Bears WR discussion

[RichH55]

You think the defense is "undermanned" because Hicks and Mack are gone?

Yeah, I agree with most of what Art says, but the idea of the defense being undermanned is really questionable. The secondary is light years beyond what they were last year. That and I think the addition of Morrow is going to make are pass defense damn stingy. We still have the Bears' record setting sack leader. We have AQM, a veteran in our defense and a third year vet who seemed to come out last year with 7 sacks and a physically gifted rookie. The only place we're undermanned is at DT, yet we still have a free agent to be our 3T. Still, we need to get stronger there, but I wouldn't characterize our defense as being undermanned. And if we can somehow sign Ogun, I'd say we're fully stocked.

AQM actually had 6 Sacks last year.....though I like that by the end of the thread he will hold the overall season sack record and be the best player ever!!!


I do think Justin Jones is going to surprise people though - and I am struggling to hold back my enthusiasm on the Secondary

[Heinz D.]

Now come on brother. I never used the word "disaster" to describe the 2021 roster. I said it was an aging and increasingly costly roster. I can also add that I believe it had become less efficient due to age and injuries. Polian's point may only to have been to question the kind of $$$ we were spending only to achieve average results. I think that would have sunk in with GMcC.

As to the second question I think they might have won more games every year with a better coach including 2018 where we were one and done in the playoffs due to double doink. By year end Nagy's offense wasn't fooling anyone and it didn't thereafter either.

Well, I mean...you said he "nailed it"? And those were the terms he used, and the positions he took?

And you're right about Nagy being way too predictable, and stubborn. (You nailed it! )

[Heinz D.]

I keep coming back to this but Pace's main roster issue was the constant tinkering to make the next season better without fully considering what would happen in the next three years.

Sometimes it seemed as if he was looking towards the future, other times it seemed like he was firmly planted in the NOW. Yeah...Pace was a different cat. I don't know if he was simply incapable of viewing the team, and charting its path, as MOST GMs do...of if the Trubisky bust/Mack trade debacle just fried Pace's brain.

If Fields isn't good we're a long way from being good. I'm happy we have him, confident with him, but I wouldn't put a lot of money on him being great because this is the NFL and it wouldn't be a good bet.

Yeah, if Fields is a bust, that changes everything.

But you really don't think it's a good bet that he's not?

After that it's fine to have high hopes for Pringle, Jones Jr, Kmet, Jenkins, Borom, Patrick, Muhammad, Gipson, Jones, Morrow, Gordon, Graham Jr and Brisker but chances are they won't all work out.

Well...Pringle, Kmet, Patrick, Muhammad, Jones and Morrow are all known commodities, are they not? As in, we know they aren't bad players?

And isn't Gipson awfully close to that categorization?

[dplank]

I don’t think there is enough supporting evidence on any of those guys to say they are good.

[malk]

I keep coming back to this but Pace's main roster issue was the constant tinkering to make the next season better without fully considering what would happen in the next three years.

Sometimes it seemed as if he was looking towards the future, other times it seemed like he was firmly planted in the NOW. Yeah...Pace was a different cat. I don't know if he was simply incapable of viewing the team, and charting its path, as MOST GMs do...of if the Trubisky bust/Mack trade debacle just fried Pace's brain.

If Fields isn't good we're a long way from being good. I'm happy we have him, confident with him, but I wouldn't put a lot of money on him being great because this is the NFL and it wouldn't be a good bet.

Yeah, if Fields is a bust, that changes everything.

But you really don't think it's a good bet that he's not?

After that it's fine to have high hopes for Pringle, Jones Jr, Kmet, Jenkins, Borom, Patrick, Muhammad, Gipson, Jones, Morrow, Gordon, Graham Jr and Brisker but chances are they won't all work out.

Well...Pringle, Kmet, Patrick, Muhammad, Jones and Morrow are all known commodities, are they not? As in, we know they aren't bad players?

And isn't Gipson awfully close to that categorization?

I said I wouldn't put a lot of money on him being great. It's of course more likely that he isn't a bust but we need better than not being a bust from him.

For the rest you mention, how known are they?

Pringle - Two years as a bit part player averaging one target a game. One year with 60 targets for 500+ yards. Again, I really like the signing, but he's absolutely not a proven commodity, especially coming out of a well oiled KC offence that might make players look better than they otherwise would be.
Kmet - I've been perhaps too harsh on Kmet given the Nagy "offence" and 612 yards on 93 targets in year 2 is decent. But it isn't massively solid ground to predict him becoming a great player.
Patrick - 3 years of very little and then the 2 most recent where he looks pretty good. I like the signing but he isn't a proven commodity.
Muhammad - 1 season as a significant starter and 6 sacks, 7 TFL and 13 QB hits. A good season but needs a step up to be great plus needs to show consistency over time.
Jones - 4.5 sacks, 5 5 TFL and 5 QB hits in 35 starts over 4 years. Loads still to prove.
Morrow - 29 starts in 4 years, never more than 11 in a season. Another one I like the look of but a boatload to prove.

Now I absolutely wouldn't be surprised if they all show themselves to be decent starters, and along with the rookies, if we can field a team that doesn't have a glaring hole anywhere on the starting 11s then Poles has done a good job in his first year. But we need more top end talent, more difference makers to go with solid starters. Smith is already one probably Quinn too putting my personal scepticism aside. Oh and Santos to the extent that a kicker can be a difference maker. Of the rest I think Fields, Montgomery, Mooney and Johnson can make the next step, plus Pringle. The rest I personally don't see getting much better than solid starter level bar for the rookies and making predictions there is a fools errand!


All of which is a long winded version of saying we might have a team with 5 or so difference makers to build around, a few really promising rookies, and lots of solid players around them. But we might get to the end of the year with only Smith as a top end player, lots of solid players and some disappointing busts.

The roster is really raw. That's exciting, but also a little scary!

[dplank]

Yea I see it same Malk, potential is there but assuming any of those guys are good just isn’t based on anything tangible, just hope.

While the national media certainly misses one or two surprise teams each year, it’s also true that by and large they are pretty close on their predictions of who will be good and who won’t. Folks love pointing to the examples where a surprise team happens, but conveniently fail to mention the other 30 team predictions that went as expected.

[IE]

Yea I see it same Malk, potential is there but assuming any of those guys are good just isn’t based on anything tangible, just hope.

While the national media certainly misses one or two surprise teams each year, it’s also true that by and large they are pretty close on their predictions of who will be good and who won’t. Folks love pointing to the examples where a surprise team happens, but conveniently fail to mention the other 30 team predictions that went as expected.

Let's just agree on what the media are "correct" about in their predictions. The national media predict "who is good" meaning they predict their schedule results, and the actual W/L the predictions can be misleading. The Bears could win only 6-8 games but still impress upon the league that they are an emerging force to be reckoned with... vs a team that wins 8-9 games but everyone knows isn't really very good or sustainably good.

And then the impression that they are good at predicting uncertain things is misleading. The certainty of the prediction call across all teams is pretty strong, because most are fairly known quantities... like shooting fish in a barrel. For contending teams it is simply how many they'll win in between ~11-14 games. Then for many other well -known teams they'll expect to be average because they have good players but for whatever reasons (including sharing divisions with powerhouses) their schedule can be safely pegged between ~8-10 wins. Between those two groups it is a huge chunk of the pool - so that dramatically reduces the "prediction risk" to the small number of teams where significant uncertainty resides.

[dplank]

I think this is the upside we are all hoping for. Be scrappy, play tough, get better as the season progresses, and be poised to be a dangerous team in 2023.

[IE]

I think this is the upside we are all hoping for. Be scrappy, play tough, get better as the season progresses, and be poised to be a dangerous team in 2023.

That's where I'm at. And I think honestly the whole thing comes down to JF1 and his development. As a legit franchise he should be able to make everyone around him better. He should make an Olineman and a WR a probowler. He should turn Kmet into a threat. I fully expect him to get there as the season progresses, if not early on. He really significantly improved over the course of last year, and showed some really good flashes. Just needs to pull it all together in an offense being designed and called for him.

[dplank]

Yea true, but did rookie or Y2 Brady/Manning/Brees magically produce pro bowlers around them? I agree with the narrative EVENTUALLY, but seems a big ask for a 2nd year player. The 2nd year QBs that have popped off recently have had a lot of help (Kelce/Hill, Chase/Higgins/Boyd, etc). It takes time for a QB to achieve that level of greatness where you can surround them with garbage and they still do well I.e. that prick in GB.

[Bearfacts]

Now come on brother. I never used the word "disaster" to describe the 2021 roster. I said it was an aging and increasingly costly roster. I can also add that I believe it had become less efficient due to age and injuries. Polian's point may only to have been to question the kind of $$$ we were spending only to achieve average results. I think that would have sunk in with GMcC.

As to the second question I think they might have won more games every year with a better coach including 2018 where we were one and done in the playoffs due to double doink. By year end Nagy's offense wasn't fooling anyone and it didn't thereafter either.

Well, I mean...you said he "nailed it"? And those were the terms he used, and the positions he took?

And you're right about Nagy being way too predictable, and stubborn. (You nailed it! )

Had to go back to read what I'd responded to. What nailed it IMHO was the fist paragraph. I also believe the personal relationship Pace had with the McCaskey Family may have clouded GMcC perceptions at times. Polian merely lifted that veil.

I never thought the 2021 roster was a disaster but rather one of increasing costs vs declining returns. It was not in the long run gonna return the Bears to winning the NFCN and making deep playoff runs. With or without Pace there were some significant moves that were gonna need to be made but with Nagy still coaching would any of that have made a difference? I don't believe so.

[malk]

I think this is the upside we are all hoping for. Be scrappy, play tough, get better as the season progresses, and be poised to be a dangerous team in 2023.

That's where I'm at. And I think honestly the whole thing comes down to JF1 and his development. As a legit franchise he should be able to make everyone around him better. He should make an Olineman and a WR a probowler. He should turn Kmet into a threat. I fully expect him to get there as the season progresses, if not early on. He really significantly improved over the course of last year, and showed some really good flashes. Just needs to pull it all together in an offense being designed and called for him.

I think it needs to be extended past just Fields but otherwise it's right. I want the team to have a good feel on a bunch of the players so we know what needs targeting next year. Frankly there were so many holes and question marks going into this season that it was just a case of throwing vaguely promising players at as many gaps as we could and hoping for the best. The dream, without getting too ridiculous would be something like:

Gordon and Brisker look decent/good/legitimately promising along with Johnson continuing to be good. Morrow earns a long term contract and stays to go with Smith. For the D line I'm not sure what to hope for really, Gipson looking good would obviously be nice, Jones being solid... I don't see stars emerging to be honest but you can't get everything in one year. But if that does come off, we can look to 2023 to find a replacement for Jackson (even if he plays well he's not sticking around with that contract) and a difference maker or two on the defensive line, likely a 3T and edge unless Gipson really goes off (and even then, someone alongside him as Quinn needs replacing imo).

On offence you've got to expect we'll have a handle on Fields, Kmet and Mooney in a more #1 role. Then the line has players I like the look of in most spots with just RG being a bit of a question mark. Whitehair will quite likely need replacing as well but again, a clear picture of where we are going into 2023 will be good and will be great if 3/4 spots are filled with solid players. Plus Jones might show some flashes (not expecting much from a rookie receiver tho) and I really hope that Pringle, like Morrrow, does enough to justify a 2nd contact and he sticks around.

There's quite a lot to go right there but I don't think any of it is unreasonable. And if it ends up that way we've reloaded remarkably quickly and will be able to improve in both free agency and the draft, at least until we've got to pay Fields but I'm not going to worry about the Bears having to pay a QB until it happens, Christ, what a problem to have!

[o-pus #40 in B major]

Maybe this is a dumb question but does anyone have an opinion or news about Dazz Newsome?

[wab]

Does anyone have an opinion or news about Dazz Newsome?

Nope. By all accounts he's pretty far down the depth chart. Which is too bad, because I really liked him in the draft.

[crueltyabc]

Someone on CHGO said a pass hit Newsome in the chest yesterday and bounced into Brisker's hands so that's not encouraging

[Moriarty]

Maybe this is a dumb question but does anyone have an opinion or news about Dazz Newsome?

Opinions? Sure thing.


I didn't like the pick much.
He had respectable production. But short and slow really doesn't merit a draft pick, in my book.

Being a draft pick isn't going to help him any more, now that the people who took him are gone.
Also, the arrival of a number of guys who are going to make the roster and be returners really pounds his chances.
I'll set early odds at: 10% roster, 60% PS, 30% cut

[Heinz D.]

Had to go back to read what I'd responded to. What nailed it IMHO was the fist paragraph. I also believe the personal relationship Pace had with the McCaskey Family may have clouded GMcC perceptions at times. Polian merely lifted that veil.

I never thought the 2021 roster was a disaster but rather one of increasing costs vs declining returns. It was not in the long run gonna return the Bears to winning the NFCN and making deep playoff runs. With or without Pace there were some significant moves that were gonna need to be made but with Nagy still coaching would any of that have made a difference? I don't believe so.

I figured you were somewhere around that viewpoint...and kind of bypassed some of the other stuff he said.

Just messin' with ya, brother...

[Heinz D.]

For the rest you mention, how known are they?

I'd put forth that they're all well known enough to not actually end up being a WEAKNESS for the team. That's an important distinction when you're viewing the opinions of those saying the Bears will be in contention for the #1 pick, and those saying they'll be around .500, maybe a little better.

The roster is really raw. That's exciting, but also a little scary!

Well, yeah. There's a lot of really young guys that are gonna have to come through for the Bears to be a competitive team. No doubt about that.

How comfortable you are with that group of guys all depends on how you well feel Pace and Poles have done their jobs the last two years...

[Bearfacts]

Had to go back to read what I'd responded to. What nailed it IMHO was the fist paragraph. I also believe the personal relationship Pace had with the McCaskey Family may have clouded GMcC perceptions at times. Polian merely lifted that veil.

I never thought the 2021 roster was a disaster but rather one of increasing costs vs declining returns. It was not in the long run gonna return the Bears to winning the NFCN and making deep playoff runs. With or without Pace there were some significant moves that were gonna need to be made but with Nagy still coaching would any of that have made a difference? I don't believe so.

I figured you were somewhere around that viewpoint...and kind of bypassed some of the other stuff he said.

Just messin' with ya, brother...

[IE]

Maybe this is a dumb question but does anyone have an opinion or news about Dazz Newsome?

Opinions? Sure thing.


I didn't like the pick much.
He had respectable production. But short and slow really doesn't merit a draft pick, in my book.

Being a draft pick isn't going to help him any more, now that the people who took him are gone.
Also, the arrival of a number of guys who are going to make the roster and be returners really pounds his chances.
I'll set early odds at: 10% roster, 60% PS, 30% cut

I can't see Dazz making the team at all. I think they'll release him and some other team will probably take a flyer on him just to see what he's got. If they don't, maybe he'll be back but I even doubt that because this new regime's focus on speed, explosiveness and size to a certain extent all weigh against him. I think they're going to stock the PS with guys who have all the measurables, and try to develop them as football players. The caveat is this regime also are not slaves to consistency to the point where it hurts them - they also acknowledge there are guys who are just simply "good football players" where their play stands out on tape and you can then sort of ignore their measurables. But IMO those will be guys they think are good enough to contribute right away, and not development players.

I was sort of excited about that pick, and hoping he'd be a wily playmaker for the Bears. But under Nagy a lot of mysteries remain unsolved.

[Grizzled]

Sounding more and more like Getsy sees Jones as the Bears' Deebo. Put the ball in his hands as much as possible in a variety of situations (KR, WR, RB). Just hope he learns better how to run more than fly and slant patterns, which should come with time.

[Bearfacts]

It's a fairly crowded WR room that emphasizes speed. That alone may hurt Newsome's chances especially now that we're also loaded with return guys who also have far better speed. If he's strictly a slot guy he can't be ranked any higher than 3rd on the depth chart now and that leaves him behind both Jones and Pringle who aren't going anywhere. PS is probably his best shot at sticking.

[Grizzled]

Short and slow? Waddle 2.0 if he catches everything thrown his way.

The shortcomings of '21 are evident. Lack of depth on the DL, secondary, OL, WR, TE compounded by lack of cap space. An offensive system which was complete shit. Complete misuse of JF. Poles and Flus correcting these issues with a long term plan can't be anything but good.

[dave99]

Opinions? Sure thing.


I didn't like the pick much.
He had respectable production. But short and slow really doesn't merit a draft pick, in my book.

Being a draft pick isn't going to help him any more, now that the people who took him are gone.
Also, the arrival of a number of guys who are going to make the roster and be returners really pounds his chances.
I'll set early odds at: 10% roster, 60% PS, 30% cut

I can't see Dazz making the team at all. I think they'll release him and some other team will probably take a flyer on him just to see what he's got. If they don't, maybe he'll be back but I even doubt that because this new regime's focus on speed, explosiveness and size to a certain extent all weigh against him. I think they're going to stock the PS with guys who have all the measurables, and try to develop them as football players. The caveat is this regime also are not slaves to consistency to the point where it hurts them - they also acknowledge there are guys who are just simply "good football players" where their play stands out on tape and you can then sort of ignore their measurables. But IMO those will be guys they think are good enough to contribute right away, and not development players.

I was sort of excited about that pick, and hoping he'd be a wily playmaker for the Bears. But under Nagy a lot of mysteries remain unsolved.

Newsome's RAS Score.
This ranked 1955 out of 2499 WR from 1987 to 2021.

That is out of a possible 10

He is a try-hard, high energy guy and that will appeal to the coaches but is nowhere near the athletic profile they seem to want

This ranked 249 out of 2613 WR from 1987 to 2022.

[Stormtrooper]

We will have speed; as far as the other essential WR attributes(Route running, hands, etc) we will just have to hope for the best.

[Heinz D.]

This ranked 249 out of 2613 WR from 1987 to 2022.

Wow.

That's, like, MUCH higher than I would have anticipated, Yikes!

Surprised his vertical is so bad, as he's clearly a great athlete...

We will have speed; as far as the other essential WR attributes(Route running, hands, etc) we will just have to hope for the best.

He'll start out sort of unpolished (compared to a lot of other guys, anyway)--but that's fine, as Mooney will be the bell cow and Pringles hands, route running and whatnot are pretty solid.

That's a really wild avatar, btw.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Bears rookie WR Velus Jones on age concerns: 'Not going to stop me from running past people'

With an already thin wide receiver corps having lost Allen Robinson, the Chicago Bears needed to bolster the position group this offseason.

Thus, when they took just one wideout in the 2022 NFL Draft and it was a 25-year-old, the scrutiny quickly piled up.

For said 25-year-old Velus Jones, though, the doubters are not going to stop him -- nor will opposing defenders.

"People talk about it, but it don't matter," Jones told NFL Network's Adam Rank recently on The Sick Podcast when asked if he was surprised people seem to be so hung up about his age. "I'm a baller at the end of the day. I know what I can do. Me being 25 years [old] is not going to stop me from running past people to score touchdowns and stuff like that. I'm going to be fast for a long time, strong for a long time and making plays for a long time. So, it's really irrelevant."
...

Though Jones has more years on him than most rookies, he doesn't believe he has more wear and tear.

"And I can also say I never had any major injuries in college," Jones said. "Only thing I had was like a boxing fracture and a high ankle sprain. Never broke a bone, never had surgery in my life. So, honestly I have the body of like a 21 or 22 year old. Then some guys that have a lot of injuries in college and that you know are going to take punishment in the NFL, but I'm healthy as, like a baby horse. I'm healthy as all get outs. That really is irrelevant, you know people gonna talk about it. I only can control what I can control, so they can just stay tuned on that."

Stay tuned to see if the 25-year-old rookie proves the Bears right and the naysayers wrong.

Full article: https://www.nfl.com/news/bears-rookie-w ... running-pa

[Heinz D.]

From the article:

"With an already thin wide receiver corps having lost Allen Robinson, the Chicago Bears needed to bolster the position group this offseason.

Thus, when they took just one wideout in the 2022 NFL Draft and it was a 25-year-old, the scrutiny quickly piled up."




It just simply never stops, does it?

However will the Bears be able to replace 410 receiving yards, on 38 receptions, with a 10.8 YPC, and one TD?

HOW CAN THE BEARS POSSIBLY MAKE UP FOR THE LOSS OF ALLEN ROBINSON?

[dplank]

I think what keeps getting missed here is that last year was a major performance outlier for ARob. He’s a very talented player with a number of really good seasons under his belt, the Rams certainly believe he can still be a highly productive player. He got “Nagy’d” IMO and while he didn’t handle it well I expect his play to return to high level again.

I think a lot of folks keep making the same logical mistake, whether it be with ARob or Hicks or Mack. Here’s the problem:

We weren’t good last year, 6-11 and ranked terribly low on both sides of the ball. One of the reasons why that was the case was because of the injuries to those players. ARob a bit different than Hicks/Mack because on top of his injury and Covid he also wound up in Nagys doghouse. But the core issue remains. If we were going to reverse our fortunes with the same team, a key to doing that would be hoping for better health from our star players. That can’t happen if they are gone, so folks start looking for who might replace them.

Why that matters is simple. Is it reasonable to project Jones to replace ARobs statistical average, which again is what we’d need to see to see IMPROVEMENT from the team. You keep pointing to how easy it is to replace his terrible numbers from last year, and that’s true, but it’s also a meaningless target because if Jones does it and matches his numbers, we will still suck. What we need is major improvement, back to ARobs 1,000+ yard seasons of years past.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I'm a baller at the end of the day. I know what I can do. Me being 25 years [old] is not going to stop me from running past people to score touchdowns and stuff like that. I'm going to be fast for a long time, strong for a long time and making plays for a long time.

yes, this.