Possible Trade Scenarios for #1

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The Cooler King wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 6:39 pm Fire up the Hot Stove

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I love it. You know Indy and Houston are seeing this.
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Even if we weren't in the drivers seat at #1 this draft would be fascinating to me. Three teams who took developmental qb's last year (Tennessee, Washington and Carolina) are still constantly getting mentioned as teams that should pick a QB high this year. Especially Carolina and Tennessee spending 3rds, that pick should be a serviceable starter at the very least and you're conceding throwing away that pick if you aggressively go QB this year. It's a weird scenario to me.
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RustinFields wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:31 am Even if we weren't in the drivers seat at #1 this draft would be fascinating to me. Three teams who took developmental qb's last year (Tennessee, Washington and Carolina) are still constantly getting mentioned as teams that should pick a QB high this year. Especially Carolina and Tennessee spending 3rds, that pick should be a serviceable starter at the very least and you're conceding throwing away that pick if you aggressively go QB this year. It's a weird scenario to me.
It does seem sort of weird that Tennessee would be giving up on Willis so soon (though I can totally see Washington and Carolina giving up on their young guys).

Hmmm. What would a Titans trade look like? #11, #41, #149, '24 1st, '24 3rd? That takes you out of the running for Murphy...and it isn't TERRIBLE...but hopefully Poles can get a better deal. I think I could live with that trade, though.
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I have to imagine a year of time up close with these guys day in and day out tells you so much more than you had about them through the pre draft process. Can't hang onto bad decisions because they are sunk costs then and it really doesnt matter at that point if they were pick 80 or 200
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The Cooler King wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:18 am I have to imagine a year of time up close with these guys day in and day out tells you so much more than you had about them through the pre draft process. Can't hang onto bad decisions because they are sunk costs then and it really doesnt matter at that point if they were pick 80 or 200
True.

I thought Willis really had a chance, though. Although you never know, it's possible Tennessee wants Anderson, or something...
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Heinz D. wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:26 am
The Cooler King wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:18 am I have to imagine a year of time up close with these guys day in and day out tells you so much more than you had about them through the pre draft process. Can't hang onto bad decisions because they are sunk costs then and it really doesnt matter at that point if they were pick 80 or 200
True.

I thought Willis really had a chance, though. Although you never know, it's possible Tennessee wants Anderson, or something...
Willis was just wild because at one point he was getting Rd 1 and even top 10 hype.

It's funny how draft guys are always course correcting. The Willis hype was all about a belief that tools and projection rules all and that a shift was coming. And it deflated like a New England football.
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The Cooler King wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:53 am It's funny how draft guys are always course correcting. The Willis hype was all about a belief that tools and projection rules all and that a shift was coming. And it deflated like a New England football.
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Heinz D. wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:06 am
RustinFields wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:31 am Even if we weren't in the drivers seat at #1 this draft would be fascinating to me. Three teams who took developmental qb's last year (Tennessee, Washington and Carolina) are still constantly getting mentioned as teams that should pick a QB high this year. Especially Carolina and Tennessee spending 3rds, that pick should be a serviceable starter at the very least and you're conceding throwing away that pick if you aggressively go QB this year. It's a weird scenario to me.
It does seem sort of weird that Tennessee would be giving up on Willis so soon (though I can totally see Washington and Carolina giving up on their young guys).

Hmmm. What would a Titans trade look like? #11, #41, #149, '24 1st, '24 3rd? That takes you out of the running for Murphy...and it isn't TERRIBLE...but hopefully Poles can get a better deal. I think I could live with that trade, though.
They'd have to throw in a '25 1st rounder also.
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A ranking of the most likely teams to approach the Bears for a trade. Most throw in Tampa depending on how they solve the lack of Tom, the Cowboys because...Jerry....maybe the Commandos.

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/lists/be ... ns-ranked/
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Grizzled wrote: Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:56 am The perfect storm:

Chicago trades 1:1 to Hou for 1:2, 2:2 (34), 6:2(201), and a 2024 1st rounder

Chicago then trades 1:2 to Indy for 1:4, 2:4(36), 3:18 (79), 6:28 (228), 7:4 (222), and a 2024 1st rounder
Agreed that would be amazing. But how about THIS:

- Houston trades #2 and a few other picks for the #1 pick, nervous that someone jumps over them & they won't get their choice. (Houston picks Young, who measures right at 6' and wows in pro days)
- AZ surprises and moves in another direction from Kyler, out of injury and new system fit concerns... trading #3 plus a few picks to Chicago for #2 to keep Chicago from trading down further and having someone else jump over them. (AZ picks a more traditional pocket passer in Stroud)
- Chicago sitting at #3 is interested in QB suitors to trade above Indy, who played hardball earlier in trade overtures. Chicago finds the Panther calling to jump over#4 and have their pick. Panther trades #5 and picks to Chicago for #3 (Panther surprises and picks Richardson, who zooms up the mocks after pro days)
- Indy gets Levis at #4
- Bears at #5 pick Anderson or Carter, and the Football Gods have blessed them with 3 additional '23 2nd rounders, a couple of 3rd rounders and a handful of '24 picks as well.
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IE wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 3:45 pm
Grizzled wrote: Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:56 am The perfect storm:

Chicago trades 1:1 to Hou for 1:2, 2:2 (34), 6:2(201), and a 2024 1st rounder

Chicago then trades 1:2 to Indy for 1:4, 2:4(36), 3:18 (79), 6:28 (228), 7:4 (222), and a 2024 1st rounder
Agreed that would be amazing. But how about THIS:

- Houston trades #2 and a few other picks for the #1 pick, nervous that someone jumps over them & they won't get their choice. (Houston picks Young, who measures right at 6' and wows in pro days)
- AZ surprises and moves in another direction from Kyler, out of injury and new system fit concerns... trading #3 plus a few picks to Chicago for #2 to keep Chicago from trading down further and having someone else jump over them. (AZ picks a more traditional pocket passer in Stroud)
- Chicago sitting at #3 is interested in QB suitors to trade above Indy, who played hardball earlier in trade overtures. Chicago finds the Panther calling to jump over#4 and have their pick. Panther trades #5 and picks to Chicago for #3 (Panther surprises and picks Richardson, who zooms up the mocks after pro days)
- Indy gets Levis at #4
- Bears at #5 pick Anderson or Carter, and the Football Gods have blessed them with 3 additional '23 2nd rounders, a couple of 3rd rounders and a handful of '24 picks as well.
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IE wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 3:45 pm
Grizzled wrote: Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:56 am The perfect storm:

Chicago trades 1:1 to Hou for 1:2, 2:2 (34), 6:2(201), and a 2024 1st rounder

Chicago then trades 1:2 to Indy for 1:4, 2:4(36), 3:18 (79), 6:28 (228), 7:4 (222), and a 2024 1st rounder
Agreed that would be amazing. But how about THIS:

- Houston trades #2 and a few other picks for the #1 pick, nervous that someone jumps over them & they won't get their choice. (Houston picks Young, who measures right at 6' and wows in pro days)
- AZ surprises and moves in another direction from Kyler, out of injury and new system fit concerns... trading #3 plus a few picks to Chicago for #2 to keep Chicago from trading down further and having someone else jump over them. (AZ picks a more traditional pocket passer in Stroud)
- Chicago sitting at #3 is interested in QB suitors to trade above Indy, who played hardball earlier in trade overtures. Chicago finds the Panther calling to jump over#4 and have their pick. Panther trades #5 and picks to Chicago for #3 (Panther surprises and picks Richardson, who zooms up the mocks after pro days)
- Indy gets Levis at #4
- Bears at #5 pick Anderson or Carter, and the Football Gods have blessed them with 3 additional '23 2nd rounders, a couple of 3rd rounders and a handful of '24 picks as well.
As a fan, could definitely live with scenario. It's going to be getting more and more whacky mock draft-wise the closer we get to the draft.
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IE wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 3:45 pm
Grizzled wrote: Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:56 am The perfect storm:

Chicago trades 1:1 to Hou for 1:2, 2:2 (34), 6:2(201), and a 2024 1st rounder

Chicago then trades 1:2 to Indy for 1:4, 2:4(36), 3:18 (79), 6:28 (228), 7:4 (222), and a 2024 1st rounder
Agreed that would be amazing. But how about THIS:

- Houston trades #2 and a few other picks for the #1 pick, nervous that someone jumps over them & they won't get their choice. (Houston picks Young, who measures right at 6' and wows in pro days)
- AZ surprises and moves in another direction from Kyler, out of injury and new system fit concerns... trading #3 plus a few picks to Chicago for #2 to keep Chicago from trading down further and having someone else jump over them. (AZ picks a more traditional pocket passer in Stroud)
- Chicago sitting at #3 is interested in QB suitors to trade above Indy, who played hardball earlier in trade overtures. Chicago finds the Panther calling to jump over#4 and have their pick. Panther trades #5 and picks to Chicago for #3 (Panther surprises and picks Richardson, who zooms up the mocks after pro days)
- Indy gets Levis at #4
- Bears at #5 pick Anderson or Carter, and the Football Gods have blessed them with 3 additional '23 2nd rounders, a couple of 3rd rounders and a handful of '24 picks as well.
I assume you mean the Seahawks at 5, the Panthers are at 9.
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I think a lot depends on what we do in free agency - if we bolster the DL positions (say sign Payne and Dre'mont Jones), then I'm less worried about maintaining the Carter/Anderson Line (which is probably the Colts at 4) - and would consider other positions in R1 (OL, WR, etc).

There are a lot of IFs I would consider ....
If the Panthers would include DE Brian Burns in a deal, I would do a swap of 1s, their R2 and let them off the hook for next year's one. (Don't see the Panthers doing this).
If the Seahawks or Lions would give us both of their R1 picks this year, that's really intriguing to get 2023 value vs waiting for next year.
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wulfy wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:42 pm I think a lot depends on what we do in free agency - if we bolster the DL positions (say sign Payne and Dre'mont Jones), then I'm less worried about maintaining the Carter/Anderson Line (which is probably the Colts at 4) - and would consider other positions in R1 (OL, WR, etc).

There are a lot of IFs I would consider ....
If the Panthers would include DE Brian Burns in a deal, I would do a swap of 1s, their R2 and let them off the hook for next year's one. (Don't see the Panthers doing this).
If the Seahawks or Lions would give us both of their R1 picks this year, that's really intriguing to get 2023 value vs waiting for next year.
You're being shortsighted. We need a a top 5 pick in 24 so we can draft Marvin Harrison Jr.
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dave99 wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:55 pm
wulfy wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:42 pm I think a lot depends on what we do in free agency - if we bolster the DL positions (say sign Payne and Dre'mont Jones), then I'm less worried about maintaining the Carter/Anderson Line (which is probably the Colts at 4) - and would consider other positions in R1 (OL, WR, etc).

There are a lot of IFs I would consider ....
If the Panthers would include DE Brian Burns in a deal, I would do a swap of 1s, their R2 and let them off the hook for next year's one. (Don't see the Panthers doing this).
If the Seahawks or Lions would give us both of their R1 picks this year, that's really intriguing to get 2023 value vs waiting for next year.
You're being shortsighted. We need a a top 5 pick in 24 so we can draft Marvin Harrison Jr.
Game. Set. Match.
I would draft him 1:1 if he came out this year.
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1. Those who have argued that we need 2023 draft picks, so they can develop into productive players sooner rather than later because Fields is entering year 3 of his rookie deal is making sense to me the more I think about it.
2. It may mean nothing by draft day, but the rumor mill says that teams already talking to Poles aren't Houston or Indy. A lower than #4 deal would almost certainly involve a 2024 R1 pick or a wildly aggressive package of 2023 picks and player(s) to make it happen.
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Mikefive wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 10:51 am 1. Those who have argued that we need 2023 draft picks, so they can develop into productive players sooner rather than later because Fields is entering year 3 of his rookie deal is making sense to me the more I think about it.
2. It may mean nothing by draft day, but the rumor mill says that teams already talking to Poles aren't Houston or Indy. A lower than #4 deal would almost certainly involve a 2024 R1 pick or a wildly aggressive package of 2023 picks and player(s) to make it happen.
Tennessee has been identified as one of the two teams (assuming you believe any of this). That's a hell of a drop. The Bears would need an absolute haul of picks and players to drop that far. Even if the Titans gave up half of their draft, they'd still need to give up a first in 2024 and probably 2025 to meet the value.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:29 pm
IE wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 3:45 pm

Agreed that would be amazing. But how about THIS:

- Houston trades #2 and a few other picks for the #1 pick, nervous that someone jumps over them & they won't get their choice. (Houston picks Young, who measures right at 6' and wows in pro days)
- AZ surprises and moves in another direction from Kyler, out of injury and new system fit concerns... trading #3 plus a few picks to Chicago for #2 to keep Chicago from trading down further and having someone else jump over them. (AZ picks a more traditional pocket passer in Stroud)
- Chicago sitting at #3 is interested in QB suitors to trade above Indy, who played hardball earlier in trade overtures. Chicago finds the Panther calling to jump over#4 and have their pick. Panther trades #5 and picks to Chicago for #3 (Panther surprises and picks Richardson, who zooms up the mocks after pro days)
- Indy gets Levis at #4
- Bears at #5 pick Anderson or Carter, and the Football Gods have blessed them with 3 additional '23 2nd rounders, a couple of 3rd rounders and a handful of '24 picks as well.
I assume you mean the Seahawks at 5, the Panthers are at 9.
Yep - sorry. I think they're going to extend Geno but when will they have a chance to pick a QB at the top of the draft again? Won't cost too much to jump 5 to 3.
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Based on what ESPN draft insider Matt Miller has heard, it might not be as steep as many believed.

“MULTIPLE TEAMS IN THE TOP 10 COULD TRY TO MOVE UP TO NO. 1 OVERALL TO LAND THEIR QUARTERBACK OF CHOICE, AND THE BEARS — WHO ALREADY HAVE JUSTIN FIELDS — CERTAINLY SHOULD BE LISTENING TO OFFERS. IN THIS SCENARIO (his paywalled mock draft), THE COLTS TAKE THE PLUNGE, SENDING THE BEARS THE NOS. 4 AND 35 PICKS, A FOURTH-ROUNDER AND A 2024 THIRD-ROUNDER TO JUMP TO THE TOP.

I SPOKE TO A FEW PEOPLE IN THE LEAGUE FOR CONTEXT ON WHAT MIGHT SEEM LIKE A FAIR DEAL, AND THIS FITS FOR BOTH FRANCHISES. INDY CAN GET ITS SIGNAL-CALLER, AND CHICAGO SHOULD STILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO LAND A TOP DEFENDER WHILE ADDING A HAUL OF DRAFT ASSETS, INCLUDING A VALUABLE SECOND-ROUNDER.”


Incoming rage in 3...2...1...




Now, I think it's light, too. But not as much as some people who've gotten overly big dreams.

This deal is 1.4, 2.35, 4.104ish, 2024 R3. Usually when I've been doing Colt trade in mocks, I've been asking/accepting somewhere around
1.4, 2.35, 3.67, 4.104ish, 2024 R3, 2024 R4

It's not that far off, but anything that doesn't include R2, R3, R4 (or better) this year (unless it involves a shitload in the future) is a nonstarter for me.

Hope the price won't be a big disappointment, because I feel like I've been keeping expectations very modest already.
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Moriarty wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 3:20 pm
Based on what ESPN draft insider Matt Miller has heard, it might not be as steep as many believed.

“MULTIPLE TEAMS IN THE TOP 10 COULD TRY TO MOVE UP TO NO. 1 OVERALL TO LAND THEIR QUARTERBACK OF CHOICE, AND THE BEARS — WHO ALREADY HAVE JUSTIN FIELDS — CERTAINLY SHOULD BE LISTENING TO OFFERS. IN THIS SCENARIO (his paywalled mock draft), THE COLTS TAKE THE PLUNGE, SENDING THE BEARS THE NOS. 4 AND 35 PICKS, A FOURTH-ROUNDER AND A 2024 THIRD-ROUNDER TO JUMP TO THE TOP.

I SPOKE TO A FEW PEOPLE IN THE LEAGUE FOR CONTEXT ON WHAT MIGHT SEEM LIKE A FAIR DEAL, AND THIS FITS FOR BOTH FRANCHISES. INDY CAN GET ITS SIGNAL-CALLER, AND CHICAGO SHOULD STILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO LAND A TOP DEFENDER WHILE ADDING A HAUL OF DRAFT ASSETS, INCLUDING A VALUABLE SECOND-ROUNDER.”


Incoming rage in 3...2...1...




Now, I think it's light, too. But not as much as some people who've gotten overly big dreams.

This deal is 1.4, 2.35, 4.104ish, 2024 R3. Usually when I've been doing Colt trade in mocks, I've been asking/accepting somewhere around
1.4, 2.35, 3.67, 4.104ish, 2024 R3, 2024 R4

It's not that far off, but anything that doesn't include R2, R3, R4 (or better) this year (unless it involves a shitload in the future) is a nonstarter for me.

Hope the price won't be a big disappointment, because I feel like I've been keeping expectations very modest already.
I don't think a trade down is coming. I just don't see a reason for teams to want to move up.

I'm happy to be wrong about this, mind you.
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This package from the Colts is similar to what we've seen around a few times: #1 is worth a top 5 and 3x top 100 picks. 4, 35, 104, and 95ish (2024) fits that rubric

Also, I want to remind everyone again that the NFL insiders did not have Pickett and Willis going high. This year everyone is saying there will be top 5 Qbs. If you're saying that nobody wants to draft Bryce Young top 5 you are 100% guessing and going against people who 1) watch lots of tape 2) know NFL staffs who leak their values

DJ was off by like 10 picks in both cases
https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremia ... mong-3-qbs

Mel's first one is behind a paywall but I bet he didn't have top 5 QBs and his last mock had Pickett and Willis going 19 and 20. Not top 5.
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Moriarty wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 3:20 pm
Based on what ESPN draft insider Matt Miller has heard, it might not be as steep as many believed.

“MULTIPLE TEAMS IN THE TOP 10 COULD TRY TO MOVE UP TO NO. 1 OVERALL TO LAND THEIR QUARTERBACK OF CHOICE, AND THE BEARS — WHO ALREADY HAVE JUSTIN FIELDS — CERTAINLY SHOULD BE LISTENING TO OFFERS. IN THIS SCENARIO (his paywalled mock draft), THE COLTS TAKE THE PLUNGE, SENDING THE BEARS THE NOS. 4 AND 35 PICKS, A FOURTH-ROUNDER AND A 2024 THIRD-ROUNDER TO JUMP TO THE TOP.

I SPOKE TO A FEW PEOPLE IN THE LEAGUE FOR CONTEXT ON WHAT MIGHT SEEM LIKE A FAIR DEAL, AND THIS FITS FOR BOTH FRANCHISES. INDY CAN GET ITS SIGNAL-CALLER, AND CHICAGO SHOULD STILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO LAND A TOP DEFENDER WHILE ADDING A HAUL OF DRAFT ASSETS, INCLUDING A VALUABLE SECOND-ROUNDER.”


Incoming rage in 3...2...1...




Now, I think it's light, too. But not as much as some people who've gotten overly big dreams.

This deal is 1.4, 2.35, 4.104ish, 2024 R3. Usually when I've been doing Colt trade in mocks, I've been asking/accepting somewhere around
1.4, 2.35, 3.67, 4.104ish, 2024 R3, 2024 R4

It's not that far off, but anything that doesn't include R2, R3, R4 (or better) this year (unless it involves a shitload in the future) is a nonstarter for me.

Hope the price won't be a big disappointment, because I feel like I've been keeping expectations very modest already.
I have a feeling that if the Bears do indeed trade down to 4, people are going to say Poles got fleeced.
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IE wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 11:33 am Yep - sorry. I think they're going to extend Geno but when will they have a chance to pick a QB at the top of the draft again? Won't cost too much to jump 5 to 3.
It'll certainly be interesting to see what they do. I suppose a lot depends on whether they want to use the Wilson trade to get another QB. Smith isn't a spring chicken...but I do tend to think that they stick with him as well. Although it's definitely possible that they want Young, or Stroud, instead.

And I doubt the Cardinals would trade with the Seahawks...
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You can count on not all people agreeing with just about any outcome. Personally I am fine with a fairly limited return in order to stay in the top 4. The deal mentioned in the post does feel light to me though, and my preference would be to take more/higher 2024 picks vs later round 2023 picks.
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No I don’t think Poles and team will get fleeced, but having said that you can only accept the best deal on the table.
Poles will have to weigh the deal up vs missing out on his favourite player.

I still want to see some players involved in a trade up.
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He’s 32. If they believe he can lead them to a Super Bowl then age is zero factor and spending a high pick on a QB would be a big mistake. He will be able to play at his current level for a 4-5 year contract term.

The only question IMO is if they believe he can lead them to a Super Bowl or not.
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i'd be thrilled with that colts hypothetical. still get carter/anderson, a high second, plus two other valuable picks? sign me up.
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IE wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 11:33 am
Arkansasbear wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:29 pm
I assume you mean the Seahawks at 5, the Panthers are at 9.
Yep - sorry. I think they're going to extend Geno but when will they have a chance to pick a QB at the top of the draft again? Won't cost too much to jump 5 to 3.
I don't believe for two seconds that Seattle is committed to Geno long term. Given the Broncos terrible year, the Seahawks are sitting near the top of the draft, a position they won't be in next year. This is their chance to grab Wilson 2.0. I have no doubt that they will be offering up their two first round picks and some others to get to the top.
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