Free Talk // Open bar, we're not turning the lights off

[Arkansasbear]

Interesting - it's being reported he will have neck surgery and that will cause him to miss part of training camp. Says the Saints knew about the pending surgery.

[alexwilkins]

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Jerry Jeudy
Age: 24-331d
57 Games
211 Catches
3053 Yards
11 TD
Contract: 3 years for $58m with $41m guaranteed ($19.33m apy)

Darnell Mooney
Age: 26-143d
60 Games
213 Catches
2593 Yards
11 TD
Contract: 3 years for $39m with $26m guaranteed ($13m apy)

For those who think the Falcons overpaid for Mooney, these are just the sort of sums receivers are earning these days.

[malk]

Jerry Jeudy
Age: 24-331d
57 Games
211 Catches
3053 Yards
11 TD
Contract: 3 years for $58m with $41m guaranteed ($19.33m apy)

Darnell Mooney
Age: 26-143d
60 Games
213 Catches
2593 Yards
11 TD
Contract: 3 years for $39m with $26m guaranteed ($13m apy)

For those who think the Falcons overpaid for Mooney, these are just the sort of sums receivers are earning these days.

Firstly, gutted this guy wasn't around to play against Peanut.

Anyway, I think both teams overpaid. It's madness imo. Just pick up a guy off the scrapheap and feed them opportunities and you'll get similar results, or close enough. If you need a #1 then it's different, or if you think you're paying for potential #1 upside, sure. But Mooney doesn't look to have it and, if you just look on paper, he's Anthony Miller with more targets.

It genuinely baffles me, there's something about the NFL that prevents GMs from looking for upside to reward, or signing them to a one year deal where they barely get chance to learn a system, let alone show a coach they deserve a decent workload. So many players that end up doing pretty well when they're in as emergency cover for injury, but seemingly little ability to identify those traits in advance of necessity.

[Rusty Trombagent]

Jerry Jeudy
Age: 24-331d
57 Games
211 Catches
3053 Yards
11 TD
Contract: 3 years for $58m with $41m guaranteed ($19.33m apy)

Darnell Mooney
Age: 26-143d
60 Games
213 Catches
2593 Yards
11 TD
Contract: 3 years for $39m with $26m guaranteed ($13m apy)

For those who think the Falcons overpaid for Mooney, these are just the sort of sums receivers are earning these days.

Firstly, gutted this guy wasn't around to play against Peanut.

Anyway, I think both teams overpaid. It's madness imo. Just pick up a guy off the scrapheap and feed them opportunities and you'll get similar results, or close enough. If you need a #1 then it's different, or if you think you're paying for potential #1 upside, sure. But Mooney doesn't look to have it and, if you just look on paper, he's Anthony Miller with more targets.

It genuinely baffles me, there's something about the NFL that prevents GMs from looking for upside to reward, or signing them to a one year deal where they barely get chance to learn a system, let alone show a coach they deserve a decent workload. So many players that end up doing pretty well when they're in as emergency cover for injury, but seemingly little ability to identify those traits in advance of necessity.

ehhh, respectfully i'm going to disagree on the mooney critique. He's not a #1, but the when he has never had a decent passer throwing to him, writing him off as Anthony Miller feels pretty brutal.

There's been rumblings for a bit that the Falcons arent happy with Drake London's progress, and I'm really excited to see a real passer throwing to him.

[dplank]

London does appear to be a bust in the making. As for Mooney, he got roughly what he should have as a low end WR2 which is what he is. The fact that low end WR2s cost 13M is pretty remarkable.

[Grizzled]

D.J. Moore

Will be 27 on April 14
Games: 97
Receptions: 460
Yards: 6565
TDs: 29
$16M in 2024
$15M in 2025
UFA in 2026 when 29; 2 to 3 year deal for $25M+ ?

[RichH55]

London does appear to be a bust in the making. As for Mooney, he got roughly what he should have as a low end WR2 which is what he is. The fact that low end WR2s cost 13M is pretty remarkable.

He's got the 23rd highest AAV for WR in the league - tied with D. Hopkins. Granted lots of guys on their Rookie deals - so it's not the same thing as saying "he's technically paid like a #1 or any such nonsense"

BUT That's not low end WR2 money either.

[malk]

Firstly, gutted this guy wasn't around to play against Peanut.

Anyway, I think both teams overpaid. It's madness imo. Just pick up a guy off the scrapheap and feed them opportunities and you'll get similar results, or close enough. If you need a #1 then it's different, or if you think you're paying for potential #1 upside, sure. But Mooney doesn't look to have it and, if you just look on paper, he's Anthony Miller with more targets.

It genuinely baffles me, there's something about the NFL that prevents GMs from looking for upside to reward, or signing them to a one year deal where they barely get chance to learn a system, let alone show a coach they deserve a decent workload. So many players that end up doing pretty well when they're in as emergency cover for injury, but seemingly little ability to identify those traits in advance of necessity.

ehhh, respectfully i'm going to disagree on the mooney critique. He's not a #1, but the when he has never had a decent passer throwing to him, writing him off as Anthony Miller feels pretty brutal.

There's been rumblings for a bit that the Falcons arent happy with Drake London's progress, and I'm really excited to see a real passer throwing to him.

You could well be right, and if they're paying with the expectation that he'll be a solid #2 (fnarr) then it might be better. But what I can't get over is that teams are willing to pay on the hope of improvement for players like him but, seemingly, very rarely for players that look decent with less opportunity. It's like, young player with consistent mediocre performance = sizable contract whereas player with good production on limited snaps = cheap short term deal at best.

But even with the admittedly pretty brutal comparison to Miller, Miller had Trubisky throwing to him the comparison is:

Code: Select all

Rk	Player		Age	From	To	G	GS	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Ctch%	Y/Tgt	Succ%	1D	AV	FantPt
1	Anthony Miller	24-27	2018	2021	50	18	227	140	1589	11.4	12	61.7	7.0	47.6	79	13	230.9
2	Darnell Mooney	23-26	2020	2023	60	49	360	213	2593	12.2	11	59.2	7.2	46.1	122	25	339.2

It feels like Miller was drafted a couple of years too early else he would have some GM believing "I can fix him".

I want a GM who can find someone who has looked good over 100 or so targets, maybe behind established players or something, and fits the scheme and is worth giving an actual developmental opportunity to, as in not expecting immediate results. GMs should be looking at this kind of player like they do draft picks, but with a some actual NFL tape on offer and consequently a slightly higher up front cost.

[RichH55]

It should also be noted that this is an AWESOME draft class for WR - which shouldn't have helped WR in FA

[Rusty Trombagent]

ehhh, respectfully i'm going to disagree on the mooney critique. He's not a #1, but the when he has never had a decent passer throwing to him, writing him off as Anthony Miller feels pretty brutal.

There's been rumblings for a bit that the Falcons arent happy with Drake London's progress, and I'm really excited to see a real passer throwing to him.

You could well be right, and if they're paying with the expectation that he'll be a solid #2 (fnarr) then it might be better. But what I can't get over is that teams are willing to pay on the hope of improvement for players like him but, seemingly, very rarely for players that look decent with less opportunity. It's like, young player with consistent mediocre performance = sizable contract whereas player with good production on limited snaps = cheap short term deal at best.

But even with the admittedly pretty brutal comparison to Miller, Miller had Trubisky throwing to him the comparison is:

Code: Select all

Rk	Player		Age	From	To	G	GS	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Ctch%	Y/Tgt	Succ%	1D	AV	FantPt
1	Anthony Miller	24-27	2018	2021	50	18	227	140	1589	11.4	12	61.7	7.0	47.6	79	13	230.9
2	Darnell Mooney	23-26	2020	2023	60	49	360	213	2593	12.2	11	59.2	7.2	46.1	122	25	339.2

It feels like Miller was drafted a couple of years too early else he would have some GM believing "I can fix him".

I want a GM who can find someone who has looked good over 100 or so targets, maybe behind established players or something, and fits the scheme and is worth giving an actual developmental opportunity to, as in not expecting immediate results. GMs should be looking at this kind of player like they do draft picks, but with a some actual NFL tape on offer and consequently a slightly higher up front cost.

IIRC, Miller had shoulder(???) issues? And the Texans and Steelers both gave him an opportunity but that combined with attitude problems tanked him. He's kind of a unique situation.

I also think that historically, WR2's just inhabit a weird space financially. Fans think they should make peanuts because they arent WR1's, and they think they should be payed like WR1's because in their heads they're the best WR in the league.

[dplank]

It's hard to say what Mooney will do with Cousins in ATL, but I suspect he will see an uptick in targets. Mooney's story with Chicago is pretty simple IMHO:

1. He's not a #1 WR, he just isn't. Poles recognized this and got us a real #1 WR in DJ Moore.
2. He "appeared" to decline, but it was largely a function of targets. Those targets dropped dramatically when we changed our offense (Nagy out, Getsy in).
3. The new offense went from throwing a TON (140 targets as our WR1 with Fields as QB) to leading the league in rush attempts (61 targets as our WR1 with Fields at QB). The QB was a constant variable, the offense is what changed.
4. Then last year DJ comes in (see point 1), and he gets the majority of the targets. The fact that Mooney still got as many targets as a WR2 last year as he did as our WR1 the year prior is pretty crazy to me. DJ had a career year last year and was targeted 136 times to Mooney's 61.
5. There was a minor uptick in targets when Bagent played, and Bagent is more of a quick distributor like Cousins is. Plus Drake London sux, so I could see his targets go up a lot in ATL where I suspect Cousins will throw a ton.

Basically, it's all about targets / opportunities and the primary driver of that is the play caller, with the next driver of that being the QB. I think in both instances Mooney will see more action (from both the play caller throwing a ton more than Getsy, to Cousins being a better fit for his play style)

[Heinz D.]

Hey..."punch and pie"?

We deserve "beer and bratwurst" AT LEAST, don't we?

[HisRoyalSweetness]

It's hard to say what Mooney will do with Cousins in ATL, but I suspect he will see an uptick in targets. Mooney's story with Chicago is pretty simple IMHO:

1. He's not a #1 WR, he just isn't. Poles recognized this and got us a real #1 WR in DJ Moore.
2. He "appeared" to decline, but it was largely a function of targets. Those targets dropped dramatically when we changed our offense (Nagy out, Getsy in).
3. The new offense went from throwing a TON (140 targets as our WR1 with Fields as QB) to leading the league in rush attempts (61 targets as our WR1 with Fields at QB). The QB was a constant variable, the offense is what changed.
4. Then last year DJ comes in (see point 1), and he gets the majority of the targets. The fact that Mooney still got as many targets as a WR2 last year as he did as our WR1 the year prior is pretty crazy to me. DJ had a career year last year and was targeted 136 times to Mooney's 61.
5. There was a minor uptick in targets when Bagent played, and Bagent is more of a quick distributor like Cousins is. Plus Drake London sux, so I could see his targets go up a lot in ATL where I suspect Cousins will throw a ton.

Basically, it's all about targets / opportunities and the primary driver of that is the play caller, with the next driver of that being the QB. I think in both instances Mooney will see more action (from both the play caller throwing a ton more than Getsy, to Cousins being a better fit for his play style)

Not to be argumentative but you again missed health out of Mooney's story.

In 2021 when he had 140 targets he played all 17 games and was on the field for 986 snaps.

The following year he played 12 games (11 really because he was injured very early in his 12th game) and was on the field for just 630 snaps, a 36% decrease. That's a big factor in why his targets dropped all the way down to 61 despite being WR1.

Last season as WR2 he played 15 games and 766 snaps.

Without injury the drop off from 2021 to 2022 would have been high but somewhat less severe, around 95 rather than 61, markedly higher than his targets as WR2 last year so nothing too crazy there.

[Arkansasbear]

Hey..."punch and pie"?

We deserve "beer and bratwurst" AT LEAST, don't we?

I was thinking "punch" was in reference to "fisticuffs" being thrown.

[IotaNet]

… I was thinking "punch" was in reference to "fisticuffs" being thrown.

That would be one of the OTHER offseason threads.

[UOK]

RE: Punch and pie

[wab]

RE: Punch and pie

I knew what it was immediately because I say it alllll the time to my family.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Just a reminder why we are in this unbelievable position we find ourselves.

The hilarious part of course was that the Texans didn't even wait until Black Monday to fire Lovie. They did it like five minutes after the game ended. LOL! I think he knew he was dead man walking, and gave the one last "fuck you". Just unbelievable.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

OK...be honest...who had KY losing to Oakland in their brackets?

[Magilla_Gorilla]

[Bearfacts]

This is where having 3 of your OL starters still on their rookie deals helps and pretty soon your starting QB as well.

[The Marshall Plan]

This is where having 3 of your OL starters still on their rookie deals helps and pretty soon your starting QB as well.

This is a valid reason to draft OL at 9. It isn’t so much about Alt. It’s about the $20M.

[Otis Day]

Not I. Glad they got beat though. I can't stand them. Somehow my son is a big Kentucky. Not sure how that happened. Wonder where I went wrong.

[Hema2.0]

Just a reminder why we are in this unbelievable position we find ourselves.

The hilarious part of course was that the Texans didn't even wait until Black Monday to fire Lovie. They did it like five minutes after the game ended. LOL! I think he knew he was dead man walking, and gave the one last "fuck you". Just unbelievable.

And to be fair, it worked out very well for the Texans too. He should get statues at both stadiums

[alexwilkins]

This is where having 3 of your OL starters still on their rookie deals helps and pretty soon your starting QB as well.

This is a valid reason to draft OL at 9. It isn’t so much about Alt. It’s about the $20M.

Hard disagree. We SHOULD be spending money on the OLine. Especially with a rookie QB. It should be an edge. We literally couldn’t buy a passrusher this offseason.

Why replace Braxton when we don’t HAVE to pay him for two more years anyway? Teven is in a contract year, but he’s still proving he can stay healthy. We got iOL competition already.

[Bearfacts]

This is where having 3 of your OL starters still on their rookie deals helps and pretty soon your starting QB as well.

This is a valid reason to draft OL at 9. It isn’t so much about Alt. It’s about the $20M.

I wouldn't quarrel with that or even trading down when the 1st round is pretty well packed with OL guys a few of whom seem much like Wright and spec more at RT or OG. I've given my thoughts on this in the thread I created on that #9 pick and a trade down. Great teams invest heavily in their OL and create depth. Even after the additions are we confident about where we're at both now and in 2025 considering Jenkins is up for an extension that may create a stumbling block given his injury history and Davis is not a lock beyond 2024 either. Drafting for the OL again would be Poles thinking ahead.

[Plak1989]

Plus Drake London sux,

Holy yikes. tell me you don't know football without telling me you don't know football.

[alexwilkins]

[Shadow]

Hey..."punch and pie"?

We deserve "beer and bratwurst" AT LEAST, don't we?

I was thinking "punch" was in reference to "fisticuffs" being thrown.

And Pie to the face!