3 last year :lol:
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Z Bear wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 1:21 pm PFN....could not pass up four 1sts and a 2nd to move up 1 spot from HOU! More realistic would be 2, 33, and one of the 1sts next year.

2. Jalen Carter DT Georgia trade icon
12. Tyree Wilson EDGE Texas Tech trade icon
33. Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma trade icon
53. Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee
64. John Michael Schmitz OC Minnesota
101. Devon Achane RB Texas A&M
132. Trey Dean III S Florida
133. SirVocea Dennis LB Pittsburgh
155. Jonathan Mingo WR Ole Miss
197. Ja'von Hicks S Cincinnati

2024 CLE 1st
2024 HOU 1st
LOL. Got that offer a few weeks ago. Poles would have to certifiably insane to reject that offer and Huston'sGM insane to make it.
Drafts are like snowflakes, no two are alike.
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What the heck; I threw a few bucks at Fanspeak. Fambase, did my best to ignore weird rankings

TRADES
1.1 to Indy for 1.4, 2.35, 2024 first
2.4, 5.23, 2024 6th to KC for 1.30
3.1 to Atlanta for 3.8, 4.8, 2024 6th
4.1 to Carolina for 4.9 and 4.29

DRAFT
R1 P4 DT Jalen Carter - Georgia
As my opinion of the DEs in this draft takes shape, Carter's started to stand proud of the herd.

R1 P30 DE Lukas Van Ness - Iowa
I think this is realistically as low as he'll go. Nicely enough, I don't think he gets past the pick we sent to Pittsburgh. So I had to trade up a little.

R2 P23 OT Darnell Wright - Tennessee
He's not supposed to be our kind of tackle...but his kind of tackle isn't supposed to play the way he does.

R3 P8 TE Luke Musgrave - Oregon State
Don't think he'll last nearly this long, but you've got to take the injury and the layoff into consideration.

R4 P8 WR Parker Washington - Penn State
Looks to be a solid complement to what passes as our core. Some Deebo vibes, too.

R4 P9 OT Wanya Morris - Oklahoma
Could be a very good swing tackle, or an even better LG. Let's try him at LG first.

R4 P29 DL Keeanu Benton - Wisconsin
It was Mazi Smith or Wright, and I went with the RT. Benton's a very nice consolation prize, though.

R4 P32 DE Ochaun Mathis - Nebraska
I'm not sure that he looks miles better than Robinson or Gipson at similar stages, but at least now we should have a compelling guy on the other side. May the best man win.

R5 P1 OL Joe Tippmann - Wisconsin
He's to the line as Chase Brown is to the RB corps: the guy who makes a ton of sense and who should go around the top of the fifth. Let's finish the line first.

R7 P1 CB Sevyn Banks - LSU
Could've taken a shot in the dark at LB, but better to add a CB and help settle things down in a secondary that will now have a real pass rush in front of it.
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I'd be perfectly happy with that draft. I do think Van Ness is going to move into the early teens after the combine though. The JJ Watt comparisons will be never ending.
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karhu wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:07 am What the heck; I threw a few bucks at Fanspeak. Fambase, did my best to ignore weird rankings
Did you remember to select the Buffalo Fambase board?
Only worthwhile one so far
karhu wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:07 am
R7 P1 CB Sevyn Banks - LSU
Could've taken a shot in the dark at LB, but better to add a CB and help settle things down in a secondary that will now have a real pass rush in front of it.
Pretty sure he went back for his 17th year or whatever it is
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Banks only had one year of eligibility left when he transferred to LSU, so he's draft eligible. But I do think he might be 30 already.
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Moriarty wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 10:16 am
karhu wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:07 am What the heck; I threw a few bucks at Fanspeak. Fambase, did my best to ignore weird rankings
Did you remember to select the Buffalo Fambase board?
Only worthwhile one so far
Yep; thanks for the tip, though.
karhu wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:07 am
R7 P1 CB Sevyn Banks - LSU
Could've taken a shot in the dark at LB, but better to add a CB and help settle things down in a secondary that will now have a real pass rush in front of it.
Pretty sure he went back for his 17th year or whatever it is
Really? Does he have tenure by now?
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Huh. He'll be 23 when the season starts. Who'd'a thunk it?
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PFF

Trade 1.1 for 1.4, 2.35, 3.79, 4.106, plus some 2024 picks


1.4 3T Jalen Carter, Georgia
2.35 DL Tuli Tuipulotu, USC
2.54 WR Rashee Rice, SMU
3.64 WLB Daiyan Henley, Wash St
3.79 C Jarrett Patterson, Notre Dame
4.103 G Joe Tippmann, Wisconsin
4.106 WR Dontayvion Wicks, Virginia
5.137 T Wanya Morris, Oklahoma
5.150 DE Thomas Incoom, Central Michigan
6.178 TE Zack Kuntz, Old Dominion
6.199 HB Travis Dye, USC
7.220 S Brandon Hill, Pitt
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I am going into these now assuming we will be signing Payne or Hargraves at DT, one of the two McGs at RT, and someone at DE (Davenport, Clowney, Key, Ebukam, or Ngakoue).

PFN....Double trade down with Hou to 2 then Seattle came calliing for it. Also trying to see what can be done with missing out on Anderson and Carter. This is assuming we signed Payne, McGary, and Clowney at DE.

5. Quentin Johnston WR TCU trade icon
12. Tyree Wilson EDGE Texas Tech trade icon
20. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio State trade icon
33. Henry To'oTo'o LB Alabama trade icon
37. Siaki Ika DT Baylor trade icon
53. Andre Carter II EDGE Army
64. Tucker Kraft TE South Dakota State
103. Tank Bigsby RB Auburn CHI
123. Joe Tippmann OC Wisconsin trade icon
134. Zacch Pickens DT South Carolina
137. Rashad Torrence II S Florida
159. Daiyan Henley LB Washington State
210. Stetson Bennett QB Georgia

2024 CLE 1st
2024 HOU 1st
2024 SEA 1st
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Below is my post Senior Bowl Hype mock draft. I used NFL Mock Draft Database Simulator and kept the trades very fair and balanced. Big focus on rebuilding the D Line with a bit of OLine help as well. Many of these picks were already on my radar but they really shined at the Senior Bowl (Benton, Musgrave, McDonald, Rush, S. Brown, Ekiyor.)

Trade Back #1:
Houston Receives:
2023: Round 1, Pick 1

Chicago Receives:
2023: Round 1, Pick 2
2023: Round 2, Pick 33
2023: Round 6, Pick 188

Trade Back #2:
Indianapolis Receives:
2023: Round 1, Pick 2
2023: Round 4, Pick 134

Chicago Receives:
2023: Round 1, Pick 4
2023: Round 2, Pick 35
2023: Round 3, Pick 79
2024: Round 2



4>Jalen Carter 3T| Georgia

33>Lukas Van Ness EDGE | Iowa

35>Dawand Jones OT | Ohio State

53> Luke Musgrave TE | Oregon State

64>Keeanu Benton DT| Wisconsin

79>Will McDonald IV EDGE | Iowa State

103>Sydney Brown S/NB | Illinois

137>Chase Brown RB | Illinois

150>Emil Ekiyor Jr. G/C| Alabama

188>Demario Douglas WR/PR | Liberty

220>Darius Rush CB | South Carolina
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PFN Mock Draft:

Trade 1 : Colts receive #1, Bears receive #4, 35, 79, 2024 R1 and 2024 R2
Trade 2: Seattle receives #4, Bears receive #5 and 52
Trade 3: Steelers receive #5, Bears receive #17, 32, 49, 80
Trade 4: Miami receives #35, Bears receive #51, 84
Trade 5 : Browns receive #134 , Bears receive # 142, 190

Draft:
17: P Skoronski OT Northwestern
32: F Anudike-Uzomah DE Kansas State
49: G Dexter DT Florida
51: T Tuipulotu DE USC
52: J-M Schmitz OC Minnesota
53: E Ricks CB Alabama
64: O Pappoe LB Auburn
79: Ji’Ayir Brown S Penn State
80: J Campbell LB Iowa
84: A T Perry WR Wake Forest
103: M Diabate LB Utah
137: C Wooden DT Auburn
142: N Broeker OG Ole Miss
159 : D Thompson-Robinson QB UCLA
190: D Vaughn RB Kansas State
210: N Herbig DE Wisconsin

Plus Colts R1 and R2 from 2024

Nice haul. VERY happy with last 4 picks
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i feel like we may be getting a safety early this year to replace eddie. even if he comes back.
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Trying out different trade parnters, this one was with ATL on the PFN site. No other trades, just the one for ATL up to 1. Got a decent haul this year plus their 1st and 2nd round next year. Would be real happy with this class.


8. Tyree Wilson EDGE Texas Tech trade icon
44. John Michael Schmitz OC Minnesota trade icon
53. Darnell Wright OT Tennessee
64. Cedric Tillman WR Tennessee
75. Calijah Kancey DT Pittsburgh trade icon
103. Tyjae Spears RB Tulane
134. Trey Palmer WR Nebraska
137. Daiyan Henley LB Washington State
159. Julius Brents CB Kansas State
210. Malik CunninghamQB Louisville

2024 ATL 1st
2024 ATL 2nd
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8. Bryan Bresee
DT Clemson
trade icon
CHI

12. Quentin Johnston
WR TCU
trade icon
CHI

18. Peter Skoronski
OT Northwestern
trade icon
CHI

33. Devon Witherspoon
CB Illinois
trade icon
CHI

44. Felix Anudike-Uzomah
EDGE Kansas State
trade icon
CHI

48. John Michael Schmitz
OC Minnesota
trade icon
CHI

53. Gervon Dexter
DT Florida
CHI

55. Dalton Kincaid
TE Utah
trade icon
CHI

64. Cedric Tillman
WR Tennessee
CHI

103.Zach Harrison
EDGE Ohio State
CHI

134.Kendre Miller
RB TCU
CHI

137.Jammie Robinson
S Florida State
CHI

159.Daiyan Henley
LB Washington State
CHI

210.Cam Jones
LB Indiana

2024 CLE 1st
2024 DET 1st
2024 HOU 2nd
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southdakbearfan wrote: Fri Feb 10, 2023 10:58 am 8. Bryan Bresee
DT Clemson
trade icon
CHI

12. Quentin Johnston
WR TCU
trade icon
CHI

18. Peter Skoronski
OT Northwestern
trade icon
CHI

33. Devon Witherspoon
CB Illinois
trade icon
CHI

44. Felix Anudike-Uzomah
EDGE Kansas State
trade icon
CHI

48. John Michael Schmitz
OC Minnesota
trade icon
CHI

53. Gervon Dexter
DT Florida
CHI

55. Dalton Kincaid
TE Utah
trade icon
CHI

64. Cedric Tillman
WR Tennessee
CHI

103.Zach Harrison
EDGE Ohio State
CHI

134.Kendre Miller
RB TCU
CHI

137.Jammie Robinson
S Florida State
CHI

159.Daiyan Henley
LB Washington State
CHI

210.Cam Jones
LB Indiana

2024 CLE 1st
2024 DET 1st
2024 HOU 2nd
Holy crap, what a haul that would be. I think Miller from TCU's okay but I'm liking Spears from Tulane, Deuce Vaughn from K State, and Kenny McIntoshh from Georgia as RBs. I also wouldn't mind the team taking a developmental QB.
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PFN
(Countered offers and took less on all trades to avoid their insane tradeup prices)


1.1 for 1.4, 2.35, 3.79, 4.106, 24-R3, 24-R4 (Indy)
1.4 for 1.9, 2.39, 7.247 (Carolina)
1.9 for 1.15, 2.45 (GB - not sure if this one makes sense for them, but probably could have traded with someone down further and still gotten Foskey, so I think it works out ok, regardless.)



1.15 Isaiah Foskey RDE Notre Dame
2.35 Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee
2.39 Tuli Tuipulotu 3T USC
2.45 Lukas Van Ness LDE Iowa
2.53 Jarrett Patterson C Notre Dame
3.64 Daiyan Henley WLB Washington State
3.79 Keeanu Benton 1T Wisconsin
4.103 Wanya Morris T Oklahoma
4.106 Joe Tippmann G Wisconsin
4.134 Andrei Iosivas WR Princeton
5.137 Roschon Johnson RB Texas
5.159 Zack Kuntz TE Old Dominion
7.210 Anfernee Orji LB Vanderbilt
7.247 Dante Stills 3T/DE West Virginia
2024 IND 3rd
2024 IND 4th

a full new DL who should be FT starters within a year at most
WLB to complement Sanborn
2 eventual OL starter upgrades, plus a backup
starting WR, plus high upside backups at WR and TE
power HB to replace DM

FA RT + CB are in my blueprint

That really leaves S (EJax injury, Cruickshank & DHC FAs) as the only place that concerns didn't get addressed. Can't fix everything and Day 3 S looks fairly crappy to me right now.
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Grizzled wrote: Fri Feb 10, 2023 1:49 pm
southdakbearfan wrote: Fri Feb 10, 2023 10:58 am 8. Bryan Bresee
DT Clemson
trade icon
CHI

12. Quentin Johnston
WR TCU
trade icon
CHI

18. Peter Skoronski
OT Northwestern
trade icon
CHI

33. Devon Witherspoon
CB Illinois
trade icon
CHI

44. Felix Anudike-Uzomah
EDGE Kansas State
trade icon
CHI

48. John Michael Schmitz
OC Minnesota
trade icon
CHI

53. Gervon Dexter
DT Florida
CHI

55. Dalton Kincaid
TE Utah
trade icon
CHI

64. Cedric Tillman
WR Tennessee
CHI

103.Zach Harrison
EDGE Ohio State
CHI

134.Kendre Miller
RB TCU
CHI

137.Jammie Robinson
S Florida State
CHI

159.Daiyan Henley
LB Washington State
CHI

210.Cam Jones
LB Indiana

2024 CLE 1st
2024 DET 1st
2024 HOU 2nd
Holy crap, what a haul that would be. I think Miller from TCU's okay but I'm liking Spears from Tulane, Deuce Vaughn from K State, and Kenny McIntoshh from Georgia as RBs. I also wouldn't mind the team taking a developmental QB.
Yeah, I like spears and McIntosh a lot too. Vaughn kind of gives me that Tariq vibe a bit.

I wouldn’t mind a developmental guy with a similar skill set to fields, but with so many holes on the team it’s just hard to pull the trigger very early on guys you hope never play.
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southdakbearfan wrote: Fri Feb 10, 2023 3:21 pm
Grizzled wrote: Fri Feb 10, 2023 1:49 pm

Holy crap, what a haul that would be. I think Miller from TCU's okay but I'm liking Spears from Tulane, Deuce Vaughn from K State, and Kenny McIntoshh from Georgia as RBs. I also wouldn't mind the team taking a developmental QB.
Yeah, I like spears and McIntosh a lot too. Vaughn kind of gives me that Tariq vibe a bit.

I wouldn’t mind a developmental guy with a similar skill set to fields, but with so many holes on the team it’s just hard to pull the trigger very early on guys you hope never play.
Maybe round 6 for a developmental QB?
Drafts are like snowflakes, no two are alike.
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DTR is the day 3 QB development guy :thumbsup:
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PFF mock draft simulator, 2 rounds:

Bears trade 1:1 to Indy (Houston wasn't interested) for 1:4, 2:4, 2024 1st, 2024 2nd

Bears trade 1:4 to Carolina for 1:9, 2nd rounder (#39) and Brian Burns (trade not forced)

1:9 Paris Johnson, OT Ohio State
R2:35 Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
R2:39 Kalijah Klancy, DT, Pittsburgh
R2:54 Cdy Mauch, OL, North Dakota State
Drafts are like snowflakes, no two are alike.
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