Bears First Round Draft Choices: A Cornucopia Of Failure

[The Marshall Plan]

With the draft bearing down upon us like the asteroid in Armageddon I felt that a trip down Memory Lane is in order.

We've all been there; probably for years. Sitting on the couch with our favorite drink and a snack watching the first round. Some years it's obvious who should be chosen (*cough* Deshaun Watson *cough*) other years it's a little more complex.

Yet each year, with a couple exceptions, The Think Tank at Halas Hall never fails to deliver at failure. This is just more proof to me that my Deep Bear theory is correct that the draft is not actually done by a qualified NFL level GM, but rather Ted Philips and his unholy red cloaked priesthood of accountants and an Excel randomizer.

Here is a history of our first round draft choices:

2020: None- Mack Trade
2019: None - Mack Trade
2018: Roquan Smith
2017: The Mitch Slap
2016: Leonard Floyd
2015: Kevin White
2014: Kyle Fuller
2013: Kyle Long
2012: Shea McClellin
2011: Gabe Carimi
2010: Cutler Trade
2009: Cutler Trade
2008: Chris Williams
2007: Greg Olsen
2006: Traded to Buffalo
2005: Cedric Benson
2004: Tommie Harris
2003: Michael Haynes
2003: Rex Grossman
2002: Marc Colombo
2001: David Terrell
2000: Brian Urlacher

[video][/video]

[Z Bear]

You could literally do this for just about every team, NFL talent evaluator is a job where you can be considered successful with a 50% hit rate. Look at the Ravens, who are considered one of the better drafting teams in the NFL. Here are their last 20 first round picks. the crosses are pro bowlers.

2003 10 Terrell Suggs †
2003 19 Kyle Boller
2004 — No pick
2005 22 Mark Clayton
2006 12 Haloti Ngata †
2007 29 Ben Grubbs †
2008 18 Joe Flacco
2009 23 Michael Oher
2010 — No pick —
2011 27 Jimmy Smith
2012 — No pick -
2013 32 Matt Elam
2014 17 C. J. Mosley †
2015 26 Breshad Perriman
2017 16 Marlon Humphrey †
2018 25 Hayden Hurst
2018 32 Lamar Jackson †
2019 25 Marquise Brow
2020 28 Patrick Queen

[IE]

I think the Bear hit rate is closer to 30% and that's probably being generous. Olsen was a good pick but didn't really turn good until he left the Bears. Long was good but an older pick who then had little longevity. Same with Tommie. Is it just bad luck picking guys who end up injured? Or is it bad decision-making? If Roquan doesn't have a long Bear career, this list looks mighty ugly.

[Z Bear]

Injuries are bad luck unless it was a reoccurring pre-existing injury from before draft. Columbo, Tommie Harris, Gabe Carimi, and Kevin White were bad luck as they did not have their injuries previously. Chris Williams had back issues in college, so that one is on the Bears. The truly only bad picks are David Terrell, Michael Haynes. Chris Williams, McClellin, and Trubisky.

[The Marshall Plan]

Just in comparing those two teams:

HOF’ers - Actual or Likely To Be Voted In

Bears: Urlacher

Ravens: Suggs, Ngata, Mosley is a four time Pro Bowler.

It’s too early to tell on Lamar Jackson, but at a minimum already he’s a franchise QB that you can build a SB winning team around.

The Bears barely have a bag of sand by comparison.

[Z Bear]

I am sure the Ravens are better, like I said they are considered one of the better drafting teams. If I wanted to pick teams to make the Bears look good I could of selected the Jets, Browns, Lions, and Patriots. I would say the Bears are right about average with their hit rates compared to all 32 teams.

[Yogi da Bear]

Or you could just go back in time to show how good we can be:

1986 27 27 Neal Anderson RB Florida
1985 22 22 William Perry DT Clemson
1984 11 11 Wilber Marshall LB Florida
1983 6 6 Jimbo Covert T Pittsburgh
1983 18 18 Willie Gault WR Tennessee
1982 5 5 Jim McMahon QB Brigham Young
1981 11 11 Keith Van Horne T USC
1980 19 19 Otis Wilson LB Louisville
1979 4 4 Dan Hampton DT Arkansas
1979 9 9 Al Harris DE Arizona State
1977 15 15 Ted Albrecht T California
1976 8 8 Dennis Lick T Wisconsin
1975 4 4 Walter Payton RB Jackson State
1974 4 4 Waymond Bryant LB Tennessee State
1974 20 20 Dave Gallagher DE Michigan
1973 8 8 Wallace Chambers DE Eastern Kentucky
1972 3 3 Lionel Antoine T Southern Illinois
1972 12 12 Craig Clemons DB Iowa
1971 11 11 Joe Moore RB Missouri
1969 14 14 Rufus Mayes T Ohio State
1968 16 16 Mike Hull RB USC
1967 10 10 Loyd Phillips DE Arkansas
1966 12 12 George Rice DT Louisiana State
1965 3 3 Dick Butkus LB Illinois
1965 4 4 Gale Sayers RB Kansas

God I miss the old days.

[Grizzled]

Actually somewhat better 'hit' rate since 2000 even with the monumental disaster that was 2017 (*cough Watson cough*). My 'favorite' was 1970. The Bears and Steelers tied for worst record with 1-13 records. Of course the Bears lost the coin flip for #1 and the Steelers took Terry Bradshaw, who probably would have washed out of Chicago anyway. The Bears then traded the #2 pick to the Pack for Elijah Pitts, a washed up running back and some picks. Total disaster.

[Yogi da Bear]

Yeah, I only went back to '65 because of Butkus and Sayers. How often do you get two players like that in the same round? Could have started in '73 with Chambers or '75 with Walter and the hit rate goes way up. But from '79 thru '86 JEEZUS! Not a miss in the bunch!

[Umbali]

I am not going to devalue the olsen pick just cus we got mike martz who didnt use TEs. Olsen was a great pick that was victimized by our 1930s offensive philosophy

[Z Bear]

Here is an article that explains what I was saying, it lists statistics that prove Pace is an above average drafter.

https://dabearsblog.com/2021/atm-pace-c ... -the-draft

[EricTighe]

Pace has reached in every draft taking athletes over production except Roquan Smith. I will admit I had Daron Payne above Roquan in that draft but was happy to get Roquan.

You have to hit in the first round much better than 2 for 5 when drafting in the top 20. Yes, I am giving him Mack cuz that was a great move.

Lets not forget that of the 3 misses none are still on this team. Take away Mack and he is 1 for 4. I still believe in Roquan.

I am not completely hating on Pace. I believe in his ability to sign Free agents. But he needs to listen to others when it comes to the first rounders if the stories are true. Though he is having issues now Fox wanted Watson. WIth the way Chicago has a history of telling no tales he may not have gotten in trouble in Chicago.