2023 Free Agency News / Rumors / Transactions

[bbaker]

Interesting metric.
However, it corresponds fairly well to inverse of how they finished last year, which isn't terribly informative.

Bad teams get more draft capital. Winning teams have to let more quality free agents go, due to having more quality and tighter caps.

Overall, yes. However, there are some pretty huge exceptions in there. The Bucs weren't good last year, and they are 2nd to last, along with several other bad teams who are down there pretty far like the Rams, Colts, and Titans. On the other hand, it's a little scary where the Lions are on that list, considering how they finished the season.

[artbest01]

IMO, regarding Fields' rookie contract, it's important to note that he's not (yet) a "sure thing." We saw what happened when Ryan Pace treated Mitchell Trubisky has a legit QB in 2018 with the Mack trade. 2023 is a "make or break" year for Justin - Poles has positioned the Bears to move on a QB in 2024 if #1 falters. Significant/dramatic improvement is needed as a passer in 2023. Even if RT is an open question, Justin now has weapons around him. There are no excuses or rationalizations - he either shows he's the guy or he doesn't.

As for the defense, the coverage is less of an issue than the front. The one-gap scheme is best deployed with an elite 3T. The Bears do not have one to date. The best candidate available via free agency was Hargrave - and he was a. likely older than Poles would like and b. wanted to go where he could compete for a title in 2023. He makes the 49er defense even more lethal. DreMont Jones, from what I understand, did most of his "damage" as a 5T - it's an open question as to whether he can be a bona-fide 3T.

All that said, I WAS hoping that the Bears would come away with McGlinchey and Jones in free agency. That they didn't, however, likely doesn't deter Poles - he himself has said that he believes this draft is deep when it comes to offensive and defensive line. The Bears likely will add a middling veteran OT and may do the same on the d-line, but rookies figure to play a very prominent role in 2023. Can the Bears win the division? Only, imo, if #1 makes a quantum leap. If he's just "good/improved", I believe the division belongs to the Lions.

[The Cooler King]

Interesting metric.
However, it corresponds fairly well to inverse of how they finished last year, which isn't terribly informative.

Bad teams get more draft capital. Winning teams have to let more quality free agents go, due to having more quality and tighter caps.

I'm not sure draft capital is even factored in. It's just player movement in FA. Similar explanation though.

Anyways at face value a 40 pt point differential swing would equate to about 1 additional expected win for Bears (they had 5.2 expected wins last year fwiw)

[RichH55]

At least one team goes worst to first almost every year Wulfy, no reason why that can't be us. We have the QB, we are moving into the 2nd year of both our O and D schemes so will see improvement just from that. We played more rookies than anyone, so we will see improvement from that. And we have increased our talent level a lot this offseason.

I don't see any issue with plugging a few extra holes with quality vets before we go into the draft to hedge our bets and allow more freedom to draft BPA.

A bunch of the losses were close as well - And close losses don't tend to be "sticky" year to year.

So expecting improvement - even marked improvement - is very fair IMHO

Does this justify the degree of sturm and drang if we don't sign Ngakoue? Well - No. No it does not.

[RichH55]

Interesting metric.
However, it corresponds fairly well to inverse of how they finished last year, which isn't terribly informative.

Bad teams get more draft capital. Winning teams have to let more quality free agents go, due to having more quality and tighter caps.

I'm not sure draft capital is even factored in. It's just player movement in FA. Similar explanation though.

Anyways at face value a 40 pt point differential swing would equate to about 1 additional expected win for Bears (they had 5.2 expected wins last year fwiw)

And Poles didn't go 2022 Jaguars either

I do expect a few value signings still as well

[Moriarty]

Interesting metric.
However, it corresponds fairly well to inverse of how they finished last year, which isn't terribly informative.

Bad teams get more draft capital. Winning teams have to let more quality free agents go, due to having more quality and tighter caps.

I'm not sure draft capital is even factored in. It's just player movement in FA. Similar explanation though.

Anyways at face value a 40 pt point differential swing would equate to about 1 additional expected win for Bears (they had 5.2 expected wins last year fwiw)

I assume that's what "based on offseason roster moves & draft capital" means

Where are you getting 40pts = 1 win from?

[The Cooler King]

I'm not sure draft capital is even factored in. It's just player movement in FA. Similar explanation though.

Anyways at face value a 40 pt point differential swing would equate to about 1 additional expected win for Bears (they had 5.2 expected wins last year fwiw)

I assume that's what "based on offseason roster moves & draft capital" means

Where are you getting 40pts = 1 win from?

Whoops missed the "and draft capital"! Really underscores how big Phillys FA losses are since they have good draft capital.

The 40 point swing I just plugged into the expected W-L formula off their 2022 points for/against. The results do change slightly depending on how you split between points for or against. The range on that formula would be 5.95 - 6.19 depending on how you split that 40.

So could also have slightly different results on other teams with different PF/PA starting points.

The formula for expected W-L (which pro football reference uses):
PF^2.37 / ((PF^2.37) + (PA^2.37))

[duckherd50]

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/lists/be ... ce=twitter

This list makes me feel better about what is still out there. I think maybe we will end up getting a couple of these players as veteran additions to help bring along the youth movement on the team

[o-pus #40 in B major]

Yes and I think Poles might bolster another position group in preparation for the draft. Maybe a CB.

[Shadow]

I just think he’s in no rush to start winning. He needs to realize that you can play the long game AND try to compete at the same time. Signing a proven vet to bridge your draft picks doesn’t destroy your long term vision. He’s not trying to compete with this DL.

Cosigned.

Poles is squandering JF1's rookie deal.

What's the excuse in 2 or 3 years when JF1 comes knocking for his $50M? The time to build a winner is now.

That's also why you make the Jalen Ramsey trade for a third.

Then we have a secondary of:

CB1: Ramsey: Lockdown #1 CB
CB2: JJ who I think is best suited for this.
Slot: Gordon
Safeties: EJax and Brisker.

That's a fucking secondary.

In FA you sign Jones and Ngakoue. You then draft BPA DL at 9 or after a second tradedown. Get a guy like Murphy or Bresee. If you stay at 9 and Carter falls, hot damn how interesting would that be to have Jones and Carter in the middle?

You then have a dominant DL, a dominant secondary, and the LBs are serviceable, but they look better than what they are because the OL doesn't knock them out of every play by getting to the second level of blocking.

You can pressure the QB with consistency. When he passes the ball there's a great chance you can make a play.

But instead Poles sat on his hands and spent money on LBs.

Ramsey was only open to playing for Miami. This is why the Rams only got what they got. Bears had really no shot at getting him.

[TheWorldBreaker]

It’s not a straw man argument, it’s a recognition of history. History clearly demonstrates that spending big money in free agency is not how you build a successful and sustainable franchise. Frequently, teams end up regretting their big ticket signings. I believe the Patriots just traded away their last big free agent signing for a 7th round pick when they uncharacteristically spent heavily in free agency.

Also, I think there is a delusion or failure to recognize where this team is at. If they spent recklessly, traded away the future, and had good luck health wise they might be able to win a playoff game next year.

But as we saw in 2018, it’d be fool’s gold and trading away the future prevents you from properly building for the future.

You have to lay the foundation before you start building the house. The Pace era left the roster with very little talent and almost no blue chip players. They are not one or two players away from being contenders. They need starters and better depth in lots of areas.

It’s crazy to me that we literally just saw this approach with Ryan Pace completely fail and get him fired and people are lamenting Poles not following this just failed model.

And yet there's also teams who toil away the right way and regret thier failed draft picks L.

Theres no right way. There's leveraging the all the available tools and doing it well or not.

No team can be successful without hitting on draft picks and getting several impact players.

If you haven’t hit on enough of draft picks, there isn’t a sufficient team built for a major free agent signing or two or three to have enough of an impact to compete for championships.

[The Cooler King]

And yet there's also teams who toil away the right way and regret thier failed draft picks L.

Theres no right way. There's leveraging the all the available tools and doing it well or not.

No team can be successful without hitting on draft picks and getting several impact players.

If you haven’t hit on enough of draft picks, there isn’t a sufficient team built for a major free agent signing or two or three to have enough of an impact to compete for championships.

And if you never spend it really won't matter how well you draft, opportunity will pass you by before you're likely to capitalize on it.

[thunderspirit]

And if you never spend it really won't matter how well you draft, opportunity will pass you by before you're likely to capitalize on it.

Good thing the Bears haven't done that "never spend" thing, then.

[TheWorldBreaker]

No team can be successful without hitting on draft picks and getting several impact players.

If you haven’t hit on enough of draft picks, there isn’t a sufficient team built for a major free agent signing or two or three to have enough of an impact to compete for championships.

And if you never spend it really won't matter how well you draft, opportunity will pass you by before you're likely to capitalize on it.

You’re literally required to spend and you have to make an honest assessment of where your roster is before getting into bidding wars over specific guys.

The Bears roster is still too depleted for that because Pace bungled multiple drafts.

Also, you don’t have to spend money via free agency, you can spend it by signing guys you trade for to extensions, which has paid major dividends for the Chiefs, Rams, and Eagles in recent years.

[The Cooler King]

And if you never spend it really won't matter how well you draft, opportunity will pass you by before you're likely to capitalize on it.

You’re literally required to spend and you have to make an honest assessment of where your roster is before getting into bidding wars over specific guys.

The Bears roster is still too depleted for that because Pace bungled multiple drafts.

Also, you don’t have to spend money via free agency, you can spend it by signing guys you trade for to extensions, which has paid major dividends for the Chiefs, Rams, and Eagles in recent years.

And often has backfired on Bears. There's no secret one trick.

Theres no prolonged "honest assesment". Lifespans are too short and rosters turn over frequently. There's just building and trying to add as much as you can in short term without compromising flexibility.

Poles got his one year break in and tank. He can't sit around contemplating every guy on roster to end of the earth. Gotta just start building.

[The Cooler King]

And if you never spend it really won't matter how well you draft, opportunity will pass you by before you're likely to capitalize on it.

Good thing the Bears haven't done that "never spend" thing, then.

Well 2022 certainly was. But tankity tank.

[The Marshall Plan]

And if you never spend it really won't matter how well you draft, opportunity will pass you by before you're likely to capitalize on it.

Good thing the Bears haven't done that "never spend" thing, then.

In the modern era, after the whole Ditka - McCaskey Wars of the 1980s, the Bears have made moves and spent.

Some of those moves were intelligent. I'd argue the Cutler trade was a net positive. We can debate Mack and I see both sides. We got one magical season for 2 first rounders and a king's ransom of an extension.

The problem is that all too often the moves the Bears make. Especially Pace and some of Poles' too have been categorically stupid.

Pretty much any Ryan Pace first rounder not named Roquan Smith who Poles then traded out of town anyway. So even when Pace did something right in the first round, the next GM traded that player away.

JF1 as he's performing now coupled with him being on the rookie deal makes him untouchable. Even if Poles really did want a QB at #1 there's no way. Poles was always going to trade down because JF1 is in such a sweet spot. In a way, JF1 deserves the credit for the trade down and not Poles.

Now in FA this year, it was and still is obvious the DL is a huge problem. Instead we get 2 LBs. So Poles did spend money, but I don't know what the heck he was thinking.

[dplank]

I like the job Poles is doing overall despite what the liar claims, but there’s merit in these points that Cooler and TMP are making. It is possible to like his overall approach and still question some aspects of it - I’m consistently surprised how that seems to bother people.

Our DL right now isn’t good enough. If Walker plays outside then we have 1/2 a DE (because he certainly kicks inside in pass rush downs). Gipson and DomRob can’t play barring a major change in their trajectory which would shock me, they just don’t have it. MAYBE DomRob as he’s so raw but I think it’s highly unlikely, he really sucked hard last year. Our DTs are serviceable at best. I’m sure we will add to the group in the draft, but it won’t surprise me at all if Poles doesn’t take one until later. He’s fantastically stubborn, to a fault IMO at least in this early phase of his GM tenure. If this is what he does, then he has failed to produce a proper 2023 roster IMO because that DL group will be woefully inadequate and drag the rest of the team down.

I get he can’t fix everything in 2 off seasons but he can do a better job of raising the floor of this group in particular. There’s still time for him to do something.

[dplank]

Atlantic article out today talking about the status of things and how Poles had done so far this offseason. A lot of positives. Here’s a snippet on the DL though:

Fishbain: This position should be priority No. 1. As you said, Jahnsy, Walker and Billings are upgrades to what the Bears had at those spots, but where’s the pass rush coming from? This was the worst pass-rushing team in football in 2022. I could definitely see an edge rusher coming in the second wave of free agency. Where’s the three-technique of the future? Who’s your long-term answer as an edge rusher? The Bears should load up here in the draft and hope that one, two or three guys stick as impact players. Depth is also a major question mark. Ideally, the Bears can roll through seven or eight guys per game up front. How many do you feel comfortable with right now, three? Four?

I suppose this means Fishbain is an uninformed, hysterical, Poles hating Bears fan?

For context, the prior writer asked what happens if we draft RT at 9, which both expect? Leaving us with 4 holes to fill in the DL and no first rd pick.

[Atkins&Rebel]

We definitely need a play maker, if not 2 guys, still on the D line. Probably need 1 more piece in the secondary also. The O line needs to get settled on the other side of the ball.

Poles is building in a strategic purposeful way. He’s not throwing money at anyone who’s better than average just to say he addressed the position adequately. His plan is to take on contracts that won’t cripple the team, and try to find talent in the draft.

You can argue that the job isn’t done and that we’re all looking forward to the draft to see what comes from that. And then see how Poles fills in with lower contract guys after the draft. And then if he “lucks into “ a situation after June 1 cuts. Then there’s still a possibility of trading some of our extra draft capital for a stud if we’re close to being a contender.

[wulfy]

@Atkins&Rebel, I think that's a fair characterization of what Poles is doing. He inherited a fairly empty cupboard and personnel for a 3-4 defense - he has a lot of work to do.

I could see him packaging something to move up in the Second Round for one of the DTs or the OTs - depending on what they do in the first round.

Look at it this way - add a RT in the draft and your offense is fairly set and upgraded for 2023. Your defense (DL in particular) is a Hot Mess however.

[IE]

I'm trending towards wanting just to make sure to get AA later in the first round and then signing Ngakoue at Edge. I'm guessing he wants a bigger multiyear deal & that is what is holding Poles back. But honestly I'm not really sold at all on DomRob and Gip - and agree that Gip might be a 3-4 OLB ideally and not as suited for this D. I think they can still draft another DE later in this draft but wouldn't even have to if they had Ngakoue and Walker - and I'd like that DL with those two, Billings, AA and Jones rotating in. I'd like that a lot.

If Poles doesn't want to do a multiyear deal then like folks have been saying there is always Houston, Quinn or Clowney as a rental. A lot more higher picks next year again, and while there will be needs one could go to a nice DE.

My current thinking is use some of the 10-pick firepower (and high picks in most rounds) to trade up and take AA with the Bears second pick in the first round. Just do it. Poles has brought in a lot of new players and other than the DL depth is decent. Use 3 picks to get AA and you still have 6 left after having picked AA and another stud in the first.

[wab]

Gipson had never played OLB until he was drafted by the Bears. He was a full time DE at Tulsa.

Now, maybe he’s a better OLB than a DE in the NFL but I think if the DTs get better penetration, Gipson will improve.

[dplank]

I'm trending towards wanting just to make sure to get AA later in the first round and then signing Ngakoue at Edge. I'm guessing he wants a bigger multiyear deal & that is what is holding Poles back. But honestly I'm not really sold at all on DomRob and Gip - and agree that Gip might be a 3-4 OLB ideally and not as suited for this D. I think they can still draft another DE later in this draft but wouldn't even have to if they had Ngakoue and Walker - and I'd like that DL with those two, Billings, AA and Jones rotating in. I'd like that a lot.

If Poles doesn't want to do a multiyear deal then like folks have been saying there is always Houston, Quinn or Clowney as a rental. A lot more higher picks next year again, and while there will be needs one could go to a nice DE.

My current thinking is use some of the 10-pick firepower (and high picks in most rounds) to trade up and take AA with the Bears second pick in the first round. Just do it. Poles has brought in a lot of new players and other than the DL depth is decent. Use 3 picks to get AA and you still have 6 left after having picked AA and another stud in the first.

Solid plan

[LacertineForest]

Not a FA, but a tasty rumor:

[The Cooler King]

Not a FA, but a tasty rumor:

Twitter is BUZZING lol

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I'm trending towards wanting just to make sure to get AA later in the first round and then signing Ngakoue at Edge. I'm guessing he wants a bigger multiyear deal & that is what is holding Poles back. But honestly I'm not really sold at all on DomRob and Gip - and agree that Gip might be a 3-4 OLB ideally and not as suited for this D. I think they can still draft another DE later in this draft but wouldn't even have to if they had Ngakoue and Walker - and I'd like that DL with those two, Billings, AA and Jones rotating in. I'd like that a lot.

If Poles doesn't want to do a multiyear deal then like folks have been saying there is always Houston, Quinn or Clowney as a rental. A lot more higher picks next year again, and while there will be needs one could go to a nice DE.

My current thinking is use some of the 10-pick firepower (and high picks in most rounds) to trade up and take AA with the Bears second pick in the first round. Just do it. Poles has brought in a lot of new players and other than the DL depth is decent. Use 3 picks to get AA and you still have 6 left after having picked AA and another stud in the first.

Would love to draft AA.

I’d go for Paris JJr for #9 and AA in the second even if we have to trade up for him.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Not a FA, but a tasty rumor:

He must be bunk if he didn’t get a sack on Chicago last year

[LacertineForest]

Not a FA, but a tasty rumor:

He must be bunk if he didn’t get a sack on Chicago last year

Heh, although he was credited with a sack during the game, so he did get one from each NFCN team.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

He must be bunk if he didn’t get a sack on Chicago last year

Heh, although he was credited with a sack during the game, so he did get one from each NFCN team.

Only kidding LF

So is this Ed Oliver. What’s the buzz? Are we talking about trading for him? How would that look, a 2023 second?