Bears WR discussion

[Rusty Trombagent]

I guess i also dont understand the "the timing isnt right" argument. Year three of a rookie qb is when you're hopefully going for it. Why not bring in DK a year early so in year 3 they actually have chemistry?

I dont actually think he's gonna get traded and this is all hypotheticals, but the reasoning against doesnt really feel sound.

I think I addressed that in multiple ways in the post immediately before yours.

DK is not proved to be what he was in '20. And it doesn't fit with Poles approach for this year.

I mean, i dont think Poles would do it either, but "what if players on our team turn out to be amazing and we dont need him" is an argument against signing... everyone?

Also, come the fuck on with his production dipping. Geno Smith started 4 games, and Russ rushed back when his hand was clearly still bothering him. Of course his production is gonna dip.

[Grizzled]

I think I addressed that in multiple ways in the post immediately before yours.

DK is not proved to be what he was in '20. And it doesn't fit with Poles approach for this year.

I mean, i dont think Poles would do it either, but "what if players on our team turn out to be amazing and we dont need him" is an argument against signing... everyone?

Also, come the fuck on with his production dipping. Geno Smith started 4 games, and Russ rushed back when his hand was clearly still bothering him. Of course his production is gonna dip.

Plus he played in a Seattle offense in which a superstar QB was clearly disgruntled to the point of being traded to another team. Run first philosophy tends to depress pass catching numbers.

[Yogi da Bear]

The bust rate for highly drafted WRs used to be very high, Kevin White’s and Roy Williams and David Boston’ type busts used to happen every single year it seemed. That does appear to be lesser these days, likely for the reasons you mentioned.

It's funny that Yogi keeps mentioning Justin Jefferson, while ignoring that one pick before Justin Jefferson was Jalen Raegor, who's looking like a complete bust.

Quite a weird comment to make when I've only mentioned Jefferson in three posts in the history of the board, and two of those were as part of long lists while the third was to show the production of a true #1 young receiver can do, as well as our own fifth round draft pick in Mooney, in comparison to Metcalf last year.

But be that as it may, you're suggesting we can get one of the best if not the best receiver in the league or a bust or Metcalf? Hard question. But let's take it a bit further than Reagor shall we? Ruggs as the first WR was cut when he killed somebody drunk driving. Jeudy was taken next but had injury issues. I'd take him over Metcalf right now, despite that. Then Ceedee Lamb was chosen and he finished 16th in yardage this year compared to Metcalf's 28th. Then we had Reagor and Jefferson. Then Brandon Aiyuk was chosen. He finished 40th last year despite playing alongside Deebo Samuel. Then there was Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman. They finished 17th and 18th. So really it's not between Jefferson or bust Reagor or Metcalf. It's really four of the first seven chosen all produced better than Metcalf. A fifth in Jeudy know I'd much rather have. A sixth was stuck behind the fifth receiver in the league in Deebo. You're really only looking at Ruggs and Reagor as busts out of the top 8 with a third with worst yardage while playing behind Deebo. The other five all produced better than Metcalf. Quite better odds I think. And that's not even considering Mooney as our fifth rounder that year who also produced better.

And that's only 2020. It's not even considering that EACH of the top 3 WR picks in 2021 and a 4th rounder all had better production as ROOKIES than Metcalf did last year.

Yeah, I like those odds rather than paying Metcalf a fortune in both salary and draft capital.

[RichH55]

I guess i also dont understand the "the timing isnt right" argument. Year three of a rookie qb is when you're hopefully going for it. Why not bring in DK a year early so in year 3 they actually have chemistry?

I dont actually think he's gonna get traded and this is all hypotheticals, but the reasoning against doesnt really feel sound.

I think I addressed that in multiple ways in the post immediately before yours.

DK is not proved to be what he was in '20. And it doesn't fit with Poles approach for this year.

I think we are in agreement here - the problem is that DK is more likely to be like the 18th best WR than the 3rd best

I think its the fact he's such a physical freak that plays into peoples assessments of him

[dplank]

Not for me, I believe he’s more the 2020 version (which was Top 5) than the 2021 version.

[IE]

Not for me, I believe he’s more the 2020 version (which was Top 5) than the 2021 version.

I get that. I believe Borom is the OT we saw on the left, where he performed well even as a rookie.

[dplank]

Not for me, I believe he’s more the 2020 version (which was Top 5) than the 2021 version.

I get that. I believe Borom is the OT we saw on the left, where he performed well even as a rookie.

He might be bud, I was impressed with him and think he has a shot. My call for a vet is more about an insurance plan than it is anything else.

[RichH55]

Not for me, I believe he’s more the 2020 version (which was Top 5) than the 2021 version.

Even in 2020 it doesn't look like he was Top 5 in either Yards or TD for WR (Granted the list Im looking at has TE mixed in too). but clearly his better year

I had missed the DJ Moore extension - cross him off the list too

[dplank]

Not for me, I believe he’s more the 2020 version (which was Top 5) than the 2021 version.

Even in 2020 it doesn't look like he was Top 5 in either Yards or TD for WR (Granted the list Im looking at has TE mixed in too). but clearly his better year

I had missed the DJ Moore extension - cross him off the list too

He was an All Pro WR that year. I don’t put much stock in pro bowl appearances, but All Pro is the real deal IMO. Urlacher was an annual pro bowler but only an All Pro 4 times - it’s an achievement.

[RichH55]

Even in 2020 it doesn't look like he was Top 5 in either Yards or TD for WR (Granted the list Im looking at has TE mixed in too). but clearly his better year

I had missed the DJ Moore extension - cross him off the list too

He was an All Pro WR that year. I don’t put much stock in pro bowl appearances, but All Pro is the real deal IMO. Urlacher was an annual pro bowler but only an All Pro 4 times - it’s an achievement.

It is - though did Kyle Fuller get it once?

[wab]

He was an All Pro WR that year. I don’t put much stock in pro bowl appearances, but All Pro is the real deal IMO. Urlacher was an annual pro bowler but only an All Pro 4 times - it’s an achievement.

It is - though did Kyle Fuller get it once?

He did. In 2018. Along with Eddie Jackson. And Tarik Cohen.

[IE]

It is - though did Kyle Fuller get it once?

He did. In 2018. Along with Eddie Jackson. And Tarik Cohen.

[dplank]

Yep and it’s possible Metcalf never gets another, in which case I’d be wrong. Cohen got it as a ST player so not really valid - but Fuller is a good example of a guy who wasn’t all that great but got All Pro once.

[Bearfacts]

Yes please.

Not gonna happen I don't think. Poles isn't going to give up a first rounder and thirty million for him, not when he can use that first rounder for a talented WR that he can have on a rookie contract.

IE: you beat me to it, as I had to cook and came back and the posting dialogue box was still open.

Yup. For a GM whose insistent on building his roster via the draft I don't see going after Metcalf as a high probability. It just doesn't fit with Poles M.O..

[Bearfacts]

So now we want to trade a potential top 8 draft pick or more, and hand out 30 million or more to a WR... but people have argued for PAGES about the importance of acquiring 4th round comp pick?

Also...I thought the Bears weren't competing this year? Why trade such valuable assets in essentially a throwaway season? Is Metcalf really the difference between a 4-5 win season and a 12-13 win season?

Nice that someone else is noticing that and commenting. The flip flopping around here is about knee deep and getting deeper.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Yep and it’s possible Metcalf never gets another, in which case I’d be wrong. Cohen got it as a ST player so not really valid - but Fuller is a good example of a guy who wasn’t all that great but got All Pro once.

That's doing Fuller a disservice.

The year he was first team All Pro, 2018, he tied for the league lead in interceptions (7) and led the league in passes defensed (21) and was obviously fully deserving of the accolade.

However, it wasn't his only quality year. The year before he was second in the league in passes defensed (22) and came 6th in Comeback Player of the Year voting. The year after he was voted to the Pro Bowl. He recorded 18 interceptions in his first 5 seasons (not counting 2016 where he missed the entire year ). Outside of 2016 he proved to be very durable throughout his time in Chicago, missing only two games in his rookie season.

Fuller was a very good cornerback for the Bears, better than a tag of "wasn't all that great". If Johnson or Gordon prove to be as productive we should be happy with that. Hopefully at least one will be even better.

[Grizzled]

Just don't see Poles giving up both a high draft pick and then forking over $25 to $30M per year for Metcalf. He has his plans for rebuilding the Bears which seem to include building through the draft and picking up free agents who there won't be bidding wars over to keep cap flexibility.

In case I'm wrong (which is often), Poles can wait until 2023 when he's a UFA and try to entice him to the team without using a draft pick. 2022 is more and more looking like a rebuilding year; while having him would be helpful for JF and him to build chemistry, the Bears need to hold that draft pick.

[RichH55]

Hunter Renfroe off the board now too - if you are looking for WR FA - maybe you are hoping for someone to break out this upcoming year?

Otherwise its not exactly raining WR on FA (Draft is probably another story)

[RichH55]

Yep and it’s possible Metcalf never gets another, in which case I’d be wrong. Cohen got it as a ST player so not really valid - but Fuller is a good example of a guy who wasn’t all that great but got All Pro once.

That's doing Fuller a disservice.

The year he was first team All Pro, 2018, he tied for the league lead in interceptions (7) and led the league in passes defensed (21) and was obviously fully deserving of the accolade.

However, it wasn't his only quality year. The year before he was second in the league in passes defensed (22) and came 6th in Comeback Player of the Year voting. The year after he was voted to the Pro Bowl. He recorded 18 interceptions in his first 5 seasons (not counting 2016 where he missed the entire year ). Outside of 2016 he proved to be very durable throughout his time in Chicago, missing only two games in his rookie season.

Fuller was a very good cornerback for the Bears, better than a tag of "wasn't all that great". If Johnson or Gordon prove to be as productive we should be happy with that. Hopefully at least one will be even better.

I think Dplank was using that in the context of the All-Pro designation specifically - not as if Fuller was some scrub.

[Yogi da Bear]

Just don't see Poles giving up both a high draft pick and then forking over $25 to $30M per year for Metcalf. He has his plans for rebuilding the Bears which seem to include building through the draft and picking up free agents who there won't be bidding wars over to keep cap flexibility.

In case I'm wrong (which is often), Poles can wait until 2023 when he's a UFA and try to entice him to the team without using a draft pick. 2022 is more and more looking like a rebuilding year; while having him would be helpful for JF and him to build chemistry, the Bears need to hold that draft pick.

I have to wonder though how much Poles will extend in free agency in 2023. He's already said he wants to build through the draft and to only approach those UFAs who are hungry with a chip on their shoulders. Not sure if this was meant only for this offseason of for the team going forward. Probably the first is meant for the team going for forward, but considering he immediately tried to sign Ogun to a pretty hefty contract this year in the first wave, I think that perhaps he wasn't quite serious about his free agency approach going forward. But you never know. It is what he's said. Even next year, I think he might not be quite as "spendiferous" as some are now believing, even with the excess of cap space available.

[wab]

Just don't see Poles giving up both a high draft pick and then forking over $25 to $30M per year for Metcalf. He has his plans for rebuilding the Bears which seem to include building through the draft and picking up free agents who there won't be bidding wars over to keep cap flexibility.

In case I'm wrong (which is often), Poles can wait until 2023 when he's a UFA and try to entice him to the team without using a draft pick. 2022 is more and more looking like a rebuilding year; while having him would be helpful for JF and him to build chemistry, the Bears need to hold that draft pick.

I have to wonder though how much Poles will extend in free agency in 2023. He's already said he wants to build through the draft and to only approach those UFAs who are hungry with a chip on their shoulders. Not sure if this was meant only for this offseason of for the team going forward. Probably the first is meant for the team going for forward, but considering he immediately tried to sign Ogun to a pretty hefty contract this year in the first wave, I think that perhaps he wasn't quite serious about his free agency approach going forward. But you never know. It is what he's said. Even next year, I think he might not be quite as "spendiferous" as some are now believing, even with the excess of cap space available.

They are going to have to spend a ton to meet the cap requirements. Some of that will probably be on Ro, but I could see another high priced FA coming to town too.

[The Marshall Plan]

Yep and it’s possible Metcalf never gets another, in which case I’d be wrong. Cohen got it as a ST player so not really valid - but Fuller is a good example of a guy who wasn’t all that great but got All Pro once.

That's doing Fuller a disservice.

The year he was first team All Pro, 2018, he tied for the league lead in interceptions (7) and led the league in passes defensed (21) and was obviously fully deserving of the accolade.

However, it wasn't his only quality year. The year before he was second in the league in passes defensed (22) and came 6th in Comeback Player of the Year voting. The year after he was voted to the Pro Bowl. He recorded 18 interceptions in his first 5 seasons (not counting 2016 where he missed the entire year ). Outside of 2016 he proved to be very durable throughout his time in Chicago, missing only two games in his rookie season.

Fuller was a very good cornerback for the Bears, better than a tag of "wasn't all that great". If Johnson or Gordon prove to be as productive we should be happy with that. Hopefully at least one will be even better.

My thing with Fuller is that he was not a first round "shut down" type corner. He was a good player and certainly not a liability, but in the end, he would've been replaceable by probably about a dozen other guys in the league.

[dplank]

That's doing Fuller a disservice.

The year he was first team All Pro, 2018, he tied for the league lead in interceptions (7) and led the league in passes defensed (21) and was obviously fully deserving of the accolade.

However, it wasn't his only quality year. The year before he was second in the league in passes defensed (22) and came 6th in Comeback Player of the Year voting. The year after he was voted to the Pro Bowl. He recorded 18 interceptions in his first 5 seasons (not counting 2016 where he missed the entire year ). Outside of 2016 he proved to be very durable throughout his time in Chicago, missing only two games in his rookie season.

Fuller was a very good cornerback for the Bears, better than a tag of "wasn't all that great". If Johnson or Gordon prove to be as productive we should be happy with that. Hopefully at least one will be even better.

I think Dplank was using that in the context of the All-Pro designation specifically - not as if Fuller was some scrub.

Yea that's what I meant, because the context here was "is Metcalf worth a 25M contract". He'd have to be on of the best in the game for that to be worth it. I loved Fuller, would take him back in a heartbeat and think he'd fit well in Flus scheme. But he isn't worth trading a 1st round pick and paying 25M a year for.

[wab]

So based on some of the discussion in this thread, what if Metcalf turns out to be a one year rental. If a new contract isn't part of the trade, how do we know he will want to stick around (if a guy like Pringle won't want to, why would Metcalf?)

I don't think the Bears would be dumb enough to trade for him without a new deal in place, but I'm just wondering out loud.

[RichH55]

I have to wonder though how much Poles will extend in free agency in 2023. He's already said he wants to build through the draft and to only approach those UFAs who are hungry with a chip on their shoulders. Not sure if this was meant only for this offseason of for the team going forward. Probably the first is meant for the team going for forward, but considering he immediately tried to sign Ogun to a pretty hefty contract this year in the first wave, I think that perhaps he wasn't quite serious about his free agency approach going forward. But you never know. It is what he's said. Even next year, I think he might not be quite as "spendiferous" as some are now believing, even with the excess of cap space available.

They are going to have to spend a ton to meet the cap requirements. Some of that will probably be on Ro, but I could see another high priced FA coming to town too.

The key is who will be there ( a list that isnt super impressive to begin with -and gets weaker by the day)

Maybe Davenport - Saints? Overpay Dalton Risner?

Ashawn Robinson?

I like D.Tomlinson's game - and he fits a decent chunk of what we'd want overall -

Chase Winovich as a rotation guy who competes hard?

Drew Sample would be a 2 way TE who we might like because he can help in Run game

[dplank]

So based on some of the discussion in this thread, what if Metcalf turns out to be a one year rental. If a new contract isn't part of the trade, how do we know he will want to stick around (if a guy like Pringle won't want to, why would Metcalf?)

I don't think the Bears would be dumb enough to trade for him without a new deal in place, but I'm just wondering out loud.

No chance I'd do a big deal unless a new contract came with it. Or, kind of like ARob's value at the trade deadline, I'd give up like a 4th or something.

[RichH55]

If the Seahawks really are gung ho about keeping Metcalf - and its kind of a rebuild

Maybe Lockett could be in play?

[Grizzled]

If the Seahawks really are gung ho about keeping Metcalf - and its kind of a rebuild

Maybe Lockett could be in play?

Lockett's under contract until '26 at a much more reasonable salary than Metcalf is expected to get (approx. $17M per year). He's 30, should have a few good years left. I can see the 'Hawks wondering if they want to pay both. But does he add much beyond what Mooney brings?

[Yogi da Bear]

Mooney is better than Lockett.

[dplank]

Mooney is better than Lockett.

Statistically speaking, this is false.