A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

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Richie
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A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:40 pm

It seems like every season NFL fans make a lot of the same mistakes and never learn from them. One of them I see year, after year is knee-jerk Week 1 reactions. You wait all year long for your team to kick-off their season, anticipating that first game. So, naturally we are quick to rush to judgement immediately and put so many eggs into the basket of this first game. This is especially true when your team has high expectations and even more so when you kick-off against your hated rival.

In reality, Week 1 is CONSTANTLY a terrible tell on what's to come over the course of a 16 game season. This is true all around the league. Not only that, September is a horrible tell. Teams are still shaking off rust, figuring their identity out, figuring out new personnel, getting their timing down, etc.

You really don't know who most teams are until late October-ish. The difference between teams in September and November is so often night vs day.

To demonstrate this, I'll point to last season.

Week 1, 2018

Bucs (5-11) beat New Orleans (13-3 NFC South Champs) 48-40

Packers (6-9-1) beat Bears (NFC North Champs) 24-23

Carolina (7-9) beat Dallas (NFC East Champs) 16-8

Cincinnati (6-10) beat Indianapolis (AFC Wild Card) 34-23

Denver (6-10) beat Seattle (NFC Wild Card) 27-24

Notable Hot-Take: Jets post 48 in a route of the Lions in Detroit and everyone slobs Darnold's knob like the Jets are a surprise contender.

Notable September Performances

Houston 0-3 (won AFC South at 11-5)
Indianapolis 1-3 (would start 1-5 before winning 9 of last 10 to earn WC berth)
Chargers 1-2 (Won 11 of last 13 to finish 12-4 and earn WC berth)
Patriots 1-2 *Would go onto win Super Bowl LIII*

Washington 2-1 (would start 5-2 before finishing 7-9)
Tampa Bay 2-1 (would finish 5-11)
Cincinnati 3-1 (would start 4-1 before finishing 6-10)





This is NOT a declaration that we don't have some real issues to work out from that putrid offensive performance. I am not saying that we need not be worried about Trubisky's lack of growth demonstrated. However, I am really disappointed by the reaction of so many fans who truly believe this season is now suddenly doomed after September 5th! The same fans who were chanting "Super Bowl!" 48 hours ago.

It's truly not how you start, but how you adjust... and ultimately... how you finish.

Very much like last season when we sat here and everyone was in an uproar following a Week 1 loss to our rival (which was worse, in my opinion). All it takes is a few wins and one well polished offensive performance (i.e. vs TB Week 4) to put this well into the rearview mirror.

To be honest, this could be a nice kick in the ass. Honeymoon is over, Nagy. Time to really do some coaching. Trubisky, no one's apologizing for you anymore. I am very intrigued to see how we respond to this.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:46 pm

Dude. God bless you.

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What a great fucking post!
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:56 pm

Richie wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:40 pm
... Honeymoon is over, Nagy. Time to really do some coaching. Trubisky, no one's apologizing for you anymore.
Great post but this ^^^ is the bottom line.

Bears had all offseason to prep for this game, including getting Biscuit ready. Inexcusable. I'm all for Nagy and his "Be You" approach but its time for him and Mitch to man up and deliver.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:49 pm

IotaNet wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:56 pm
Richie wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:40 pm
... Honeymoon is over, Nagy. Time to really do some coaching. Trubisky, no one's apologizing for you anymore.
Great post but this ^^^ is the bottom line.

Bears had all offseason to prep for this game, including getting Biscuit ready. Inexcusable. I'm all for Nagy and his "Be You" approach but its time for him and Mitch to man up and deliver.
Yeah. I'm with this as well. Nagy set his own bar, and it was 12-4. He is a victim of his own success. The honeymoon is over, and there is no more latitude for poor performance. Dan Bernstein brought up a great point today. Nagy, with all of his bluster about Mitch taking the next step, and digesting the playbook so well, destroyed a lot of trust with this game. He sold a bill of goods that just wasn't genuine, and he has to atone for it. I am watching games from last year, and the fear that Nagy is a gimmick HC, or that he's predictable play caller are valid concerns. He was doing the same 3rd and short crap last year, as he did last night. It's a real problem.

We'll see what happens next week. But if they come out and play like they did in last year's Arizona game... Just yikes...
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:03 pm

I was all in on what they were selling this off season ... I thought opening against the Packers at home in Chi-town would be a perfect statement game

and then ....... the cold slap of reality ...... a gimmick coach with a not ready for prime time QB pulling the trigger on an inane offense ... forget building towards a championship ... try building towards competence

yes, it is only 1 game ...but as was mentioned before in the game thread, it isn't that they lost, but how they lost and who they lost to ... seems like the fans were the only ones truly fired up for this

and while the defense was mostly stellar, they did bend over so Rodgers could have his way with them for a key drive ... and unfortunately that is all it took


Richie wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:40 pm
To be honest, this could be a nice kick in the ass. Honeymoon is over, Nagy. Time to really do some coaching. Trubisky, no one's apologizing for you anymore. I am very intrigued to see how we respond to this.
nicely said ... and I am also curious on how they will respond amd it should be a kick in the ass ... but there is a problem

my take is they will lose again this week because Fangio knows all he needs to know to make Trubisky look even more inept ... and starting 0-2 after the pre-season hype (which apparently was smoke and mirrors bullshit since they showed no evidence of what they claimed to be) will be their real gut check ... because if the offense is shown to be frauds 2 weeks in a row, the rest of the teams on their schedule will have the proper roadmap to continue their misery
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:06 am

Boris13c wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:03 pm
I was all in on what they were selling this off season ... I thought opening against the Packers at home in Chi-town would be a perfect statement game

and then ....... the cold slap of reality ...... a gimmick coach with a not ready for prime time QB pulling the trigger on an inane offense ... forget building towards a championship ... try building towards competence

yes, it is only 1 game ...but as was mentioned before in the game thread, it isn't that they lost, but how they lost and who they lost to ... seems like the fans were the only ones truly fired up for this

and while the defense was mostly stellar, they did bend over so Rodgers could have his way with them for a key drive ... and unfortunately that is all it took


Richie wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:40 pm
To be honest, this could be a nice kick in the ass. Honeymoon is over, Nagy. Time to really do some coaching. Trubisky, no one's apologizing for you anymore. I am very intrigued to see how we respond to this.
nicely said ... and I am also curious on how they will respond amd it should be a kick in the ass ... but there is a problem

my take is they will lose again this week because Fangio knows all he needs to know to make Trubisky look even more inept ... and starting 0-2 after the pre-season hype (which apparently was smoke and mirrors bullshit since they showed no evidence of what they claimed to be) will be their real gut check ... because if the offense is shown to be frauds 2 weeks in a row, the rest of the teams on their schedule will have the proper roadmap to continue their misery
I realize that it's "how we lost". However, last year in week 1 was also a "how we lost" issue. To me, when we gave up 31 points to Brock Osweiler and Miami... that was also a "it's how we lost" issue.

When you lose a game where it's for one particularly ugly reason. Also, when you have the convenience of a full season to work on it. When that glaring issue becomes a positive? Like our offense did vs TB in Week 4 last year? It can become a "It's now that we won the game. It's how won the game!" type of positive.

The defense alone will make this team quite solid. It REEEALLLY can't get worse for the offense. There's nowhere to go but up. We aren't going to average 3 points per game. lol
and while the defense was mostly stellar, they did bend over so Rodgers could have his way with them for a key drive ... and unfortunately that is all it took
That drive was in the early 2nd quarter. I mean, good golly... that D was on the field NON-STOP and they constantly answered the bell. It's not their fault that the one TD was all it took. Allowing 10 points to your opposition would have to win you somewhere between 95-99% of the games played in the NFL throughout the course of the season.
my take is they will lose again this week because Fangio knows all he needs to know to make Trubisky look even more inept ... and starting 0-2 after the pre-season hype (which apparently was smoke and mirrors bullshit since they showed no evidence of what they claimed to be) will be their real gut check ... because if the offense is shown to be frauds 2 weeks in a row, the rest of the teams on their schedule will have the proper roadmap to continue their misery
I agree, I circled Denver as one of the trickier games of the season. They haven't lost at Mile High in September since 2013. Plus, you have Vic there and Chubb/Miller coming after Trubisky. I think it's a loss. Then, we'll really see fans jump ship... but... After that? Washington, Minny at home and Oakland in London. Good shot to get on track,

Suddenly, if we beat Denver and the offense looks better. There's 3 games following that we seem to have a strong edge in. The GB game would already be in the rearview mirror to me at that point.

If this offense even had to be "above average" for us to reach double digit wins... I would be as worried as others. However, this D might be 2017 Jacksonville, 2015 Denver good. I don't think the offense is exactly going to have to improve ALL THAT much for us to squarely in the NFC mix.

My hand isn't even near the panic button. We might have the single most dominant unit in football with our defense, with a whole season left just to make the offense serviceable. It's like New Orleans situation last year, but in reverse.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:45 am

Richie, that original post was outstanding. A lot of people here needed to see that. Thank you.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:46 am

Every team faces its own challenges to start the season. To say that we will be OK because other teams overcame their own putrid starts is a bit head in the sand to me.

I get the optimism and need for hope. And I get that it’s possible for everything to turn out OK. But inspirational words won’t heal a kick to the nuts.

Here’s my own “it’s happened before” option:
Paxton Lynch
Blain Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Brady Quinn
Kyle Boller
David Carr
Josh Freeman
EJ Manuel
Brandon Weedon
Patrick Ramsey
JP Losman
Jake Locker
Matt Leinert
Joey Harrington
Robert Griffin
Johnny Manzel

Mitchell Trubisky???
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Sat Sep 07, 2019 1:12 pm

Atkins&Rebel wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:46 am
Every team faces its own challenges to start the season. To say that we will be OK because other teams overcame their own putrid starts is a bit head in the sand to me.
I never suggested that anything would be okay simply because it was for other teams. That wasn't the underlying point.

Hell, I never even really suggested that things would be okay. I simply pointed out why committing mass suicide as a fan-base over our offense making one poopy is a silly, knee-jerk reaction to what happened Thursday evening.

Now, I DO think we will be okay. However, that's mostly unrelated to the OP.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:45 pm

Richie wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:06 am
My hand isn't even near the panic button. We might have the single most dominant unit in football with our defense, with a whole season left just to make the offense serviceable. It's like New Orleans situation last year, but in reverse.
I seem to recall Bears teams in the days of Butkus that also had a defense that would destroy opponents only to lose games 13-6 and 14-10 on a regular basis because the offense couldn't get out of their own way ... and keep in mind, this was an offense with Gale Sayers in his prime yet still found a way to suck

so yes, the current Bears D will keep the Bears in every game ... doesn't mean they will necessarily win many of them

and while I am not ready to simply throw in the season, my confidence in what the Bears are and can be has been impacted significantly
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:57 pm

I've avoided everything Bears and I'm glad that I did. Yes the game was unacceptable and I've got my issues with Trubisky but I still have us as a contender and it'll take quite a few more games like that before I change my mind.

Our offence won't be that bad all year and our defence will be that good. At the moment it doesn't boil down to more than that.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:27 am

Atkins&Rebel wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:46 am
Every team faces its own challenges to start the season. To say that we will be OK because other teams overcame their own putrid starts is a bit head in the sand to me.

I get the optimism and need for hope. And I get that it’s possible for everything to turn out OK. But inspirational words won’t heal a kick to the nuts.

Here’s my own “it’s happened before” option:
Paxton Lynch
Blain Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Brady Quinn
Kyle Boller
David Carr
Josh Freeman
EJ Manuel
Brandon Weedon
Patrick Ramsey
JP Losman
Jake Locker
Matt Leinert
Joey Harrington
Robert Griffin
Johnny Manzel

Mitchell Trubisky???
Hypothetically, if that's true. If we go through an entire season of "one-read" mediocrity at the QB position. Pace needs to step up and make a change. Cut bait, and get a serviceable QB in here that can go through a progression in a pocket, and deliver the ball where it needs to go. Go out and find the best game manager that we can. Because they CAN'T UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES waste this defense, and Mack's contract, on a bunch of 9-7 seasons, with no Super Bowl. Cannot do it.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:24 am

and while I am not ready to simply throw in the season, my confidence in what the Bears are and can be has been impacted significantly
I would hope not...after 4 whole quarters of football.

I think it's interesting that everyone is glossing over how equally terrible the Packers looked on Thursday night. With a hall of fame QB. People are running around here acting like it was 53-3.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:47 am

wab wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:24 am
and while I am not ready to simply throw in the season, my confidence in what the Bears are and can be has been impacted significantly
I would hope not...after 4 whole quarters of football.

I think it's interesting that everyone is glossing over how equally terrible the Packers looked on Thursday night. With a hall of fame QB. People are running around here acting like it was 53-3.
Indeed.

The difference in the game was LITERALLY that they had a jump ball caught by a TE in the end zone for a TD. While ours was caught by the opposing safety for an INT.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:55 am

Boris13c wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:45 pm
Richie wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:06 am
My hand isn't even near the panic button. We might have the single most dominant unit in football with our defense, with a whole season left just to make the offense serviceable. It's like New Orleans situation last year, but in reverse.
I seem to recall Bears teams in the days of Butkus that also had a defense that would destroy opponents only to lose games 13-6 and 14-10 on a regular basis because the offense couldn't get out of their own way ... and keep in mind, this was an offense with Gale Sayers in his prime yet still found a way to suck

so yes, the current Bears D will keep the Bears in every game ... doesn't mean they will necessarily win many of them

and while I am not ready to simply throw in the season, my confidence in what the Bears are and can be has been impacted significantly
Very different time and landscape. Horribly difficult to draw a comparison. I don't remember the last time a team had a truly phenomenal D and did not make the post-season.

See, because I recall VERY recently a team winning the Super Bowl with the literal corpse of Peyton Manning and another getting to the brink of one with Blake Bortles.

Another flaw with your comparison is that this offense has a lot of proven talent within it and showed last year that it's not going to be this pathetic. We won 12 games with this offense and did so with a point differential over +100.

Out of curiosity, why didn't giving up 31 points and losing to Brock Osweiler last year destroy your confidence in the defense? Or did it? Does Atlanta getting blanked today by Minnesota until Minny pulled key starters lead you to actually believe that their offense is a bottom feeder?

Did LA scoring 3 points in the Super Bowl mean their offense is pathetic? Why didn't they lose 14-6 games all year?

The bottom line, is that this self-pity act needs to stop. One game, is one game. We're 60 minutes into the season and it's EARLY SEPTEMBER.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:06 am

It seems like every season NFL fans make a lot of the same mistakes and never learn from them. One of them I see year, after year is knee-jerk Week 1 reactions.
yes, everyone, mostly, knows the first two weeks of the season are usually surprise wins and losses from the wrong teams and then season pans out as somewhat expected.
But call things what they are. Trubisky isnt even a Cutler let alone a McMahon.
he sucks. The Bears will win games on defense and a couple long chucks from Trub.
might even get a wild card. But he is not anyones bright future
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:51 am

Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:27 am
Atkins&Rebel wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:46 am
Every team faces its own challenges to start the season. To say that we will be OK because other teams overcame their own putrid starts is a bit head in the sand to me.

I get the optimism and need for hope. And I get that it’s possible for everything to turn out OK. But inspirational words won’t heal a kick to the nuts.

Here’s my own “it’s happened before” option:
Paxton Lynch
Blain Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Brady Quinn
Kyle Boller
David Carr
Josh Freeman
EJ Manuel
Brandon Weedon
Patrick Ramsey
JP Losman
Jake Locker
Matt Leinert
Joey Harrington
Robert Griffin
Johnny Manzel

Mitchell Trubisky???
Hypothetically, if that's true. If we go through an entire season of "one-read" mediocrity at the QB position. Pace needs to step up and make a change. Cut bait, and get a serviceable QB in here that can go through a progression in a pocket, and deliver the ball where it needs to go. Go out and find the best game manager that we can. Because they CAN'T UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES waste this defense, and Mack's contract, on a bunch of 9-7 seasons, with no Super Bowl. Cannot do it.
Understood that the first word of your post was "hypothetically", but we aren't even close to that. I'm done analyzing that game, but if you go back and look at the plays there's a lot more than just Biscuit shitting the bed. You kinda need an o-line to protect you and then when the pass is struggling the coach needs to bail you out by establishing the run. Neither of which happened.

The fact that Biscuit stood there like a man and tried to make chicken salad out of chicken shit and didn't give certain teammates the stink eye after every play or throwing them under the bus in the press conference says a lot about his character. This is going to get figured out and we are going to move on.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:59 am

Let's not pretend that the responses aren't amplified because it was the Packers. I know mine are. It is because it is important to me, after being embarrassed by the Pack for so long. If it was someone like the Falcons or Broncos or Ravens, the responses would be far more muted.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:01 am

I’m well aware the season isn’t over, the Bears are still likely to win more games than they lose. But I’m continuously inching closer and closer to the certainty that Trubisky is never going to be better than about the 20th best quarterback in the league. It sucks, because two better we’re picked right after him, but it’s what we’re stuck with.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:28 am

Richie wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:55 am
See, because I recall VERY recently a team winning the Super Bowl with the literal corpse of Peyton Manning and another getting to the brink of one with Blake Bortles.
and the Bears got to one with Rex Grossman, who then failed on the big stage with a very big assist from an idiot offensive game plan

so yes, one dimensional teams can have success but to have continued success with a ring or 2 requires some comparable effort and results from the other side of the ball


Richie wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:55 am
The bottom line, is that this self-pity act needs to stop. One game, is one game. We're 60 minutes into the season and it's EARLY SEPTEMBER.
I don't see it as self pity ... I see it as angry frustration

we all read Nagy's off season and pre-season statements of progress, and ate it up with a spoon ... so we had every reason to expect an effort we could be proud of in the opening game, at home

can you honestly say you saw any example of progress from that offensive effort? we are all justified in our disgust and justified for venting about it

so if I had gone into the opening game with a blank slate as far as expectations, perhaps I could have dismissed it as an unfortunate loss of a very winnable game ... instead, I went into this game with very high expectations, and that win or lose, the Bears would show what Nagy had been talking about and saw absolutely none of it

is a QB who "has a much improved grasp of the game and playbook" put forth an effort like that? staring down receivers and giving an edge to the defense? no ... he would have been weaned from that type of mistake

and yes, I realize it is only 1 game so no, I am not saying the season is lost already in September ... my anger and disgust was for a terrible beginning ... I didn't expect the Bears offense to look like the Patriots but I do feel I was justified in expecting better effort and results than what was delivered

I won't be angry when they lose to the Broncos in game 2 because I had already expected Fangio to have a very specific and effective game plan waiting to negate the Bears offense ... if the Bears manage a win, I will be happy and pleasantly surprised

but there is something extra about Packer games ... and maybe that is just on me getting so riled up during Packer weeks due to the consistent level of failure the Bears seem to conjure up when they play Green Bay ... so every year I have that new feeling of hope that THIS time is the Bears time ... and unfortunately I am wrong due to my pro Bears self delusion, and that makes it suck that much more when the Packers smugly take care of business and make the Bears look so inadequate
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:53 am

I'm totally with you on this, Boris. On the expectations that were set, and definitely because it was the friggin Packers. With HOW long to prepare?

And that was the plan? Everyone has a plan until they get punched. I'm concerned that Nagy can't take a punch. Remember how Jonathan Quinn was so good in practice with a red jersey on? Kinda like that. That's what is bothering me.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:17 am

I think some people may be overreacting to peoples pretty normal reactions to their team shitting the bed on opening night to your arch nemesis on a national stage. I was riding high on the Bears Hype Train for 8 months. Gobbling up all those delicious tidbits about Nagy 202 and #10 making huge strides. The fall off the Hype Train hurt. Make no mistake, I'll climb my ass back on that Train and scream choo-choo mother fuckers next week, but that initial fall left a scar. It will always be in the back of my mind, kinda soiling the ride a bit.
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:15 pm

I’m just curious if the good news can get magnified in the same way as the bad news.

What I’ve gleaned from various posts is that we should start to consider replacing Biscuit and that Nagy’s offense has been figured out and that we’re totally screwed.

So now what about the opposite?

Leonard Floyd had 2 sacks in the game. Anybody here think he’ll finish the season with 32?
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:22 pm

I could see Floyd breaking the sack record.

Perhaps the biggest thing holding 10 back is that nickname. LOL
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:30 pm

IE wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:22 pm
Perhaps the biggest thing holding 10 back is that nickname. LOL
Agreed!! Guaranteed 400 yard 5 TD performance the week after he gets a respectable nickname. A great nickname pushes it to 500 yard 7 TD. You think Nagy and co would have figured this out by now! :D

Honestly why would you ever say "yeah, Biscuit is fine call me that" Come on Mitch!
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AZ_Bearfan
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Re: A Little Perspective: Week 1's and September in the NFL

Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:40 pm

Look at the facts. In the Tampa game last year Trubisky wore a black sleeve on his throwing arm. Since then, he's done a bunch of colors and it's not working. I vote for mandatory black sleeves for the rest of his career.

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