Week 4 // Bears (1-2) vs. Rams (1-2)

[Dardango]

Still don't believe in Waldron and his use (or lack thereof) of personnel. He's gonna have to show improvement over weeks to get real buy-in. DStill want to see RoJo as the workhorse back with Swift and Herbert. And he absolutely needs to rip up that page in the playbook with the bubble screen to DJ.

[HurricaneBear]

2. Even if we do want to worry about it, why would we worry at all about the cost of a Punter? They have such a low cap impact he could be the highest paid P in the league and it wouldn't make any difference at all to our cap situation.

And be worth more then paying a damn running back

[RichH55]

2. Even if we do want to worry about it, why would we worry at all about the cost of a Punter? They have such a low cap impact he could be the highest paid P in the league and it wouldn't make any difference at all to our cap situation.

And be worth more then paying a damn running back

Hurricane - So far this Year overall - (and other years) this is a good take.

This is not the week for it though IMHO

[Shadow]

The week 3 loss to Indy had me upset. Then I realised I had fllen for the hype. I am a firm believer in "Don't Believe the Hype" mantra.
After re-watching the game I came to my senses.

This weeks game had me feeling pessimistically hopeful. The first quarter was brutal. It got progressively better as the game went on.
Too many penalties on both sides of the ball. Tory Taylor won that game by pinning Stafford and his Rams deep time and again. Flipping the field is a new thing for the Bears. I think I like it, I think I like it a lot.

I am back to my Show Me state with my fandom.

If I see one more Screen pass on 3 and medium/long I am going to freal out. Those were the only moments when I yelled at my screen. Which was not good as I was staying in a Gasthaus "Bed and Breakfast" at the time.

Nice win overall. I can enjoy the rest of my vacation without grumbling about the Bears.

It can only get better from here....right?!?!

[HurricaneBear]

And be worth more then paying a damn running back

Hurricane - So far this Year overall - (and other years) this is a good take.

This is not the week for it though IMHO

There is never a bad time to bitch about paying running backs.

When Swift scores, picture me saying "would have been a better 6 points for 6 or 7 million less"

[HisRoyalSweetness]

There is never a bad time to bitch about paying running backs.

When Swift scores, picture me saying "would have been a better 6 points for 6 or 7 million less"

A lesser back would have probably tripped over, rather than leapt over, a prone Kmet and fallen flat on his face.

The Bears rank 13th for cap spend on RBs this season with $10.7m, which amounts to just 4.2% of their cap spend.

The highest is New Orleans at $25.5m and the lowest is the Rams at $4.2m, which is the only team at less than $5m.

Last season the Bears cap spend on RBs was $7.8m, 21st in the league. The increase this season is therefore less than $3m. It's a drop on the ocean.

[Arkansasbear]

Week 1
Looking at this https://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay/_/gameId/401671719 (58 plays)

We had two explosive plays an 11 yard scramble and a 20 yard run by Switf (granted this is me just trying to look at it)

So 2 plays out of 58 is 3.44%

Week 2
https://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay/_/gameId/401671786 (59 plays)

My going through the play-by-play I saw a scramble for 10 and 24 yards and a pass to Rome for 27 (so either I didn't remember when I heard the commentators talk about his first completion over 20 yards or they were wrong.

3 plays out of 59 is 5.1%

Week 3
https://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay/_/gameId/401671865 (80 plays)

All I see is a 27 yard pass to Rome,

1 out of 80 is 1.25%

So it appears week 3 actually brought us down. But there were many passes in the 12-19 yard range which may explain why I was thinking like you that we did better week 3.

(full disclosure I'm missing something I think as I have us at 196 total plays and 6 explosive plays which would be 3.06% not 3.3 that they have.

Last week Williams completed that beautiful 47 yard pass to Odunze as well as that 27-yarder. I guess the 44 yard Hail Mary that Moore caught a yard shy of the end zone at the half would also meet the definition for that graph.

He had a few other completions that were marginally below the 20 yard threshold.

Thanks I was trying to go through it play by play and I was pretty sure I had missed some stuff.

[Arkansasbear]

I used to get roasted for my punter obsession, but now we are seeing what type of impact a really good one can have on a game. He should be ours for 10+ years!!

In all fairness, you tend to get roasted on whatever you post, so you talking about a punter should be no different.

[Grizzled]

Enjoyed reading this about DeMarcus Walker recognizing something with the Rams offense and directing Taylor to take advantage of it:

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-b ... nning-int/

[RichH55]

I think nearly all of us were incredibly excited by the prospect of a good rookie QB who had great weapons, a decent offensive line and a new OC with decent pedigree (Geno resurgence etc.). Seeing the offensive line implode and a few other pieces misfire has been pretty tough.

But what I think makes this worse is that our defence is awful to watch play to play. Not because it's bad but because you feel like we should be stonewalling oppositions every drive so when we're bending but not breaking it feels incredibly stressful/frustrating/infuriating etc. That's going to continue until we sort out our rush defence again and truly become a top defence.

Oh, and slow starts, oof, if we come out and score 10 or, going crazy here, 14 off our first two drives... then we'll see heart attacks of joy!

Yea I think this is mostly it. A lot of it is still tied to what happened with Fields/Getsy and all that stuff, which is still fresh and relevant. A lot of folks oversimplified our problems and just blamed Fields for damn near everything. Remember when a real QB wouldn't take so many sacks? Or how good our OL was "but for" that scrub Fields? And how USC Caleb's floor was Fields current ceiling? Well none of that has turned out to be true, and it's really frustrating and gives people the feeling that the problems weren't that simple and in fact much deeper. OL still a long ways away? Is FLUS really the problem? Even King Poles, could HE be the problem because of his lack of attention to the LOS? How much longer until our team looks like other teams we watch, where everything just looks easier out there? If you were in the camp that all of these things were Fields fault, it's gonna hit you a little different and really sting when you see the exact same damn problems. Same as it ever was is a common refrain on the game chat - because it looks the same. Still taking sacks, still seeing our QB hold the ball too long on several of those sacks - looking as if no one is open BECAUSE THEY OFTEN AREN'T, still seeing gobs of undisciplined penalties, still seeing absolutely head scratching play calls....and then seeing Fields playing well and having success in Pittsburgh also plays a factor in the frustration as it further clarifies that our issues ran much deeper than just the QB. Its depressing and makes it feel like our entire organization sux instead of just one guy, which is such a harder problem to solve.

I think I'm more positive about where we are right now because I never thought Fields was our problem, I never believed that CW floor crap, and I always thought our OL was terrible. So seeing all this makes sense to me, and I'm focused on the improvement that I'm seeing and where we appear to be heading. Its funny because I say all this and I know a few posters are going to read into this the wrong way and are just gonna slam me for this post - but here's the thing: I STILL THINK WE ARE BETTER OFF WITH CW/WALDRON THAN WE WOULD BE WITH FIELDS/GETSY. It's just a little setback getting a rookie QB up to speed and getting a new offense synchronized - I think our arrow is pointing up and we are in for a long stretch of good football. Our OL is going to improve, they already have IMO, and when Poles applies more resources there next offseason we are going to take off and be a full on contender.

Bear down!

People - if they put ANY blame on Fields it was taken as "ALL Fields" Fault - There was a subsection that didn't think Fields did ANYTHING wrong EVER. Played "winning football" - Tonyans Drop was the only reason he was let go, Every advanced stat (except one) on the OL was Lying. Run Game success was ALL Fields (OL Just got lucky), Mooney is terrible and "Never" open (not just Mooney, but DJ Moore and Kmet too), Etc. Etc

And of course - Fields lost when the Pitt Defense didnt' hold the other team to less points than the 85 Bears gave up per game - Fields has been fine. Good? Not really.

They aren't the EXACT same problems though - We can do better than that - even though I know we are required to apologize for Fields.

The open thing is still Not a good take as well. Mooney has looked solid (at least!) in Atlanta . No. Not every play is everyone covered - No. We don't have to do that.

Not expecting SOME issues (Some people thought that CJ Strouds Rookie Year should be the BASELINE for Caleb's Rookie year) with Caleb as a rookie? Especially the first few games? That was never super realistic. And yes - some of these Sacks are on Caleb (what a Shock!)

And yeah - even then he's on pace to better Fields passing numbers. The bar was not set that high.

[RichH55]

Will he be worth paying him three years from now? Supposedly Dickerson at Seattle is the highest paid punter at a little under $4M/yr that he signed in 2020. What kind of contract will Tory Terrific demand in 2026 - $8M/yr? I guess we'll see how things shake out, but with the way the kickoff has changed, having a punter that can change field position is a big +.

1. Why are we worrying about what to pay him in 2028? He's played 4 games in his career.
2. Even if we do want to worry about it, why would we worry at all about the cost of a Punter? They have such a low cap impact he could be the highest paid P in the league and it wouldn't make any difference at all to our cap situation.

I mean you did lead with we should have him for 10+ Years - but yeah Cap Wise it shouldn't be the end of the world (Not quite the same as "it wouldn't make any difference at all "- especially because we will be talking about Caleb's 2nd Contract then and there will be considerably less wiggle room)

But yeah - Punter matters. I think that's often overlooked.

One note on the 10+ Year stuff - Do remember he's already 27.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Kmet and Dexter mic'd up for the game...

[Moriarty]

1. Why are we worrying about what to pay him in 2028? He's played 4 games in his career.
2. Even if we do want to worry about it, why would we worry at all about the cost of a Punter? They have such a low cap impact he could be the highest paid P in the league and it wouldn't make any difference at all to our cap situation.

I mean you did lead with we should have him for 10+ Years - but yeah Cap Wise it shouldn't be the end of the world (Not quite the same as "it wouldn't make any difference at all "- especially because we will be talking about Caleb's 2nd Contract then and there will be considerably less wiggle room)

But yeah - Punter matters. I think that's often overlooked.

One note on the 10+ Year stuff - Do remember he's already 27.

Good punters do have good longevity, though.

Sauerbrun was almost 35 when he retired. Maynard was very nearly 38.

[RichH55]

I mean you did lead with we should have him for 10+ Years - but yeah Cap Wise it shouldn't be the end of the world (Not quite the same as "it wouldn't make any difference at all "- especially because we will be talking about Caleb's 2nd Contract then and there will be considerably less wiggle room)

But yeah - Punter matters. I think that's often overlooked.

One note on the 10+ Year stuff - Do remember he's already 27.

Good punters do have good longevity, though.

Sauerbrun was almost 35 when he retired. Maynard was very nearly 38.

All true - 35 years old only gets you 8 years though?

I know I keep forgetting he's 27 - Doubt I'm alone is all

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Kmet and Dexter mic'd up for the game...

I have to say. I fucking love Kmet. He should be used a lot more than he is. He plays the game like a kid. I love his passion. I hope he's a Bear for a long time.

[Middleguard]

Sorry. I'll score your predictions when I get back to Chicago next week.

[Middleguard]

Massive tie-fest in the top half.
Here are the scores for your week 4 predictions:
2 Bears Whiskey Nut / *VA_Mountain_Bear / HisRoyalSweetness
6 Richie
8 Mikefive / *Noots / LacertineForest
14 o-pus #40 in B major
24 UOK
26 thunderspirit / WagonForce / Shadow / DaBears51
32 thefish7
38 Moriarty / grendel2000
42 wab / G08 / Middleguard / German Bear
50 Atkins&Rebel
54 spudbear
62 RichH55
122 southdakbearfan
126 dplank
134 mmmc_35
146 otis
168 HurricaneBear
224 Z Bear
254 Grizzled
326 JaxBearsFan
350 malk
398 Otis Day
402 crueltyabc
558 Ditka's dictaphone
744 Boris13c
1106 artbest01
1208 Arkansasbear
* duplicate prediction