Exposing the Forty Fallacy

[Yogi da Bear]

The 40-yard dash is undeniably the most often cited athletic test with respect to NFL Draft Prospects, including by me. But the 40 is often misleading as hell. Devin Hester, for instance, was timed at 4.43 at the Combine, but on the field, he certainly seemed much faster than that. I know I never saw him caught from behind. Not ever. You'd think at some point in his career, a player in the 4.3s would have done that. But it never happened, not that I witnessed.

But going over our recent FA RB signings, the fallacy of the 40 became even more apparent. Looking at the film, Homer seems so much faster than Foreman, who appears more lumbering with a lot more power. Take a look for yourself and see what you think:





Wanting to see how much faster Homer was, I looked it up. Imagine my surprise when I found out that Foreman actually had a faster 40--4.46 to 4.48. Now normally when I find that kind of discrepancy, I immediately look to the 20 yard shuttle and the 3 cone to determine quickness. So imagine my further surprise when Foreman's shuttle was also faster than Homer's--4.29 to 4.31.

Then I noticed the 10-yard split, and it explained everything. Homer was much faster--1.57 to 1.63. He was also considerably quicker in the Cone--7.07 to 7.21. That still left the shuttle, and sure enough, at 20 yards, Foreman was faster than Homer--2.57 to 2.61. But how often does anybody but WRs run more than 20 yards at top speed let alone 40? I can't imagine what the Shuttle is supposed to test other than a change of direction at top speed. Really only applicable to WRs in running routes.

So if you really want to determine a player's "football" speed, you should concentrate on his 10 yard split and barring that, his three cone, which shows a more limited area change of direction speed. This is most especially true of offensive and defensive linemen.

Just some highlights as I reviewed clips of our new acquisitions. Both of whom I really like and who seem to complement each other.

[The Marshall Plan]

IMHO, the combine in it's entirety is nothing more than a popularity contest.

Using one day's worth of performance, doing things that players never do on the field BTW, to evaluate the value of a draft prospect is the very definition of asinine.

To me the combine has the same value as that of the Pro Bowl.

[Arkansasbear]

The forty is a tool not an end-all.

Now if you are looking for a WR or RB who you think can take it to the house whenever he has the ball in his hands, I think it's great for that. 4.3 guys has a much better chance to do that that a 4.6 guy. But strength / power are important too. Years ago we draft some WR I think from FSU who was crazy fast - 4 flat!!!! Not really but he was a super track star. The problem was he weighed a buck-0-eight socking wet and was week. You put pads on him and he ran a 5.5 (again not really just making a point). There are just so many factors / tools that need to be used but for some reason people fall in love with the forty. I guess it's a sexy stat.

[dplank]

Film trumps all

[Grizzled]

The 40-yard dash is undeniably the most often cited athletic test with respect to NFL Draft Prospects, including by me. But the 40 is often misleading as hell. Devin Hester, for instance, was timed at 4.43 at the Combine, but on the field, he certainly seemed much faster than that. I know I never saw him caught from behind. Not ever. You'd think at some point in his career, a player in the 4.3s would have done that. But it never happened, not that I witnessed.

But going over our recent FA RB signings, the fallacy of the 40 became even more apparent. Looking at the film, Homer seems so much faster than Foreman, who appears more lumbering with a lot more power. Take a look for yourself and see what you think:





Wanting to see how much faster Homer was, I looked it up. Imagine my surprise when I found out that Foreman actually had a faster 40--4.46 to 4.48. Now normally when I find that kind of discrepancy, I immediately look to the 20 yard shuttle and the 3 cone to determine quickness. So imagine my further surprise when Foreman's shuttle was also faster than Homer's--4.29 to 4.31.

Then I noticed the 10-yard split, and it explained everything. Homer was much faster--1.57 to 1.63. He was also considerably quicker in the Cone--7.07 to 7.21. That still left the shuttle, and sure enough, at 20 yards, Foreman was faster than Homer--2.57 to 2.61. But how often does anybody but WRs run more than 20 yards at top speed let alone 40? I can't imagine what the Shuttle is supposed to test other than a change of direction at top speed. Really only applicable to WRs in running routes.

So if you really want to determine a player's "football" speed, you should concentrate on his 10 yard split and barring that, his three cone, which shows a more limited area change of direction speed. This is most especially true of offensive and defensive linemen.

Just some highlights as I reviewed clips of our new acquisitions. Both of whom I really like and who seem to complement each other.

Couldn't agree more, especially regarding the linemen, much better indicators. Really, about the only NFL player whose speed impressed me was Chris Johnson, running back with the Titans, he had afterburners in his shoes.

[Arkansasbear]

The 40-yard dash is undeniably the most often cited athletic test with respect to NFL Draft Prospects, including by me. But the 40 is often misleading as hell. Devin Hester, for instance, was timed at 4.43 at the Combine, but on the field, he certainly seemed much faster than that. I know I never saw him caught from behind. Not ever. You'd think at some point in his career, a player in the 4.3s would have done that. But it never happened, not that I witnessed.

But going over our recent FA RB signings, the fallacy of the 40 became even more apparent. Looking at the film, Homer seems so much faster than Foreman, who appears more lumbering with a lot more power. Take a look for yourself and see what you think:





Wanting to see how much faster Homer was, I looked it up. Imagine my surprise when I found out that Foreman actually had a faster 40--4.46 to 4.48. Now normally when I find that kind of discrepancy, I immediately look to the 20 yard shuttle and the 3 cone to determine quickness. So imagine my further surprise when Foreman's shuttle was also faster than Homer's--4.29 to 4.31.

Then I noticed the 10-yard split, and it explained everything. Homer was much faster--1.57 to 1.63. He was also considerably quicker in the Cone--7.07 to 7.21. That still left the shuttle, and sure enough, at 20 yards, Foreman was faster than Homer--2.57 to 2.61. But how often does anybody but WRs run more than 20 yards at top speed let alone 40? I can't imagine what the Shuttle is supposed to test other than a change of direction at top speed. Really only applicable to WRs in running routes.

So if you really want to determine a player's "football" speed, you should concentrate on his 10 yard split and barring that, his three cone, which shows a more limited area change of direction speed. This is most especially true of offensive and defensive linemen.

Just some highlights as I reviewed clips of our new acquisitions. Both of whom I really like and who seem to complement each other.

Couldn't agree more, especially regarding the linemen, much better indicators. Really, about the only NFL player whose speed impressed me was Chris Johnson, running back with the Titans, he had afterburners in his shoes.

That dude was FAST and so fun to watch.

[southdakbearfan]

I always wondered why they don’t do drills in pads, or at least some of them.

[The Marshall Plan]

The combine needs to really change to focus on the mental aspects of the game.

Team interviews. Personality tests. Stuff like that.

But like the cone drill? Or the 40 yard dash in a straight line in ideal conditions? Who cares.

[karhu]

In my recent comparison of overall combine numbers with those of All-Pros, both shuttle and cone times were negatively correlated with outstanding performance for WRs. They're significant for linemen and linebackers, but nothing really measures Hester's superpower (maintaining speed while cutting) or those of guys like DeAndre Hopkins (slowing other players down with variations in tempo and trajectory).

[Yogi da Bear]

Couldn't agree more, especially regarding the linemen, much better indicators. Really, about the only NFL player whose speed impressed me was Chris Johnson, running back with the Titans, he had afterburners in his shoes.

That dude was FAST and so fun to watch.

Screw you guys. In fantasy, I had Peyton Manning who just went through his last year in Indy, and I had drafted Andrew Luck. So I traded Manning, to Iggy I think, for Chris Johnson, as I had no RBs. Manning led Iggy to like three League CHampionships I think, while Johnson crashed and burned.

[dplank]

When Robert Smith got that long stride going, he was in catchable.

[Grizzled]

That dude was FAST and so fun to watch.

Screw you guys. In fantasy, I had Peyton Manning who just went through his last year in Indy, and I had drafted Andrew Luck. So I traded Manning, to Iggy I think, for Chris Johnson, as I had no RBs. Manning led Iggy to like three League CHampionships I think, while Johnson crashed and burned.

LOL, sorry to laugh, his end was painful.

[spudbear]

We've seen glimpses of the afterburner speed with VJJ. You can have your 40 times but there are some players who find another gear in a game situation. Hester may not have timed the fastest on the team but he could beat anyone in a race. Still have great memories of him returning a kick, with a would-be tackler bearing down and he either put on a quick afterburn or a slight change in direction to elude the tackler. That's what you look for in the film, and something you won't see in the combine.

[HurricaneBear]

We've seen glimpses of the afterburner speed with VJJ. You can have your 40 times but there are some players who find another gear in a game situation. Hester may not have timed the fastest on the team but he could beat anyone in a race. Still have great memories of him returning a kick, with a would-be tackler bearing down and he either put on a quick afterburn or a slight change in direction to elude the tackler. That's what you look for in the film, and something you won't see in the combine.

Hesters combine was a disappointment yes. At his pro day he ran a 4.27.

[Grizzled]

Still more impressed with game films and in-person scouting rather than drills at the Combine and Pro Days.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I always wondered why they don’t do drills in pads, or at least some of them.

Exactly.
I mean it’s meaningless.
This is how fast he could run, in a straight line (meaningless) with no pads on (meaningless).

[bearsoldier]

"Then I noticed the 10-yard split, and it explained everything. Homer was much faster--1.57 to 1.63...
So if you really want to determine a player's "football" speed, you should concentrate on his 10 yard split..."

Totally agree... 25+yrs ago, I thought the 40yd dash was the key time to look at for fast guys, but it really is that burst in the first 10yds we should all pay attention to.

It is not that you ignore the 40yd dash time, but it is certainly not the only tell-tale sign of a quick football player.

[Burl]

Just like the bench press is a good, basic measure of a person's overall strength, the 40 is a good, basic measure of a player's speed.

No single measure is perfect or all-encompassing. I agree it often carries too much weight among casual football fans, but I also don't think GMs and talent scouts are oblivious to its limitations.

[EricTighe]

One with Hester. At the time he ran at the combine, Indy was known to be a slow track for the 40.
Two I wish they would give us top MPH instead that would be a better indictment of how fast guys are. Or better yet line them all up at each position and say go. Running against guys you will see the competitive fire come out.

3. the 40 is now and never has been the end all. It just lets you know what you see on tape reflects what is real.

I am more than sure NFL teams have that 40 broken up into when they left and then splits at 10, 20, 30, and then MPH for the last 10 to see how fast it translates to the field.

Has to be computer geeks somewhere to break all this down.

[ramentaschen]

I like the NFL replays that show the top speed of the ball carriers.

Someone hit 22 mph last year

Tyreek Hill hit 23 mph in two separate years

[dplank]

I like the NFL replays that show the top speed of the ball carriers.

Someone hit 22 mph last year

Tyreek Hill hit 23 mph in two separate years

Didn’t Fields do that?

[IE]

I like the NFL replays that show the top speed of the ball carriers.

Someone hit 22 mph last year

Tyreek Hill hit 23 mph in two separate years

Didn’t Fields do that?

EDIT: I thought he did hit 22 mph - but he was more in the 21 range a few times. He has incredible acceleration and also long sustained speed. Reek can catch him but I don't know who else. Not many.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears ... eason-2018

[Otis Day]

Jerry Rice was a 4.7 at the combine. I don't remember too many guys catching him from behind.

[southdakbearfan]

Jerry Rice was a 4.7 at the combine. I don't remember too many guys catching him from behind.

I think lots of 4.4 or 4.5 guys turn into 4.7 or worse guys with the pads on.

[RichH55]

Jerry Rice was a 4.7 at the combine. I don't remember too many guys catching him from behind.

Its an excellent point - I do feel the league - as a whole was slower then as well

And I'd bet his splits were nice