A PFF Fancy Chart ..

[dave99]

..that pretty much tells us what we already know

[crueltyabc]

The Lions stand out to me here as a team that has great potential to ascend because they have a better roster today than the others in that tier

[dplank]

The Lions stand out to me here as a team that has great potential to ascend because they have a better roster today than the others in that tier

Agree, and I'd add the Seahawks to that list as well.

[IE]

Wonder if draft capital is # of picks or value of picks

[Middleguard]

I'd like to know how they equated draft picks to the $ of cap and restructuring.

[crueltyabc]

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-evaluating ... -offseason

[dave99]

Wonder if draft capital is # of picks or value of picks

The PFF draft value chart estimates the value of a draft pick by projecting the amount of PFF WAR (wins above replacement) a player drafted at that pick generates during his first four years — the length of the rookie contract —on average

[dave99]

I'd like to know how they equated draft picks to the $ of cap and restructuring.

Draft capital and effective cap space are normalized to a number between 0 and 1, while restructure potential is normalized to a scale between 0 and 0.5 to account for our earlier assumption that it’s valued at half as much as effective cap space. We can then add up the normalized numbers for each team and end up with a final ranking.

[IE]

Wonder if draft capital is # of picks or value of picks

The PFF draft value chart estimates the value of a draft pick by projecting the amount of PFF WAR (wins above replacement) a player drafted at that pick generates during his first four years — the length of the rookie contract —on average

Thanks. So they dont' use the classic Dallas points chart but something similar in effect.

i wonder what the WAR figure is for that top 2nd rounder versus Claypool's individual WAR. I'm still a fan of that trade but do acknowledge they likely didn't think they'd be picking where they are at the time, and that *may* have factored into the decision (but also maybe not as the market is what it is).

[IE]

I'd like to know how they equated draft picks to the $ of cap and restructuring.

Draft capital and effective cap space are normalized to a number between 0 and 1, while restructure potential is normalized to a scale between 0 and 0.5 to account for our earlier assumption that it’s valued at half as much as effective cap space. We can then add up the normalized numbers for each team and end up with a final ranking.

So they didn't make one a function of the other - they're just individual independent measures & then consolidated into a total score.

[The Cooler King]

I'd like to know how they equated draft picks to the $ of cap and restructuring.

Draft capital and effective cap space are normalized to a number between 0 and 1, while restructure potential is normalized to a scale between 0 and 0.5 to account for our earlier assumption that it’s valued at half as much as effective cap space. We can then add up the normalized numbers for each team and end up with a final ranking.

Obviously a lot of assumptions in there on how to scale. I get why, but these scale adjustments always feel a little arbitrary.

[Grizzled]

The Lions stand out to me here as a team that has great potential to ascend because they have a better roster today than the others in that tier

Seahawks are also sitting decent if they can sign Geno to a contract.

[Arkansasbear]

The Lions stand out to me here as a team that has great potential to ascend because they have a better roster today than the others in that tier

Seahawks are also sitting decent if they can sign Geno to a contract.

The Seahawks are a team I don't know what they should do. They have a very solid roster I think both short and long term. Solid play from the QB spot and they will be in the hunt again next year. Did Geno finally "get it" or was it fluke.

Since I think they are built to win now and in the future if they get the QB spot right, if I was them, I'd make a run at Jimmy G or maybe Carr to help them win right now. But I'd tell them we have to address the spot down the road and we play on getting a QB early. The issue is getting one of those guys to agree to a contract that has an out after 3 years so that if the guy they draft is ready, they can part ways.

[Middleguard]

Obviously a lot of assumptions in there on how to scale. I get why, but these scale adjustments always feel a little arbitrary.

I get it, Texans' draft portion of their bar is longest (157mm on my screen) because they have the most F-S pts. The Bears have a 157mm cap portion because they have the most cap. But it's silly to link the bars together that way.

The equal length ofTexans' draft and Bears' cap implies that a F-S pt is worth $10K and a mm on my screen is worth $630K.

The Bears' draft portion is 106mm, worth $66.7M or 6695 F-S pts, but the Bears actually have 7252 F-S pts. And the Texans have a 90mm cap portion, worth $56.7M, but they actually only have $34.3M. So not every team's cap dollar is worth the same and not every team's draft pts are worth the same.

[Moriarty]

Draft capital measurements seem to match this (which is value based) closely, if not exactly:


https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/power_rankings

[The Cooler King]

Obviously a lot of assumptions in there on how to scale. I get why, but these scale adjustments always feel a little arbitrary.

I get it, Texans' draft portion of their bar is longest (157mm on my screen) because they have the most F-S pts. The Bears have a 157mm cap portion because they have the most cap. But it's silly to link the bars together that way.

The equal length ofTexans' draft and Bears' cap implies that a F-S pt is worth $10K and a mm on my screen is worth $630K.

The Bears' draft portion is 106mm, worth $66.7M or 6695 F-S pts, but the Bears actually have 7252 F-S pts. And the Texans have a 90mm cap portion, worth $56.7M, but they actually only have $34.3M. So not every team's cap dollar is worth the same and not every team's draft pts are worth the same.

This, but also that the restructure potential being weighted at 0.5

Why?

Because we don't like restructures!

But its a fundamental logic error anyways. I can have a cap number that is already reflective of restructure-like structuring which doesn't mean my responsible buying power, or whatever you want to call it is greater. But because I structured it that way a year ago its automatically "good space". But if I restructure now its "bad" space and weighted 0.5.

/rant over

[Grizzled]

Seahawks are also sitting decent if they can sign Geno to a contract.

The Seahawks are a team I don't know what they should do. They have a very solid roster I think both short and long term. Solid play from the QB spot and they will be in the hunt again next year. Did Geno finally "get it" or was it fluke.

Since I think they are built to win now and in the future if they get the QB spot right, if I was them, I'd make a run at Jimmy G or maybe Carr to help them win right now. But I'd tell them we have to address the spot down the road and we play on getting a QB early. The issue is getting one of those guys to agree to a contract that has an out after 3 years so that if the guy they draft is ready, they can part ways.

The last time the 'Hawks signed a high-priced (for the time) free agent QB, they drafted Wilson in the 3rd round and he won the job in training camp. Signing Geno or Jimmy G. (who'd be my choice if he comes in at the less than expected $35M for Geno and also plays the way Carroll likes) is no guarantee that guy wins the starting job.

[Arkansasbear]

The Seahawks are a team I don't know what they should do. They have a very solid roster I think both short and long term. Solid play from the QB spot and they will be in the hunt again next year. Did Geno finally "get it" or was it fluke.

Since I think they are built to win now and in the future if they get the QB spot right, if I was them, I'd make a run at Jimmy G or maybe Carr to help them win right now. But I'd tell them we have to address the spot down the road and we play on getting a QB early. The issue is getting one of those guys to agree to a contract that has an out after 3 years so that if the guy they draft is ready, they can part ways.

The last time the 'Hawks signed a high-priced (for the time) free agent QB, they drafted Wilson in the 3rd round and he won the job in training camp. Signing Geno or Jimmy G. (who'd be my choice if he comes in at the less than expected $35M for Geno and also plays the way Carroll likes) is no guarantee that guy wins the starting job.

Boom. Great point. I guess when I said he would sit for a few years, that is what the team would like to see happen, but reality can set in and force them to change course.

[Grizzled]

The last time the 'Hawks signed a high-priced (for the time) free agent QB, they drafted Wilson in the 3rd round and he won the job in training camp. Signing Geno or Jimmy G. (who'd be my choice if he comes in at the less than expected $35M for Geno and also plays the way Carroll likes) is no guarantee that guy wins the starting job.

Boom. Great point. I guess when I said he would sit for a few years, that is what the team would like to see happen, but reality can set in and force them to change course.

No sacred cows on the Seahawks, they live competition at all positions.