Justin Fields Megathread - A story of Lovers and Haters

[malk]

Mate, with respect, there is some terrible STEM brain going on here. You cannot have equal circumstances in the NFL, it isn't a lab. Also knowledge isn't predicated on certainty and neither are truth conditions. If you want to abstract the discussion here to an academic level it would need to be a social science (though not poor, broken, pretend STEM econ).

The proposition was fairly simple to analyse, that Lawrence has more talent and is far more advanced as a passer at the current juncture to Fields. Now there is fruitful discussion around that but pedantry around the language and reference to the scientific method is actually making a category error about the nature of the dispute.

Without realizing it, you are making the exact same point that I was making. Claiming that is a FACT that Lawrence is more advanced as a passer than Fields is not possible. For exactly the reasons I stated and you just re stated, there is no exact circumstance to allow for that.

So when I see people post passing numbers as proof, without the obvious subtext that one guy threw the twice as much as the other and claiming it’s just a fact, I’m gonna call bullshit on that “fact”. I’m not the one who made this error claiming fact, I’m the one who pointed it out just as you have. Big difference.

Your response could have been simplified to a simple “I agree dplank”. Because you just said the exact same thing using slightly different words.

The error you're making is assuming that "fact" in this, i.e. message board colloquial, context means the same as it would in a peer reviewed paper. I can't know others' minds but it seems reasonable to me, on a good faith interpretation and in the interest of having a nominally fun discussion, that it means something more akin to "strongly believe to be correct" or "would widely be interpreted as correct".

I mean, I don't really care but the beef detracts rather than adds to the discussion and, cards on table, I sat through too many tutorials and seminars where hours were wasted arguing pointless semantics rather than the substantive points and it's a real bugbear of mine!

[IE]

Without realizing it, you are making the exact same point that I was making. Claiming that is a FACT that Lawrence is more advanced as a passer than Fields is not possible. For exactly the reasons I stated and you just re stated, there is no exact circumstance to allow for that.

So when I see people post passing numbers as proof, without the obvious subtext that one guy threw the twice as much as the other and claiming it’s just a fact, I’m gonna call bullshit on that “fact”. I’m not the one who made this error claiming fact, I’m the one who pointed it out just as you have. Big difference.

Your response could have been simplified to a simple “I agree dplank”. Because you just said the exact same thing using slightly different words.

The error you're making is assuming that "fact" in this, i.e. message board colloquial, context means the same as it would in a peer reviewed paper. I can't know others' minds but it seems reasonable to me, on a good faith interpretation and in the interest of having a nominally fun discussion, that it means something more akin to "strongly believe to be correct" or "would widely be interpreted as correct".

I mean, I don't really care but the beef detracts rather than adds to the discussion and, cards on table, I sat through too many tutorials and seminars where hours were wasted arguing pointless semantics rather than the substantive points and it's a real bugbear of mine!

I don't think the sticking point is the word "fact" as much as it is "advanced". Substitute "successful" with "advanced", and it fits. Lawrence is more successful at this point, even though in examples of performance JF1 has shown he can make all the throws and could be AS advanced a skill set as Lawrence all other things being equal.

Clearly the point about supporting cast is meaningful. Or nobody would be calling for JF1 to get more weapons - they'd just be judging what he has shown himself able to do with what he has. And Jax woudn't have spent big dollars on Kirk and brought in Evan Engram and others if they wouldn't have any influence over his success. Of course they do. That's why in disparate situations you have to isolate and judge players sometimes on examples of what they've been able to show/demonstrate skill-wise, versus what one might accumulate statistically with a stronger cast.

In examples, JF1 is as advanced. In accumulated stats Trevor is more successful. They're different things.

[AZ_Bearfan]

[Yogi da Bear]

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[dplank]

damn i just realized the QB from Waterboy was also the stoner guy in Grandma's Boy and in several other of Sandlers movies like Little Nicky

[HisRoyalSweetness]

A good article about the way forward for Justin Fields and the Bears passing offense:

Justin Fields must improve — but ‘it’s not just the QB on dropback passes’

Bears general manager Ryan Poles was right in saying quarterback Justin Fields “needs to get better as a passer” on Tuesday — but doing so requires help from Bears teammates and his coaches.
...

Both Fields and his teammates need to improve. Fields can work on his own this offseason and throw with Bears players off-campus to get better. Poles, meanwhile, can give the franchise the talent infusion it so desperately needs.

Fields threw 71.5% of his passes on target in 2022, per Pro Football Reference, the sixth-worst mark among regular starters. His receivers and offensive linemen were both graded last in the NFL by Pro Football Focus, too. The result was the NFL’s worst passing attack by a wide margin — a fear realized after Poles declined to add star power at receiver and offensive line during his first preseason in charge.
...

Bears coaches were scheduled to spend the rest of the week in meetings breaking down specific areas in which their team had to improve. But long before Poles made clear that Fields needed to improve through the air, Bears coaches detailed how they wanted him to improve the following:

• Rhythm and timing. Head coach Matt Eberflus said Fields needed to focus on “rhythm and timing.” It’s nuanced, Getsy said last week, and not limited to the quarterback.

“In the passing game, that’s all we really talk about, is, timing and rhythm,” Getsy said. “Receivers have got to be where they’re supposed to be, when they’re supposed to be there. The quarterback’s feet have to match the progression of the play. So all that stuff is really important for us to go through.”

• Footwork. Getsy and quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko worked to transform Fields’ footwork in their first season together, starting with the way Fields took the snap. In the shotgun, Fields put his left foot forward this season. Under Nagy, it was his right foot. Changing it helped sync up Fields’ timing with that of his receivers.

The Bears view Fields’ footwork as a work-in-progress — but claim that can be said about any quarterback.

“I don’t know that you ever conquer something like that,” Janocko said last week. “I think that’s going to be an ever-evolving thing. If you watch [Buccaneers quarterback Tom] Brady and all those guys, I think they’re always continually working on their footwork.”

• Familiarity. Fields will have plenty of new teammates, but he knows what to expect from the playbook, coaches and culture at Halas Hall. At this time a year ago, he didn’t know what either would look like — the Bears fired head coach Matt Nagy and GM Ryan Pace on Jan. 10, 2022.

“As we go into next year, now he’s had this experience, he’s had his opportunities to get more comfortable with the communication of the system, hopefully get more comfortable with the people around him,” Getsy said. “All that stuff. Any time you can get that cohesiveness of the unit together, and knowing what the culture looks like and he’s the leader of that culture, I think all that stuff is promising stuff.”
...

Full article: https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2023 ... oles-draft

[EricTighe]

Rhythm and timing. Head coach Matt Eberflus said Fields needed to focus on “rhythm and timing.” It’s nuanced, Getsy said last week, and not limited to the quarterback.

This is a double edge sword. Great to say we need rhythm and timing when we all know a great pass rush disrupts that. So the worst O-line in the league, WR's who take time to get open.
Kinda hard to put blame on any one person for rhythm and timing. Not making an excuse for Fields but we have to give the kid more time. Then you can make a fairer assessment of him.

The one thing every team says about beating a great QB is to disrupt his rhythm with a great pass rush. Our problem is even an average pass rush looks great against our line.

[IE]

Rhythm and timing. Head coach Matt Eberflus said Fields needed to focus on “rhythm and timing.” It’s nuanced, Getsy said last week, and not limited to the quarterback.

This is a double edge sword. Great to say we need rhythm and timing when we all know a great pass rush disrupts that. So the worst O-line in the league, WR's who take time to get open.
Kinda hard to put blame on any one person for rhythm and timing. Not making an excuse for Fields but we have to give the kid more time. Then you can make a fairer assessment of him.

The one thing every team says about beating a great QB is to disrupt his rhythm with a great pass rush. Our problem is even an average pass rush looks great against our line.

When you say "our line", what are you referring to? The guys who were playing on the Oline for the Bears will be different next year - new guys, more experience, more health, more depth, and more experience in the system and a good offensive coach who should be getting better seal legs as well as the QB.

So much will be different it seems strange to me to comment as if the team from '22 in the complete context of injuries and one-year stopgaps and everything else will be trotted out again in '23.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

From Marc Sessler's article on nfl.com

NFL QB Index: Ranking all 32 teams' primary starting quarterbacks at the end of the 2022 regular season

13. Justin Fields

Crafting this list weekly, I took note of the tweets I received slamming the rise of Fields. As he crept up the chart -- into the top 10 when a rash of starters were yanked due to injury -- plenty of fans came rushing in to announce Chicago’s lead man as a half-baked entity. "Yes, he’s a nightmare as a runner, but the guy can’t make it as a pocket passer!" The player I watched turns that critique into rubbish. He has plenty of room to grow, but Fields absolutely evolved through the air in his second season. Armed with the first overall pick and the most cap space league-wide, Chicago must plant weapons around a player who did the improbable: He made a Bears offense interesting.

Full article: https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-index-r ... -end-of-th

Other notable rankings:

2021 Draft Class:
6. Trevor Lawrence
26. Mac Jones
32. Zach Wilson
Unrated: Trey Lance (Brock Purdy is listed as the 49ers QB and is ranked 15)

Oh, and this:
14. Aaron Rodgers

Obviously it's one guy's list, but if you'd asked us before the season if we'd have taken Fields in Year Two being ranked in the top half of the league, way above all the other QBs in his draft class except Lawrence and ahead of Rodgers I think we'd have all taken that.

[EricTighe]

Rhythm and timing. Head coach Matt Eberflus said Fields needed to focus on “rhythm and timing.” It’s nuanced, Getsy said last week, and not limited to the quarterback.

This is a double edge sword. Great to say we need rhythm and timing when we all know a great pass rush disrupts that. So the worst O-line in the league, WR's who take time to get open.
Kinda hard to put blame on any one person for rhythm and timing. Not making an excuse for Fields but we have to give the kid more time. Then you can make a fairer assessment of him.

The one thing every team says about beating a great QB is to disrupt his rhythm with a great pass rush. Our problem is even an average pass rush looks great against our line.

When you say "our line", what are you referring to? The guys who were playing on the Oline for the Bears will be different next year - new guys, more experience, more health, more depth, and more experience in the system and a good offensive coach who should be getting better seal legs as well as the QB.

So much will be different it seems strange to me to comment as if the team from '22 in the complete context of injuries and one-year stopgaps and everything else will be trotted out again in '23.

Not sure where you got that but if I stated it wrong my bad.
Eberflus was talking about what Fields needs to work on. I was saying you can't blame the kid solely for that when the line sucked this year. The entire context is about this year. Opps this past year 2022 and a few games at the beginning of 2023. Hope that clears it up.

[dplank]

Trevor Lawrence having an all time bad playoff start lol. 3 picks in his first quarter of postseason ball - yikes. He’s a cool kid so I expect him to bounce back

[Rusty Trombagent]

Trev's making me look bad.
If anyone can inexplicably lose this though, it's the chargers.

[dplank]

Trev's making me look bad.
If anyone can inexplicably lose this though, it's the chargers.

OMG 4 picks now….I jinxed it I was rooting for Jax

[Rusty Trombagent]

we got a real Cutler/Deangelo Hall situation here

[dplank]

Only down 2, Chargers are such massive chokers lmao

[RichH55]

Trevor Lawrence having an all time bad playoff start lol. 3 picks in his first quarter of postseason ball - yikes. He’s a cool kid so I expect him to bounce back

This aged.....poorly

[Rusty Trombagent]

Trev's making me look bad.
If anyone can inexplicably lose this though, it's the chargers.

[dplank]

Trev's making me look bad.
If anyone can inexplicably lose this though, it's the chargers.

You called it!!

[IE]

When you say "our line", what are you referring to? The guys who were playing on the Oline for the Bears will be different next year - new guys, more experience, more health, more depth, and more experience in the system and a good offensive coach who should be getting better seal legs as well as the QB.

So much will be different it seems strange to me to comment as if the team from '22 in the complete context of injuries and one-year stopgaps and everything else will be trotted out again in '23.

Not sure where you got that but if I stated it wrong my bad.
Eberflus was talking about what Fields needs to work on. I was saying you can't blame the kid solely for that when the line sucked this year. The entire context is about this year. Opps this past year 2022 and a few games at the beginning of 2023. Hope that clears it up.

Eh.... no it's my bad. For some reason I read that as you were saying the Oline WILL be bad - but you were saying that about this past season. Which I can agree it ended up effectively being pretty bad due to injuries and lack of continuity.

[IE]

I like Trevor a lot. I think both he and JF1 are pretty cool customers. I think Trev has much better weapons and Oline - and to me that's about the only difference in their current status (although JF1's legs make him even a bigger threat).

I feel bad for Herbert. He really only has Ekeler and the Ghost of Keenan Allen. They committed to Mike Williams but the guy is never there when they need him.

It seemed like a big upset... but then I went back and looked at who the Chargers beat this past season... and holy crap they had a 10-game season of bum-slaying and only beat one good team (Miami).

[Rusty Trombagent]

I feel bad for Herbert. He really only has Ekeler and the Ghost of Keenan Allen. They committed to Mike Williams but the guy is never there when they need him.

Yeah, Justin really does cover up a lot of warts on that roster. The Fire Tom Telesco train has been gaining a bunch of momentum lately for this reason, and if you have to fire someone after a loss like that I'm hoping it's him over Staley.

[Grizzled]

The Bears led the NFL with eight runs of 40 or more yards and were tied for second with 20 carries of 20 or more yards. Many of those were designed runs for Fields or plays he created:

40+ Runs and League Standing
2022: 8 (1)
2021: 1 (T-15)
2020: 3 (T-7)
2019: 2 (T-14)

20+ Runs and League Standing
2022: 20 (T-2)
2021: 13 (T-7)
2020: 8 (T-22)
2020: 8 (T-22)

40+ Passes and League Standing
2022: 7 (T-17)
2021: 7 (T-21)
2020: 3 (T-31)
2019: 2 (32)

20+ Passes and League Standing
2022: 37 (30)
2021: 40 (29)
2020: 42 (25)
2019: 39 (29)

Fields was involved in eight touchdowns of 25 or more yards, something the entire team Bears had 11 over the previous three seasons combined.
Can't wait to see what the offense does with better OL and WR.

[Grizzled]

On the Waddle and Silvy show yesterday, Kiper said that JF is better than any QB in this year.'s draft.

[dplank]

On the Waddle and Silvy show yesterday, Kiper said that JF is better than any QB in this year.'s draft.

Yep, truly astonishing to me that there are still major doubters on this board after what we saw in 2022. Most games, not just some but MOST - Fields was the best player on the football field. Just out there making shit happen with no help at all, big plays every week that were so outrageous they made you wanna slap your mamma. His improvement across the board was so dramatic I really don’t see much chance that his passing numbers don't skyrocket next year with the expected improvement surrounding him.

[IE]

On the Waddle and Silvy show yesterday, Kiper said that JF is better than any QB in this year.'s draft.

IMO he's the best QB since Burrow. Trevor is getting onto the list there but I don't think quite as good as JF1 (he just has much better supporting cast). Then going down the list I'll say JF1 is about equal with Herbert and Hurts. Then we'd go down to Allen and then Mahomes (and we'll probably put Watson back on that list in '23). Honorable mention to Minshew and Purdy for being closer to the top of that "last 5 years" list than bottom. IMO only Mahomes and Burrow are clearly better than JF1 on the entire list, and if JF1 had the supporting cast of most of these other guys he'd still be playing.

I'm really loving me some Burrow these days. He and Mahomes, IMO, are the greatest matchup since Brady/Manning in their prime.

[Grizzled]

On the Waddle and Silvy show yesterday, Kiper said that JF is better than any QB in this year.'s draft.

IMO he's the best QB since Burrow. Trevor is getting onto the list there but I don't think quite as good as JF1 (he just has much better supporting cast). Then going down the list I'll say JF1 is about equal with Herbert and Hurts. Then we'd go down to Allen and then Mahomes (and we'll probably put Watson back on that list in '23). Honorable mention to Minshew and Purdy for being closer to the top of that "last 5 years" list than bottom. IMO only Mahomes and Burrow are clearly better than JF1 on the entire list, and if JF1 had the supporting cast of most of these other guys he'd still be playing.

I'm really loving me some Burrow these days. He and Mahomes, IMO, are the greatest matchup since Brady/Manning in their prime.

I won't disagree with that assessment. The clock is ticking on him being on a rookie contract. I don't expect enough holes filled this offseason for them to compete for a Super Bowl but Poles better bring in some strong offensive talent, more than bargain basement prove-it guys and the training wheels taken off.

[The Marshall Plan]

On the Waddle and Silvy show yesterday, Kiper said that JF is better than any QB in this year.'s draft.

IMO he's the best QB since Burrow. Trevor is getting onto the list there but I don't think quite as good as JF1 (he just has much better supporting cast). Then going down the list I'll say JF1 is about equal with Herbert and Hurts. Then we'd go down to Allen and then Mahomes (and we'll probably put Watson back on that list in '23). Honorable mention to Minshew and Purdy for being closer to the top of that "last 5 years" list than bottom. IMO only Mahomes and Burrow are clearly better than JF1 on the entire list, and if JF1 had the supporting cast of most of these other guys he'd still be playing.

I'm really loving me some Burrow these days. He and Mahomes, IMO, are the greatest matchup since Brady/Manning in their prime.

There are only two QBs right now that I'd rather have than JF1.

Mahomes and Burrow. Like you said about Brady / Manning going up against each other. We're in the early years of a rivalry there that has another decade to go. Great time to be a football fan.

With all the attention Brock Purdy is getting. OK fine. Give JF1 guys like Deebo, CMC, Trent Williams and then the #3 overall defense based on yardage and all the advantages that gives an offense.

Jalen Hurts has the #1 defense supporting him. Put him on the Bears and let's talk.

JF1 has worked miracles. Making chicken salad out of chicken shit every week.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Lots of smoke about Bears trading Fields and taking Bryce Young.

Ramp up the draft rumours, get a haul for #1 pick.

Fields is going nowhere

[dplank]

IMO he's the best QB since Burrow. Trevor is getting onto the list there but I don't think quite as good as JF1 (he just has much better supporting cast). Then going down the list I'll say JF1 is about equal with Herbert and Hurts. Then we'd go down to Allen and then Mahomes (and we'll probably put Watson back on that list in '23). Honorable mention to Minshew and Purdy for being closer to the top of that "last 5 years" list than bottom. IMO only Mahomes and Burrow are clearly better than JF1 on the entire list, and if JF1 had the supporting cast of most of these other guys he'd still be playing.

I'm really loving me some Burrow these days. He and Mahomes, IMO, are the greatest matchup since Brady/Manning in their prime.

There are only two QBs right now that I'd rather have than JF1.

Mahomes and Burrow. Like you said about Brady / Manning going up against each other. We're in the early years of a rivalry there that has another decade to go. Great time to be a football fan.

With all the attention Brock Purdy is getting. OK fine. Give JF1 guys like Deebo, CMC, Trent Williams and then the #3 overall defense based on yardage and all the advantages that gives an offense.

Jalen Hurts has the #1 defense supporting him. Put him on the Bears and let's talk.

JF1 has worked miracles. Making chicken salad out of chicken shit every week.

Hurts also has Brown, D. Smith, and Goedert - all 3 would be the top weapon here. He has all 3 of them. And a great defense. I love Hurts but no chance he has anywhere close to his stats if placed on the 2022 Bears.

Side note: I wonder how many folks here would pass on the Brown trade if we already had drafted D. Smith with a high first the year prior? I suspect we’d here a bunch of “we are set at WR” and “you can’t overspend at one position” and “if Fields can’t get it done with Smith and Kmet he’s the wrong guy, look at Tom Brady” type comments.

[RichH55]

There are only two QBs right now that I'd rather have than JF1.

Mahomes and Burrow. Like you said about Brady / Manning going up against each other. We're in the early years of a rivalry there that has another decade to go. Great time to be a football fan.

With all the attention Brock Purdy is getting. OK fine. Give JF1 guys like Deebo, CMC, Trent Williams and then the #3 overall defense based on yardage and all the advantages that gives an offense.

Jalen Hurts has the #1 defense supporting him. Put him on the Bears and let's talk.

JF1 has worked miracles. Making chicken salad out of chicken shit every week.

Hurts also has Brown, D. Smith, and Goedert - all 3 would be the top weapon here. He has all 3 of them. And a great defense. I love Hurts but no chance he has anywhere close to his stats if placed on the 2022 Bears.

Side note: I wonder how many folks here would pass on the Brown trade if we already had drafted D. Smith with a high first the year prior? I suspect we’d here a bunch of “we are set at WR” and “you can’t overspend at one position” and “if Fields can’t get it done with Smith and Kmet he’s the wrong guy, look at Tom Brady” type comments.

We have people who would have traded pick #1 for DK Metcalf. Cmon.

This is basically just a false post. Any even mild - maybe in the neighborhood - of criticism for Fields is met with the apologists - Well if only we had 3 great weapons (and Goedert and Kmet aren't that far off in my view - but of course - We have to devalue anything around Fields for the apologist camp)

And Fields looked good! He can be a better Lamar Jackson - that is certainly not a nothing.

But "Miracles"

Nonsense.