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2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2021 9:08 am
by Moriarty
Now that the roster is more or less set, it's time for my annual not-overly-welcome observation about the Bears' salary
cap situation.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=13482 (2019, looking at 2020)
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=14510&hilit=salary+cap (2020, looking at 2021)
As you may not remember, I previously pointed out tough times coming for the Bears in 2020/2021 financially. The Bears dealt with it in 2021 in large part by cutting Fuller, Leno, and Massie 1 year before their contracts expired. As such, they got zilch for them. No trade, no comp picks, nothing. And significant dead money, still.
Their dollar store replacement for Fuller (Trufant) is already gone and they're riding with either an inexperienced R5 shorty (Vildor) or another minimum wage reclamation project (Burns) as a starter (and NB isn't very settled, either).
And their cheap 'As Is, No Returns' LT solution is on IR, with a 40yo (almost) minimum stopgap as the Plan B.
2022's financial outlook is...not really better.
I'm expecting fewer outright cuts, but some meaningful UFAs who won't be back.
Blank spaces under year indicate players that are FAs (or draft picks). I projected them returning and made my best guess at an amount. Most are very low salary anyway, with minimal room for variance.
If year is populated that means they are under contract and their
cap number is exact.
I threw in some projected draft picks and pretty close approximations of what they cost.
Position group totals are in the upper right of each group.
It's (obviously) not meant to be an exact blueprint of the future, but something reasonably close that gives you a feel for the situation and what is and isn't on the table.
To Summarize:
- Cuts of significance were Quinn & Trevethan
- Notable FAs not back: Ifedi, Daniels, Dalton, Graham, Hicks
- new external FAs above minimum: NONE
- internal FAs back at more than 1-3M: Robinson and Nichols. That's it.
- 26.5M in dead money. Really. Well over 10% of the cap for players that aren't even here.
- And the end result still doesn't even make it under the cap without more work.
- And the OL is still a wreck unless Jenkins and Borom are both starter quality.
Yes, there's some salary guesswork involved. It's fairly minor, though.
Yes, you can get a little more room by pushing money forward. Not as much as people like to think, though. And doing that is part of the tight situation they are in. That practice makes sense when you're the Saints and are in the mix for a championship nearly every year with an aging great QB. You kick the can down the road and live for the moment. When you're a perennial .500 team with 0 playoff wins, not so much.
Same for heavily backloading Robinson - you can do it, but it's a bad idea.
You can push a little money forward by making Quinn & Trevethan Post June 1, which isn't done here. But they're also pushing Graham money forward (presumably to make a 2021 move), which isn't accounted for here either.
A lot of core players are hitting big raises (mostly in contracts already written, so people aren't really thinking about and expecting it) right about
2022 and they're either literally uncuttable or very painful from a football standpoint to lose - Goldman, Nichols, Roquan, Whitehair, Mack, Jackson. There's not much obvious fat to cut and nearly all there is, I've done. If you want some serious room to maneuver, you're going to have to dig even deeper than launching Ifedi, Daniels, Hicks - you're going to have to do something like say goodbye to a Roquan, Goldman, Mack, Nichols, or ARob.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2021 9:09 am
by Moriarty
Code: Select all
PLAYER POS. AGE FA IN 2022 HIT POS TOTAL
R2 CB $1,800,000 $6,533,838
Jaylon Johnson CB 23 2024 $1,764,210
Artie Burns CB 27 $1,000,000
Shelley/Graham CB 26 2023 $996,960
Kindle Vildor CB 25 2024 $972,668
Eddie Goldman DL 28 2024 $11,810,000 $28,780,028
Bilal Nichols DL 26 $8,000,000
Mario Edwards DL 28 2024 $4,224,116
Angelo Blackson DL 30 2023 $3,000,000
R6 DL $900,000
Khyiris Tonga DL 26 2025 $845,912
Roquan Smith ILB 25 2023 $9,735,000 $13,762,333
Alec Ogletree ILB 31 $1,200,000
R5 ILB $1,000,000
R5 ILB $1,000,000
Caleb Johnson ILB 24 2024 $827,333
Cody Whitehair OL 30 2025 $12,300,000 $21,214,599
Teven Jenkins OL 24 2025 $1,906,329
R3 OL $1,100,000
Sam Mustipher OL 26 $1,000,000
inside ? OL $1,000,000
outside ? OL $1,000,000
? OL $1,000,000
Alex Bars OL 27 $1,000,000
Larry Borom OL 23 2025 $908,270
Khalil Mack OLB 31 2025 $30,150,000 $35,076,418
J Attaochu OLB 29 2023 $3,100,000
Trevis Gipson OLB 25 2024 $976,418
Snowden OLB $850,000
Nick Foles QB 33 2023 $10,666,667 $14,955,748
Justin Fields QB 23 2026 $4,289,081
Tarik Cohen RB 27 2024 $5,750,000 $8,709,254
D Montgomery RB 25 2023 $1,201,577
Nall/Pierce RB $900,000
Khalil Herbert RB 24 2025 $857,677
Eddie Jackson S 30 2025 $15,090,000 $20,590,000
Tashaun Gipson S 32 $2,000,000
Deon Bush S 29 $1,500,000
Houston-Carson S 29 $1,000,000
Christian S $1,000,000
Cairo Santos ST-K 31 2024 $3,175,000 $6,175,000
Patrick Scales ST-LS 34 $1,000,000
Pat O'Donnell ST-P 31 $2,000,000
Jesse James TE 28 $3,500,000 $7,566,667
Cole Kmet TE 23 2024 $2,066,667
J.P. Holtz TE 29 $1,000,000
Horsted TE $1,000,000
Allen Robinson WR 29 $18,000,000 $23,665,513
M Goodwin WR 32 $2,000,000
Darnell Mooney WR 25 2024 $965,513
Adams? WR $900,000
Coulter? WR $900,000
? WR $900,000
Roster $187,029,398
Dead Money $26,435,924
Total $213,465,322
Cap $208,870,683
Net ($4,594,639)
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2021 11:34 am
by malk
And my regular reminder that we're in this position despite not having to pay an NFL starting QB salary nor having had to since Cutler, who wasn't particularly expensive himself.
Oline $200
Receivers $150
Defence $800
One year journeymen and ageing vets $3,600
Khalil Mack $150
someone who is good at the cap please help me budget this. my team is dying
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:36 pm
by Grizzled
The Bears just converted $5.825 million of Jimmy Graham's salary to a signing bonus, freeing up 4.6 million this year but putting that 5.825 M against the '22 cap.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:15 pm
by G08
Pace/Lane are from the New Orleans Saints model of "kick the can down the road". Every year, seemingly, the Saints are in salary cap hell yet they figure it out.
Color me unconcerned until further notice.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:43 pm
by The Cooler King
G08 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:15 pm
Pace/Lane are from the New Orleans Saints model of "kick the can down the road". Every year, seemingly, the Saints are in salary
cap hell yet they figure it out.
Color me unconcerned until further notice.
I've definitely stopped worrying about it. I won't claim it's a strategy without risks and downsides, but I think people ignore that more conservative
cap management strategies come with risk in the form of opportunity cost. People just have a really big aversion to dead
cap, but as long as it's accounted for we don't have to freak out about.
I'll grade Paces
cap management on the quality of deals he gives, not how he structures them. (and there is plenty of room for complaint there).
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2021 5:40 pm
by RichH55
I love this thread Moriarty - Thank you
(I had definitely looked at it before this)
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2021 5:52 pm
by southdakbearfan
I have no idea how close OTC is, but going into the cap manager cutting Quinn, Foles, Graham and Trevathon leaves them a 55 million in cap space. But only leaves 28 players under contract for 22.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2021 6:41 pm
by RichH55
Moriarty - have might you been incorporating these two upcoming things:
1) Upcoming Revenue Growth (less corona)
2) The massive TV Contracts coming soon
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2021 6:56 pm
by RichH55
I think people thinking Danny T is an obvious cut might be wrong (or at least its closer than you think)
I think he only saves just over 3 million in real cap money (i.e. you aren't paying the base and roster bonus) - but actually will count more in Dead money (at least for 2022)
So for 3+ million and pushing some dead money hurt down the line a year - I think he could finish out the contract
I also think potentially dealing Foles next year gets more possible too
I do think Eddie Goldman could very, very much be a trade candidate
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:23 pm
by The Cooler King
southdakbearfan wrote: ↑Thu Sep 09, 2021 5:52 pm
I have no idea how close OTC is, but going into the
cap manager cutting Quinn, Foles, Graham and Trevathon leaves them a 55 million in
cap space. But only leaves 28 players under contract for 22.
Graham really can't be cut. His deal will just void. But they could potentially resign him to kick that dead
cap out another year or two.
But 55M looks about right. With how many open roster spots they have open thats like "effective"
cap spending of 37M as you'd be at nearly 20M just to fill out the roster with minimum salary guys. Not much in the way of picks. And some important FA. But with back loading, it's not too bad. And a lot more potential space frees up in subsequent years. So they can afford some backloading.
Key roles/players to replace among FA.
Allen Robinson
Akiem Hicks
Pat O'Donnell
James Daniels
Marquise Goodwin
Damiere Byrd
Alec Ogletree
Sam Mustipher (ERFA)
Bilal Nichols
That WR is pretty empty going into
2022... Only Mooney under contract.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:51 pm
by Moriarty
southdakbearfan wrote: ↑Thu Sep 09, 2021 5:52 pm
I have no idea how close OTC is, but going into the
cap manager cutting Quinn, Foles, Graham and Trevathon leaves them a 55 million in
cap space. But only leaves 28 players under contract for 22.
And then from there, add 23 low level players at roughly 1M each, then I re-signed ARob for 18 and Nichols for 8, and that's roughly the end of your 55M (23+18+8)
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:42 am
by southdakbearfan
RichH55 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 09, 2021 6:56 pm
I think people thinking Danny T is an obvious cut might be wrong (or at least its closer than you think)
I think he only saves just over 3 million in real
cap money (i.e. you aren't paying the base and roster bonus) - but actually will count more in Dead money (at least for
2022)
So for 3+ million and pushing some dead money hurt down the line a year - I think he could finish out the contract
I also think potentially dealing Foles next year gets more possible too
I do think Eddie Goldman could very, very much be a trade candidate
If Foles is still on the team at year's end he is most likely a cut due to a roster bonus that will come due if he is still on the roster when the league year starts. Dalton is the same hit cut or on the team so he most likely stays as backup.
DT is over 6 million in dead
cap even if he plays out 22, it just depends on what year they decide to take the hit (another void year special).
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:46 am
by The Cooler King
southdakbearfan wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:42 am
RichH55 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 09, 2021 6:56 pm
I think people thinking Danny T is an obvious cut might be wrong (or at least its closer than you think)
I think he only saves just over 3 million in real
cap money (i.e. you aren't paying the base and roster bonus) - but actually will count more in Dead money (at least for
2022)
So for 3+ million and pushing some dead money hurt down the line a year - I think he could finish out the contract
I also think potentially dealing Foles next year gets more possible too
I do think Eddie Goldman could very, very much be a trade candidate
If Foles is still on the team at year's end he is most likely a cut due to a roster bonus that will come due if he is still on the roster when the league year starts. Dalton is the same hit cut or on the team so he most likely stays as backup.
DT is over 6 million in dead
cap even if he plays out 22, it just depends on what year they decide to take the hit (another void year special).
I don't think Dalton is actually signed for next year that's just dead money from this year.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 8:15 am
by southdakbearfan
The Cooler King wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:46 am
southdakbearfan wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:42 am
If Foles is still on the team at year's end he is most likely a cut due to a roster bonus that will come due if he is still on the roster when the league year starts. Dalton is the same hit cut or on the team so he most likely stays as backup.
DT is over 6 million in dead
cap even if he plays out 22, it just depends on what year they decide to take the hit (another void year special).
I don't think Dalton is actually signed for next year that's just dead money from this year.
Sweet, maybe they can play with ghost rushers.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 8:58 am
by RichH55
southdakbearfan wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:42 am
RichH55 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 09, 2021 6:56 pm
I think people thinking Danny T is an obvious cut might be wrong (or at least its closer than you think)
I think he only saves just over 3 million in real
cap money (i.e. you aren't paying the base and roster bonus) - but actually will count more in Dead money (at least for
2022)
So for 3+ million and pushing some dead money hurt down the line a year - I think he could finish out the contract
I also think potentially dealing Foles next year gets more possible too
I do think Eddie Goldman could very, very much be a trade candidate
If Foles is still on the team at year's end he is most likely a cut due to a roster bonus that will come due if he is still on the roster when the league year starts. Dalton is the same hit cut or on the team so he most likely stays as backup.
DT is over 6 million in dead
cap even if he plays out 22, it just depends on what year they decide to take the hit (another void year special).
I think the Foles Roster Bonus is guaranteed - so you can't get out of it unless you trade him beforehand
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:05 am
by RichH55
I dont think we resign Robinson either
They should be careful as to the Comp picks this offseason
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:11 am
by Artbest
Maybe I'm wrong as I don't follow the cap the way many of you do - but the fact that the Bears released a frontline starting CB and replaced him with a 5th round stiff (again, hope I'm wrong - but I doubt it) is due to cap mismanagement...ditto feeling compelled to release Charles Leno, hardly an elite left tackle but someone who at least has the pelts on the wall. Drafting a pre-injured tackle to replace him then compelled the Bears to sign a 39 year old has-been off of his fishing boat.
Ryan Pace sucks - and cap management is one of the many reasons why (so it appears)
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:47 am
by RichH55
Artbest wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:11 am
Maybe I'm wrong as I don't follow the
cap the way many of you do - but the fact that the Bears released a frontline starting CB and replaced him with a 5th round stiff (again, hope I'm wrong - but I doubt it) is due to
cap mismanagement...ditto feeling compelled to release Charles Leno, hardly an elite left tackle but someone who at least has the pelts on the wall. Drafting a pre-injured tackle to replace him then compelled the Bears to sign a 39 year old has-been off of his fishing boat.
Ryan Pace sucks - and
cap management is one of the many reasons why (so it appears)
The Leno thing was just kind of an odd choice Art - It wasn't necessary (Granted the Jenkins injury makes it look dumber in retrospect)
Cap wise
Fuller was very much a
cap thing (Leno could have been a
cap thing if you want to make it a choice between Fuller and Leno - ok)
Jimmy Graham should have factored into the calculus - that just never made sense
Pace's contracts haven't been great - I think thats a fair point
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:14 am
by Moriarty
Cutting Foles only saves you 3M. And then you have to sign a different vet as your backup, which will cost you 1-6M. There's just not much point or much to gain.
Yes, DT costs you money after he's gone, Dalton costs you money after he's gone, Ifedi costs you money after he's gone...
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:51 am
by The Cooler King
Moriarty wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:14 am
Cutting Foles only saves you 3M. And then you have to sign a different vet as your backup, which will cost you 1-6M. There's just not much point or much to gain.
Yes, DT costs you money after he's gone, Dalton costs you money after he's gone, Ifedi costs you money after he's gone...
I think is possible you could go cheaper than 3M for Foles at backup QB. But it's not a slam dunk.
Possibly they'll be able to see if there's a trade market for him though. Still some guaranteed money they could walk away from in a trade v cut scenario.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:55 am
by The Cooler King
RichH55 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:47 am
Pace's contracts haven't been great - I think thats a fair point
This is where the entire discussion should be focused. People just get distracted with other things that just simply don't matter.
Danny Trevanthans deal was never gonna look good. Quinn's was a bust. Graham was a luxury they probably didn't need. You can kind of go on and on. Now granted you have to weigh it against any wins in good positive contracts to be fair. But I would say he has given out too many bad deals and especially in the last few years.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 11:21 am
by Moriarty
RichH55 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:47 am
Artbest wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:11 am
Ryan Pace sucks - and
cap management is one of the many reasons why (so it appears)
Pace's contracts haven't been great - I think thats a fair point
His contracts and
cap management have been poor.
People aren't going to realize or admit it until he's gone and the pain of the cleanup effort sets in for the chump that inherits his mess.
Meanwhile, he's not going to be willing to experience the pain of getting things in order while he's here. So he's going to delay the reckoning for as long as possible and keep pushing money forward as much as he can. He should be able to do it enough and for long enough for them to make a mini-run if/when Fields starts playing well. But the house of cards comes down at some point and it very likely will hold them back in the future.
For those pimping the Saints - do you realize:
a) In the last 12 years, they've got 8 playoffs, 8 playoff wins, 1 SB championship. In Pace's 6, 2 playoffs, 0 playoff wins. They got something worthwhile in return for sacrificing the future.
b) They lost (cut, retire, FA walks) 10 players and almost 90M in salary (that's just
savings, not even counting dead money) this year to get under the
cap. And they
still had to restructure 9 contracts (keep pushing the money forward - 50M worth) to make it, even after 90M in clearance. Next year Spotrac has them 20M over with only 36 under contract. That's going to be 35M over at least, by the time they fill their roster. OTC has them even worse - 35M over with 38 under contract. And they don't have any easy removals left like 25M for Brees, either. Almost all their highest paid players cost more to cut (Pre June 1) than to keep. Sure, "they'll figure it out, just like they always do" - with another bloodletting and by continuing to push money forward, because
they have no other choice. They're trapped in a cycle and they literally couldn't stop pushing forward for another 1-3 years, even if their lives depended on it.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:36 pm
by dplank
I was worried about this when we hired Pace because of the Loomis connection. That said, a “cap reset” can happen in one year, two at most. It’ll be a painful year, but it’s not like it’s a 5 year process. The only time it’s a long rebuild like that is when you have no young talent to build around - that’s not us.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:51 pm
by The Cooler King
dplank wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:36 pm
I was worried about this when we hired Pace because of the Loomis connection. That said, a “
cap reset” can happen in one year, two at most. It’ll be a painful year, but it’s not like it’s a 5 year process. The only time it’s a long rebuild like that is when you have no young talent to build around - that’s not us.
I'm less and less convinced resets are even needed under the Saints model. Its just "always defer". Sure you'll never have a "clean"
cap, but theres no sign that the ability to defer will go away either. There's really not too much functional difference between always spending this year's
cap verse always spending next year's
cap. The key is to move past any sunk cost aversions. Dead caps and void years and whatever are just distractions and window dressing that don't really matter.
Plus I'm starting to be convinced that Loomis is just trolling us at times now after the bogus Taysom Hill "extension" . Their
cap is never as bad as even the average NFL analyst realizes. I'm convinced all their tricks are always preacccounted for. In a way they're not 35M over next years
cap. I bet they know every paper
cap hit already out there and how they'll defer it. It's like a shell game.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 1:06 pm
by dplank
True. It reared it's head against us this offseason because of the unexpected, very unique cap reduction scenario that no one could have planned for. Without that, we don't have to cut Fuller this offseason.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 1:33 pm
by Mikefive
Anybody else thinking that if Eddie Jackson doesn't come around this year under Desai, it's time to cut bait on him via trade or release? That said, not sure how such moves would hit us in the short run.
He's like the QB who has to have everything just right around him to perform at a high level--an it is a very high level. Otherwise though, he's not good at all. He's a centerfielder. He's not a guy you want to depend on as a tackler.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 1:49 pm
by The Cooler King
Mikefive wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 1:33 pm
Anybody else thinking that if Eddie Jackson doesn't come around this year under Desai, it's time to cut bait on him via trade or release? That said, not sure how such moves would hit us in the short run.
He's like the QB who has to have everything just right around him to perform at a high level--an it is a very high level. Otherwise though, he's not good at all. He's a centerfielder. He's not a guy you want to depend on as a tackler.
Probably not. He has a partial guarantee for
2022 that is fully guaranteed on day 3 of the league year.
Maybe by 2023 he'll be a cut candidate. But let's just hope he rebounds and makes such speculation look incredibly silly in hindsight.
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 1:58 pm
by Moriarty
Next year his cap hit goes from 5 to 15M.
I can't conceive of any way that he plays 2021 in such a way that you feel he's worth 15M.
But at the same time, you get 18.5M in dead money if you axe him in the 2022 offseason.
So you pretty much have to bend over and take it in 2022 and then evaluate the future from there (which means very likely cut him at that point).
Re: 2022 Salary Cap Outlook
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:07 pm
by The Cooler King
He has 5 fully guaranteed and another 6 guaranteed for injury next year. Assuming he's healthy and you could get out if the 6, how bad does he have to be to be willing to cut him? I think pretty bad. I really can't imagine him being that bad. And he could rebound and just look like his old self too!
And you have to decide quick as that 6 fully guarantees on day 3 of the league year.