Justin Fields Megathread - A story of Lovers and Haters

[Grizzled]

In the 'for what it's worth' department, here are 2nd year stats for Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields:

Hurts:
3,144 passing yards
16 touchdowns
9 interceptions
Completion percentage: 61.3%
Touchdown percentage of 3.7%
Yards per attempt: 7.3
784 rushing yards
10 rushing touchdowns
3,928 total yards
26 total touchdowns

Fields:
2,242 passing yards
17 passing touchdowns
11 interceptions
Completion percentage: 60.4%
Touchdown percentage: 5.3%
Yards per attempt: 7.1
1,143 rushing yards
8 rushing touchdowns
3,385 total yards
25 total touchdowns

Interesting, thanks! I think JF1 is right on schedule. We just need to get him some help and I see a big year coming up in 23!

Hopefully Poles emulates Howie Roseman and build both lines. OL to keep Fields upright and give more time to pass the ball. DL to take pressure off the offense to do everything. I see 2 guys with similar traits and mindsets and also think Fields can take the next step.

[malk]

In the 'for what it's worth' department, here are 2nd year stats for Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields:

Hurts:
3,144 passing yards
16 touchdowns
9 interceptions
Completion percentage: 61.3%
Touchdown percentage of 3.7%
Yards per attempt: 7.3
784 rushing yards
10 rushing touchdowns
3,928 total yards
26 total touchdowns

Fields:
2,242 passing yards
17 passing touchdowns
11 interceptions
Completion percentage: 60.4%
Touchdown percentage: 5.3%
Yards per attempt: 7.1
1,143 rushing yards
8 rushing touchdowns
3,385 total yards
25 total touchdowns

The posts that followed this are pretty much where I'm at, really promising but not guaranteed. The one thing I would pick out as missing from this comparison is that Y2 Hurts had an interception % of 2.1 whereas Fields has just had 3.5%, that's a bigger difference than comparing 9 to 11 interceptions might make it appear.

[bearsoldier]

[RichH55]

No one should ever question Fields work rate - the man puts in the work

[IE]

In the 'for what it's worth' department, here are 2nd year stats for Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields:

Hurts:
3,144 passing yards
16 touchdowns
9 interceptions
Completion percentage: 61.3%
Touchdown percentage of 3.7%
Yards per attempt: 7.3
784 rushing yards
10 rushing touchdowns
3,928 total yards
26 total touchdowns

Fields:
2,242 passing yards
17 passing touchdowns
11 interceptions
Completion percentage: 60.4%
Touchdown percentage: 5.3%
Yards per attempt: 7.1
1,143 rushing yards
8 rushing touchdowns
3,385 total yards
25 total touchdowns

The posts that followed this are pretty much where I'm at, really promising but not guaranteed. The one thing I would pick out as missing from this comparison is that Y2 Hurts had an interception % of 2.1 whereas Fields has just had 3.5%, that's a bigger difference than comparing 9 to 11 interceptions might make it appear.

I'm too lazy to go back and look at it situationally, but I'd bet that Hurts wasn't throwing INTs late in the game in desperate attempt to come back like JF1 was on occasion. Of his 11 JF1 threw 6 in the 4th quarter... so, less about his decision-making than desperation. With his fewer attempts a given INT also move the needle a lot more. So the desperation picks or silly ones like the clear throw-away like Hutch got at the end of the first half really skew his %. He DOES need to throw the ball away more - but those mistakes end up in sacks/yards not INTs.

Also on the rushing TDs, Hurts leads the league's best QB sneak offense and as a result he gets rushing TDs that on other teams often go to the RB. The stats make Hurts look competitive with JF1 in terms of running but they're not really the same. JF1 is WAY faster and is more productive getting so many more yards.

[malk]

The posts that followed this are pretty much where I'm at, really promising but not guaranteed. The one thing I would pick out as missing from this comparison is that Y2 Hurts had an interception % of 2.1 whereas Fields has just had 3.5%, that's a bigger difference than comparing 9 to 11 interceptions might make it appear.

I'm too lazy to go back and look at it situationally, but I'd bet that Hurts wasn't throwing INTs late in the game in desperate attempt to come back like JF1 was on occasion. Of his 11 JF1 threw 6 in the 4th quarter... so, less about his decision-making than desperation. With his fewer attempts a given INT also move the needle a lot more. So the desperation picks or silly ones like the clear throw-away like Hutch got at the end of the first half really skew his %. He DOES need to throw the ball away more - but those mistakes end up in sacks/yards not INTs.

Also on the rushing TDs, Hurts leads the league's best QB sneak offense and as a result he gets rushing TDs that on other teams often go to the RB. The stats make Hurts look competitive with JF1 in terms of running but they're not really the same. JF1 is WAY faster and is more productive getting so many more yards.

What the hell, let's have a quick look at the interceptions!

vs SFO

0-0 in the 1st. Awful throw, had time, into traffic, ugh.

@ GB

Down 17 late in the 4th trying to make something happen. Not ideal but you can live with it.

vs HOU

1st is 3 up in the 1st. Inaccurate, he'll want that back.
2nd is Tied at 20 at the start of the 4th. Deep shot to Mooney into traffic, risky and picked off but also 3rd and 6 so not that different to a bad punt lol.

@ WAS

Freaky one deflected off the helmet. Came at 0-0 in the 1st. Somewhat unlucky but I don't want to see him try and throw throw the lines like that too often.

@ NWE

Up 3 in the 2nd. Tipped, it happens.

vs DET

Down 7 in the 4th. Terrible not quite throwaway to pick 6. Ugh. But then had the amazing 67 yard TD run the very next play so all was forgiven!

@ ATL

Down 3 deep in the 4th, throws a catchable ball and Montgomery whiffs, good job the soft tank was on! Obviously this wasn't on Fields.

vs GB

1st is down 1 with 3:00 left in the 4th. Not great but not the best route by St Brown?
2nd is a heave to nothing with the game already lost. Again, ideally you'd see these come off but meh, they're fine.

@ DET

Down 14 in the 2nd, looked a bit lost by the lack of pass rush and made a bad decision.

So overall, I make:

5 bad ones, SFO, 2 vs HOU, the pick 6 vs DET and also the one in the 2nd DET game.
2 game lost heaves, both vs GB.
4 deflections/poor routes/missed catches: Helmet vs WAS, tip vs NWE, poor route by St Brown vs GB (being generous there) and the missed catch by Montgomery vs ATL.

Now you don't like to see even the heaves at the end of the game get intercepted, they're still not great throws. Then the ones that aren't on him are still part and parcel of the game, all QBs have that. But if I, pretty arbitrarily, take off the two heaves and 2 of the 4 ones on other players then it's 7 interceptions in his 318 attempts, 2.2%. That obviously looks a lot better.

[dplank]

Nice Malk thx

[malk]

Nice Malk thx

No worries!

Also @IE. Good point on Hurts' QB sneaks, that definitely a relevant detail in the comparison. Field's ability to take broken plays to the house is pretty unparalleled and that's a huge factor in all this.

[IE]

So overall, I make:

5 bad ones, SFO, 2 vs HOU, the pick 6 vs DET and also the one in the 2nd DET game.
2 game lost heaves, both vs GB.
4 deflections/poor routes/missed catches: Helmet vs WAS, tip vs NWE, poor route by St Brown vs GB (being generous there) and the missed catch by Montgomery vs ATL.

Now you don't like to see even the heaves at the end of the game get intercepted, they're still not great throws. Then the ones that aren't on him are still part and parcel of the game, all QBs have that. But if I, pretty arbitrarily, take off the two heaves and 2 of the 4 ones on other players then it's 7 interceptions in his 318 attempts, 2.2%. That obviously looks a lot better.

Wow that's an awesome use of your time for us!!

I can't improve on the analysis. I'll point out the story after the SFO game was even though it looked like JF1 threw it directly to the niner there was some explanation from Getsy after on why it wasn't that simple. Can't remember what it was, and not going to fret about that INT in that weird game.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

I couldn't see the point in starting another Justin Fields thread so thought I'd just revive this one.

Bears' Matt Eberflus on Justin Fields: 'All the things that come with that position, he exuded those traits'

The Bears are assembling a dangerous squad, and they're doing so around Justin Fields.

The club's blockbuster trade out of the No. 1 overall spot in the upcoming draft cemented Fields as the franchise cornerstone at quarterback, a decision head coach Matt Eberflus discussed with NFL Network's Judy Battista at the Annual League Meeting on Saturday.

"I was with him the whole year," Eberflus said. "I was in all the quarterback meetings. And I really spent the first year building that relationship with him as a head coach and quarterback. He just showed me grit and, toughness, work ethic, his teammates love him. All the things that come with that position, he exuded those traits for sure."
...

His pocket presence is still a work in progress, as evidenced by his league-worst 55 sacks taken and a middling 60.4 completion percentage, but the brass in Chicago can see enough in the tea leaves.

"I think it's like any position on our team," Eberflus said. "We all need to grow because we have a young football team. And he's no different. He just needs to keep working his game. He's working hard this offseason on his own. Looking at the tape from last year, looking at other quarterbacks, studying other quarterbacks in different situations. Third down, two-minute and all those various situations you get into. And he's doing a great job at that."
...

With Fields fine-tuning his game as the headliner of a team filled with young, still-evolving playmakers, the Bears have used the offseason to equip more proven talent.
...

Turning the No. 1 pick into two firsts and two second-round picks provides sufficient ammo for the coming years, but sweetening the pot with wide receiver D.J. Moore is exactly what Fields requires to take the next step.
...

Paired alongside the big-bodied Chase Claypool and a well-rounded speedster in Darnell Mooney, the Bears suddenly have a trio capable of attacking opposing secondaries in every which way.

"It's the skill," Eberflus said about how Moore's acquisition will help Fields' development. "The skill you put around a quarterback is awesome that we're doing this offseason. D.J. is one of those big pieces that we did acquire. D.J. is a great receiver. He's got great yardage after catch, great receiving yards per catch, all those things. He's a better person, though. I got a chance to eat dinner with him and visit with his family, and he's an outstanding young man."
...

"It's in a good spot," Eberflus said about his pre-draft roster. "It's in a lot better spot than it was at the end of the season, and we're certainly excited about the talent. Now it's up to us coaches to put those guys in position to make plays and bring them together as teammates."

Full article: https://www.nfl.com/news/bears-matt-ebe ... t-position

[HisRoyalSweetness]

GM Ryan Poles believes Bears ‘can have something special’ with Justin Fields
...

Speaking under a palm tree Monday at the NFL’s annual meeting, Poles explained why he chose his own quarterback over drafting one.

“I really needed something to take me so far above Justin where we didn’t want to look behind the curtain and see how this was going to play out,” he said. “I feel really good about Justin; still do. I think these quarterback prospects are going to have good careers, too.”

Keeping Fields was always, by far, the most likely outcome. But Poles said he owed it to the franchise to scout college quarterbacks — he couldn’t “completely shut the door” at the start of the process — before ruling out drafting one first overall. He communicated with Fields throughout the offseason about his plans, which is why he wound up texting him about Moore.

“I think having [Fields] in the building and seeing the progress he made in this first year, getting familiar with our system — obviously there’s special and athletic traits,” he said “We’ve seen in college his ability to use his arm too. I believe when all that comes together, we can have something special.”

The Bears weren’t blown away by the quarterback crop. Poles said the NFL Scouting Combine was the “last step” that sealed his decision to trade the pick. His staff had watched game film leading up to the combine that they felt didn’t compare to Fields.

“It always starts with the tape,” he said.
...

He’s excited about the weapons he’s given Fields at receiver: Moore, Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool.

“It’s just another playmaker on the field,” he said. “The one thing I really like is, we have three different types of receivers. We’ve got a guy [in Claypool] who’s a big-body guy that can play inside/outside. We have Mooney who can separate and run vertically and make plays. Then DJ is just a strong physical guy who can separate and make plays after the catch too. I like how everything’s set up. And then you throw [tight end] Cole [Kmet] in the mix, too.

“He has weapons.”

Full article: https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2023 ... nthers-nfl

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Coach Matt Eberflus says QB Justin Fields ‘needs to take that next step — as the rest of us do’

The Bears believe in quarterback Justin Fields, but they also believe he needs to improve on his performance from last season.

‘‘He took a step in the right direction,’’ coach Matt Eberflus said Tuesday at the NFL’s annual meetings. ‘‘Obviously, he made some dynamic plays that the whole league was talking about. And he did a really good job with that.

‘‘Just like our whole football team, it’s a young team, and he needs to take that next step — as the rest of us do.’’

To that end, Eberflus already has decided to tweak his practice schedule to try to fix an offense that ranked last in the NFL in passing yards last season.

When organized team activities begin in May, the Bears will extend the length of their seven-on-seven drills and pay added attention to two-minute, red-zone and third-down scenarios that require dynamic pass plays.

‘‘We’re going to set it up to work on the passing game, a little bit more emphasis on that during this offseason and then working into training camp,’’ Eberflus said.
...

Full article: https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2023 ... ryan-poles

[Grizzled]

He needs to stop thinking he needs to win the game on every play and learn to dump the ball off or toss it out of bounds instead of holding it so long. I don't know how they play to use his running ability this year, give him a green light every play or just planned runs. That would kind of suck, not seeing him snake his way through a ferocious pass rush for a 50+ yard run.

[UOK]

He needs to stop thinking he needs to win the game on every play and learn to dump the ball off or toss it out of bounds instead of holding it so long. I don't know how they play to use his running ability this year, give him a green light every play or just planned runs. That would kind of suck, not seeing him snake his way through a ferocious pass rush for a 50+ yard run.

The holding the ball for so long is a nearly direct indictment of how poor his receivers were last season. And there will absolutely be plenty of designed runs for Fields.

[thunderspirit]

The holding the ball for so long is a nearly direct indictment of how poor his receivers were last season. And there will absolutely be plenty of designed runs for Fields.

JF1 held onto the ball a long time at Ohio State, too, and his receivers weren't poor. I think it's part of who he is, always looking to hit the big play downfield.

That said: yes, there were several times he held the ball last year because the Bears' receivers didn't — or couldn't — get open. This was especially a problem early in the season, and was addressed to some degree by Fields running the ball more. His decision-making improved as the season went on, though, and I'm very hopeful that growth continues.

[dplank]

Rather than try to explain yet again why this issue is misrepresented and misunderstood, I’ll just let Fields coach at OSU do that for me.

. Day said, “For every sack, you’re going to get two or three extended plays,” meaning that If Fields is sacked three times in a game — like he was by the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday — there are another six to nine nice plays that he is also making, because he is extending plays beyond what a normal QB would be able to do.

So for every sack, Fields is finding a late-breaking wide receiver, scrambling for a first down, and/or letting a route develop long enough so that he can hit a WR deep; and for Day that tradeoff is worth it.

Now couple this quote with WRs that struggle to get open and an OL that struggles to hold blocks in pass protection, and there you are.

Making this a singular “Fields issue” is just wrong and misleading.

[Moriarty]

Rather than try to explain yet again why this issue is misrepresented and misunderstood, I’ll just let Fields coach at OSU do that for me.

. Day said, “For every sack, you’re going to get two or three extended plays,” meaning that If Fields is sacked three times in a game — like he was by the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday — there are another six to nine nice plays that he is also making, because he is extending plays beyond what a normal QB would be able to do.

So for every sack, Fields is finding a late-breaking wide receiver, scrambling for a first down, and/or letting a route develop long enough so that he can hit a WR deep; and for Day that tradeoff is worth it.

Now couple this quote with WRs that struggle to get open and an OL that struggles to hold blocks in pass protection, and there you are.

Making this a singular “Fields issue” is just wrong and misleading.

Yes, he held it a long time in college, because he was coached to.
He still does it now, because that's his habit and training.

When he was in college it worked well.
In the NFL it hasn't been working well.

You can blame teammates, but
You can't have the kind of talent superiority in the NFL that you have on a college powerhouse
Lots of things about the pro game differ from the collegiate.

Are there other pro QBs holding the ball a long time and doing well?
My impression is that ability to get the ball out quickly has always been highly sought after and correlated with pro success.

Don't have time to dig deeply, but fast looks here:
QB ratings https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-q ... -and-tiers
time https://preview.redd.it/gbe8kvdo3or91.p ... 4d0ab3bbb5

The top QBs all seem to be left or center, but not right

[thunderspirit]

Moreover, I don't think I misrepresented anything about Fields' tendency to hold onto the ball, nor did I call it wholly a Fields problem.

[dplank]

Well I'm (and coach Day) are making a different point. It's specific to athletic QB's like Fields or Lamar Jackson or Russell Wilson. You will hold the ball longer and you will take more sacks than the average quarterback - BUT - that is a necessity if you ALSO want the huge plays that those guys make. If you just throw the ball away quickly at the first sign of trouble, which is the easiest way to drop your TTT number, you also throw away any chance of making any of highlight reel plays that he makes every single week. And, according to coach Day, he will take that trade off so long as the good plays outnumber the "bad sacks". Bad sacks means the specific sacks that otherwise could have been avoided, this is not the same number as "total sacks". Every QB takes sacks, and sacks can be on the OL, the WR's, and the QB - so this ratio of big plays against bad sacks is specifically against those sacks that a quick throwaway type QB would not get sacked on but Justin does because he's trying to make a play and fails.

It's a different way of looking at it. And it's how you need to look at it with certain QB's, Fields is one of those QB's.

The point here is that you guys have oversimplified the view on sacks and TTT IMO. TTT isn't an automatic good thing. High sacks may not be the worst thing in the world, and if you have a hyper focus on that one thing, you may very well kneecap his playmaking ability. There's a trade off that needs to be considered, but I think that discussion doesn't occur when the problem is oversimplified like this.

No one wants a check down charlie. Big plays require risk. Risk means sometimes you lose (bad sack) and sometimes you win (big scramble). If you lack weapons and good protection, that amplifies your risk unfortunately. We can all hope that he minimizes those bad sacks as he becomes a more efficient player, he's not without criticism here - there are absolutely plays where he needs to realize there's just nothing there and get rid of it. We can all agree on that.

[Grizzled]

He needs to stop thinking he needs to win the game on every play and learn to dump the ball off or toss it out of bounds instead of holding it so long. I don't know how they play to use his running ability this year, give him a green light every play or just planned runs. That would kind of suck, not seeing him snake his way through a ferocious pass rush for a 50+ yard run.

The holding the ball for so long is a nearly direct indictment of how poor his receivers were last season. And there will absolutely be plenty of designed runs for Fields.

Nearly. The WRs were not a strong group last season, to put it politiely. But if they weren't getting open, he's been playing long enough to know he only had a limited amount of time before the defenders were on him and he should have been tossing it away or dumping it off if a RB was open. It will be interesting to see how they incorporate his phenomenal running abilities into the offense this year. It would be foolish to tamp them down too much while balancing keeping him upright and injury-free.

[dplank]

…or, instead of throwing it away, he could make an incredible scramble fur a first down.

[LacertineForest]

…or, instead of throwing it away, he could make an incredible scramble fur a first down.

Exactly - there's a balance there, and hopefully with more experience and mastery of the offense, he'll figure out when to take a shot downfield, when to check it down, and when to take off more consistently. If he can put that together regularly, there isn't much anyone can do to stop him.

I agree with the argument regarding the risk/reward for the huge play - I don't want to take that out of his game, but hopefully there's just some refinement to it that allows him to better discern when to take that big risk and avoid the negatives as much as possible.

[dplank]

I think I need to show some video to make this point clear.

What several posters here are saying is that on this play, you'd like to see Justin throw the ball away. This was a designed play to Mooney in the flat, who was covered. I'm saying, I'd rather see him do this than throw the ball away when Mooney was taken away and 4 defenders were approaching him, and I'm willing to accept the fact that sometimes in his attempt to do things like this he will take sacks. If you insist he play safer and throw this ball away, you are "Nagy'ing" him IMO. You gotta let him play his game, take the good with the bad, and hope the good outweighs the bad. And I will again point back to Coach Day, who said exactly that. You can't define certain players and force them into your mold. Mac Jones needs to throw that ball away, Justin Fields need to do what we see here. They are different players and need to be coached/evaluated differently. Yes, Mac Jones will take less sacks. Also yes, Justin Fields will make more big plays. I choose big plays.

[RichH55]

I was never the high guy on Russell Wilson - and that team always, always did better the less they expected out of him

But he's not really a comp for Fields either. They play a different style and Wilson is nowhere NEAR that level of athlete

Holding onto the ball is MOSTLY a QB issue. It's the nature of the beast. There isn't anyone else throwing the ball. The overall point that - hey, you take the bad with the good - And as long as the good outweighs the bad? Great.

Fields had his most success last year - and it was impressive - when they were "borrowing" Lamar Jackson concepts - this shouldn't come as a surprise

[RichH55]

The notion that he's just holding onto the ball instead of getting rid of it - Just absolutely misses the point

He's consistently slow - on plays that are there - some that are even made - but you when you are watching - A reasonable fan is thinking "Ball's gotta be out (*). - Or that should have been out faster.

(*) The fan has the luxury of not being chased by Big- Pharma's finest mind you

It's not merely on he's holding on occasionally trying to make something happen (some of his biggest plays BTW - mainly Runs - WERE quick decisions - so it wasn't like it was a coin flip between TD and Sack every play either)

The Ohio State stuff - "Fields, for all his agility and elusiveness on the run, was sacked an alarming 56 times in his college career while attempting 618 passes — or once every 12.0 pass plays. "

I think over the last two years CJ Stroud was sacked 13 times and 12 times? And that was like 830 Pass Attempts

That is NOT apples to apples of course - but it still gives an interesting snapshot (Unless we think that tOSU just changed everything up and was like "Maybe I wont tell my QB to take Sacks?"

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

He’s a winner, a play-maker. You can’t coach that. You can coach passing and reading plays, but Fields has that mercurial talent to turn chicken shit into chicken chasseur.

I don’t want a robotic passing machine, I’d rather watch someone who can do something totally incredible at any moment. That’s Justin Fields.

[RichH55]

He’s a winner, a play-maker. You can’t coach that. You can coach passing and reading plays, but Fields has that mercurial talent to turn chicken shit into chicken chasseur.

I don’t want a robotic passing machine, I’d rather watch someone who can do something totally incredible at any moment. That’s Justin Fields.

He hasn't won anything yet. Again - I don't even think he won a High School State Championship.

I do admit to my personal bias though - my template on QBs are the robotic passing machines like Peyton Manning or the especially robot like Tom Brady

The anything great can happen anytime is too much like Jazz for my taste

Though ultimately it only matters you get in the End Zone - the method overall tends to matter less (This is more complicated than that)

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

He’s a winner, a play-maker. You can’t coach that. You can coach passing and reading plays, but Fields has that mercurial talent to turn chicken shit into chicken chasseur.

I don’t want a robotic passing machine, I’d rather watch someone who can do something totally incredible at any moment. That’s Justin Fields.

He hasn't won anything yet. Again - I don't even think he won a High School State Championship.

I do admit to my personal bias though - my template on QBs are the robotic passing machines like Peyton Manning or the especially robot like Tom Brady

The anything great can happen anytime is too much like Jazz for my taste

Though ultimately it only matters you get in the End Zone - the method overall tends to matter less (This is more complicated than that)

I’m more entertained by Fields than the Brady/Manning style.

So you can throw a ball straight. Big wow?

[RichH55]

He hasn't won anything yet. Again - I don't even think he won a High School State Championship.

I do admit to my personal bias though - my template on QBs are the robotic passing machines like Peyton Manning or the especially robot like Tom Brady

The anything great can happen anytime is too much like Jazz for my taste

Though ultimately it only matters you get in the End Zone - the method overall tends to matter less (This is more complicated than that)

I’m more entertained by Fields than the Brady/Manning style.

So you can throw a ball straight. Big wow?

I read this in your Shania Twain voice

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I’m more entertained by Fields than the Brady/Manning style.

So you can throw a ball straight. Big wow?

I read this in your Shania Twain voice

That’s what I was hoping for