The 2024 Draft

[RichH55]

Brad Biggs did his v3.0 mock with the Bears amazingly passing on Naber, Odunze, and Alt to trade down w/Denver for a 3rd and they take Washington OT Troy Fautanu. FWIW Alt, Fuaga, and Fautanu all carry a nearly identical NFL Post Combine Grade.

Don't think he's a Tackle

[wab]

Brad Biggs did his v3.0 mock with the Bears amazingly passing on Naber, Odunze, and Alt to trade down w/Denver for a 3rd and they take Washington OT Troy Fautanu. FWIW Alt, Fuaga, and Fautanu all carry a nearly identical NFL Post Combine Grade.

Don't think he's a Tackle

I think he goes higher than people think.

[RichH55]

Don't think he's a Tackle

I think he goes higher than people think.

Could be the case - though its not like mocks have him late 1st (usually)

He seems pretty plug and play - get yourself a bunch of years of Pro Bowl Guard

[HisRoyalSweetness]

I wasn't sure where to post this article from Next Gen Stats, but this thread is as good as any given the debate around this #9 pick is focused primarily on WR vs Edge and they're two of the positions that get mentioned.

I've included the titles of the three trends but you really need to read the article to understand what they're truly about. It's interesting stuff and may give an insight into the type of players Poles might be more inclined to draft.

2024 NFL Draft: How three trends in pro football connect to this year's prospect class

1) Prospects are getting lighter and faster

2) QBs are taking longer to throw -- but throwing shorter passes

3) The Shanahan effect is real

https://www.nfl.com/news/2024-nfl-draft ... pect-class

[Bearfacts]

Don't think he's a Tackle

I think he goes higher than people think.

He played OT in college and has enough length for OT in the NFL. His size and style make it seem more likely he'll end up at OG but he's another where team may value his versatility. If Poles is looking for an OL to add top level depth and turn into a starter in year two he'd be a good prospect but maybe not as high as #9. Personally I don't believe Poles will draft and OL this high again but it's not impossible. We are lacking in higher caliber depth.

[cblaz11]

I saw he had his pro day yesterday and Bears were in attendance. From the outside looking in, he looks like a perfect fit for our defense. 6-2, 300lbs of solid muscle, crazy twitch and explosion. That said, I have not really watched much on him. From the mocks I’ve seen, I’m seeing him go late 1, that seems kinda surprising. Could he be a guy we target after a trade down or trade up? Why am I missing with him?

[wulfy]

Murky medicals, primarily. Had a foot injury that can sometimes become chronic.

[G08]

I haven't watched enough of him, but I vaguely recall early in the college football season he was considered a top-tier player.

[wab]

Early in the year people were talking about him as a top 10 pick. He spent the season moving back and forth from DT to DE and never really settled in. Plus he has a gimpy foot that rears it's head from time to time.

[Bearfacts]

Pending whatever medical evaluations teams have on him if there's no long term negative it looks like he'll go anywhere from the very late 1st round to the early 2nd round. If Poles and Flus wanted him that badly they might be able to cut a deal with Carolina sending back the 2025 2nd we own and whatever else it would take to seal the deal. How are they fixed at RB? Herbert is trade bait now.

[STLINI]

I say all this as a huge Illini fan that watched every game Johnny played in, so just wanted to be clear. His foot injury has something like a 99% chance of being fixed by the surgery he had. Guy had very few injuries in college, and would not be a concern for me.

Johnny was one of if not the most disruptive defensive lineman in college football the last 2 years. Even with a foot injury this year, he was a force in the middle. He was constantly double and even triple teamed, and still wreaked havoc. He is very, very quick for an interior lineman.
He led the NCAA in pressures the last 2 years from the DT position. In his game against Penn State this year, it was clear he was the best player on the field on either side of the ball.

The only knock on Johnny has been that he doesn't have "ideal" size. But I don't really get that argument that much. He's 6'2" - 304 pounds. That seems pretty ideal height and weight for a 3 tech. I guess they've said his arms aren't the longest.

He was considered a top 10 prospect but had dropped because of the size thing, not from his play. I would not at all be disappointed if he was the pick at #9. I wouldn't take him over the top 3 WR's, and maybe you could get him in a trade down. But I know we need edge rushers, but if Johnny performs like he did in college, he'll help the edge guys with his push up the middle. I might take Dallas Turner over him, but not sure I'd take any of the other edge guys over him.

[Grizzled]

Don't see him dropping lower than 19, the Rams need a Donald replacement. If the Bears trade down, it will come down to him, Murphy, Latu, Verse, Thomas, or an OT.

[cblaz11]

Great input..started watching and reading some stuff on him.

I’ve seen a lot of drafts having him go after 25…I see a much better player on tape. Aaron Donald, no. That said, he could be a poor man’s Donald and I’d be happy with that. Especially when you factor in what we can get in a trade down.

[Rusty Trombagent]

Don't see him dropping lower than 19, the Rams need a Donald replacement. If the Bears trade down, it will come down to him, Murphy, Latu, Verse, Thomas, or an OT.

Rams actually kind of hit on a Donald replacement with Kobie Turner last year. I think everyone expects rams to go OT with their first round pick this year anyway.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

For what it's worth:

[Arkansasbear]

His foot could like Tommie Harris’ knee - causes him to slide a bit / is great for a time / then nothing.

[Bearfacts]

This is a draft where it's a shame the Bears don't have that Carolina 2nd this year. I don't believe what may cause Newton to slide is so much his injury as his size. Most teams probably see him as a one gap 3 tech DT only so he's not a proper fit for them. He is for Flus and the Bears but we don't have the ammo to take him in this draft. I think he'll turn out to be a good pro DT.

[Bearfacts]

Nothing we haven't been over before. If the top ten go as expected with Minny trading up for a QB IMHO the most likely of the top position players to still be on the board is Odunze. If that's the case I don't think it would be wise to pass on him at all.

I still think it might go CW, Odunze, DE/Edge, OL.

The 3rd round may lack the better 3 down DE/Edge guys but there are still those who are good pass rushers who can rotate with Walker. I've already touted Mo Kamara as a guy whom I believe could fill that role and there are maybe three or four others.

[dplank]

Nothing we haven't been over before. If the top ten go as expected with Minny trading up for a QB IMHO the most likely of the top position players to still be on the board is Odunze. If that's the case I don't think it would be wise to pass on him at all.

I still think it might go CW, Odunze, DE/Edge, OL.

The 3rd round may lack the better 3 down DE/Edge guys but there are still those who are good pass rushers who can rotate with Walker. I've already touted Mo Kamara as a guy whom I believe could fill that role and there are maybe three or four others.

My prediction is Minny doesn’t trade up and sits where they are and drafts a QB there. McCarthy hype doesn’t materialize as expected. Just a hunch

[dplank]

His foot could like Tommie Harris’ knee - causes him to slide a bit / is great for a time / then nothing.

Foot problems with large men are as scary as knee problems for WR/RBs. They are typically chronic

[UOK]

Saw him in person a few times and he was reasonably impressive. I think he's one of those players who doesn't offer a highlight reel that blows your mind, but as long as he's healthy could be a consistent presence. I think his comp is Justin Jones.

[wab]

Don't see him dropping lower than 19, the Rams need a Donald replacement. If the Bears trade down, it will come down to him, Murphy, Latu, Verse, Thomas, or an OT.

I see this a lot, and from the outside looking in, it does seem like a need. But the Rams have been getting Kobe Turner ready to take over for Donald...and while he's not Donald, he's low key really good.

I think the Rams could just as easily take a DB, Edge, or even an offensive tackle.

[wab]

Nothing we haven't been over before. If the top ten go as expected with Minny trading up for a QB IMHO the most likely of the top position players to still be on the board is Odunze. If that's the case I don't think it would be wise to pass on him at all.

I still think it might go CW, Odunze, DE/Edge, OL.

The 3rd round may lack the better 3 down DE/Edge guys but there are still those who are good pass rushers who can rotate with Walker. I've already touted Mo Kamara as a guy whom I believe could fill that role and there are maybe three or four others.

My prediction is Minny doesn’t trade up and sits where they are and drafts a QB there. McCarthy hype doesn’t materialize as expected. Just a hunch

I think it's going to be a fairly uneventful draft trade-wise. If it is top heavy like everyone is saying, I could see a few teams that are in the top 12-15 swapping with each other, but I don't think there's going to be a trade-a-palooza. You might actually see more activity at the bottom of the first than at the top, with teams trying to move up into the bottom of R1 to get a guy so they can have the 5th year option.

[wulfy]

Rams could use a few pieces on the defense side of the ball. If a trade down for Verse is a consideration, not sure you want to go past the Rams.

[dplank]

I'm really feel strongly that Poles should be using our other 1st on the DL, whether that be a DT or DE. So I don't want to trade down too far here, if at all.

We ranked 17th in DVOA on defense, and we've gone backwards personnel wise this offseason. We swapped EJax for Byard, which may be an upgrade but that's TBD - Byard was far from stellar for the Eagles, so while we can hope that was his circumstance we really don't know. Our big move was resigning JJ, but comparing to last years squad that's just a break even move. Our LB corps is identical. And our DL went backwards, losing our DT1 and DE2 and DE3 - we only signed a couple total scrubs so those remain core losses. And, as is oft said, this defense must generate pressure from the DL to be successful. We were 2nd to last in the league in sacks with a paltry 30 - even with a full year of Sweat that isn't good enough. And we saw our DL get dominated against GB the final week of the season, so we should stop acting like we're going to be a Top 5 unit IMO.

We need a big talent on our DL who can pressure the QB. Sweat alone is not enough, and while we can hope Dexter takes another step that's far from certain and would only still be just getting by. For me, the more I think about this, the stronger I feel about it. We've already made a plethora of moves for the offense, we can't ignore the defense entirely and that's basically what we've done thus far.

Edit: thinking about if we lost DE2/3....Ngakoue was DE1 or 2 and Walker was DE1 or 2, then Sweat came, then not too long after Ngakoue went down. So I suppose it could be argued we lost DE3/4 (Greene being the latter)? I don't know how the snap counts worked out for the short stretch that we had Sweat, Ngakoue, and Walker - I recall Ngakoue getting starters reps every week but maybe I'm not remembering that correctly. But with the loss of Jones, it seems like kicking Walker inside on pass rush downs may be more needed than it was last year when he did it but not all that frequently.

Another edit lol: I found this... https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap ... &year=2023
So, basically pre-Sweat, it was Walker and Ngakoue getting the same reps and Greene as the primary 3rd option. After Sweat arrives, it looks like it's Sweat and Ngakoue as the main 2 as Walkers snaps dip (he still has a healthy amount of snaps, but less than Ngakoue). Then you see where Ngakoue gets hurt mid game, Week 14 and Walker steps in. Then the weeks thereafter his snap count is high % again. Also, snap count is just total snap count so it includes Walkers snaps he took at DT. So while there's not a huge disparity, it's fairly clear that during Sweat's time with the team is was Sweat DE1, Ngakoue DE2, Walker DE3, Green DE4.

[Grizzled]

Brad Biggs did his v3.0 mock with the Bears amazingly passing on Naber, Odunze, and Alt to trade down w/Denver for a 3rd and they take Washington OT Troy Fautanu. FWIW Alt, Fuaga, and Fautanu all carry a nearly identical NFL Post Combine Grade.

Don't think he's a Tackle

Fautanu can play tackle in the pros. He's got the physique plus decent arms (34.5"). But it would be shocking for Poles to pass on 3 blue-chippers at positions of need and ignore DL for a 3rd rounder in a draft not noted for depth. The Bears have the opportunity to really make noise with 2 top 10 picks.

[wab]

Don't think he's a Tackle

Fautanu can play tackle in the pros. He's got the physique plus decent arms (34.5"). But it would be shocking for Poles to pass on 3 blue-chippers at positions of need and ignore DL for a 3rd rounder in a draft not noted for depth. The Bears have the opportunity to really make noise with 2 top 10 picks.

I think he's absolutely going to get consideration at OT. But he can just as easily play all 5 spots, so that's why I think he goes pretty high. Like top 12.

[dplank]

Fautanu can play tackle in the pros. He's got the physique plus decent arms (34.5"). But it would be shocking for Poles to pass on 3 blue-chippers at positions of need and ignore DL for a 3rd rounder in a draft not noted for depth. The Bears have the opportunity to really make noise with 2 top 10 picks.

I think he's absolutely going to get consideration at OT. But he can just as easily play all 5 spots, so that's why I think he goes pretty high. Like top 12.

Center?

[cblaz11]

His foot could like Tommie Harris’ knee - causes him to slide a bit / is great for a time / then nothing.

Foot problems with large men are as scary as knee problems for WR/RBs. They are typically chronic

I’m more nervous about Latu then Newton from an injury standpoint

[G08]

There's that name again...