Random Salary Cap Musings and Questions

[Grizzled]

I still think we should be cautious with our expectations for 23. Poles has all the resources in the world right now, but they aren't going to upgrade 80% of this roster in one offseason.

I think a wildcard spot should be the goal, but let's not get too far out over our skis. It's still going to be a very young team.

A realistic goal is an improvement of 4 to possibly 5 wins.

[Mikefive]

I still think we should be cautious with our expectations for 23. Poles has all the resources in the world right now, but they aren't going to upgrade 80% of this roster in one offseason.

I think a wildcard spot should be the goal, but let's not get too far out over our skis. It's still going to be a very young team.

I agree. We lead the league in cap space, but I'd be willing to bet we also lead the league in contracts to write to fill the 53.

[The Cooler King]

I still think we should be cautious with our expectations for 23. Poles has all the resources in the world right now, but they aren't going to upgrade 80% of this roster in one offseason.

I think a wildcard spot should be the goal, but let's not get too far out over our skis. It's still going to be a very young team.

A realistic goal is an improvement of 4 to possibly 5 wins.

That's setting expectations too low.

I stress, it's not a matter of if he spends the money. It's how he does it. And there's enough that one or two flops shouldn't kill his roster build.

8 win teams are still largely teams ridden with holes. He doesn't need to find multiple All Pros and fill every hole to make an 8 win team (especially with Fields at QB and hopefully taking the next step).

[malk]

Even with a perfect offseason it can still go to gell quickly. If you get a few injuries to key players then that could be a season derailed right there, or at least knock us back from a 10/11 win team to a 7/8 win one.

But the playoffs absolutely has to be the goal absent anything catastrophic. We're 5 new starters plus health (or better depth) away from being a playoff team. We can absolutely get that in one offseason with the resources we have.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

In association football we call it “silly season” which I think is appropriate.

Bears could be like the Bengals last season.

[Moriarty]

Bears could be like the Bengals last season.

Unlikely.
People kept bringing up the Bengals last offseason and I had to keep reminding people that the Bengals did 2 full rebuilding seasons before they had their "overnight success" in year 3.
Everyone wants the amazing results without the suffering and the wait time.

The Bears will bump next year.
They might even make the playoffs (although I wouldn't bet that way, even odds)
But they are in no way ready for coming within a hair of a SB championiship.

They've got at least another year of growth to go - and that assumes Fields can take the next step, which is in no way a sure thing.
If it turns out they don't have the QB, they're just a bumper car spinning wildly.

[Moriarty]

I stress, it's not a matter of if he spends the money. It's how he does it.

He could, theoretically, get fewer signings and front-load the hell out of them.
That meets the cash spend requirements, buys you less this year, but frees up more for future years.

Not advocating hard for or against that right now, but just suggesting it is possible and makes sense in rare circumstances, which this may fit.

[The Cooler King]

I stress, it's not a matter of if he spends the money. It's how he does it.

He could, theoretically, get fewer signings and front-load the hell out of them.
That meets the cash spend requirements, buys you less this year, but frees up more for future years.

Not advocating hard for or against that right now, but just suggesting it is possible and makes sense in rare circumstances, which this may fit.

I mean I think he'll already front load a bit.

When I have looked at other big spending teams, they usually spend less than 10% up front (Year 1 cash against average annual value). If they need to spend $150M in cash against an effective cap space of $10M thats already built in that they'll be at high end on up fronting. Are they just gon a straight double it and pre-pay all the year 2 salaries of every major signing?

[Moriarty]

There's all kinds of creative things you can do. Actually, paying all of year 2 up front is a great option.

Fiddling with numbers for 4 60M

(a bit exaggerated, maybe, but for illustration)

20M 10/10/10/10 = 15/15/15/15
flat
20M 19/1/10/10 = 24/6/15/15
yr 2 prepaid - transfers cap space from 2023 to 2024
40M 5/5/5/5 = 15/15/15/15
excessive bonus - gives you 45M spend right away
4M 40/1/1/14 = 41/2/2/15
also high cash spend, lets you bail on yr 4 if you want, transfers cap space from 2023 to 2024 & 25

[The Cooler King]

I'm not totally following the proposals there, but yea they all seem highly unusual.

But even if you did purposefully forward 2024 base salaries, I think it's more than fair to question if it's excessive in nature because even with a traditional big FA spend year, they'd still project to have good flexibility in 2024. The cap is there to use, and the best laid plans are easily wrecked. They punted one year hard. I don't like getting overly cute trying to maximize some windows 2+ years away. Always be building. They aren't gonna ruin themselves with one big FA offseason (that they've basically backed into)

[The Cooler King]

Getting really micro with it as well, there are some edge reasons to prefer base salaries over bonuses, at least for future years. It's a balance (up front payment of course being nice), but I'm not convinced its as easy as it sounds.

There's what's possible of course, but also looking to the market for realistic expectations. If I can't ground ideas in market consensus I'm gonna immediately be skeptical of its viability.

[thunderspirit]

I still think we should be cautious with our expectations for 23. Poles has all the resources in the world right now, but they aren't going to upgrade 80% of this roster in one offseason.

I think a wildcard spot should be the goal, but let's not get too far out over our skis. It's still going to be a very young team.

This. I do think a winning record (i.e., 9-8) is possible if things go well.

Even if Da'Ron Payne/Dre'Mont Jones or Charles Omenihu/Arden Key don't make it to free agency to help the Bears on defense, the Bears should be able to improve the offense. Some combination of Jawaan Taylor/Trey Pipkins/Greg Little at tackle and Connor McGovern/Evan Brown at C/G makes the offensive line much more palatable. I'd be surprised if the Bears showed interest in DJ Chark or Parris Campbell at WR but I wouldn't be with flyers on Olamide Zaccheaus/Trent Sherfield, or even Ashton Dulin.

[Moriarty]

side note

the Bears will be carrying baggage in the form of $21 million in dead cap in 2023. That's the projected fourth-highest mark in the NFL.

While this will probably change a bit (as other teams slash more people & money in the offseason than the Bears), it's still hilarious that Ryan Pace's dead money structuring lives on.

[The Cooler King]

side note

the Bears will be carrying baggage in the form of $21 million in dead cap in 2023. That's the projected fourth-highest mark in the NFL.

While this will probably change a bit (as other teams slash more people & money in the offseason than the Bears), it's still hilarious that Ryan Pace's dead money structuring lives on.

Eehhh, that number is almost all Quinn driven. Of course about half of it would have hit eventually, but like you said it's a timing thing. Because he was traded instead of eventually cut, we see it all there now projected, but teams taking on some dead cap happens once cuts are processed. Plus he made the decision to bring him back and convert additional base for the trade, thus increasing the dead cap, but thats not really any reflection of old regime (yes the base salary is, but it was unguaranteed at that point).

(none of thats a criticism of Poles, but it still is largely a reflection of choices made that could have appears different vis a vie dead caps, given different circumstances under his control)

Next big chunk is Smiths dead cap and same situation. Smith was in 5th year option of rookie scale which wasn't determined by prior regime.

[RichH55]

I still think we should be cautious with our expectations for 23. Poles has all the resources in the world right now, but they aren't going to upgrade 80% of this roster in one offseason.

I think a wildcard spot should be the goal, but let's not get too far out over our skis. It's still going to be a very young team.

This. I do think a winning record (i.e., 9-8) is possible if things go well.

Even if Da'Ron Payne/Dre'Mont Jones or Charles Omenihu/Arden Key don't make it to free agency to help the Bears on defense, the Bears should be able to improve the offense. Some combination of Jawaan Taylor/Trey Pipkins/Greg Little at tackle and Connor McGovern/Evan Brown at C/G makes the offensive line much more palatable. I'd be surprised if the Bears showed interest in DJ Chark or Parris Campbell at WR but I wouldn't be with flyers on Olamide Zaccheaus/Trent Sherfield, or even Ashton Dulin.

Jawaan Taylor at LT would scare the heck out of me TBH

[wab]

This. I do think a winning record (i.e., 9-8) is possible if things go well.

Even if Da'Ron Payne/Dre'Mont Jones or Charles Omenihu/Arden Key don't make it to free agency to help the Bears on defense, the Bears should be able to improve the offense. Some combination of Jawaan Taylor/Trey Pipkins/Greg Little at tackle and Connor McGovern/Evan Brown at C/G makes the offensive line much more palatable. I'd be surprised if the Bears showed interest in DJ Chark or Parris Campbell at WR but I wouldn't be with flyers on Olamide Zaccheaus/Trent Sherfield, or even Ashton Dulin.

Jawaan Taylor at LT would scare the heck out of me TBH

Same. I don't even know if I'd be excited about him at RT. He's been pretty bad up until this season.

I still think they fill RT in free agency and draft a guard/tackle type.

Carter surprised me when he was in there at RG... he looked like he belonged, and he looked bigger than 6'3...he was helmet-to-helmet with Reiff and Jones...

[RichH55]

Jawaan Taylor at LT would scare the heck out of me TBH

Same. I don't even know if I'd be excited about him at RT. He's been pretty bad up until this season.

I still think they fill RT in free agency and draft a guard/tackle type.

Carter surprised me when he was in there at RG... he looked like he belonged, and he looked bigger than 6'3...he was helmet-to-helmet with Reiff and Jones...

Guards grow on trees

I am interested in McGary at RT - really liked him during Senior Bowl week - Though in fairness I really don't know how hes been doing with Atlanta

[wab]

Same. I don't even know if I'd be excited about him at RT. He's been pretty bad up until this season.

I still think they fill RT in free agency and draft a guard/tackle type.

Carter surprised me when he was in there at RG... he looked like he belonged, and he looked bigger than 6'3...he was helmet-to-helmet with Reiff and Jones...

Guards grow on trees

I am interested in McGary at RT - really liked him during Senior Bowl week - Though in fairness I really don't know how hes been doing with Atlanta

He's been fine. This was probably his best year. He battled some nagging injuries early in his career and seemed to have some trouble adjusting to the right side.

[The Marshall Plan]

I still think we should be cautious with our expectations for 23. Poles has all the resources in the world right now, but they aren't going to upgrade 80% of this roster in one offseason.

I think a wildcard spot should be the goal, but let's not get too far out over our skis. It's still going to be a very young team.

This is exactly how you get 40 years of futility.

Always managing expectations.

[wab]

I still think we should be cautious with our expectations for 23. Poles has all the resources in the world right now, but they aren't going to upgrade 80% of this roster in one offseason.

I think a wildcard spot should be the goal, but let's not get too far out over our skis. It's still going to be a very young team.

This is exactly how you get 40 years of futility.

Always managing expectations.

*tempering

And the 40 years of inconsistent success has more to do with a the QB problems than tempering expectations.

[thunderspirit]

FWIW, I don't see any way the Bears look at someone else at LT unless Braxton Jones falls flat on his face — the best anyone should expect is veteran competition. I also think Jawaan Taylor would be fine at RT, but would again underscore the above point; the LT job is Jones' to lose.

I don't have any confidence that Poles is gonna set the o-line market, and this year's parade of injuries has to give him pause, which to me suggests he's not likely to be in on McGary or, to a lesser extent, McGlinchy, guys who are near the top of most teams' shopping lists but who have both had some injury history and would be risky big-dollar signings.

Taylor has warts, to be sure. But his four years in the league show: 100% of offensive snaps in 2019, 100% in 2020, 100% in 2021, 97.7% in 2022. (OMG, he's trending downward! )

[thunderspirit]

And the 40 years of inconsistent success has more to do with a the QB problems than tempering expectations.

Evergreen post.

[wab]

FWIW, I don't see any way the Bears look at someone else at LT unless Braxton Jones falls flat on his face — the best anyone should expect is veteran competition. I also think Jawaan Taylor would be fine at RT, but would again underscore the above point; the LT job is Jones' to lose.

I don't have any confidence that Poles is gonna set the o-line market, and this year's parade of injuries has to give him pause, which to me suggests he's not likely to be in on McGary or, to a lesser extent, McGlinchy, guys who are near the top of most teams' shopping lists but who have both had some injury history and would be risky big-dollar signings.

Taylor has warts, to be sure. But his four years in the league show: 100% of offensive snaps in 2019, 100% in 2020, 100% in 2021, 97.7% in 2022. (OMG, he's trending downward! )

I don't dislike Taylor, although I think he gets a sneaky large contract.

I will say that Sam Mustipher hasn't missed a snap either...

[wab]

3 years 27mil seems in line with what Taylor might get.

By contrast, McGlinchy is projected to get 4/43 and McGary is at 4/70 (HOLYSHIT).

[thunderspirit]

I will say that Sam Mustipher hasn't missed a snap either...

Fair point.

But, that may be part of why two separate coaching staffs loved the guy.

[The Marshall Plan]

This is exactly how you get 40 years of futility.

Always managing expectations.

*tempering

And the 40 years of inconsistent success has more to do with a the QB problems than tempering expectations.

Really?

The Grammar Police?

I'll take that as a checkmate.

[RichH55]

*tempering

And the 40 years of inconsistent success has more to do with a the QB problems than tempering expectations.

Really?

The Grammar Police?

I'll take that as a checkmate.

Really?

Wow.

But sure Fans expectations are why we haven't won a Super Bowl in so long. Sure.

[cblaz11]

I fully expect it the Bears to take a tackle early…one with LT capabilities. After that, they let that player and Braxton fight it out for LT, the loser going to the right side.

[Arkansasbear]

I still think we should be cautious with our expectations for 23. Poles has all the resources in the world right now, but they aren't going to upgrade 80% of this roster in one offseason.

I think a wildcard spot should be the goal, but let's not get too far out over our skis. It's still going to be a very young team.

A realistic goal is an improvement of 4 to possibly 5 wins.

I think it should be a bit more than that. We had so many games that we managed to pull defeat out of the jaws of victory (okay, that's a stretch, but several games we had a real shot at winning). I would expect to win 3 more games if we replayed the season and we got breaks going our way and didn't have the injury bug hit us at an alarming high rate. Assuming we can improve our talent level on the OL, DL and at WR (can't get much worse), I think that's good for 3-4 wins at least. So I'd think an increase of 6 or 7 wins should be the floor

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Realistically I can’t see any team beating the Bears next season.