Justin Fields Megathread - A story of Lovers and Haters

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Rusty Trombagent
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IotaNet wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 4:05 pm
Boris13c wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 3:18 pm I would like for sports reporters to get back to doing just that - reporting ... which means doing a little research and knowing what you're talking about before gracing us with your take ... and for most of them, they do not understand the difference between an editorial, where one is giving their opinion/recommendations about events, and an actual report that provides the actual facts about those events ... which is unfortunate as it ends up limiting the places you can go to get real information not clouded in hazes of speculation
Unfortunately, that not what they get paid for today. There are so many “news” outlets and platforms that it’s all about generating clicks and capturing eyeballs.

As a journalism degree holder, it pains me to no end to have to swim through the cesspool of the internet just to find some responsible writing and reporting. The sad part is that the economics of publishing are pushing respected entities - like Sports Illustrated - out of business.
I'm not TRYING to be argumentative, but the phrase "the economics of publishing" really lets the scourge that is venture capitalism, the death throes of late stage capitalism, off the hook here.
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Boris13c wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 3:18 pm I would like for sports reporters to get back to doing just that - reporting ... which means doing a little research and knowing what you're talking about before gracing us with your take ... and for most of them, they do not understand the difference between an editorial, where one is giving their opinion/recommendations about events, and an actual report that provides the actual facts about those events ... which is unfortunate as it ends up limiting the places you can go to get real information not clouded in hazes of speculation
Unfortunately it's not limited to sports reporting. Nowadays you can't watch a news bulletin over here without the newsreader uttering the words "and now we go across to our <insert subject editor/chief correspondent here>". I'm sure when I was younger they used to just read the news and have reporters give you the basic facts. Nowadays there has to be someone to interpret those facts and tell all us thickies what it means i.e. give us their opinions and speculate on what might happen in the future. It annoys me no end.
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 7:53 pm
Boris13c wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 3:18 pm I would like for sports reporters to get back to doing just that - reporting ... which means doing a little research and knowing what you're talking about before gracing us with your take ... and for most of them, they do not understand the difference between an editorial, where one is giving their opinion/recommendations about events, and an actual report that provides the actual facts about those events ... which is unfortunate as it ends up limiting the places you can go to get real information not clouded in hazes of speculation
Unfortunately it's not limited to sports reporting. Nowadays you can't watch a news bulletin over here without the newsreader uttering the words "and now we go across to our <insert subject editor/chief correspondent here>". I'm sure when I was younger they used to just read the news and have reporters give you the basic facts. Nowadays there has to be someone to interpret those facts and tell all us thickies what it means i.e. give us their opinions and speculate on what might happen in the future. It annoys me no end.
that is true of course, but I intentionally limited my comment to the sports world only
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IotaNet wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 4:05 pm
Boris13c wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 3:18 pm I would like for sports reporters to get back to doing just that - reporting ... which means doing a little research and knowing what you're talking about before gracing us with your take ... and for most of them, they do not understand the difference between an editorial, where one is giving their opinion/recommendations about events, and an actual report that provides the actual facts about those events ... which is unfortunate as it ends up limiting the places you can go to get real information not clouded in hazes of speculation
Unfortunately, that not what they get paid for today. There are so many “news” outlets and platforms that it’s all about generating clicks and capturing eyeballs.

As a journalism degree holder, it pains me to no end to have to swim through the cesspool of the internet just to find some responsible writing and reporting. The sad part is that the economics of publishing are pushing respected entities - like Sports Illustrated - out of business.
I will disagree with you on the Sports Illustrated point ... their demise was their own fault due to firing legitimate reporters/writers and replacing them with unpaid interns, AND publishing AI generated stories and unfortunately for them their AI sucks

greed and arrogance destroyed SI ... they went from the go to publication for sports to something not even worth wiping your ass with
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@Rusty Trombagent and @Boris13c - I think you both miss my point. When I talk about “the economics of publishing,” corporate greed, VC vulture-ism, and overall financial arrogance are part of what I’m talking about. (“Let’s get a bunch of no name amateurs to write for pennies and fire the experienced reporters.”)

I will maintain that the business model of information has become a whole lot more challenging in the internet age, but the move to turn respected publications into bottom of the barrel click-farms (“Content by Taboola!”) is sickening.
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Bottom line tho is no one believes any of this nonsense until it’s verified by a real, paid, professional journalist like Shefty or someone like that. Everything else is just noise. So real journalism still matters, it’s up to the individual to decide what to read and what to ignore.
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Magilla_Gorilla wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2024 4:44 pm
Moriarty wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2024 4:37 pm


From Texas Tech girls softball???

That has to be some amalgamation of all TT sports and then someone arbitrarily awarded their sport that amount, I hope. Unless she's THE star of the team, I can't comprehend any other way to process those numbers.
That is definitely a booster who has taken a special interest in the Softball team if those numbers are correct. Not even scholarship football players at Texas are guaranteed 100k a year from NIL.

With all due respect to Texas Tech softball, they're a bottom of the Big12 program, if their players are making that kind of money they should be recruiting like Oklahoma. Unless of course this is a Livvy Dunne type situation.
Definitely a booster. And it's only for the first season.
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 3:10 pm
G08 wrote: Sat Feb 03, 2024 10:39 pm
"Around the time of the NFL Scouting Combine or so"? I'd be surprised if it was before or during the Combine. Surely Poles and co will wait until after so they can factor in all the extra information they will glean from it?
I'm sure the Combine is important for many guys still, but I'm pretty skeptical when you're talking a prospect the caliber of Williams that the Combine will provide any substantive new info. Even under the most optimistic lense, it's still a job interview that hell prepare for. What did you find and learn about him when he wasn't preparing for a formal interview?
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The numbers below are a big part of why I think we need to move on from Justin. Everyone wants to give him credit for having the mental fortitude necessary to be a QB in Chicago, but does he? I realize none of these numbers are new - but I thought it might be illustrative to compare him to a few contemporaries, including a couple of guys who have been accused of performing below expectations.

2023 Passer Rating:

Jordan Love
4th Quarter - 75.1
Last 2 mins of Half - 65.1
4th Quarter within 7 - 66.3

Trevor Lawrence
4th Quarter - 75.7
Last 2 mins of Half - 74.3
4th Quarter within 7 - 88.2

Bryce Young
4th Quarter - 76.1
Last 2 mins of Half - 64.5
4th Quarter within 7 - 75.0

Justin Fields
4th Quarter - 53.4
Last 2 mins of Half - 24.8
4th Quarter within 7 - 22.3

2022 Passer Rating
Justin Fields
4th Quarter - 61.3
Last 2 mins of Half - 71.6
4th Quarter within 7 - 47.5
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Magilla_Gorilla wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 7:37 pm The numbers below are a big part of why I think we need to move on from Justin. Everyone wants to give him credit for having the mental fortitude necessary to be a QB in Chicago, but does he? I realize none of these numbers are new - but I thought it might be illustrative to compare him to a few contemporaries, including a couple of guys who have been accused of performing below expectations.

2023 Passer Rating:

Jordan Love
4th Quarter - 75.1
Last 2 mins of Half - 65.1
4th Quarter within 7 - 66.3

Trevor Lawrence
4th Quarter - 75.7
Last 2 mins of Half - 74.3
4th Quarter within 7 - 88.2

Bryce Young
4th Quarter - 76.1
Last 2 mins of Half - 64.5
4th Quarter within 7 - 75.0

Justin Fields
4th Quarter - 53.4
Last 2 mins of Half - 24.8
4th Quarter within 7 - 22.3

2022 Passer Rating
Justin Fields
4th Quarter - 61.3
Last 2 mins of Half - 71.6
4th Quarter within 7 - 47.5
It's tough to look at those numbers and not think about context: 2022 was a tank year and he had, arguably, the worst WR corps and OL in the NFL. I remember a game-winning TD drop attributed to Darnell Mooney, for example. There were some back-breaking INTs and fumbles as well, though so IDK
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G08 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 7:49 pm
It's tough to look at those numbers and not think about context: 2022 was a tank year and he had, arguably, the worst WR corps and OL in the NFL. I remember a game-winning TD drop attributed to Darnell Mooney, for example. There were some back-breaking INTs and fumbles as well, though so IDK
I included the 2022 numbers to show that despite the better talent surrounding him he actually regressed this year. Hoge found the same thing when he finished his rewatch/grades.

I included Bryce Young in the comparison because he has a terrible surrounding cast and had his coach and OC not on the same page - and he was a better QB when the games got tighter.

And that’s the problem with Justin - when things got tight he had a real hard time performing at even replacement level. He was bad.
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Magilla_Gorilla wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 7:37 pm The numbers below are a big part of why I think we need to move on from Justin. Everyone wants to give him credit for having the mental fortitude necessary to be a QB in Chicago, but does he? I realize none of these numbers are new - but I thought it might be illustrative to compare him to a few contemporaries, including a couple of guys who have been accused of performing below expectations.

2023 Passer Rating:

Jordan Love
4th Quarter - 75.1
Last 2 mins of Half - 65.1
4th Quarter within 7 - 66.3

Trevor Lawrence
4th Quarter - 75.7
Last 2 mins of Half - 74.3
4th Quarter within 7 - 88.2

Bryce Young
4th Quarter - 76.1
Last 2 mins of Half - 64.5
4th Quarter within 7 - 75.0

Justin Fields
4th Quarter - 53.4
Last 2 mins of Half - 24.8
4th Quarter within 7 - 22.3

2022 Passer Rating
Justin Fields
4th Quarter - 61.3
Last 2 mins of Half - 71.6
4th Quarter within 7 - 47.5
It's not all old. We've talked 4th quarter before, but not these more detailed breakdowns.


The scary part is the massive difference between "4th Qtr" and "4th Qtr Within 7".
"4th Qtr Within 7" is absolutely horrific.
And nobody else has that huge dropoff.
And you can't excuse it with "he had bad players around him". He had the exact same guys around him during "4th Qtr Within 7" that he had around him for "4th Qtr". That explains absolutely nothing.
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I'd like to know the full statline for those 4th Quarter within 7 and Last 2 mins of Half breakdowns (Comp %, Yds, YPA, TDs, INTs, fumbles, Rush Yds, Rush TDs in particular) - my guess is there isn't a lot of data being used for those scenarios, but I don't expect it to look good. I was able to pull stats by quarter not that long ago, but not down to these specific circumstances.
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LacertineForest wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 10:36 am I'd like to know the full statline for those 4th Quarter within 7 and Last 2 mins of Half breakdowns (Comp %, Yds, YPA, TDs, INTs, fumbles, Rush Yds, Rush TDs in particular) - my guess is there isn't a lot of data being used for those scenarios, but I don't expect it to look good. I was able to pull stats by quarter not that long ago, but not down to these specific circumstances.
What in the holy name of hell are you guys doing? Good lord. I'd LOVE to know what JF1's stats look like for Sunday afternoon 4pmET starts, at home, and specifically after the sun has gone down below the horizon of the stadium. But only when we are playing guys wearing green jerseys. And then please cross check that with other QB's whose first initial is a J and last initial is an F, but no Jeremy's please.

Seriously, what do you think you're accomplishing here? Do you think some micro data set with like 4 plays in it is going to blow people away and change hearts and minds?

/end sarcasm.

Seriously, if you want a better feel for the player - go back and rewatch a few of his games after he came back from injury. Why? Because you can watch them again free of the emotion of game day viewing. Watch it in it's entirety, not film breakdowns or cutups, just watch the game so you get full context and are fully removed from the emotion of a game day scenario where we all get worked up about things. You will see things differently when you do - I'm not saying it will change anyone's mind or anything, but I do guarantee you will see things differently FWIW. This stat nerd stuff is ridiculous.
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LacertineForest wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 10:36 am I'd like to know the full statline for those 4th Quarter within 7 and Last 2 mins of Half breakdowns (Comp %, Yds, YPA, TDs, INTs, fumbles, Rush Yds, Rush TDs in particular) - my guess is there isn't a lot of data being used for those scenarios, but I don't expect it to look good. I was able to pull stats by quarter not that long ago, but not down to these specific circumstances.
CBS Sports has all of these situations.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/1 ... ds/splits/

4th quarter is 92 attempts
Last two minutes of half is 50 attempts
4th within 7 is 32 attempts
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dplank wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 11:18 am
LacertineForest wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 10:36 am I'd like to know the full statline for those 4th Quarter within 7 and Last 2 mins of Half breakdowns (Comp %, Yds, YPA, TDs, INTs, fumbles, Rush Yds, Rush TDs in particular) - my guess is there isn't a lot of data being used for those scenarios, but I don't expect it to look good. I was able to pull stats by quarter not that long ago, but not down to these specific circumstances.
What in the holy name of hell are you guys doing? Good lord. I'd LOVE to know what JF1's stats look like for Sunday afternoon 4pmET starts, at home, and specifically after the sun has gone down below the horizon of the stadium. But only when we are playing guys wearing green jerseys. And then please cross check that with other QB's whose first initial is a J and last initial is an F, but no Jeremy's please.

Seriously, what do you think you're accomplishing here? Do you think some micro data set with like 4 plays in it is going to blow people away and change hearts and minds?

/end sarcasm.

Seriously, if you want a better feel for the player - go back and rewatch a few of his games after he came back from injury. Why? Because you can watch them again free of the emotion of game day viewing. Watch it in it's entirety, not film breakdowns or cutups, just watch the game so you get full context and are fully removed from the emotion of a game day scenario where we all get worked up about things. You will see things differently when you do - I'm not saying it will change anyone's mind or anything, but I do guarantee you will see things differently FWIW. This stat nerd stuff is ridiculous.
I wasn't trying to say I'm going to pore over situational stats - I was trying to say I'm skeptical that there's enough data from those situations to really draw any conclusions. He threw just 50 passes in the last two minutes of the half and 32 in the 4th quarter trailing by 7. It is pretty amazing that the TD:INT ratio there is 1:9, but that doesn't factor out stuff like Hail Marys and it makes sense to see more turnovers as the game draws to a close and he had to take more risks to stay alive.
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dplank wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 11:10 am
not sure which way Clay Harbor meant his tweet comment ... come after him as in try to trade for him? or come after him as he insulted the Bears in some way?

but I liked what Kittle said, probably because it is what I have been saying myself for a while now, but now actual players are expressing the same sentiments of Fields capability to become "The Guy" if he gets an upgrade of the offense around him both in player talent and coaching

I want to see Field's operate within an offense designed for him for the next 2 seasons as the offense is built ... and I want to see that with him as QB1 of the Bears rather than QB1 of a different team coming to town to beat the Bears
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Ditka’s dictaphone wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 1:50 pm Fields won’t want to miss his preferred landing spot either, once Poles decides what he’s doing.
Landing spot?

He has one already you silly goose!

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The Marshall Plan wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 5:08 pm
Ditka’s dictaphone wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 1:50 pm Fields won’t want to miss his preferred landing spot either, once Poles decides what he’s doing.
Landing spot?

He has one already you silly goose!

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Justin Fields on the Move? Falcons, Raiders, and Commanders Realistic Trade Destinations for the Bears QB

Franchise quarterbacks are gold in the NFL. Without one, you’re swimming upstream to win at a high level. It’s rare that these type of players become available, but with Justin Fields potentially on the market due to the Chicago Bears owning the top overall pick, we could see a team elevate from pretender to contender in short order.

In an effort to determine which teams are most in need of help at the quarterback position, I took the sum of team rankings in a handful of stats from 2023. Let’s take a look at the betting favorites when it comes to landing Fields, their standing in the “Soppe Need Metric,” and Fields’ fit should he take his talents to that specific city.

The idea of holding Fields means that Chicago is likely to move the No. 1 pick, something that would land them plenty of ammo to build a winner around their 24-year-old signal-caller.

From Weeks 9-18, the Bears went 5-4 with each of those losses by a single possession. Chicago may not be too far away from fielding a playoff team, and making a change at the most important position in the game is a risky idea unless they have intel that they can get a king’s ransom (or if they have that high of a grade on Caleb Williams).

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continued..

"Atlanta Falcons (+140)
QB Need Ranking: 7
The Falcons have spent the past three seasons building up their offensive firepower, and this might be their chance to land a trigger man who can maximize the raw talent they have on their roster.

A change to the offensive play-calling only makes this scenario more likely. The roster construction lines up nicely for adding a player like Fields, and so does the state of the NFC South (divisional point differential in 2023: -134 points).

Adding Fields could put Atlanta atop this division for years to come. But is the new coaching staff comfortable enough in the depth of this roster to sacrifice the assets that it’ll require to make this gamble?"

Las Vegas Raiders (+450)
QB Need Ranking: 6
Do I like the idea of Fields being given a pair of supersized playmakers like Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers? Of course, I do! That would be the best way to help develop him as a passer in a hurry.

However, this feels like a longer shot than the odds board suggests. Not only do the Raiders have Aidan O’Connell (2023 fourth-round pick) entering Year 2 after a reasonably strong finish to his rookie season, but they also have to be realistic about their window.

Las Vegas’ path to success in the AFC West is likely more than a quarterback away, making them, in my opinion, more likely to build their roster depth before investing at the position. Fantasy managers want this trade to happen — it’s not one that I’m betting on.

Seattle Seahawks (+750)
QB Need Ranking: 9
Geno Smith is coming off of a season of regression, but with him cashing eight-figure checks for each of the next two seasons, bringing in Fields seems like a long shot.

That said, this is a ready-made offense for a gamebreaker like Fields. And with a defensive mind in Mike Macdonald taking over for Pete Carroll, could Seattle look to load up on firepower and hope that talent wins out?

The San Francisco 49ers aren’t going anywhere, but the NFC as a whole has room for some middling teams to elevate. The ‘Hawks could be an upgrade at under center away from taking advantage.

Denver Broncos (+1600)
QB Need Ranking: 8
The Broncos are in need of a quarterback and have some interesting pieces on the offensive side of things. But like the Raiders, Fields is not enough to greatly impact their standing in the AFC West.

Fields is about the furthest thing from Drew Brees, so I’m not tempted to think that Sean Payton is ready to sell the future in this specific situation. Denver has missed the playoffs in eight straight seasons, but after a 2023 offseason that saw them send out money hand-over-fist, a second straight aggressive offseason doesn’t seem too likely.
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Teams with QB needs heading into the 2024 season:

WASHINGTON
NEW ENGLAND
ATLANTA
MINNESOTA
LAS VEGAS
SEATTLE
DENVER
NEW ORLEANS
PITTSBURGH
TAMPA BAY

Free Agent QBs:
Kirk Cousins
Baker Mayfield
Jameis Winston
Gardner Minshew
Ryan Tannehill (washed?)
Jacoby Brissett (stop gap?)


I see maybe 2 free agents who could be solid starters (Cousins and Mayfield), so let's cross Minnesota and Tampa Bay off the list.

WASHINGTON
NEW ENGLAND
ATLANTA
LAS VEGAS
SEATTLE
DENVER
NEW ORLEANS
PITTSBURGH


Washington likely will be drafting Drake Maye and one of New England/Atlanta/Las Vegas will be drafting Jayden Daniels (unless a medical concern pops up, etc). So that leaves 6 teams looking for a QB with the following available in the draft:

Michael Penix, Jr.
JJ McCarthy
Bo Nix

Now we're down to 3 teams who might be left holding the proverbial bag, I think one of those will be the ones who ponies up draft picks for Justin Fields. If I had to guess, maybe Atlanta trades us #43 and #110 and takes a defensive player at #8.

Las Vegas could do #44 and #113

Seattle and Denver don't have second round picks

New Orleans could do #45 but they have no third or fourth round picks

Pittsburgh could do #51 and #120


If we push hard enough I'm curious if we could get #20 from Pittsburgh, or we do something like trade Justin Fields and a future 4th for #20 overall...
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G08 wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 9:03 pm Teams with QB needs heading into the 2024 season:

WASHINGTON
NEW ENGLAND
ATLANTA
MINNESOTA
LAS VEGAS
SEATTLE
DENVER
NEW ORLEANS
PITTSBURGH
TAMPA BAY

Free Agent QBs:
Kirk Cousins
Baker Mayfield
Jameis Winston
Gardner Minshew
Ryan Tannehill (washed?)
Jacoby Brissett (stop gap?)


I see maybe 2 free agents who could be solid starters (Cousins and Mayfield), so let's cross Minnesota and Tampa Bay off the list.

WASHINGTON
NEW ENGLAND
ATLANTA
LAS VEGAS
SEATTLE
DENVER
NEW ORLEANS
PITTSBURGH


Washington likely will be drafting Drake Maye and one of New England/Atlanta/Las Vegas will be drafting Jayden Daniels (unless a medical concern pops up, etc). So that leaves 6 teams looking for a QB with the following available in the draft:

Michael Penix, Jr.
JJ McCarthy
Bo Nix

Now we're down to 3 teams who might be left holding the proverbial bag, I think one of those will be the ones who ponies up draft picks for Justin Fields. If I had to guess, maybe Atlanta trades us #43 and #110 and takes a defensive player at #8.

Las Vegas could do #44 and #113

Seattle and Denver don't have second round picks

New Orleans could do #45 but they have no third or fourth round picks

Pittsburgh could do #51 and #120


If we push hard enough I'm curious if we could get #20 from Pittsburgh, or we do something like trade Justin Fields and a future 4th for #20 overall...
Or Washington could trade up to 1 and take Williams while the Bears hold onto Fields for another year.
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wab wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 9:25 pm
G08 wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 9:03 pm Teams with QB needs heading into the 2024 season:

WASHINGTON
NEW ENGLAND
ATLANTA
MINNESOTA
LAS VEGAS
SEATTLE
DENVER
NEW ORLEANS
PITTSBURGH
TAMPA BAY

Free Agent QBs:
Kirk Cousins
Baker Mayfield
Jameis Winston
Gardner Minshew
Ryan Tannehill (washed?)
Jacoby Brissett (stop gap?)


I see maybe 2 free agents who could be solid starters (Cousins and Mayfield), so let's cross Minnesota and Tampa Bay off the list.

WASHINGTON
NEW ENGLAND
ATLANTA
LAS VEGAS
SEATTLE
DENVER
NEW ORLEANS
PITTSBURGH


Washington likely will be drafting Drake Maye and one of New England/Atlanta/Las Vegas will be drafting Jayden Daniels (unless a medical concern pops up, etc). So that leaves 6 teams looking for a QB with the following available in the draft:

Michael Penix, Jr.
JJ McCarthy
Bo Nix

Now we're down to 3 teams who might be left holding the proverbial bag, I think one of those will be the ones who ponies up draft picks for Justin Fields. If I had to guess, maybe Atlanta trades us #43 and #110 and takes a defensive player at #8.

Las Vegas could do #44 and #113

Seattle and Denver don't have second round picks

New Orleans could do #45 but they have no third or fourth round picks

Pittsburgh could do #51 and #120


If we push hard enough I'm curious if we could get #20 from Pittsburgh, or we do something like trade Justin Fields and a future 4th for #20 overall...
Or Washington could trade up to 1 and take Williams while the Bears hold onto Fields for another year.
True, but I think we both know that isn't happening.
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN 33 SEASONS

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The Marshall Plan
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G08 wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 9:03 pm If we push hard enough I'm curious if we could get #20 from Pittsburgh, or we do something like trade Justin Fields and a future 4th for #20 overall...
I'm going to remember this in Discord in a few months.

Trade JF1?

Tsk tsk.
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G08 wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:37 am
Fuck, wish I hadnt seen that. TMP almost had me convinced we should trade the pick but now I'm locked in on Caleb.
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I want this thread to get to 200 pages - but not like this! Noooooooo
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