2023 Free Agency News / Rumors / Transactions

[RichH55]

The DL stuff is premature - and ignores that we did add multiple guys to the DL in FA (Not even counting the Draft)

The guy we got - should be in the same ballpark as Dremont Jones IMHO

He's probably a bit of what WAB was envisioning when he was championing Dremont Jones (*) to begin with

(*) I was absolutely UNAWARE of Jones until WAB brought him up (Ages ago in season)

But on Jones - part of the reason WAB liked him (AND WAB CORRECT ME IF ANY OF THIS IS OFF BASE PLEASE)

He was an ascending player (not a star) who presumably you could get more "reasonably" than a guy like Hargrave (technically he cost a decent chunk less than Hargrave regardless)

I think the initial presumptions were like maybe he's a guy you can get at like 8 million a year or maybe that pushes to 10 - Plus his comments suggest he is out on Denver - So he actually WILL make FA (always a worry until it happens)

And then FA comes - and he gets PAID - Basically a situation where he's underrated but then everyone notices he's underrated collectively - and ultimately becomes overrated

When one of the draws on a guy is that you might get him reasonably - and then that isn't the case - I do think that should change a bit of the calculus on a player.

Same with draft - there are definitely guys that project to the 3rd Round - that I'd be over the moon about - But if that 3rd Round grade suddenly means I need to use Pick #20 overall on him? That's not such a get anymore

[RichH55]

Can we pay off Fields 2025 extension this season?

No.

You can't extend them until after Year 3

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Can we pay off Fields 2025 extension this season?

No.

You can't extend them until after Year 3

That’s a crazy rule

What we don’t want is to have to pay Fields whilst we’re in the sort of “cap-hell” we were in 12 months ago

[RichH55]

No.

You can't extend them until after Year 3

That’s a crazy rule

What we don’t want is to have to pay Fields whilst we’re in the sort of “cap-hell” we were in 12 months ago

We weren't in Cap Hell 12 months ago - Far, far, far from it

If we were in the same "Cap Hell" as 12 months ago - and Fields wins the MVP and a Super Bowl and is in line for the biggest extension in NFL History - it is NO Problem to do

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

That’s a crazy rule

What we don’t want is to have to pay Fields whilst we’re in the sort of “cap-hell” we were in 12 months ago

We weren't in Cap Hell 12 months ago - Far, far, far from it

If we were in the same "Cap Hell" as 12 months ago - and Fields wins the MVP and a Super Bowl and is in line for the biggest extension in NFL History - it is NO Problem to do

This seems to be an alternative point of view.
Poles inherited the worst cap situation and least draft capital.

[RichH55]

We weren't in Cap Hell 12 months ago - Far, far, far from it

If we were in the same "Cap Hell" as 12 months ago - and Fields wins the MVP and a Super Bowl and is in line for the biggest extension in NFL History - it is NO Problem to do

This seems to be an alternative point of view.
Poles inherited the worst cap situation and least draft capital.

Draft Capital is probably spot on - he didn't have a 1st Rounder last year

Cap Room is Cap Room though - You had a Rookie QB contract and a so-so Roster (and several of your "better" players were also on Rookie Contracts)

You don't just magically have 120 Million in Cap Room this year though - that's what you need to understand

There was literally not a SINGLE contract signed last offseason that the Bears couldn't have done - Not 1. (*)

(*) We actually paid RIley Reiff WAY more than you want to know. WAY more.

Cap Room was NOT one of the challenges Poles inherited

[dplank]

Poles hater! Can’t even admit he had a terrible cap situation lmao

[RichH55]

Poles hater! Can’t even admit he had a terrible cap situation lmao

I deal with reality - you should try it

[thunderspirit]

Having extra draft capital, rosters full of young players, and more than a “go sign everyone cost be damned” mentality is how you deal with the future when fields costs a ton.

Fields, no matter how much you or I believe he is going to be the real deal isn’t 100% proven and this team isn’t a piece or two from a Super Bowl.

I think we are going to the Super Bowl next season

If you have tickets? Sure!

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I think we are going to the Super Bowl next season

If you have tickets? Sure!

I will get tickets to watch the Bears

[Yogi da Bear]

Good question!

I think all GMs posture themselves with statements like "we ALWAYS will take the best player available, regardless of need," but when it comes to the showdown, they absolutely weigh needs and re-adjust their metrics later to justify the pick. This is a little trickier as far as free agency goes.

You're right - they have to do that. A team might really want some player they feel can meet a need or offer some ability they would like to have ... but they have to say they had that person graded out as the best player available, or it raises the question of "... so you intentionally passed on a better player?".

For a long time now, I've been proclaiming that BPA is a myth. I'm no expert, but I've been doing my Picnic Basket for over twenty years now, and except in isolated cases, determining this "mythical" BPA is extremely difficult, and it becomes more difficult the deeper in the draft you go. One man's BPA is another man's POS. And sometimes you'll see guys going two or three rounds before they're projected while other guys fall, some out of the draft altogether. For instance, right now, tell me who the BPA at #9. Hell, even tell me who's going to be available then. I like JJ's explanation, "identify three guys each round who can really help your team. That seems to make the most sense.

But in this case, in a sense, I think that Poles has considered BPA. While it's extremely difficult to determine BPA in each individual circumstance, it's much easier to determine it wholesale. What I mean by that is that while it's extremely difficult to determine who the BPA is going to be at #9, or even who's going to be there, it's much easier to determine that any particular draft is deep at a specific position.

This draft is particularly deep in defensive linemen and centers. I think that's why he hasn't been particularly aggressive it pursuing those positions in free agency. It's also relatively deep in OTs and DBs. That it's also pretty deep in RBs and TEs makes me wonder about his FA pickups at those positions. But I expect a minimum of three DLs and at least one center in this draft, probably a CB and S and TE too. It will be curious to see if he picks up a RB.

[The Marshall Plan]

You're right - they have to do that. A team might really want some player they feel can meet a need or offer some ability they would like to have ... but they have to say they had that person graded out as the best player available, or it raises the question of "... so you intentionally passed on a better player?".

For a long time now, I've been proclaiming that BPA is a myth. I'm no expert, but I've been doing my Picnic Basket for over twenty years now, and except in isolated cases, determining this "mythical" BPA is extremely difficult, and it becomes more difficult the deeper in the draft you go. One man's BPA is another man's POS. And sometimes you'll see guys going two or three rounds before they're projected while other guys fall, some out of the draft altogether. For instance, right now, tell me who the BPA at #9. Hell, even tell me who's going to be available then. I like JJ's explanation, "identify three guys each round who can really help your team. That seems to make the most sense.

But in this case, in a sense, I think that Poles has considered BPA. While it's extremely difficult to determine BPA in each individual circumstance, it's much easier to determine it wholesale. What I mean by that is that while it's extremely difficult to determine who the BPA is going to be at #9, or even who's going to be there, it's much easier to determine that any particular draft is deep at a specific position.

This draft is particularly deep in defensive linemen and centers. I think that's why he hasn't been particularly aggressive it pursuing those positions in free agency. It's also relatively deep in OTs and DBs. That it's also pretty deep in RBs and TEs makes me wonder about his FA pickups at those positions. But I expect a minimum of three DLs and at least one center in this draft, probably a CB and S and TE too. It will be curious to see if he picks up a RB.

Anecdotally, BPA exists.

At some point the #1 RB, let’s say, will become a better NFL player than the #5 OL prospect.

You’ll hate this comparison, but I think it’s valid. It’s like a fantasy league draft. If the first 10 people take QBs, that first WR is looking really damn good.

The whole idea of BPA to me is to not be the chump that gets caught up in a run on a single position.

That’s why I’m saying take Bijan Robinson at 9. Won’t he be a better player in the NFL than Skoronski or Paris Johnson? Now is Robinson a better prospect than Jalen Carter? Well I don’t know about that one.

[The Marshall Plan]

Can we pay off Fields 2025 extension this season?

LOL, $40M in cap space buys a lot.

[karhu]

You're right - they have to do that. A team might really want some player they feel can meet a need or offer some ability they would like to have ... but they have to say they had that person graded out as the best player available, or it raises the question of "... so you intentionally passed on a better player?".

For a long time now, I've been proclaiming that BPA is a myth.

Yeah, as far as I can tell it's just a way for a GM to keep everyone else off-balance. We've invested pretty heavily in WR and LB lately...so we're not picking one at 9, right? "Well, when the time comes, we'll be taking the best player available." What the- Does that mean JSN? Gonzales? Simpson? Dangit, I guess the Bears could choose anybody, eh?

[RichH55]

I generally think it comes later in the draft - maybe there is a significant dropoff in 1st/2nd Tiers/Rounds too? And it just has its limits

Like the difference between the 3rd and 4th player on your board might be minimal

But if you are picking like 63 - there could be a guy - albeit not at a position of need - that you have like 39th on your board.

[o-pus #40 in B major]

I got this from The Athletic just now:

PFF listed Billings as the Raiders' biggest loss this offseason, over Waller and Carr. In fact, on their list of all 32 teams' biggest losses, five of those players are now Bears: Billings, Tremaine Edmunds, Nate Davis, DJ Moore, and Robert Tonyan.

[dplank]

Tonyan is the Packers biggest loss? That and Nate David surprise me.

[Grizzled]

Poles has already said he won't be able to fill all the holes this year. So will that make him more likely to take the true BPA when he drafts? Will he be a trading-back 'fool' like he was last year for more picks? I believe he will.

[The Cooler King]

We weren't in Cap Hell 12 months ago - Far, far, far from it

If we were in the same "Cap Hell" as 12 months ago - and Fields wins the MVP and a Super Bowl and is in line for the biggest extension in NFL History - it is NO Problem to do

This seems to be an alternative point of view.
Poles inherited the worst cap situation and least draft capital.

Whats your metric(s) to judge the worst cap sitaution? Obviously there is a lot of nuance you can get into about the quality of what the inherited cap sitaution gave a GM. But on high level numbers, it's just factually incorrect to state that. So you have to make a really compelling case that it was the quality of what was left made it the worst situation. And I doubt anyway actually can.

[The Cooler King]

Here's a really good cap expert about a year ago assessing cap health rankings. Obviously this was after a FA period and Mack trade. So they undoubtedly improved their position. I respect Brad a lot, but I actually have some issues with the medodologies he uses that I think may understate the Bears, ranked as 10th healthiest.

But even if we accepted them at worst cap situation in January 2022 and then top 10 in May 2022, then holy heck, a bad cap situation could hardly matter less.

[EricTighe]

For a long time now, I've been proclaiming that BPA is a myth. I'm no expert, but I've been doing my Picnic Basket for over twenty years now, and except in isolated cases, determining this "mythical" BPA is extremely difficult, and it becomes more difficult the deeper in the draft you go. One man's BPA is another man's POS. And sometimes you'll see guys going two or three rounds before they're projected while other guys fall, some out of the draft altogether. For instance, right now, tell me who the BPA at #9. Hell, even tell me who's going to be available then. I like JJ's explanation, "identify three guys each round who can really help your team. That seems to make the most sense.

But in this case, in a sense, I think that Poles has considered BPA. While it's extremely difficult to determine BPA in each individual circumstance, it's much easier to determine it wholesale. What I mean by that is that while it's extremely difficult to determine who the BPA is going to be at #9, or even who's going to be there, it's much easier to determine that any particular draft is deep at a specific position.

This draft is particularly deep in defensive linemen and centers. I think that's why he hasn't been particularly aggressive it pursuing those positions in free agency. It's also relatively deep in OTs and DBs. That it's also pretty deep in RBs and TEs makes me wonder about his FA pickups at those positions. But I expect a minimum of three DLs and at least one center in this draft, probably a CB and S and TE too. It will be curious to see if he picks up a RB.

Anecdotally, BPA exists.

At some point the #1 RB, let’s say, will become a better NFL player than the #5 OL prospect.

You’ll hate this comparison, but I think it’s valid. It’s like a fantasy league draft. If the first 10 people take QBs, that first WR is looking really damn good.

The whole idea of BPA to me is to not be the chump that gets caught up in a run on a single position.

That’s why I’m saying take Bijan Robinson at 9. Won’t he be a better player in the NFL than Skoronski or Paris Johnson? Now is Robinson a better prospect than Jalen Carter? Well I don’t know about that one.

Have to agree with Kahru. On BPA. I still think WIll Anderson JR. is the BPA in this draft. But Robinson is up there in the top 5.

I've been a draft nerd for close to 40 years. BPA is one of the easiest things to predict. Whether or not they fit your scheme or your needs ( Biggest mistake to me) it is fairly easy to predict who the best player in the draft will be. One reason why I have never picked a QB to be the best player available. Though the need for one will defiantly make you reach and rightfully so.

[RichH55]

I got this from The Athletic just now:

PFF listed Billings as the Raiders' biggest loss this offseason, over Waller and Carr. In fact, on their list of all 32 teams' biggest losses, five of those players are now Bears: Billings, Tremaine Edmunds, Nate Davis, DJ Moore, and Robert Tonyan.

Dangerously close to praising Poles ....

[Yogi da Bear]

For a long time now, I've been proclaiming that BPA is a myth. I'm no expert, but I've been doing my Picnic Basket for over twenty years now, and except in isolated cases, determining this "mythical" BPA is extremely difficult, and it becomes more difficult the deeper in the draft you go. One man's BPA is another man's POS. And sometimes you'll see guys going two or three rounds before they're projected while other guys fall, some out of the draft altogether. For instance, right now, tell me who the BPA at #9. Hell, even tell me who's going to be available then. I like JJ's explanation, "identify three guys each round who can really help your team. That seems to make the most sense.

But in this case, in a sense, I think that Poles has considered BPA. While it's extremely difficult to determine BPA in each individual circumstance, it's much easier to determine it wholesale. What I mean by that is that while it's extremely difficult to determine who the BPA is going to be at #9, or even who's going to be there, it's much easier to determine that any particular draft is deep at a specific position.

This draft is particularly deep in defensive linemen and centers. I think that's why he hasn't been particularly aggressive it pursuing those positions in free agency. It's also relatively deep in OTs and DBs. That it's also pretty deep in RBs and TEs makes me wonder about his FA pickups at those positions. But I expect a minimum of three DLs and at least one center in this draft, probably a CB and S and TE too. It will be curious to see if he picks up a RB.

Anecdotally, BPA exists.

At some point the #1 RB, let’s say, will become a better NFL player than the #5 OL prospect.

You’ll hate this comparison, but I think it’s valid. It’s like a fantasy league draft. If the first 10 people take QBs, that first WR is looking really damn good.

The whole idea of BPA to me is to not be the chump that gets caught up in a run on a single position.

That’s why I’m saying take Bijan Robinson at 9. Won’t he be a better player in the NFL than Skoronski or Paris Johnson? Now is Robinson a better prospect than Jalen Carter? Well I don’t know about that one.

Kind of a lame argument. In 2020, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the first RB chosen. Is he a better player than Justin Jefferson who was the fifth WR chosen. Hell, he wasn't even the best RB chosen. Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Dobbins, and AJ Dillon were all chosen after him. For me, I'm not positive that Robinson is the best RB in this draft for us.



Can of surprised that those on the board clamoring for dumping Monty should now be extolling Robinson when there's a whole helluva lot more speed at the RB position in this class.

[The Marshall Plan]

Anecdotally, BPA exists.

At some point the #1 RB, let’s say, will become a better NFL player than the #5 OL prospect.

You’ll hate this comparison, but I think it’s valid. It’s like a fantasy league draft. If the first 10 people take QBs, that first WR is looking really damn good.

The whole idea of BPA to me is to not be the chump that gets caught up in a run on a single position.

That’s why I’m saying take Bijan Robinson at 9. Won’t he be a better player in the NFL than Skoronski or Paris Johnson? Now is Robinson a better prospect than Jalen Carter? Well I don’t know about that one.

Kind of a lame argument. In 2020, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the first RB chosen. Is he a better player than Justin Jefferson who was the fifth WR chosen. Hell, he wasn't even the best RB chosen. Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Dobbins, and AJ Dillon were all chosen after him. For me, I'm not positive that Robinson is the best RB in this draft for us.



Can of surprised that those on the board clamoring for dumping Monty should now be extolling Robinson when there's a whole helluva lot more speed at the RB position in this class.

You now have the benefit of hindsight to make that claim. That doesn't exist on Draft Day. That also assumes that GMs chose players in what winds up being their actual performance order.

[IE]

I think the reality around the uncertainty of which RB will end up doing really well is enough reason to not commit top capital to the position. Ekeler. Aaron Jones. Lots of really good RBs in mid rounds.

The investment on a first round RB is just super luxurious. Bears are not in that position. And it is highly LIKELY Robinson would not be the top performing RB out of this draft. I can't say I'd be OK with it.

[thefish7]

@thefish7

We normally don't talk. What's up?

Yeah, I mostly lurk here... Was pretty active on one of the predecessor boards (monsters of the midway, I think it was called) but usually just come here to read what other fans are thinking. These days I'm in the totally wrong time zone to keep up with the banter.

Anyway, I just disagree that the Bears have missed major pieces. I think the two linemen we signed may be as good as the guys we missed. I fully expect another signings as well as a lot of picks.

Where we seen to be on the same page is the "super duper offense." I think this year can be all about offense and confirming fields is who we think he is. Need another lineman, I think (and I prefer a high pick on a center). I also like bijan if we really think he's a really special RB. The league has undervalued them (and LBs) but in my opinion these trends get overdone, regardless of sport. Everything old is new again and what not. I do agree that we have one more year to really take advantage of the rookie deal, but for me that means next year is the year to really go crazy. Still good reason to be prudent this year and let things develop a bit.

[UOK]

Was pretty active on one of the predecessor boards (monsters of the midway, I think it was called)

This board was started by a core group of members (myself included) who left Monsters of the Webway (or Webyway Monsters or whatever it was) after the admin lost his marbles.

[southdakbearfan]

Was pretty active on one of the predecessor boards (monsters of the midway, I think it was called)

This board was started by a core group of members (myself included) who left Monsters of the Webway (or Webyway Monsters or whatever it was) after the admin lost his marbles.

And I thank you in my mind every day and the other creators for this place.

[wab]

Having extra draft capital, rosters full of young players, and more than a “go sign everyone cost be damned” mentality is how you deal with the future when fields costs a ton.

Fields, no matter how much you or I believe he is going to be the real deal isn’t 100% proven and this team isn’t a piece or two from a Super Bowl.

I think we are going to the Super Bowl next season

10 days ago we thought we might have to do a wellness check on you. Your face/heel turns are impressive.

[wab]

The DL stuff is premature - and ignores that we did add multiple guys to the DL in FA (Not even counting the Draft)

The guy we got - should be in the same ballpark as Dremont Jones IMHO

He's probably a bit of what WAB was envisioning when he was championing Dremont Jones (*) to begin with

(*) I was absolutely UNAWARE of Jones until WAB brought him up (Ages ago in season)

But on Jones - part of the reason WAB liked him (AND WAB CORRECT ME IF ANY OF THIS IS OFF BASE PLEASE)

He was an ascending player (not a star) who presumably you could get more "reasonably" than a guy like Hargrave (technically he cost a decent chunk less than Hargrave regardless)

I think the initial presumptions were like maybe he's a guy you can get at like 8 million a year or maybe that pushes to 10 - Plus his comments suggest he is out on Denver - So he actually WILL make FA (always a worry until it happens)

And then FA comes - and he gets PAID - Basically a situation where he's underrated but then everyone notices he's underrated collectively - and ultimately becomes overrated

When one of the draws on a guy is that you might get him reasonably - and then that isn't the case - I do think that should change a bit of the calculus on a player.

Same with draft - there are definitely guys that project to the 3rd Round - that I'd be over the moon about - But if that 3rd Round grade suddenly means I need to use Pick #20 overall on him? That's not such a get anymore

Correct. I don’t see Walker as a significant drop off from Jones. Very similar players, similar career arc, still young and ascending.

Poles just bought the cheaper one.