9th Pick

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cblaz11
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I’m 100% convinced we’re going edge rusher at 9. I don’t see Poles taking a guy that will end up playing RT for us 9th overall..Not that I don’t love Paris Johnson, I just think Poles thinks he can find a RT later. With that said, what are your thoughts on the guys below assuming a trade back isn’t an option.

Will Anderson- I just don’t see it…but if he drops to 6 I wouldn’t hate a small trade up

Tyree Wilson- Most think he’s gone, but after a couple mocks, I see a way he might make it to 9

Myles Murphy- I love the kid until I look at all the Clemson pass rusher that haven’t panned out. Is that fair to hold it against him?

Lukas Van Ness- I have a strange feeling that he’s the guy Poles wants. High motor, high traits, HIGH ceiling

Nolan Smith- I love this kid…most say he can’t play 4-3 end, I disagree. Plenty of his snaps came with his hand in the dirt. Also, he’s got the frame to add 10lbs….

My prediction…one of these 5 end up a Bear. Thoughts?
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At this time I really like the idea of trading back and hopefully picking up additional capital somewhere early in the second round. IF we pick at 9, I like Wilson in that group. I still wonder if Carter has good interviews with the team if he will be an option or not at 9 as well.
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cblaz11 wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:34 am I’m 100% convinced we’re going edge rusher at 9. I don’t see Poles taking a guy that will end up playing RT for us 9th overall..Not that I don’t love Paris Johnson, I just think Poles thinks he can find a RT later. With that said, what are your thoughts on the guys below assuming a trade back isn’t an option.

Will Anderson- I just don’t see it…but if he drops to 6 I wouldn’t hate a small trade up

Tyree Wilson- Most think he’s gone, but after a couple mocks, I see a way he might make it to 9

Myles Murphy- I love the kid until I look at all the Clemson pass rusher that haven’t panned out. Is that fair to hold it against him?

Lukas Van Ness- I have a strange feeling that he’s the guy Poles wants. High motor, high traits, HIGH ceiling

Nolan Smith- I love this kid…most say he can’t play 4-3 end, I disagree. Plenty of his snaps came with his hand in the dirt. Also, he’s got the frame to add 10lbs….

My prediction…one of these 5 end up a Bear. Thoughts?
Anderson should be gone, and I think he'd be better suited for a 3-4 OLB anyway.
Wilson seems like a beast but might be destined to go right before us.
Murphy is part of a great D line. Seems like one of those guys always has a chance at a cleanup sack after someone else got pressure. It's hard for these guys to go into the NFL and be the man when they were a collective "man"
Van Ness and Smith are good prospects, but 9 seems a little high for them. I'm not opposed to a reach, but if there's a better prospect graded higher, I don't see Poles reaching for a position of need when he can get a stub at another position. Gordon and Brisker last year were at the top of their board so we grabbed them.
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Nolan Smith is a textbook 3-4 LB and I don't see him fitting as a 4-3 DE.

9 does feel a little high to me for Van Ness, but I also think he is rated higher by NFL teams than a lot of internet draft pundits. And he does have rare traits.

I have Murphy as a fringe Day 1 guy myself. Again, the NFL may be higher on him than that.
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I think you're right. Van Ness has ties to Chicago and the Bears.
He has been compared to Howie Long and Justin Smith.
Like Walker, you can move him around to create mismatches.

From the Draft Network
There’s so much to like about Van Ness and it starts with his functional strength. His ability to convert speed to power and play through blockers is outstanding. He maximizes his ability to bull rush and collapse the pocket with plus length, timing, and functional power to truly stress the anchor of offensive linemen. For a player of his body composition, I’m surprised by how much burst and flexibility he has to get off the ball, corner, flatten, and close.
https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect ... 5c4b81a48/

#9 might be a bit high but I don't think he will make it out of the top 15 so a trade down is risky, unless there is a viable 1A.

I had this pipe dream about a trade down with the Steelers who still need a LT, recovering our #2 and still getting Van Ness, but I am sure it will stay a pipe dream.
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Van Ness seems like a logical pick.
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Anderson and Wilson have been my top 2 since the draft talk started, and I haven't had anything change my mind yet. Even before the legal issues, I wasn't a Carter guy at all. When I watch him, I just see a very talented guy that lacks effort and consistency to be "great". Seems to just let his talent do the job and not work at getting better.

I also don't get the Van Ness love. Another guy who has talent but he seems to lack playing smarts and consistency. Dude never started a game for Iowa and had 19 friggn tackles on the year (or something like that). I am scared to death of this guy being our pick at 9. Workout warrior, who has athleticism, is all I see. No production on the field.

My top 5 at #9 are:

Anderson
Wilson
Paris Johnson
Skoronski
Myles Murphy

If we drop down again then add in Kancey, Darnell Wright, and Anton Harrison.
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Van Ness' starts (or lack thereof) are largely Kirk Ferentz-related. He's also played more than 450 snaps each of the last two seasons, which isn't quite starter level (typically 525+) but also isn't as light as one might think for a guy who didn't start.

Van Ness is absolutely a calculated risk, as are all draft picks. But I'm a fan.
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Whoever the pick is, they're going to have a very high RAS. I wouldn't be shocked if Poles went CB at 9, if he thinks whoever is on the board is worth it. I would be surprised if he picked someone like Skoronski - just doesn't seem like his type (measurables) and I agree that I think Poles likes to find OL in later rounds.

I do think he'll be looking at trading back a few spots to acquire another pick. I am guessing he'd like to have a higher second round pick than he does currently, and might be able to get it outright here or get a pick he can package with others to move up.
Last edited by LacertineForest on Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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I’m coming around to Van Ness. My initial thought was he seemed like a Phil Emory type pick, but Inthink he’s better than just a combine star. Nolan Smith is my biggest fear - he’s a freak physically but doesn’t look like a natural DE, I really hope Poles stays away from him. I’d rather take my chances on Carter honestly.

I would prefer our high pick go to DL and get our RT in Rd 2, but it really depends on how Poles has those 3 OTs rated - if one of them rates significantly higher than Van Ness then he’s gotta take him.
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I'm not sure who would be trading up to 9 for the sake of trading up unless Jalen Carter is there and some team is infatuated with him, but that seems iffy at best.

Otherwise at nine, here's who would be available, more than likely:

- Devon Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez
- Peter Skoronski
- Paris Johnson
- Quentin Johnston
- Broderick Jones
- Lucas Van Ness

Tyree Wilson is a big maybe, but if he's there at 9, gotta think they'll pull the trigger. You won't find better value at 9 than Wilson.

Broderick Jones is my sleeper for the 9th pick, but Paris Johnson wouldn't surprise me either. Jones feels more like the pick, as he's arguably the most athletic and versatile lineman of the bunch.

Van Ness feels like a major project who makes more sense as a late 1st/early 2nd pick, but will get overdrafted. I don't really get the hype with him, especially as a top 10 pick. Pass.
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Van Ness is not a top-10 palyer in this draft. When we start going for need over talent we lose. That is what Ryan Pace did. Ryan Poles luckily for us does not operate that way. He will take his guy he has already ear marked since day 1 of this draft. It is why he kept telling us how far he goes down matters. He has had somebody earmarked since day one. Wi9th a back up plan to the back up plan depending how this draft plays out.
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I think Poles doesn't see anyone who will be there to be significantly better than guys he can land later in the round.

I also think Philly is going to go CB to replace what they have lost.

So I think we will be sitting in another prime spot to trade down to teams that want to land the guy they view as CB1 of the draft.

I think we drop back to 12-15 and get Van Ness there and get additional picks - something Poles great wants. I could see him wanting a 3 this year and 2 or3 in '24.
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UOK wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:46 am I'm not sure who would be trading up to 9 for the sake of trading up unless Jalen Carter is there and some team is infatuated with him, but that seems iffy at best.

Otherwise at nine, here's who would be available, more than likely:

- Devon Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez
- Peter Skoronski
- Paris Johnson
- Quentin Johnston
- Broderick Jones
- Lucas Van Ness

Tyree Wilson is a big maybe, but if he's there at 9, gotta think they'll pull the trigger. You won't find better value at 9 than Wilson.

Broderick Jones is my sleeper for the 9th pick, but Paris Johnson wouldn't surprise me either. Jones feels more like the pick, as he's arguably the most athletic and versatile lineman of the bunch.

Van Ness feels like a major project who makes more sense as a late 1st/early 2nd pick, but will get overdrafted. I don't really get the hype with him, especially as a top 10 pick. Pass.
I've said it a few times, I think it will be some team that wants to leapfrog Philly to get the top CB as it's looking like they will be the first team to go that route.
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UOK
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Arkansasbear wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:49 am
UOK wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:46 am I'm not sure who would be trading up to 9 for the sake of trading up unless Jalen Carter is there and some team is infatuated with him, but that seems iffy at best.

Otherwise at nine, here's who would be available, more than likely:

- Devon Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez
- Peter Skoronski
- Paris Johnson
- Quentin Johnston
- Broderick Jones
- Lucas Van Ness

Tyree Wilson is a big maybe, but if he's there at 9, gotta think they'll pull the trigger. You won't find better value at 9 than Wilson.

Broderick Jones is my sleeper for the 9th pick, but Paris Johnson wouldn't surprise me either. Jones feels more like the pick, as he's arguably the most athletic and versatile lineman of the bunch.

Van Ness feels like a major project who makes more sense as a late 1st/early 2nd pick, but will get overdrafted. I don't really get the hype with him, especially as a top 10 pick. Pass.
I've said it a few times, I think it will be some team that wants to leapfrog Philly to get the top CB as it's looking like they will be the first team to go that route.
Wouldn't Detroit be a prime candidate for a corner early?
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Don't think it will be an OT. With 2 2nd rounders and then the first pick in the 3rd, I see Poles reaching for the Braxton Jones' magic at OT with one of those picks. Seems too high for Myles Murphy, Bryan Bresee, and Nolan Smith. Calijah Kancey doesn't meet their physical standards. So, Wilson if he falls. Van Ness. Perhaps a CB, Poles values them highly. I don't think Carter's in the equation but then I thought Poles' was going a different direction in free agency also.
Last edited by Grizzled on Fri Mar 17, 2023 3:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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UOK wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:50 am
Arkansasbear wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:49 am
I've said it a few times, I think it will be some team that wants to leapfrog Philly to get the top CB as it's looking like they will be the first team to go that route.
Wouldn't Detroit be a prime candidate for a corner early?
They could for sure, but there are just so many DL guys I think are more highly rated than the CBs, that a likely move for them. I know they have some talent on their DL, but you can't have enough good DL guys (I guess same goes for CBs as well). It's clearly a draft day move. Even if the Lions go CB, a team may still want to get ahead of Philly to get their CB before Philly does.

But most of my theories never pan out, so I say all that with a grain of salt.
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I think it’s better than 50% the #9 pick ends up being a trade down to grab another 2nd & possibly 3rd.
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Everybody is looking for the next Micah Parsons.
So Smith will be probably get over drafted.
That is, unless he really is the next Parsons.
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I see the draft going like this

1) CAR: CJ Stroud
2) HOU: Bryce Young
3) ARZ: Will Anderson, Jr
4) IND: Anthony Richardson
5) SEA: Tyree Wilson (Seattle only has 2 DEs on the roster currently)
6) DET: Christian Gonzalez
7) LVG: Paris Johnson
8) ATL: Jordan Addison

That makes your options Jalen Carter, Myles Murphy, Broderick Jones, or Van Ness; probably in that order.
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It could be two guys who fit the mold to a Tee.

1. Jalen Carter- hated the thought at number 1,2 or 4 in this draft. I would take him at 9 though and not look back. Assuming he answers all the questions about him to Poles satisfaction.

2. Bryan Breese- I personally like this kid more than I liked Carter. He is one year away from knee surgery so his best football is going to start this year. The only problem with this kid is he has been hurt the last 2 years in College. Availability matters. Ask any Lakers fan( A. Davis) or Charger fan ( Bosa). If he passes the medical questions then this might have been our guy since day 1.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:56 am
UOK wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:50 am

Wouldn't Detroit be a prime candidate for a corner early?
They could for sure, but there are just so many DL guys I think are more highly rated than the CBs, that a likely move for them. I know they have some talent on their DL, but you can't have enough good DL guys (I guess same goes for CBs as well). It's clearly a draft day move. Even if the Lions go CB, a team may still want to get ahead of Philly to get their CB before Philly does.

But most of my theories never pan out, so I say all that with a grain of salt.
Elite CBs are harder to find than DL. Even after FA Sutton signing, they need another CB desperately. Okuduh is bad.

I think if they don't take Carter (and they may really be turned off by his pro day holy crap), I think they'll go CB first and pick DL with their other first rounder. I hope not Witherspoon - I hope they take Gonzalez and Spoon drops to the Bears who also really need an elite CB even though nobody talks about it.
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UOK wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:46 amI'm not sure who would be trading up to 9 for the sake of trading up unless Jalen Carter is there and some team is infatuated with him, but that seems iffy at best.
I think a QB-needy team could move up to grab Levis or Richardson if one of them are on the board (TEN at 11 or WAS at 16 for example). If one of them isn't available, that means only four non-QBs have been drafted, leaving a strong possibility that someone will want the top WR, CB, Carter, or whoever is left.
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EricTighe wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 9:08 am It could be two guys who fit the mold to a Tee.

1. Jalen Carter- hated the thought at number 1,2 or 4 in this draft. I would take him at 9 though and not look back. Assuming he answers all the questions about him to Poles satisfaction.

2. Bryan Breese- I personally like this kid more than I liked Carter. He is one year away from knee surgery so his best football is going to start this year. The only problem with this kid is he has been hurt the last 2 years in College. Availability matters. Ask any Lakers fan( A. Davis) or Charger fan ( Bosa). If he passes the medical questions then this might have been our guy since day 1.
I just don't know how a team could justify spending a top 10 pick on Carter after his pro day. Potentially the biggest day of his live and he shows up in such poor shape he can't even complete his drills!?!?!? Just too many flags on him for me.
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IE wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 9:18 am
Arkansasbear wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:56 am

They could for sure, but there are just so many DL guys I think are more highly rated than the CBs, that a likely move for them. I know they have some talent on their DL, but you can't have enough good DL guys (I guess same goes for CBs as well). It's clearly a draft day move. Even if the Lions go CB, a team may still want to get ahead of Philly to get their CB before Philly does.

But most of my theories never pan out, so I say all that with a grain of salt.
Elite CBs are harder to find than DL. Even after FA Sutton signing, they need another CB desperately. Okuduh is bad.

I think if they don't take Carter (and they may really be turned off by his pro day holy crap), I think they'll go CB first and pick DL with their other first rounder. I hope not Witherspoon - I hope they take Gonzalez and Spoon drops to the Bears who also really need an elite CB even though nobody talks about it.
I hope they think they can make the most out of Carter and take him. Then he turns out to be the turd I think he is.
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I would not be opposed to a CB at #9. I love the Witherspoon kid and the others. That would give us a hell of a DB field.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 9:59 am
IE wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 9:18 am

Elite CBs are harder to find than DL. Even after FA Sutton signing, they need another CB desperately. Okuduh is bad.

I think if they don't take Carter (and they may really be turned off by his pro day holy crap), I think they'll go CB first and pick DL with their other first rounder. I hope not Witherspoon - I hope they take Gonzalez and Spoon drops to the Bears who also really need an elite CB even though nobody talks about it.
I hope they think they can make the most out of Carter and take him. Then he turns out to be the turd I think he is.
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I would prefer Paris Johnson at 9, if he's gone, I would probably trade down. Hopefully get more draft capital.
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UOK wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:46 am I'm not sure who would be trading up to 9 for the sake of trading up unless Jalen Carter is there and some team is infatuated with him, but that seems iffy at best.
Lately WR have been the popular trade up target for non-QBs. That could defintiely be the first WR off the spot area and a team with a big Flowers v JSN v QJ preference to make an aggressive move.

Tennessee? Baltimore? New York Giants? LA Chargers (have good WR but need youth)
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UOK wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:46 am Broderick Jones is my sleeper for the 9th pick, but Paris Johnson wouldn't surprise me either. Jones feels more like the pick, as he's arguably the most athletic and versatile lineman of the bunch.
Broderick Jones is my hope for the #9 pick, if they grab him I will be very happy. Paris Johnson is my #2 and i'd also be very happy, but not to quiet the same extent as Jones.
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