The 2024 Draft

[Hoog]

After FA and the commitment to CW at 1, pick 9 is a bit more flexible in my mind.

If Turner is there, you have to take him. I think he is a double digit sack guy in the nfl, especially next to Sweat. If he's gone and Odunze is there, you take him. He fits perfectly into a need for CW. If those two are gone, then Joe Alt is the guy you get for protecting CW the next 8 years.

If all three are gone then you trade down. My top picks for the trade down are Adonai Mitchell, Brian Thomas Jr., Jered Verse, Chop Robinson, and Fashanu (OT- Penn State)

[Magilla_Gorilla]

Listening to the PFF podcast the other day and they were talking about Harrison and not working out at the pro-day or at the combine. They were wondering aloud how much longer the 40 will even be a 'thing'. Teams have field speed for these players either from school's GPS or from a service like PFF that can calculate speed from tape.

With regards to Harrison they said that the average of his top 5 speeds this season was 21.6 mph. The LSU WR Brian Thomas was comparable at 21.7mph - Thomas ran a 4.34 at the combine.

[wab]

Listening to the PFF podcast the other day and they were talking about Harrison and not working out at the pro-day or at the combine. They were wondering aloud how much longer the 40 will even be a 'thing'. Teams have field speed for these players either from school's GPS or from a service like PFF that can calculate speed from tape.

With regards to Harrison they said that the average of his top 5 speeds this season was 21.6 mph. The LSU WR Brian Thomas was comparable at 21.7mph - Thomas ran a 4.34 at the combine.

I honestly wonder how much longer the Combine will even be a thing - at least in it's current form.

[thunderspirit]

There are some Day 3 guys who have returned punts too. The best-known is probably Texas A&M's Ainias Smith, but Anthony Gould (Oregon St), Tayvion Robinson (Kentucky), Xay Weaver (Colorado), and Jalen Calhoun (Duke) all have plenty of experience returning punts and some decent production at receiver too.

I feel like Ainias Smith has been in college forever.

Heh. He turns 23 in May. Smith was the least productive receiver of the five, though the most prolific punt returner.

If Allen gets extended, I have to think WR is off the table at #9. You just don't draft a guy in the top 10 with plans to have him be your third receiver, especially with an OC who appears to prefer using 12 personnel formations.

That leaves Edge and OT.

[Arkansasbear]

Listening to the PFF podcast the other day and they were talking about Harrison and not working out at the pro-day or at the combine. They were wondering aloud how much longer the 40 will even be a 'thing'. Teams have field speed for these players either from school's GPS or from a service like PFF that can calculate speed from tape.

With regards to Harrison they said that the average of his top 5 speeds this season was 21.6 mph. The LSU WR Brian Thomas was comparable at 21.7mph - Thomas ran a 4.34 at the combine.

I honestly wonder how much longer the Combine will even be a thing - at least in it's current form.

I think it's there for a while. But I do think you will see more of the "top prospects" elect not to attend or be very limited like MHJ and CW this year. Teams are going to still want to be able to do mass evaluations that they can have about their entire staff on site. When it comes to pro days, they have to break the team up. Then the issue becomes which pro day does the OC and QB coach go to when two schools have theirs the same day and both schools have a QB they wan to check out.

[RichH55]

I really feel like trade down from #9 is coming - barring something crazy (Basically if the LSU WR or MJH are still on the board)

With 4 QBs going Top Ten as my assumption (*)

(*) Could 4 QBs going Top Ten also maybe force an error by another team picking Top 15? Like Bo Nix/Pennix goes Top 15 just due to supply/demand and reaching?

I see 3 WR, 3-4 OT (Im not counting the Penn State kid), 1 TE, and 1 Corner (maybe its 2? But I really like the kid from Toledo), and 2 DL (does NOT count Dallas Turner as I think he's a 3-4 guy - but we CAN IMHO take him into account for the trade down). That I think would all be in the #9 mix

So I think that lets you move down to #15 (and possibly still #17) and still get 1 of the guys that are in the mix for Pick #9.

[dplank]

I really feel like trade down from #9 is coming - barring something crazy (Basically if the LSU WR or MJH are still on the board)

With 4 QBs going Top Ten as my assumption (*)

(*) Could 4 QBs going Top Ten also maybe force an error by another team picking Top 15? Like Bo Nix/Pennix goes Top 15 just due to supply/demand and reaching?

I see 3 WR, 3-4 OT (Im not counting the Penn State kid), 1 TE, and 1 Corner (maybe its 2? But I really like the kid from Toledo), and 2 DL (does NOT count Dallas Turner as I think he's a 3-4 guy - but we CAN IMHO take him into account for the trade down). That I think would all be in the #9 mix

So I think that lets you move down to #15 (and possibly still #17) and still get 1 of the guys that are in the mix for Pick #9.

I need to look at the latest roster view again now that we've made so many FA moves, I'm not sure how many spots we have left on the team for a rookie to even make the squad. Poles has really done a nice job. QB at 1, then what's left that a real need? DE/DT seems about it. Other spots like getting a S, C, WR in the development pipeline are always nice, but maybe Poles trades down later in the draft instead and accumulates late round assets for these developmental players.

The way this roster looks, I don't think we're going to be picking in the Top 10 again anytime soon. So getting an impact player at a premium position like T, DT, DE seems like a smart play.

[The Cooler King]

I don't either. I value tape over all by a wide margin. My only inclination here is if there's something that reflects on their character, which is one of the hardest things for teams to project on their draftees and one of the biggest unsung elements of a players eventual success or failure in the league.

FYI - folks keep conflating this, but a guy can be a massive dick and a bad person generally, but still be a good team player on the football field and in the locker room. I do not need to like the person, although it helps, in order to value them as a player. My concern is strictly about the football stuff, and I don't like guys who come in and don't think they need to meld into the team environment and put themselves above it all. That leads to team dysfunction.

His dad did shot a guy on the way to the Hall of Fame

*allegedly

[RichH55]

His dad did shot a guy on the way to the Hall of Fame

*allegedly

Nah, I'm pretty sure he made the Hall of Fame:)

[crueltyabc]

I agree with @dplank here that opportunities for late-round picks are pretty slim. I have my list of roster “locks” below and this doesn't include the guys who are very good special teams players.

Offense (19)
WR (4) DJ, Keenan, TS, VJJ
OL (7) Brax, Tev, Nate Davis, Wright, Ryan Bates, Coleman Shelton, JT Carter
TE (2) Kmet, Everett
QB (3) Caleb, Bagent, Rypien
RB (3) Swift, Roshon, Juice

Defense (15)
DL (5) Sweat, Walker, Billings, Dexter, Pickens
LB (4) Edwards, Edmund, Sewell, Sanborn
CB (4) JJ, Spiderman, Tyrique, Smitty
S (2) Brisker, Byard

Specialists (3)
Gill, Santos, Scales

If you added core ST guys it's VERY tough for a DB to make the team and pretty tough for LBs. The best opportunities for Rd 3+ guys are at WR, DT, and OT in my opinion. You could argue for an EDGE but late-round EDGE players are so rarely successful I generally wouldn't bother.

Thinking about the 2024 draft I see a lack of depth in the DT group, so that's not really an option for day 3. That leaves WR and OT. I'm happy with Brax so I would do this:

Rd 1 - WR, DT, or EDGE
Rd 2 and 3 - OT, WR, maybe DT if someone sorta falls
Rd 4+ - OT, WR, PR specialist

I'm happy to get two WRs because I want to replace Pettis. Overall, I don't care that much about acquiring more picks. If they draft Caleb and 3 other guys that can make the roster by bumping a special teamer or placeholder vet, that's a good 2024 draft to me.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

I feel like Ainias Smith has been in college forever.

Heh. He turns 23 in May. Smith was the least productive receiver of the five, though the most prolific punt returner.

If Allen gets extended, I have to think WR is off the table at #9. You just don't draft a guy in the top 10 with plans to have him be your third receiver, especially with an OC who appears to prefer using 12 personnel formations.

That leaves Edge and OT.

It wasn't top 10, it was top 20, but Seattle did this last year with the Jackson Smith-Njigba pick. For the OC we just hired.

[Arkansasbear]

I agree with @dplank here that opportunities for late-round picks are pretty slim. I have my list of roster “locks” below and this doesn't include the guys who are very good special teams players.

Offense (19)
WR (4) DJ, Keenan, TS, VJJ
OL (7) Brax, Tev, Nate Davis, Wright, Ryan Bates, Coleman Shelton, JT Carter
TE (2) Kmet, Everett
QB (3) Caleb, Bagent, Rypien
RB (3) Swift, Roshon, Juice

Defense (15)
DL (5) Sweat, Walker, Billings, Dexter, Pickens
LB (4) Edwards, Edmund, Sewell, Sanborn
CB (4) JJ, Spiderman, Tyrique, Smitty
S (2) Brisker, Byard

Specialists (3)
Gill, Santos, Scales

If you added core ST guys it's VERY tough for a DB to make the team and pretty tough for LBs. The best opportunities for Rd 3+ guys are at WR, DT, and OT in my opinion. You could argue for an EDGE but late-round EDGE players are so rarely successful I generally wouldn't bother.

Thinking about the 2024 draft I see a lack of depth in the DT group, so that's not really an option for day 3. That leaves WR and OT. I'm happy with Brax so I would do this:

Rd 1 - WR, DT, or EDGE
Rd 2 and 3 - OT, WR, maybe DT if someone sorta falls
Rd 4+ - OT, WR, PR specialist

I'm happy to get two WRs because I want to replace Pettis. Overall, I don't care that much about acquiring more picks. If they draft Caleb and 3 other guys that can make the roster by bumping a special teamer or placeholder vet, that's a good 2024 draft to me.

Just a few points.

You mentioned Pettis and I assume in slated as the PR, so any late round WR would likely need to be able to handle that. I agree with you that I'd like to have a PR that can help out more. Hopefully they target a guy with a good resume as a PR in college. It's a pretty safe bet that if he is a better return man, he will be able to chip in at least as much as Pettis as a WR (although I do think Pettis is good as a blocker in the run game, so whoever they get needs to have that mentality as well).

Rypien is likely bound for the PS so that give you another spot (or keeps it where you have it when you add in Pettis).

There are three specialist but they've brought in two guys to compete with Scales so he might be gone.

[HurricaneBear]

I feel like Ainias Smith has been in college forever.

Heh. He turns 23 in May. Smith was the least productive receiver of the five, though the most prolific punt returner.

If Allen gets extended, I have to think WR is off the table at #9. You just don't draft a guy in the top 10 with plans to have him be your third receiver, especially with an OC who appears to prefer using 12 personnel formations.

That leaves Edge and OT.

You should draft a guy at 9 who you have long term plans for. If that's as your future #1 WR and he spends a year as #3, thats fine. What he's going to do as a rookie shouldn't hold you back from drafting a guy if you think hes an elite talent. Get talent on the team then figure out how to use it.

We have established players in Jones/Wright in place at OT, and the same at DE with Walker/Sweat. Not that much different than Moore/Allen, except WR is the only spot where the established player is in his 30s. Father time defeats everyone, WR is just as viable as OT/DE

[crueltyabc]

The fact that we're happy with our starters is such a nice problem to have. It's been a REALLY long time since I liked the roster this much

[Bearfacts]

After looking at a few mock predictions with trade downs I'm beginning to come off the idea that a WR is the best way to go this year and instead pick up a second and more early third day picks. Despite the caliber of the top WR it's still a very deep draft for them all the way into the 3rd round and there are also quality FA left who could be signed after the draft when signing no longer tally for comp picks. This assumes Poles intends to extend Keenan Allen for at least another two years beyond 2024.

If there's one hole to fill more obvious than others it a RDE edge rusher to pair with Sweat and rotate with Walker. There isn't a can't miss top five or top ten guy in this draft but there are four graded as 1st round picks ranging from around pick #9 to the #20s. It should be easy enough to trade down maybe even twice and pickup a 2nd along with another 3rd and maybe another 4th. The other possibility I see is based on just how certain Poles feels about his OL both at OT and OG.

A few of the top OT are somewhat like Wright in that they spec more as RT or even as OG. If Jenkins keeps missing time how likely is it Poles will offer him a costly extension and at RG if Davis doesn't bounce back big time this year he'll be gone in 2025. Poles won't get the top LT trading back but there should still be at least two or three more rated as 1st round picks. I suppose another option could be a 3 tech DT but having spend two day two picks on them last year that seems less likely.

With more picks he should be able to draft an OC and add some depth at DT and DE. I sometimes wonder just how much difference there is between guys who are rated as 1st round picks yet not locks to be great starters vs some of the second tier talent who may need more time and coaching to develop who do become great starters. We have starters at most spots now but lack some depth and competition on both OL and DL. Maybe that what Poles should be looking to create in this draft.

[Heinz D.]

https://www.bearstalk.com/2024/03/11/ry ... draft-2024

[Magilla_Gorilla]

[o-pus #40 in B major]

Considering what has been said about Waldron's 2 and 3 tight end sets, maybe they need three big, productive tight ends.

[Hema2.0]

This pick is so interesting in the sense that its quite possible that offensive players take up 9 of the first 10 picks in this draft. Does that afford Poles the confidence to trade back some to get a DE in the teens somewhere and pick up a 2nd round pick that can be used on WR or safety?

[Z Bear]

Poles got asked about the #9 pick specifically at the NFL owners meetings today (CHGO just released a good pod covering it). Poles said they are about to do an excercise when the positions groups for WR, DE, and OT will all get their chance to to give merits for taking one of those positions versus are group representing trading down. Also mentioned he likes the number of players he has graded worthy of a top 10 pick for staying put though.

[Heinz D.]

Poles got asked about the #9 pick specifically at the NFL owners meetings today (CHGO just released a good pod covering it). Poles said they are about to do an excercise when the positions groups for WR, DE, and OT will all get their chance to to give merits for taking one of those positions versus are group representing trading down. Also mentioned he likes the number of players he has graded worthy of a top 10 pick for staying put though.

Yeah, pretty positive he isn't trading down from #9.

[Moriarty]

Poles got asked about the #9 pick specifically at the NFL owners meetings today (CHGO just released a good pod covering it). Poles said they are about to do an excercise when the positions groups for WR, DE, and OT will all get their chance to to give merits for taking one of those positions versus are group representing trading down. Also mentioned he likes the number of players he has graded worthy of a top 10 pick for staying put though.

Yeah, pretty positive he isn't trading down from #9.

I'm not.


However, I won't be surprised if it's only slightly longer than the trade down for Wright.

[thunderspirit]

Yeah, pretty positive he isn't trading down from #9.

I'm not.


However, I won't be surprised if it's only slightly longer than the trade down for Wright.

Same.

It's entirely possible Poles stays at #9, of course. And I'm not a betting guy. But I anticipate a move there.

[Bearfacts]

Adams Jahns and Kevin Fishbain each posted a four round predictive mock today. I liked all of the players selected but one.

Round One #1; Both concur on Caleb Williams

Round One #9; One vote for Verse and one vote for Turner

Round Three #75; One vote for Malachi Corely and on vote for Xavier Legette

Round Four #122; One vote for Braden Fiske and one vote for Tanner Bortoloni

[RichH55]

I read that too - the Fiske thing - very very much here for - Seems like a REACH that hes there

[Bearfacts]

Adams Jahns and Kevin Fishbain each posted a four round predictive mock today. I liked all of the players selected but one.

Round One #1; Both concur on Caleb Williams

Round One #9; One vote for Verse and one vote for Turner

Round Three #75; One vote for Malachi Corely and on vote for Xavier Legette

Round Four #122; One vote for Braden Fiske and one vote for Tanner Bortoloni

Quoting myself here. I would take Legette over Corley based on the need to an "X" type WR which Corley is not. He's a slot guy which is also where Keenan Allen has been productive and DJ Moore can also play. Legette is also a competent KR and faster. I'd also look to add a DT in round four ahead of an OC and Fiske as an interesting prospect. But I also like Badger OL so He could flip a coin here.

[BearsFanInMN]

Much higher on Legette than Corley. I don't think Fiske drops that far though as I don't see him lasting until day 3.

[wab]

I don't like Legette at all. For starters he only had like 400 total yards in college before going off as a senior. He has great vertical speed, but he seems super tight otherwise. He reminds me of Treylon Burks/Laviska Shenault. Both are big and fast, but have struggled quite a bit against NFL corners.

[malk]

I agree with @dplank here that opportunities for late-round picks are pretty slim. I have my list of roster “locks” below and this doesn't include the guys who are very good special teams players.

Offense (19)
WR (4) DJ, Keenan, TS, VJJ
OL (7) Brax, Tev, Nate Davis, Wright, Ryan Bates, Coleman Shelton, JT Carter
TE (2) Kmet, Everett
QB (3) Caleb, Bagent, Rypien
RB (3) Swift, Roshon, Juice

Defense (15)
DL (5) Sweat, Walker, Billings, Dexter, Pickens
LB (4) Edwards, Edmund, Sewell, Sanborn
CB (4) JJ, Spiderman, Tyrique, Smitty
S (2) Brisker, Byard

Specialists (3)
Gill, Santos, Scales

If you added core ST guys it's VERY tough for a DB to make the team and pretty tough for LBs. The best opportunities for Rd 3+ guys are at WR, DT, and OT in my opinion. You could argue for an EDGE but late-round EDGE players are so rarely successful I generally wouldn't bother.

Thinking about the 2024 draft I see a lack of depth in the DT group, so that's not really an option for day 3. That leaves WR and OT. I'm happy with Brax so I would do this:

Rd 1 - WR, DT, or EDGE
Rd 2 and 3 - OT, WR, maybe DT if someone sorta falls
Rd 4+ - OT, WR, PR specialist

I'm happy to get two WRs because I want to replace Pettis. Overall, I don't care that much about acquiring more picks. If they draft Caleb and 3 other guys that can make the roster by bumping a special teamer or placeholder vet, that's a good 2024 draft to me.

The roster is looking really nicely rounded out for starters now, with some high end talent thrown in as well. If I think about spots that either have a solid or better starter I don't think we've got a single hole outside of 3T now and even there you probably want to give Dexter enough snaps to really find out what you have. Obviously assuming we draft a QB with the expectation he starts, Caleb or otherwise.

Looking really critically:

WR is still lacking depth and doesn't have a nailed on WR3. Two great starters tho!
The Offensive line has some question marks for injury with Jenkins, plus Davis had an off year. But every spot has put in multiple recent games of at least decent line play and there's flexibility within the best 6 players to cover a bit of injury.
TE looks great.
QB doesn't have loads of experience but has a backup that has won games and we're obviously looking for a new star.
RB looks at least very solid.
EDGE is a bit light behind Sweat but Walker had a decent year. Probably our biggest need both for a starter and more rotation play.
IOL. Actually this might be our biggest need but Billings was pretty solid and I wouldn't want to see Dexter relegated to a backup that doesn't see many snaps.
LB looks great.
CB looks very good if Stevenson can kick on. We've got starters and depth.
S looks very solid if unspectacular but I'm fine with that at safety.

So DE/3T are the only sort of holes. I think if one of those is right up on your board at #9 you stick, otherwise, trade down for more lottery tickets.

[Bearfacts]

I can never judge where a dividing line is between fringe day three and day four guys. That farther down in round three you get the more it seem to be either scheme fit or BPA on that teams board. Fiske is a tweener type guy. A little heavier than a DE and a lighter than a typical DT unless you want a one gap 3 tech type guy. He'd be a guy to compete with Pickens or they might eventually use him in the role Walker plays. One reason his name came up may be because the Bears have been scouting Verse and Fiske is his linemate.

A smaller speed WR another predictive mock had us taking is Roman Wilson out of Michigan. He's more a guy who presses Tyler Scott whereas Legette is more the replacement for a Velus Jones. Remember, we'd be drafting a #4, #5, or #6 WR here not even a #3. So speed and ST value will count.