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Middleguard
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Dplank recently pointed out (G knows what thread) that there always seems to be at least one team each year that manages to move from last to first in their division, and asked why we should have less expectation for the Bears in '23. Let's look at the 2 most recent examples: last year's Jaguars and the prior year's Bengals ( both of which managed to do more than win their divisions.

Bengals don't seem to provide a useful example. On offense they only acquired 2 significant players: a RT in FA and a WR with the 5th pick in the draft. On defense they acquired 4 significant players thru FA: all 3 CBs and a DE. Bears already have 2 new significant players on O and 3 or 4 on D. Who thinks they can stop there and win the division?

Jaguars appear more useful. On offense they acquired 4 significant players: a TE and 2 WRs thru FA, and a G in the 3rd round. On defense they acquired 5: a CB, a DL, and a ILB in FA, and a ILB and a OLB with 1st rd picks. (3/4 of their LBs, sound familiar?)

Despite the splash the Jaguars made on offense, both teams made more of their significant changes on their defenses. Bears have further to go on D.
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dplank
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I think the Bears can be one of those teams Middleguard. With just a couple moves and a few things going our way I can see us winning the NFCN next season. One proven pass rusher would make a big difference and they are out there. Quinn could be a rotational piece for instance, shouldn’t cost too much , and provides a nice hedge against a rookie coming in, plus he’s a great mentor for the rookie as well - win win.
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Quinn is not the difference between winning the division and not
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I think a lot of things have to go right for that to happen....health of not only Chicago, but other teams as well. The improvements of the teams on our schedule. I wouldn't count on winning the North....but, I do feel we can make tremendous strides
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The Marshall Plan
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Yes.

Everything is there for it to happen, but is Poles up to it?

1) JF1 is ascending and this is now year 3.
2) WR group got a massive upgrade.
3) Our schedule is soft.
4) The Packers are imploding.

The problem is that Poles hasn't upgraded the DL yet. Let's see the draft and what we look like afterwards, but I'm not encouraged.
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HurricaneBear
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 4:36 am Yes.

Everything is there for it to happen, but is Poles up to it?

1) JF1 is ascending and this is now year 3.
2) WR group got a massive upgrade.
3) Our schedule is soft.
4) The Packers are imploding.

The problem is that Poles hasn't upgraded the OL enough yet.
Fixed that for you. Join team Super Duper Offense. You know you want to. JF1 and a super offense will thrill you more than even Gardner Minshew. Embrace the power of the dark side...
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It was a soft FA class to build some of our problem areas. I was hoping to acquire a DL in the trade back and Poles targeted the WR. The draft has several possibilities to build the D liine, but you don’t know who you’ll end up with so it’s stupid to do what Pace did every year and hand out contracts to guys at positions you’d like to draft.
I bet if one of the 4 QBs fall to us at 9 that we trade back with a team like Washington
But it’s not just talent that’ll get us worst to first. All the little things that went wrong in close games last year will have to get cleaned up. JF1 will have to see some of the open guys for big plays and avoid injuries; all the stupid fumbles at the worst moments go away; o line playing better; no sign of pettis or ebner; and that’s just the offense
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The Marshall Plan
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HurricaneBear wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 6:09 am
The Marshall Plan wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 4:36 am Yes.

Everything is there for it to happen, but is Poles up to it?

1) JF1 is ascending and this is now year 3.
2) WR group got a massive upgrade.
3) Our schedule is soft.
4) The Packers are imploding.

The problem is that Poles hasn't upgraded the OL enough yet.
Fixed that for you. Join team Super Duper Offense. You know you want to. JF1 and a super offense will thrill you more than even Gardner Minshew. Embrace the power of the dark side...
I love the idea of Super Duper Offense. 40 points a game is a damn good defense.

I mean there is that argument. If the defense is going to be towards the bottom or average at best then just embrace the dark side and go for 40 points a game.

At least if we lose it’ll be fun to watch.

Bijan Robinson in this offense, and the supporting cast, would be amazing.
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dplank
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Super offense is where I’m at. I think we are super close to having it too, solve RT and everything is there if we stay healthy (Jenkins / WRs) and key guys step forward as we all know they can (Fields / Jones).

The defense just needs to be middling. Just don’t allow teams to control the ball and keep our offense off the field sort of thing. A Quinn or Clark or Ngakoue would really help IMO. Focus just on 3rd down pass rush:

Clark/Walker/Jones/Rookie vs Rookie/Walker/Jones/ Another rookie or Gipson. The first group has a chance at least.
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IE
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I don't know if the Bears can overtake the Lions this year. They're building a quality team just like Poles is - and are a year or two ahead. Both teams are getting substantially better on D this offseason - both through FA and with a lot of draft capital.

IMO the difference is JF1 & it all comes down to JF1, honestly. IF JF1 continues to ascend then having Jenk at RT backed up by Borom is not going to change the outcome much. It just isn't. I do expect a C in the draft, and think a rookie C can have year 1 results like we've seen elsewhere recently. But if JF1 unfortunately plateaus (i don't think he will - but he could) and just remains a high beta stock then the Bears won't be consistent enough to compete at a playoff level. If he gains consistency and starts playing more often than not like he did in that second GB game and a several others mid-'22 then look out. It really is all on him.

I predict he WILL gain a ton of consistency with the new weapons and a better functioning OLine, and the Bears will win 10 games. Heck - they could have won 6-7 last season but luckily didn't! But I think the Lions will win 10 or more too, and the Bears might have to fight for a wildcard spot.

I'll call it "last to playoffs"
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I think we’re going to go from last to first in terms of overall record.
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I think about the cascade effect that 1 WR (Moore) has had on our WR group, he’s a force multiplier and brings more value than just his own abilities. His addition allowed both Claypool and Mooney to play their best positions and have less coverage focus on them, giving them much better chances to be successful.

I see a vet DE in a lesser, but similar light. We won’t have a Moore level talent addition at DE, but adding a Quinn, Clark, or Ngakoue has a significant multiplier effect to the rest of the line. Walker can now kick inside in pass rush downs and paired with Jones might make some noise. We’d have a focal point for pass protection with the new vet, we don’t have anyone now that warrants attention. The vet is also an ON FIELD COACH for last years and this years rookies - that is HUGE IMO and pairs with our long term plan for growth. And it takes guys like DomRob and Gipson and moves them to backup/rotation guys which is absolutely where they belong and may have an opportunity to contribute. And finally we will definitely draft one or two DL, and having that vet allows you to bring them along at whatever pace the coaches think they need vs forcing them out there before they are ready. If they overtake the vet - great!!! If they don’t, then we are not putting them in a bad situation.

All of this value can happen with 1 short contract vet signing. And it in no way creates a deviation from Poles long term vision.
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Always thought that DL was one of the Least "Coach on the Field" type positions. It's why no one cared if a DT had like a 5 Wunderlich.

I also think they are planning on moving Walker up and down the line regardless - so having the ghost of Quinn doesn't really change the plan

Comparing signing a vet DL to the force multiplier that DJ Moore can be - is not reading the situation all that well IMHO

And I think the Bears Will sign a vet - my choice is Justin Houston - but I don't think it will have anywhere near the cascade effect that some are suggesting

Of course, once Poles does do it - then it won't be the magic bullet anymore - it will be too little and why only 1 year deal? Etc etc
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I'll settle for 8 wins as long as Fields puts all QB questions to bed. I don't think this is a worst to first roster. Let's remember, our defense was horrific and the biggest problem was the DL. I don't think we can make that much of an improvement with the draft and what's left in FA. Based on what we are doing, I think 2025 is more likely the year we really compete. As long as we draft well this year and next, I'm happy.
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BigDaddy wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 4:19 pm I'll settle for 8 wins as long as Fields puts all QB questions to bed. I don't think this is a worst to first roster. Let's remember, our defense was horrific and the biggest problem was the DL. I don't think we can make that much of an improvement with the draft and what's left in FA. Based on what we are doing, I think 2025 is more likely the year we really compete. As long as we draft well this year and next, I'm happy.
If we add a vet that plays well and we hit a home run on a high draft pick, our DL could be decent. Considering how good our back 7 looks, that should be enough for a middling defense IMO.
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IE
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If JF1 puts all questions to bed, it's 11-12 wins ... OR ... 6 wins. Either way, we know.

I agree one vet DE makes sense. I just don't see that as being nearly the multiplying factor that the QB could be. More than RT too.
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dplank
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IE wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 6:19 pm If JF1 puts all questions to bed, it's 11-12 wins ... OR ... 6 wins. Either way, we know.

I agree one vet DE makes sense. I just don't see that as being nearly the multiplying factor that the QB could be. More than RT too.
Totally agree, it’s primarily about JF1. If he does what we both think he will do, we are gonna have a great offense. A vet DE is a far less impact overall, more about raising the floor and trying to avoid being the worst defense in the NFL again. I don’t want to allow teams to run down our throat and keep JF1 off the field!
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If they draft a RT or Jenkins can hold down the job. If they draft a C or Patrick actually does well. If they add a DE who can get after the QB (Ngakoue even though he's a sieve against the run). If they draft a 3T. 8 wins would be a seismic improvement. 10 wins would be amazing and definitely get them in the playoffs. I'm with IE, the Loins have to be considered the division favorites.
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