Brett Kollman mock offseason

[Mikefive]

See here...

[dplank]

wow, Payne, Hargraves, and Jalen Carter? Two new tackles? Kohlmann went off here. Just reading into this, but does he not like Braxton Jones?

[Moriarty]

I don't have time to watch, but - is Payne and Carter lined up together something you want and something that's game and cost effective?

Yeah, I remember the Tank & Tommie plan, but I'm kind of dubious.
Who else does that?

[wulfy]

my understanding of the Tampa 2 is that you need a 3T (penetrator/disrupter) and your other tackle does more of the NT dirty work .... maybe a Mazi Smith type?

[karhu]

Yeah, I remember the Tank & Tommie plan, but I'm kind of dubious.
Who else does that?

Which one's the Armageddon-prepping lunatic in Kollmann's plan?

[karhu]

my understanding of the Tampa 2 is that you need a 3T (penetrator/disrupter) and your other tackle does more of the NT dirty work .... maybe a Mazi Smith type?

Eberflus isn't really running a Tampa 2, though. We mixed in some man coverage last year, and Tony Dungy's claim to relevance--the deep-dropping MLB--isn't really a part of what we do now.

If I trusted him and Williams to scheme a bit more creatively, I'd say that they could win with any number of alignments. It's not like there's a magic formula for assigning gap responsibility. We've had terrific defenses with 700+ pounds of Ted Washington and Keith Traylor at DT. We've had terrific defenses with Tommie Harris, Tank Johnson, and Ian Scott rotating to cover injuries and never topping 600 pounds combined.

The way I see it, we can have an average defense that meets Eberflus's insistence that he not adapt to his personnel...or a chance at a terrific defense that uses our personnel to the best advantage. I really, really hope that Poles makes this year a litmus test and just goes out and gets the most talented guys he can.

[wab]

Kohlmann is high. He lost me at 80 million for Hargrave, and then I was out when he called a 6'6 DE "kinda short".

[dplank]

I was disappointed in the video honestly. He went right down the middle - everyone wants us to get Payne but he’s not likely to be available. I watch Kollman hoping he has some other ideas that aren’t so obvious. The 49ers DE was the closest he got to that IMO. Tunsil would be great, but I doubt they trade their LT ahead of drafting a new franchise QB.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I thought he undervalued Payne, he’ll want more money in my opinion. Still I’d be happy if we did get him.

Getting 2 OT veterans sounds great but what about Braxton Jones is he going to be swing tackle?

We have so many needs spending lots of cap on 2 DTs then using our 1rd pick for a DT seems a bit odd

[UOK]

I'll save you all half an hour:

Brett Kollman 2023 Ultimate Bears rebuild

FA/TRADES

- Trade 1.1 overall to Colts for 1.4, 2.35, 3.79, R1 2024
- Trade 3.80 + R1 2024 to Houston for LT Laremy Tunsil
- Sign LT Tunsil to 4yr/$96m/$55m guaranteed/$30m signing bonus contract (-$15m 2023 cap)
- Sign DT Daron Payne to 4yr/$72m/$16m guaranteed contract (-$17m 2023 cap)
- Sign DT Javon Hargrave to 4yr/$80m/$20m guaranteed contract (-$10m 2023 cap)
- Sign EDGE Samson Ebukam to 4yr/$65m/$32m guaranteed contract (-$11m 2023 cap)
- Sign RT Kaleb McGary to 5yr/$90m/$44m guaranteed contract (-$20m 2023 cap)

2023 DRAFT

- 1.4: Jalen Carter, DL - Georgia
- 2.35: Zay Flowers, WR - Boston College
- 2.56: John Michael Schmitz, C - Minnesota
- 3.65: Xavier Hutchinson, WR - Iowa State
- 4.103: A.T. Perry, WR - Wake Forest
- 4.134: B.J. Thompson, EDGE - Stephen F. Austin
- 5.136: Chandler Zavala, OL - NC State
- 5.148: Tyjae Spears, RB - Tulane
- 7.220: Noah Gindorff, TE - North Dakota State

------

The Tunsil trade is a big maybe. I think you're taking a chance, but if you're spending that kind of money, make that offer to Orlando Brown Jr and save yourself the 2024 first. If Brown's off the board, then yeah this is possible, but otherwise, makes me wring my hands.

Signing Payne is fine. Signing Ebukam is fine. Signing McGary is fine. I'm not sure how vital the Hargrave signing would be, even if it's a glorified rental. The only way it makes sense to me is if the Bears are trading out of the top 9 or so, essentially passing on Carter or Bresee.

As far as the draft goes, drafting Carter is terrific, but it feels so pointless if you've got Hargrave, Payne, and Justin Jones on the payroll for not an insignificant amount of money for 2023.

Flowers is a sure 1st rounder, but if he's there, sure. Schmitz is a good pick. But then double dipping at WR with picks 65 and 103 is ignorant. The Bears are desperately thin at linebacker and weak at EDGE. This draft is fat with quality EDGE rushers and the WR class is considered kind of top heavy, so I don't get it. You've got Mooney (deserves an extension), Claypool (invested an elite draft pick in him), St. Brown (liked him enough to extend him), presumably a quality draft pick like Flowers, and possibly a bargain FA to flesh out the bottom of the depth chart.

So yeah, turn off the looneyworks.

The rest of the draft was immaterial, since the round 3 and 4 picks pissed me off so much.

Edit: Another thing regarding Tunsil, assuming the Texans draft a QB with their first pick, why would you trade arguably the best left tackle in the NFL who has another 3-5 years of very good play left?

[UOK]

I thought he undervalued Payne, he’ll want more money in my opinion. Still I’d be happy if we did get him.

Getting 2 OT veterans sounds great but what about Braxton Jones is he going to be swing tackle?

We have so many needs spending lots of cap on 2 DTs then using our 1rd pick for a DT seems a bit odd

It sure feels like Kollman gets tunnel vision when he has his sights set on certain players. I think the way he sees it, Braxton Jones is mediocre and hit his ceiling.

[IE]

LOL 3 WRs in the draft. Yes - he's high.

But...

- 7.220: Noah Gindorff, TE - North Dakota State

YES!!

Watching Lance highlights, Gindorff popped off the screen as a really good target with great hands, great blocking and also clearly a smart player out there. It is weird because he hardly caught any passes during his career and watching him in the highlights makes you wonder what the heck. Once Lance left he stopped scoring as much. Maybe that is understandable. I consider him a boom or bust type pick but I'd draft him higher than the (like as high as a low 5th) just on how productive he is when the ball actually gets thrown to him. I love wiley TEs and he seems to be a real gamer.

[thunderspirit]

Kollman is a good listen sometimes, but is not always the most, shall we say, grounded individual in the world.

[southdakbearfan]

So he thinks we rolling as is at linebacker too?

[Rusty Trombagent]

Kollman definitely went full meatball on this one, but he's a Bear's fan so I forgive him. I dont totally disagree with him that if we drastically improve our DL our Linebacker corps is fine as is.

So on that note? Payne AND Carter? Hell yeah. I'm a meatball too. Bringing in Carter but not instantly putting on his shoulders the mandate to be THE GUY makes a lot of sense to me. I feel like, if you're a DC and cant design a defense around those two tackles then turn in your keycard.

[IE]

Kollman definitely went full meatball on this one, but he's a Bear's fan so I forgive him. I dont totally disagree with him that if we drastically improve our DL our Linebacker corps is fine as is.

So on that note? Payne AND Carter? Hell yeah. I'm a meatball too. Bringing in Carter but not instantly putting on his shoulders the mandate to be THE GUY makes a lot of sense to me. I feel like, if you're a DC and cant design a defense around those two tackles then turn in your keycard.

There is sometimes something lost or missing if you have a guy out there that can't offer some of the usually-required characteristics of a position (like a 7+ foot shot-blocking center). But if the athletes are exceptional and the system takes advantages of the additional edge their exceptional athleticism/skills can bring, the benefits might outweigh the drawbacks. Like positionless hoops, having guys that can effectively in multiple positions is a big advantage, along with making things more difficult for the offense to diagnose, defend, counter.

700lbs of ass is a good way to run stop but if they thought that a pair of 3T types could be nearly as effective and maybe more disruptive to the QB and do better to stop the offense in general, who am I to argue.

[The Marshall Plan]

The more of the so called “professional” YouTube, Sportmockery or let’s say sports media based projections of our offseason that I see, the more thankful I am for you guys.

I’m being serious.

[IE]

The more of the so called “professional” YouTube, Sportmockery or let’s say sports media based projections of our offseason that I see, the more thankful I am for you guys.

I’m being serious.

It is a pretty horrible combination of bad/hot/attention seeking takes. I usually am hungry for that content in the offseason just so feed the Bears addiction no matter how garbage the drug is. But this time the offseason it is hard to tolerate. Actually the sports mockery guy has had some fairly grounded takes. But he throw so much against the wall that his decent takes get lost in a bunch of other nonsense.

[The Marshall Plan]

The more of the so called “professional” YouTube, Sportmockery or let’s say sports media based projections of our offseason that I see, the more thankful I am for you guys.

I’m being serious.

It is a pretty horrible combination of bad/hot/attention seeking takes. I usually am hungry for that content in the offseason just so feed the Bears addiction no matter how garbage the drug is. But this time the offseason it is hard to tolerate. Actually the sports mockery guy has had some fairly grounded takes. But he throw so much against the wall that his decent takes get lost in a bunch of other nonsense.

This off-season is already brutal with the local media and it’s obviously because of the #1 pick and the cap money.

I listen to 95.5 FM in Chicago in the morning and it’s like OK GUYS THIS MORNING WE’RE GOING TO DISCUSS THE BEARS AND THAT #1 PICK BUT FIRST HERE’S DR. FEELGOOD BY MOTLEY CRUE!!!!!

Barf.

[wab]

Kollman definitely went full meatball on this one, but he's a Bear's fan so I forgive him. I dont totally disagree with him that if we drastically improve our DL our Linebacker corps is fine as is.

Our linebacker corps as is right now, is Jack Sanborn. I can only assume that HE assumes that Morrow and Adams are back.

[Rusty Trombagent]

Kollman definitely went full meatball on this one, but he's a Bear's fan so I forgive him. I dont totally disagree with him that if we drastically improve our DL our Linebacker corps is fine as is.

Our linebacker corps as is right now, is Jack Sanborn. I can only assume that HE assumes that Morrow and Adams are back.

Yeah that's how I read it.

[UOK]

Drew Sanders or Jack Campbell in round two would be kickass. Sanders is one of my faves in this class.

[The Cooler King]

Fun video. Don't think I like the idea of flipping that very valuable draft pick for Tunsil. Yea he's good, but for all the reasons that he highlights why it might make sense for Houston to not pay him and draft a top OT prospect in 24 could also apply to Chicago. Are the FA available as good as him? No, but they could raise the OL floor in multiple areas in FA at 24M per. He must not like Braxton Jones though.

Side note, his logic when discussing Tunsil and McCary structuring made me want to pull my hair out lol. But it's okay he's not a cap guy- he's a good tape guy.

[Grizzled]

Not much sense in going so heavy at DT and WR. I doubt Houston's GM would trade away Tunsil but this trade makes no sense for the Bears. Just another example of an NFL "expert".

[The Cooler King]

Not much sense in going so heavy at DT and WR. I doubt Houston's GM would trade away Tunsil but this trade makes no sense for the Bears. Just another example of an NFL "expert".

I like him as far as draft analysts go, but breaking down tape isn't the same skill set as roster building.

[The Cooler King]

Alright here is my own early mock offseason as an alternative to Kollman. A few similarities and I stole one guy from him.

PFF just dropped their top 100 FA list, which includes salary estimates for all 100.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-free- ... ree-agency

So I used all of their contract estimates, and then ran a PFF Mock Draft as well;

Pre-Free Agency

Resign David Montgomery - 3 years, 19.5M, 12.25M guaranteed, 4.5M signing bonus

Free Agency

Wave 1:
Da'Ron Payne - DT - 4y, 80M, 55M G, 16M s.b.
- Best FA at a major need. Just splurge and do it
Mike McGlinchey - RT - 4y, 62M, 37.25M G, 12M s.b.
- Bit better as a run blocker than pass blocker, but should raise OL floor considerably and put Borom as a swing T
Zach Allen - DT - 3y - 37.5M, 26M G, 9M s.b.
- The need multiple bodies on that D front. I am not done yet....

Wave 2:
Ethan Pocic - C - 3y, 21M, 11 G, 4.5M s.b.
- Fire Mustipher into the sun
Arden Key - DE - 2y, 18.5M, 11 G, 7M s.b.
Samson Ebukam - DE - 3y, 30.75M, 20 G, 7.5M s.b.
- Little bit of a volume approach here at DE. hopefully with DT pressure, everyone's job is easier. Both have good underlying pressure metrics and are young.

Wave 3:
Bobby Okereke - LB - 3y, 25.5M, 15.75 G, 4.5M s.b.
Parris Campbell - WR - 3yr, 23.25M, 13.25 G, 4.5M s.b.
-Flus gets a couple Indy connections. Need another WR body and Cambell can line up wide an in slot. Okereke would be instant fit in Flus' D, obviously.

The grand total of this FA spree (+ Montgomery) is 97.25M in APY contacts. I worked out the structure on each so that on average 71% or ~70M hits in year 1, but year 1 cash would be ~$116M. This should put them on track to meet their cash minimum, but also keeps them well within their current 82M of effective cap space without any restructures/cuts of current deals.

Minor Re-signings at/near minimum:
RFA: Mustipher, Evans (possibly just at minimum and not the actual RFA tender)
ERFA: Blackwell, Eiselen
Other: Scales, Houston-Carson, Blasingame, Adams, other vet min as needed

Extensions (my own estimates, not PFF)
Darnell Mooney - WR - 4y, 67M, 34 G, 8M s.b.
Cole Kmet - 4y, 56M, 32 G, 6M s.b.

This adds a very de-minimis current year additional hit of 2.8M, but additional cash of $14M which together with draft class and other minimum spending, should get them to where they need to be.

Looking ahead to 2024, they'd have about 89M in future guarantees committed, but most of those would be through 2024 only. With a cap likely to bump another 20M+, they'd still be a Jackson and Whitehair cut away (in 2024) from having another 60-70M of cap room - hopefully in preparation for some key extensions and to be fairly active in 2024 FA as needed.

Draft:
Trade 1.1 to Indy for 4, 35, 79, and 2024 FRP

1.4. Will Anderson - DE - Alabama
https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect ... 774d3aac6/
-This could easily be Carter as well. Or another Edge if they end up trading past 4. I think I like Anderson > Carter though. But its a deep edge class and there'd definitely be opportunity to still grab a good edge prospect later if they go Carter.

2.35. Josh Downs - WR - UNC
https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect ... aec5e7dad/
-Pure slot player, but has good contested catch stats, despite small size

2.54. John Michael Schmitz - IOL - Minnesota
https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect ... 330a595fa/
-Just a good value. With signing Pocic at C, I think one will be able to move to LG

3.64. Tuli Tuipulotu - DL - USC
https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect ... 1518d1376/
-May be able to provide versatility at DE and slide down to 3T.

3.79. Jordan Battle - S - Alabama
https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect ... 8ed0ae63c/
-Can you ever go wrong with Bama safeties?

4.103. Kendre Miller - HB - TCU
https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect ... 9598399f0/
- Should definitely add to RB room as I was unimpressed with Ebner and Evans is JAG

5.137. Riley Moss - CB - Iowa
https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect ... 3a2a99075/
- Some question is a move to safety is needed, but has good PFF grades. Probably other CB options too - and I think one other prospect is needed for the group.

5.150. Ivan Pace Jr - ILB - Cincinnati
https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect ... 17533c7cf/
- Really like the write-ups of this guy - especially in Rd 5. Biggest knock is height. Let him and Sanborn battle it out for Mike role.

7.199. Keytaon Thompson - WR -Virginia
https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect ... c1c738fd4/
- Just a flier on a versatile weapon. Project and likely Practice Squad candidate

7.220. Jaren Hall - QB - BYU
https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect ... ae403ff9a/
- Athletic and Toolsy QB prospect as possible long term backup, but needs at least a year on Practice Squad.

Final Depth (filled in with minimum depth pieces where needed)
QB- Fields - Sieman - Hall*
RB- Montgomery - Herbert - Evans - Miller* - Ebner
FB- Blasingame
TE- Kmet - Tonges
WRX- Claypool - St. Brown
WRZ- Mooney - Jones - Thompson*
Slot- Campbell+ - Downs*
LT- Jones - Leatherwood
LG- Schmitz* - Whitehair (likely cut or pay-reduction)
C- Pocic+ - Patrick - Mustipher - Kramer
RG- Jenkins - Carter - Eiselen
RT- McGlinchy+, Borom

DE- Anderson*, Key+, Ebukam+, Gipson, Robinson, Muhammad
DL- Tuipulotu*
NT- Payne+
DT- Allen+, Jones
WLB - Okereke+, Weatherford
MLB - Sanborn, Pace*
SAM - Adams
CB - Johnson, Gordon, Jones, Moss*
NB - Vildor, Blackwell (possibly Gordon bumped inside)
FS - Jackson, Battle*
SS - Brisker, Houston Carson, Hicks

Specialists: Scales, Santos, Gill. Velus Jones as KR - need to figure out a PR... Pettis might get a job back over St. Brown - or find a CB who can.

[dplank]

Nice work - deserves its own thread IMO

I’ve been thinking about Arden Key also

[The Cooler King]

Nice work - deserves its own thread IMO

I’ve been thinking about Arden Key also

Was trying to avoid unnecessary threads, but thanks.

It was a real midnight rager last night as I ignored my other responsibilities lol

[IE]

So... WOW that defense. I mean... that's potentially a superbowl defense IMO. So much upside & youth but a high floor.

Not to nitpick I think Morrow stays unless they think Sanborn is a clear starter and able to call the defense.

I hate to say it because I was excited to see him - but Ebner can move on IMO. I'd prefer another HBack or keep Wesco. Finding RBs who can come in and be productive is relatively easy. So to see a guy struggle like Ebner did is highly disappointing. On a really good run offense on top of it. I've seen enough.

How about one less center or grab Noah Gindorff instead of Thompson in the 7th as TE 3 and maybe even TE2. I really believe he might be an unpolished diamond and his production with Lance on really limited opportunity is intriguing. I wouldn't have ever heard of him if he didn't sort of pop out on Lance's hype videos. He's a pretty good blocker and perhaps underutilized in the pass game. If I had to pick out one guy who is sort of a nobody in college but will end up playing in the NFL, he's my choice.

DRAFTBUZZ PROFILE: BIO
In 2018 as a freshman Gindorff saw action in 8 games for the Bison as he made 10 receptions for a solid 170 yards for an average of 17.0 yards per reception, with 6 TDs, and an outstanding QB rating when targeted of 151.8. As a blocker he allowed no pressures and no sacks. He's going to run a 4.75-4.8 most likely. But many productive TEs do they just have a "knack".

- As a sophomore in 2019 he played 16 games and had just 11 catches for 87 yards for an average of 7.9 yards per catch, with 3 TDs, and a solid QB rating when targeted of 79.2. In pass protection he gave up one pressure and no sacks. As a pass blocker he gave up no pressures and no sacks.
- As a junior in 2020 he played 10 games and hauled in a solid 17 catches for a solid 193 yards for an average of 11.4 yards per catch, with 2 TDs, and an impressive QB rating when targeted of 97.1.
- As a senior in 2021 he played 12 games and had only 6 catches for only 74 yards for an average of 12.3 yards per catch, one TD, and an elite QB rating when targeted of 142.7. In pass protection he gave up 2 pressures and no sacks.

The sixth-year Senior finished his collegiate career with 44 receptions for 522 yards and 12 touchdowns. Gindorff battled injuries throughout his Bison career, including ending each of the past two seasons early with season-ending injuries. He won three National Championships during his playing career at NDSU.

As of right now Gindorff could be a late-round draft pick or get an opportunity to sign with a team as an undrafted free agent.