R4 P133: Tyler Scott, WR - Cincinnati

[crueltyabc]

Guys. The Bears only had two receivers under contract in 2024 before this pick.

Mooney sustained a pretty bad injury and VJJ had a pretty long learning curve.

I remember like 8 months ago when people were complaining that the Bears only had one good WR. Now people are worried that the Bears are 5 guys deep.

Mooney and Claypool will be too expensive to retain and/or they will get beat out by a day 3 rookie. There's apparently no chance that DJ Moore is the star and everyone else is just a decent supporting cast even though that would seem to be the most likely outcome.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Bingo. Mooney's had less than squat at QB so far in his career, and he's had a bigger impact than anyone has had a right to expect from him. He's also got a very nice set of release moves, and Scott...is a rookie (one who'll be easy to bully off the line until he develops his own, roughly Mooney-level, set of releases).

So Justin Fields was Mooney's QB for like half of his career. I hope JF1 is more than squat. And I'm not convinced Andy Dalton hurt Mooney's performance in his 7 games - he had no problem with Olave. It isn't the QB.

Last year before Pool came in Mooney was effectively invisible to start the season. I don't want to hear about his release and set of skills when a 3rd year vet can't help his young QB across a good chunk of games like that. He brought nothing to the table that other higher ceiling players with less experience couldn't bring - and that was my point re: Velus and Scott. His replacement level really isn't high at all, and it is fine to assume that higher potential guys brought in over the last 2 years could do what he can do, and more - for a LOT less.

I like Darnell Mooney as a guy and appreciate what he's done given the circumstances and with a few really nicee catches he's made now & again. But I'm just not going to be one to pretend he's got some remarkable ability, or that he is anything more than a completely average WR who through happenstance ended up with WAY more opportunity than he should have had. He's a WR3 who was forced into higher level duty and did just OK. He's basically Tom Waddle in '91- '93. But guess what? It is now '94 and Jeff Graham and Curtis Conway are now on the team. So...

We all hope Fields is more than squat, but he hasn't been a productive NFL passer to date. The reason for that cannot be placed at the feet of one WR.

I'm just not buying this narrative you're selling about Mooney being invisible until Claypool was brought in. First of all, through the first 3 games the Bears passing offense was abysmal. The first game was played in a monsoon and no receiver was ever going to be putting up remotely notable numbers in those conditions. In the next game Fields attempted a grand total of 11 passes and threw for 70 yards. Mooney only had 5 passes thrown his way in those two games. The week after that Fields attempted 17, completed less than half, threw two picks and finished with a woeful passer rating of 27.7. Mooney alone cannot be held responsible for that mess.

Once things picked up a little he was back up to his usual level of production:

4 catches, 94 yards (23.5 ypc)
2 catches, 52 yards (26.0 ypc)
7 catches, 68 yards (9.7 ypc)
3 catches, 53 yards (17.7 ypc)
5 catches, 70 yards, (14.0 ypc)

That's an average of 4.2 catches and 67.4 yards a game with 16ypc. (That ypc would seem to indicate that he posed a threat deep, especially when you look at the individual game averages.) It's not exceptional but at that rate he'd be at around 71 catches and 1,145 yards for the season, which incidentally are the sort of numbers DJ Moore has put up in his best years.

After Claypool's arrival, Mooney had 3 games before his season-ending injury:

7 catches, 43 yards (6.1 ypc)
4 catches, 57 yards (14.3 ypc)
4 catches, 29 yards (7.3 ypc)

His production, particularly his ypc, fell after Claypool's arrival the exact opposite of what you are claiming happened.

He caught two-thirds of the passes thrown his way in 2022 and had two drops.

It is absolutely not "fine to assume that higher potential guys brought in over the last 2 years could do what he can do, and more". We can't assume anything about unproven players. Jones had some chances last year (159 offensive snaps). He was a healthy scratch for two games and caught only half of the 14 passes thrown his way. It's not like he did anything to suggest he should be taking playing time away from Mooney. As for Scott, we haven't even seen the kid play in the NFL yet. He's just been drafted 133rd overall, the 17th WR in his draft class.

Comparing them to Jeff Graham and Curtis Conway (and man that's going back a ways!) is bizarre. Graham was a 2nd round pick (46th overall) and Conway was drafted 7th overall. They were far superior prospects to Jones and Scott.

Even then Graham didn't do well his first 3 seasons (1 catch for 2 yards in 13 games as a rookie, 49 for 711 in year 2 with a 52% catch rate, 38 for 579 yards with a terrible 38.6% catch rate). It wasn't until he came to Chicago that he broke out and he was gone two years later. Conway didn't break out until his third year either.

It's fine to hope, but let's not get ahead of ourselves in projecting great or even good things for Jones and Scott. Neither may amount to anything.

Let's also not forget that Mooney had 4.38 speed coming out of college, which is faster that Scott's 4.44 combine time. Hopefully his injury hasn't robbed him of that.

[IE]

You're always good for the best possible view of the stats to support your case. I could produce the same sort of "impressive" results for Tom Waddle back in the day. He's a Bear legend to this day, thanks to being the tallest... um, "little person" from '91-'93.

I wasn't comparing VJJ and Scott to Conway and Graham - I was saying that's what the Bears have now in DJ and Pool. Mooney IS Waddle, who feasted on way more volume than a player of his ilk ever should have warranted for 3 years... and then resumed his role as WR3 when Conway and Graham came into their roles.

Not coincidentally, that is whey the Bears went to the playoffs - just like they're going to this year with real weapons. Apologize for talking about 30 years ago like it was yesterday - but to me it seems like it, and you'll see what I mean at some point.

My entire argument here is centered around COST / production, by the way. I wouldn't have a thing to say nor a problem with him, if I didn't see people seriously contemplating paying him over $10MM (up to $15MM!). Just no way. He's gotta get 1000 yards on 60 catches and score a lot of TDs to warrant that. And I don't see it, given the situation.

I could be wrong.

[Bearfacts]

You're always good for the best possible view of the stats to support your case. I could produce the same sort of "impressive" results for Tom Waddle back in the day. He's a Bear legend to this day, thanks to being the tallest... um, "little person" from '91-'93.

I wasn't comparing VJJ and Scott to Conway and Graham - I was saying that's what the Bears have now in DJ and Pool. Mooney IS Waddle, who feasted on way more volume than a player of his ilk ever should have warranted for 3 years... and then resumed his role as WR3 when Conway and Graham came into their roles.

Not coincidentally, that is whey the Bears went to the playoffs - just like they're going to this year with real weapons. Apologize for talking about 30 years ago like it was yesterday - but to me it seems like it, and you'll see what I mean at some point.

My entire argument here is centered around COST / production, by the way. I wouldn't have a thing to say nor a problem with him, if I didn't see people seriously contemplating paying him over $10MM (up to $15MM!). Just no way. He's gotta get 1000 yards on 60 catches and score a lot of TDs to warrant that. And I don't see it, given the situation.

I could be wrong.

As mine has been a well.

For me pure pure logic seems to indicate drafting Scott was a hedge against two things; 1) that post injury Mooney doesn't return to form, and 2) that he can't be extended for what Poles feels is a fair offer for how the Bears envision his future performance. Until he's able to practice and play again at 100% again it may be tough to even determine what a fair offer may be. We'll have to see.

As far as Claypool goes it's tough for me to see Poles having spent what amounted to being the top 2nd round pick in this draft for him in trade and not being interested in extending him. Maybe if he'd spent a mid round pick trading for him yeah, not the 32nd pick in this draft. In addition physically he fits precisely the type of player they value. Big, long, fast and athletic with previous production.

Not in any way to put down Darnell Mooney but IMHO it's far easier to find his type of WR in the middle rounds of an NFL draft than a WR like Claypool as the drafting Scott would indicate than a Chase Claypool as the drafting of Mooney himself would also indicate. I don't want him gone but if his asking price is above Poles MV for him what other option is there?

[IE]

You're always good for the best possible view of the stats to support your case. I could produce the same sort of "impressive" results for Tom Waddle back in the day. He's a Bear legend to this day, thanks to being the tallest... um, "little person" from '91-'93.

I wasn't comparing VJJ and Scott to Conway and Graham - I was saying that's what the Bears have now in DJ and Pool. Mooney IS Waddle, who feasted on way more volume than a player of his ilk ever should have warranted for 3 years... and then resumed his role as WR3 when Conway and Graham came into their roles.

Not coincidentally, that is whey the Bears went to the playoffs - just like they're going to this year with real weapons. Apologize for talking about 30 years ago like it was yesterday - but to me it seems like it, and you'll see what I mean at some point.

My entire argument here is centered around COST / production, by the way. I wouldn't have a thing to say nor a problem with him, if I didn't see people seriously contemplating paying him over $10MM (up to $15MM!). Just no way. He's gotta get 1000 yards on 60 catches and score a lot of TDs to warrant that. And I don't see it, given the situation.

I could be wrong.

As mine has been a well.

For me pure pure logic seems to indicate drafting Scott was a hedge against two things; 1) that post injury Mooney doesn't return to form, and 2) that he can't be extended for what Poles feels is a fair offer for how the Bears envision his future performance. Until he's able to practice and play again at 100% again it may be tough to even determine what a fair offer may be. We'll have to see.

As far as Claypool goes it's tough for me to see Poles having spent what amounted to being the top 2nd round pick in this draft for him in trade and not being interested in extending him. Maybe if he'd spent a mid round pick trading for him yeah, not the 32nd pick in this draft. In addition physically he fits precisely the type of player they value. Big, long, fast and athletic with previous production.

Not in any way to put down Darnell Mooney but IMHO it's far easier to find his type of WR in the middle rounds of an NFL draft than a WR like Claypool as the drafting Scott would indicate than a Chase Claypool as the drafting of Mooney himself would also indicate. I don't want him gone but if his asking price is above Poles MV for him what other option is there?

Yep Yep and Yep

Poles doesn't just do BPA he does it by position and need, as a combo priority. Scott was need as a hedge plus great value. By the way I also think he's a hedge on Velus. A really good one.

I do think Pool has an advantage as he's Poles' investment. I believe Poles will cut bait at some point but if he can re-sign Pool he will - as long as it isn't silly money.

The main problem with Mooney is the money he's going to want. He's going to want to be paid on past production that shouldn't have happened - where he's gotten far more opportunity than what he normally should have earned by being a 15+ypc guy or homerun hitter. He's priced himself out of the market for what he is. I think Poles is likely going to do what he did with Monty, where he has a price he thinks he's worth and then the player goes out to find more. And some team WILL get caught up in Mooney's few highlight catches combined with the yardage, ignore the volume & sign him for too much.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

You're always good for the best possible view of the stats to support your case.

And you sometimes make assertions to support your case that are not backed up by the stats.

I wasn't comparing VJJ and Scott to Conway and Graham - I was saying that's what the Bears have now in DJ and Pool.

Ah, that makes more sense! Sad that we have to go back 3 decades to find a comp though isn't it? Hopefully this is the start of something new.

Apologize for talking about 30 years ago like it was yesterday - but to me it seems like it, and you'll see what I mean at some point.

Hey, you and me both! No need to apologise.

My entire argument here is centered around COST / production, by the way. I wouldn't have a thing to say nor a problem with him, if I didn't see people seriously contemplating paying him over $10MM (up to $15MM!). Just no way. He's gotta get 1000 yards on 60 catches and score a lot of TDs to warrant that. And I don't see it, given the situation.

I could be wrong.

My entire argument is simply to wait and see how things pan out and not assert that players who are completely unproven are better than one who actually has some production under his belt. Between Mooney, Claypool, Jones and Scott it should be interesting. Competition is good and with the first two in contract years there is everything for them to play for. We'll know more about their respective worth by the end of the year if not sooner.

Regarding the $10m to $15m range, that's just what WRs with Mooney's, and Claypool's, type of production get paid these days. According to spotrac there are a dozen earning in that range and, outside of Odell Beckham and Michael Thomas who both signed one-year deals following injury issues, none of them have numbers to write home about. Only Courtland Sutton who's at the top of that group at $15.2m has even made a Pro Bowl and he's the 22nd highest paid WR by annual average. The top guys get double what this tier of players do.

If either Mooney or Claypool (or both - it's the offseason, let's be optimistic!) put up even 800 yards then they will certainly be worth that $10m to $15m valuation according to the current market. Whether Poles pays one, other, neither or both would then come down to what he considers to be fair value. We've already seen that he sticks to his guns and won't pay more than that. The performances of Jones and Scott would certainly factor into his decision too.

I for one wouldn't object to having a trio of young, proven WRs on the team for another couple of years. A strong receiving corps in a pass-happy league would be no bad thing. Poles has money to spend and with Moore's cap hits being relatively modest thanks to the guarantees Carolina has already paid, plus another two WRs on cheap rookie deals, it's not entirely out of the realms of possibility although it is definitely unlikely.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Wide receiver Tyler Scott, a fourth-round draft pick, is eager to give Justin Fields the deep threat the Bears need.

“A lot of people talk about my speed [4.37 in the 40 at Cincinnati’s pro day] and my deep-threat ability,” Scott said. “I know he likes to throw the ball pretty deep. It’s my job to make his job easier and make him great — as one of my coaches said, put his name in the newspaper.”

https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2023 ... it-someone

[Moriarty]

This is my favorite pick of the Bear draft, even without the PR or slot experience that a guy like him so obviously could have used. Especially now that we've learned more about Mooney's timetable being pushed back.

He wasn't on my short list - but that's because I assumed he would be gone before the Bears ought to be targeting WR.

Great value at a position where we needed depth and a draft slot where going for starters wasn't an issue.