Justin Fields Megathread - A story of Lovers and Haters

[dplank]

Call it what you want, but you've been pretty incessantly negative about him for over a week now. Over 12 fucking throws man - 12 throws!!! You are WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY overthinking this. Smoke a doobie and relax until Week 1, and MAYBE we'll give you a seat back on the bus when Fields tears up the Peckers.

All good natured ribbing of course.

I think the problem IE is trying to articulate is that those 12 throws are pretty similar to some of the 588 throws he has already made.

The sample size, preseason no less, makes it an utterly useless point. Supporter card is hereby revoked!

[IE]

Call it what you want, but you've been pretty incessantly negative about him for over a week now. Over 12 fucking throws man - 12 throws!!! You are WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY overthinking this. Smoke a doobie and relax until Week 1, and MAYBE we'll give you a seat back on the bus when Fields tears up the Peckers.

All good natured ribbing of course.

I think the problem IE is trying to articulate is that those 12 throws are pretty similar to some of the 588 throws he has already made.

And let's be clear - it isn't the result of any of the throws(caught or yardage or TD or whatever...because preseason does not matter in terms of stats) I'm drawing attention to. It is the the mechanism and placement and choices involved in those plays and throws (or non-throws). After week 1 of preseason I didn't care that the screen throw was behind DJ or the screen to Juice was late & would have resulted in a penalty because it was late. THAT was a small sample, and it was fun to see those plays. After week 2 there was nothing to say, other that the elation of finding a backup in Bags. I've only been expressing disappointment since the week 3 game 5 days ago for all the reasons that I've carefully and reasonably laid out (that are being mischaracterized or exaggerated).

wab is right that game reminded me of some of the lesser games last year. And it makes me uncomfortable and less confident that a ton of change has happened, short of improving the players around JF1.

[dplank]

I’ll enjoy hearing you admit how wrong you were a week from a Sunday

[The Grizzly One]

Call it what you want, but you've been pretty incessantly negative about him for over a week now. Over 12 fucking throws man - 12 throws!!! You are WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY overthinking this. Smoke a doobie and relax until Week 1, and MAYBE we'll give you a seat back on the bus when Fields tears up the Peckers.

All good natured ribbing of course.

Not a bus it's a train!

[Moriarty]

I think the problem IE is trying to articulate is that those 12 throws are pretty similar to some of the 588 throws he has already made.

The sample size, preseason no less, makes it an utterly useless point. Supporter card is hereby revoked!

600+ is not a small sample size.


There's some time left, but it is starting to get short for him to start showing the things he needs to be able to do with consistency.
Time Left is now shorter than Time Elapsed.

[IE]

I’ll enjoy hearing you admit how wrong you were a week from a Sunday

Brother, I'd love that. I'm not even saying I'm "right" now - I'm saying I was disappointed in how something looked, and have less confidence in it now. I'll already admit that concern could be unfounded.

[IE]

The sample size, preseason no less, makes it an utterly useless point. Supporter card is hereby revoked!

600+ is not a small sample size.


There's some time left, but it is starting to get short for him to start showing the things he needs to be able to do with consistency.
Time Left is now shorter than Time Elapsed.

Ah... the old "hockey stick" projection. We can do it!

https://www.divestopedia.com/definition ... projection

[The Grizzly One]

The sample size, preseason no less, makes it an utterly useless point. Supporter card is hereby revoked!

600+ is not a small sample size.


There's some time left, but it is starting to get short for him to start showing the things he needs to be able to do with consistency.
Time Left is now shorter than Time Elapsed.

The 12 passes are the sample for what Getsy and Flus say is the improved Fields. The 588 are before he made said improvements.

Yeah-Yeah I know....But...but...but...They are liars and incompetent. Just like Nagy and all the Bears coaches have been for decades.

[wab]

I’ll never understand why it’s impossible to voice concerns about Fields while also simultaneously acknowledging his talent and the belief that he will put it together.

[The Grizzly One]

I’ll never understand why it’s impossible to voice concerns about Fields while also simultaneously acknowledging his talent and the belief that he will put it together.

Because there are those concerned, while others are stating the jury is out, he is inaccurate as has been proven ,and they will not give proper time to see if the Bears staff know what they are doing and telling us he is better.

12 preseason passes are not a true tell. Now is the time to trust the process and trust the coaches. If it turns out to be wrong, it's time to find something else to do with our time and give up on the current staff.

Do you think we are there yet?

[Moriarty]

600+ is not a small sample size.


There's some time left, but it is starting to get short for him to start showing the things he needs to be able to do with consistency.
Time Left is now shorter than Time Elapsed.

The 12 passes are the sample for what Getsy and Flus say is the improved Fields. The 588 are before he made said improvements.

Yeah-Yeah I know....But...but...but...They are liars and incompetent. Just like Nagy and all the Bears coaches have been for decades.

If you're going to go around automatically believing salesmen trying to pump up their product and haven't learned anything about believing it when you see it, after however many decades you've been watching football, I can't help you.

But I can help myself - I have really great bridge for sale, that I have to unload for a fraction of its value, because I really need cash. How would you like to buy it on the cheap?

[Moriarty]

I’ll never understand why it’s impossible to voice concerns about Fields while also simultaneously acknowledging his talent and the belief that he will put it together.

Because there are those concerned, while others are stating the jury is out, he is inaccurate as has been proven ,and they will not give proper time to see if the Bears staff know what they are doing and telling us he is better.

12 preseason passes are not a true tell. Now is the time to trust the process and trust the coaches. If it turns out to be wrong, it's time to find something else to do with our time and give up on the current staff.

Do you think we are there yet?

But the default (at least with player development) shouldn't be

Believe what they tell you, until you see otherwise

it should be

Believe what you've already seen, until you see otherwise


Coaches virtually always pitch confidence and rosy scenarios, until the moment they give up on something.
Have you ever heard one say "Well, Jesper's not really showing much progress that I can see, but we're heavily invested in him, and the GM likes him better than I do, and we don't really have any serious alternative anyway. So, he's our starter for now, and I guess we'll just hope for the best."?
When they always tell you the same thing, no matter what the reality is...that makes what they are saying valueless. You take nothing from it.
That's not a Nagy issue or History of the Bears issue or Referendum on Eberflus' Competence issue, it's an Every HC Everywhere issue.

[The Grizzly One]

The 12 passes are the sample for what Getsy and Flus say is the improved Fields. The 588 are before he made said improvements.

Yeah-Yeah I know....But...but...but...They are liars and incompetent. Just like Nagy and all the Bears coaches have been for decades.

If you're going to go around automatically believing salesmen trying to pump up their product and haven't learned anything about believing it when you see it, after however many decades you've been watching football, I can't help you.

But I can help myself - I have really great bridge for sale, that I have to unload for a fraction of its value, because I really need cash. How would you like to buy it on the cheap?

I'm not interested in your bridge Mr. Moriarity, sorry.

I am interested in the Bears being good, so let me check out your new and improved product Mr. Poles. I have to tell you the last McNagy version was quite bad you know. I have seen you busy remaking the product in the last year so I look forward to the unveiling season. Some folks are telling me you are no better, but I think after all the work you have done I should give you the chance to show me. So lets see...

...stay tuned folks.

[The Marshall Plan]

I think some of you guys are too in the weeds on this one.

Year 1: Rookie Year. Throw it out. Double plus so because it was the death throes of McNagy.

Year 2: New system new coach. No supporting cast on offense. No effective pass blocking. Running for his life constantly. No defense to keep the score close and to get favorable field position.

Year 3: Well here we are.

Take a step back and acknowledge that JF1 has had to deal with dogshit situation after dogshit situation here since he started. I think we can agree on that. Those factors have to have negatively impacted his performance.

[dplank]

600+ is not a small sample size.


There's some time left, but it is starting to get short for him to start showing the things he needs to be able to do with consistency.
Time Left is now shorter than Time Elapsed.

Ah... the old "hockey stick" projection. We can do it!

https://www.divestopedia.com/definition ... projection

You're not understanding my gripe here. IE was a full blown Fields guy, and has completely changed his tune not after 600 pass attempts, but after 12 preseason pass attempts. As recently as a month ago he was saying very different things.

You on the other hand Moriarty, have been pretty consistently negative about Fields. That's fine, and he hasn't done enough yet to change your tune on him. Makes sense. What's pure insanity is changing your tune after 12 preseason passing plays. There are no words for how bad that is to me. He went from cheerleader to Rich jr after 12 goddamn preseason snaps!

IE, this is a very bad look for you IMO. Come back to the optimistic side of town where you belong.

[IE]

Ah... the old "hockey stick" projection. We can do it!

https://www.divestopedia.com/definition ... projection

You're not understanding my gripe here. IE was a full blown Fields guy, and has completely changed his tune not after 600 pass attempts, but after 12 preseason pass attempts. As recently as a month ago he was saying very different things.

You on the other hand Moriarty, have been pretty consistently negative about Fields. That's fine, and he hasn't done enough yet to change your tune on him. Makes sense. What's pure insanity is changing your tune after 12 preseason passing plays. There are no words for how bad that is to me. He went from cheerleader to Rich jr after 12 goddamn preseason snaps!

I didn't change my tune - that is a big mischaracterization. Is it because it is easier to argue when you exaggerate (in which case I'll just stop), or should I keep trying to explain how disappointment in something I've seen is not the same thing as bailing on a guy I like (I'm definitely willing)?

[dplank]

I went from being a pretty consistent 10 over the entire offseason down to an 8 today. I hope I'm wrong.

You posted this after the preseason game last week, and then have proceeded for the last week to do nothing but shit all over Fields. You have absolutely changed your tune - like, literally changed it.

I'm ride or die with Fields. TMP and I are gonna throw a JF1 BBQ party when he wins MVP and none of you people are invited.

[Moriarty]

Ah... the old "hockey stick" projection. We can do it!

https://www.divestopedia.com/definition ... projection

You're not understanding my gripe here. IE was a full blown Fields guy, and has completely changed his tune not after 600 pass attempts, but after 12 preseason pass attempts. As recently as a month ago he was saying very different things.

You on the other hand Moriarty, have been pretty consistently negative about Fields. That's fine, and he hasn't done enough yet to change your tune on him. Makes sense. What's pure insanity is changing your tune after 12 preseason passing plays. There are no words for how bad that is to me. He went from cheerleader to Rich jr after 12 goddamn preseason snaps!

IE, this is a very bad look for you IMO. Come back to the optimistic side of town where you belong.

I would argue for "cautious" or "skeptical" over "negative".
I will remind here that this is the first (significant) QB selection in 30 yrs that I've endorsed, rather than detested.
He was a physical talent with nice general intangibles, but lacking in experience and specific skills & decision making.
And those skills & decision making are better but haven't shown to be nearly where they need to be yet.
Could happen, but very often doesn't.
But, anyway, my view of him has moved a little as the pages turn, but not too much in either direction. Fairly consistent, yes.


I'll leave IE to argue his own case. But I think Tyson has siphoned off some of the optimism.

[dplank]

You're not understanding my gripe here. IE was a full blown Fields guy, and has completely changed his tune not after 600 pass attempts, but after 12 preseason pass attempts. As recently as a month ago he was saying very different things.

You on the other hand Moriarty, have been pretty consistently negative about Fields. That's fine, and he hasn't done enough yet to change your tune on him. Makes sense. What's pure insanity is changing your tune after 12 preseason passing plays. There are no words for how bad that is to me. He went from cheerleader to Rich jr after 12 goddamn preseason snaps!

IE, this is a very bad look for you IMO. Come back to the optimistic side of town where you belong.

I would argue for "cautious" or "skeptical" over "negative".
I will remind here that this is the first (significant) QB selection in 30 yrs that I've endorsed, rather than detested.
He was a physical talent with nice general intangibles, but lacking in experience and specific skills & decision making.
And those skills & decision making are better but haven't shown to be nearly where they need to be yet.
Could happen, but very often doesn't.
But, anyway, my view of him has moved a little as the pages turn, but not too much in either direction. Fairly consistent, yes.


I'll leave IE to argue his own case. But I think Tyson has siphoned off some of the optimism.

This is the year we find out Moriarty. When the real games start and the dust settles, we will finally have a clear picture of him. I'm consistent on the other side, I still believe his circumstances haven't allowed us to see his greatness fulfilled as a passer (he already fulfilled it as a rusher), and I believe that he is going to be an MVP candidate this season.

[IE]

I went from being a pretty consistent 10 over the entire offseason down to an 8 today. I hope I'm wrong.

You posted this after the preseason game last week, and then have proceeded for the last week to do nothing but shit all over Fields. You have absolutely changed your tune - like, literally changed it.

I'm ride or die with Fields. TMP and I are gonna throw a JF1 BBQ party when he wins MVP and none of you people are invited.

Maybe you'll recall that while I was predicting 10 wins (and even before) I was also at the same time making it clear that even though I've been a hardcore optimist surrounding JF1's development I had a timeline in mind for what I thought he needed to do. AND I've been saying since spring that I thought not meeting that timeline could mean Poles electing to move on from him and draft a QB high next season. Remember that? I've been laying out the conditions for my optimism for like, years.

What changed: The amount of information we have available changed. The information available about the level of improvement that has occurred is greater now. Of COURSE 4 series of preseaon football doesn't cause me to come to a premature conclusion. But I fully reject the notion that was I saw & didn't see was somehow not real because it was a practice game, when I've been explicitly clear that IF change is really real, it is real in practice.

What has not changed: My tune on JF1's timeline.

[IE]

I'll leave IE to argue his own case. But I think Tyson has siphoned off some of the optimism.

I'd be lying if I said that the revelation that is Tyson Bagent hasn't influenced my opinions. I just love that story so much.

Bags might turn into a pumpkin, and end up making regular bad decisions that relegate him to having a ceiling as a fringe NFL backup. But what I saw him able to do does stand in contrast to the rope/runway I've given someone else. That is his contribution to my perspective. Like I've written a few times, "things that make you go hmmm".

If I'm not open to new information, then I am not wise. And if I laid out a timeline I thought was reasonable/correct for the better part of two years and then updated that to add on more time, THAT would be inconsistent, or changing. I'm not doing that.

[The Marshall Plan]

I went from being a pretty consistent 10 over the entire offseason down to an 8 today. I hope I'm wrong.

You posted this after the preseason game last week, and then have proceeded for the last week to do nothing but shit all over Fields. You have absolutely changed your tune - like, literally changed it.

I'm ride or die with Fields. TMP and I are gonna throw a JF1 BBQ party when he wins MVP and none of you people are invited.

I'll be there for that BBQ.

There's way too many things that JF1 does well, consistently, to make me think this is a negative situation or to worry.

People also seem to have completely forgotten about last year, the conditions in which JF1 operated, and yet JF1 ran like Gale Sayers and for a period of time we were putting up 30 with regularity and 20+ a bunch of times.

I just can't do it with the dozen preseason plays and saying things one way or another. Yes it was euphoric and silly to celebrate that game where he threw like 3 passes and had 2 TDs. It was meatball euphoria.

On the flip side, I cannot see how anybody looks at that Bills game last week and extrapolates out anxiety or a season's worth of worry. I would call that Meatball Anxiety and no I'm not trying to insult people on here that I like. I'm just saying.

Seriously people. I'm under the impression that 99% of us have been watching football for decades. Decades. All of you have to know by now that the preseason doesn't mean shit. It's a glorified chemistry set meant to try out things. Evaluate it for what it is.

[IE]

Seriously people. I'm under the impression that 99% of us have been watching football for decades. Decades. All of you have to know by now that the preseason doesn't mean shit. It's a glorified chemistry set meant to try out things. Evaluate it for what it is.

These absolute comments just don't work. For seasoned vets with demonstrated skills of course it is meaningless. For some players still working on their crafts, it is an opportunity to test their progress against live competition. For many many players it is their tryout just in hopes of making the team. But that shouldn't be just dismissed with a wave of the hand. Sometimes overlooked, late-drafted and undrafted players come into preseason and not only make the squad but turn heads with how much they look like they belong - and end up being long term pros or even stars.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/br ... ll-matter/

[dplank]

Seriously people. I'm under the impression that 99% of us have been watching football for decades. Decades. All of you have to know by now that the preseason doesn't mean shit. It's a glorified chemistry set meant to try out things. Evaluate it for what it is.

These absolute comments just don't work. For seasoned vets with demonstrated skills of course it is meaningless. For some players still working on their crafts, it is an opportunity to test their progress against live competition. For many many players it is their tryout just in hopes of making the team. But that shouldn't be just dismissed with a wave of the hand. Sometimes overlooked, late-drafted and undrafted players come into preseason and not only make the squad but turn heads with how much they look like they belong - and end up being long term pros or even stars.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/br ... ll-matter/

All quarterbacks make bad throws sometimes - every single one of them. Working on their craft or not. A mini-preseason sample size doesn't extrapolate into anything meaningful once you accept this basic truth that bad throws will happen and apply it to every QB, even Fields. It doesn't mean any more or less other than in your mind. You've seen JF1 make every throw there is to make, we know he has a good arm and that's just not really in question in my mind. I still want to see him grow as a decision maker and game manager, as we all do. I think he will, you appear to be sliding ever so gently towards true Chet turf of wanting the UDFA backup QB to take over. Like a young Luke Skywalker, you must resist the urge to go to the darkside.

[wab]

These absolute comments just don't work. For seasoned vets with demonstrated skills of course it is meaningless. For some players still working on their crafts, it is an opportunity to test their progress against live competition. For many many players it is their tryout just in hopes of making the team. But that shouldn't be just dismissed with a wave of the hand. Sometimes overlooked, late-drafted and undrafted players come into preseason and not only make the squad but turn heads with how much they look like they belong - and end up being long term pros or even stars.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/br ... ll-matter/

All quarterbacks make bad throws sometimes - every single one of them. Working on their craft or not. A mini-preseason sample size doesn't extrapolate into anything meaningful once you accept this basic truth that bad throws will happen and apply it to every QB, even Fields. It doesn't mean any more or less other than in your mind. You've seen JF1 make every throw there is to make, we know he has a good arm and that's just not really in question in my mind. I still want to see him grow as a decision maker and game manager, as we all do. I think he will, you appear to be sliding ever so gently towards true Chet turf of wanting the UDFA backup QB to take over. Like a young Luke Skywalker, you must resist the urge to go to the darkside.

You are agreeing with everyone who has voiced concern and don’t even realize it.

Not a single person has questioned his ability to make all the throws.

What everyone has been talking about him needing to improve… is his decision making, game management, and situational awareness.

[dplank]

Yes, I am agreeing with these thoughts and I do realize it. I have concerns too! I'm just not going to make some dramatic pivot based on a few preseason throws. I'll wait until roughly 1/4 of the season before I start pontificating about drafting a QB next year or starting Rudy at QB.

The point, that somehow keeps getting distorted, is simply this: whatever you believed at the start of camp re: Fields should be EXACTLY what you believe right now. Nothing changes until we play real games.

[IE]

Yes, I am agreeing with these thoughts and I do realize it. I have concerns too! I'm just not going to make some dramatic pivot based on a few preseason throws. I'll wait until roughly 1/4 of the season before I start pontificating about drafting a QB next year or starting Rudy at QB.

The point, that somehow keeps getting distorted, is simply this: whatever you believed at the start of camp re: Fields should be EXACTLY what you believe right now. Nothing changes until we play real games.

Is that an order? Lol

My eyes have, more often than not in my life, not lied to me. I sort of see this as someone saying, in effect, "are you going to believe me or your lying eyes?"

I object to anyone telling me that what I see isn't real. Including my assessment of the context.

Sorry

[RichH55]

I think some of you guys are too in the weeds on this one.

Year 1: Rookie Year. Throw it out. Double plus so because it was the death throes of McNagy.

Year 2: New system new coach. No supporting cast on offense. No effective pass blocking. Running for his life constantly. No defense to keep the score close and to get favorable field position.

Year 3: Well here we are.

Take a step back and acknowledge that JF1 has had to deal with dogshit situation after dogshit situation here since he started. I think we can agree on that. Those factors have to have negatively impacted his performance.

The issues hes had are the same issues he had at Ohio State.

Was the issue there talent? Pretty sure their WR were paid more than the ones we've had here through most of my fandom

[RichH55]

You're not understanding my gripe here. IE was a full blown Fields guy, and has completely changed his tune not after 600 pass attempts, but after 12 preseason pass attempts. As recently as a month ago he was saying very different things.

You on the other hand Moriarty, have been pretty consistently negative about Fields. That's fine, and he hasn't done enough yet to change your tune on him. Makes sense. What's pure insanity is changing your tune after 12 preseason passing plays. There are no words for how bad that is to me. He went from cheerleader to Rich jr after 12 goddamn preseason snaps!

I didn't change my tune - that is a big mischaracterization. Is it because it is easier to argue when you exaggerate (in which case I'll just stop), or should I keep trying to explain how disappointment in something I've seen is not the same thing as bailing on a guy I like (I'm definitely willing)?

Its gonna be rough IE.

Anything that isn't "He's Perfect" is oddly like saying you are a Traitor

Though - everyone seemingly agrees he will get 2023 purely

[RichH55]

Yes, I am agreeing with these thoughts and I do realize it. I have concerns too! I'm just not going to make some dramatic pivot based on a few preseason throws. I'll wait until roughly 1/4 of the season before I start pontificating about drafting a QB next year or starting Rudy at QB.

The point, that somehow keeps getting distorted, is simply this: whatever you believed at the start of camp re: Fields should be EXACTLY what you believe right now. Nothing changes until we play real games.

Is that an order? Lol

My eyes have, more often than not in my life, not lied to me. I sort of see this as someone saying, in effect, "are you going to believe me or your lying eyes?"

I object to anyone telling me that what I see isn't real. Including my assessment of the context.

Sorry

The Eye Test has been an apologist staple.

When stats of all variety, and wins/losses don't support your position - it's helpful to have something more nebulous to fall back upon