CBS SPORTS: Ranking top QBs from 2020-2024 draft classes: Here's how Caleb Williams, C.J. Stroud and others stack up

[IotaNet]

I wasn't sure where to put this one, so I decided to create a new thread.

This article is from CBSsports.com and definitely raises some interesting points:

"How would C.J. Stroud stack up to Caleb Williams? How about if we threw Jordan Love or Will Levis in the mix? What about Drake Maye, Anthony Richardson, and Jalen Hurts?

Although these questions relate to the same position, this exercise can be likened to comparing apples to oranges to grapes. There's no perfect way to rank a collection of players mixed between the NFL and college.

Based on what we've seen in the first four years in the NFL from the famed 2020 quarterback group, the first three seasons from the 2021 quarterback class, the down 2022 collection, the rookie seasons from Stroud and Co, and projecting the 2024 class forward, below is how I'd rank the passers from 2020 all the way to 2024."



Continues here: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... -stack-up/

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Thanks for the link but…….WTF?

Love - 2nd
Maye - 4th in the list , what?
Caleb - 6th probably fair.
Hurts - 11th
Lawrence - 12th

Sorry, but I think this writer has been on the glue.

[Bearfacts]

"I have him lower than Maye on this list for that last reason. For as jaw-dropping as he can be creating outside the pocket as a runner and a how-did-he-find-that-receiver thrower, I'm slightly worried about him resorting to that backyard style a bit too much in the NFL and how sustainable it will be."

Maybe someone should remind him that no one played more "backyard/playground" football at times than Aaron Rodgers did in his prime. He killed teams with it, especially the Bears. It's that element in CW I see more than I see Mahomes in him. Is it sustainable? No one knows but Rodger kept at it most of his career. I also don't get Love as #2 on the basis a single year as a starter.

Just as Burrow shouldn't be dinged for missing time due to an injury I don't believe Love should be boosted to a #2 spot until he's shown he's able to repeat what he did in 2023 and that actually goes for Stroud as well. Once more tape is out there and digested in the offseason will either be equally successful in 2024? And that's not to sat CW deserves to be ranked higher. I just believe it's a poor analysis that many pro scouts and personnel guys would not agree with.

It's C- level work not A level work. The entire premise seems kind dumb and unprofessional.

[TheWorldBreaker]

"I have him lower than Maye on this list for that last reason. For as jaw-dropping as he can be creating outside the pocket as a runner and a how-did-he-find-that-receiver thrower, I'm slightly worried about him resorting to that backyard style a bit too much in the NFL and how sustainable it will be."

Maybe someone should remind him that no one played more "backyard/playground" football at times than Aaron Rodgers did in his prime. He killed teams with it, especially the Bears. It's that element in CW I see more than I see Mahomes in him. Is it sustainable? No one knows but Rodger kept at it most of his career. I also don't get Love as #2 on the basis a single year as a starter.

Just as Burrow shouldn't be dinged for missing time due to an injury I don't believe Love should be boosted to a #2 spot until he's shown he's able to repeat what he did in 2023 and that actually goes for Stroud as well. Once more tape is out there and digested in the offseason will either be equally successful in 2024? And that's not to sat CW deserves to be ranked higher. I just believe it's a poor analysis that many pro scouts and personnel guys would not agree with.

It's C- level work not A level work. The entire premise seems kind dumb and unprofessional.

It’s lazy work, someone that actually watched all of his tape cut a 20 + minute video of him playing in structure:

[Arkansasbear]

I wasn't sure where to put this one, so I decided to create a new thread.

This article is from CBSsports.com and definitely raises some interesting points:

"How would C.J. Stroud stack up to Caleb Williams? How about if we threw Jordan Love or Will Levis in the mix? What about Drake Maye, Anthony Richardson, and Jalen Hurts?

Although these questions relate to the same position, this exercise can be likened to comparing apples to oranges to grapes. There's no perfect way to rank a collection of players mixed between the NFL and college.

Based on what we've seen in the first four years in the NFL from the famed 2020 quarterback group, the first three seasons from the 2021 quarterback class, the down 2022 collection, the rookie seasons from Stroud and Co, and projecting the 2024 class forward, below is how I'd rank the passers from 2020 all the way to 2024."



Continues here: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... -stack-up/

That is simply a stupid way to rank them. Jordan Love goes to #2 because he's had a successful year in the NFL? Stroud gets a higher ranking than Herbert??? One good year as a rookie trumps all I guess.

Not worth the read IMO. I was hoping it was ranking them on the potential as a prospect when they entered the draft.

[dplank]

It's brutally bad writing and logic.

[Grizzled]

I know the writer is evaluating rookies based on their college performances and projecting that talent to the pros. But it's like comparing apples to oranges, not valid comparing pros to undrafted rookies.

[Moriarty]

Not worth the read IMO. I was hoping it was ranking them on the potential as a prospect when they entered the draft.

I know the writer is basing rookies based on their college performances and projecting that talent to the pros. But it's like comparing apples to oranges, not valid comparing pros to undrafted rookies.

Trying to compare guys who have played at the pro level to guys who haven't is pretty difficult.

But, at the same time, trying to compare how good a prospect they were coming out, when some have played pro already, is also extremely hard. You'll never escape the pull to revise history based on how well they've done as a pro. The ones who flopped will suddenly have "huge question marks that were obvious to everyone" and the ones who became studs will have "amazing talent that was clearly going to lead to big things".

The only way to escape that is if you give a very granular score (like 0-100) to QBs coming out every year and save results. You can compare what you thought about each crop. But that only works for someone doing that and keeping their old results public.

[Arkansasbear]

Not worth the read IMO. I was hoping it was ranking them on the potential as a prospect when they entered the draft.

I know the writer is basing rookies based on their college performances and projecting that talent to the pros. But it's like comparing apples to oranges, not valid comparing pros to undrafted rookies.

Trying to compare guys who have played at the pro level to guys who haven't is pretty difficult.

But, at the same time, trying to compare how good a prospect they were coming out, when some have played pro already, is also extremely hard. You'll never escape the pull to revise history based on how well they've done as a pro. The ones who flopped will suddenly have "huge question marks that were obvious to everyone" and the ones who became studs will have "amazing talent that was clearly going to lead to big things".

The only way to escape that is if you give a very granular score (like 0-100) to QBs coming out every year and save results. You can compare what you thought about each crop. But that only works for someone doing that and keeping their old results public.

I agree if compare Lawrence, Burrow, whoever to Williams it will be hard to keep their pro performance out of the evaluation. But I do think most of these "experts" are going to have their writes from when they entered the draft, so they could hopefully rely on that.

[malk]

Brock Purdy at 7th. Hoo boy! 17-4 with a 7.2 TD percentage.

[Boris13c]

Thanks for the link but…….WTF?

Love - 2nd
Maye - 4th in the list , what?
Caleb - 6th probably fair.
Hurts - 11th
Lawrence - 12th

Sorry, but I think this writer has been on the glue.

shit articles like this prove we are in the off season and I do NOT share this idiot's opinions at all

with as high as he ranked fucking Jordan Love, this Trapasso asshole is probably a Packer fan ... so fuck him and his opinions

[wulfy]

I know the writer is evaluating rookies based on their college performances and projecting that talent to the pros. But it's like comparing apples to oranges, not valid comparing pros to undrafted rookies.

More like comparing apples to howler monkeys. There just isn't a logical way to do this exercise he takes on .... NFL QB drafting is 100% about projection - which is why it's so difficult to do.

And no offense to CBS Sports, but they haven't had an Ace draft writer ever. They should spend some money and go hire Dane Brugler.

[Boris13c]

I know the writer is evaluating rookies based on their college performances and projecting that talent to the pros. But it's like comparing apples to oranges, not valid comparing pros to undrafted rookies.

More like comparing apples to howler monkeys. There just isn't a logical way to do this exercise he takes on .... NFL QB drafting is 100% about projection - which is why it's so difficult to do.

And no offense to CBS Sports, but they haven't had an Ace draft writer ever. They should spend some money and go hire Dane Brugler.

I think CBS should hire the howler monkey you reference ... some chimp randomly banging on a keyboard could create something more sensible than the shit this choad just puked up on their behalf

[realred2]

Wouldn't it be better to compare the previous years QB's based on their incoming draft measurables and info? Then the ones with experience in the NFL can be re-ordered to see how the 2024 draft QBs with similar measurables and info might progress?

like based strictly on the pre draft measurables:
1. CW
2.Herbert
3. Mahomes
4.Lawrence
5.Love (or whatever order they fall out to be, I don't really follow pre draft stuff)

And then be like, of the ones with experience in the NFL now:
1. Mahomes
2. Purdy
3. Herbert
4. Love etc.

And the incoming guys match up with measurables from these existing guys this way:
CW had very similar measurables to Mahomes based on the Draft info
Maye was similar to Purdy
Daniels similar to Love, etc? (again, I know nothing of how they match up)

But wouldn't that make more sense?

[IotaNet]

... More like comparing apples to howler monkeys ...

I think CBS should hire the howler monkey you reference ... some chimp randomly banging on a keyboard could create something more sensible than the shit this choad just puked up on their behalf

Howler Monkeys?

Did someone say Howler Monkeys???

[Yogi da Bear]

I would love to hear that come out of Caleb's mouth when he takes the podium.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Marc Sessler has done a list of QB draft ranks since 2000:

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-draft-rank ... since-2000

[Moriarty]

Marc Sessler has done a list of QB draft ranks since 2000:

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-draft-rank ... since-2000

Just to clarify for everyone - this is retrospective rankings, based on how well everyone panned out.

[Boris13c]

Marc Sessler has done a list of QB draft ranks since 2000:

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-draft-rank ... since-2000

Just to clarify for everyone - this is retrospective rankings, based on how well everyone panned out.

and that makes sense ... let them play and compete and when the season is over do the comparisons ... or even let it go 3 or 5 years before comparing

all of these chuckleheads try to pretend made up comparisons or projections based on college play is the same thing and it is not ... don't care how detailed your review of college play was, there is absolutely no way college success can always equate to success in the pros ... to pretend otherwise, and to say you just KNOW what is going to happen makes you a clueless asshole ... which means there are a lot of festering bunghole Mel Kiper wannabees out there

[Moriarty]

Marc Sessler has done a list of QB draft ranks since 2000:

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-draft-rank ... since-2000

I couldn't resist doing a quick analysis on this:

I assigned 5 pts for every QB drafted 1-10, 3 pts for 11-20, 1 pt for 21-40
Totaled them up for each year
Graph, trendline, averaged in groups



The result is definitely noisy, but there is also very definitely a pattern





Bottom 4 classes = 7.25 draft pts/yr, on average
next 5 = 11/yr
middle 5 = 11.25/yr
2nd highest 5 = 12.8/yr
highest 5 = 15.2/yr


In sum: While there is considerable variance involved, how promising a draft class looks in advance (number of highly ranked/drafted prospects) is definitely still predictive of how successful the class will ultimately be.
(A point that came up within the 'Great' Justin/Caleb debates)

Fun(?) side note: the award for Biggest Disappointment Class goes to...2021, tied for the most QBs taken early (21 pts worth), but only the 17th/24 in quality. Yes, that's the Justin Fields class. Easily the most underachieving group in the last 24 years.

[Arkansasbear]

So haven't been on here in a few days, but I want everyone to know at some point this after noon, I will be working "howler monkeys" into my ruling. (dealing with parents who have had their kids come into state custody and working to get them back so it will be easy at some point to do that - will not be directed towards the parents, they need every bit of encouragement they can get, but their attorneys will make some stupid argument and I can work it in)

[dplank]

So haven't been on here in a few days, but I want everyone to know at some point this after noon, I will be working "howler monkeys" into my ruling. (dealing with parents who have had their kids come into state custody and working to get them back so it will be easy at some point to do that - will not be directed towards the parents, they need every bit of encouragement they can get, but their attorneys will make some stupid argument and I can work it in)

Please follow up with details

[LacertineForest]

Marc Sessler has done a list of QB draft ranks since 2000:

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-draft-rank ... since-2000

I couldn't resist doing a quick analysis on this:

I assigned 5 pts for every QB drafted 1-10, 3 pts for 11-20, 1 pt for 21-40
Totaled them up for each year
Graph, trendline, averaged in groups



The result is definitely noisy, but there is also very definitely a pattern





Bottom 4 classes = 7.25 draft pts/yr, on average
next 5 = 11/yr
middle 5 = 11.25/yr
2nd highest 5 = 12.8/yr
highest 5 = 15.2/yr


In sum: While there is considerable variance involved, how promising a draft class looks in advance (number of highly ranked/drafted prospects) is definitely still predictive of how successful the class will ultimately be.
(A point that came up within the 'Great' Justin/Caleb debates)

Fun(?) side note: the award for Biggest Disappointment Class goes to...2021, tied for the most QBs taken early (21 pts worth), but only the 17th/24 in quality. Yes, that's the Justin Fields class. Easily the most underachieving group in the last 24 years.

Very cool of you to put this together!

[grendel2000]

So haven't been on here in a few days, but I want everyone to know at some point this after noon, I will be working "howler monkeys" into my ruling. (dealing with parents who have had their kids come into state custody and working to get them back so it will be easy at some point to do that - will not be directed towards the parents, they need every bit of encouragement they can get, but their attorneys will make some stupid argument and I can work it in)

The long arm of the law invokes the Howler Monkey ultimatum... I love it!

[Yogi da Bear]

So haven't been on here in a few days, but I want everyone to know at some point this after noon, I will be working "howler monkeys" into my ruling. (dealing with parents who have had their kids come into state custody and working to get them back so it will be easy at some point to do that - will not be directed towards the parents, they need every bit of encouragement they can get, but their attorneys will make some stupid argument and I can work it in)

The long arm of the law invokes the Howler Monkey ultimatum... I love it!

[Arkansasbear]

So haven't been on here in a few days, but I want everyone to know at some point this after noon, I will be working "howler monkeys" into my ruling. (dealing with parents who have had their kids come into state custody and working to get them back so it will be easy at some point to do that - will not be directed towards the parents, they need every bit of encouragement they can get, but their attorneys will make some stupid argument and I can work it in)

Please follow up with details

So we are having a hearing and the caseworker is talking about how bad the visits are going between mom, who no one can figure out what's wrong with her no drug issues not mental health issues, she is just mean as a snake, and her 17 year old daughter are going. They are going horrible. The kid keeps trying to defuse the situation but the mom according to the caseworker "just starts yelling at (kid's name) like some sort of wild animal." At which point I throw in "like a howler monkey?" The caseworker replies "that's a perfect description." I keep keep a stoic poker face but deep down, I"m smiling from ear to ear.

This is the same caseworker that was working with a family that a had a pet wolf. Only family I know with one of those. Surprisingly, the home had all sort of environmental neglect issues (I think they had dogs, cats, a duck and wolf that all lived in the house - none of which were "potty trained."). So in a hearing where she was describing the inside of the house she went room by room and said the back room is where the wolf stayed, but didn't give any description of that room. The attorney for either the mom or dad asked her what the condition of that room was and she said she didn't know. They followed up with "why don't you know?" Her reply was "I don't go in rooms with wolves."

It would be awesome if I could video every hearing and at the end of the day save the best clips. When I started in '07 I bought a flash drive (with my own money so it wasn't subjected to the Freedom of Information Act) and we would keep a journal of best things that happened (such as when I ask a man if he wanted paternity testing or if he knew he was the father and without batting an eye he replies "It's always momma's baby and every daddy's just a maybe") About 2 years ago my laptop was having issues and IT took it to work on it. I wasn't in the office when they came and the flash drive was in it. Hasn't been seen since.

[dplank]

hahahah thanks Ark!!

You have the making of a great book on that thumb drive man...

[Yogi da Bear]

Please follow up with details

So we are having a hearing and the caseworker is talking about how bad the visits are going between mom, who no one can figure out what's wrong with her no drug issues not mental health issues, she is just mean as a snake, and her 17 year old daughter are going. They are going horrible. The kid keeps trying to defuse the situation but the mom according to the caseworker "just starts yelling at (kid's name) like some sort of wild animal." At which point I throw in "like a howler monkey?" The caseworker replies "that's a perfect description." I keep keep a stoic poker face but deep down, I"m smiling from ear to ear.

This is the same caseworker that was working with a family that a had a pet wolf. Only family I know with one of those. Surprisingly, the home had all sort of environmental neglect issues (I think they had dogs, cats, a duck and wolf that all lived in the house - none of which were "potty trained."). So in a hearing where she was describing the inside of the house she went room by room and said the back room is where the wolf stayed, but didn't give any description of that room. The attorney for either the mom or dad asked her what the condition of that room was and she said she didn't know. They followed up with "why don't you know?" Her reply was "I don't go in rooms with wolves."

It would be awesome if I could video every hearing and at the end of the day save the best clips. When I started in '07 I bought a flash drive (with my own money so it wasn't subjected to the Freedom of Information Act) and we would keep a journal of best things that happened (such as when I ask a man if he wanted paternity testing or if he knew he was the father and without batting an eye he replies "It's always momma's baby and every daddy's just a maybe") About 2 years ago my laptop was having issues and IT took it to work on it. I wasn't in the office when they came and the flash drive was in it. Hasn't been seen since.

When I attended a preliminary support hearing during my divorce, there were a number of cases before mine. One was of a mother trying to get sole custody from her ex-husband. She went on and on listing all of this guy's failings--like he couldn't attend the kids athletic events because of his work, stuff like that. After a few minutes of this, the guy turned to his ex and said, "maybe you want to tell the judge about the two underage boys you had sex with while the kids were there." She smirked at him and calmly replied, "actually, there were three." Everybody's jaws dropped, the judge maybe the most. The judge coughed and sputtered a bit and then turned to the mother and said, "maybe you want to drop your motion as I don't think you'll like how I decide it."

Still can't believe it after all these years. The things judges must hear on a daily basis.... Wow.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Please follow up with details

So we are having a hearing and the caseworker is talking about how bad the visits are going between mom, who no one can figure out what's wrong with her no drug issues not mental health issues, she is just mean as a snake, and her 17 year old daughter are going. They are going horrible. The kid keeps trying to defuse the situation but the mom according to the caseworker "just starts yelling at (kid's name) like some sort of wild animal." At which point I throw in "like a howler monkey?" The caseworker replies "that's a perfect description." I keep keep a stoic poker face but deep down, I"m smiling from ear to ear.

This is the same caseworker that was working with a family that a had a pet wolf. Only family I know with one of those. Surprisingly, the home had all sort of environmental neglect issues (I think they had dogs, cats, a duck and wolf that all lived in the house - none of which were "potty trained."). So in a hearing where she was describing the inside of the house she went room by room and said the back room is where the wolf stayed, but didn't give any description of that room. The attorney for either the mom or dad asked her what the condition of that room was and she said she didn't know. They followed up with "why don't you know?" Her reply was "I don't go in rooms with wolves."

It would be awesome if I could video every hearing and at the end of the day save the best clips. When I started in '07 I bought a flash drive (with my own money so it wasn't subjected to the Freedom of Information Act) and we would keep a journal of best things that happened (such as when I ask a man if he wanted paternity testing or if he knew he was the father and without batting an eye he replies "It's always momma's baby and every daddy's just a maybe") About 2 years ago my laptop was having issues and IT took it to work on it. I wasn't in the office when they came and the flash drive was in it. Hasn't been seen since.

Legend

I love it when one takes crazy references and weaves them into serious discussions whilst remaining steadfastly deadpan.
It’s the greatest of “wins”. People look at you as if you’re crazy or joking or demented. They’re thinking “does he realise what he just said?”. Stay strong