Poll: Addressing RB

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Just makes it a bit weird (although Poles is not always conventional) to sign 2 RBs in FA if you plan to draft one at #9

[thefish7]

I'm on team Bijan, though it'd be very unconventional. I'd survive a pick of Bijan at 9. Even better would be a trade down to like 15 and then a pick of Bijan...

[The Marshall Plan]

Just makes it a bit weird (although Poles is not always conventional) to sign 2 RBs in FA if you plan to draft one at #9

This is what concerns me.

It's too bad that good old BPA Poles isn't practicing what he preaches about this.

I'd love to hear an argument for Skoronski being a more impactful better pro than Robinson.

If someone is making an argument that Skoronski is going to be a 5 to 7 year high quality LT, then I totally respect that angle.

But if the logic is to draft a RT at 9, I'm not seeing how that's a BPA that warrants passing up someone who could be Marshall Faulk in this offense.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

This guy looks like a day 1 genuine offensive threat.
Draft him in R1 and your run game is set for 5 years barring injury. He also seems like a good receiver.

Then we have 3 other running backs, 4 if you include Ebner, with a ton of other needs. Then there’s VJJ too.

If you can trade back to 17 and 32 from Pittsburgh and get Bijan at 17 then I’m in.

Risk he’s not there so having 3 already mitigates the risk.

[HurricaneBear]

Here's the problem with a running back this early. They have to be a top 5 back within a year or two and by the end of their rookie contract they need to be the best back in football because they will be paid like a top back even on their rookie deal. And by the point the second contract comes around, you really shouldn't be paying them as much as they will want.

And on top of it, running backs get hurt. Take Saquon as a warning. Great back, one of the best in the league, but that pick was a failure by the Giants.

Robinsons got talent. He would be hell of exciting to watch. But odds are far more likely he's a failed pick at 9 then a success. Far far more likely.

[dplank]

Here's the problem with a running back this early. They have to be a top 5 back within a year or two and by the end of their rookie contract they need to be the best back in football because they will be paid like a top back even on their rookie deal. And by the point the second contract comes around, you really shouldn't be paying them as much as they will want.

And on top of it, running backs get hurt. Take Saquon as a warning. Great back, one of the best in the league, but that pick was a failure by the Giants.

Robinsons got talent. He would be hell of exciting to watch. But odds are far more likely he's a failed pick at 9 then a success. Far far more likely.

I agree it’s a luxury pick and we are a team that is still under construction so it’s not a good fit. Plus, we have Foreman and Herbert, which I believe is a solid RBBC. Drafting Bijan benches both those dudes, Bijan is a volume back. It makes no sense to Poles plan IMO.

I don’t worry much about the contract cost side, RBs don’t make enough money for me to worry if he’s a slight overpay by Y4/5.

[Atkins&Rebel]

I believe that Foreman/Herbert/Fields will be the RBs this year. I’d love to have Robinson and even pined for him a bit in the draft forum, but I don’t see spending money on Foreman if they have any intention of taking Robinson at 9.
If we trade down again and the guy is there, and we grab him that would be a huge bonus and I wouldn’t mind at all. Nothing is for certain in the draft.

[dplank]

I think a more succinct POV from me is simply that I think a RT will do a lot more for this offense than a RB will. And there are several prospects that fit that RT need where we are picking at 9.

[Atkins&Rebel]

I think a more succinct POV from me is simply that I think a RT will do a lot more for this offense than a RB will. And there are several prospects that fit that RT need where we are picking at 9.

Honestly, a 1-2 year rental on an older plug and play FA would do more than a rookie that has any kind of learning curve. There aren't any blue chip RTs in the draft this year that I feel like are better than the DE or DT prospects that are available in the same expected ranges.

[The Marshall Plan]

Ultimately what I think happens is another trade down.

Our first few picks are:
R1:9
R2: 55
R3: 65

That's a huge gap from 9 to 55 and I think Poles is going to fill it.

Look for another trade down to the teens in the first and then another second between 9 and 55 with us giving up a low rounder to even it out.

If we're going OL at 9 and standing our ground then the pick is Paris Johnson. He's our LT. I know Braxton Jones is a sacred cow for some people but he can move over to RT depending on how the camp competition goes.

[IE]

Ultimately what I think happens is another trade down.

Our first few picks are:
R1:9
R2: 55
R3: 65

That's a huge gap from 9 to 55 and I think Poles is going to fill it.

Look for another trade down to the teens in the first and then another second between 9 and 55 with us giving up a low rounder to even it out.

If we're going OL at 9 and standing our ground then the pick is Paris Johnson. He's our LT. I know Braxton Jones is a sacred cow for some people but he can move over to RT depending on how the camp competition goes.

Braxton Jones is an ascending top LT. Why would you assume Paris Johnson can do better when the top LTs in last years draft couldn't do better than Brax? Makes no sense, dude. It isn't sacred cow it's just true. He's real.

Most team's picks are 32 apart so even though the Bear gap is 45 it isn't horrible like having no pick at all in a round. The Bears having TWO seconds (not one) is strength. I agree trading down could help make it even better if they can still get the players they want. I'd also favor trading back up into the first if they have "conviction".

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Brax Jones is no Jack Sanborn

[The Marshall Plan]

Ultimately what I think happens is another trade down.

Our first few picks are:
R1:9
R2: 55
R3: 65

That's a huge gap from 9 to 55 and I think Poles is going to fill it.

Look for another trade down to the teens in the first and then another second between 9 and 55 with us giving up a low rounder to even it out.

If we're going OL at 9 and standing our ground then the pick is Paris Johnson. He's our LT. I know Braxton Jones is a sacred cow for some people but he can move over to RT depending on how the camp competition goes.

Braxton Jones is an ascending top LT. Why would you assume Paris Johnson can do better when the top LTs in last years draft couldn't do better than Brax? Makes no sense, dude. It isn't sacred cow it's just true. He's real.

Most team's picks are 32 apart so even though the Bear gap is 45 it isn't horrible like having no pick at all in a round. The Bears having TWO seconds (not one) is strength. I agree trading down could help make it even better if they can still get the players they want. I'd also favor trading back up into the first if they have "conviction".

Braxton Jones is a fifth round draft choice starting at arguably the 2nd most important position on the team for a team that went 3-14. I'm not convinced that he can't be upgraded. I also don't think it upsets the apple cart to draft a proven high performer like Paris Johnson and move Jones over. You never know how camp shakes out either. Maybe Jones beats him handily in camp and Johnson starts at RT. The worst thing that happens is Jones proves himself and then we have studs at the bookend positions on the line.

This team has one true sacred cow. JF1. Everybody else gets the stink eye and if we can upgrade them we do it.

[The Marshall Plan]

Brax Jones is no Jack Sanborn

Who is?

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I think the next cult hero coming from nowhere to “Sanborn” is going to be Leatherwood.

In fact he’s my early call for Bears MVP 2023

[UOK]

I think the next cult hero coming from nowhere to “Sanborn” is going to be Leatherwood.

In fact he’s my early call for Bears MVP 2023

[wab]

Man I don’t know. This team still has too many holes at important positions to be drafting a RB in the top 10.

[southdakbearfan]

Man I don’t know. This team still has too many holes at important positions to be drafting a RB in the top 10.

Exactly. That would be an insane use of a top ten pick, especially in this year’s draft.

[dplank]

Between Tyree + Carter on one side of the ball and Paris + Broderick on the other - at least one of these guys (likely 2) will be available to us at 9. All are elite prospects at positions of great need. No need to overthink this one IMO.

[wab]

Man I don’t know. This team still has too many holes at important positions to be drafting a RB in the top 10.

Exactly. That would be an insane use of a top ten pick, especially in this year’s draft.

From a prospect standpoint, he might be like the 3rd best one in the draft. So I understand the appeal.

But I just can’t get behind it now. A month ago, heck yeah. But a lot has (and hasn’t) happened since then.

[o-pus #40 in B major]

Yeah why would anyone want too many elite skill players on the offense - that's always been a recipe for disaster.

[UOK]

Yeah why would anyone want too many elite skill players on the offense - that's always been a recipe for disaster.

[southdakbearfan]

Yeah why would anyone want too many elite skill players on the offense - that's always been a recipe for disaster.

Does it matter how good the RB is if the RT ends up in his lap as he is taking the handoff?

Herbert - 5.7 ypc
Foreman - 4.5 ypc

How many RBs do they need capable of shouldering the load.

Having a bottom tier RT seems like a lot bigger risk to the offense than a debatable potential upgrade at HB.

[dplank]

Yeah why would anyone want too many elite skill players on the offense - that's always been a recipe for disaster.

Does it matter how good the RB is if the RT ends up in his lap as he is taking the handoff?

It also ignores the performance gap from what we currently have. Foreman and Herbert are a pretty darn good pairing IMO. Bijan is probably better (that's not certain at all but giving benefit of doubt here), but how much better than what we have? Not that much. It'd be different if we didn't already have a solid RBBC setup, but the fact is we do.

On the other hand, the current starting RT if the season started today would likely be Larry Borom. That's not good. Paris or Broderick are probably huge upgrades to Borom (also not certainty because rookies never are, but giving the same benefit of doubt here as Bijan).

Then there's also the link effect on OL that doesn't exist with RB in the same manner. I subscribe to the weakest link theory of OL, where the OL unit is only as good as it's worst player. Now I don't take the literally, you can cover up bad players and help them and all that, but as a generalized statement I believe this is true. RB has no such correlation as a position group, only one guy runs the ball at a time vs needing 5 guys blocking in unison.

Bijan takes playing time away from good players. A rookie RT takes playing time away from a bad player.

[The Cooler King]

Does it matter how good the RB is if the RT ends up in his lap as he is taking the handoff?

It also ignores the performance gap from what we currently have. Foreman and Herbert are a pretty darn good pairing IMO. Bijan is probably better (that's not certain at all but giving benefit of doubt here), but how much better than what we have? Not that much. It'd be different if we didn't already have a solid RBBC setup, but the fact is we do.

On the other hand, the current starting RT if the season started today would likely be Larry Borom. That's not good. Paris or Broderick are probably huge upgrades to Borom (also not certainty because rookies never are, but giving the same benefit of doubt here as Bijan).

Then there's also the link effect on OL that doesn't exist with RB in the same manner. I subscribe to the weakest link theory of OL, where the OL unit is only as good as it's worst player. Now I don't take the literally, you can cover up bad players and help them and all that, but as a generalized statement I believe this is true. RB has no such correlation as a position group, only one guy runs the ball at a time vs needing 5 guys blocking in unison.

Bijan takes playing time away from good players. A rookie RT takes playing time away from a bad player.

I think very narrowly these points are all true. But I do think the bigger picture is Bijan brings a dynamic ceiling that's pretty rare. If they're serious about say a 2024/25 Super Bowl run a skill group led by Fields/Bijan/Moore has out of world potential. Throw volume at RT or cover in 2024 FA.

I don't want to see Bijan. But part of me does get the sales pitch on him.

[Yogi da Bear]

Yeah why would anyone want too many elite skill players on the offense - that's always been a recipe for disaster.

Does it matter how good the RB is if the RT ends up in his lap as he is taking the handoff?

Herbert - 5.7 ypc
Foreman - 4.5 ypc

How many RBs do they need capable of shouldering the load.

Having a bottom tier RT seems like a lot bigger risk to the offense than a debatable potential upgrade at HB.

How come it is that everybody always seems to be forgetting about Homer?

[The Grizzly One]

Yeah why would anyone want too many elite skill players on the offense - that's always been a recipe for disaster.

The thing is Juice and Foreman are not only NOT chopped liver but are actually high quality. And has been said, we have so many needs that are low quality, it doesn't make logical sense.

[UOK]

[HisRoyalSweetness]

More details on Montgomery negotiations and how Poles sees the RBs:

Ryan Poles on David Montgomery leaving: ‘Players do have a choice’

The Bears thought they made a competitive offer to keep running back David Montgomery. Then he signed a three-year deal with the Lions for similar money: $18 million.

“I would just kind of sum it up by saying players do have a choice,” Poles said Monday at the NFL’s annual meetings. “I thought we communicated well, I thought we negotiated well. At the same time, you don’t always know what’s going on in the background. But I thought we did a good job, we were transparent, we were organized and it just, it didn’t happen.”
...

He presumes Montgomery will be motivated when he faces the Bears twice a year.

“Especially David, right?” he said. “He definitely is going to run with a chip on his shoulder, so we’ll be ready for that. But I communicated with him, too. Happy for him. He’s a guy I’ve respected since he was at Iowa State and I love the way he runs. So, it’s all good.”

The Bears gave former Panthers running back D’Onta Foreman a one-year, $2 million deal to take Montgomery’s place.

“I liked the style and the scheme — that fits well,” he said. “Good vision, burst. I love that he can finish runs with speed. So he’ll have a good opportunity to help us out.”

He’ll rotate with Khalil Herbert.

“I think it’s healthy to have a two-back system, guys that can rotate in and out, different styles like we’ve had before,” he said.

Full article: https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2023 ... ta-foreman

Certainly sounds like Monty's departure was about more than the money. I wonder if if the Lions plan to use him more as a feature back rather than as part of a rotation and whether that was a key factor.

This apparent commitment to a two-back system would certainly make drafting Robinson with a top 10 pick a surprise.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Interesting. It seems as if our NFC North rivals hold Montgomery in higher regard than many members of this forum.

Shame he stayed in the division. At least he didn't join the Packers!