Justin Fields Megathread - A story of Lovers and Haters

[wab]

The short throw accuracy thing is weird. He can drop a 60 yard dime into the basket but then turns around and clunks a 3 yard screen off of Reiff's helmet.

[The Cooler King]

The short throw accuracy thing is weird. He can drop a 60 yard dime into the basket but then turns around and clunks a 3 yard screen off of Reiff's helmet.

I lean towards yips. And I wonder if he's trying to process to much in his head. There were stories about his playbook recall ability, but sometimes it's better to just be out there playing ball and not think through progressions. Can we get him to hang out with Baker and see if it rubs off?

[The Cooler King]

This is also where a stud X WR would help too. Just a security blanket who's always open no matter coverage and creates a few easy throws that require zero thought/progression

[IE]

I won't disagree. I think I saw his confidence ebb and flow over the course of the season, sort of peaking around mid-season where it may have been the convergence of him "getting it" and also the team still being relatively healthy (importantly Mooney and the Oline was at its best up through the 2nd Pack game). Then I do think the wheels came off a bit after the Eagles game, for whatever reason.

I like to think that a reasonably sustained performance over a big chunk of a season is a really great sign of a floor establishing for a young QB. It doesn't cost a penny more to have cautious optimism on good things when nothing really conclusive can be mined out of the data. Especially when some early returns are highly encouraging. That's how I roll. People don't see the cautious part but it is there.

I see JF1's important development areas as:
- slow the game, trust the OL and climb the pocket, prioritizing pass first
- take what the D gives you
- screen pass execution
- learning the right times to throw it away
- study the shit out of Aaron Rodgers' play fakes (e.g. the one that turned into a nice screen TD to Kmet was masterful)
- spend the entire offseason with Kmet, Claypool and ESB

[IE]

The short throw accuracy thing is weird. He can drop a 60 yard dime into the basket but then turns around and clunks a 3 yard screen off of Reiff's helmet.

I wonder if some of that is trying to work on mechanics. Big OL in the way? Jump throw it. Mahomes can, and so can you. Work on mechanics when the situation is right. When conditions are imperfect - and in football they often are - use your exceptional athleticism to do things others can't.

[thunderspirit]

The short throw accuracy thing is weird. He can drop a 60 yard dime into the basket but then turns around and clunks a 3 yard screen off of Reiff's helmet.

I wonder if some of that is trying to work on mechanics. Big OL in the way? Jump throw it. Mahomes can, and so can you. Work on mechanics when the situation is right. When conditions are imperfect - and in football they often are - use your exceptional athleticism to do things others can't.

Mechanics are certainly part of it. I've noted a number of times, on quick throws especially, that Fields' footwork isn't right and the ball doesn't go where he wants it to.

[IE]

I wonder if some of that is trying to work on mechanics. Big OL in the way? Jump throw it. Mahomes can, and so can you. Work on mechanics when the situation is right. When conditions are imperfect - and in football they often are - use your exceptional athleticism to do things others can't.

Mechanics are certainly part of it. I've noted a number of times, on quick throws especially, that Fields' footwork isn't right and the ball doesn't go where he wants it to.

Yeah - he may indeed be in his own head too much. He needs to get the mechanics down eventually but also needs to understand when and when it is not important to focus on them because he's going to try to accomplish something that good mechanics won't support.

JF1 maybe doesn't have the quickest or experienced feet when it comes to short passing. That could be a reason why he struggled on the short passes where quick feet are most important. Not saying he can't do it, because he's as coordinated as big pocket passers. But he's never really had to master that like less mobile QBs do as a survival point. Their elusiveness is getting rid of it. JF1 buys it with his houdini acts and athleticism. He needs to be able to do both.

[The Cooler King]

Well someone did the treasure trove of PFF split data so you don't have to rely on my own ad-hoc and sparse contributions.

Tonnnsss of split data here

Code: Select all

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/comments/10q5dj5/justin_fields_by_way_to_many_numbers/

(copy and paste link from code because the reddit imbedded image is huge)

[The Marshall Plan]

The short throw accuracy thing is weird. He can drop a 60 yard dime into the basket but then turns around and clunks a 3 yard screen off of Reiff's helmet.

Oh no.

Our QB isn’t Steve Walsh.

He’s the exact opposite.

Women and children to the lifeboats first.

[wab]

The short throw accuracy thing is weird. He can drop a 60 yard dime into the basket but then turns around and clunks a 3 yard screen off of Reiff's helmet.

Oh no.

Our QB isn’t Steve Walsh.

He’s the exact opposite.

Women and children to the lifeboats first.

I know he's 1000% infallible in your eyes, but you'll just have to trust me when I say things like this, that it's not a slight against him.

[RichH55]

Well someone did the treasure trove of PFF split data so you don't have to rely on my own ad-hoc and sparse contributions.

Tonnnsss of split data here
https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/comme ... y_numbers/

Could you do link again please?

[The Cooler King]

Well someone did the treasure trove of PFF split data so you don't have to rely on my own ad-hoc and sparse contributions.

Tonnnsss of split data here
<Snip>

Could you do link again please?

My bad!

Putting it in code cuz the imbed is so big.

Code: Select all

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/comments/10q5dj5/justin_fields_by_way_to_many_numbers/

[dplank]

JMO, but I felt like he kinda had the yips for a while there early in the season. He kept missing stupid easy throws that any one of us could have made, like little 4 yard flip passes. But once he started to take off midseason, I think he overcame this problem and put it behind him. I really think he's going to just go off next year and establish himself as a Top 5 QB.

[RichH55]

Could you do link again please?

My bad!

Putting it in code cuz the imbed is so big.

Code: Select all

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/comments/10q5dj5/justin_fields_by_way_to_many_numbers/

Thank you - that is fun

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I’m giving Fields some leeway for all the shitty unpunished late hits he took.
That bound to hit your confidence it’s bound to add an extra factor in your speed of processing.

[The Marshall Plan]

Oh no.

Our QB isn’t Steve Walsh.

He’s the exact opposite.

Women and children to the lifeboats first.

I know he's 1000% infallible in your eyes, but you'll just have to trust me when I say things like this, that it's not a slight against him.

He really is with me. My golden boy QB.

With all the bullshit he's been through here between McNagy and general douschebaggery by the front office in not giving him teammates, yes I give him the benefit of the doubt on virtually everything.

Go right ahead Justin. Shoot somebody at high noon on Main Street USA. I didn't see a thing.

[Grizzled]

Even (especialy) the short passing game sucked this year. Don't know why Getsy used it the way he largely did but it should have been used more to help Fields develop. As IE said, though, therunning game was used so heavily this year, a short passing game just didn't develop. Throw stats around all you want, Fields is the best QB drafted in forever. His 2nd year wasn't as beneficial as it should have been; the Bears can't jack around with not getting him the support he needs in '23.

Edited for braindead typos.

[karhu]

JMO, but I felt like he kinda had the yips for a while there early in the season. He kept missing stupid easy throws that any one of us could have made, like little 4 yard flip passes. But once he started to take off midseason, I think he overcame this problem and put it behind him. I really think he's going to just go off next year and establish himself as a Top 5 QB.

If that was him hitting his stride, we're in a whole lot of trouble.

I don't think it was, and I think he'll make good use of the offseason. But last we saw him, he was a QB who wouldn't or couldn't throw a quick slant. Cleaning up the screens was just the start.

[dplank]

JMO, but I felt like he kinda had the yips for a while there early in the season. He kept missing stupid easy throws that any one of us could have made, like little 4 yard flip passes. But once he started to take off midseason, I think he overcame this problem and put it behind him. I really think he's going to just go off next year and establish himself as a Top 5 QB.

If that was him hitting his stride, we're in a whole lot of trouble.

I don't think it was, and I think he'll make good use of the offseason. But last we saw him, he was a QB who wouldn't or couldn't throw a quick slant. Cleaning up the screens was just the start.

That's not what I meant. I was just referring to the point in the season where he seemed to turn the corner and start to play well pretty consistently from there. I thought that happened in the 2nd half of the first Minnesota game personally. He seemed like a different QB from that point on, far more in control IMO.

[karhu]

If that was him hitting his stride, we're in a whole lot of trouble.

I don't think it was, and I think he'll make good use of the offseason. But last we saw him, he was a QB who wouldn't or couldn't throw a quick slant. Cleaning up the screens was just the start.

That's not what I meant. I was just referring to the point in the season where he seemed to turn the corner and start to play well pretty consistently from there. I thought that happened in the 2nd half of the first Minnesota game personally. He seemed like a different QB from that point on, far more in control IMO.

Gotcha. He's in a weird spot, having to recreate his game after setting CFB on fire. For someone like Allen or even Mahomes, it was a more linear process. Agreed that he put together some stuff to build on...and it kinda stinks that for the next eight months or so, he'll be in a black box as far as the rest of us are concerned.

[optimusprime]

It's crazy to me that we saw that the Eagles go on a two game losing streak, one of those loses against the execrable saints when that bum Minshew took over, and still call Hurts overrated. He's playing absolutely fantastic football this year and is where i'm dreaming Fields is at this time next year.

It is certainly true that Jalen Hurts has been playing some impressive football this season. He has been leading the Eagles to wins and his stats have been impressive. He has been able to effectively manage the offense and make good decisions with the football, which has been a huge help for Philadelphia's success. However, it is also true that the two losses that Philadelphia suffered were undoubtedly not due to Hurts' play, but because of the poor performance of the rest of the team. The Eagles have had a lot of struggles on defense and with the offensive line, which have caused them to drop two games in a row. So while Hurts has been playing well, it is unfair to say that he is overrated when the team around him has not been able to perform at a high level.

[Heinz D.]

The biggest problem is that Getsy has given Fields the green light to run in pretty much any situation--as Fields is a big dude with 4.4 speed.

That has to stop. Hopefully, with a better line and more weapons, it will be an easy transition.

[thunderspirit]

I have zero interest in Getsy telling Fields to stop running.

I have a whole lot of interest in there being other options to consider than Fields running.

[wab]

It's crazy to me that we saw that the Eagles go on a two game losing streak, one of those loses against the execrable saints when that bum Minshew took over, and still call Hurts overrated. He's playing absolutely fantastic football this year and is where i'm dreaming Fields is at this time next year.

It is certainly true that Jalen Hurts has been playing some impressive football this season. He has been leading the Eagles to wins and his stats have been impressive. He has been able to effectively manage the offense and make good decisions with the football, which has been a huge help for Philadelphia's success. However, it is also true that the two losses that Philadelphia suffered were undoubtedly not due to Hurts' play, but because of the poor performance of the rest of the team. The Eagles have had a lot of struggles on defense and with the offensive line, which have caused them to drop two games in a row. So while Hurts has been playing well, it is unfair to say that he is overrated when the team around him has not been able to perform at a high level.

Um. The Eagles have the best offensive line and the best defense in the league. In two of the three games they lost, the Commanders and the Cowboys just beat them. The Eagles have played at a high level all season, and arguably more consistently than any team in the NFL.

[dplank]

It is certainly true that Jalen Hurts has been playing some impressive football this season. He has been leading the Eagles to wins and his stats have been impressive. He has been able to effectively manage the offense and make good decisions with the football, which has been a huge help for Philadelphia's success. However, it is also true that the two losses that Philadelphia suffered were undoubtedly not due to Hurts' play, but because of the poor performance of the rest of the team. The Eagles have had a lot of struggles on defense and with the offensive line, which have caused them to drop two games in a row. So while Hurts has been playing well, it is unfair to say that he is overrated when the team around him has not been able to perform at a high level.

Um. The Eagles have the best offensive line and the best defense in the league. In two of the three games they lost, the Commanders and the Cowboys just beat them. The Eagles have played at a high level all season, and arguably more consistently than any team in the NFL.

Yea, and not only that they have absolutely elite level pass catchers in Brown, Smith, and Goedert. I’d put that group up there with anyone in the league. Hurts has the best surrounding cast in the NFL IMO, great OL, great pass catchers, great defense.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

I have zero interest in Getsy telling Fields to stop running.

I have a whole lot of interest in there being other options to consider than Fields running.

Then you should be happy to read this.

Bears want running to be part of QB Justin Fields’ game, but not the majority of it

MOBILE, Ala. — Justin Fields can run better than any quarterback in the NFL, even former MVP Lamar Jackson, and there’s nothing bad about that whatsoever. The Bears would be crazy to try and scrub that from his game as they try to develop him.

And they don’t intend to do so. Instead, they’re looking to make it a more reasonable and sustainable piece of how he plays, but he’ll need to make major strides as a passer for that to be possible.

“It’s got to be a part of who you are, [but] it’s hard for it to be who you are — you just don’t last,” offensive coordinator Luke Getsy said. “He’s really, really good at it. He’s really good at a lot of things, so we’ve got to make sure we just tap into each one of those things, but that for sure has to be a part of who we are going forward.”

Fields was the third quarterback ever to rush for 1,000 yards, but averaged a league-low 149.5 yards passing per game. He got 33.8% of his total yardage on the ground, and while his speed is a great asset, that’s too high.
...

It’s hard for Getsy to even begin scheming the offense for next season when there are so many blanks to fill.

“That’s the biggest question: Who do we have?” Getsy said. “Once we get that in place there in the next couple of months, then we’ve got to take it from there and see exactly who we want to become.”

Getsy has rejected this characterization at every turn, but he seemed to struggle at first to nail down what the offense should be last season.

The Bears averaged 16 points per game and Fields had a 58.7 passer rating over the first four games. Those numbers spiked to 25.3 points and a 97.6 rating over the next seven. Obviously something clicked.

“Anytime you enter a new season, you try to figure out who you are,” Getsy said. “You usually don’t get to figure that out until you start playing some games against real opponents.

“We navigated through that, but I wouldn’t say it’s unique. It’s pretty normal to start a new staff and get introduced to a new set of guys and try to figure it out. The important thing is we got better each week and we have to make sure that we continue that as we go forward.”
...

Full article: https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2023 ... rity-of-it

[Mikefive]

[wab]

That dude's voice was too distracting...

[malk]

I see Malk DID come back and offer some context - but then dismissed it as if it was irrelevant. Which is strange. I don't understand what the goal was there.

Genuinely not sure what you mean here? Happy to clarify if possible.

I love Fields, but I think it's equally astonishing that people don't acknowledge what you've outlined...and that when someone mentions it, it's taken as a slap in the face to Fields.

It is because that information is shared without context and I'm guessing disingenuously because there is no attempt to frame it - and therefore does not tell a story no matter how badly the person sharing it might want it to. It is misleading - whether it is based on a lack of understanding, or fear, or something else.

UNLESS the yardage concern can be supported with a crappy yards per attempt number, it doesn't mean much. For a QB with a good Y/A, yardage is a function of attempts - full stop. JF1 has attempted 21 or fewer passes in over half of his starts. It is clear that people can't stop from confusing what he HAS done with what he's demonstrated he CAN do. It is no surprise that JF1's median pass yards are only 174 ish when he only throws it 20 times a game. He CAN do more but for many good reasons (Oline, WR, new scheme, crappy D) the Bears this year opted to run more. If they opt to pass more, his yardage will go up.

Only 6 games wtih more than one TD thrown? How far does that deviate from average? How many QBs have a median of 1 TD per game - especially new ones with only a season of starting under their belt? The answer is: MOST of them. One of the upcoming superbowl QBs is thought to be pretty darn good - and his median TD is also a 1. Patrick Mahomes is well over 2. He's a freak. JF1 had a TD rate of 5.3% this season. That puts him in the middle of the ALL TIME list (which includes the great Mike Hohensee, amusingly). EXACTLY like the yardage question JF1's TD count is a function of attempts.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/highes ... game-by-qb

On interceptions, he was protecting the ball really well for a long stretch of the season. But it comes down to trying to do whatever it takes to win games. How many interceptions - what % - came at the end of games, with him trying to heroically overcome a defense that wasn't stopping anyone? What is the average INT% for #1 draft picks in their first 20 games? I don't know where to find INT splits but I'm comfortable this is not a problem beyond him being new and throwing more INTs as a new guy like many other great QBs (most?). JF1's is inflated by his lower attempts number and the situations in which the INTs came.

I mean really - we need to be smarter and more honest here and not look at numbers without context. Everybody understands the situation - last year's experience, this year's new system & team rebuild. Let's not pretend we don't, and that he didn't clearly show what he could do this past season.

Some good points here. Fields' designed runs (those above league average or whatever) take away potential passing attempts. So, crudely, we could take that rush attempt number and multiply it by his Y/A number to get a feel for where his passing game might be otherwise. Still, the figures I'd pulled (admittedly arbitrarily) were comparing under 100 and above 200, so even with designed rushes being nominally converted into passes that's an extra 35-70 yards depending on how generous we're being (7.1 y/a for 5-10 of his rushes per game).

Then on touchdowns and interceptions I'm not sure if the median is the best metric to use? Why not just look at mean?

JF1's INTs are a good discussion. Is his INT rate a concern? Is it understandable? Is it excusable? I believe it is more the two latter than the former. I do believe that is one of JF1's key development areas for this year.

My take on his INT% for '22:

- the high % is partly a function of comparatively lower attempt volume... a larger number of short easy passes would reduce it - but the Bears had confidence in their running game to reduce short passing.
- the Bear D put them behind the 8 ball and forced risk taking, making the % is partly a function of 4th quarter urgency that led to consciously higher risk taking combined with higher predictability (6 of his 11 INTs were in the 4th quarter, and zero in the 3rd quarter)
- I think the new system, some sketch receiving options and lack of familiarity with almost all the WR also contributed.

Thoughts?

https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/leaders ... g&rank=116

I largely agree here, and also with your later point about how a couple of deflected short passes can skew massively based on something fairly luck dependent. But still, whilst the 4th quarter urgency is an explanation for some of his picks, they were still bad throws and we want him to actually make 4th quarter comebacks. I do thing his situation will improve and he will improve so I'm perfectly happy to give him a pass for now and keep being incredibly excited, but these things aren't givens. As such I don't think he's there yet, which is largely all I'm saying really.

[dplank]

He's definitely not there yet as a passer. I'm not sure if there's anyone on the board that would say otherwise, maybe I'm wrong about that. I think the board chasm is based on how far away people think he is, and whether he's on track or not. I strongly believe that he over achieved given his circumstances - the "given his circumstances" being the key point. His circumstances were absolutely dismal, and that severely skews his stats. So any "stat" view purely of his passing numbers is so immaterial to me I simply wave it off as nonsense. I don't care how many sub 200 yard games he had, I value that particular stat about as much as I value a kick in the nuts. It's so devoid of context that it gives the appearance to many, myself included, that it's being used to slander him unnecessarily.

So when looking at him and where he needs to go next, I think everyone here agrees he needs to take the next step as a passer. And I think everyone here agrees that in order for that to happen, multiple things need to occur:

1. He needs to improve his own read/recognition/timing and "throw guys open" / with anticipation more. That's all on JF1.
2. He needs better WR's who can get open more consistently
3. He needs a OL that can pass protect better than a Pee Wee league team

Final point: Even if all of these things happen, Fields pure passing stats will likely still be dampened when viewed against his pass happy peers. This will be a simple function of the fact that Getsy believes in a run first attack plan. Fields will have less pass attempts and more rush attempts than guys like Mahomes or Herbert. Comparing his passing numbers to guys like that will never line up properly and will always require more insight than a pure statistical view.