Bears trade 4th rd pick to Chargers for WR Keenan Allen
Moderator: wab
- Grizzled
- Hall of Famer
- Posts: 5676
- Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:55 pm
- Has thanked: 642 times
- Been thanked: 522 times
Allen turned down a pay cut. He turned down a multi-year extension with the Chargers; it is thought that this is because he didn't like the salary level he would had under it. So it is possible that he would accept an extension but is looking for more than the Bears will be willing to pay.
Where are my old Chicago Bears and what have you done with them, Ryan Poles?
- The Cooler King
- Hall of Famer
- Posts: 5017
- Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:07 pm
- Has thanked: 1223 times
- Been thanked: 348 times
Never know the exact circumstance. Maybe LAs extension was a low ball in the 15M range. I think it likely takes 20-21M on extension at least.Grizzled wrote: ↑Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:23 am Allen turned down a pay cut. He turned down a multi-year extension with the Chargers; it is thought that this is because he didn't like the salary level he would had under it. So it is possible that he would accept an extension but is looking for more than the Bears will be willing to pay.
- dplank
- Hall of Famer
- Posts: 12210
- Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
- Has thanked: 1256 times
- Been thanked: 2250 times
- Arkansasbear
- Head Coach
- Posts: 4955
- Joined: Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:41 am
- Has thanked: 480 times
- Been thanked: 698 times
The Chargers GM came out and said they made an offer to him to extend him. His agent said it was a low-ball offer and they countered and the trade occurred.Grizzled wrote: ↑Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:23 am Allen turned down a pay cut. He turned down a multi-year extension with the Chargers; it is thought that this is because he didn't like the salary level he would had under it. So it is possible that he would accept an extension but is looking for more than the Bears will be willing to pay.
I'd be curious to see what they were wanting.
-
- Player of the Month
- Posts: 346
- Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2009 3:54 pm
- Has thanked: 137 times
- Been thanked: 177 times
- HisRoyalSweetness
- Hall of Famer
- Posts: 6118
- Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:20 pm
- Has thanked: 64 times
- Been thanked: 1881 times
Grizzled wrote: ↑Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:23 am Allen turned down a pay cut. He turned down a multi-year extension with the Chargers; it is thought that this is because he didn't like the salary level he would had under it. So it is possible that he would accept an extension but is looking for more than the Bears will be willing to pay.
I wonder if Poles was aware of the counter offer prior to making the trade. Technically until the trade happened Allen was a Chargers player so would he have been able to have any conversations with Allen's agent?Chargers GM Joe Hortiz discusses Keenan Allen decision: 'I knew who I was trading'
New Los Angeles Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz's first massive decision came early in his tenure: to trade longtime great Keenan Allen to Chicago for a fourth-round draft pick.
Hortiz said Thursday that he didn't love parting with the player, but financials forced a hard decision.
"Yeah, I knew who I was trading," Hortiz said, via the team's official website. "He's a very talented player and I respect him as a player, as a person. It's difficult when you have to cut a player, trade a player, release a player.
...
Hortiz said the club approached Allen and his reps with "multiple different options," including an extension, but noted "just none of them worked out."
"I think when you're talking about trading Keenan specifically, yeah that's not a decision you make with no acknowledgment of, 'This is a talented player that can still compete,'" Hortiz added.
Allen's agent later responded on social media, saying, "Only one offer was made. It was a pay cut for 2024 with a two-year extension (and both years had even deeper cuts to his current pay). We made a counter offer. It was rejected. Then we were informed of the Chargers intention to trade (Allen)."
...
Full article: https://www.nfl.com/news/chargers-gm-jo ... as-trading
Arise Sir Walter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXdXRP6Hi-U
- Arkansasbear
- Head Coach
- Posts: 4955
- Joined: Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:41 am
- Has thanked: 480 times
- Been thanked: 698 times
Not with the Chargers giving permission which they likely did before the trade occurred.HisRoyalSweetness wrote: ↑Sat Mar 23, 2024 12:47 amGrizzled wrote: ↑Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:23 am Allen turned down a pay cut. He turned down a multi-year extension with the Chargers; it is thought that this is because he didn't like the salary level he would had under it. So it is possible that he would accept an extension but is looking for more than the Bears will be willing to pay.I wonder if Poles was aware of the counter offer prior to making the trade. Technically until the trade happened Allen was a Chargers player so would he have been able to have any conversations with Allen's agent?Chargers GM Joe Hortiz discusses Keenan Allen decision: 'I knew who I was trading'
New Los Angeles Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz's first massive decision came early in his tenure: to trade longtime great Keenan Allen to Chicago for a fourth-round draft pick.
Hortiz said Thursday that he didn't love parting with the player, but financials forced a hard decision.
"Yeah, I knew who I was trading," Hortiz said, via the team's official website. "He's a very talented player and I respect him as a player, as a person. It's difficult when you have to cut a player, trade a player, release a player.
...
Hortiz said the club approached Allen and his reps with "multiple different options," including an extension, but noted "just none of them worked out."
"I think when you're talking about trading Keenan specifically, yeah that's not a decision you make with no acknowledgment of, 'This is a talented player that can still compete,'" Hortiz added.
Allen's agent later responded on social media, saying, "Only one offer was made. It was a pay cut for 2024 with a two-year extension (and both years had even deeper cuts to his current pay). We made a counter offer. It was rejected. Then we were informed of the Chargers intention to trade (Allen)."
...
Full article: https://www.nfl.com/news/chargers-gm-jo ... as-trading
- Grizzled
- Hall of Famer
- Posts: 5676
- Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:55 pm
- Has thanked: 642 times
- Been thanked: 522 times
Good points by you and HRS. The Chargers would have had to give this permission or the Bears could be charged with tampering. Now the question is what does Allen want. It has to be lower than the $23M he will get in '24 but more than the $17M (I think this is the figure offered by the Chargers). So something like 2 years - $40M? 3 years - $60M?Arkansasbear wrote: ↑Sat Mar 23, 2024 7:26 amNot with the Chargers giving permission which they likely did before the trade occurred.HisRoyalSweetness wrote: ↑Sat Mar 23, 2024 12:47 am
I wonder if Poles was aware of the counter offer prior to making the trade. Technically until the trade happened Allen was a Chargers player so would he have been able to have any conversations with Allen's agent?
Where are my old Chicago Bears and what have you done with them, Ryan Poles?
- HisRoyalSweetness
- Hall of Famer
- Posts: 6118
- Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:20 pm
- Has thanked: 64 times
- Been thanked: 1881 times
Bears GM: New receiver Keenan Allen a perfect fit for rookie QB
New Bears receiver Keenan Allen is “an absolute perfect fit” for a rookie quarterback, general manager Ryan Poles said Monday.
“I don’t think there’s a better receiver in the league that can be better for a young quarterback in terms of understanding the NFL, timing, space, reading defenses,” Poles said at the league's annual meeting. “So I think that’s a great addition.”
...
The Bears were monitoring the Chargers’ salary cap crunch and decided to engage in trade talks when it was clear Allen, a six-time Pro Bowl player, wouldn’t take a paycut from the only franchise he’d ever known.
“I watched him do some really cool things for a long period of time,” said Poles, whose former team, the Chiefs, once shared a division with Allen. “To watch the tape it actually blew me away of how high of a level he’s still playing at his age.”
...
Allen attended Williams’ pro day — which was near his home in Southern California — decked out in Bears gear.
“I think that speaks volumes about his character,” he said. “I never had to ask the guy to show up anywhere. I certainly didn’t have to ask him to wear Bears stuff. Again, I think that tells us what he’s like.”
The Bears are paying Allen $23.1 million in the last year of his contract, but are interested in keeping him longer than one season. Poles will explore an extension later, saying he might want to reward players who were on the Bears last season first.
“For what he stands for,” he said, “I would love to have him long-term.”
Full article: https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2024 ... e-chargers
Arise Sir Walter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXdXRP6Hi-U
-
- Journeyman
- Posts: 141
- Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:26 am
- Has thanked: 1 time
- Been thanked: 19 times
I'd hold the expectation right now to a 1 year rental. Why Keenan may only be a Bear this year:Grizzled wrote: ↑Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:23 am Allen turned down a pay cut. He turned down a multi-year extension with the Chargers; it is thought that this is because he didn't like the salary level he would had under it. So it is possible that he would accept an extension but is looking for more than the Bears will be willing to pay.
- wab
- Mod
- Posts: 29989
- Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:49 pm
- Has thanked: 133 times
- Been thanked: 2061 times
I think I could get on board with Allen only being a one year rental. I'd like the Bears to keep him for two, but I'd understand them not.
- Arkansasbear
- Head Coach
- Posts: 4955
- Joined: Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:41 am
- Has thanked: 480 times
- Been thanked: 698 times
If that's true, I'd wager it's more likely to see a WR with our second pick.malagabears wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 12:43 pmI'd hold the expectation right now to a 1 year rental. Why Keenan may only be a Bear this year:Grizzled wrote: ↑Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:23 am Allen turned down a pay cut. He turned down a multi-year extension with the Chargers; it is thought that this is because he didn't like the salary level he would had under it. So it is possible that he would accept an extension but is looking for more than the Bears will be willing to pay.
- Grizzled
- Hall of Famer
- Posts: 5676
- Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:55 pm
- Has thanked: 642 times
- Been thanked: 522 times
I like Allen but the Bears won't be signing him to a Mike Evans 2 year $52M deal.malagabears wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 12:43 pmI'd hold the expectation right now to a 1 year rental. Why Keenan may only be a Bear this year:Grizzled wrote: ↑Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:23 am Allen turned down a pay cut. He turned down a multi-year extension with the Chargers; it is thought that this is because he didn't like the salary level he would had under it. So it is possible that he would accept an extension but is looking for more than the Bears will be willing to pay.
Where are my old Chicago Bears and what have you done with them, Ryan Poles?
- Arkansasbear
- Head Coach
- Posts: 4955
- Joined: Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:41 am
- Has thanked: 480 times
- Been thanked: 698 times
If he does leave and signs for that, given the fact we have addressed most of the holes on the roster, we shouldn't need to sign any big FA from the outside and he would count as one of the higher comp picks.Grizzled wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:06 pmI like Allen but the Bears won't be signing him to a Mike Evans 2 year $52M deal.malagabears wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 12:43 pm
I'd hold the expectation right now to a 1 year rental. Why Keenan may only be a Bear this year:
- Ditka’s dictaphone
- Head Coach
- Posts: 4062
- Joined: Sun Apr 04, 2021 12:33 pm
- Has thanked: 701 times
- Been thanked: 907 times
Can we tag him next offseason?
(26/09/2023) Winner of the inaugural
- Moriarty
- Hall of Famer
- Posts: 6937
- Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:22 pm
- Has thanked: 401 times
- Been thanked: 717 times
for 25M, yes
1999-2002: Mouth Off Sports Forum (RIP)
2002-2014: KFFL (RIP)
2014-2016: USAToday Fantasy Sports Forum (RIP)
Hello, my name is Moriarty. I have come to kill your website, prepare to die.
2002-2014: KFFL (RIP)
2014-2016: USAToday Fantasy Sports Forum (RIP)
Hello, my name is Moriarty. I have come to kill your website, prepare to die.
-
- Journeyman
- Posts: 141
- Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:26 am
- Has thanked: 1 time
- Been thanked: 19 times
If we would want to move up:
- Arkansasbear
- Head Coach
- Posts: 4955
- Joined: Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:41 am
- Has thanked: 480 times
- Been thanked: 698 times
If we live in the world where it is thought that CW, Daniels, Maye and JJ are all going early (I'm still not sold, but it's at least gaining some chatter about it), I think they could get a bigger return trading to a team that felt they HAD to have that 4th QB. I say 4th because I'm 100% sold we are taking CW and Washington is taking a QB. N.E. either takes a QB or trades down to a team that wants a QB.
It will be a QB picks 1-3, dare I say "book it!"
- Rusty Trombagent
- Hall of Famer
- Posts: 7409
- Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:19 am
- Location: Maine!
- Has thanked: 586 times
- Been thanked: 1033 times
- Grizzled
- Hall of Famer
- Posts: 5676
- Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:55 pm
- Has thanked: 642 times
- Been thanked: 522 times
Looking at the top WR salaries, Mike Evans at 30 was the oldest to sign an extension (for 2 years). There are several who signed 4 year contracts at 28 (Kupp, Tyreek, Diggs, etc.) and 29 (Ridley, Adams, Allen's last contract). So any extension will greatly depend on his expectations. The Chargers wanted to cut his $18M annual salary in any extension:
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/wide-receiver/
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/wide-receiver/
Where are my old Chicago Bears and what have you done with them, Ryan Poles?
- Bearfacts
- MVP
- Posts: 1919
- Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:33 am
- Location: Colorado
- Has thanked: 942 times
- Been thanked: 240 times
As long as we're speculating on Allen and an potential extension let's look at his previous deal and that of D J Moore.
Keenan Allen's previous 4 yr contract through 2023 had an AAV of $20 mil and change w/$43 mil gtd. His 2024 1 year deal was for $23 mil and change.
D J Moore's current contract is a 3 year extension of his rookie deal and has an AAV of $20.6 mil w/$41.6 mil gtd. This contract runs through 2025.
So Poles is already facing a hefty extension for D J after next season which will likely get done during 2025 and we're probably looking at a 4 year deal with an AAV of around $25 mil with as much as $60-$70 mil gtd beginning in 2026 at his age 29.
While I gotta believe it's likely that Allen is looking for something close to that in AAV it's unlikely it would be more than a 2 year extension and what Poles may offer is more in line with the 2 yr/$41 mil/$35 mil gtd a 31 year old Mike Evans got from the Bucs. Because Moore's cap cost is only $16 mil for 2024 and 2025 Poles can probably afford Allen for this year and next but I question whether or not he'll want two WR's costing him $20-$25 mil each in 2026 without getting somewhat creative with Moore's deal in year one. So while it's possible to carry Allen for two more years if he's still productive it's more likely Poles want an out in 2026.
But what this is telling us is that our window of having two top shelf #1 WR is relatively short unless Poles does opt to add another WR or two soon with at least one capable of taking on Keenan Allen's role by 2026 if not sooner if Poles can't negotiate and extension with him. Given this scenario we can't look past Poles taking a WR at #9 this year either which is why I believe he's asked his scouts and personnel guys to pitch that along with a DE or an OL. I really believe he plans to stay at #9 or very near it.
Keenan Allen's previous 4 yr contract through 2023 had an AAV of $20 mil and change w/$43 mil gtd. His 2024 1 year deal was for $23 mil and change.
D J Moore's current contract is a 3 year extension of his rookie deal and has an AAV of $20.6 mil w/$41.6 mil gtd. This contract runs through 2025.
So Poles is already facing a hefty extension for D J after next season which will likely get done during 2025 and we're probably looking at a 4 year deal with an AAV of around $25 mil with as much as $60-$70 mil gtd beginning in 2026 at his age 29.
While I gotta believe it's likely that Allen is looking for something close to that in AAV it's unlikely it would be more than a 2 year extension and what Poles may offer is more in line with the 2 yr/$41 mil/$35 mil gtd a 31 year old Mike Evans got from the Bucs. Because Moore's cap cost is only $16 mil for 2024 and 2025 Poles can probably afford Allen for this year and next but I question whether or not he'll want two WR's costing him $20-$25 mil each in 2026 without getting somewhat creative with Moore's deal in year one. So while it's possible to carry Allen for two more years if he's still productive it's more likely Poles want an out in 2026.
But what this is telling us is that our window of having two top shelf #1 WR is relatively short unless Poles does opt to add another WR or two soon with at least one capable of taking on Keenan Allen's role by 2026 if not sooner if Poles can't negotiate and extension with him. Given this scenario we can't look past Poles taking a WR at #9 this year either which is why I believe he's asked his scouts and personnel guys to pitch that along with a DE or an OL. I really believe he plans to stay at #9 or very near it.
-
- Head Coach
- Posts: 2261
- Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:56 am
- Has thanked: 2124 times
- Been thanked: 390 times
I'd be pretty surprised if the Bears trade 9. I'd be beyond shocked if they trade 9 and Nabers(assuming background stuff checks out) or MHJ is there. WR is a pressing need and it can be argued most pressing out of those big 3.Bearfacts wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 1:02 am As long as we're speculating on Allen and an potential extension let's look at his previous deal and that of D J Moore.
Keenan Allen's previous 4 yr contract through 2023 had an AAV of $20 mil and change w/$43 mil gtd. His 2024 1 year deal was for $23 mil and change.
D J Moore's current contract is a 3 year extension of his rookie deal and has an AAV of $20.6 mil w/$41.6 mil gtd. This contract runs through 2025.
So Poles is already facing a hefty extension for D J after next season which will likely get done during 2025 and we're probably looking at a 4 year deal with an AAV of around $25 mil with as much as $60-$70 mil gtd beginning in 2026 at his age 29.
While I gotta believe it's likely that Allen is looking for something close to that in AAV it's unlikely it would be more than a 2 year extension and what Poles may offer is more in line with the 2 yr/$41 mil/$35 mil gtd a 31 year old Mike Evans got from the Bucs. Because Moore's cap cost is only $16 mil for 2024 and 2025 Poles can probably afford Allen for this year and next but I question whether or not he'll want two WR's costing him $20-$25 mil each in 2026 without getting somewhat creative with Moore's deal in year one. So while it's possible to carry Allen for two more years if he's still productive it's more likely Poles want an out in 2026.
But what this is telling us is that our window of having two top shelf #1 WR is relatively short unless Poles does opt to add another WR or two soon with at least one capable of taking on Keenan Allen's role by 2026 if not sooner if Poles can't negotiate and extension with him. Given this scenario we can't look past Poles taking a WR at #9 this year either which is why I believe he's asked his scouts and personnel guys to pitch that along with a DE or an OL. I really believe he plans to stay at #9 or very near it.
Long term, WR makes the most sense imo. You pair Caleb with his future number 1 who he will have his whole career. You use Keenan for a year maybe 2. And you hope you can sign DJ to an extension. But neither of those can be with Caleb forever. A guy at 9 can be here for 10+ years. It makes a lot of sense. Now arguments can absolutely be made for TE, DE and OL as well.
I think OL and TE are pretty straight forward. Its DE and WR where it gets tricky. I agree with alot of what you said. I would add tho, people here have a way worse impression of Walker at DE then Flus and Poles. He's starting next year even if they draft a DE at 9
- dplank
- Hall of Famer
- Posts: 12210
- Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
- Has thanked: 1256 times
- Been thanked: 2250 times
Agree on Walker. I want a DE because I think that helps both DE and DT, by allowing Walker to move around. We simultaneously add the extra edge rotation and DT pass rush rotation.
We have nothing behind Walker right now so he really can’t move around, and he/sweat can’t play every down. The drop off is major when they have to come off.
We have nothing behind Walker right now so he really can’t move around, and he/sweat can’t play every down. The drop off is major when they have to come off.
-
- Head Coach
- Posts: 2261
- Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:56 am
- Has thanked: 2124 times
- Been thanked: 390 times
I think it will really come down to who Poles think is the BPA at one of those big positions. If Nabers(assuming background checks out) or MHJ are there I don't see him passing on them. I think those 2 are a tier above any of the defensive prospects. But if they are gone it becomes a bit trickier.
I'd surely choose offense. Receivers don't play every snap either and Allen is known to get dinged up. I want Williams given every advantage, to have no excuses like "oh but allen went down and thats why he struggled since teams doubled moore". Plus the defense with Walker was performing as one of the best in football after the Sweat trade. The offense with Moore and the rest was far, far worse. We are one injury from Caleb being in that position.
BUT , its a legit discussion on top defender vs wr #3. In both the WR and DE rooms there is a huge drop off from starter to back up. I do expect Poles to draft one of those at 9
I'd surely choose offense. Receivers don't play every snap either and Allen is known to get dinged up. I want Williams given every advantage, to have no excuses like "oh but allen went down and thats why he struggled since teams doubled moore". Plus the defense with Walker was performing as one of the best in football after the Sweat trade. The offense with Moore and the rest was far, far worse. We are one injury from Caleb being in that position.
BUT , its a legit discussion on top defender vs wr #3. In both the WR and DE rooms there is a huge drop off from starter to back up. I do expect Poles to draft one of those at 9
- dplank
- Hall of Famer
- Posts: 12210
- Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 am
- Has thanked: 1256 times
- Been thanked: 2250 times
Yea I’m with you if a big 3 wr falls then take him. I’d then go and bring Greene or Ngakoue back, both are still unsigned.
- Bearfacts
- MVP
- Posts: 1919
- Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:33 am
- Location: Colorado
- Has thanked: 942 times
- Been thanked: 240 times
I believe this is both where and why Poles has asked his guy to form 3 committees with each pitching a different position at #9; WR, DE, OL. Admittedly this draft is somewhat thin on top DE/Edge talent especially when the top guy Turner is not ranked to go before pick #8 or #9. The bevy of QB and the need for them is one reason for it but three WR have never gone in the top ten before which tends to prove by how much they may out rate the DE.HurricaneBear wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:55 amI'd be pretty surprised if the Bears trade 9. I'd be beyond shocked if they trade 9 and Nabers(assuming background stuff checks out) or MHJ is there. WR is a pressing need and it can be argued most pressing out of those big 3.Bearfacts wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 1:02 am As long as we're speculating on Allen and an potential extension let's look at his previous deal and that of D J Moore.
Keenan Allen's previous 4 yr contract through 2023 had an AAV of $20 mil and change w/$43 mil gtd. His 2024 1 year deal was for $23 mil and change.
D J Moore's current contract is a 3 year extension of his rookie deal and has an AAV of $20.6 mil w/$41.6 mil gtd. This contract runs through 2025.
So Poles is already facing a hefty extension for D J after next season which will likely get done during 2025 and we're probably looking at a 4 year deal with an AAV of around $25 mil with as much as $60-$70 mil gtd beginning in 2026 at his age 29.
While I gotta believe it's likely that Allen is looking for something close to that in AAV it's unlikely it would be more than a 2 year extension and what Poles may offer is more in line with the 2 yr/$41 mil/$35 mil gtd a 31 year old Mike Evans got from the Bucs. Because Moore's cap cost is only $16 mil for 2024 and 2025 Poles can probably afford Allen for this year and next but I question whether or not he'll want two WR's costing him $20-$25 mil each in 2026 without getting somewhat creative with Moore's deal in year one. So while it's possible to carry Allen for two more years if he's still productive it's more likely Poles want an out in 2026.
But what this is telling us is that our window of having two top shelf #1 WR is relatively short unless Poles does opt to add another WR or two soon with at least one capable of taking on Keenan Allen's role by 2026 if not sooner if Poles can't negotiate and extension with him. Given this scenario we can't look past Poles taking a WR at #9 this year either which is why I believe he's asked his scouts and personnel guys to pitch that along with a DE or an OL. I really believe he plans to stay at #9 or very near it.
Long term, WR makes the most sense imo. You pair Caleb with his future number 1 who he will have his whole career. You use Keenan for a year maybe 2. And you hope you can sign DJ to an extension. But neither of those can be with Caleb forever. A guy at 9 can be here for 10+ years. It makes a lot of sense. Now arguments can absolutely be made for TE, DE and OL as well.
I think OL and TE are pretty straight forward. Its DE and WR where it gets tricky. I agree with alot of what you said. I would add tho, people here have a way worse impression of Walker at DE then Flus and Poles. He's starting next year even if they draft a DE at 9
Every analyst also seems to agree that Turner is not as good or NFL ready as Will Anderson was last year who was a top five pick. In fact after Turner some are even saying others would still be on the board in the mid teens. So while there's no doubt any of the top four can contribute as rookies there isn't a dominant top five DE/Edge in this class. If Poles and Flus see this and agree I believe there are some role player type they can get in the 3rd or 4th round.
Another option is a 1 year deal for a FA like Emmanuel Ogbah or the ageless Calais Cambell both of whom are still productive and like Demarcus Walker can play both DE and DT. If WR becomes the priority and the guy they like is still on the board at #9 I can see this as an option too. Campbell got $7 mil from ATL last year and I imagine Ogbah could be had for a similar amount. That's less than he paid Ngakoue last year but I suppose he could also be considered.
As for the OL I'd like to believe Poles is fairly well satisfied with who his starters are and with the vet depth he brought in. Jones is an above average LT whose probably not quite reached his ceiling and he gets the job done. He's at least as good a pass blocker as Leno was and a far better run blocker. Wright should mature into a solid RT. The question marks are at OG. Can Davis turn himself around and have a much better year and can Jenkins stay on the field for 17 games and earn a nice extension?
So I believe OL may be Poles lowest priority but again it comes down to a BPA deal at #9 and also what opportunities even exist for trading down. We can speculate all we like about what he could or should so but the reality is any trade is unlikely until after pick #8 has been called. Poles is not gonna trade until he knows whose gonna be there but I also believe that if he has found a trading partner or two that may be all but wrapped up before then. Bottom line is #9 is gonna be a mystery 'til draft night.