Round 1(20): Davis Mills, QB, Stanford, 6’4”, 217.
Yes, I did it—I took Davis Mills in Round 1 and NOT in a trade down. Yeah, I know. I actually agreed with Pete Prisco. So sue me. I did it for a couple of reasons.
First, I think that my guy, Tevin Jenkins, is going to be gone, probably to Washington right before us. After Jenkins, there’s a whole other cluster of offensive linemen that are all similarly ranked. For example, NFL.Com starts with Sewell and Slater both above 6.7 then there’s a jump to a second tier of four linemen starting at 6.45 with Darrisaw and ending at 6.41 with Jenkins. Then there’s another jump down to 6.31 with Meinerz. There are 24 linemen between 6.31 and 6.10 with Jalen Mayfield before another tier starts at 6.0. In fact, there are 17 linemen between 6.31 and ending with Walker Little at 6.20. What this means is that there is very little differential value after that Jenkins tier between the offensive linemen in that next tier. It doesn’t make sense to then take a lineman in the first when you can get very similar value in the second or even third.
Second, even if Jenkins is still on the board, I’d probably take Mills anyway. Personally, I think he’s the fifth best QB in this draft. I don’t understand how people can scoff at Davis at #20 because of his inexperience, and yet be willing to trade up for Trey Lance who has even less experience (192 to 287 passing attempts, a third fewer). And yes, Lance has talent, but when you watch his game tape, he’s basically playing in a high school offense very similar to what Florida ran with Tim Tebow, but only he was doing it in Division 2. If you watch his actual tape and not his highlights, it’s swing pass right, swing pass left, run him up the middle, WR screen right, WR screen left, run him up the middle, and then maybe throw it long every once in a while. There’s very little reading going on. Hell, in the FCS Championship Game, Lance threw the ball 10 times and ran it 30! I think I’d much rather have a Pro style QB.
Now, I know some of you will say, “but what about Kellen Mond who has all this collegiate experience and can be had in the second round.” Mond isn’t a bad choice and he did improve every year in college, but even with that improvement, Mond’s best completion percentage isn’t as good as Mills’ worst and his best YPAs is only equal to Mills’ worst. That tells me that Mills is throwing the ball longer and completing a higher percentage in his worst year than Mond did in his best. And think about it. Even with all of his experience, Mond’s footwork and technique is crap. It’s why he makes all of those WTF throws. I counted at least six of them during the Senior Bowl. We’ve just gone through four years of trying to teach a physically gifted QB the proper technique. Where did that get us?
Mills’ fundamentals, in contrast, are damn near flawless. They are a prime reason he was voted the #1 recruit in the nation coming out of college. He isn’t some athlete playing QB. He’s a guy who’s obviously been schooled from a very young age the right way to throw a ball. He can make every throw. He can sling it. He can take something off. He can anticipate a pattern and throw it with timing before the cut. He loft it and drop it right in the bread basket. And he’s smart as hell. Yeah, he occasionally makes some curious throws but it’s usually because of rust or a poor read, not because of any glich in his technique. He’s a true QB with some athletic ability whose biggest concerns are his injuries alone. We should draft him and set him on the bench without any hope of seeing the field for a year just to get acclimated. With both Foles and Dalton, we can do that. But after that, watch out.
Round 2: TRADE: #52 (380) and #208(6.6) to New Orleans for #60(300) and #105(84)
Round 2 (60): Aaron Robinson, CB, Central Florida,5’11.5”, 186.
I’m convinced that if you really want a viable corner, this is the place to pick him. With a 4.39 40, Robinson might not have to top end speed of somebody like an Eric Stokes (sub 4.3) or his height, but he certainly has the size on the lean Stokes. He also seems to have the sudden quickness that Stokes seems to struggle with. And he might not have the physical presence of Stokes’ teammate, Tyson Campbell, does, but Robinson has a hectic energy that resulted in far more production than the potential of Campbell did.
I don’t know if Robinson will be here, but I do believe this is the area of draft to get a CB if you desire. From Samuel to Stokes to Campbell to Bossman Fat to Robinson to Melifonwu to even Newsome or Stanford’s Adebo, one of these Top, maybe not elite, but certainly top Corners will be here, even in a trade down. The pickings get pretty slim after the second.
“Be where your feet are.”
Round 3(84): Walker Little, OT, Stanford, 6’7”, 313.
Like Davis Mills was the number one QB recruit coming out of high school, Little was the number one OT recruit coming out. He started as a freshman and turned in an All Pac 10 year as a sophomore. In his last seven starts, he only allowed one pressure. The problem though is that those starts happened two years ago as he tore his ACL in the first game of the 2019 season and opted out of the 2020 season, so nobody really knows how well that knee is going to hold up. And although his 5.23 40 at his Pro Day suggests that he has spent some time getting into decent shape, that time no where reflects his athleticism that he had before his injury.
Preinjury, Little was a tall, athletic left tackle who could mirror well, lock his man up and even put him down with his hand strength and a mean streak. He could pull and get to the second level and overwhelm defenders in the run game. Post injury? Nobody really knows. Because of that and the rather deep tackle class, he should slip to the third round.
Round 3(105—from Round 2 trade down): TRADE AGAIN: #105 (84) and #164 (24.2) to New England for #120 (54) and #122 (50).
Round 4(120—from Trade): Divine Deablo, S, Virginia Tech, 6’3”, 226.
Deablo is one big ass safety, no doubt. But he’s got some high end speed to, running a 4.42 40 at his Pro Day to go with 19 Reps. Sadly, he doesn’t quite have the change of direction that you’d like to see and his Cone time at his Pro day shows that. As a safety, he’s better playing facing the LOS rather than having to turn and mirror.
The guy can hit a ton, but he also has reach to go for a surprising pick or two. He’s a late comer to the safety position, having started at Tech as a WR/Special Teamer. In 2017, he switched to safety and had his first pick. In 2018, he notched 54 tackles. The following year he posted 84, and in the Covid shortened 2020 season, he posted 55. What’s encouraging is in 2020, he was able to accumulate 4 picks. So he became more considerably more consequential with experience.
I foresee a dual role for him. First, he can be the nasty Strong Safety that we so desperately need, moving Eddie back to FS where he belongs eventually. He would be a great goal line safety in this role. But more immediately, I also see him as a big Nickel for us to match up with TEs. He has the size and speed for them. I think it’s critical to get Danny off the field in intermediate passing situations, but with somebody who can also defend the run. And even more immediately, Deablo would be an immediate shot to the arm for our special teams.
Round 4(122—from trade): Jaelon Darden, WR, North Texas, 5’9”, 175.
Darden ran a surprising 4.47 at his Pro Day. Surprising to me at least, for although I didn’t figure that he was as fast as Anthony Schwartz, I thought he seemed much faster than that 4.47 on the field. Not surprisingly, both his cone and short shuttle times were off the charts, further confirming his short area burst and lateral quickness. He also put up 11 reps at only 175 pounds! Having said, I’m just going to cut and paste my analysis of my favorite prospect in this draft from my Senior Bowl Basket.
Somewhere in the bowels of UNT they have a super secret genetics animation lab. They must. How else could they have spliced the genes of Darnell Mooney with those of Mumble from Happy Feet to create the likes of Jaelon Darden. Lol Darden is like a slightly shorter Mooney with even quicker feet. Although small at only 5’9”, which will depress his draft spot, he’s an explosion waiting to happen. He tricks defenders the way I do to my cats with a laser light. He’s so quick, he’ll be dancing on defenders’ graves while breaking their ankles. Most don’t even know what hit them.
Oh, Darden is fast no doubt, but he’s much more than speed. He’s quick. He stops and starts on a dime. He shifts sidewise like a magician disappearing. Bill Cosby once described Gale Sayers as splitting into two, amoeba like. I think Darden splits into three or more. He’s so effective at this that he rarely takes a hard shot. But he doesn’t only use this ability to make defenders miss, he uses it in running his patterns as well. You’ll see him in his pattern make a feint here, a shake there, and suddenly he’s gone, beyond the defender by five yards. He’ll be running his pattern, setting up the defender, and all of a sudden he slides three yards backwards to create separation which is exactly where the ball is coming down. It’s uncanny. It’s how he was able to score 32 TDs over that past two years! Oh, and he returns kicks as well. But this is something you have to see to believe. It’s one of my all time favorite clips. When I watch it, I can’t help but laugh. It just makes me feel good. Enjoy:
“Slow feet don’t eat.”
And if Jaelon isn’t there for us, I wouldn’t mind Wulfy’s guy Simi Fehoko. It makes a certain kind of sense bringing in Mills’ collegiate connection if you take Mills. In fact, I wouldn’t mind a Stanford saturated draft: Mills, CB Adebo, LT Little, and WR Fehoko. We’d increase the IQ points on our exponentially. Lol
Round 6(204): Nick Niemann, ILB, Iowa, 6’3”, 234.
Yeah, I stole this one from Wulfy. I am Yogi da Bear! It’s what I do—steal goodies from other people’s picnic baskets. Lol
The speed is certainly there. He ran a 4.45 40 which is damn near as fast as Deablo, the safety I picked up in the fourth, and his cone is even faster, by a lot. Unfortunately, you don’t really see that on the field where he seems much stiffer than he times. It appears he has to add a lot of strength to his frame, as he doesn’t consistently take on blockers with his hands. There’s a reason he didn’t try the bench at his workout.
Niemann doesn’t seem to play with a whole lot awareness at times. Occasionally, you find him chasing his assignment with back to the QB while the play will run behind him to the area he vacated. He needs to keep his head on a swivel and learn how to slide into his assignment rather than turning and running towards it. Still the speed is there, and that’s half the battle in the NFL.
Niemann is very much a developmental player who might benefit more from playing in our 3-4 with big bodies in front of him to keep blockers away and allow him to use his speed to attack. When he sits back, he gets exposed. But he should be a decent special teamer for us immediately with his size and speed.
Round 6(221 Compensatory): Michael Strachan, WR, Charleston, 6’5”, 228.
Strachan is raw, really raw, but damn he ran a 4.6 40 at 6’5” and put up 20 reps. And his short shuttle and cone are even faster than Anthony Schwartz. The guy is a physical freak. He’s just really raw and the coaching at Charleston didn’t help him much.
Almost all of his routes were just straight down the field. Contrasting this was occasionally a little lackadaisical slant. You don’t see many crossing patterns, digs, outs, posts, even stops or comebacks. Hardly anything. Yet his cone (6.96) and shuttle times (4.36) are outstanding for a guy his size and would suggest he could learn and run those routes effectively. And despite the simplicity of his patterns, Strachan still managed to go for 1007 yards and 8 TDs on 48 receptions in 2018 and 78 receptions for 1319 yards and 19 TDs in 2019! Although Charleston didn’t have a season in 2020, this kind of production was possible because at 6’5” with an 85” wingspan and 4.6 speed, a 35” vertical, and soft hands, he can catch most anything put even close to his hemisphere.
Like his route running, Strachan’s blocking is very raw. Like he himself, it’s very Bahamian—laid back and easy. Rather than completely dominating a defender with his physicality, as he can do and has shown on tape, he seems to prefer to match up with him and seal him off in some kind of dance, as though he was afraid of hurting the guy. And maybe with good reason. In any event, I’ve rarely seen a physical presence like this in the draft with such raw potential.
Round 6(228 compensatory): Michael Brown, OG, West Virginia, 6’3”, 348.
I discovered Brown when somebody on Twitter said that the Bears were looking into him, so I figured why not. I liked what I saw. He’s a true power right guard, something we really haven’t had since Kyle Long. He tested horribly at his Pro Day: 5.61 40, 5.03 shuttle, 8.35 cone, and only 24 reps. Those reps are horrible for a squat lineman like him.
But for some reason, none of this seems to affect him. Despite the lack of arm strength, he always gets push against no matter who it is and how big they are. He’s like a big old bowling ball. I think it’s because of his low center of gravity and all of his strength residing in his legs and ass. If he could develop more upper body strength and a serious punch, he could be downright dangerous.
Also surprisingly, despite his lack of speed and quickness, he absolutely excels at combo blocks and traps, getting to the second level rather effectively. I think it’s because of his awareness. On combos, he seems to have an innate feel when to pull from the double to the second level. And on traps, he quickly identifies his target and is into them before they realize it (basically what a trap is designed to do). This guy is a pounder in the run game and a rock in pass protection.
For those of you concerned about this Picnic Basket, don’t be. The Bears rarely have match up with my choices, and I’ve been doing this a long time. Since I suggested Davis Mills at #20, it’s most probably NOT going to happen. But maybe every once in a while, they should listen to me, like back in 2017. If they had, we’d be a Super Bowl contender right now.
