Different trade scenario

[Rusty Trombagent]

I'd love a scenario to move back from 9 about 5 or 6 spots, get a R2 in the 40s, for example: Raiders pick at 13 and their R2 at 44.

Then I go Jared Verse and Ricky Pearsall, or one of the Texas WRs (who I don't expect to be there at 44).

Now that's what I'm talking about.

As much as i love odunze (AND I LOVE ODUNZE) this would be pretty sweet.

[wab]

Are you drafting a kid whose elite and may potentially become your # 1 WR or are you drafting for your #3 or #4 WR spot hoping maybe that kid ascends to a be a decent #2 or a slot guy? That's the level of talent you get in the middle rounds. Think Mooney, Scott, or Velus Jones. If you want elite you aren't gonna get him on Day 2 or 3.

Has anybody told Tyreek Hill (R5), Puka Nacua (R5), Amon-Ra St. Brown (R4), Michael Pittman (R2), AJ Brown (R2), Davante Adams (R2) just to name just a few recent All Pro/Pro Bowl WRs... oh and our own Keenan Allen (R3).

We all know media draft evaluators don't have a great track record. We just hope our team's GM and scouts are better and identify talent whenever it's available.

Poles chose Scott in R4 last year with pick 133. Nacua was taken in R5 by the Rams with pick 177. In hindsight I'm sure Poles and other GMs wish they'd been the ones to take the latter.

I'm not as down on Scott as everyone else is. Dude was a junior Olympic sprinter and former RB. He's still learning yet was being compared to T.Y. Hilton when he was at Cincinatti.

I was really happy they got him in R4 because I thought he could have gone as early as late R2. So I'm hoping they give him a chance, even if they draft a WR.

[wulfy]

I'd love a scenario to move back from 9 about 5 or 6 spots, get a R2 in the 40s, for example: Raiders pick at 13 and their R2 at 44.

I would, too, but that requires some luck.
By (original) trade chart 9 to 13 is only worth their R3.
You'd have to go back 10 spots for it to be worth 44



Standard disclaimer: different charts vary, trade don't always follow the charts, sometimes you can get more, but sometimes you also get less, investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks including possible loss of principal amount invested.

I agree, Moriarty .... it all depends on who is on the board at 9. If it's Alt, McCarthy or Nabers or possibly Odunze, it will be a Seller's Market. Or maybe you through in a 4th round next year to get that pick up to a second.

That said, I'm sure I'm much more obsessed about getting a R2 than Poles is.

[Arkansasbear]

I think we're going to find someone of impact at 9. If we can get Odunze or Nabors---boom you take him. If they're gone, you get the best Edge Rusher available.

What do you guys think of this? What about trading up from 75 after having done the above? Maybe you get your Edge guy and then move up considerably from 75 to get a WR that you think can make a difference as the 3. There should be ample talent there. Come up and get Wulfy's guy Pearsall or maybe McConkey.

The other thought is moving up for the pass rush guy if we go WR at 1. That's likely going to mean you have to trade up higher, possibly into R1 again. I dunno, and it's tougher, but I feel like we're going to get a really strong player at 9, and it might be worth it to move up from 75 to get the guy we want. And at that point it could even be a DT like Fiske.

I don't think we have the ammo to move up and I don't see Poles doing it.

WR is deep and can still get talent there at 75 if they want.

[Arkansasbear]

We all know RIcky Pearsall is the Answer - let's just admit it and move along.

Over the weekend I looked a lot at the WRs I do like him a lot more now.

[Arkansasbear]

why this absurd fascination with the WR position? the Bears have DJ Moore & Keenan Allen and whoever is the QB will only have so many throws a game to share the ball with the WR's, TE's and RB's

if they want to get WR help in later rounds, fine ... but to use the #9 pick on a WR would be absolutely ridiculous and ignoring other higher priority team needs IMO

I'm not saying WR needs to be the pick at #9 if one of the top three is there, but getting a WR makes a ton of sense.

Allen, IMO, is here for year only. He is here for one year then gone as he is looking to get one last big payday that Poles isn't going to give him. He helps CW get ready for the NFL this year and the guy we draft doesn't have a ton of pressure on him and he get to grow this year and take over in '25. We then end up with a 3rd round comp pick when Allen goes somewhere else.

At some point we are going to get a WR in the draft I think.

[karhu]

I suspect that the whole question of WR at 9 comes down to how Poles has evaluated the top of the class, Nabers and Odunze in particular.

He might, ferinstance, like what he's seen from Nabers, but might just as easily have questions about how he'll put it together as a pro, based on interviews and other stuff we fans can't know. WR1 on talent, WR3/4 on projection, that sort of thing. I'm not basing this on much, except for the fact that MHJ and Odunze seem like extraordinarily projectable rookies.

So Nabers is the jump-off-the-screen guy who gets overdrafted. If MHJ is gone, that leaves Odunze at 9. He checks out. He fits in our system. You can trust him to take his job seriously and to work on his craft.

There's an argument to be made for him at 9, IMSO:

- He'll come in as WR3, and will learn from two of the best in the game.
- We won't need to re-sign Allen to a big contract and take on an even greater injury risk than we have in 2024; might even get a nice comp pick out of it.
- Even if we move away from Allen after a year, our WR room is stacked for now and largely complete for a long time. Odunze moves up to WR2 next year, and to WR1 when Moore's done in that role. You can build depth slowly behind top-level talent like that. For the foreseeable future, that's a significant position at which we won't have to spend significant resources.

Some of that is hypothetical, but I think it's a highly viable possibility. More importantly, I don't think those observations work with any other possibility at 9. Alt is not the prospect Odunze is, and no LT is going to have the same effect on his unit that a future WR1 would on the WR corps. Verse is even farther away--we'd be hoping that he'd hold his own and move Walker back inside more often, not that he'd develop into a viable replacement for Sweat. I'm not sure who else we might consider; Turner is a fantastic athlete, but for his sake I'd rather see him in a different system. Again, that's just looking at each guy as a prospect, using what any fan knows. But on sheer talent and team-agnostic projectability, I think I'm on solid ground.

If Poles gives that up, I don't think he stays at 9. And crucially, I don't think he trades down for a Brian Thomas or even a McConkey or Pearsall (who might well be a second-rounder by now). I think that's a sign that he'll use some of the Williams-related savings on an extension for Allen, and that Moore/Allen will be the mentors for a wave of low draft picks and FAs who'll round out our corps. The trade-down will be for linemen.

EDIT: It wouldn't surprise me at all if Poles likes Verse a lot, and wants to move down for a shot at him in the middle of the first.

And after all of that, I'd be happy with either approach. Big Odunze fan, though.

[HurricaneBear]

Has anybody told Tyreek Hill (R5), Puka Nacua (R5), Amon-Ra St. Brown (R4), Michael Pittman (R2), AJ Brown (R2), Davante Adams (R2) just to name just a few recent All Pro/Pro Bowl WRs... oh and our own Keenan Allen (R3).

We all know media draft evaluators don't have a great track record. We just hope our team's GM and scouts are better and identify talent whenever it's available.

Poles chose Scott in R4 last year with pick 133. Nacua was taken in R5 by the Rams with pick 177. In hindsight I'm sure Poles and other GMs wish they'd been the ones to take the latter.

I'm not as down on Scott as everyone else is. Dude was a junior Olympic sprinter and former RB. He's still learning yet was being compared to T.Y. Hilton when he was at Cincinatti.

I was really happy they got him in R4 because I thought he could have gone as early as late R2. So I'm hoping they give him a chance, even if they draft a WR.

Who is so down on Scott? The worst I remember seeing was me saying he shouldnt be handed the #3 job but should make the roster and be given more time to develop.

[wulfy]

We all know RIcky Pearsall is the Answer - let's just admit it and move along.

Over the weekend I looked a lot at the WRs I do like him a lot more now.

Soak it in, Ark!

[dplank]

Over the weekend I looked a lot at the WRs I do like him a lot more now.

Soak it in, Ark!

He's every Floridaman's wet dream

[thunderspirit]

It sounds like Ryan Poles understands how important the lines are and some of us here do not. The arguments for taking a WR for the Bears second pick do not hold water.

If he doesn't trade down, I foresee a QB, two linemen and then perhaps a WR.

I bet you, Bearfacts, that Poles takes two linemen before he takes a WR. Loser has to write a poem about how good Ryan Poles is.

I think the arguments hold water just fine.

If you want to argue that one should be perceived as more valuable, or that the draft's projected supply of quality offensive linemen isn't as deep as the projected supply of wide receivers, that's fine (and not altogether inaccurate). But to claim that there's no need at WR isn't true.

[RichH55]

I'd love a scenario to move back from 9 about 5 or 6 spots, get a R2 in the 40s, for example: Raiders pick at 13 and their R2 at 44.

Then I go Jared Verse and Ricky Pearsall, or one of the Texas WRs (who I don't expect to be there at 44).

Very plausible.

[RichH55]

It sounds like Ryan Poles understands how important the lines are and some of us here do not. The arguments for taking a WR for the Bears second pick do not hold water.

If he doesn't trade down, I foresee a QB, two linemen and then perhaps a WR.

I bet you, Bearfacts, that Poles takes two linemen before he takes a WR. Loser has to write a poem about how good Ryan Poles is.

I think the arguments hold water just fine.

If you want to argue that one should be perceived as more valuable, or that the draft's projected supply of quality offensive linemen isn't as deep as the projected supply of wide receivers, that's fine (and not altogether inaccurate). But to claim that there's no need at WR isn't true.

Very fair post

[dplank]

IMO playing to the strengths of the draft means getting good players later in the draft than usually would be there. So I favor taking a WR at 75, or many of the various trade down scenarios that have been kicked around and taking one in the 2nd.

Watch Poles take a CB and all our heads explode.

[RichH55]

IMO playing to the strengths of the draft means getting good players later in the draft than usually would be there. So I favor taking a WR at 75, or many of the various trade down scenarios that have been kicked around and taking one in the 2nd.

Watch Poles take a CB and all our heads explode.

Yep - Cam Hart seems like a fit there too - ha

Im really really pumped about this draft and the team. SO I'm trying my best (and usually failing) to not Assume crazy best case scenarios

[BearsFanInMN]

The problem with this is that if you go edge in round 1, the draft is so deep at WR you're going to find a damn good one in the third, maybe even in a trade down from the third. I still think that Brendan Rice makes a whole lot of sense as Caleb is already familiar with him. But there's also somebody like Luke McCaffrey who I really, really like. And you could probably get either one of those in the late third/early fourth.

I agree that there's WR available later that should be good. I'd just feel better if we were like Green Bay was last year at identifying them.

[dplank]

The problem with this is that if you go edge in round 1, the draft is so deep at WR you're going to find a damn good one in the third, maybe even in a trade down from the third. I still think that Brendan Rice makes a whole lot of sense as Caleb is already familiar with him. But there's also somebody like Luke McCaffrey who I really, really like. And you could probably get either one of those in the late third/early fourth.

I agree that there's WR available later that should be good. I'd just feel better if we were like Green Bay was last year at identifying them.

Sadly, I think the #1 component in GB's success is their coach. He's really good. Big difference between our franchise and theirs, they consistently identify and hire offensive minded head coaches dating back to Mike Holmgren.

[thunderspirit]

I agree that there's WR available later that should be good. I'd just feel better if we were like Green Bay was last year at identifying them.

Sadly, I think the #1 component in GB's success is their coach. He's really good. Big difference between our franchise and theirs, they consistently identify and hire offensive minded head coaches dating back to Mike Holmgren.

It's not the only reason — the Packers have consistently shown to have physical measurement thresholds in their receiver selections (and their offensive linemen, for that matter) that obviously matter.

But the ability to coach those players into significant contributions is a really big, important factor.

[IotaNet]

Boy, I can tell by all of the restless energy around here that next Thursday night is going to be BIG!!!



Are we going to have the discord open?

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Loser has to write a poem about how good Ryan Poles is.

There is a GM named Poles
Who has a clear set of goals
He’s rebuilt his team
So Bears’ fans can dream
Of winning some more Super Bowls

[Umbali]

After having read all of this and agreeing with all of it ( lmao thats how fucked up this is ) my question is: I know we have 9 picks next year and 2 of them are round 2 I believe. What is the value of a next years pick being traded vs a this year pick being traded? Like if we decided to try and move UP into the 2nd round this year etc?

[HurricaneBear]

Since we will be drafting 32 next year they should trade up using the 1st. It will never be worth more than it is right now!

[thefish7]

Seems like there is a pickup in noise that MHJ wants to be a Bear and is telling teams "Eli-like" things. I assume that's all just BS, but if MHJ wants to be a Bear, trade leverage is all theirs.

[Arkansasbear]

After having read all of this and agreeing with all of it ( lmao thats how fucked up this is ) my question is: I know we have 9 picks next year and 2 of them are round 2 I believe. What is the value of a next years pick being traded vs a this year pick being traded? Like if we decided to try and move UP into the 2nd round this year etc?

Typical you down grade a round - next’s year’s 2nd equals this years third.

[o-pus #40 in B major]

It sounds like Ryan Poles understands how important the lines are and some of us here do not. The arguments for taking a WR for the Bears second pick do not hold water.

If he doesn't trade down, I foresee a QB, two linemen and then perhaps a WR.

I bet you, Bearfacts, that Poles takes two linemen before he takes a WR. Loser has to write a poem about how good Ryan Poles is.

I think the arguments hold water just fine.

If you want to argue that one should be perceived as more valuable, or that the draft's projected supply of quality offensive linemen isn't as deep as the projected supply of wide receivers, that's fine (and not altogether inaccurate). But to claim that there's no need at WR isn't true.

Apologies for being indirect about wide receivers - I do understand there's a need at WR and in retrospect that would have been made clear had I not said "perhaps a WR."

So, thanks for helping me clarify my statement.

Of course you think the arguments hold water just fine, and I do respect your reasoning and your conclusion - I simply disagree. We could debate those arguments - which I know you are well capable of - but my reasoning is less structured than yours and it's more of a gut thing.

All that aside, I reiterate my prediction that Poles takes two linemen before he drafts a WR. That's in the form of a bet if you feel a bit of sport would be fun. Loser has to write a poem about RP.

[o-pus #40 in B major]

Loser has to write a poem about how good Ryan Poles is.

There is a GM named Poles
Who has a clear set of goals
He’s rebuilt his team
So Bears’ fans can dream
Of winning some more Super Bowls

What a talent. Thanks a million, HRS.

[Bearfacts]

Read my response to Sweetness.

There's a difference between good WR and elite WR and one or two years of production doesn't make any player elite at any position. Elite is achieved across an entire career of top production. Keenan Allen is elite. D J Moore is becoming elite. In this draft, and only this draft not any other, there are three WR ranked as elite prospects coming out of college. I can't recall any recent draft with three WR all pegged to go in the top ten. There's not a single boom or bust guy among them. They are as blue as it gets.

Yes, you could look to trade down but how are you certain the one guy you want will be there? You can't. What's unique about this draft is there at least a 50% chance or better one of that trio will still be on the board at #9 and worth every bit of that pick. Others may be a fit later but where and how do you assure yourself of getting one. This is real world stuff not mock draft GM stuff. There are a lot of very good WR in this draft but three are ranked far above the others for a reason. They are the top sure things.

I've already said I'm good with whatever Poles elects to do I just want him to be every bit as sure about the long term prospects for whoever he drafts at #9 or after trading down as he is with CW. The best way I know how to do that is draft the BPA over positional need especially in this draft where the DL are not considered elite prospects. We need more blue chip difference makers especially on offense and with one WR only signed through 2024 and another through 2025 now would be a good time to draft a WR.

That all I have brother.

You know, looking through all those drafts to find lower round WRs, I don't think that this is as cut and dried as you might think. Since, you don't want to consider the younger receivers, I'll start four years back in 2020.

That year Henry Ruggs was the first WR taken, followed by Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Jalen Raegor. Only then did you get Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, and Michael Pittman. Then you had a bunch of receivers, including Claypool, until you got Gabe Davis in the fourth.

Then in 2019, you had Marquise Brown and N'Keal Harry in the first. Then you had Deebo Samuel and AJ Brown in the second, then four receivers until you had DK at the end of the second and Diontae Johnson and Terry McClaurin in the third. 2018 I won't argue with as DJ was the first receiver taken and everybody knows he's the best. lol

But then in 2017 you had Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross all taken in the top ten. Then you had Zay Jones, Curtis Samuel, and JuJu Smith-Shuster taken in the second. It wasn't until the third that Cooper Kupp was taken, followed by Chris Godwin and Kenny Golladay later in the third, after a few other receivers.

In 2016, you had Corey Coleman, Will Furer, Josh Doctsin, and Laquon Treadwell all taken in the first, followed by Sterling Sheppard in the second. Only then did you get Michael Thomas and Tee Higgins. Tyreek Hill was taken much later in the fifth.

In 2015, you had Amari Cooper and Kevin White followed by seven other receivers until you had Tyler Lockett in the third. Stefon Diggs came in the fifth.

In 2014, you had Sammy Watkins, Mike Evan, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, and Kelvin Benjamin all taken the first. Then Marquise Lee, Jordan Mathews, and Paul Richardson in the second. Only then did you get Davante Adams.

The misjudgment of receivers happens in almost every draft. I think this could be like that Justin Jefferson/Brandon Aiyuk draft where Brian Thomas and Adonai Mitchell are every bit as good as the Top 3 if not better. Well, not MHJ, but Nabers and Odunze, I think that it's quite possible.

Consequentially, if we want a second round pick, I think we're much better off trading down in the first rather than trading up from the third. But in my Picnic Basket, I went DL in the first, because I think of all the receivers who will make Caleb the most comfortable would be Brenden Rice, because he knows him. Rice is who he typically looked for when he got in trouble. And then I think the additions of Keenan Allen along with DJ is going to go a long way to helping our other receivers like Velus and Scott. Incidentally, don't forget that Keenan Allen was a third round pick in 2013. lol

Ordinarily I would be opposed to drafting a WR in the top ten for two reasons; 1) guys like Kevin White happen, and 2) the Bears don't know what to do with them anyway.....or at least the pre-Poles Bears didn't. We've wasted picks on QBs and failed to draft the best WR talent. But this year I believe there are also two reasons to draft a WR at #9; 1) CW and investing in his growth at QB, and 2) there are three potentially elite prospects with can't miss future All Pro written all over them. That's rare.

I won't be upset if Poles decided to go in a different direction but if say Odunze is there at #9 I'll wonder what it was that made him decide not to take a kid with his talent and obvious high character. As much as I acknowledge that we do have a need at DE and better depth at OT I believe the opportunity to pair CW with a top shelf rookie WR offers the best choice in the long haul. Even through that WR starts off as #3 on the depth chart he and CW will be developing rapport from day one.

I don't deny that there have been great WR taken after round one but the very best have more typically been high first round picks and even players team have spent a fortune to trade up for like Julio Jones. I also acknowledge that it's deep draft for WR talent but when three of those WR are there ranked far above all the others if you can draft one IMHO you do it. This team needs more top shelf blue chip talent. Guys who are difference makers and who win you games. That what top point scorers do.

[Bearfacts]

You might get a guy day 2 but not so much after that. A couple of your examples have yet to show they're elite. And unless your definition of elite differs from mine (and it seems to) a few good years doesn't make any player elite. It takes an entire career to do that. Nacua has been in the league one year. Come back at me nine years from now.

So whose elite from this group? Allen would qualify since he's been a 1000 yard receiver any year when he's played a full season or nearly a full season. Davante Adams. A.J Brown, gettin' there. Tyreek Hill. The rest could become elite but aren't yet. Now, go back and look at those who were 1st round picks and you'll find even more.

Come on, we both know the odds are far better earlier in the draft and in this one there's not one elite WR but three or four. Not even one of them is ranked as a boom or bust type and this is the only draft we're dealing with right now. Not 2023 or 2025 or 2020 or 2018 or any other one but this one. If Poles wants a WR with the potential to be elite I'd say take him at #9 and increase the odds.

So younger All Pro/Pro Bowl players aren't "elite" because "it takes an entire career " to achieve that status but "there's not one elite WR but three or four" in this draft despite them having yet to start their NFL careers?

There's a definite contradiction there.

Ultimately though the point is that top notch WRs are regularly found outside the first round. In an apparently deep draft for WRs that might influence Poles' choice of whether to choose one with the #9 pick, trade down from there or trade up from his pick in R3 or R4.

I don't really care what he does as long as he lands at least one genuine blue chip player and a couple of solid contributors.

No, there isn't because each has that potential across the course of their career to be seen as elite. I made no claim that they already are elite as NFL WR but they have been in the college ranks. That's not a sure thing but it sure helps when the obvious talent is there to begin with and confirmed by their college careers.

Yes, "top notch" WR can be found later than the beginning of round one and have been. But the best, the Julio Jones' and Larry Fitzgerald types are more typically top ten pick or even top five picks. In a draft without the QB talent this one has and the need for a QB by so many teams at least one or possibly two of these WR would be top five picks. I've seen Odunze ranked as high as 5th or 6th overall. If Poles can get him at #9 that's a high value pick IMHO and a player we can use immediately.

I'm 100% in lock step with you on getting one blue chip player in addition to CW and depending on how Poles and his staff see it there could be as many as a half dozen or more players who would fit that niche. Some won't still be on the board but I'm betting at least 3-4 will be. This is why I would prefer to see him draft one and not trade down unless he can still be assured of getting one of them. I just believe the one least likely to last beyond pick #9 is Odunze or Naber is he falls but of the two I think Odunze is more likely.

While I don't have a strong objection to taking a DE I just feel this class lacks elite pass rushers at the top but that's not to say Turner or Verse or the other two, Latu and Robinson won't all be good pros. Maybe what it comes down to is looking ahead at next years FA and draft class to determine whether or not they could do better waiting until them to add someone they feel is superior to those available now and instead spend that 3rd round pick on a DE/Edge for the rotation. That's just my take on it.

[grendel2000]

Loser has to write a poem about how good Ryan Poles is.

There is a GM named Poles
Who has a clear set of goals
He’s rebuilt his team
So Bears’ fans can dream
Of winning some more Super Bowls

Well played! BRAVO!

[LacertineForest]

Loser has to write a poem about how good Ryan Poles is.

There is a GM named Poles
Who has a clear set of goals
He’s rebuilt his team
So Bears’ fans can dream
Of winning some more Super Bowls

Got any Penix poems?