Bears WR discussion

[artbest01]

FWIW, I don't see Poles making a move for Metcalf - the price will be too high. The Bears are looking at a top 3-7 pick or so in 2023. They're not parting with that imo.

That said, and it's VERY early and players are in shorts, but Adam Jahns mentioned that, in the OTAs he witnessed, the only receivers who showed up were Mooney and Velus Jones Jr. - both were consistently open. The other receivers, even with no contact, were easily blanketed by the Bears secondary.

[Yogi da Bear]

Mooney is better than Lockett.

Statistically speaking, this is false.

No it's not. Depends on how you look at it.

In Lockett's first two seasons, he had 1261 yards, 92 receptions, 7 TDs. Mooney has had 142 receptions, 1686 yards, and 8 TDs. Lockett didn't break 1000 yards until his fifth year. Mooney did it in his second. All this while Lockett has had Russell Wilson at QB and Pete Carroll as coach. Mooney on the other hand has had Trubiskey, the rookie Fields, and over the hill Dalton and Foles throwing him the ball behind a completely inept Matt Nagy.

Yeah, I have no problem saying that Mooney is better than Lockett, statistically or otherwise. He's bigger, faster, jumps higher and further, and has had 1/3 more production in his first two years than Lockett did playing behind a future HOF QB.

[IE]

FWIW, I don't see Poles making a move for Metcalf - the price will be too high. The Bears are looking at a top 3-7 pick or so in 2023. They're not parting with that imo.

That said, and it's VERY early and players are in shorts, but Adam Jahns mentioned that, in the OTAs he witnessed, the only receivers who showed up were Mooney and Velus Jones Jr. - both were consistently open. The other receivers, even with no contact, were easily blanketed by the Bears secondary.

I hate posts like this.

First, no - the Bears are not so certainly looking for a 3-7 pick next year. Screw that - that's national narrative and there's no basis in certainty on that. Repeating it only proves you're cynical - and nothing more. It says more about you than the team.

Second - Byron Pringle was one of the league leaders in separation last year, and don't you worry your pretty little cynical head about him. "Easily blanketed"... LOL

[artbest01]

First - easy on the crack chief

Second - I hope you’re right, but, on paper at this very early stage, you’re likely not. This is a team at stage one of a near complete rebuild



quote=IE post_id=300578 time=1654986158 user_id=77]

FWIW, I don't see Poles making a move for Metcalf - the price will be too high. The Bears are looking at a top 3-7 pick or so in 2023. They're not parting with that imo.

That said, and it's VERY early and players are in shorts, but Adam Jahns mentioned that, in the OTAs he witnessed, the only receivers who showed up were Mooney and Velus Jones Jr. - both were consistently open. The other receivers, even with no contact, were easily blanketed by the Bears secondary.

I hate posts like this.

First, no - the Bears are not so certainly looking for a 3-7 pick next year. Screw that - that's national narrative and there's no basis in certainty on that. Repeating it only proves you're cynical - and nothing more. It says more about you than the team.

Second - Byron Pringle was one of the league leaders in separation last year, and don't you worry your pretty little cynical head about him. "Easily blanketed"... LOL
[/quote]

[Bearfacts]

Well we have the 4th most current cap space (top 51) so Poles has set himself up pretty well as far as having the room to add some talent wherever he and Flus feel it's needed. I'm actually expecting him to do just that as players are released he believes can help.

I have to believe he would also like to get Roquan extended before the season begins and possibly Monty as well.

[thunderspirit]

First - easy on the crack chief

Second - I hope you’re right, but, on paper at this very early stage, you’re likely not. This is a team at stage one of a near complete rebuild

It is categorically not at stage one of a near complete rebuild, unless you believe Justin Fields is a bust.

[Heinz D.]

It is categorically not at stage one of a near complete rebuild, unless you believe Justin Fields is a bust.

Thank you.

I'll maintain it 'til the end--the rebuild started last year. Pace put it in motion, Poles is guiding it along.

[dplank]

What moves did Pace make last year that make it a rebuild year?

[Heinz D.]

What moves did Pace make last year that make it a rebuild year?

New starting quarterback. New starting tackles (offensive line). Tagged Robinson (meaning he was as good as gone--not trading him is insanity best left for another conversation). Didn't extend Hicks. Cut Fuller. Signed Blackson.

[rtd]

First - easy on the crack chief

Second - I hope you’re right, but, on paper at this very early stage, you’re likely not. This is a team at stage one of a near complete rebuild

It is categorically not at stage one of a near complete rebuild, unless you believe Justin Fields is a bust.

That is absolutely right. Stage one is tank and GET the QB.

[dplank]

What moves did Pace make last year that make it a rebuild year?

New starting quarterback. New starting tackles (offensive line). Tagged Robinson (meaning he was as good as gone--not trading him is insanity best left for another conversation). Didn't extend Hicks. Cut Fuller. Signed Blackson.

[Bearfacts]

Here's a question for the masses. Have we been fair to Poles and the WR themselves as far as those WR he has brought in? Are we viewing their potential in our offensive scheme as he does or are we only seeing them in terms of what they've done elsewhere?

We know that Pringle has the versatility to play any WR position, excellent speed, and an ability get separation. In fact he's been ranked as one of the best in the NFL at this. Overall he seems to be a perfect fit for this scheme which differs from what KC runs.

Eq St. Brown also has deep speed, size, and a wide catch radius but one reason I believe Getsy chose him over MVS is his blocking ability. There were a number of run plays GB used where Eq was a key blocker on that play. He should also be a good RZ target.

Dante Pettis has good speed and size but has never been able to stay healthy enough to ascend following his rookie season. At best he's a JAG Poles picked up for competition and to see if he still has any upside at all. He's only 50/50 to make the team at best.

When he's played a full season Tajae Sharpe has put up some decent stats for a #4 or #5 WR when playing in a similar offensive scheme in SF. He may actually have a better chance of making the roster as a depth guy than Pettis. But can he play ST?


Overall I think Mooney, Kmet, Pringle, and Jones will get the majority of the targets. When Mooney, Pringle, and Jones are all on the field that's a whole lot of deep speed defenses will need to honor and both Pringle and Jones are also guys who when playing in the Slot can turn short passes into longer gains and scores. I don't believe that's a bad receiver core albeit it's a thin one that would be hurt if we lose any of the top three. I could see Poles still looking to add another WR later on but not one like a DK Metcalf.

We'll have a full slate of draft picks next year, plenty of cap to pursue top shelf talent wherever needed, and as far as our WR core goes we'll have far better understanding of who our playmakers are and what we need to add. The guys we have may not include a true top of the heap #1 guy but I don't see them as being anywhere near as bad as a group as the media paints them to be.

[artbest01]

Pace didn’t truly start a “rebuild” imo - if he did, he wouldnt have traded up for fields - instead, he would have focused on acquiring more draft capital. Hard to rebuild with limited draft picks.

In a rebuild, I doubt Robinson gets tagged - they likely let him go. Hicks wasn’t extended for age and health reasons. The linemen were drafted to fill gaping holes.

What pace seemingly was trying to do was reset at qb with fields while remaining mediocre enough to be in the playoff hunt. He likely wouldn’t have traded Mack and most likely would have been aggressive in free agency.

Poles is breaking the team down to the studs - all while hoping that fields is a true building block. Jettisoning Mack, Robinson and Hicks? That’s rebuilding. Pace didn’t do that. Poles is cleaning up Paces mess

[dplank]

I actually think your both right

[Heinz D.]

I actually think your both right

Yeah, @artbest01 is on the money, too. Well, for the most part--I'd argue that Robinson, Mack and Hicks did basically nothing last year, so I'd describe their departures a little differently than he did.

So, we're just wording things differently. The underlying weirdness of the 2021 season was that Pace was trying to rebuild on the fly while also remaining competitive enough for he and Nagy to keep their jobs. Which is the epitome of a football shitstorm, and something that the McCaskeys should have never let happen.

[dplank]

Yea it’s really hard to say either way unless a blatant tank is going on, which wasn’t happening last year nor is it happening now. I can see the moves on ARob, Hicks and Mack either way really.

I think one aspect that is unarguable though is that we are not a year 1 / ground zero of a rebuild. That would be a tank scenario and drafting of our future QB in 2023, as you said we already have our QB and now 3 Young OTs to build around. We are at least in Y2 of a rebuild just due to having Fields.

[Heinz D.]

I think one aspect that is unarguable though is that we are not a year 1 / ground zero of a rebuild. That would be a tank scenario and drafting of our future QB in 2023, as you said we already have our QB and now 3 Young OTs to build around. We are at least in Y2 of a rebuild just due to having Fields.

Exactly. Pace got really, really lucky. (Well, odds are, anyway...)

[artbest01]

We’re getting into semantics - it’s absolutely true that, if fields is the goods, that pushes the bears ahead of schedule in their rebuild - but “rebuild” clearly wasn’t on Paces mind. If it were, Robinson walks before last season, Mack is traded when his value was higher than it was a year later etc. Pace was hoping to save his and his head coach’s job….thinking that having a Vic Fangio disciple at dc, Andy Dalton at QB and the promise of Justin fields was enough to a. Compete for a playoff spot and b. Convince ownership that the franchise was in good hands.

As it turned out, the outside help George brought were highly critical of both the coach and the gm - the roster was a disaster. The purge didn’t begin until Poles arrived. The bears didn’t spend big on free agents and tried to make the best of limited draft capital with an eye on the future.

This isn’t a talented roster. IF fields explodes and an undermanned defense over achieves, it’s very possible that this team surprises. Most likely, this team replicates what we saw in 2004

[RichH55]

What moves did Pace make last year that make it a rebuild year?

New starting quarterback. New starting tackles (offensive line). Tagged Robinson (meaning he was as good as gone--not trading him is insanity best left for another conversation). Didn't extend Hicks. Cut Fuller. Signed Blackson.

This is rather flimsy IMHO.

Fuller got cut because he was overpaid for what he was. And he had a so-so year in Denver.

That's actually kind of good self scouting.

Drafting OL isn't really a rebuild thing - AND he reportedly turned down Raiders interest in Mack - The opposite of what you'd do in a rebuild

[RichH55]

Statistically speaking, this is false.

No it's not. Depends on how you look at it.

In Lockett's first two seasons, he had 1261 yards, 92 receptions, 7 TDs. Mooney has had 142 receptions, 1686 yards, and 8 TDs. Lockett didn't break 1000 yards until his fifth year. Mooney did it in his second. All this while Lockett has had Russell Wilson at QB and Pete Carroll as coach. Mooney on the other hand has had Trubiskey, the rookie Fields, and over the hill Dalton and Foles throwing him the ball behind a completely inept Matt Nagy.

Yeah, I have no problem saying that Mooney is better than Lockett, statistically or otherwise. He's bigger, faster, jumps higher and further, and has had 1/3 more production in his first two years than Lockett did playing behind a future HOF QB.

Look - There is basically very little way to say Mooney is flat out better than Lockett IMHO. But focusing on Lockett's 1st two years (though oddly ignoring the offense Carroll runs or depth charts, etc). is a particularly foolhardy way

Is really weird for the purpose of saying Mooney is better NOW than Lockett is. Like ignoring the previous 4 seasons - which - especially last year - is way way way more pertinent

Lockett is averaging the last 4 seasons 78 REC for 1062 Yards and 9 TD. That is remarkably consistent good WR play. AND the season he's coming off of - might have been his best season - and that Season involved a decent chunk of Geno Smith.

But lets maybe put like 100% less focus on 2015 and 2016

For the record I have them pretty similarly rated and think they are very similar players. But maybe others really really want to focus on 2015 like it matters

[Heinz D.]

This isn’t a talented roster. IF fields explodes and an undermanned defense over achieves, it’s very possible that this team surprises. Most likely, this team replicates what we saw in 2004

You think the defense is "undermanned" because Hicks and Mack are gone?

[dplank]

This isn’t a talented roster. IF fields explodes and an undermanned defense over achieves, it’s very possible that this team surprises. Most likely, this team replicates what we saw in 2004

You think the defense is "undermanned" because Hicks and Mack are gone?

They were undermanned last year after Hicks and Mack went out. Front 7 looks weak but on the flip side our secondary could be very good!

[Yogi da Bear]

This isn’t a talented roster. IF fields explodes and an undermanned defense over achieves, it’s very possible that this team surprises. Most likely, this team replicates what we saw in 2004

You think the defense is "undermanned" because Hicks and Mack are gone?

Yeah, I agree with most of what Art says, but the idea of the defense being undermanned is really questionable. The secondary is light years beyond what they were last year. That and I think the addition of Morrow is going to make are pass defense damn stingy. We still have the Bears' record setting sack leader. We have AQM, a veteran in our defense and a third year vet who seemed to come out last year with 7 sacks and a physically gifted rookie. The only place we're undermanned is at DT, yet we still have a free agent to be our 3T. Still, we need to get stronger there, but I wouldn't characterize our defense as being undermanned. And if we can somehow sign Ogun, I'd say we're fully stocked.

[Heinz D.]

They were undermanned last year after Hicks and Mack went out. Front 7 looks weak but on the flip side our secondary could be very good!

The secondary will be MUCH improved--and not just because of the new additions, either.

I won't bother to parse the impact of Hicks and Mack going out...as they did the year before as well, and the '21 Bears still sacked the quarterback at a ferocious rate.

In other words...the defense still ended up being fairly good, when all was said and done.

Yeah, I agree with most of what Art says, but the idea of the defense being undermanned is really questionable. The secondary is light years beyond what they were last year. That and I think the addition of Morrow is going to make are pass defense damn stingy. We still have the Bears' record setting sack leader. We have AQM, a veteran in our defense and a third year vet who seemed to come out last year with 7 sacks and a physically gifted rookie. The only place we're undermanned is at DT, yet we still have a free agent to be our 3T. Still, we need to get stronger there, but I wouldn't characterize our defense as being undermanned. And if we can somehow sign Ogun, I'd say we're fully stocked.

They're not a perfect group, and Poles and Flus may still add more pieces...but what we have already is still pretty damned good.

And I don't think a lot of folks realize just how special Trevis Gipson might be. We'll have to wait and see what happens with this kid--but I'm just tellin' ya, you heard it here first...

[dplank]

This is an odd offseason, seems like half the board thinks we will be really good and half thinks we will be really bad. I can see both sides, but being bad seems more likely to me. A lot of rookie players and coaches would need to hit for this to work - this year at least.

[Bearfacts]

We’re getting into semantics - it’s absolutely true that, if fields is the goods, that pushes the bears ahead of schedule in their rebuild - but “rebuild” clearly wasn’t on Paces mind. If it were, Robinson walks before last season, Mack is traded when his value was higher than it was a year later etc. Pace was hoping to save his and his head coach’s job….thinking that having a Vic Fangio disciple at dc, Andy Dalton at QB and the promise of Justin fields was enough to a. Compete for a playoff spot and b. Convince ownership that the franchise was in good hands.

As it turned out, the outside help George brought were highly critical of both the coach and the gm - the roster was a disaster. The purge didn’t begin until Poles arrived. The bears didn’t spend big on free agents and tried to make the best of limited draft capital with an eye on the future.

This isn’t a talented roster. IF fields explodes and an undermanned defense over achieves, it’s very possible that this team surprises. Most likely, this team replicates what we saw in 2004

I think you nailed it right here. GMC seemed attached to Pace and was so pleased with the work he'd done with the Halas Hall expansion and modernization that he may have cut him far more slack with the teams fortunes than may have ordinarily been the case. Then Polian arrives and lifts that veil over his eyes. He shows him that he has another poor HC and coaching staff, an aging and increasingly costly roster, and other than one 12-4 season the rest is average to sub-average. In short, it's not working with Pace.

[dplank]

Seems right to me. Not to deviate, but Pace blew a gig where he had ownership support with basically two moves, drafting Mitch and hiring McNagy. Everything else is window dressing IMO.

[Heinz D.]

I think you nailed it right here. GMC seemed attached to Pace and was so pleased with the work he'd done with the Halas Hall expansion and modernization that he may have cut him far more slack with the teams fortunes than may have ordinarily been the case. Then Polian arrives and lifts that veil over his eyes. He shows him that he has another poor HC and coaching staff, an aging and increasingly costly roster, and other than one 12-4 season the rest is average to sub-average. In short, it's not working with Pace.

Really?

You think the roster is actually a "disaster"?

You don't think they win more than six games last year, with a decent coach?

Seems right to me. Not to deviate, but Pace blew a gig where he had ownership support with basically two moves, drafting Mitch and hiring McNagy. Everything else is window dressing IMO.

Nagy was garbage. Once Mitch busted, the Mack trade was a weight dragging the whole franchise down.

So far, I'm pretty happy with Poles and Eberflus...and they may not have been available, or as desirable, last off-season. That still doesn't mean that Pace and Nagy should have seen '21, though.

[Bearfacts]

I think you nailed it right here. GMC seemed attached to Pace and was so pleased with the work he'd done with the Halas Hall expansion and modernization that he may have cut him far more slack with the teams fortunes than may have ordinarily been the case. Then Polian arrives and lifts that veil over his eyes. He shows him that he has another poor HC and coaching staff, an aging and increasingly costly roster, and other than one 12-4 season the rest is average to sub-average. In short, it's not working with Pace.

Really?

You think the roster is actually a "disaster"?

You don't think they win more than six games last year, with a decent coach?

Now come on brother. I never used the word "disaster" to describe the 2021 roster. I said it was an aging and increasingly costly roster. I can also add that I believe it had become less efficient due to age and injuries. Polian's point may only to have been to question the kind of $$$ we were spending only to achieve average results. I think that would have sunk in with GMcC.

As to the second question I think they might have won more games every year with a better coach including 2018 where we were one and done in the playoffs due to double doink. By year end Nagy's offense wasn't fooling anyone and it didn't thereafter either.

[malk]

Really?

You think the roster is actually a "disaster"?

You don't think they win more than six games last year, with a decent coach?

Now come on brother. I never used the word "disaster" to describe the 2021 roster. I said it was an aging and increasingly costly roster. I can also add that I believe it had become less efficient due to age and injuries. Polian's point may only to have been to question the kind of $$$ we were spending only to achieve average results. I think that would have sunk in with GMcC.

As to the second question I think they might have won more games every year with a better coach including 2018 where we were one and done in the playoffs due to double doink. By year end Nagy's offense wasn't fooling anyone and it didn't thereafter either.

It's a little tangential but I don't think that wins is a great metric of how good a roster is overall. At least not if you're looking beyond the immediate season. Sure if you're at 11/12+ wins then you're at least pretty good and in the mix for making the superbowl. But below that would you rather be:

4 win team with a few key building blocks and cap space.
a 9 win team stacked with middling vets but either no superstars or ones that are 30+ and on the hill looking at being over it?

I keep coming back to this but Pace's main roster issue was the constant tinkering to make the next season better without fully considering what would happen in the next three years.

As to whether the roster is a disaster, um, it might be. Now I don't think it is but we have remarkably few players that we know are really good.

Montgomery
Mooney
Quinn
Smith
Johnson
Santos
Whitehair
Jackson

Of those only Smith is currently elite, Whitehair is pretty average and Jackson is lucky to make the list.

If Fields isn't good we're a long way from being good. I'm happy we have him, confident with him, but I wouldn't put a lot of money on him being great because this is the NFL and it wouldn't be a good bet.

After that it's fine to have high hopes for Pringle, Jones Jr, Kmet, Jenkins, Borom, Patrick, Muhammad, Gipson, Jones, Morrow, Gordon, Graham Jr and Brisker but chances are they won't all work out.

I'm really excited for this season as there are a bunch of players I'm excited to find out about. Plus if the line can be solid and Fields kicks on there's enough talent to look at the playoffs. Plus plus if we get decent rookie returns from Gordon and Brisker and a slight return to form for Jackson... well we could have a top ten defence. But a few key busts and shit's going to get depressing quickly!