Bears sign RB D'Andre Swift to 3yr, $24M contract

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Arkansasbear wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:34 pm The Swift singing is not some obscene contract
Some might say the Swift singing is obscene.

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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 2:11 pm
Arkansasbear wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:34 pm The Swift singing is not some obscene contract
Some might say the Swift singing is obscene.

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Well played sir, well played. Stupid fingers. :frustrated: :frustrated:
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Arkansasbear wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:34 pm
RichH55 wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 9:30 am

Not what I was saying. ( Also I don't really have a lot of issue paying for a guys Age 25/26 seasons - but that's a different discussion)

Basically I am asking - What would you pay for a 2nd Round pick? (I think you might counter that maybe it's more of a 3rd Round pick?)

Swift is gonna cost you Cap Room - yes. He won't cost a draft pick though.

So you either get an additional $17 million (TOTAL) in Cap Room over that 3 year period

OR

a 2nd Round pick
I don't think you can look at from a pick vs pay standpoint. I think you have to look at the overall value you get to the team.

I understand we didn't have a second round pick this year, but since that seems to be the starting point of when to consider drafting a RB, I'll use that in my example.

Let's say a team needs to add a RB. They look over the players they think will be there with their second round pick and who they can sign as a FA. Of course the risk with waiting until the draft is what are you doing if the guys you thought would be there go earlier and you are left with an empty bag or reaching on a player.

The team also has some money to spend in FA and likely needs to address some spots other than RB.

So what make the team better:

1. Signing the FA RB with the money you have and use the draft pick to address another need, or

2. Plan on using the draft pick on the RB and spend the money on different spots on FAs?

The Swift singing is not some obscene contract that could have crippling effects if he doesn't pan out. Poles felt the need to upgrade the spot and I think Swift does that our second round pick ended up being Sweat. So as it relates to this team, I guess we could have not traded for Sweat, used that pick on a RB and signed????????? with the money we gave Swift (for arguments sake I guess we could have taken a lot of what we gave Sweat and gone after Hunter). But once by not trading for Sweat you risk having Hunter (or whoever they want) deciding not come to the Bears. Granted after trading for Sweat you had the risk he would walk, but throwing a ton on money at a guy who has an expiring contract tends to get them motivated as they don't want to risk injury and getting a much small contract.

IMO Swift + Sweat > second round RB + whatever DE they could have signed.
I don't think Sweat plays into this generally

Though Opportunity Cost would in general (I think that is mainly due to the Pick part of it)

But I do disagree here: "I don't think you can look at from a pick vs pay standpoint. "

I think you can - and indeed its basically my premises :)

I DO think you have to take into account the position in question. As Hurricane will undoubtedly (and Persuasively) point out - the HB you pick in the 2nd Round tends to be a Better bet (not foolproof, not 100% safe, but a better bet) than Many other positions.

If you are looking for a QB in Round 2? That might be more than an uphill battle. ILB? C? Guard? HB? In most years there is going to be a good one sitting there for you

Granted there are some assumptions being made here

But ultimately I'm kind of asking : What would you pay in terms of Cap Space for a 2nd Round pick?
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HurricaneBear wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2024 12:59 pm
RichH55 wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:22 am

I'm with you on the no HB in 1st - basically ever.

But - let's play out your 2nd Rounder scenario - to see how it stacks up against your dislike of the Middle Class HB Free Agent

I arbitrarily picked #40 in the draft from 2023 (Foskey) - Took his 4 years guaranteed (8.8ish) and rounded up to 9 for math purposes and because picks tend to rise every year

Swift is 3 years, 24 (best case - and lets go with the best case!) so it's not apples to apples just yet - So lets say 7 million in Cap Room on the 2nd Round Rookie for the 3 Years

OK. Now the NFL comes to you and says: You have 2 options.

1) We give you an extra ~5.7 Million in Cap Room per year for the Next 3 Years for a total of $17 million in Cap Room over that 3 year period
OR

2). You Get the 40th Pick in the Draft

Which side are you taking?
Im not quite following you.

If you want to know if I'd take the 2nd round rookie RB or Swift, the 2nd rounder every time.

I do not think Swift is Elite. Even if he is, there isn't a huge(imo) drop off between elite running backs and good running backs. He has 4(?) years of wear and tear on him. That's starting to get old in running back years. I think one of the worst things you can pay is a running back who is hurt or ineffective.

The 2nd round rookie has a chance to be game changing elite, and a very good chance to be an above average starter. Those types of backs can be had in the 2nd round, unlike most other positions. I also think projecting RBs is alot easier than other positions. Not fool proof. But easier than others.

I want to be clear, i'd have no intention of paying that 2nd round rookie once their deal is up. Let some other team take that risk. I'll have drafted minimum 2 other backs in the mid rounds during those 4 years that are waiting to take over, and the year he walks I probably sink another 2nd or 3rd into the RB room. In my ideal offense, we'd have a rotating stable of backs every year all staggered on their rookie deals running behind a top notch OL.

Sure we may not ever have a Christian McCaffery. I don't think you need one. Have a stable that can do what is needed. Draft the backs, use them up and let them walk, and hopefully collect comp picks.

I don't expect many to agree, especially with Bears fans who love their running backs. But that's what I would love to see happen, not that I expect it to happen. So instead i'll complain about the over paid running backs wasting money.
This is where I have to disagree with you. While I'm uncertain of how one classifies elite vs just damn good based on stats Swift's stats say that he has always been a productive three down RB. It's just that with Detroit he was not listed as a starter and shared carries just as Jahmyr Gibbs has. It wasn't until he played in Philly that he became a starter. He's also not been injured and IMHO he's far from "used up". Here, review his stats; https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... ifDA00.htm

He's averaged just under 150 carries per year and just under 200 total touches per year. Then look at his APC and APT numbers. He's been a very productive RB throughout his career. So I really don't know why anyone is putting Poles down for signing him. We haven't had a back with his overall skill set since Matt Forte retired who was also a 2nd round pick just as Swift was. We needed a back like him and we lacked a 2nd round pick to select one and had to look to FA instead.
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HurricaneBear wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2024 12:59 pm
RichH55 wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:22 am

I'm with you on the no HB in 1st - basically ever.

But - let's play out your 2nd Rounder scenario - to see how it stacks up against your dislike of the Middle Class HB Free Agent

I arbitrarily picked #40 in the draft from 2023 (Foskey) - Took his 4 years guaranteed (8.8ish) and rounded up to 9 for math purposes and because picks tend to rise every year

Swift is 3 years, 24 (best case - and lets go with the best case!) so it's not apples to apples just yet - So lets say 7 million in Cap Room on the 2nd Round Rookie for the 3 Years

OK. Now the NFL comes to you and says: You have 2 options.

1) We give you an extra ~5.7 Million in Cap Room per year for the Next 3 Years for a total of $17 million in Cap Room over that 3 year period
OR

2). You Get the 40th Pick in the Draft

Which side are you taking?
Im not quite following you.

If you want to know if I'd take the 2nd round rookie RB or Swift, the 2nd rounder every time.

I do not think Swift is Elite. Even if he is, there isn't a huge(imo) drop off between elite running backs and good running backs. He has 4(?) years of wear and tear on him. That's starting to get old in running back years. I think one of the worst things you can pay is a running back who is hurt or ineffective.

The 2nd round rookie has a chance to be game changing elite, and a very good chance to be an above average starter. Those types of backs can be had in the 2nd round, unlike most other positions. I also think projecting RBs is alot easier than other positions. Not fool proof. But easier than others.

I want to be clear, i'd have no intention of paying that 2nd round rookie once their deal is up. Let some other team take that risk. I'll have drafted minimum 2 other backs in the mid rounds during those 4 years that are waiting to take over, and the year he walks I probably sink another 2nd or 3rd into the RB room. In my ideal offense, we'd have a rotating stable of backs every year all staggered on their rookie deals running behind a top notch OL.

Sure we may not ever have a Christian McCaffery. I don't think you need one. Have a stable that can do what is needed. Draft the backs, use them up and let them walk, and hopefully collect comp picks.

I don't expect many to agree, especially with Bears fans who love their running backs. But that's what I would love to see happen, not that I expect it to happen. So instead i'll complain about the over paid running backs wasting money.
I can see this plan, it's pretty clever actually. One downside is you kinda constantly risk missing on draft picks and ending up without a good RB on your team, but if you have a top shelf OL I generally agree that you can plug most any RB in there and have success. I'm still happy to got Swift tho...we didn't have a 2nd and we needed a better player at RB IMO. Our OL isn't there yet, and I want that outlet for our rookie QB.
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RichH55 wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 5:23 pm
Arkansasbear wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:34 pm

I don't think you can look at from a pick vs pay standpoint. I think you have to look at the overall value you get to the team.

I understand we didn't have a second round pick this year, but since that seems to be the starting point of when to consider drafting a RB, I'll use that in my example.

Let's say a team needs to add a RB. They look over the players they think will be there with their second round pick and who they can sign as a FA. Of course the risk with waiting until the draft is what are you doing if the guys you thought would be there go earlier and you are left with an empty bag or reaching on a player.

The team also has some money to spend in FA and likely needs to address some spots other than RB.

So what make the team better:

1. Signing the FA RB with the money you have and use the draft pick to address another need, or

2. Plan on using the draft pick on the RB and spend the money on different spots on FAs?

The Swift singing is not some obscene contract that could have crippling effects if he doesn't pan out. Poles felt the need to upgrade the spot and I think Swift does that our second round pick ended up being Sweat. So as it relates to this team, I guess we could have not traded for Sweat, used that pick on a RB and signed????????? with the money we gave Swift (for arguments sake I guess we could have taken a lot of what we gave Sweat and gone after Hunter). But once by not trading for Sweat you risk having Hunter (or whoever they want) deciding not come to the Bears. Granted after trading for Sweat you had the risk he would walk, but throwing a ton on money at a guy who has an expiring contract tends to get them motivated as they don't want to risk injury and getting a much small contract.

IMO Swift + Sweat > second round RB + whatever DE they could have signed.
I don't think Sweat plays into this generally

Though Opportunity Cost would in general (I think that is mainly due to the Pick part of it)

But I do disagree here: "I don't think you can look at from a pick vs pay standpoint. "

I think you can - and indeed its basically my premises :)

I DO think you have to take into account the position in question. As Hurricane will undoubtedly (and Persuasively) point out - the HB you pick in the 2nd Round tends to be a Better bet (not foolproof, not 100% safe, but a better bet) than Many other positions.

If you are looking for a QB in Round 2? That might be more than an uphill battle. ILB? C? Guard? HB? In most years there is going to be a good one sitting there for you

Granted there are some assumptions being made here

But ultimately I'm kind of asking : What would you pay in terms of Cap Space for a 2nd Round pick?
So the whole Sweat thing is just pointing out how you have to do an overall evaluation of how resources were spent. You have a second round pick you are thinking about using to target a RB. Oh wait, Washington is giving us a chance to trade for Sweat!!!! Screw that RB, we'll just throw some cash at one.

I just don't don't support the idea of "we can always just draft a RB and have one on a rookie" much like "OG just grow on trees." :evilgrin: Yes those are two spots you can have success in later rounds. But you still have guys that end up with a desk job in a year or two.

There simply isn't one way to build a winning roster.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2024 11:50 am
RichH55 wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 5:23 pm

I don't think Sweat plays into this generally

Though Opportunity Cost would in general (I think that is mainly due to the Pick part of it)

But I do disagree here: "I don't think you can look at from a pick vs pay standpoint. "

I think you can - and indeed its basically my premises :)

I DO think you have to take into account the position in question. As Hurricane will undoubtedly (and Persuasively) point out - the HB you pick in the 2nd Round tends to be a Better bet (not foolproof, not 100% safe, but a better bet) than Many other positions.

If you are looking for a QB in Round 2? That might be more than an uphill battle. ILB? C? Guard? HB? In most years there is going to be a good one sitting there for you

Granted there are some assumptions being made here

But ultimately I'm kind of asking : What would you pay in terms of Cap Space for a 2nd Round pick?
So the whole Sweat thing is just pointing out how you have to do an overall evaluation of how resources were spent. You have a second round pick you are thinking about using to target a RB. Oh wait, Washington is giving us a chance to trade for Sweat!!!! Screw that RB, we'll just throw some cash at one.

I just don't don't support the idea of "we can always just draft a RB and have one on a rookie" much like "OG just grow on trees." :evilgrin: Yes those are two spots you can have success in later rounds. But you still have guys that end up with a desk job in a year or two.

There simply isn't one way to build a winning roster.
Second contracts aren't guaranteed to work out either.

Get the premium positions down and you can get the others
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Bearfacts wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 8:40 pm We haven't had a back with his overall skill set since Matt Forte retired who was also a 2nd round pick just as Swift was.
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RichH55 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:34 pm
Arkansasbear wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2024 11:50 am

So the whole Sweat thing is just pointing out how you have to do an overall evaluation of how resources were spent. You have a second round pick you are thinking about using to target a RB. Oh wait, Washington is giving us a chance to trade for Sweat!!!! Screw that RB, we'll just throw some cash at one.

I just don't don't support the idea of "we can always just draft a RB and have one on a rookie" much like "OG just grow on trees." :evilgrin: Yes those are two spots you can have success in later rounds. But you still have guys that end up with a desk job in a year or two.

There simply isn't one way to build a winning roster.
Second contracts aren't guaranteed to work out either.

Get the premium positions down and you can get the others
I'd think the success rate of guys signed to a second contract that has some significance in terms of years and money have a higher success rate than guys drafted in the second round.
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Arkansasbear wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2024 3:46 pm
RichH55 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2024 1:34 pm

Second contracts aren't guaranteed to work out either.

Get the premium positions down and you can get the others
I'd think the success rate of guys signed to a second contract that has some significance in terms of years and money have a higher success rate than guys drafted in the second round.
That's an interesting question.

I think you'd really need to set more parameters etc.

But position would matter. The hit rate at non-premium positions SHOULD be higher in the 2nd Round than most others (though recency bias suggests WR keep getting found there)
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Buttressing Hurricane's POV

From Barnwell:
"I'm a little concerned about running back. Free agent signing D'Andre Swift is coming off a big year in Philadelphia, but I'd poke a couple of holes in his performance. After struggling for consistency in Detroit, he started the 2023 season by posting a 63.2% success rate through the first four weeks. He fell off to 38.8% the rest of the way. The NFL Next Gen Stats model thought his production was mostly a product of Philly's blocking, with Swift generating minus-65 rush yards over expectation on 229 rush attempts. The average back with his blocking would have generated 4.9 rushing yards per attempt, the second most generous expectation in the league for a back with at least 100 carries."
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RichH55 wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:32 am Buttressing Hurricane's POV

From Barnwell:
"I'm a little concerned about running back. Free agent signing D'Andre Swift is coming off a big year in Philadelphia, but I'd poke a couple of holes in his performance. After struggling for consistency in Detroit, he started the 2023 season by posting a 63.2% success rate through the first four weeks. He fell off to 38.8% the rest of the way. The NFL Next Gen Stats model thought his production was mostly a product of Philly's blocking, with Swift generating minus-65 rush yards over expectation on 229 rush attempts. The average back with his blocking would have generated 4.9 rushing yards per attempt, the second most generous expectation in the league for a back with at least 100 carries."
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Moriarty wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:43 am
RichH55 wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:32 am Buttressing Hurricane's POV

From Barnwell:
"I'm a little concerned about running back. Free agent signing D'Andre Swift is coming off a big year in Philadelphia, but I'd poke a couple of holes in his performance. After struggling for consistency in Detroit, he started the 2023 season by posting a 63.2% success rate through the first four weeks. He fell off to 38.8% the rest of the way. The NFL Next Gen Stats model thought his production was mostly a product of Philly's blocking, with Swift generating minus-65 rush yards over expectation on 229 rush attempts. The average back with his blocking would have generated 4.9 rushing yards per attempt, the second most generous expectation in the league for a back with at least 100 carries."
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Yeah it didn't exactly give me warm fuzzies
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This on the other hand gave me "warm fuzzies", so much so that I posted it in the DJ Moore thread too!
Philadelphia natives DJ Moore, D'Andre Swift excited to be reunited with Bears

https://www.chicagobears.com/news/phila ... with-bears
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:30 pm This on the other hand gave me "warm fuzzies", so much so that I posted it in the DJ Moore thread too!
Philadelphia natives DJ Moore, D'Andre Swift excited to be reunited with Bears

https://www.chicagobears.com/news/phila ... with-bears
Nice find as always
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