The 2024 Draft

[Yogi da Bear]

Hey, nobody was worse than me. I pimped him in the first, then we even had a shot at him in the fourth and traded down instead. Worse pick ever in my twenty plus year Picnic Basket.

Did you not have Akili in a basket?

Nope. I thought he was going to go in the Top 3, and I specifically said not trade up for him. But I absolutely would have taken if he fell to us.

[Yogi da Bear]

I think Poles likes tough guys who don't count a man blocked until he is pancaked

Maybe he can mention that to Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones this offseason and tell them to watch Jenkins to see how that's done. So many times on tape Wright seemed to stop after his initial block rather than go looking for extra work and there were instances where Jones could have flopped on his guy but let him get back to his feet.

Which is why if he was to take a tackle, I think he'd favor Fuaga. That guy is an absolute beast.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Good post here. And the more I think on it, the more my conclusion is "Poles wasted a 4th round pick" moreso than "he can't possibly draft a WR". Regarding Everett, that point was simply to show that he's going to get targets in 2024 and there's only 1 football to go around, any rookie WR we draft is going to really struggle to get any targets. DJ and Allen are each used to getting north of 100 targets themselves, it's already going to be an issue IMO with Kmet who also needs a decent volume.

Of course with Waldron at OC and Williams at QB there is, and I know being Bears fans this is nearly impossible for us to comprehend, the possibility that the Bears might actually throw the ball a bit more and not finish a distant last in pass attempts like they did in 2022 (373 attempts) or bottom 6 like they did in 2023 (513 attempts).

Waldron's Seahawks attempted 573 passes in 2022 (15th most) and 575 in 2023 (17th most). In other words they were ranked bang in the middle for pass attempts and yet still threw at least 60 more times than the Bears ever did with Getsy and Fields.

Ryan Poles came from Kansas City and no doubt he, like all of us, is hoping Williams is going to be his Mahomes. The Chiefs threw 651 times in 2022 (5th most) and 635 times in 2023 (2nd most) and last year that was despite not even Kelce surpassing a thousand yards.

There should be more pass attempts than we've been used to seeing. I wouldn't worry too much about there being enough to go around.

[Bearfacts]

I still gotta chuckle about how fans want to keep drafting for defense because that's a Bears tradition. So pass on a more elite player at #9 so we can draft two or three more less elite players with a later 1st round pick and a couple day two picks. Quantity over top quality. We already know how to build good defenses and we have a defensive minded HC whose put several top ten defenses on the field. What we need most of all is an offense to match or better it. We need to score more than 17 points per game.

We've had some very good defenses over the last 20 years or so. How many times did we beat GB twice in a season and win the NFCN back when Lovie was HC? In 2018 we had Hicks, Mack, Goldman, and Floyd rushing the passer along with Smith blitzing from LB. We still manged to lose one game to GB. Since Rodgers began starting in GB it seemed like it was either he and Jordy Nelson stealing our lunch or he and Davante Adams and yet we still value a DE whose not even a top ten ranked guy over a WR who is?

I think we need to stop thinking like we have since the '80s and believing that any current NFL defense under current NFL rules can ever be that dominant again. In today's NFL it's the team who scores most who wins not the team who keeps the other guys from scoring because the game is set up to favor offenses and higher scoring games now. We need to get in step with that or we're gonna keep losing like we have for way too long now. We're too used to low scoring teams and that needs to change big time and now.

Defense isn't completely irrelevant just because the Bears are drafting Caleb Williams. Especially when the Bears have done an excellent job in surrounding Williams with established veterans.

Alt absolutely will not be there.
MHJ absolutely will not be there.
Nabers probably will not be there.
Odunze might not be there.

Bowers should be there, but he'd be a nearly useless luxury pick for 2024. He'd have less game day impact than Verse/Turner/Latu/Murphy.

Sure, if one of the WRs is there, I'd have a hard time arguing against taking one. You take the draft as it comes.

This is all I'm saying. I'm not making a case for defense being irrelevant but rather a case for not trading away from taking a blue chip player at a position that may not be your most immediate need to draft a lesser player who does fit a position you want to fill now.

There will always be short term options to cover those holes a team has left post draft. We've seen that for years and it will continue ad infinitum. IMHO and IMHO only this should be a draft of difference makers on offense. That's the side of the ball that needs to get far better. It's only if Poles cannot draft a difference maker on offense that he should look to trade down and reshuffle the deck.

Again JMHO.

[karhu]

I'll stick with Marshawn Kneeland and raise y'all Tip Reiman.

From what I've seen, Johnson's got Adam Shaheen athleticism: impressive numbers for someone that size, but his play doesn't really bear them out. He's a good blocker, which is absolutely what we should be looking for in a TE. But Reiman's a comparable athlete and streets ahead as a blocker--almost Kittle-level--who runs sharper routes. Comparable hands, and Reiman runs angry after the catch. Maybe Johnson suffered from Penn State's offense, which looked confused and a little sad the couple of times I saw them. Anyway. I like Reiman better where he'll be drafted. Oh, hell, I'll say it: I like Reiman better, period.

[Bearfacts]

I'll take a shot at it. Where do you want me to start because you've pretty much thrown the whole garden at this.

Let's start with we aren't competing for a SB this year (probably not) but we are bringing in a rookie QB and giving him a target many will call one of the most QB friendly WR in the NFL A guy who always seem to get open. That's big and it's also a $23 mil investment in the growth and confidence of your rookie QB for the cost of a 4th round pick in a shallow draft class where a 4th round pick won't get you a starter at another position anyway, Allen will start and he will produce. To Poles it seem that's worth a 4th round pick.

Drafting a WR at #9 is as much about taking the BPA on your board as it is about what happens with Keenan Allen. All anyone knows right now is Allen may be one and done in Chicago. Whether Poles wants to extend him or not also depends on Allen's desire to stay for what Poles will offer vs taking what may be a better offer elsewhere especially if he continues to be as productive as he's been. At best he may last through 2025 so you're investing in a player now who'll be ready to replace him when we are a SB caliber team.

IMHO drafting to fill a need with a lesser player or players in lieu of drafting the BPA is how the Bears have ended up missing out on blue chip difference makers over the years. Poles wants to build a modern NFL offense. That takes top shelf offensive talent. He should have an opportunity to add another with that #9 pick who could easily become a 1500 yard 12 TD scoring machine. This is not the '80s Bears or the '00s Bears. A top dog WR trumps a DE or DT who plays the run well and may get you 8-10 sacks.....maybe.

If there is as much depth and more elite defender coming next year then why not use one of the three top 50 picks we're likely to have on a more elite player(s) and use this years pick on an elite player we can still use now and down the road as a #1 WR? Like you said we're not winning a SB in 2024 so will a DE or DT mean all that much either? No. We'd still be investing for the future but why not invest in an elite player as opposed to a very good player but one with more limited upside and overall impact?

A counter to your counter from Mark Potash:

Why drafting a receiver at No. 9 is not a must-have for Bears

Bears fans’ desperation for a franchise quarterback is only a step or two ahead of their desperation for a franchise wide receiver...

So it’s no wonder that even with the best receiving tandem in franchise history — and certainly the most accomplished — in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, Bears fans are looking for more Thursday in the NFL Draft.

The dream scenario of GM Ryan Poles trading the No. 9 overall pick to move up and draft Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., the son of Colts Hall of Fame receiver Marvin Harrison and one of the best receiving prospects in years, still exists.

And there is still hope the Bears will have a shot at LSU’s Malik Nabers or Washington’s Rome Odunze, two other receivers considered to have difference-making potential.

(That might be a bit of wishful mock-drafting, however, given that it’s possible all three of them might be gone by the No. 9 pick.)

It also remains to be seen whether Poles is as fixated on a receiver as Bears fans are. With Moore and Allen already in the fold, he might have other priorities, especially if a trade-down deal is too good to pass up.

We’ll see about that. But look at it this way: If Poles is right about the more important pick in the draft — USC quarterback Caleb Williams in coordinator Shane Waldron’s offense — drafting a player such as Harrison won’t be as critical as it usually is for the Bears.

Good quarterbacks in good offenses make first-round receivers out of lower-round picks. Hitting on the Williams/Waldron connection would open up all sorts of possibilities that are kind of foreign to Bears fans. It’s the difference between Anthony Miller (second round, 50th overall) and Davante Adams (second round, 53rd).

The Packers turned second- and third-round (or lower) receivers into first-round production for decades with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Adams, Jordy Nelson (third round, 36th), Donald Driver (seventh round, 213th), Antonio Freeman (third round, 90th), Greg Jennings (second round, 52nd) and Randall Cobb (second round, 64th) make for quite a list.

The Saints’ most productive receivers in the Drew Brees era were Marques Colston (seventh round, 252nd) and Michael Thomas (second round, 47th). The Patriots’ most productive receiver in the Tom Brady era was Julian Edelman (seventh round, 232nd). The Steelers’ most productive receivers with Ben Roethlisberger were Antonio Brown (sixth round, 195th), Hines Ward (third round, 92nd) and Mike Wallace (third round, 84th).

All those quarterbacks won the Super Bowl at least once. Since 2008, in fact, the leading receiver on 14 of the 16 Super Bowl winners was drafted after the first round.

So if the Bears miss out on Harrison, Nabers and Odunze in this draft, they have all the hope they need in Williams. It’s more often the elite quarterback who makes the elite receiver than the other way around.

Full article: https://chicago.suntimes.com/2024/04/22 ... s-in-draft

I read it and won't deny that other teams have drafted top WR after the top of round one.....emphasis on "other teams". The Bears have not. We have typically sucked as badly at drafting WR talent as we have QB talent. Alshon Jeffrey was a slight exception but even he was not a guy I'd call elite and his play was enhanced by pairing him with Brandon Marshall.

Even now how did we come buy our two top WR? In trade right? As best I can recall we have yet to draft a truly elite WR HOF level WR in my lifetime as a Bears fan. RB? Hell yes. LB? Them too. DL? Plenty. But a top level WR who year after year is at the top of the league in catches as yardage? No. This year we may have a shot at adding not only an elite QB and also an elite target for him.

I'm not blind to other needs including a possible upgrade at OT. But if one of that trio of WR is still on the board at #9 I believe Poles should send that card up to the podium post haste and not look back knowing he just drafted another top shelf can't miss guy. Only if that play doesn't not exist or some team makes truly ridiculous offer for #9 should he waiver from it. That how sure I am.

[Bearfacts]

I still gotta chuckle about how fans want to keep drafting for defense because that's a Bears tradition. So pass on a more elite player at #9 so we can draft two or three more less elite players with a later 1st round pick and a couple day two picks. Quantity over top quality. We already know how to build good defenses and we have a defensive minded HC whose put several top ten defenses on the field. What we need most of all is an offense to match or better it. We need to score more than 17 points per game.

We've had some very good defenses over the last 20 years or so. How many times did we beat GB twice in a season and win the NFCN back when Lovie was HC? In 2018 we had Hicks, Mack, Goldman, and Floyd rushing the passer along with Smith blitzing from LB. We still manged to lose one game to GB. Since Rodgers began starting in GB it seemed like it was either he and Jordy Nelson stealing our lunch or he and Davante Adams and yet we still value a DE whose not even a top ten ranked guy over a WR who is?

I think we need to stop thinking like we have since the '80s and believing that any current NFL defense under current NFL rules can ever be that dominant again. In today's NFL it's the team who scores most who wins not the team who keeps the other guys from scoring because the game is set up to favor offenses and higher scoring games now. We need to get in step with that or we're gonna keep losing like we have for way too long now. We're too used to low scoring teams and that needs to change big time and now.

Well, if we're using Green Bay as a template, know this:

In the last 22 years, they've only spent 4 draft picks on offense in the first round. 18 have gone towards defense. And they've draft no, as in ZERO, WRs, RBs, or TEs in the first.

Of their four first rounders, 2 went to QBs--Rodgers and Love. And it's interesting to note that both of those choices came when they already had a Hall of Fame QB starting for them.

Their other two first round offensive players were both tackles--Derrick Sherrod and Bryan Bulaga. And they were taken back to back in 2010 and 2011. Since then, 11 of their 12 first round picks have all been defensive players. Jordan Love was the only offensive player they took.

Just saying....

And have the Packers defenses generally been better than ours? In general I'd say no. We have typically drafted much better for defense than they have while they kicked our asses with their offenses.

But let's look at another factor. Over the past 22 years where as GB typically been drafting? More often than not in the bottom 1/3 or so of the first round right? In some cases maybe even the bottom 20%. How often do team find top shelf blue chip offensive talent that late in round one? Top WR, LT, and RBs have nearly always gone in the top five or ten where they had few or zero picks.

Undeniably both Favre and Rodgers were very lucky draws where they got them and maybe Love as well. Favre and Rodgers both made the talent around them better. Maybe we'll be that lucky for once with CW but to date we have not had a QB whose ever been a "force multiplier" and we've sucked at drafting top talent for our passing game. Green Bay very obviously has not.

Is it possible we could pass on a top WR and in this draft take one later who could become a top shelf guy? Sure. But our chances would be much better if we could get on higher in round two where we have no pick. We could trade down but to get a second it would be one in the latter half of round two and we'd be dropping back pretty far in round one to boot.

I'm not gonna go off on Poles no matter who he takes because I trust his long term plan. I just believe the most obvious pick to keep building out that offense for years to come it to take the sure thing BPA at #9 who will more than likely be either a WR or an OT. Over the past week or so and FWIW the top DL except for Murphy have been dropping farther back and to me he's a risky pick top ten.

I don't deny there's more than one way to go here I'm just stating my belief in the best way I know how to do it.

[malagabears]

Interesting stats regarding hit/miss rates for 1st round picks between 2000/19. This was based on whether a 2nd contract was signed with the drafting team.

[thunderspirit]

Kneeland is a good one, and would seem to fit the Poles/Flus mold too. I won't be surprised if he's a trade-down target.

[LacertineForest]

Wow - WR below TEs. I wonder how much of the miss rate is due to players being outright busts vs. teams not being willing to pay for good, but not great performance or other salary cap constraints.

QB is also higher than I thought it would be. 2021 alone has probably colored my view of it (edit: oh yeah, the data only goes from 2000-2019, so 2021 isn't even represented in these numbers).

I wonder how it looks if they narrow to just the top 10 picks in a draft. I assume picks at the top have a higher hit rate.

[dplank]

Can’t miss guys don’t exist.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

But let's look at another factor. Over the past 22 years where as GB typically been drafting? More often than not in the bottom 1/3 or so of the first round right? In some cases maybe even the bottom 20%. How often do team find top shelf blue chip offensive talent that late in round one? Top WR, LT, and RBs have nearly always gone in the top five or ten where they had few or zero picks.

Blue chip offensive talent is often found late in round one or in subsequent rounds, especially when it comes to WRs and RBs. WRs have been gone through previously, but with RBs it's actually quite glaring.

Sure there have been some top RBs drafted high like McCaffrey and Barclay (and the latter's debatable having never been an All Pro) and before them Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch who both made the 2010s All-Decade Team, but there have also been plenty that were drafted later with R2 being a particular sweet spot.

Josh Jacobs (R1, #24)
Najee Harris (R1, #24)
Nick Chubb (R2, #35)
Dalvin Cook (R2, #41)
Jonathan Taylor (R2, #41)
Derrick Henry (R2, #45)
Alvin Kamara (R3, #67)

The other 2 RBs from the 2010s All-Decade Team are LeSean McCoy (R2, #53) and Frank Gore (R3, #65).

Blue chip talent is found outside the top 10 all the time. The best pass rusher in the league is probably TJ Watt and he lasted until #30. The key for Poles (and any GM) is to select the best prospect available when he's on the clock. The higher you pick the more choice you have but we shouldn't get too hung up on the idea that a top 10 pick is going to turn out to be better than a player taken later. There are no guarantees.

[dplank]

Slightly flawed premise here (would count Roquan as a miss) - but those are more corner cases that would only slightly change these percentages

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

This is an interesting graphic. My first thought went to the Combine. The biggest miss positions are the ones that typically put up sexy numbers like the 40, vertical, and show padless ball skills, etc. but then can't seem to translate them to the field at an NFL level. We've so many players shoot up draft boards after the Combine, only to fail because they can't be that player on the field.

[RichH55]

I am going out on a limb here saying I don't think they will draft Alt.
First, they don't really need a LT and
Second Alt appears to be a finesse technician (much like last years ND favorite Peter Skoronski). I think Poles likes tough guys who don't count a man blocked until he is pancaked, and I don't see Alt fitting that mold.
One guru suggested they will take Latham (Lance Zierlein #1 tackle) and move either him or Wright to guard to form an iron curtain on the right.
Probably not, but I see this as more likely than Alt.

Wasn't Skronski Northwestern?

[RichH55]

Slightly flawed premise here (would count Roquan as a miss) - but those are more corner cases that would only slightly change these percentages

Yeah - if you are going to go with 2nd Contract as the litmus test

A) Should be with any team (I bet that colors the Guard situation a decent amount)

B) It should AT Least be for an amount that qualifiest for the Comp Pick formula base - if you resign a guy for near the min. He didn't really work out the way you wanted


I also would be very interested to see if there was a 5th Year Option picked up v. declined part (or extended before that decision) - that is probably a better metric as well

[RichH55]

I really want the Texas monster in the 3rd now (some even have him slipping to 4th)

He can't give you 80% of the snaps ......50% is absolutely pushing it

But he can give you dominant snaps

Absolutely perfect guy for a rotation

[Moriarty]

I really want the Texas monster in the 3rd now (some even have him slipping to 4th)

He can't give you 80% of the snaps ......50% is absolutely pushing it

But he can give you dominant snaps

Absolutely perfect guy for a rotation

I definitely like him.

If he goes low enough and we acquire enough extra picks, I'm down.

[RichH55]

If you are gonna go crazy there is definately a two trade down scenario in Round 1.

Go back to between 12-15 from 9. Then Bowers is still on the Board and KC wants to come up to get the Kelsey replacement

[RichH55]

I really want the Texas monster in the 3rd now (some even have him slipping to 4th)

He can't give you 80% of the snaps ......50% is absolutely pushing it

But he can give you dominant snaps

Absolutely perfect guy for a rotation

I definitely like him.

If he goes low enough and we acquire enough extra picks, I'm down.

Why not just with the 3rd we already have?

[Moriarty]

I definitely like him.

If he goes low enough and we acquire enough extra picks, I'm down.

Why not just with the 3rd we already have?

It's not high enough on my priority list

I've got that pick penciled in for WR, ideally

[Otis Day]

I am going out on a limb here saying I don't think they will draft Alt.
First, they don't really need a LT and
Second Alt appears to be a finesse technician (much like last years ND favorite Peter Skoronski). I think Poles likes tough guys who don't count a man blocked until he is pancaked, and I don't see Alt fitting that mold.
One guru suggested they will take Latham (Lance Zierlein #1 tackle) and move either him or Wright to guard to form an iron curtain on the right.
Probably not, but I see this as more likely than Alt.

Wasn't Skronski Northwestern?

He was.

[Yogi da Bear]

I'll stick with Marshawn Kneeland and raise y'all Tip Reiman.

From what I've seen, Johnson's got Adam Shaheen athleticism: impressive numbers for someone that size, but his play doesn't really bear them out. He's a good blocker, which is absolutely what we should be looking for in a TE. But Reiman's a comparable athlete and streets ahead as a blocker--almost Kittle-level--who runs sharper routes. Comparable hands, and Reiman runs angry after the catch. Maybe Johnson suffered from Penn State's offense, which looked confused and a little sad the couple of times I saw them. Anyway. I like Reiman better where he'll be drafted. Oh, hell, I'll say it: I like Reiman better, period.

Both can block really, really well, and I agree that Reiman might be a better blocker. He's certainly stronger. But I completely disagree with respect to the receiving and route running. Despite his athleticism, Reiman seems klunky to me. Not near as smooth as Johnson. And it shows in the wide disparity in their cone (6.94 to 8.6). That's huge. If you say that Johnson's play doesn't bear out his athleticism, what do you say about Reiman?Johnson's stats double Reiman's: 77 receptions to 41; 938 yards to 420; 12 TDs to 5.

Reiman is strictly an inline TE at the next level. Thomas can be moved all over. I wouldn't mind Reiman in the sixth. But I think I'll stick with Thomas as my guy.

[dave99]

Wasn't Skronski Northwestern?

He was.

I stand corrected
At my age mixing up to schools that close geographically counts as a near miss

[Moriarty]

I'll stick with Marshawn Kneeland and raise y'all Tip Reiman.

From what I've seen, Johnson's got Adam Shaheen athleticism: impressive numbers for someone that size, but his play doesn't really bear them out. He's a good blocker, which is absolutely what we should be looking for in a TE. But Reiman's a comparable athlete and streets ahead as a blocker--almost Kittle-level--who runs sharper routes. Comparable hands, and Reiman runs angry after the catch. Maybe Johnson suffered from Penn State's offense, which looked confused and a little sad the couple of times I saw them. Anyway. I like Reiman better where he'll be drafted. Oh, hell, I'll say it: I like Reiman better, period.

Both can block really, really well, and I agree that Reiman might be a better blocker. He's certainly stronger. But I completely disagree with respect to the receiving and route running. Despite his athleticism, Reiman seems klunky to me. Not near as smooth as Johnson. And it shows in the wide disparity in their cone (6.94 to 8.6). That's huge. If you say that Johnson's play doesn't bear out his athleticism, what do you say about Reiman?Johnson's stats double Reiman's: 77 receptions to 41; 938 yards to 420; 12 TDs to 5.

Reiman is strictly an inline TE at the next level. Thomas can be moved all over. I wouldn't mind Reiman in the sixth. But I think I'll stick with Thomas as my guy.

Reiman's cone was 7.02 seconds, which has a RAS score of 8.6

I think if he actually ran an 8.6, they probably would have taken him out back and had him shot.

[wulfy]

Wow, both those dudes have frying pans for hands.

[Yogi da Bear]

And have the Packers defenses generally been better than ours? In general I'd say no. We have typically drafted much better for defense than they have while they kicked our asses with their offenses.

But let's look at another factor. Over the past 22 years where as GB typically been drafting? More often than not in the bottom 1/3 or so of the first round right? In some cases maybe even the bottom 20%. How often do team find top shelf blue chip offensive talent that late in round one? Top WR, LT, and RBs have nearly always gone in the top five or ten where they had few or zero picks.

Obviously, Green Bay is a testament how untrue this is, at least with respect to WR and RB. Christian Watson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and Robert Ferguson were all second round picks, and towards the end of the second. Antonio Freeman and Robert Brooks were both third rounders. Whatever standard the Packers use to judge WRs, we should steal it. lol As to RBs, AJ Dillon was second rounder and Aaron Brooks a fifth. I'm not even going to go into their offensive line because I think their linemen are allowed to cheat. At least they have been under both Rodgers and Favre.

I'm not even against drafting a WR in the first. It's just that you brought up Green Bay and our failure to beat them, and I just thought that I'd point out that the Packers themselves don't draft WRs in the first very often. Whereas, look at our first round WRs: David Terrell and Kevin White. It's not drafting a first round WR so much as how to evaluate them and having a QB to throw to them of course. Hopefully we fixed that now.

[Yogi da Bear]

Both can block really, really well, and I agree that Reiman might be a better blocker. He's certainly stronger. But I completely disagree with respect to the receiving and route running. Despite his athleticism, Reiman seems klunky to me. Not near as smooth as Johnson. And it shows in the wide disparity in their cone (6.94 to 8.6). That's huge. If you say that Johnson's play doesn't bear out his athleticism, what do you say about Reiman?Johnson's stats double Reiman's: 77 receptions to 41; 938 yards to 420; 12 TDs to 5.

Reiman is strictly an inline TE at the next level. Thomas can be moved all over. I wouldn't mind Reiman in the sixth. But I think I'll stick with Thomas as my guy.

Reiman's cone was 7.02 seconds, which has a RAS score of 8.6

I think if he actually ran an 8.6, they probably would have taken him out back and had him shot.

Lol. Sorry, I was looking at the RAS Score not the time. Oops.

[dplank]

And have the Packers defenses generally been better than ours? In general I'd say no. We have typically drafted much better for defense than they have while they kicked our asses with their offenses.

But let's look at another factor. Over the past 22 years where as GB typically been drafting? More often than not in the bottom 1/3 or so of the first round right? In some cases maybe even the bottom 20%. How often do team find top shelf blue chip offensive talent that late in round one? Top WR, LT, and RBs have nearly always gone in the top five or ten where they had few or zero picks.

Obviously, Green Bay is a testament how untrue this is, at least with respect to WR and RB. Christian Watson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and Robert Ferguson were all second round picks, and towards the end of the second. Antonio Freeman and Robert Brooks were both third rounders. Whatever standard the Packers use to judge WRs, we should steal it. lol As to RBs, AJ Dillon was second rounder and Aaron Brooks a fifth. I'm not even going to go into their offensive line because I think their linemen are allowed to cheat. At least they have been under both Rodgers and Favre.

I'm not even against drafting a WR in the first. It's just that you brought up Green Bay and our failure to beat them, and I just thought that I'd point out that the Packers themselves don't draft WRs in the first very often. Whereas, look at our first round WRs: David Terrell and Kevin White. It's not drafting a first round WR so much as how to evaluate them and having a QB to throw to them of course. Hopefully we fixed that now.

Good post, but folks always seem to leave out what might be the most important factor of all: the coaches. GB has had elite offensive minds since Holmgren was there, it's what they do. They don't hire defensive minded coaches, they build their franchise around their offense and everything else you see is a byproduct of that IMO. Their ridiculous hit rate on QB's and WR's is, in large part, due to this philosophy on coaches. LaFleur is the latest in a long line of them for Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Bears hire guys like Lovie Smith and John Fox and Matt Eberflus and wonder why our offenses aren't as good as Green Bay's - and god forbid we try an offensive coach, we hire tools like Trestman and Nagy FFS.

These things are all interconnected. Football is a complex sport. But Green Bay's method is tried and true: 1) Hire offensive head coaches 2) Draft QB's a lot, even ahead of when you need them 3) Allow those QB's to develop without rushing them on to the field 4) Build the roster around the talents of your starting QB as needed

[LacertineForest]

Slightly flawed premise here (would count Roquan as a miss) - but those are more corner cases that would only slightly change these percentages

Yeah - if you are going to go with 2nd Contract as the litmus test

A) Should be with any team (I bet that colors the Guard situation a decent amount)

B) It should AT Least be for an amount that qualifiest for the Comp Pick formula base - if you resign a guy for near the min. He didn't really work out the way you wanted


I also would be very interested to see if there was a 5th Year Option picked up v. declined part (or extended before that decision) - that is probably a better metric as well

Not sure you can use 2nd contract with any team - even bad players often receive 2nd contracts with other teams, just for a lot less than they would have received if they were good (lots of backup QBs).

I do like the 5th year option idea - it seems pretty rare to decline a 5th year option for even a moderately good player.